On the eve of D. Medvedev's visit to the People's Republic of China in Moscow, there were real victorious moods. Heard fanfare.
Russia and China expect to increase trade to 200 billion dollars over five years. This will be facilitated by large-scale projects launched in the coming years, said Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, giving an interview to Renmin Ribao on the eve of his visit to China. This was reported by 13 December TASS.
Recall that the meetings of the heads of government of Russia and China are held once a year. At the current meeting, the parties signed more than three dozen documents on cooperation: here is the joint development of high-tech projects, including the prefix "nano", and the nuclear industry, and aircraft building, and more.
On December 17, Dmitry Medvedev, who heads the Russian government, completed his official visit to the Middle Kingdom. “Each such meeting ends with the signing of documents,” said the head of the cabinet. This meeting was already the twentieth in a row, recalls "Russian newspaper".
"Only in recent years, these meetings began to bring visible results to our economies, and therefore - to people who live in China and Russia," - quotes the publication of Mr. Medvedev. But ten years ago, trade and investment cooperation was several times smaller.
It was said about the bright Russian-Chinese future.
The plans include an increase in turnover to 200 billion dollars - by 2020 year. The governments of the two countries are not embarrassed by the economic problems in the world, but on the contrary, they see incentives to search for new options for mutually beneficial cooperation: “I fully support what Mr. Li Keqiang said about the need to respond to the current economic situation, market weakness, volatility markets - the need to look for new regimes, new ways, areas of cooperation, including including a number of challenges that our countries and our economies face. ”
"We need to go to new niches, and somewhere to increase physical volumes," the head of the Russian government added.
“The development of relations between our countries has really acquired the character of a special level, these are relations of strategic partnership and interaction, and this has penetrated the work of the governments of our states over the past year. The dialogue between our governments is very intensive, all the colleagues regularly communicate, ”Dmitry Medvedev quotes. "First channel".
So, we should note, Mr. Medvedev admitted that the “economic conjuncture” is not the same, but the goals remain ambitious, and there is “strategic partnership and interaction”. And yet the “visible fruits” described by the Russian prime minister, apparently, were somewhat surprised even by the well-worn Chinese.
It is not easy 17 December Zhao Yu from the state agency Xinhua gave a lengthy commentary on the economic future of Russia. The commentary, in the title, asked a direct (and probably rather offensive for Mr. Medvedev, more precisely, for the Kremlin) question: can Russia withstand the test of strength against the backdrop of a complex crisis?
Judging by the theses, scattered here and there in the text of the Chinese author, the answer is implied pessimistic.
According to Comrade Zhao Yu, Russia is now "going through a difficult period." The treasury in the country is still packed with "petrodollars": as before, they are "an important component of the economy of the Russian Federation."
Here are the sad data from Russian economic gurus: 1) The Ministry of Economic Development says that with the price of oil in 40 dollars per barrel, Russia's GDP will fall by 5 percent; 2) according to the Ministry of Finance estimates, in this case the budget will not be more than 3 trillion. rub.
But not the actual decline in world prices for black gold will strike the Russian economy at the very heart. The root of the crisis, that is one of the main causes of economic instability 2014-2015. in Russia, "the structural crisis of the economy, which began in the year 2012."
The analyst briefly describes the essence of such a crisis:
"Its essence lies in the de-industrialization of the economy and the decline of agriculture, and after its completion, as a rule, there is the impossibility of a rapid recovery of the manufacturing industry and the agricultural sector."
It puts pressure on Russia and the West. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, sanctions are in effect against the Russian Federation. Such obvious geopolitical tensions led to a decrease in the flow of investment in the Russian Federation.
At the same time, for Russian banks and enterprises the cost of foreign loans “increased significantly”.
Finally, inflation. Last year, the author recalls, the devaluation of the ruble against the US dollar and the euro amounted to 72,2% and 51,7%, respectively. The currency crisis led to a decrease in real incomes of the population and, of course, consumer demand.
According to Zhao Yu, it is impossible to get out of the systemic crisis without overcoming the “imbalance in the development of the financial and real sectors of the economy." And in Russia they are not only not overcome, but "continue to grow."
Oh yeah, the Russians developed an "anti-crisis plan." It implies: a) transition to a one-year budget (from 2016 year); b) the expansion of economic freedom while reducing the presence of the state in the economy; c) increasing the intellectual potential of Russians.
It does not seem that the Chinese believed in the validity of these points.
In addition to the economic crisis, Moscow also has to fight against terrorism, and at the same time improve relations with the United States. Recently, US Secretary of State John Kerry paid a visit to Moscow, said the journalist. V. Putin’s meeting with D. Kerry took more than three hours. But she "did not bring breakthroughs in relations between the two countries." On both sides, the analyst believes, “apparently, there is no willingness to make substantial concessions.”
Further, the material presents the opinion of the Director of the Institute of Russia at the Chinese Academy of Contemporary International Relations Feng Yujun.
