Military Review

"Shocking" forecast: oil will rise in price, the ruble will strengthen, the poor will get rich, Trump will not choose

119
Steen Jacobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, who spoke at the presentation of the forecast “Shocking 2016 predictions,” surprised the public with bold statements. When everyone talks about the collapse of the oil market, this man promised the price of Brent crude to 100 dollars per barrel. Already in the coming year. And really, why postpone it? However, it is necessary to take into account the reservation of the soothsayers: 100 dollars will only be a surge, a short-lived phenomenon. This number is good for headlines in the media, but it occupies an insignificant place in the forecasts of economists.




Voicing his “shocking predictions”, Mr. Chief Economist emphasized that his predictions are not an official forecast on behalf of Saxo Bank. He also informed the public that his assumptions are “more plausible” than those judgments that allow widespread public opinion. With regard to the likelihood of their implementation, then, according to Jacobsen, one or even two promises can come true.

Here are the key statements of Stein Jacobsen mentioned.

Iran, which is about to enter the oil market, will not have a significant impact on prices, since this state is already exporting oil, bypassing Western sanctions.

The average price of oil in the world in the next 10 years will be 40-50 dollars per barrel.

However, there will be a short period of price hike. The most important role in the rise in price of oil will be played by OPEC. The cartel members simply will not stand the pressure on the state budgets of their countries and panic. The time will come when OPEC decides to reduce the supply of black gold to the world market. Of course, this decision will lead to higher prices. Investors will take the so-called long positions in oil. At the peak of the price of raw materials will reach hundreds of dollars per barrel. In the future, quotes on stock exchanges, the chief economist believes, will inevitably fall. In 2016, prices will range from 50 to 70 dollars per barrel.

As you can see, the range is quite wide. This is probably one of those forecasts, which, according to the analyst himself, can really come true.

Further, the economist predicted the strengthening of the Russian ruble. The forecast is logical. In the raw country where oil, there and the ruble.

According to the forecaster of Saxo Bank, by the end of the coming year, the rise in oil prices, coupled with an excessively slow increase in the US Fed rates, will allow the ruble to strengthen by about 20% relative to the two-currency basket (0,55 dollar and 0,45 euro).

There is one more factor leading to the strengthening of the Russian currency: Steen Jacobsen believes that the West in 2016 will lift sanctions from Russia. This will be connected with the decision of world leaders to start a united struggle against terrorism.

Jacobsen does not even rule out a jump in the Russian currency by 50%.

As the ruble strengthens, the dollar staggers slightly. The economist recalls that during 2015, the dollar strengthened against the euro. But next year everything will be the opposite. Forecasted exchange rate at the end of the year 2016: 1,23 dollar for 1,00 euro. Where does this opinion come from? In "Saxo Bank" they think that after raising the Fed's rate, the dollar will peak, and then it will begin to drift towards weakening.

The market for corporate bonds forecasters promise a speedy collapse. Quite soon, in 2016. It comes to the point that they will stop trading these securities. Experts are confident that the stupid and overly “aggressive” Fed policy can lead to this result. Unreasonable actions of the Fed will eventually lead to a collapse of quotations.

There is a political component in the "promises" from Saxo Bank. She also "shocked" the reader.

Potential US presidential candidate Donald Trump, who is now at the peak of popularity among voters and in demand from the press, will not be the next president. Moreover, an expressive billionaire will overwhelm the entire election campaign of the Republican Party. Republicans are too late to realize the inadmissibility of the election candidates Trump. They will have time, of course, to put up another candidate, since there are no numbers for them, but he will not be able to provide adequate resistance to the Democratic candidate. As a result, a new Democrat will sit on the throne in the White House, and a protracted crisis will begin in the Republican Party. In the future, Republicans will lose congressional elections.

The economist believes that the campaign against Trump is gaining momentum in the US today. The most numerous audience stands against the billionaire: the relatively young, liberal, educated and unemployed Americans - the “millennial generation”. These people will give votes to the Democratic candidate. It will be a difficult victory for the Democrats: it will happen thanks to the "demoralization of voters" and the crisis of the Republicans.

