Military Review

Fifth fifteenth. The epic sixteenth?

38
One hundred years ago, one thousand nine hundred and sixteenth year was the year of the military and the pre-storm. The Russian Empire was in deep crisis, news they were not inspired from the fronts, but rumors about treason began to spread throughout the country. One hundred years later, the sixteenth year is also not easy. However, we will not be comparing with the past century, but with the recent past - zero and ten years, and especially with the year 2015.




The fifteenth year turned out to be difficult, although many gloomy forecasts did not come true. The first thing that did not come true is the prophecies about an ISIS invasion of Central Asia. ISIS lacked the strength to win even over the Afghan Taliban, which is gradually returning from non-existence. True, it should be noted that the current precarious situation does not guarantee that ISIS will not be able to gain a foothold in this region in the future.

The second of what did not come true-the attack of the Ukrainian security forces in the Donbass. After the disaster at Debaltseve, Kiev had to urgently restore its potential and succeeded only in late autumn.

A pleasant surprise was the demonstration of the updated capabilities of the Russian Navy. Cruise missiles "Caliber" launched at a great range, demonstrated that small ships of Russia have capabilities that in the West could boast before only large cruisers, destroyers and submarines armed with Tomahawk missiles. Judging by the comments in foreign media, for analytical centers this was an unpleasant surprise, and now the attention to the carriers of “Caliber” will become much more focused. It can be said that October 7 stories our fleet a new page has opened.

Fifth fifteenth. The epic sixteenth?


What came true from what was predicted a year ago? Well, first of all, it’s certainly a deepening socio-economic crisis, a rise in taxes and fees, and at the same time a drop in living standards. The sixteenth year will undoubtedly retain this trend.

The fifteenth year was also characterized by a generalized deterioration of the external situation around the Russian Federation, predicted in advance, and even at such recently calm directions as Kaliningrad and Karelia. Nearly the whole of the Baltic enclave of Russia, the NATO exercises did not cease throughout the year, and Finland presented a “gift” in the form of an actual rejection of the 1947 peace treaty of the year, which included, among other things, borders.

Realizing this, the leadership of the Russian Federation in the new year will strive to get out of the Syrian conflict with an acceptable political result in order to focus on defending their own borders. So, if nothing extraordinary happens, this front should cease to be relevant for Russia.



Predicting the timing of the next “hot” crises is a deliberately hopeless business, but some dates next year can still be called.



First of all, this is February of 2016, when the UN should finally make a decision on the Arctic, more precisely, on the Russian application for expansion of the territory. In connection with the events in Ukraine and the Middle East, this front was somehow forgotten, but the end of a multi-year epic for the first time became truly close. If the UN refuses to recognize this sector as Russian with sufficiently convincing evidence from our side, then the Russian Federation will most likely declare these seas to be Russian. Preparing for such a radical step was carried out the entire 2015 year, if someone followed the news from the region, he knows that Russia has deployed a network of military facilities on the Arctic islands, which is not even in the Crimea.



Secondly, a sharp exacerbation of the situation around the Crimea is planned for March-April. It was at this time that President Poroshenko instructed the National Security Council to develop a strategy for "de-occupation" of the peninsula. By this time, the Ukrainian authorities are hoping to finally resolve the issue with the Donbas, through the implementation of the “Minsk agreements” or a direct military invasion. Kiev is also pushing the economic situation for the war, which in the sixteenth year in Ukraine will be even harder than in Russia.



Thirdly, 18 September 2016 of the year in the Russian Federation will be a single voting day: local elections and elections to the State Duma. It is no secret that the voting will take place in conditions of accumulating fatigue and discontent. If the government’s economic experiments continue, toughening political demands will become an irreversible trend. It can be expected that new forces and new ideas will increasingly emerge on the political arena.

2015 year was largely for us the epoch of epoch, the end of the epoch of relative stability of the tenth years, which by and large began not with 2010, but in 2011 with elections to the State Duma and the events accompanying them. 2016 year definitely bring the features of a completely different mood. The main topic will be the search for new ways of development of the country, new benchmarks, new faces.

We, the citizens of Russia, hope for the best and remember the golden rule, which is true both for an individual and for a great power: "The admission of mistakes is the way to start correcting them." The main thing is that the recognition happened on time.

Happy New Year!
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 31 December 2015 07: 25 New
    +6
    A pleasant surprise was the demonstration of the updated capabilities of the Russian Navy. Long-range Caliber cruise missiles demonstrated that the small ships of Russia have the capabilities that only large cruisers, destroyers and submarines armed with Tomahawk missiles could boast in the West before.


