Military Review

Kurdish question and the prospect of a civil war in Turkey

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In Turkey, activists revived the Kurdistan Workers Party. In response to the actions of the Turkish government, party representatives announced the termination of a two-year truce. The Kurds demand self-government in the southeastern provinces, threatening Ankara with a real civil war. Now in the country torn apart by strife, there is a "anti-terrorist operation", and up to ten thousand police and military men are participating in it.


Kurdish question and the prospect of a civil war in Turkey


As reported by 27 December "Fund of Strategic Culture" with reference to the Ekurd Daily, in Turkey, with new force, clashes of the army and internal security forces with the Kurdish population of the south-east of the country flare up. In the city of Diyarbakir there is a street confrontation with army units and police units: "... the echo from the shots and explosions can be heard for miles from the city limits."

Four cities in the southeast (Diyarbakir, Jizre, Silopi and Nusaybin) are in a state of siege. A state of emergency has been introduced, a curfew is in effect.

“Anti-terrorist” operation is carried out with a large concentration of units of the regular army, with the involvement of heavy armored vehicles. In the regions where the protests were suppressed, the army engaged a 10-thousandth grouping of troops.

Over the past six months, over a hundred Kurdish women and children have died as a result of the actions of the army and police in south-eastern Turkey.

Kurdish sources call the events “cultural genocide” and “ethnic cleansing” against the Kurds. The anger of the Kurds has reached a level beyond which the development of the “Syrian scenario” in Turkey - the civil war and the actual disintegration of the country.

As noted by Sergey Manukov ("Expert Online"), the Kurds continue to demand self-government for the southeastern provinces and threaten civil war if the authorities do not cease hostilities.

Interestingly, the Turkish government does not pay attention to the calls of Washington and Brussels about the need to organize negotiations with the Kurds. Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the other day that the government will continue to systematically destroy the militants of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Erdogan calls them “terrorists”: “Our security forces methodically, one by one, destroy members of a terrorist organization. After their complete destruction, we will bind the wounds and begin a new phase of relations with the population of the southeast. ”

“The situation has reached a critical level,” the American diplomat quoted the Wall Street Journal, asking not to give his last name. “It’s not clear how this will end.”

As the analyst recalls, the leaders of the pro-Kurdish parties represented in the Turkish parliament turned to Russia for help. Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of the Democratic People’s Party, the country's second-largest opposition party, held talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. It is known that in an interview with the agency “Firat” he accused the ruling Justice and Development Party of conducting repressions.

Some Russian observers draw parallels not with Syria, but with the Donbas.

“According to some estimates, up to 20 million Kurds live in Turkey. However, in South-Eastern Anatolia (Southeast Asia) they live compactly. More than 60% of this region are Kurds, and about a quarter of the country's Kurds live in total (much like Donbass), ”writes Ivan Zatsarin ("But").

And one more similarity: the Kurds in the region demand Ankara self-government. And the government probably fears that autonomous status will become a prologue to the proclamation of independence. Bottom line: instead of self-government, the Kurds got a sweep.

As for Demirtash’s visit to Moscow, his brother participated in the defense of the city of Kobani against the IS militants. Turkey refused to intervene in the situation, in fact, pushing the Kurds, who had watched the IG cracking down on the tribesmen, on the “war path”. Now Turkish Kurds are fighting Islamists, and what will they do next?

The analyst recalls that Demirtas "officially" came to Moscow to establish a political dialogue and to open the Society of Kurdish businessmen: the fact is that, as citizens of Turkey, the Kurds came under Russian sanctions on general grounds. “Almost simultaneously with the visit of the Turkish politician in the government, the activity of manual regulation of the sanctions regime is noted,” writes a columnist. “It can be assumed that the installation arrived as much as possible to remove the Kurdish business from the sanctions”.

Known and informal assumptions - for example, that the main goal of Demirtaş is a request for Russia's help to the Syrian Kurds.

Experts of the American Stratfor think tank believe that Russia knows: by supporting the Kurds, it weakens Ankara. According to analysts, which leads PanARMENIAN.NetThe participation of the “Democratic Union” in the negotiations may eventually lead to the creation of Kurdish autonomy in the north of Syria. And this autonomy will be "an excellent bastion for the preparation of shares of the Kurdistan Workers' Party."

Stratfor recalls that Russia has a long-standing relationship with the Kurdistan Workers' Party: in the 1970s, the PKK was started as a Marxist-Leninist organization; later, in 1990, she had a representative office in the Russian Federation, and her leader Abdullah Ocalan, after being expelled from Syria, came to Russia twice, trying to find refuge.

Today, Ankara should be borne in mind at the same time several likely complications. Strengthening the support of pro-Kurdish political forces in Turkey may raise the issue of Kurdish autonomy, which, if it comes to that, is able to support the PKK in actions in Turkey.

As for Russia, Turkey does not succeed in smoothing out the tense relations: Ankara does not want to apologize, and Moscow is pressing back with sanctions. And now it can also push the Kurdish issue.

In any case, let us add from ourselves, from the political cooperation with the Kurds and the “manual regulation” of the sanctions regime addressed to Turkey, the relations between Moscow and Ankara are not warm. The “Kurdish card” in the hands of the Kremlin will definitely provoke, in one way or another, the protests and criticism of the Turkish authorities.

However, already caused.

When Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov received in Russia the head of the Turkish pro-Kurdish Democratic Party of the People, Selahattin Demirtas, from Ankara came a shout from Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who "condemned" the visit of the politician. The most serious words were chosen for condemnation.

During the visit to Moscow, reminds RIA News"Demirtaş stated that Turkey should not have shot down the Russian Su-24 and that it was necessary to look for ways out of the crisis in Russian-Turkish relations.

Upon learning of this audacious statement, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called it a "betrayal."

“What he called the wrong decision to shoot down an airplane is a disgrace and betrayal,” said Davutoglu. “We in the (Syrian) Kobani helped our (Kurdish) brothers, our same duty is to help the Turkmen in Bayyrbujak.”

Well, about how Turkey “helped” the “brothers” in Kobani, you can not tell, we add in conclusion. Turkish military simply did not participate in the battles for the city. The Kurds themselves, who fought with the militants of “IG”, note that Ankara adhered to the “policy of non-intervention” in the region, and even secretly supported “IG”. Since then, R.T. Erdogan’s reputation in the Kurdish regions of Turkey has dropped below the baseboard. Davutoglu’s statements about helping the “brothers” can only provoke evil laughter in the Kurds.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
34 comments
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  1. Magic archer
    Magic archer 30 December 2015 06: 29 New
    +9
    While Erdogan is profitable for the West, no one sees any Kurdish problem. As soon as you click on the Turks, the Kurdish question pops up immediately. The whole nation is a bargaining chip in a dirty political game ....
    1. Al_oriso
      Al_oriso 30 December 2015 09: 06 New
      +4
      The Kurds are fighting both Turkey and the Islamic State, as Turkey equips the Islamic State fighters to suppress the Kurds, who were between two fires (at least two).
      At the moment, the Kurds, more than ever, need help.
      1. guzik007
        guzik007 30 December 2015 09: 31 New
        +6
        At the moment, the Kurds, more than ever, need help.
        -------------------------------------------------- -
        It is on these scales that we need to put our feather.
        1. Gomunkul
          Gomunkul 30 December 2015 12: 10 New
          +1
          It is on these scales that we need to put our feather.
          Judging by the information from the article already put:
          “Almost at the same time as the Turkish politician’s visit, the government has been active in manually regulating the sanctions regime,” the observer writes. “It can be assumed that the installation has arrived to remove the Kurdish business from the sanctions as much as possible.”
    2. The black
      The black 30 December 2015 10: 42 New
      +3
      It is beneficial for the West that neither Erdogan nor the Kurds defeat each other. They need a smoldering conflict to keep Ishak Pasha in a short rein ...
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 30 December 2015 06: 30 New
    +3
    Kurds demand self-government in the southeastern provinces, threatening Ankara with a real civil war.... About two days ago, in the internet, the info passed, the Kurdish areas where there are no Turkish troops proclaimed autonomy .. the truth is how accurate this information is ..
  3. Utlan
    Utlan 30 December 2015 06: 45 New
    +3
    It is necessary to help the Kurds with a "humane" - grenade launchers, MANPADS, machine guns, etc.
    1. Cap.Morgan
      Cap.Morgan 30 December 2015 07: 12 New
      +4
      USSR helped the Kurds.
      I remember in the 90s there were still press articles about Kurdish bases in Russia, something like educational institutions or rest houses, where they could sit out and heal. So everything new is well forgotten old.
      1. plotnikov561956
        plotnikov561956 30 December 2015 14: 59 New
        0
        The Kurdish question ... this is a parody of a fun company where everyone loves to fight and everything else in the process fades into the background. Having found agreement between themselves, the Kurds would have had their own state for a long time. So they have what they have ... they are fighting among themselves .. and with the others, too, who come to hand. And those who are not interested in cooling down this process
  4. Klos
    Klos 30 December 2015 07: 00 New
    +2
    If they can’t solve the problem at the negotiating table, they will solve the problem using weapons ...
  5. igorka357
    igorka357 30 December 2015 07: 05 New
    +3
    Erdogan or something, it feels like he was given the order to immerse Turkey in chaos .. I won’t be surprised if the situation is about the same way as in Ukraine!
  6. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 30 December 2015 07: 28 New
    +2
    I am for the Turkish Republic of Kurdistan as an independent state! By the way, it’s time to think about returning his name to Constantinople.
    1. -Traveller-
      -Traveller- 30 December 2015 09: 27 New
      +4
      yeah, the Greeks of Constantinople, the Armenians of Ararat, the Kurds independence, women flowers, children ice cream.
      you are funny, geopolitics.
      1. V.ic
        V.ic 30 December 2015 10: 44 New
        +5
        Quote: -Traveller-
        yeah, the Greeks of Constantinople, the Armenians of Ararat, the Kurds independence, women flowers, children ice cream.