In Europe, in the meantime, they will build ... socialism.

According to Saxo Bank experts, in the EU there will be more equality in 2016. The endless crisis of growing inequality against the backdrop of mass unemployment (it will exceed 10%) will lead Europe to the introduction of a "single basic income." The purpose of the innovation is to help the low-income population. The forecast is not taken from the ceiling. Corresponding ideas are being discussed today in France, Switzerland, Finland, Spain.

According to the current estimates of the International Labor Organization, 123 million people in the European Union (about a quarter of Europe’s population) are at risk of falling below the poverty line right now.

For goods that are commonly attributed to luxury, in 2016, the demand will fall by half, according to analysts of Saxo Bank. The luxury sector will be in deep crisis.

In short, the rich will become poorer, the poor richer.

And now a little about the forecasts from other experts of the bank. These forecasts concern Russia as well.

The head of Saxo Bank’s strategy in the foreign exchange market, John Hardy, believes that international investors will again invest in the Russian economy.

John Hardy also noted that the exacerbation of the geopolitical situation allowed Russia and the West to sit at the negotiating table. This change will lead to a way out of the confrontation in the future. But precisely because of the political confrontation between the West and Russia, the value of Russian assets has been under pressure for more than a year.

Ole Hansen, head of trading strategies at Saxo Bank on the commodity market, gave a deeper forecast about oil prices. He believes that at the beginning of 2016, the oil market will remain under pressure due to high overproduction rates, and Iran will in the short term still affect price declines. In the first quarter of 2016, the price of Brent blend oil will fall even beyond the lows of the 2009 recession of the year. The cost of OPEC oil will also fall to its lowest level since 2009 of the year. But every cloud has a silver lining: this will lead to a reduction in production by those countries that are not part of OPEC. The cartel will take advantage of this and suddenly, for world market players, will reduce production. The price will go up; at its peak, it will approach $ 100 per barrel. Well, then everything will be as Steen Jacobsen said: oil will fall in price to 50 or 70 dollars per barrel. However, geopolitical tensions in the 2016 year will provoke short-term price highs.

The forecasts of Russian expert bankers, we will add in conclusion, even optimistic ones, slightly differ from the “shocking” scenarios of Saxo Bank specialists. For example, analysts of Alfa Bank predict that for 1 a dollar at the beginning of 2016 will give 80 rubles. At the end of this year, about 75 rubles will be given for a dollar, experts say, whose opinion leads Gazeta.ru.

However, after Q1 2016, the ruble will begin to regain positions. And by the end of next year, the average annual rate will be 70 rubles. for a dollar.

As you can see, the forecast is optimistic. But the rainbow indicators of economists from Saxo Bank are far from him.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
119 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Same lech
    Same lech 18 December 2015 06: 34 New
    11
    “Shocking” forecast: oil will rise in price, the ruble will strengthen, the poor will get rich,

    What are you ... I'm shocked, as far as I remember, our wooden ruble always rolls down an inclined path, no stability.
    I have a strong belief now that in rubles, saving and accumulating for the ordinary population of RUSSIA is harmful to our own health (we need a more reliable ruble substitute).
    If the Americans start massively throwing their oil into the market, the ruble will fall even lower ... the prospects for our economy are unimportant .... we are still stomping the Kudrinsky road to a happy future.
    1. Sober
      Sober 18 December 2015 06: 46 New
      43
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      I have a strong belief now that in rubles, saving and accumulating for the ordinary population of RUSSIA is harmful to their own health.

      This is if the population has something to postpone.
      1. mirag2
        mirag2 18 December 2015 07: 10 New
        +8
        Take a look at the forecasts of this bank for past years:
        here for example for 2014:
        http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/37030
        This bank offers predictions "which are unlikely, but possible ...".
        1. aktanir
          aktanir 18 December 2015 08: 26 New
          +2
          even somehow surprisingly, but perhaps for the first time I really want to believe in American forecasts. Let it be as he predicts !!!
          1. Canep
            Canep 18 December 2015 15: 33 New
            +1
            Quote: aktanir
            Let it be as he predicts !!!

