Military Review

Will the first day of 2016 be the first “day without Minsk-2”?

Judging by how events develop, it will become. The fact that those who are pulling the strings of dolls ruling Ukraine are not interested in the prolongation of these agreements is clear and understandable.

Will the first day of 2016 be the first “day without Minsk-2”?

What is only the recent statement of the European Commission on December 21.

Russia was accused of disrupting the tripartite talks between Russia, Ukraine and the European Commission on the association of Kiev with the EU. And naturally it goes against the Minsk agreements.

“Throughout the negotiation process, the EU was attentive to Russia's claims and put forward proposals for practical solutions to problems without amending the DCFTA (Free Trade Area Agreement). However, Russia put forward demands that were not justified or could not be accepted, as they did not comply with WTO or EU standards. ”

"Moscow’s decision to suspend the free trade zone with Ukraine is political pressure and contradicts the rules of the tripartite group negotiation set forth in the Minsk agreements", - said European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström.

At the same time, neither the European Commissioner nor anyone else in the commission argued their position and did not specify what they had in mind, since the Minsk agreements did not concern trade issues between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in general.

For a sober-minded person, it is clear that all this passes under the category of political insanity. But the reality is that if a decision is made to blame for the imminent cancellation of the Minsk Agreements to be placed on Russia, then any excuse will do. Even so attracted.

For the purity of the experiment, I once again reread these agreements. Not a word about trade relations between Russia and Ukraine. And in general, the Minsk agreements affect anything, but not relations between Russia and Ukraine. But who cares at all? The main thing is to accuse publicly, and then who will understand further?

But in the Minsk agreements there is, among others, another interesting point. Among the main points on the cease-fire, the withdrawal of weapons, the exchange of prisoners, the reform of the constitution, there is an item on the transfer of border control to Ukraine.

Stop. Control of Ukraine over the border. Just a week ago, the head of the State Border Service of Ukraine, Viktor Nazarenko, publicly announced that Kiev is going to take control of the entire section of the border with Russia, where today there are militia DNR and LC.

“We are preparing to take control of the area that we do not control, this is 409,3 kilometers. We have developed an appropriate plan, considered it at the board and should be ready for this. This is a difficult task that we must complete. I want to note that in this matter we will also act in close conjunction with the armed forces and other law enforcement agencies. ”

And with 17-18 in December, the intelligence services of the armies of both republics began to record the movement of military equipment to border areas.

But what does the 9 point say?

9. Recovery full control over the state border from the government of Ukraine in the entire conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after the local elections and end after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) by the end of 2015 subject to the item 11 - in consultations and in consultation with representatives of individual regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions within the framework of the Tripartite Contact Group.

I highlighted the key points, and I’ll also give you the 11 point.

11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine with coming into force by the end of 2015, the new constitutionthat assumes decentralization as a key element (taking into account the peculiarities of certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with the representatives of these regions), and adoption of permanent legislation on the special status of individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in accordance with the measures indicated in note 1, until the end of 2015.

Since there were no movements by the Ukrainian authorities on the 11 clause in general, we are not talking about the 9 clause either. But this is us. And they (the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine) quite frankly prepare to regain control at the border. Or pretend to be prepared. Because of such plans are usually silent.

The "ukroblitskriga" plan, of course, is likely. To gather troops capable of cutting or pushing through the defenses of the armies of the republics and striking is quite within the power of the APU. But ... in the LC and the DNI are well aware of what is happening.

Another Ilovaisk ukroarmii and ukropolitikam hardly survive. This will be the final final. Most likely, we are dealing with a political provocation, both in the first and in the second case. The expectation that Russia is stuck in Syria, has quarreled with Turkey, the economic situation is getting worse, and in Moscow they want to make peace with the West, and therefore the Russian leadership will again put pressure on the people's republics. But this is already in the category of "dreaming."

Apparently, there, in the West, Minsk is already tired of everything. Tired of the sanctions fighters against Russia, as the arguments about the continuation of sanctions day by day look more and more far-fetched and helpless. Tired of the Ukrainian government, which the year did absolutely nothing for the normal implementation of the signed document and the establishment of a real dialogue with the republics.

January 1 will show whether Minsk-2 will continue. Or these agreements will simply be forgotten over time, as some kind of interfering information.

In many sources, more than once, the phrase that the Minsk agreements are no longer worth even the paper on which they were printed slipped. Strongly disagree.

In fact, a year without active hostilities, without mass shelling of cities and villages. The number of lives saved by the Minsk agreements did not just justify the time and nerves spent on them. It paid off with interest.

Apparently, the forces wishing for fighting to thunder and blood again in the Donbas are really tired. Tired of looking at their own powerlessness and the inability to change anything with conventional methods.

It is likely that the Minsk Agreements will indeed be trampled into mud in order to continue to triumph with the ideas of the semi-insane opponents of the Russian world. Well, we all already know how to answer this.

Looking lately at how much around those who want to "lower" us, cause us inconvenience, harm and bring us other "pleasures" of the Western-style democratic system, evil sometimes takes. Few of us own, so still strangers lined up in a queue. "Who else is in line to harm Russia?"

At the time, ukrovoinov scared "north wind." Well scared, because the hotheads cooled on the "one." But the "north wind" is nothing compared to the east. It is not necessary for policy makers to play with nature. East wind ... not worth it, in a word.

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  1. Dezinto
    Dezinto 24 December 2015 07: 16
    Yes, they do not care about these agreements. Gauleiter-Biden came and said "Stop Russian", you are a great nation "

    the dill has been absorbed and will continue. Maybe not "grads" but one fig will continue to shoot, and sanctions - Russia. And the OSCE will not leave the hotels ...
    1. revnagan
      revnagan 24 December 2015 12: 11
      Quote: DEZINTO

      Actually, the Gauleiter of Ukraine -Potroshenko ... Biden is rather an imperial commissioner for eastern affairs.
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 24 December 2015 07: 22
    all this goes through the category of political insanity

    That's putting it mildly. These are already complete brainless "woodpeckers", whose brains have even gone out of their minds because of the fixation on Russia and "Minsk-2", which is pushed into all holes.
    1. bocsman
      bocsman 24 December 2015 07: 36
      It is clear that the new Khazar Khaganate needs blood and the suffering of more and more people, without which they cannot exist. But in their wretchedness they don’t think about the fact that the whole story says that such pseudo states are not viable. Hitler built the millennium Reich and stretched out for fifteen years! Despite the support of all of Europe and the states! And I don’t find these words, and they won’t extend the next year.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Ros 56
      Ros 56 24 December 2015 08: 24
      Guys, but they are not brainless, they simply set the task, by any means, up to the death of people, to organize a provocation (remember the German provocation before the attack on Poland in 1939), then accuse Russia of aggression on its basis, well, according to the pattern, to the full victory. Only these mu ... chimes forgot what kind of country this is, Russia, and who these Russians are. That's all.
      1. Andrei946
        Andrei946 25 December 2015 21: 08
        To these citizens, Russia has shown its power ... Some shots with calibers cost what ... Rocket shots from strategists. Putin hinted that we are enemies with the help of our weapons and so we can get them wherever you want. Only we cannot officially enter Ukraine yet, Russia is not yet in that state. The information background is not yet in favor of Russia. We are already called aggressors there, which does not improve relations with "partners". By and large, they have nothing to show Russia about the troops in Ukraine. Our diplomacy is settling this case. Our "partners" are just waiting for us to enter Ukraine. This will be the reason for the World War, on the threshold of which the world is already standing. And thanks to the Minsk agreements and a number of diplomatic games, the situation is quietly defused. Russia does not need a big war now. Although the EU understands that if Russian tanks cross the Ukrainian border, they will reach the Atlantic coast.
  3. Same lech
    Same lech 24 December 2015 07: 28
    In many sources, more than once, the phrase that the Minsk agreements are no longer worth even the paper on which they were printed slipped. Strongly disagree.

    In fact, a year without active hostilities, without mass shelling of cities and villages. The number of lives saved by the Minsk agreements did not just justify the time and nerves spent on them. It paid off with interest.

    You watch how ROMAN issued ... wisely did not expect.

    Time is playing on us now and every subsequent negative action of KIEV drives the Kiev regime into zukswang ... so that’s all right.
  4. parusnik
    parusnik 24 December 2015 07: 36
    For Potroshenko, a victorious war .. in the Donbass is a chance of joining the European Union .. And the EU, the United States are setting it on this, and not on the implementation of the Minsk agreements ..
  5. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 24 December 2015 07: 45
    This bad world will end sooner or later, Russia will be awaited by at least a new wave of sanctions with the exclusion from onn and other world institutions, and all because the war in Donbass began as a prelude to the war against Russia, and no matter what we do, we will always "aggressors and occupants" while Russia exists as a single whole statehood.
  6. Egoza
    Egoza 24 December 2015 07: 50
    the end of the war for the current government is generally like death. Therefore, there will be new clashes, as well as attempts to make Minsk-3. The EU and the US need to blame sanctions, economic failure, and so on. Nobody even thought to fulfill these agreements. Again, the budget has not been adopted, elections have not been held, the Constitution has not been changed ... the holidays will pass ... and everything will start over. Unless something "hefty global" happens, in the sense of natural cataclysms.
  7. EvgNik
    EvgNik 24 December 2015 08: 01
    Good article. And perhaps she expressed everything that we thought and think about this. And what will happen next - time will tell. And dot the E and i.
  8. aszzz888
    aszzz888 24 December 2015 08: 16
    The date will not give anything on January 1, 23016. Ukrokhunta will fight in agony, to the last.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 24 December 2015 09: 29
      Quote: aszzz888
      The date will not give anything on January 1, 23016.