    So that such pleasant surprises always accompany us and our aircraft! soldier
    1. Enot-poloskun
      Enot-poloskun 31 December 2015 07: 57 New
      +7
      For me, the outgoing year was not easy. But - successful and interesting.

      I look forward to 2016 with new hopes.

      Happy New Year!

      I wish you all happiness, health, success and good luck! And also - prosperity!
      1. Vend
        Vend 31 December 2015 09: 52 New
        +2
        Fifth fifteenth. The epic sixteenth?
        And the crucial seventeenth. The history of the 20 century is repeated, only with troubles for others, and not for Russia.
      2. SSR
        SSR 31 December 2015 10: 36 New
        +2
        Quote: The same Lech
        Well, first of all, this is of course a deepening social and economic crisis, an increase in taxes and fees, and at the same time a drop in living standards. The sixteenth year will undoubtedly continue this trend.


        Chur you for such a forecast ... although I expect any dirty tricks from the MEDVEDEV government and our State Duma in bundles of inventing and stamping new taxes ... I’ll definitely go to the next election to vote against this whole fraternity ... it became across the throat.
        But still, we hope that our enemies will improve our lives in spite of everything, and my fellow citizens wish the same.

        And we are really looking forward to export duties on raw materials. ((((Otherwise to kayuk, unfortunately, Manturova for bitches.
  2. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 31 December 2015 07: 32 New
    +6
    And then it will become more difficult for us, because the economy and politics are already closely intertwined, and the malr that we do not have in the government an economist who can influence the situation in the economy, now it will take a talented and intelligent economist-politician to solve both internal problems in the economy and political constituent. and we have a step-daughter economy for ministers.
  3. Same lech
    Same lech 31 December 2015 07: 32 New
    +6
    Well, first of all, this is of course a deepening social and economic crisis, an increase in taxes and fees, and at the same time a drop in living standards. The sixteenth year will undoubtedly continue this trend.


    Chur you for such a forecast ... although I expect any dirty tricks from the MEDVEDEV government and our State Duma in bundles of inventing and stamping new taxes ... I’ll definitely go to the next election to vote against this whole fraternity ... it became across the throat.
    But still, we hope that our enemies will improve our lives in spite of everything, and my fellow citizens wish the same.
  4. Alexander S.
    Alexander S. 31 December 2015 08: 25 New
    +3
    Well, well ... let's see .. who will win the elections to the State Duma. there are only two options. or the people will be dull (then do not care what happens next) .. or the elections will be rigged (a real gift for any bulk)
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 31 December 2015 08: 51 New
      +5
      Quote: Alexander S.
      who will win the State Duma elections

      United Russia will win, because the authorities need full support for their ideas in the legislative body
    2. -Traveller-
      -Traveller- 31 December 2015 09: 47 New
      +6
      there are doubts who will win?
      Do you seriously take this performance at face value?
  5. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 31 December 2015 09: 10 New
    +3
    In fact, 2015 was a good year. See yourself soon.
    1. Koshak
      Koshak 31 December 2015 09: 50 New
      +7
      That is, it was still a bright streak ??? laughing
  6. kolyhalovs
    kolyhalovs 31 December 2015 09: 59 New
    +2
    If the UN refuses to recognize this sector as Russian, with enough convincing evidence on our part, the Russian Federation will most likely declare these seas Russian.


    Yes, no one will announce anything. Because if we have a force there that cannot be interrupted by another force, these seas will be ours no matter what the UN decides there. And you don’t have to announce anything. Now there is a bargain to document this state of affairs, that's all.
  7. Belousov
    Belousov 31 December 2015 10: 22 New
    +2
    The election will be interesting. But not from the point of view of the result, here it is precisely known in advance, but from the point of view of the opposition. Moreover, the real opposition, not pocket. Although at the moment we have any opposition pocket. That clowns from the Communist Party, LDPR, SR, that other clowns patronized by the American embassy. But we, unfortunately, have no real opposition ...
    1. DenZ
      DenZ 1 January 2016 16: 41 New
      +1
      But we, unfortunately, have no real opposition ...

      And here for me so fortunately. What would be from what she was? Neither the current government felt calm nor the opposition. ALL TIME WOULD BE TENSION, AND WHEN THE OPPOSITION DOESN’T exist, then tension is only when the main power finally leaves (unfortunately, in Russia this is usually not the best or even troubled time, but they do not choose their homeland).
  8. fa2998
    fa2998 31 December 2015 12: 17 New
    +2
    Quote: sa-ag
    United Russia will win, because the authorities need full support for their ideas in the legislative body

    What epithets have been chosen - “milestone, epoch-making”, something happens every year that interferes with living humanely. That Ukraine and sanctions, then Syria with terrorists something will happen again, to distract people from internal problems .
    And in the elections, it’s easy to “win” EP before, so people didn’t go to the polls, the “opposition” was tired of seeing them only in the election campaign, the gunpowder was damp! And thousands of ballots remained clean at the polls, do whatever you want! NEW FORCE IS NEEDED ( but not changing the label), so that people would go to the polls! Although they’re summing up in Moscow, don’t vote but Churkin will calculate “as it should”. what sad hiRS- but you have to try!
    1. Megatron
      Megatron 31 December 2015 17: 45 New
      +2


      Yes, essentially no one to choose from.
    2. DenZ
      DenZ 1 January 2016 16: 45 New
      -5
      ! NEEDS NEW FORCE (and not changing the label)

      No new force is needed (I mean exactly the present moment) "They do not change horses at the crossing." The old force is still kind of like a power yet. Nothing to rock the boat.
      1. Megatron
        Megatron 1 January 2016 23: 45 New
        +5
        What is in power? Let go of new embezzlers, or introduce new quitrents?
        1. DenZ
          DenZ 2 January 2016 14: 38 New
          0
          What is in power? Let go of new embezzlers, or introduce new quitrents?

          No, not that. You shouldn’t let such eccentrics into Bolotnaya Square anymore, but only allow them to show their cowardice on the net. For 20 years, liberal financiers have been unhindered and robbed you of prosperity in a year or two, and bloodless, it’s not like that, my friend, who no matter whether it was in power but the hour is not even and they will get to the Central Bank, there are already progress.
          1. tokens3
            tokens3 2 January 2016 14: 49 New
            -1
            DenZ
            No, not that. Such eccentrics like you should not be allowed to enter Bolotnaya Square anymore, but only allow them to show their cowardice on the net.

            So Bolotnaya was generally in the conditions of economic stability. A show for which they simply spent a lot of money. Money wasted.
            In a crisis, apparently on the Swamp will be allowed for coupons laughing
            Is there enough for all coupons ... this is a big question.
          2. Megatron
            Megatron 2 January 2016 16: 07 New
            +1
            And in what I am not right specifically, explain?
            Our "opposition" is no less disgusting to me than the current government.
            1. DenZ
              DenZ 2 January 2016 17: 34 New
              -1
              And in what I am not right specifically, explain?

              Yes, even in the elementary fact that you can’t decide. You are not with those and not with those, and this is even worse, that is, as if not an enemy and not a friend, and it is not clear what to expect from you tomorrow. Such are the most dangerous. Decide how you may be; or have generosity to forgive the current government for its mistakes (and they certainly are), or be in the camp of the opposition (in the form in which it now exists). Now you go offended by all the authorities. Have something to help the authorities - help, but this is how "Our" opposition to me "is no less disgusting than the current government" - this, sorry, is not constructive, it's about nothing.
              1. Megatron
                Megatron 2 January 2016 19: 02 New
                +4
                In the current situation, I accept Putin as the least, inevitable evil.

                We do not have an opposition, but simply a bugbear for the sewer of popular discontent.
                All these bulk, just clowns, like a girly, to distract people from internal problems. Real enemies and the most terrible liberals are sitting in and around our government.
                1. DenZ
                  DenZ 2 January 2016 20: 12 New
                  +1
                  In the current situation, I accept Putin as the least, inevitable evil.
                  I do not agree with this. Nevertheless, he personally is not evil (although he is not without certain shortcomings (and who without them)).
                  Real enemies and the most terrible liberals are sitting in and around our government.
                  But I agree with this 100%. Putin’s circle is somehow in the shadow of him and in this shadow some too nasty movements are sometimes made.
                  1. Megatron
                    Megatron 2 January 2016 22: 19 New
                    +1
                    But I agree with this 100%. Putin’s circle is somehow in the shadow of him and in this shadow some too nasty movements are sometimes made.


                    Do you think that, as always, "the king doesn’t know what bad boyars do"?
                    Putin is the flesh from the flesh of those same liberalists, the old Yeltsin circle, maybe a little more with a human face than they are, but this does not change the essence by and large.

                    But domestic politics is worse than Yeltsin’s. Complete enslavement and enslavement of people is coming.
                    1. DenZ
                      DenZ 4 January 2016 23: 23 New
                      +2
                      But domestic politics is worse than Yeltsin’s. Complete enslavement and enslavement of people is coming.