            Of course you can hope for the best, but you need to prepare for Hillary Clinton in the White House (I wonder if Bill will play a role, not the first lady?), A dollar at 100 rubles (450 tenge), and oil at 20 dollars, and inflation at 20 -thirty%.
            1. S_last
              S_last 18 December 2015 16: 46 New
              -2
              With oil at 20 per barrel, and provided there is no budget deficit of 100, there will be no. Maybe 200, if you look with optimism into the future.
          2. Felix2
            Felix2 19 December 2015 05: 25 New
            0
            This is the Danes
        2. Gomunkul
          Gomunkul 19 December 2015 08: 46 New
          0
          Take a look at the forecasts of this bank for past years:
          You don’t need to look anywhere to understand that the forecast is just nonsense, just read one phrase and everything becomes clear:
          the poor get rich
          laughing
      2. mihasik
        mihasik 18 December 2015 08: 29 New
        13
        Quote: Sober
        This is if the population has something to postpone.

        There is no money, all are poor, but on holidays all places in back-up establishments are occupied fellow drinks
        1. atalef
          atalef 18 December 2015 08: 31 New
          +1
          Quote: mihasik
          Quote: Sober
          This is if the population has something to postpone.

          There is no money, all are poor, but on holidays all places in back-up establishments are occupied fellow drinks

          Well, this is like the well-known statement of VseDOFeni - people buy on credit because they have extra money.
          1. afdjhbn67
            afdjhbn67 18 December 2015 12: 06 New
            +1
            Quote: atalef
            VseDOFeni approval

            Smiled, hello Sasha, someone I have not seen for a long time or also 37 years old (Thermidor-November laughing) did not survive?
            1. atalef
              atalef 18 December 2015 14: 15 New
              0
              Quote: afdjhbn67
              Quote: atalef
              VseDOFeni approval

              Smiled, hello Sasha, someone I have not seen for a long time or also 37 years old (Thermidor-November laughing) did not survive?

              Probably 10 years, without correspondence, for
              Article 58-7. Undermining state industry, transport, trade, money circulation or the credit system, as well as cooperation committed for counter-revolutionary purposes by appropriate use of state institutions and enterprises, or counteracting their normal activities, as well as using state institutions and enterprises or counteracting their activities, committed in the interests of former owners or interested capitalist organizations, i.e. industrial sabotage: the punishment is similar to Article 58-2
        2. veksha50
          veksha50 18 December 2015 11: 32 New
          +4
          Quote: mihasik
          There is no money, all are poor, but on holidays all places in back-up establishments are occupied



          Hmm ... The population is about 146 million people ... And what percentage of these millions is the number of places in these "out of the way" places ???
          1. EvgNik
            EvgNik 18 December 2015 11: 54 New
            +4
            Quote: veksha50
            And what percentage of these millions is the number of places in these "spree" places ???

            And at home in the kitchen - why not a place? Yes, for your potatoes, cabbage, cucumbers, a couple of jars of lecho and more there is more. No, I don’t want to go to a restaurant, it's better at home.
            1. veksha50
              veksha50 18 December 2015 20: 05 New
              0
              Quote: EvgNik
              No, I don’t want to go to a restaurant, it's better at home.



              Thats exactly what I mean... drinks
          2. Extraneous
            Extraneous 18 December 2015 11: 57 New
            +3
            a historical analysis conducted by some institute there gave such information at the time: during a severe crisis, revenues in the entertainment and restaurant business sharply increase.
            Psychological shift: people begin to live one day.
            1. atalef
              atalef 18 December 2015 14: 18 New
              +2
              Quote: Stranger
              a historical analysis conducted by some institute there gave such information at the time: during a severe crisis, revenues in the entertainment and restaurant business sharply increase.
              Psychological shift: people begin to live one day.

              Feast in Time of Plague
      3. wei
        wei 18 December 2015 11: 46 New
        16
        This is if the population has something to postpone.