He said that because of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia was in the gravest strategic impasse since the beginning of the 21st century. The sharp decline in oil prices, coupled with Western sanctions, led the Russian economy to a “depression”. Mistrust has increased significantly in Russian-American relations. Finally, Russia and NATO, as in the old days, began to consider each other as strategic opponents.
In the short and medium term, the material indicates, it will be difficult for the West to change the general policy regarding Russia.
What conclusion does the Chinese author make?
According to him, the Russians are able to overcome a difficult crisis by relying "on their own strength and intelligence." Also, they will help "effective cooperation with other countries."
Obviously, with China, add on my own. After all, he is our main partner, partner of the present and future. Moreover, a strategic partner. Mr. Medvedev will not lie: “The development of relations between our countries has really acquired the character of a special level, these are relations of strategic partnership and interaction ...”
By the way, there are no inaccuracies in the Xinhua material. Who can say that the Russian budget does not depend on oil? Yes, the Ministry of Finance itself will not say this. Who is ready to announce that the price of oil does not affect the Russian economy? It does not even occur to the Ministry of Economic Development. Who will refute the current exchange rate of the ruble against the euro and the dollar? Yes, there is no one to refute, the ruble falls almost every day. And foreign loans turned out to be incredibly expensive for Russian enterprises. And without loans over the hill, we have long been unable to. No one dares to declare a sudden increase in investment from abroad and the abolition of Western sanctions. De-industrialization of the economy is also not news. Even other military plants, as it turns out, do not live here, but survive. Apparently, inspired by Kremlin propaganda.
It is strange, of course, that the Chinese did not write anything about the outstanding successes of Rosnano and similar "intellectual" organizations. Evidently, Medvedev did not want to upset much, for whom it only remains to rely on "effective cooperation with other countries."
Chinese material is the same recognition of Russia as a raw materials appendage, only in other words. And with a different guideline: in the future, Russia will have the role of not a western, but a Chinese appendage. Sorry, strategic partner.
Russian experts are skeptical about the bright predictions voiced by Prime Minister Medvedev. Deputy Director of the Institute of Russian-Chinese Strategic Interaction Andrei Devyatov said "Free Press"that in cooperation between Russia and China "there is absolutely no dynamics":
“... The trade turnover between our countries this year has fallen by a third. They promised to cooperate on 100 billion dollars, our prime minister spoke of growth to 200 billion by 2020 year. But after all, Medvedev still counts in US dollars, thinking in categories of dollars! China decided to reply simply to notify us all about its position. The thing is that there is absolutely no dynamic in Russian-Chinese relations today! ”
The Chinese say: “Take a look at what’s happening in your country. We have a Chinese dream, but what do you have? ”China asks the question:“ How do you want to cooperate with us? ”“ And according to all the circumstances, it turns out, ”the expert noted,“ that we answer: “None”.
“How much have we been told about the“ Power of Siberia ”. But what about her? The Chinese are clearly not satisfied with the development of the project. The Xinhua Agency actually says that we are lying to Beijing. The Chinese always talk with the strong and responsible. Now they just let them know what they think of what is happening in Russia. ”
“The publication in Xinhua clearly indicates that Medvedev did not agree with the Chinese leadership, the situation is very simple,” said Andrei Ostrovsky, Deputy Director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - Apparently, the conversation was held in such a tone that the Chinese decided to express their discontent publicly. On the eve of the visit, I assumed that there would be problems at the talks, now the fears were confirmed. ”
According to the expert, the Chinese are worried about the fall in trade volumes. Why they fall is clear: the ruble collapsed. Previously, for the yuan was given 3,5 rubles, and today 11. The world price of oil has fallen. How to increase the turnover? For this, the expert believes, should change trading patterns. Now Russia supplies Celestial oil, and gets consumer goods and "some engineering products." And it is necessary to engage in serious projects, invest in production, develop joint scientific and technical projects.
In addition, China is putting pressure on Moscow, using "its economic power and the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West." Russia has no “trumps”. “Before, we could say in negotiations with the Chinese that we have the West,” said the expert. - But Europe has now decided to minimize the supply of energy from Russia. As a result, we may be with energy resources, but without markets. China is taking advantage of this. ”
“Can the publication in Xinhua be considered a manifestation of discontent by Medvedev personally?” Asked the “SP” correspondent of the interviewee.
“That's right,” he replied. “Russia is not written off from the accounts as a whole, but the government of Medvedev.”
That is why, let us add, namely, December 17, on the day of the end of Medvedev's visit, after the signing of all the documents, a “devastating” article appeared on Xinhua. The Russian government was given a clear message: you do not know how to work, you have brought Russia to a dead end, and you are not the ones who will show Russia the way out. The main thing that is being read between the lines in the Chinese article is that the government has brought Russian-Chinese relations to a dead end. Commodity turnover between the PRC and the Russian Federation only in 2015 fell by a third. How can a “world factory”, for which trade in manufactured consumer goods is the meaning and support of life, be happy about it?
After that, someone's cheerful statements about two hundred billion turnover to 2020 look, at best, as an empty promise. In the worst sense - in the words of a leader who lives in a parallel reality.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru