After Su-24 was shot down over Syria, and the crew commander was shot from the ground, and incomprehensible citizens with special equipment hunted the navigator for a long time and unsuccessfully, not a crisis, but a paramilitary condition arose in Russian-Turkish relations. That day I first saw Putin in a state of quiet rabies. The next day, a “deep freeze” of relations with Turkey began, and completely non-diplomatic expressions (from Russian officials) sounded to Erdogan. And cobblestones flew to the Turkish embassy ...
So, immediately after this, a mass of printed and (almost said non-printed) appeared, no - video messages. There were a lot of them, really a lot and, most importantly, mostly sincere and frank. And the essence, as some have already guessed, was in the following: “guys, let's live together!”. Exactly and nothing else. The appeals were from both the Turks and the Russians, but their essence was precisely this: "let's not agitate, let us all calm down." I also looked at part of the appeal of the press secretary of the Turkish embassy in Moscow (it was not enough to watch everything). He, too, in an offended voice, called for peace and was amazed at the hatred of the “Turkish citizens”. The opinion of the German press was similar: “the hot nature of Putin and Erdogan is the cause of all the problems in Russian-Turkish relations”. In general, an incident happened, let's calm down everything, and let's not flog a fever. Well, calmed down, Greenpeace saved the fever.
There is one unpleasant question: “what next?” That's how to live with all this? The incident, as a rule, is random in nature: the aircraft "collided" in a confined space, and someone did not survive the nerves. It happens in the Air Force of the third world and this does not happen. Well, even in this situation it was possible to call, apologize, say: “this is a mistake, Satan beguiled, I will be a reptile” (and indeed it is - a creeping creep!). But get out, wriggle out. Putin himself admitted that he was waiting ... waiting for the call. But no. Nobody apologized in principle. It was strictly stated that everything was done correctly and henceforth it will be so. And from this very moment the situation is completely out of control.
Although in reality this situation was not unique at all. During the five-day war with Georgia, our planes were actively getting off, as it turned out, not by Georgians. Ukraine very successfully “sold” its Buki to an independent Georgia. And they shot down Russian planes, protecting the land of Sakartvelo from "aggression". “But how did the Georgians master them so quickly?” You ask and demonstrate ignorance of the subject and political naivety. Georgians did not master them, missiles launched Ukrainian calculations. But this is already quite interesting: Ukraine, after all, was not at war with Russia? Ukraine at that time is our “reliable partner”. So what? And how to understand this? By the way, then many times I met the reasoning of the Ukrainians about the fact that we were losing money from them, and their children were cold there. And the old men are freezing. And we lupim money from them. Not in Slavonic, this is not fraternal - to beat money to the death of freezing people. Ukrainians reasoned on this topic very willingly. On the subject of the dead Russian pilots refused to argue categorically. It is not interesting for them to discuss it. And I like that, immediately found the information on the four Russian pilots killed. Do not brothers, speak?
I know what any Ukrainian will say: “Well, the lads drove up to Georgia, to cast fires from the Troch. They returned with money and fame, because they are free Cossacks! ”Ukrainian parliamentarians in this stories worried about the fact that the Buki were "sold" for a pittance. The fact that, for example, rockets to the Bucks were delivered from Russia and cannot be re-exported, was left behind the scenes. Also behind the scenes, it remains that if the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are being shot down by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, then this is the same - casus belli. What do you think? Under a foreign flag, speak? And I'm going to throw a dozen schemes on the go, as Russia can "take revenge" on Turkey, acting, for example, under the flag of Iraq. And very simple. But such excuses are not serious. As they say: everyone understood everything. I think it was then, in 2008, that Moscow began to develop plans for the "return of the Crimea." It’s just that the Kremlin’s inhabitants were finally convinced that Ukraine cannot be trusted in anything. Not at all to be trusted. In Ukraine, this "incident" did not cause any special emotions. Life is everyday.
For me personally, already then, in 2008, all kinds of “relations” with Ukraine ended. Finally and irrevocably. Because the delivery of Bukov to Georgia and the attack on the Russian Air Force is a very serious operation involving many dozens of officers. Here the "little gang" is not enough. And our Ukrainian "brothers" in the officer's shoulder straps all this superbly organized. And no one outraged or protested this. Everything was perfectly understood and accepted from the very beginning. Worked like a Swiss watch. People say freeze? Oh well. In general, these actions of "free Cossacks" put Ukraine under attack. According to international law, Russia could well begin in response to shoot down Ukrainian combat aircraft. Symmetrical. By the way, it was in the Crimea that there was some kind of abnormal concentration of Ukrainian units. Why, I ask? Including air defense units. So the return of the Crimea is not a “surprise” or treachery. This is a very serious thoughtful response, it is a retaliatory move. For the downed Russian aircraft from the Ukrainian side, too, no one repented or apologized. So it is necessary. It is in the order of things for a Euro-oriented power. No need to escalate, no need to spoil relations with the fraternal Ukrainian people, well, several Russian planes were shot down, well, the pilots were killed. It happens to everyone.
Then somehow happened in 2014, the massive fall of Ukrainian combat "Litaka." It's a shame. It's a shame and even painful, but there's nothing you can do. No need to pump up. Do not spoil the relationship between the fraternal peoples. Strangely, this is generally all: first, people declare their desire to build friendly, mutually beneficial relations with Russia, then they begin to defiantly shoot down her planes. Sly there is some kind of logic, frankly speaking - gray-brown-crimson logic. After the attack on the “drying”, all the Turks began to broadcast with one voice: “We want peace and friendship.” We also wanted peace and friendship, especially with Turkey. This is me without any mockery. We really wanted peace, friendship and cooperation with the Republic of Turkey. And this is not propaganda and not empty words. But the demonstrative shooting of the Russian pilot in the air and the hunt for the navigator on the ground put a fat point on this issue. It was not an accident or an “incident”, it was a well-planned operation. Again, dozens of officers of the Turkish army were involved in its organization, and it was carried out with the permission and under the direct control of the Turkish ruling elite. And to apologize for their deeds, these glorious guys refused flatly.
You see, there is a gap in the vision of the situation: the Turks believe that everything is OK and you can continue to be friends. We are beginning to be accused of unwillingness to solve the case in peace, at the negotiating table. And Russia is not ready to accept the execution of its pilot. And there is a kind of dead end. Serious political and logical deadlock. The Turks, having shot Peshkov, considered the question closed. And they are outraged by the negative attitude towards themselves in Russia. Such a fucking clash of cultures. So this, it seems to me - to the question of "peace" and "restraint", which we are actively imposing. Allegedly, this will give us plus a hundred points to the rating. You try, try - just say it. Alas, it does not give anything, rather takes away.
Think again: Turkey is absolutely calmly shooting down a nuclear mega-power combat aircraft. And silence. And everyone thinks that this is, in general, normal. It remains to understand what could be the basis for the start of hostilities? The landing of American Marines in St. Petersburg? Or also not, no need to escalate? See Peterhof, Hermitage and return home? Those who are agitating for “restraint” in this matter (and there are many of them) do not understand the main thing: the world has taken a step towards the nuclear abyss. You can give up one, two, three, but sooner or later you will have to answer. And here it turns out that you “acquired” so much that the answer can be only one - that is the biggest red button. So do not press it! Save the world from nuclear madness! Alas, as it has already become clear to all, Russia is not going to merge quietly. That is, if someone thinks that shooting down Russian planes is in the order of things, in Russia they can suddenly decide what to use once tactical nuclear weapons is nothing, nothing, no big deal ...
It is strange that everyone is analyzing the situation with the Crimea either “in centuries” or here and now, but no one connects the “return of Crimea to home” and the Russian planes shot down over Georgia. And the connection is direct, but seven years have passed, and all lovers of geopolitics have forgotten everything. And that case showed that in the event of war, Ukraine would shoot down Russian planes and block a fleet in the Crimea. Organizing conclusions were made. But seven years have passed, and no one conducts analogies. Incidentally, this was not “revenge”, but a clear, competent, thoughtful policy. The Black Sea Fleet is too serious for its activities to depend on the decisions of clowns from Kiev. Here's how - secure on the basis of. But who would remember how it all began ... People en masse are gullible and prone to PR: now, if Putin, 08 in August, stood in a beautiful position, called Yushchenko creeping and vowing to return the Crimea (but did not return results), it would be all remembered and told their children. And so ... uninteresting, non-spectacular. Here Poroshenko - well done! Good girl! He regularly promises to return the Crimea and makes a rating on it! And will promise! (The masses love professional storytellers.)
About the same we have with Turkey. Russia cannot but respond to the destruction of its aircraft, but this is not an immediate blow to the destruction. This is, in fact, a serious change in Russian foreign policy. It is no accident that Putin openly declared that he was waiting for an apology from the Turkish side; he really didn’t want these very political changes. But Erdogan was silent, like a statue. No, not that: Erdogan made a lot of loud, contradictory statements. But he did not apologize. Here the contradiction is very serious and inherently insoluble: the Turks insist that their actions are completely natural. And we hear explanations: Erdogan could not do otherwise for internal political reasons, and he cannot apologize for the same internal political reasons. What do we have to do with our Yars? Imagine that you are a very, very serious person, drive in the black and the biggest jeep and in the back seat you carry a Maxim machine gun with endless ammunition. And all of you are afraid and wary. But once you came out for a cigarette to the kiosk (Turkish, by the way, the word), and then the boy hits your face and takes the money. So, what is next? How to live with it?
Who, sorry, after this, our Yarsy are interesting? Ah, in a very special case, when the "evil Alienas" arrive and Barack Obama gives an order? If you shoot down Russian airplanes - this is normal, then where is that very “thin red line” that you cannot go by? We are offered to resolve the issue at the negotiating table, well, we decide, this becomes a precedent and tomorrow the Poles are knocking down the “drying” next to Kaliningrad and are waiting for negotiations. And get a "yadren-loaf." And all in shock. You see, this is not about a downed plane, this is about the realization of the possibility of attacking Russia and not taking responsibility for it. Everything is much more serious. If you have a loaded shotgun in your hands, but the punks in front of you consider you a coward and a loser, then you will have to amaze them a lot. It is not enough to have a gunshot weapon, "Radishes" should be convinced of your willingness to use it. Otherwise they will attack and ... it will turn out completely bad.
That is, as a result of such a “peacefulness” and “compliance,” a non-illusory nuclear crisis may arise. Namely, the Gopniks are convinced that you will not shoot all the same, they rush at you with all of them, shots are heard ... The Georgian army fired on the Russian peacekeepers, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted artillery fire on Russian territory, now the Turks have shot down the "drying". The trend, however. And each time we are offered to calm down and not to freak out. Apparently, Putin calmed down so much that he mentioned that we do not need nuclear weapons against terrorists. "I hope never will be required." So it goes. And before that, he practically called Erdogan an accomplice of terrorists, which seemed to hint. And translated into normal language, this means that it is not excluded. Right here and now and so that no one leaves “disappointed”. Yes, the Soviet Union possessed the most powerful army in the world and undertook the obligation: “not to use nuclear weapons first”. And he had many allies. But, alas, we are not the Soviet Union. To carry out the defense of modern Russia from NATO without nuclear weapons is an absolute utopia.
And I have a bad feeling that sooner or later I will have to “get it off the shelf.” Just because as a result of the policy of "openness, openness and democratization," we were no longer taken seriously. And then some Turkey hits the Russian plane, shoots the pilot and takes it on video. If we “swallow” this, after a couple of years Latvia and Finland will wipe our legs about us and then “invite to the negotiating table in order to settle the differences that have arisen”. But this is strange! The Soviet Union was a totalitarian communist monster that no one loved, and Russia, as it were, a bright market capitalist republic that everyone should love. However, something began to beat us instead. Again, ideology does not work.
By the way, the introduction of sanctions is also from this very series: “what do they do, these Russians?” I don’t want to say that you can solve all the problems with “fists”, but still with a revolver and a kind word you usually do more than just having a kind word. Someone who, as Capone, understood something in American political mechanics, and he was not at all and not so much in touch with the movers and his mouths. Here on the site a comrade from Israel referred to nuclear weapons as “Doomsday Guns”. It sounds really frightening. And Russia has a full arsenal of such weapons, and even Shoigu recently mentioned that more than 95% of the launches of nuclear strategic forces of the Russian Federation are in a state of constant readiness. And, as we all understand, Russia spends a lot of money. Just monstrous. "And we have sho with a goose?" - I would like to ask. Here, again, there are a lot of excellent articles on the Russian strategic nuclear forces network. Great articles, great weapons ... everything is very pathetic, but who is this weapon holding back? Turkey beat the Russian bomber in full confidence that the "otvetki" will not follow. After the attack on the nuclear superpower from the Turkish side, a statement was made that the attack on Turkey was an attack on NATO.
And after that, the statements (internal Russian) sounded that, in attacking Turkey, we are being substituted for NATO. Great, great: nuclear weapons, at least on our part, have ceased to be a deterrent. And how to live on? What if Russian planes continue to shoot down? (Not necessarily the Turks.) After which account of the aircraft can you hit back? Again and again: we fall into a kind of psychological trap - our opponents begin to think that the “shotgun” in our hands is a fake one. And so the red line is blurring more and more. And this is a very dangerous trend. In Hollywood films, this theme is gorgeous and repeatedly played: someone holds a shotgun in his hands shaking with fear, and the one he is aiming at is getting closer and closer, step by step. Whether you like it or not, you will have to shoot at a certain point. When vodka ends - the snack turns into just food. When the “Doomsday Weapon” ceases to be a deterrent — it simply turns into a weapon.
