Military Review

Is there a new Russian-Turkish war?

69
Is there a new Russian-Turkish war?



The Russian Planet asked experts if they allowed the Russian-Turkish conflict to turn into a military clash.
We know quite a lot about Turkey. AT historical memory remained the deceit of the sultans, the cruelty of the Janissaries and, of course, the victory of the Russian weapons. We remember how successfully Russian monarchs fought against the Ottoman Empire: Peter I, Anna Ivanovna, Catherine II, Alexander I, Alexander II, and finally, during World War I, Nikolai II.

In the last war, Russia was able to advance quite far and returned the native Armenian lands. But the revolution broke out in Russia and Turkey. Leon Trotsky concluded the disgraceful Brest peace, and the Caucasian front ceased to exist. The Soviet government returned to the new friends the Bolsheviks - the Kemal Ataturk party - all conquered by the blood of Russian soldiers and Armenian militia.

In 1921, an agreement of "friendship and fraternity" was signed between the government of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and the government of the RSFSR. After World War II, Stalin tried to make territorial claims to Turkey and take away her former Armenian lands. The reason was the fact that Turkey violated neutrality, in fact, being an ally of Hitler. But here the USSR was late: Churchill had already delivered a speech in Fulton, a cold war began. Turkey, due to threats from the Kremlin, according to the current ideologues of Ankara, has urgently joined NATO. This reason for joining the alliance is questioned even in the West.

Under Brezhnev, a trade agreement was concluded, and the USSR began to build plants in Turkey quite energetically, but the country disappeared from the public consciousness of the Soviet people for decades. Turkey peaked out of oblivion into perestroika and in the most active way invaded the everyday life of Russians now. Initially, from there, "shuttles" began to bring fur coats, sheepskin coats, leather jackets, sports suits and everything that can be sold on the clothing market. A little later, but also suddenly and somehow imperceptibly, Turkey turned into an All-Russian health resort.

In recent years, Moscow and Ankara experienced, as it seemed, a “romantic period” in relations, until 24 in November the Turkish Air Force shot down our Su-24 over Syrian territory.

On 14 December, an unpleasant surprise awaited the listeners on the morning air of ЪFM radio listeners. Alexander Sotnichenko, associate professor of the Department of Theory and History of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University and a specialist in Turkey, categorically stated that “... relations can go all the way to armed conflict. Everything is going to this now. ” The threat of a military conflict has been spoken about before, but none of the experts spoke so clearly. And Sotnichenko is not the only one who seriously considers an armed conflict possible.

Arguments against war


As before, most observers consider a full-scale war impossible and a local armed clash unlikely. “Turkey and Russia are not ready for this or do not want it. Among other things, the purpose of the conflict is incomprehensible, for example, for Turkey. I think that the goal of Turkey, when she shot down the plane, was not to make war with Russia, but to prevent our operation in Syria as much as possible and to convince Russia or leave Syria, or at least not to touch Turkish interests in Syria. A full-scale war, in my opinion, is impossible, if only because Russia is a nuclear power, and the military potential of Turkey, firstly, is incomparable with the Russian one, and secondly, it is a member of NATO, which means the conflict will pull the inclusion of a collective mechanism security alliance. NATO is hardly anyone ready for this, no one needs it. This was demonstrated just at the moment when Turkey immediately after the incident with the plane turned to NATO for support. Support in general was limited by some verbal statements by Stoltenberg. And then many said that this was his personal opinion, that is, the reaction of NATO was rather restrained: it’s your bilateral affairs, and figure it out for yourself, ”argues political scientist Sergei Mikheev. The reaction of NATO is a clear signal that the alliance does not intend to “fit in” with the conflict with the Russian Federation because of Erdogan’s ambitions.

“I doubt very much that France, which has a confrontation with DAISH (organization banned in the Russian Federation), will start helping Turkey in terms of solidarity within NATO,” continues Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications. - And, most likely, neither the UK nor Germany, which have already announced the dispatch of their servicemen, primarily the air force, to fight the terrorists, will do this. As a result, Turkey may find itself in rather serious military isolation, which, in turn, will lead to the erosion of the alliance as such. Why? Because in this case there is no guarantee, for example, for Poland, which can start active military operations, or Ukraine, which is entering there, or Georgia will not. The main task for which they are entering is protection. If protection is not provided, then what is the meaning of the block? Therefore, in the framework of radical actions, Turkey may face the opposite situation and in fact expose the entire alliance to erosion. These are additional risks, in which Washington, which is trying to mitigate the situation through negotiations with Secretary of State Kerry, is not interested either. If an armed confrontation begins, the NATO countries will immediately have to decide. There will be no local confrontation, there will be a confrontation of the block. The Russian Federation is a member of the CSTO in general. ”


Military aircraft "Tornado" British Air Force after an airstrike on the positions of the IG in Syria. Photo: Pavlos Vrionides / AP

“The armed conflict between Russia and Turkey, it must be clearly understood, will immediately turn into an armed conflict with NATO,” adds Konstantin Sivkov, first vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. - Therefore, it is not necessary to say that Turkey will go to a full-scale armed conflict with Russia. Local clashes are possible: by the type of incident with the Su-24, or ours will shoot down something. But a major confrontation with large casualties is unlikely. We are still a nuclear power, and Turkey does not want to be a suicide. ”