        Forgot to add: land = peasants, water = sailors, peace = peace, war = pipiska.
      2. Your friend
        Your friend 30 December 2015 14: 14 New
        +1
        Quote: -Traveller-
        yeah, the Greeks of Constantinople, the Armenians of Ararat, the Kurds independence, women flowers, children ice cream.
        you are funny, geopolitics.

        Armenians already have Ararat, three stars, four stars ...
    2. The comment was deleted.
  7. Evil 55
    Evil 55 30 December 2015 07: 41 New
    +2
    Sow the wind, reap the storm ... Looks like there is no similar axiom in the Turkish language, or Erdogan was just born frightened ...
    1. Akuzenka
      Akuzenka 31 December 2015 18: 27 New
      0
      They have such a saying. It’s just that he obeys all orders of Fashington, because he holds it for .... and for the wallet, and for such politicians it is the MOST sensitive organ. All the same, it will be merged, without options.
  8. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 30 December 2015 08: 01 New
    +4
    And now it can also pressure the Kurdish question.

    Why not. There is an opportunity to push, you need to push. And Russia has really had good relations with the PKK since the days of the USSR. It is a sin not to use this in this situation.
  9. Same lech
    Same lech 30 December 2015 08: 22 New
    +1
    Experts from the US-based brain trust Stratfor believe Russia knows: by supporting the Kurds, it weakens Ankara.


    And rightly so .... ERDOGAN is dumb as a cork for he did not calculate the consequences of the downing of the SU-24 ... megalomania closed his mind.

    Moreover, I remember what help the Turks rendered to the terrorists in the Chechen campaigns in the Caucasus.
    1. -Traveller-
      -Traveller- 30 December 2015 09: 57 New
      -1
      Erdogan is cunning, and not stupid, otherwise he would not have stayed in power for so many years. Turkish politics is not like ours, where power is inherited on New Year's Eve, and the parliamentary opposition is just extras, not very convincing depicting political parties.