        Of course there is (or rather it was)
        By the 90s, parents had money for a cooperative apartment "a crisis"to the second crisis in the country "a crisis"to the third by car "a crisis". And such people from the beginning
        there was 100 million then 50 to 3rd left 25 of the fourth crisis will not be ...
        Just read an article I agree with
        Beijing posted a killer comment yesterday on the state of our economy. Russia is in a strategic impasse, and its economy is in a systemic crisis, from which no quick exit is visible. Xinhua News Agency placed such characteristics of the Russian Federation among the main world news. The essence of the structural crisis in the Russian Federation is the de-industrialization of the economy and the decline of agriculture, the Chinese say. Thus, the official mass media of the Middle Kingdom celebrated the completion of the many-day visit of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to the PRC.

        and what conclusions does Medvedev draw
        The oil routes by which we deliver it to China are supplies worth tens of billions of dollars that we are already paid. These are already implemented projects, these are investments, ”Medvedev said.

        investment in what ??? The Chinese already say - Anatoly build factories, plow the land, we have already given you money ... but this windup investment, investment ... sorry I could not resist
        1. EvgNik
          EvgNik 18 December 2015 12: 03 New
          10
          Quote: wei
          "crisis", to the second crisis to the dacha "crisis", to the third to the car "crisis"

          We had to the first robbery (not crisis, namely robbery) in the Urals with a stroller. Compensation received - only on a children's scooter. And still wonder: where so many billionaires? And now do not rob? Big salaries for office plankton and small salaries for workers. This is pure robbery. Selkhoe producers rob even more abruptly.
        2. Atrix
          Atrix 18 December 2015 12: 13 New
          +8
          Quote: wei
          Anatoly build factories, plow the land, we have already given you money

          What is the point of building factories, plowing the land when it is easier to pump oil and gas. The farmer looked at youtube and said they wanted to close his fire safety for the fact that the doors on 2cm are already what they should be, isn’t this nonsense. And you say build something.
          I realized one thing: our states (CIS countries) do not need the middle class as such.
        3. atalef
          atalef 18 December 2015 14: 36 New
          +6
          Quote: wei
          and what conclusions does Medvedev draw
          The oil routes by which we deliver it to China are supplies worth tens of billions of dollars that we are already paid. These are already implemented projects, these are investments, ”Medvedev said.
          investment in what ??? The Chinese already say - Anatoly build factories, plow the land, we have already given you money ... but this windup investment, investment ... sorry I could not resist

          Rosneft sells 29% of the Taas-Yuryakh Siberian field to the Chinese company Skyland Petroleum. Earlier on Friday it was announced the sale of 20% of the British B5 field

          Rosneft, the state-owned corporation that accounts for more than half of Russia's export revenue, will partially be owned by China in 2016. This was announced today, December 16, by the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov, reports the Russian state news agency ITAR-TASS.
          We are ready and are taking the necessary steps to sell the 19,5% stake in Rosneft, ”said Anton Siluanov. - We have high hopes for him. We think that in ruble terms it cost how much. The Ministry of Economic Development is addressing this issue so that next year we can privatize part of the Rosneft package. We believe that in rubles this is about 500-550 billion rubles. Not lower than 500 billion rubles. For the company itself, this will be only a plus, and foreign companies, including Chinese, will be able to take part in the transaction.

          Now let’s take a look at this matter broader. so to speak
          Was Yukos - at least don’t say it paid taxes, but Putin decided that Yukos was robbing Russia
          therefore
          1. They broke up Yukos, despite private investors - they threw everyone and got Rosneft (led by Sechin)
          2. Rosneft, scored dogs - for the most tomatoes, and specifically--
          In ruble terms, Rosneft's debt in 2014 increased by 31,4% to 2,5 trillion rubles., the management’s analysis of the financial condition and performance of Rosneft says.

          In 2015, the company must repay $ 23,5 billion, in 2016 - $ 9,3 billion, in 2017 - $ 11,3 billion, in 2018 - $ 5,5 billion, in 2019 - $ 2,4 billion, in 2020 and beyond - $ 15,6, 2014 billion, the presentation said. The amount of cash in accounts and short-term financial assets at the end of 16,7 amounted to $ XNUMX billion
          Net profit of Rosneft under IFRS for 2014 decreased by 9,8% to 350 billion rubles
          1. mihasik
            mihasik 19 December 2015 10: 32 New
            0
            Quote: atalef
            Rosneft, the state-owned corporation that accounts for more than half of Russia's export revenue, will partially be owned by China in 2016.