I agree that Russia, as a state capable of (along with the United States) completely burning the planet, bears an enormous responsibility. But for some reason no one condemned the attack of the Turkish Air Force on such a state. Everyone is sitting and waiting for something. The position of modern Russia is quite paradoxical and unique, this has not happened in history yet: it lost the most powerful army and allies in the world, but preserved and increased its nuclear potential. But at the suggestion of the United States, the Georgian eagles attack the armed forces of this country, here the Ukrainian “free Cossacks” shoot down its aircraft over Georgia, here the APU beat on Russian territory, so the Turks defiantly destroy Su-24 and its commander. That is, our nuclear potential does not stop anyone from anything. “Solid” sanctions were imposed against Russia, with the aim of collapsing its economy, even the field of sports (football and athletics) are used for political attacks. And the situation is not going to improve at all. The very "hybrid" war is already being waged against us. It will not be better, it is not necessary unnecessary illusions.
But at the same time, as if our nuclear potential is not seriously considered by anyone and its proactive use is not predicted. But after all, Russian officials have been talking about the possibility of such a development for a very long time and referring to the example of the USSR, which guaranteed the non-use of nuclear weapons first. Russia, which is not at all the USSR by geopolitical possibilities, refused to give such guarantees flatly. Yeltsin repeatedly stated this: “We are a nuclear power”. Even Yeltsin. But for some reason, our neighbors on the planet are not taken seriously. Under Putin, this was repeated several times, and with a very serious face. But no one believes this, everyone perceives it as a stupid public relations campaign for internal use (“to raise the rating of a tyrant”). So, for example: yes, the EU is superior to the Russian Federation in economic opportunities very, very significantly and the sanctions for Russia are very painful. But, for example, Merkel has no nuclear weapons. But she does not consider its use in the "Vaterlanda." It just leaves out the brackets and continues to build its policy as if there are no Russian warheads. “Doomsday Guns”, understand. That is, it proceeds from the idea that driving a nuclear superpower with economic methods is quite a safe option.
So, I'm afraid, it's like with the Crimea: Ukraine was warned two million times and three million times tried to agree. Did not work. Nobody just listened or heard us. The “annexation” of the Crimea was sudden only for absolutely deaf and blind Kiev politicians. Russia clearly promised that the base in the Crimea will not surrender under any circumstances. This situation reminds me of an ancient joke about the rising costs of vodka and an alcoholic father: “Does this mean that you will drink less now? “No, that means, now you will eat less!” Instead of American bases in Crimea, Russian Crimea appeared. Suddenly. But they constantly warned ... It is comfortable for the European Union to lead a confrontation in the economic sphere, well, everyone has their own strengths. But in a war, even if it is a “hybrid” one, each side will inevitably be forced to use its main weapon, regardless of the consequences.
You see, this variant is said in the spirit that “no one wants a nuclear war.” This is an absolutely correct idea, but for some reason this idea implies a completely incorrect conclusion that Russia’s initiative to use nuclear weapons in principle cannot be considered, and any attacks on the Russian state in the financial and economic sphere and any other non-nuclear field are completely safe. The logic by which Russia can be treated as, for example, Iran, is very, very risky (Russia, unlike Iran, and nuclear weapons and the means of delivery are ok). But here, as with the Crimea or Abkhazia: while it did not happen - no one believed in it and did not seriously consider when it happened - hysteria and cries for territorial integrity arose. Could Georgia save / restore it? Is complete. Could Ukraine save the Crimea? Easy. But they simply ignored all signals through diplomatic channels from the Russian side. Their friend - America - the richest, most developed and powerful country in the world. What kind of Russia are they? Diplomacy did not work in principle. Because that's exactly the consequences.
Next, I fear, it will be the same: I strongly advise you to watch the speech of Sergey Lavrov at the security conference in Munich in February 2015 of the year (again February!). You will not regret: he tried to explain something, but he was frankly rude and laughed at his speeches. He just did not listen and did not hear. Well, what kind of “new European security architecture” will arise after that? The trouble is that all we have left of the Soviet superpower is it - the most powerful nuclear weapon in the world (which, by the way, is a fact). Our economy is very modest, Eastern Europe today is looking into the mouth of the United States, but “no one wants a nuclear war.” I'm afraid there is very little dependent on the "wants" and "unwillingness." If our European neighbors, “not wanting a nuclear war,” respect Russian interests, this is one thing, if an absurdist conclusion is drawn from “unwillingness” that such a war is impossible and Russia’s hard pressure begins - this is quite another. For a nuclear "response", an attack on Russia should not be at all nuclear, no matter how paradoxical it may sound. Variations are possible. In general, you do not need to take important things out of the brackets.