Arguments for the war


“If you asked this question two weeks ago, I would answer that I’m not considering such an opportunity,” said Abbas Juma, a Russian Arabist and journalist. - Today I will answer this way: I allow this opportunity. This is indicated primarily by the actions of Turkey. Let us recall the recent incident in the Aegean Sea when their seiner came close to our ship and we were forced to open warning fire. This is a hint that they will not stop in a "muscle demonstration" and will further provoke Russia to open fire at some fateful hour. Of course, this will not happen in the Aegean Sea, but, quite possibly, it will happen in Syria. We are transported there, because they "winked" at us there more than unequivocally. And in Syria, Turkey plans to create a buffer zone in the north of the country. Let me remind you: conversations about this zone were conducted even before the Turks attacked the Su-24. What is a buffer zone? And this, as it turned out, the transfer of 1,5 thousand tanks where Kurds live mainly, ostensibly to protect the local population from the "Islamic State". In fact, this is the same military expansion as in Iraq. In Iraq, this was done, firstly, to limit the influence of the Kurds, but this is a secondary task, and the primary goal is for Iraq to call Russia for help, and then there would be a skirmish there. All their actions are now aimed at provoking Russia to some actions that, quite possibly, will lead to an armed clash between Ankara and Moscow. ”

“We don’t want to fight with NATO, and Turkey, because it is a member of NATO, acts so boldly,” continues Abbas Juma. - Because, remember, as soon as the Su-24 was shot down, the first statement was not from the category “we will understand, we will conduct an investigation, let's not chop it off.” The first was a message: “Friends, do not forget, we are friends of NATO, and any attempt to do something against us will be an attempt to do something against NATO.” The same was heard from the mouth of our mustache "comrade". Yes, they do not need the European Union for a long time, Turkey is more or less financially self-sufficient. And Erdogan apparently developed megalomania and ambition for the restoration of the empire. Hence pan-Islamism and Pan-Turkism. A characteristic feature is the rise of the Gray Wolves and their active sponsorship by Ankara. You can see what the Gray Wolves profess, and you will understand what Erdogan wants. Ambitions - to restore the Ottoman Porto, the Ottoman Caliphate - eclipsed his eyes. But at the same time, NATO membership gives Turkey a certain “indulgence” on all actions, in particular against Russia. Erdogan and Davutoglu use the fact that now between us and the West there is a gulf of misunderstanding because of Syria, because of Ukraine. On this wave, Erdogan is trying to make a name for himself. And if you need to enter into an armed conflict with Russia in Syria, you can be sure Erdogan will not fail to seize the opportunity. The big problem is that the guy is absolutely out of control, even Americans understand that. Erdogan is an idiot, between us, not understanding that in reality death awaits him. ”

“The clash between Turkey and Russia suddenly suddenly became real. This is due to the fact that Turkey clearly made a bet on the change of power in Syria, despite the intervention of Russia and Iran in the conflict, and also in connection with the creation in Saudi Arabia of the so-called Sunni coalition against the "Islamic state", read it, " against Assad. " I doubt the reality of the coalition, nevertheless the Saudis declared that it is a military alliance and is ready to fight. In what form can this happen? As is known, the participation of the Russian military space forces in the operation in Syria is indeed one of the most important factors for the success of the Syrian army’s attack and various Hezbollah-like movements that support it, Iranian volunteers, etc. In the Turkish press now (before the incident with the aircraft, the participation of the Russian Federation in the operation in Syria was practically not discussed) Russia is simply enemy No. 1. And now two options are being considered, ”adds Sotnichenko.


Demonstration of Turkish nationalists in Istanbul. Photo: Ozan Kose / AFP

The first option, according to Alexander Sotnichenko, may be the following: “For Turkey, death is like the encirclement of the city of Halep, or Aleppo, which is now being conducted by Syrian troops. Because the supply of various groups in the region of weapons, medicines and everything else is interrupted. Therefore, it is now generally decided how much Turkey’s assistance to these groups will be increased. But this is not yet the intervention of the Turkish armed forces themselves. The second point: the fighting in Bair-Budzhak, a district near Hatay, on the border, where a Russian plane was shot down. It is Turkmen who are fighting there - the main "clients" of the Turks in the conflict. In general, most likely, the situation there is unlikely to evolve under the scenario of a direct collision, at least no one is knocking down Russian planes there, and they continue to actively bombard the positions of these very Turkmen militants. If in Turkey they really decide on serious actions, then a scenario of a tank shot at a Russian military base not far from Lattakia is being developed. But this, as everyone understands, is a real war, a real one. ”

“And a much more likely option is the active participation of Turkey in the division of Syria,” the expert continues. - So far, the Turkish position, like the positions of the West, and Saudi Arabia, is to prevent Russia, Iran and, strictly speaking, the Syrian leadership from retaining power over the entire territory of Syria. If Assad remains, then their plans have completely failed. Therefore, now they are actively preparing for the situation - for the possible division of Syria into spheres of influence along a confessional basis. So that, conditionally, Assad should leave the western areas, and the eastern areas to remain under the control of the Sunnis. This idea will probably embody the Saudi coalition. And the implementation of the plan will begin when the Syrian troops enter into direct armed conflict with the Islamic State, that is, they will launch an offensive against areas tightly controlled by the militants of the Islamic State. These are the neighborhoods of Raqqi, the very oil-bearing areas. Then the start of the offensive of the so-called coalition against the "Islamic State" on the other hand, apparently, from Turkey and Jordan, will be announced immediately. And here, too, certain problems and collisions are possible. ”