                      Enough already howl in the end, you are our enslaved, me Nobody personally enslaves me. Yes, it’s become shit, but did you think that everything in life is always only better and better? Read what happened in the country in the 30s of the 20th century and calm down, if you don’t calm down, look carefully what is happening in Europe now, is everything smooth? The internal situation in the country is only a reflection of the country's external role in the world.
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  9. Flinky
    Flinky 31 December 2015 13: 33 New
    0
    It seems that the celebration of NG has not yet begun, and Kabardin, it seems, already has a hangover ...
    1. PHANTOM-AS
      PHANTOM-AS 2 January 2016 16: 21 New
      +3
      Quote: Flinky
      It seems that the celebration of NG has not yet begun, and Kabardin, it seems, already has a hangover ...

      We have the whole country with a hangover, some from a duroscope, some from speeches.
      With the coming of all members of the forum.
  10. TOR2
    TOR2 31 December 2015 13: 59 New
    12
    September 18, 2016 in the Russian Federation will be a single voting day: local elections and elections to the State Duma. It's no secret that voting will take place in the conditions of accumulating fatigue and discontent
    1. Disant
      Disant 31 December 2015 14: 41 New
      +4
      but vice versa?
    2. DenZ
      DenZ 1 January 2016 16: 48 New
      0
      We still need to live up to September. We’ll see there. There is nothing to escalate, and all this is clear. It is the habit of liberals to savor such topics. No need to be like them.
    3. The comment was deleted.
  11. Megatron
    Megatron 31 December 2015 17: 38 New
    +7
    Again swearing at the bear, the government and the rest.
    And the tsar, as always, does not know what bad boyars are doing?
    Putin’s domestic policy is even worse than Yeltsin’s.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Starfish
      Starfish 1 January 2016 13: 46 New
      +4
      “It's no secret that the vote will be held in the conditions of accumulating fatigue and discontent. If the government’s economic experiments continue,” “Again swearing at the bear, the government and others.
      And the king, as always, is not aware of what bad boyars are doing? "

      for most, this is a taboo topic.

      "Putin’s domestic policy is even worse than Yeltsin’s."

      it’s hard to say whether it’s worse or better, but the fact that it is a direct continuation of Yeltsin’s course with some tactical deviations is a fact.
  12. datur
    datur 31 December 2015 19: 33 New
    0
    PERSONALLY MY OPINION-ENEMY WILL NOT WAIT !!!! wassat angry drinks drinks
    1. Megatron
      Megatron 2 January 2016 22: 30 New
      +1
      Why are you doing this? In each topic, urakraki, and even with big stars in the case, do not yell at the topic of "but pasaran."
  13. wei
    wei 31 December 2015 19: 57 New
    +3
    Boundary, Mythic, Psychologically significant - the revolution has a beginning; the revolution has no end. laughing Life is a struggle until death ...
    Happy New Year everyone drinks
  14. Dimon19661
    Dimon19661 3 January 2016 05: 34 New
    +2
    Strange as it may seem, this year was better for me than the previous one. We again began to pay wages on time, the company got work (construction and mining). We are building a new terminal in Port Vostochny, we are mining coal. I hope that the economy will start to recover slowly in 2016.
  15. Dmitry Potapov
    Dmitry Potapov 4 January 2016 07: 44 New
    +1
    Quote: kolyhalovs
    If the UN refuses to recognize this sector as Russian, with enough convincing evidence on our part, the Russian Federation will most likely declare these seas Russian.


    Yes, no one will announce anything. Because if we have a force there that cannot be interrupted by another force, these seas will be ours no matter what the UN decides there. And you don’t have to announce anything. Now there is a bargain to document this state of affairs, that's all.

    I think there is no bargaining, how many bases did Russia reanimate in the Arctic? It seems like 27, GDP will simply put everyone before the fact
  16. Klos
    Klos 4 January 2016 10: 07 New
    +2
    Russia has never had any easy times. But our people live. And flew into space and Nazism won. And it will live on, no matter what!
  17. Kombrig
    Kombrig 4 January 2016 12: 20 New
    +1
    It seems that the next stage of the confrontation will unfold, indeed, around the Arctic shelves the question is whether there will be enough strength not only to secure the Arctic for itself, but also to keep it?
    1. Awaz
      Awaz 4 January 2016 12: 49 New
      +2
      there is more a legal question than a military one. If you are smart enough to legally substantiate, then everything will be our way. BUT and if it does not succeed, then at the moment there is no one to especially hinder. They won’t go for military provocations, if only the Norwegians, but Svalbard already had a shit anyway ...