            Correction!)
            According to Medvedev: "There are no state corporations in Russia. There are joint-stock companies with state participation in Russia. So there you go!) Listen to our Chairman of the Trust! Or the Trust? Or the Government?)
        4. atalef
          atalef 18 December 2015 14: 38 New
          +4
          3Of course, Rosneft did not offend its top managers and got confused by megaprojects
          Rosneft megaprojects valued at 30% of Russia's GDP
          Rosneft’s announced plans - the takeover of TNK-BP, the development of offshore and Venezuelan oil fields, as well as the construction and modernization of refineries - are estimated at between $ 418 billion and $ 638 billion (see table at www.vedomosti.ru). This is approximately 20-30% of Russia's GDP for 2013, or 98,6-150% of budget expenditures (at the Central Bank rate on 13.11.2012/200/300). Igor Sechin, the president of the state oil company, estimated investments in the development of the Arctic shelf of the Kara Sea alone at $ XNUMX-XNUMX billion

          But there was a crisis in oil prices and what do we have?
          Rosneft (state corporation) and therefore debts are government debts
          China will buy up an impoverished and half-ruined company for some 50-70 billion. This is less than its debts. those. Russia will not receive anything really for it - it will repay debts. (Partially)
          Well, of course, it’s worth remembering the 50 billion lawsuit from the shareholders of Yukos.
          As a result, debts on citizens are a profit for the Chinese.
          1. andj61
            andj61 18 December 2015 20: 57 New
            +2
            Quote: atalef
            But there was a crisis in oil prices and what do we have?
            Rosneft (state corporation) and therefore debts are government debts

            Well, I couldn’t, I couldn’t ... request
            Quote: atalef
            China will buy up an impoverished and half-ruined company for some 50-70 billion. This is less than its debts. those. Russia will not receive anything really for it - it will repay debts. (Partially)

            Quote: atalef
            As a result, debts on citizens are a profit for the Chinese.

            For this amount, China will only gain access to one or a maximum of two deposits. And that will do it only by anticipating an increase in oil prices. After all, if the Chinese share your opinion that cheap oil is for a long time, then there is no sense in investing them in the oil industry! Cheaper to buy in the market without spending your money! laughing
            Salute to electricians! hi And an electrician from Soviet times is similar to a transformer: it gets 220, it gives 127 to its wife, and it buzzes the rest! drinks
      4. Aleksandr72
        Aleksandr72 18 December 2015 11: 51 New
        +6
        Apparently yes, the Russians have nothing to put aside in their money-box. But how then to explain the mass psychosis (you cannot say otherwise), when quite recently, in anticipation of a financial collapse (the crisis has already come), ordinary residents of Russia in large quantities bought not a survival kit (buckwheat, salt, matches), but much more expensive goods - televisions, computers , furniture, some even apartments with cars. "Where is the money, Zin?" So yes, the inhabitants of Russia have no money, from the word at all. Apparently they spent everything on office equipment with cars. Maybe wrong, but ... all of this took place.
        And expert Steen Jacobsen with his "forecasts" is a real pro-Putin and pro-Russian hurray-patriot (please do not take this statement seriously, this is banter laughing )
        I have the honor. hi
    2. atalef
      atalef 18 December 2015 08: 16 New
      0
      Quote: The same Lech
      “Shocking” forecast: oil will rise in price, the ruble will strengthen, the poor will get rich,

      .

      Oh, sorry VseDoFeni disappeared somewhere.
      Practically his forecast.
      1. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 18 December 2015 12: 12 New
        +2
        Quote: atalef
        Oh, sorry VseDoFeni disappeared somewhere.

        He himself answered - from Rosneft to Sakho-Bank ..
        In general, this forecast is famous from year to year for a minimal hit on the target — no more than a hangover — as now, the other day he ran and chuckled and forgot, Oleg apparently pinned - enough for the article .. hi
    3. BLOND
      BLOND 18 December 2015 08: 30 New
      +5
      As the largest consumer of oil, the United States is a leader in oil imports.