However, according to Alexander Sotnichenko, Erdogan can be hindered by a completely unexpected force: “Turkey’s involvement in a big conflict in the Middle East, as well as a serious economic crisis, to which Turkey is approaching due to breaking ties with Russia, may lead the military to military coup. Although you still need to imagine that the current military in Turkey is not the military who were there 10 years ago. The current government has done everything to disperse the most politically active. But it all depends on the depth of the crisis. The military clearly does not want to fight with Russia, like NATO. ”
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  1. avvg
    avvg 22 December 2015 05: 39 New
    -11
    Turks (NATO mongrel) can only “bark” from around the corner, they will not fight with us.
    1. Vladimyrych
      Vladimyrych 22 December 2015 05: 43 New
      33
      In vain you are so ... Underestimate the enemy is the last thing. Even the weakest must be regarded as the strongest. It’s better to overtake and as they say ...
      1. Sirocco
        Sirocco 22 December 2015 06: 06 New
        22
        Quote: Vladimir
        It’s better to overtake and as they say ...

        In the right, I believe that the Turks (Erdogan) is not an independent unit, on this theater, no matter how they presented it to us, it’s emotional, impudent, but still it is controlled from the outside. In Turkey, it is like a splinter that interferes, and there is a desire to extract it. The Caribbean crisis, began with her darling, we’re moving on, the conflict between Turkey and Russia over the Su-24 shot down by Turkey reminds me conflict with Georgia in 2008, no matter who says anything, Saakashvili did not act in that conflict on his own, (like Erdogan), the United States, with the help of Mishiko, ran his control system on us, and checked our actions. With Drying there was another task, what? one can guess, but not as if not taking on a fright, they say Russia will abandon the bombing of terrorists.
        Turkey is a kind of TROYAN HORSE, says one thing, thinks of another, does the third, pay attention to what media publications went, Erdogan supposedly met or discussed the situation in Crimea with the Crimean opposition, Then provocations on the Armenian border, It’s also muddying with Azerbaijan and their media statements put forward by the Russian Federation, Kazan made itself felt.
        So the question about the war is incorrectly posed, the war is on, only in a year it will go into the hot phase, and what country will act as a detonator in this mess, time will show, and common sense among the leaders of this world (if any).
        I have repeatedly said, I’ll rejoice, the topic again, everything recalls the end of the 30s, only in those years, there was Japan in the east, now Turkey is in the South, and not everything is clear with Ukraine, either to us or to the West.
        We need war last of all, but the West is the first.
        1. oldseaman1957
          oldseaman1957 22 December 2015 08: 58 New
          +3
          Quote: Sirocco
          I believe that the Turks (Erdogan) is not an independent unit,
          - Erdogan and Saakashvili are completely incomparable. Erdogan is a stronger spiritually and stubborn politician. Moreover, Turkey has a powerful modern army, and whenever possible, Erdogan will also try to draw NATO into a conflict with Russia. (His deceit is enough for that!). Therefore, to this explosive "snake" you need to have a very calculated approach.
          1. Sirocco
            Sirocco 22 December 2015 10: 32 New
            0
            Quote: oldseaman1957
            - Erdogan and Saakashvili are completely incomparable.

            This is a no brainer, there are no identical people, I'm not talking about that. They act on someone else's orders.
            Merkel, Oland, Erdogan, Saakashvili are all different, but they are all from the same stall, and they are fed by one owner, and he also puts them on the races.
          2. Stas157
            Stas157 22 December 2015 11: 59 New
            +3
            Quote: oldseaman1957
            - Erdogan and Saakashvili are completely incomparable. Erdogan is a stronger spiritually and stubborn politician. Moreover, Turkey has a powerful modern army

            Come on! Saakashvilli is just as stubborn and both suffer from megalomania! You forgot 2008, when the Georgian army was armed and trained according to NATO standards, and the Georgians threatened to march on Red Square! After all, the United States did not invest billions of dollars in the Georgian army for the war of Georgians with Ossetia. This hour, in hindsight, is seen as we famously overturned Georgians, but before that it didn’t seem so.
            Today our army has become much stronger and the Turks simply have nothing to answer. The weakest point is our small military base in Syria against 1,5 thousand Turkish tanks. In contrast, parts of the 58th Army of the South-East Military District and the S-400 and Iskander complexes on the Armenian-Turkish border hang over Turkey.
        2. Dryuya2
          Dryuya2 22 December 2015 09: 50 New
          0
          Quote: Sirocco
          Pay attention to what media publications went, Erdogan supposedly met or discussed the situation in Crimea with the Crimean opposition, Then provocations on the Armenian border, Azerbaijan is also muddied and their media are making statements by the Russian Federation, Kazan made itself felt.

          I don’t think that at our headquarters "teddy bears" are sitting - the Turks have their own internal "problems" - PKK (you can also support the Kurds and be more active (not publicly))
          ======
          http://warsonline.info/turtciia/novosti/turtciia/tiazhelye-boi-turetckoi-armii-s

          -kurdami-idut-na-iugo-vostoke-strany.html
          article
          The heavy battles of the Turkish army with the Kurds are in the south-east of the country
          video from there

          video from Kurds - I don’t know for a year, but I think it’s not this .