      Chechen support? so it is Alaverdi for supporting одcalan. bash on bash. what to take offense?
  10. evil partisan
    evil partisan 30 December 2015 08: 29 New
    +4
    It would be necessary to throw firewood into the fire - to lose a couple of trains with weapons on the Syrian-Turkish border winked, and lose so well that only Turkish Kurds would find them repeat .
  11. Silhouette
    Silhouette 30 December 2015 08: 42 New
    -3
    Will the Kurds ruin Turkey? That is the question. And what is formed instead of it? You must first think about it. I have not met such forecasts yet. We poorly know Turkey and its internal contradictions. Kurds can lead to even more radical Islamists in Turkey and the creation of structures worse than the Taliban, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. And then what?
    1. -Traveller-
      -Traveller- 30 December 2015 09: 47 New
      +3
      will not be able to. Kurds have been under the Turks for 1000 years, and never vice versa, they are obviously a weak side.
      until this conflict escalated from a conflict between the government and the RPK into interethnic, thanks to the efforts of both parties. The leadership of the RPK understands that if we cross the line, then the Turks may well repeat their experience, the 100th anniversary of which the Armenians celebrated this year, and millions of Kurds will have the choice to either die or flee. and the government is not interested in such development since such a massive massacre will inevitably throw the economy decades back.
      therefore, the RPK does not carry out terrorist attacks against civilians, and the army does not shoot civilians. Of course, there are mistakes, but everyone understands that they are not intentional.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  12. Alisher
    Alisher 30 December 2015 08: 44 New
    +2
    In a similar article on "However, an interesting afterword" It will be difficult for Russians without the resorts of Antalya, the Turkish Minister of Tourism believes. In light of all the above, it would be nice if these resorts survive in principle. "
  13. gergi
    gergi 30 December 2015 09: 26 New
    +2
    Erdogan is not stupid, but mean. The situation in Eurasia is artificially destabilizing. Exceptional foul.
    1. guzik007
      guzik007 30 December 2015 09: 43 New
      +3
      Erdogan is not stupid, but mean.
      --------------------------
      Not stupid, speak? Hmm. Which side to look at. A sober and cold politician must first of all calculate the consequences of his decisions 3-4 steps ahead.
      The politician, whose actions are primarily subject to base emotions, is already a half-political corpse. The Turkish urkagan has chosen his own path, all that remains is to push him a little closer to the abyss, preferably with little blood; But if it doesn’t work out, then you need to play the Kurdish card in full. Of course, many simple people will suffer adversity. But for us it will be a huge plus-Europe itself will creep on its knees, forgetting both kaklov and his petty insults.
      1. -Traveller-
        -Traveller- 30 December 2015 10: 00 New
        -3
        Europe creeps on her knees ... Russia rises from her knees ...
        but what about the elbows, why can’t I hear anything about them?
        1. INTER
          INTER 30 December 2015 14: 02 New
          +1
          Quote: -Traveller-
          The Turkish Urkagan has chosen his own path, it remains only to push him a little closer to the abyss, preferably with little blood; But if it doesn’t work out, then you need to play the Kurdish card in full. Of course, many simple people will suffer adversity

          It is necessary to take into account one nuance, even after playing any card it is necessary to make sure that the region does not flare up, it is necessary if it is possible to put a pro-Russian candidate at the head of state. Give the Kurds autonomy within Turkey and the sheep are safe and the wolves are full.
  14. Belousov
    Belousov 30 December 2015 10: 18 New
    +1
    It would be necessary to illuminate in more detail the relationship between the Syrian Kurds and the Assad family, and from ancient times. After all, they were not going smoothly there either. And no matter how it happened, helping the Kurds, including and Syrian, Russia would not have laid a time bomb. As we see from history, any autonomy strives for independence, but here it is still superimposed on bloody everyday life.
  15. gozmosZh
    gozmosZh 30 December 2015 11: 12 New
    +1
    Quote: -Traveller-
    yeah, the Greeks of Constantinople, the Armenians of Ararat, the Kurds independence, women flowers, children ice cream.
    you are funny, geopolitics.

    forgot to mention about Cyprus.
  16. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 30 December 2015 11: 38 New
    +2
    Repost

    Erdogan is a fake savior, the Saudis have a fake coalition, the Americans have a fake operation against igils. It's just a disgrace.
  17. Goldmitro
    Goldmitro 30 December 2015 13: 07 New
    +1
    The Kurds themselves, who fought with the IG fighters, note that Ankara adhered to a "policy of non-interference" in the region, and even secretly supported the IG.