      Sorry, I do not understand.
  9. Ros 56
    Ros 56 24 December 2015 08: 30
    Well, and to the foregoing. Something like this.
    1. TOR2
      TOR2 24 December 2015 22: 52
      You will not believe it, not so long ago I read on an translation site an interesting article of one of the German magazines. These Eurocenics have already calculated everything. It turns out that even the defeat of NATO is very beneficial for them, if everything goes without nuclear weapons.
  10. Zomanus
    Zomanus 24 December 2015 08: 32
    But Ukraine now has no choice.
    There from January 1 this will spin,
    that to distract the people from this will turn out only war.
    Moreover, the more losses, the better.
    Because it’s possible to nod to the dead,
    they supposedly died for your sake, but you cannot tolerate.
  11. Egoza
    Egoza 24 December 2015 09: 23
    Quote: Zomanus
    that to distract the people from this will turn out only war.

    So for a month every day they have been brainwashing on TV that "terrorist gangs" are violating agreements, conducting shelling, and so on. So today, from the very morning, they reported about the shelling of the Donetsk airport, and to a heap about the "pseudo-humanitarian convoy" from Russia, which, having unloaded from weapons, covered with bags of cereal, will take back the corpses of Russian servicemen.
    1. ML-334
      ML-334 24 December 2015 13: 09
      If only militias shoot, where do the corpses of Russian soldiers come from?
  12. Alexl
    Alexl 24 December 2015 09: 34
    The Minsk agreements became an evil for the militia. Instead of defeating the Ukrainian troops in September 2014, they received their reinforcement. So it remains to wish a speedy end to the action of Minsk-2 and new victories over this Bandera junta.
  13. COBA
    COBA 24 December 2015 09: 42
    My opinion is that the Kremlin will arrange a bloodless transfer of Donbass back to Ukraine, so the destruction of ideological commanders who do not want to put up with this situation continues. The so-called "Russian world" is wholly and completely a project of the Kremlin, which was needed after the Crimean events as a distraction of the forces and attention of amerov's henchmen in Kiev from Crimea. And the Russian people, both in Russia and in the Donbass, believed in this idea (especially after Putin's promise at a meeting of the Security Council to protect Russians anywhere in the world) and was deceived once again, since this idea itself fundamentally excludes coexistence with a criminal oligarchic regime as in Russia and in Ukraine. Therefore, in August 2014, the offensive of the Donbass militia was stopped and the "Russian spring" began to drain into the toilet, and tens of thousands of those killed on both sides were just pawns in a big game.
    1. Alekseev
      Alekseev 24 December 2015 15: 03
      Quote: COBA
      believed in this idea (especially after Putin’s promise at the Security Council meeting to protect Russians anywhere in the world) and was deceived

      And who protected the people in the Donbass? Is not the North breeze?
      Or does the naive belief continue that in August 2014
      Quote: COBA
      militia stopped
      Of course, I want the "tyap-blooper" and ready to ukrovlada, lies on the belly. But it's time to give up naivety - Russia's possibilities are not unlimited, the struggle is difficult, it takes time and not always standard moves.
      The Banderlog are unlikely to attack, they are afraid to approach the border like fire, on their own, without military and socio-economic upheavals, they will not collapse. It is necessary to help, which is being done now, but only a part: termination of trade, litigation. It is still necessary in Donbass to respond to provocations in such a way as to completely discourage the warriors from staying in the "ATO zone".
  14. Bassoon
    Bassoon 24 December 2015 09: 47
    Most likely, the agreements will last until January 15-16. If this year it all started from the airport, then next year - probably from Mariupol. Only next time, instead of the Minsk agreements, there should be an unconditional surrender of the junta.
  15. Freeman
    Freeman 24 December 2015 10: 14
    Apparently, there, in the West, Minsk is already tired of everyone.