          1. Sirocco
            Sirocco 22 December 2015 10: 38 New
            +5
            Quote: Dryuya2

            I don’t think that at our headquarters "teddy bears" are sitting - the Turks have their own internal "problems" - PKK

            I have no doubt about this, and the fact that Turkey "helped" us in the 90s with terror, the intelligence services knew. I hope they get what they sow.
            Only the internal "elite" is annoying.
            The experience of Ukraine has shown that in order to ruin your country, enemies are not needed. Enough of their "patriots"
            I look at us enough of them.
            1. Dryuya2
              Dryuya2 22 December 2015 10: 44 New
              0
              Quote: Sirocco
              I hope they get what they sow.

              war then today hybrid yes
              FSKN: Turkish laboratories process Afghan opium into heroin for shipments to Europe
              Turkish laboratories process Afghan opium into heroin for shipments to Europe. It is reported by RIA Novosti with reference to the Federal Drug Control Service of the Russian Federation.
              Original news RT in Russian:
              https://russian.rt.com/article/138163
              and OUR words are not thrown into the wind in such matters - that means there is evidence good
              1. Dryuya2
                Dryuya2 22 December 2015 11: 11 New
                0
                http://www.nakanune.ru/news/2015/12/21/22423528/
                The leader of the Turkish procura party is going to Moscow to negotiate with Lavrov -
                The Russian Foreign Ministry confirms the possibility of a meeting this week between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the co-chairman of the Prokurdish Party of Democracy of the Peoples of Turkey, Selahattin Demirtash.
                "We are effective, we want to use our strength. We want to help Turkish citizens - businessmen, students who suffer from tensions with the Russian Federation. We will open our party’s representative office in Moscow," Demirtash said in an interview with Özgür Gün TV.
      2. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 22 December 2015 06: 07 New
        +3
        Quote: Vladimir
        Underestimating the enemy is the last thing.

        Right.
        Quote: Vladimir
        It’s better to overtake and as they say ...

        Right.
        I will sell the bunker expensive winked New Year discounts fellow
        1. Mikhail Krapivin
          Mikhail Krapivin 22 December 2015 07: 44 New
          +3
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          Quote: Vladimir
          Underestimating the enemy is the last thing.

          Right.
          Quote: Vladimir
          It’s better to overtake and as they say ...

          Right.
          I will sell the bunker expensive winked New Year discounts


          If the BIG BADA BOOM begins, then hiding in the bunkers will be a deeply unpromising occupation that will not only prolong life, but turn it into a short but painful nightmare. The best thing you can do is go out to meet the rising fungus and smile for the last time.
          1. Svetlana
            Svetlana 22 December 2015 08: 35 New
            +1
            If there is a war, and this is very likely, then it will not be with the use of nuclear weapons. Otherwise, the meaning of this war is zero.
            1. CONTROL
              CONTROL 22 December 2015 10: 09 New
              0
              Quote: Svetlana
              If there is a war, and this is very likely, then it will not be with the use of nuclear weapons. Otherwise, the meaning of this war is zero.

              Question to the Armenian radio: - Will there be a third world war? Answer: - No, it will not. But there will be such a struggle for peace that from stone to stone there will be no stone left ...
              The behavior of the Turkish leaders reminds: - to spite my mother’s ears frostbite, or - I’ll buy a ticket, and I won’t go to spite the conductor!
              On the other hand, the so-called "NATO strategy" in the conflict in Syria between Turkey and Russia looks a lot like the behavior of an indignant spouse in response to the "flight" of her husband who got into an affair with his secretary: ... with the third ... "- well, she likes this thing! ...
        2. Mik13
          Mik13 22 December 2015 07: 49 New
          0
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          I will sell the bunker expensively. New Year's discounts.

          Is there a delivery-installation-washing?
          Or pickup?
      3. shuhartred
        shuhartred 22 December 2015 08: 54 New
        0
        Quote: Vladimir
        Even the weakest must be regarded as the strongest. It’s better to overtake and as they say ...

        Here you are also not quite right. It is impossible to overestimate the enemy, otherwise you will never decide on active actions and consequently will lose, as Kuropatkin in 1905. It is better to get zvizdyule than surrender without a fight at all (Nebogatov again).
    2. ML-334
      ML-334 22 December 2015 05: 55 New
      +1
      On the basis of what, did you make such a conclusion? I think that not the Turks are behind the shooting down of Drying. Uncle Sam is bothering.
    3. vovanpain
      vovanpain 22 December 2015 05: 56 New
      +9
      that Turkey violated neutrality by actually being an ally of Hitler.

      Everything can be expected from these chebureks, but Erdogon Don is not crazy to lose what he has now, he will provoke it, but he is unlikely to make a serious collision.
      1. guzik007
        guzik007 22 December 2015 07: 33 New
        +2
        but erdogon don
        -------------------
        but for this, comrade, I got a ban in the week: =)
    4. 1976AG
      1976AG 22 December 2015 08: 41 New
      0
      No need to guess. You just have to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. And then again, let's say, oh, but we did not expect!
  2. afdjhbn67
    afdjhbn67 22 December 2015 05: 45 New
    +5
    The title would make sense to correct - "Will a hybrid war outgrow - into a war with a classic definition"
    It is unlikely that a lot of arguments speak for it .. The most important thing is the lack of a common border, which will prevent the whole action from turning into an exciting "show" for the US fun ..
    1. V.ic
      V.ic 22 December 2015 07: 07 New
      +1
      Quote: afdjhbn67
      The most important is not strange lack of a common border