    All our patient attempts to establish almost friendly relations with Turkey, forgetting about the confrontation in the past, ended vilely with a shot down by a Russian plane and the shooting of our troops, and this, not counting the thousands of wiles and pods committed and constantly committed by the Turkish ruling elite against the new Russia, such as support and treatment of Chechen bandits, the spread and support of radical Islamists in Russia, etc. It turns out that the ruling elite of Turkey did not FORGET anything from history and did not forgive anything for Russia and in one way or another yearns for revenge! So there is only one conclusion for Russia - as they say, “Carthage must be destroyed”: by discarding the politicians, it is necessary to deprive the ruling elite of Turkey of even the opportunity to think about revenge against Russia and the strong support of the Kurds (along with other measures) will be very good contribute to this goal!
  18. Weyland
    Weyland 30 December 2015 14: 33 New
    +1
    Selahattin Demirtash, leader of the Democratic Party of the People, the second largest opposition party in the country, held talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

    Hope to hear soon: "the guard is tired ... " (last name "Demirtash" in Russian is translated as "Zheleznyak" wink )
  19. su163
    su163 30 December 2015 16: 16 New
    +1
    Quote: guzik007
    At the moment, the Kurds, more than ever, need help.
    -------------------------------------------------- -
    It is on these scales that we need to put our feather.


    That's for sure .. I remember in my childhood there was a book Kurdish folk tales.
  20. maxim1981
    maxim1981 30 December 2015 17: 14 New
    +1
    Kurds need support from Russia
  21. chelovektapok
    chelovektapok 30 December 2015 18: 17 New
    +1
    Judging by "indirect", when the Turks in communication just go away from the Kurdish question ..... If everything was good for them, then the Ottomans would boast. Since there is nothing special to say, then ... oops in this matter for them and the “trump card” are these Kurds against the Turks, who “beat” a lot in the game. Who will play on time, he will withdraw the bank. Or aggravate the position of the “Young Turks” on the next horse.
  22. Severok01
    Severok01 30 December 2015 23: 24 New
    0
    I give the Kurds Russia already and helps tightly, but if not, then this outbreak can be fooled ...
  23. Orionvit
    Orionvit 31 December 2015 02: 30 New
    0
    Quote: guzik007
    At the moment, the Kurds, more than ever, need help.
    -------------------------------------------------- -
    It is on these scales that we need to put our feather.

    But it would be good if they could arrange a maidan, as in Ukraine, let them try democracies. Delay with New Russia? the time has not come yet. Everything has already been calculated, and we will be notified only in fact.
  24. Orionvit
    Orionvit 31 December 2015 02: 48 New
    0
    Quote: plotnikov561956
    The Kurdish question ... this is a parody of a fun company where everyone loves to fight and everything else in the process fades into the background. Having found agreement between themselves, the Kurds would have had their own state for a long time. So they have what they have ... they are fighting among themselves .. and with the others, too, who come to hand. And those who are not interested in cooling down this process

    Have Western Ukrainians had their own state for a long time? Same. Ukrainians and Russians are fighting among themselves. Is that not enough for you? And by the way, I have it next to you, if you are from Russia, you may not know. Zadolbali these ethnic issues. Look for those who benefit from it, the Kurds will work out, but not when they will not be friends. Like all Asians.
  25. Lone wolf
    Lone wolf 31 December 2015 04: 50 New
    0
    Experts from the US-based brain trust Stratfor believe Russia knows: by supporting the Kurds, it weakens Ankara. According to analysts quoted by PanARMENIAN.Net, the participation of the Democratic Union in the negotiations could ultimately lead to the creation of Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria. And this autonomy will be "an excellent bastion for preparing the shares of the Kurdistan Workers Party"
    .... It’s good that there were still understandable people who know that twice two is four, not six like Erdogan’s
  26. trantor
    trantor 31 December 2015 09: 40 New
    0
    It seems that these are not the same “tomatoes alone”.