    Apparently tired of not only "there" but also "here". Apparently the time has come to move on to Minsk-3. It looks like in "Minsk-2" a bobble came out with the order of execution, the conditions of clause 11 should be before clause 9. And so the "ukrovlast" has an "excuse" that "everything is going according to plan", so the attempt of "official Kiev" to take control the border is quite real. In addition, they should try to "utilize" the next portion of "Natsiks", who are no less dangerous for the current "ukrovlast" than the "separatists" of Donbass. Again, the resumption of hostilities, according to their logic, will once again help to justify the worsening economic situation and the fall in living standards.

    I'm tired of sanctions fighters with Russia, because the arguments about the continuation of sanctions look more far-fetched and helpless every day.

    I disagree with that. To continue economic pressure on Russia, any pretexts and pretexts will be used, despite the degree of their "delusional".
  16. Freeman
    Freeman 24 December 2015 10: 14
    At one time, the ukrovoinov were frightened by the "north wind". They frightened them well, because the hotheads cooled off for the first time. But the "north wind" is nothing compared to the east. Political businessmen should not play with nature. Eastern wind...

    I wonder what is meant by the "East Wind", a direct strike by the Russian Armed Forces on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas ?! Do we need it? The political consequences can be catastrophic - declaring Russia an "aggressor" with the introduction of "all-embracing" sanctions (economic, political, etc.); we will become in essence a "pariah country". Therefore, in my opinion, Russia, as before, will confine itself to "hum. convoys", "the northern wind" and only in case of extreme necessity "vacationers".
    1. Penzyak's Neighbor
      Penzyak's Neighbor 24 December 2015 15: 43
      What difference does it make when you become a pariah country? As if, before that we were "loved" to the point of insanity. They fainted from love! You just had to get involved in the battle, and then the maneuver would be visible. How many people were deceived, in fact betrayed, cheated. Now, it will be much more painful. The sore is covered with a crust.
  17. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 24 December 2015 10: 31
    I would like to believe that our Guide to this option has been thoroughly prepared and will act proactively, and not reactively, as always ..
  18. 23424636
    23424636 24 December 2015 11: 19
    now exercises with shooting are not carried out but the guys have increased Here it would not hurt to drive a couple of echelons of tanks because the Harvat frontier return syndrome in Ukraine is awake.
  19. ML-334
    ML-334 24 December 2015 13: 42
    For some reason, I think the targets for Caliber, air defense, are entirely, and there is aviation. We will attach Ukraine, the issue with Crimea will automatically be removed, the sanctions will be lifted, which was required to be proved. The Minsk agreements are fulfilled, it remains to deal with Minsk himself. Mishiko has indigestion of the second tie I wrote and I don’t understand, either humor or wangyu. I would like the second.
  20. iouris
    iouris 24 December 2015 15: 02
    What to guess on coffee grounds? When the military budget of Georgia exceeded all conceivable limits, it became clear that war was inevitable. A similar case. As long as Anti-Russia exists, war is inevitable. The question is only in goals and strategy. But this is not a debatable issue.
    ODERVIT 24 December 2015 17: 16
    I do not think that ukrovlasti decide on something cardinal. There will be provocations, they will shoot, but decide not to despair for a full-scale escalation. I suppose that all response plans by the General Staff have been developed and enemy power has been warned of the possibility of their implementation. I would like not to be mistaken.
  22. Robert Nevsky
    Robert Nevsky 24 December 2015 17: 43
    For me, definitely will not! soldier
    BARKHAN 24 December 2015 21: 05
    The article is good. Thanks Roman. Vysotsky is generally a balm for the soul.
    Putin will not abandon LDNR because it will be a political death for him. And the enemies on both sides of the border will blow a fire out of it. And in Russia there is always one step from love to hate. Too much has been invested in this conflict to abandon it. Or someone has doubts that the capture of these republics by Bandera will result in a brutal massacre ... and this is the end for all power in Russia, the people will not forgive. Conclusion: victory will be ours. There is simply no other way out.
  24. LeftPers
    LeftPers 25 December 2015 07: 00
    This abscess, I mean ukrohuntu, must be opened from the inside, introduce the right people and crush this boil. And when this pus flows out of the body of the Ukrainian people, we must help them not to make a mistake again, to choose a normal power. And all this Jew-Pendo-Sanskoe trash should be destroyed physically.
  25. 31rus
    31rus 25 December 2015 19: 37
    Dear, once again the Kremlin’s policy towards Ukraine is at least without responsibility, that’s why I’m not sure that there is any plan of action for a military development scenario, such a scenario is not provided for by the Kremlin’s logic itself, again all hope is for those who are at the forefront , and then, as always, according to the situation, and all this will be issued as a kind of strategic plan, only during this time many peaceful and military will die