      ... the Boer War of 1899-1902;
      .Russian-Japanese war of 1904-1905;
      ... Japanese-American War of 1941-1945
      1. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 22 December 2015 10: 13 New
        0
        Quote: V.ic
        ... the Boer War of 1899-1902;
        ... Russian-Japanese war of 1904-1905;
        ... Japanese-American War of 1941-1945

        With regard to Russia and Turkey - the examples are not impressive ... (while your list is far from complete ..)
        Not one of the parties has the opportunity to send troops, and the exchange of missile and bomb strikes is excluded for both countries ..
        24rus RU Today, 05:47
        Turkey has friends of NATO and Russia has nuclear weapons

        as a colleague remarked correctly ... hi
        1. V.ic
          V.ic 22 December 2015 10: 45 New
          0
          Quote: afdjhbn67
          lack of a common border,

          Quote: afdjhbn67
          the examples are not impressive.

          You put forward a thesis, I put forward an antithesis. Your answer is not impressive.
      2. Stirbjorn
        Stirbjorn 22 December 2015 14: 39 New
        0
        Quote: V.ic
        ... the Boer War of 1899-1902;

        At the time of the war, the English colonies were surrounded by 2 Boer republics - Transvaal and Orange
  3. 24rus
    24rus 22 December 2015 05: 47 New
    +1
    Turkey has friends of NATO, and Russia has nuclear weapons.
    1. kuz363
      kuz363 22 December 2015 06: 05 New
      +3
      NATO also has nuclear weapons. And in a normal war, Russia will lose, and even in Turkey. Population under 70 million, as a half of Russia, the army for 400 thousand people. Very efficient, motivated to war in harsh conditions, longing for revenge for past defeats. And the fact that technology is behind Russia is quickly compensated by the United States. Moreover, in Afghanistan for 10 years of the war, superiority in technology did not lead to the victory of the USSR. So Turkey will not be left alone
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 22 December 2015 06: 15 New
        14
        Quote: kuz363
        And in a normal war, Russia will lose,

        1000 years in the west, planning military companies came to the same conclusion that Russia would lose, but then something went wrong with their plan.
        Quote: kuz363
        Population under 70 million, as a half of Russia, the army for 400 thousand people. Very efficient, motivated to war in harsh conditions, longing for revenge for past defeats.

        Smiled.
        Quote: kuz363
        And the fact that technology is behind Russia is quickly compensated by the United States.

        How and when?
        Quote: kuz363
        . Moreover, in Afghanistan for 10 years of the war, superiority in technology did not lead to the victory of the USSR.

        It is clear that the United States also failed to defeat Afghanistan, which means the United States will lose to Turkey lol
      2. Moore
        Moore 22 December 2015 06: 20 New
        +4
        And who is going to fight in Turkey? Historically, the Turks were driven to the sea, in the Caucasus and planned to capture the straits - it never occurred to anyone to move deeper into the territory. What for?
        1. Stirbjorn
          Stirbjorn 22 December 2015 10: 07 New
          +2
          Quote: Moore
          Who is going to fight in Turkey? Historically, the Turks were driven to the sea, in the Caucasus and planned to capture the straits - it never occurred to anyone to move deeper into the territory. What for?
          Bad you know the story! Suvorov, Rumyantsev, in the Caucasus, in your opinion, fought with the Turks? Paskevich in 1829 Erzurum took, and this is the capital of Anatolia. It’s always better to fight in enemy territory.
          PS And as for the fleet, at the moment - we have problems with it, the Turks have a clear advantage.
      3. The comment was deleted.
    2. perm23
      perm23 22 December 2015 06: 45 New
      +1
      So what is nuclear weapons. It’s not easy to apply. Will we have the resolve? Probably not . We will fight only with conventional weapons. and here, as always, that our soldier will be able. All of him and the Russian people in the rear ..
  4. Yak28
    Yak28 22 December 2015 05: 57 New
    10
    And to be a Russian-Turkish and world war, it is a matter of time. Only we need not to watch, but calmly preparing for such a war
  5. magician
    magician 22 December 2015 06: 00 New
    0
    not so stupid Turks. ambitious, yes, self-confident, yes, but not stupid. Petty meanness in their current style, and even then with the presentation of the owners.
  6. Zomanus
    Zomanus 22 December 2015 06: 04 New
    +2
    Maybe the confrontation between Turkey and Russia will not be,
    but the confrontation between Turkey and other shobla-Russia is quite real.
    When the Middle East garbage collects and trample against us.
  7. martin-159
    martin-159 22 December 2015 06: 07 New
    0
    Some sort of confusion and staggering began in NATO.
  8. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 22 December 2015 06: 10 New
    +7
    Everything must be prepared. Remember 08.08.08 ....
  9. A1L9E4K9S
    A1L9E4K9S 22 December 2015 06: 11 New
    0
    It is unlikely that anyone at the moment will decide on a war with Russia, this is direct suicide, but everyone wants to live.
  10. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 22 December 2015 06: 18 New
    0
    Any conflict can very easily turn into a new world war, everyone understands this, and even NATO is trying to prevent the Russian-Turkish war.
  11. Gunsmith
    Gunsmith 22 December 2015 06: 20 New
    +1
    It is enough for Russia to block the border with Turkey about the exchange of goods (which is already being done) and not extend the Kars Treaty from 1921 - the Turks immediately lose a third of their territory and billions of dollars. Everything, uncle Erdogan will be hanged by his own. And no saber rattling. The economy is a harsh thing.
    1. perm23
      perm23 22 December 2015 06: 50 New
      +2
      The economy will NOT always and not immediately help. Already, the EU has announced that it will help the Turks and the Saudis. so. Yes and time it is necessary that economic methods work. And the Turks may well strike in the wake of patriotism. It all depends on how our ruler behaves.
    2. Corsair0304
      Corsair0304 22 December 2015 08: 27 New
      +3
      Quote: Gunsmith
      not extend the Kars Treaty of 1921


      The Kars Treaty entered into force on September 11, 1922. Consists of a preamble, 20 articles and 3 appendices. The term of the contract was not agreed. In accordance with the contract, the cities of Kars and Ardagan were transferred to Turkey. Mount Ararat also appeared in Turkey. This distinction has become the main reason why the modern Republic of Armenia does not recognize the Kars Treaty.
  12. Aleksandr72
    Aleksandr72 22 December 2015 06: 22 New
    +6
    Whether or not to be a war between Russia and Turkey - the solution to this issue depends, as it seems to me, on the position of the Russian leadership. Of course, the Turks will continue provocations, firstly, feeling their impunity for the previous "tricks" (treacherously shot down Su-24, obstacles and incidents when the Russian ships crossed the Straits, etc.), and secondly, Turkey is still a NATO member and hopes for effective support (including military force) from the Alliance in the event of an aggravation of the situation, and thirdly (a very important condition) Erdogan cannot play back without losing his face, he will simply be forced to continue to run into the conflict with Russia, otherwise it will show its weakness, and in the East this is not forgiven to the rulers. Plus, such a factor is also involved here: Russia, with its active assistance to B. Assad in the fight against Daesh in Syria, at the same time significantly affects both Turkey’s foreign policy interests (as they see them in Ankara) and the personal economic interests of the Erdogan family (which of these interests more important for Erdogan - that’s another question!) In the light of the latest official statements by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation regarding the impossibility of reading data from the flight recorder shot down by the Su-24 Turks (which Turkey was probably very happy about wassat ) it is completely unclear what the subsequent reaction of the Russian leadership to the development of Russian-Turkish relations will be and in what way these relations will develop.
    Experts' opinions about the possibility or impossibility in the foreseeable future of the Russo-Turkish war look speculative in many respects or are based on emotions, which, incidentally, was reflected in this article.
    Wait and see.
    I have the honor.
    1. max702
      max702 22 December 2015 12: 10 New
      0
      Quote: Aleksandr72
      it is completely unclear what the subsequent reaction of the Russian leadership to the development of Russian-Turkish relations will be and in what way these relations will develop.

      The whole reaction will be in the spirit of “Understand and Forgive” .. Alas, the latest gestures speak directly about it, it seems that the economic noose was much more severe than our top leaders expected, if you watched the last speeches with Putin, when it came to economics, he looked very sad and hid his eyes .. For had to lie! And he does not like this, but apparently the circumstances are higher than him .. Why am I? And the fact that without the economy today is not possible to fight! Well, there’s an understanding that we won’t pull the war with Turkey by conventional means .. We don’t have the necessary means to defeat Turkey and at the same time do not incur losses, the situation is exactly like with Japan in 1905. An ambitious country that is being tempted by the Anglo-Saxons and Russia is trying to get on its feet .. What we ended in 1905 we all remember, although there was just the opportunity to change everything. after the defeat at sea and the landing of the Japanese on land, the necessary number of troops was transferred to this theater of war and the Japanese had no chance there BUT Nikolai the second, under the pressure of Western bankers (very large economic losses), did not conduct a ground operation, and turned on back, thereby initiating the bloodiest scenario .. The same thing will happen and now turn on the back let's make concessions, everything, khan to the country! So we need to understand well that we have nothing to lose, and to have the courage to put ALL our strength and resources into action ..
  13. Sakhalin.
    Sakhalin. 22 December 2015 06: 24 New
    0
    Nato, Turks, hats, they are all the best "friends." We ourselves will not die, we will not help, for the devils one side is the way!
  14. alex-cn
    alex-cn 22 December 2015 06: 38 New
    +5
    "If Turkey really decides to take serious action, then a script is being developed for a tank throw at a Russian military base near Latakia. But this, as everyone understands, is already a real war, a real one."
    This is exactly what the Turks will not do. It is clear that the UN and NATO will definitely disown them. Article 5 of this office speak of general defense, not support for aggression. In this case, they will certainly not fight for them.
    1. 1976AG
      1976AG 22 December 2015 08: 48 New
      0
      Tank Throw ?! What a big name !!! Is this this scrap metal that periodically flashes in the reports? Here you seem to have gone too far.
  15. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 22 December 2015 06: 57 New
    +3
    An open war, I think, will not be. Turks are not suicides, although they have inflated anti-Russian hysteria to heaven. And it will not be the Gray Wolves that fight, but the army, which partly consists of the gendarmerie (included in the number of troops). Turkish officers are probably motivated and well trained, but they are obliged to understand that for the most part they do not sniff tobacco. The mattresses made it clear to the Turks that they would not fight with Russia for them - removing the fighters from the Incirlika. And to imagine that the German Hans will go to fight with Russia for the Turks, whom they are sick of at home, I don’t have enough imagination for this.
    1. Corsair0304
      Corsair0304 22 December 2015 08: 35 New
      +1
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      And to imagine that the German Hans will go to fight with Russia for the Turks, whom they are sick of at home, I don’t have enough imagination for this.


      As well as the French Jean-Jacques.
      Perhaps they will try to fish in muddy water, arrogant Saxons and wastelands Lithuania-Latvia-Estonia-Romania-Poland. For the rest, for example, Italy, Spain, Portugal, the mess with Russia generally does not rest anywhere.
  16. Decathlon
    Decathlon 22 December 2015 06: 59 New
    -2
    "... then what is the meaning of the block? ..."
    Well hello! Only loot! What do you think, if I charge a neighbor, a summer resident from another cooperative on a pumpkin with a shovel, then the whole evoy cooperative will harness for it ?! no Maximum - visit of the district police officer with absolutely formal goals ...
  17. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 22 December 2015 07: 08 New
    +1
    Why do we need a war. We do not need war. It is advisable to "help" the Kurds in the war against the Turks!
  18. Armored optimist
    Armored optimist 22 December 2015 07: 08 New
    0
    The Americans took their "patriots", drove off the F-15. At the first danger of real escalation, they will merge Turkey from NATO, so as not to have hemorrhoids. They don’t want to fit in for her.
    1. Corsair0304
      Corsair0304 22 December 2015 08: 36 New
      0
      Quote: armored optimist
      They don’t want to fit in for her.

      In a quiet way, they can. Such is their despicable nature.
  19. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 22 December 2015 07: 41 New
    +1
    most observers consider a full-scale war impossible and unlikely a local armed clash

    A full-scale war is unlikely, but a local clash due to the fault of the Turks may occur if the United States does not take them into the "hedgehog" gauntlets. Of course you always want the best, but you can expect everything from Erdogan, who has driven himself into a corner.
  20. avva2012
    avva2012 22 December 2015 07: 50 New
    +2
    The war is on, but this is a war of nerves. Provoke Russia to aggression, then a variety of scenarios are possible. Turkey, naturally with Russia, will not fight alone. And the point is not only that the Russian Federation possesses nuclear weapons. In Turkey (according to open sources), there is no deeply layered air defense. How will they respond to our cruise missiles and VKS attacks? Why do we need nuclear weapons? Turkey is not only resorts. The economy consists of the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, hydropower, metallurgy, shipbuilding, and automotive. According to 2014: this country ranks third in Europe (after Germany and Italy) in plastic production (7,2 million tons, $ 30 billion), sixth in Europe in paint production. Fertilizer production, ranks tenth in the world. The export of chemical products in 2013 amounted to $ 17,5 billion. So, imagine the video footage of the work of the aerospace forces in Syria, transferred to Turkey. There will remain a territory unsuitable for living, after all this has been processed. How can Turkey get us? So far, we have the best air defense system in the world. And no Turkish army, "motivated to war in harsh conditions, eager for revenge for past defeats," will do nothing to us, and its motivation will lose at once. So that they let their figurines, even until they turn blue.
    1. Army soldier2
      Army soldier2 22 December 2015 09: 40 New
      -1
      But what about the Hague agreements on the rules of war?
      1. avva2012
        avva2012 22 December 2015 10: 05 New
        -1
        That is, the USA, bombing the hospital, are these agreements being implemented? I don’t remember, Iraqi oil was still burning in the first Gulf War, someone, someone, presented something?
    2. The comment was deleted.
  21. Vital1
    Vital1 22 December 2015 07: 55 New
    0
    Quote: 24rus
    Turkey has friends of NATO, and Russia has nuclear weapons.



    Use nuclear weapons? The gut is thin in all states that possess it. Everyone understands that this is the death of mankind. Therefore, if there is a war, then Russia will be very difficult. Even if we do not talk about the patriotism of today's youth (it is not). I would like to touch upon our generals. Even the Minister of Defense is not a career officer (jacket). About 12 years ago he was traveling with one colonel, the regiment commander, and he was over 50 years old. He said with tears in his eyes what was going on in their division. "The commander of a sucker, 34 years old, doesn’t even know what the expanded floor is! He’ll get a general to Moscow now. He’s got a dad at the General Staff. A division is being created for one person to get general epaulettes to Moscow, and then her disband. " In three days, the train told a lot about the army. So our generals are purely on paper, not all of course, but many. The latest technology, tanks, aviation, etc. in scanty amounts. So it will be necessary to fight mainly with partisans and small arms. But we will fight for our Motherland and people, even if you eat land.
    1. Corsair0304
      Corsair0304 22 December 2015 08: 48 New
      0
      Quote: Vital1
      Even if we do not talk about the patriotism of today's youth (it is not)


      You're not right. I don’t know how in all regions of Russia, but with patriotism everything is in order. Not so, of course, as in the USSR, but at the proper level. Believe me - I know what I'm talking about. A cadet movement is developing, a lot of boys go to gyms, and do not sit at computers (although this too, but at night).

      Quote: Vital1
      About 12 years ago he was traveling with one colonel, the regiment commander, and he was over 50 years old. He said with tears in his eyes what was going on in their division.


      That was 12 years ago.
      Of course, morons have always been enough, and not only in the army, but in civilian life. Pushing "little ones to warm places" has always been, is and will be, and not only in our country. It’s just that the colonel was “lucky” with this and this is not an indicator.
      New equipment is not enough - I agree. But here it’s more about the fact that Russia is too lazy to create and nourish with new things, but that the “sworn friends” are doing everything possible and impossible to stretch the rearmament of Russia, as they clearly realize that as soon as we reach the peak of military uniforms they will never again be able to afford such a dismissive attitude towards our country.
  22. Vasilenko Vladimir
    Vasilenko Vladimir 22 December 2015 08: 00 New
    +1
    We remember how the Russian monarchs successfully fought against the Ottoman Empire: Peter I, ...

    --------
    the author generally studied the topic ?!
  23. Max_Bauder
    Max_Bauder 22 December 2015 08: 09 New
    0
    Is there a new Russian-Turkish war?


    Not to be! short and clear. Think up arguments why.
  24. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 22 December 2015 08: 11 New
    0
    You are simply amazed at what the Middle East has become, thanks to the efforts of the United States. Pissed off; destroyed everything that is possible with its Arab spring; have produced (if they themselves have not created) terrorists and their direct consequence - refugees. That's terrible. So Turkey uses Russia-USA graters; wants to grab its own piece of Syria, or Iraq.
  25. lewerlin53rus
    lewerlin53rus 22 December 2015 08: 21 New
    +2
    Let me remind you that today is still noteworthy and in some way a syvolic date. On December 22, 1790, Russian troops under the command of Alexander Suvorov stormed the Turkish fortress of Izmail.

    The assault on Izmail in 1790 was undertaken by order of the Commander-in-Chief of the Southern Army, Field Marshal G. A. Potemkin. Neither N. V. Repnin (1789), nor I. V. Gudovich, nor P. S. Potemkin (1790) could solve this problem, after which G. A. Potemkin entrusted the operation to A. V. Suvorov.

    Turkish losses amounted to 29 thousand people killed. The losses of the Russian army amounted to 4 thousand people killed and 6 thousand wounded. All guns were captured, 400 banners, huge supplies of food and jewelry for 10 million piastres. M.I. Kutuzov, in the future the famous commander, the winner of Napoleon, was appointed commandant of the fortress.
  26. Million
    Million 22 December 2015 08: 30 New
    0
    Better a bad world than a good war
  27. Evil 55
    Evil 55 22 December 2015 08: 45 New
    0
    An associate professor, a scientific title, is not always given to people literate, since the criterion is mainly pedagogical experience, and not the mind ..... And I would also tear off his tongue, PROVOCATOR for such words, and not just the title ..
  28. Corsair0304
    Corsair0304 22 December 2015 08: 52 New
    0
    There will be no full-scale war. Border conflicts, provocations in the straits and the Black Sea, in the air - I admit to myself.
  29. 1976AG
    1976AG 22 December 2015 08: 52 New
    0
    Quote: Max_Bauder
    Is there a new Russian-Turkish war?


    Not to be! short and clear. Think up arguments why.


    There would be such seers, but in our government !!! How much dough would be saved !!! And then again - but we did not expect!
  30. BARKHAN
    BARKHAN 22 December 2015 09: 07 New
    +2
    Well, a war between states may well go by the wrong hands, by terrorist acts on enemy territory. By sabotage at various objects and crowded places. By the exact elimination of active politicians and the military. Supporting marginal forces behind enemy lines. By throwing out a huge amount of incriminating evidence and outright lies in the media -space.
    So .that we need to think only about Turkish planes and tanks ...
  31. Army soldier2
    Army soldier2 22 December 2015 09: 54 New
    +1
    Quote: Vital1


    About 12 years ago he rode with one colonel, the regiment commander, and he was about years old for 50. He said with tears in his eyes what was going on in their division. The divisional sucker, 34 of the year, does not even know what the expanded floor is! Now he will receive a general in Moscow. In the General Staff, his dad is there. A division is being created for one person, in order to get general epaulettes in Moscow, and then they will disband it. We will fight.

    12 years ago, this is 2003 year. The army, indeed, was not in the best condition. And about this tearful colonel who weeps in a vest the first passenger who got on the train had to report to the General Staff that you didn't like. If you would dismiss this villain, the percentage of real colonels would rise smile .
    Can you imagine how many months (years) and billions of rubles are needed to form / disband a division? You have good sources of knowledge about the RF Armed Forces. If only the textbook of the sergeant of motorized rifle troops would be revered ...
    The operation in Syria, in your opinion, is also planned / carried out at the level of private corporal?
  32. Xenos
    Xenos 22 December 2015 10: 38 New
    +1
    For some reason, in Ukraine, fools have always been called "Turks" good
  33. salad
    salad 22 December 2015 10: 56 New
    -1
    PERDogan is not adequate, but SSSAKashvili Ukroinets laughing
  34. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 22 December 2015 11: 43 New
    +1
    I’m reluctant to fight the Turks until the Englishwoman and the Yankees are destroyed.
    Why spend energy on crap?
    If only a couple of dozen tactical nuclear strikes against Turland are charged, but the people are not entirely to blame for the fact that they have a major Turkish degenerate.
    We have a beautifully hunchbacked ebony, so people fooled and gave the country to plunder by local Jews and other degenerates from across the ocean. So it’s better to somehow, similarly, crush the Turks politically and economically.

    And the true enemy of Russia is small Britain and America, and they need to be fought.
    It is necessary to treat the disease, not the symptoms!
  35. Alexandr2637
    Alexandr2637 22 December 2015 17: 23 New
    0
    Is there a new Russian-Turkish war?

    Without a doubt ...