      If the Americans start massively throwing their oil into the market, the ruble will fall even lower ...
      1. BLOND
        BLOND 18 December 2015 08: 58 New
        +3
        According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2013 the United States imported 7,7 million barrels of oil per day, which is 2 million barrels less than in 2008.

        Moreover, it is worth noting that, in an amount of 2,1 million barrels per day, oil products, as well as diesel fuel, gasoline and jet engine fuel, were imported. At the same time, the United States exported 3,6 million petroleum products.


        Well, argue minus ...!
        1. veksha50
          veksha50 18 December 2015 11: 39 New
          +3
          Quote: BLOND
          Well, argue minus ...!



          I’m not a minus to you, but put a plus for the analysis of the alleged inconsistency of the two phrases ...

          Maybe someone did not understand the difference between the import of crude oil and the export of products made from it ...

          Well, maybe someone does not know the raw materials policy of the USA, which (I knew back in the distant 70s) that many of their explored minerals are reserved, preserved, and for today's needs they are simply purchased from exporting countries ... I don’t remember which of their presidents (it seems Carter still) answered the journalists' question about such alleged absurdity: WE are now able to buy IMPOSSIBLE resources, while preserving YOURSELF ... But when they (these resources) come to exhaustion, we (USA) will be on a horse ...

          PS In general, such logic is not without meaning ...
          1. Xsanchez
            Xsanchez 18 December 2015 13: 07 New
            +3
            There is only another problem: oil is now a renewable resource. Just read the theory of the origin of oil.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 18 December 2015 09: 08 New
        +3
        What did you want to say with these quotes from the text? If the fact that the country is leading in the import of oil cannot massively throw its oil into the market, then I will put +. If the United States begins to trade in its oil (and it needs to be taken somewhere), then our ruble in this case is unlikely to threaten. But if they trade in unaccounted for someone else’s oil, such as IGilovskaya, then yes, there will be pressure on the ruble. Just as pressure is being put on our ruble, only because the Americans promised to lift the embargo on oil trading (Obama in my opinion has not yet signed).
        1. BLOND
          BLOND 18 December 2015 10: 45 New
          +5
          I will answer your questions, as I see them:
          - yes, the United States, as an importer, cannot "throw" oil into the market (it will have to buy it right there, and we know that the price of oil is quite dependent on data on oil reserves and production from the US Department of Energy)
          And the lifting of the embargo is populist in nature (although for the same purpose - pressure on the price of oil - i.e., on the ruble)
          - and ISIS (the eastern branch of the CIA) sells oil to the United States ... and Turkey ... that Turkey is a "pipeline" country and a "switchman" country in the near future
          The goal of all this alone is to dump Russia into the abyss - the winner takes everything
        2. The comment was deleted.
    4. The comment was deleted.
    5. Geronimo73
      Geronimo73 18 December 2015 11: 52 New
      +3
      that ruble that you call wooden, i.e. Soviet - didn’t roll anywhere because it wasn’t converted, and at least it’s not correct to compare the Russian ruble
    6. Geronimo73
      Geronimo73 18 December 2015 11: 52 New
      0
      that ruble that you call wooden, i.e. Soviet - didn’t roll anywhere because it wasn’t converted, and at least it’s not correct to compare the Russian ruble
    7. SanSuh
      SanSuh 18 December 2015 12: 11 New
      0
      It is better not to put it off but to invest, it stimulates the economy.
    8. kare
      kare 18 December 2015 15: 05 New
      +6
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      I'm shocked how much I remember our wooden ruble


      Ruble from the word hack. It was a silver wire (I won’t say what diameter (google it)), with notches through a certain length. But it’s not like a wooden handle.
      We learned that the ruble had suddenly become "wooden" not without the help of the country whose flag you have on your avatar.
      And the ruble was lowered to the value of the tree, those go.ndons who put the flag of the mentioned state (will not be marked by night) are above the interests of their nation
      So the ruble alone has nothing to do with it, blame the government for degenerates and oligophrenics
    9. Sharapov
      Sharapov 18 December 2015 17: 58 New
      +1
      Yes, from all that will come true only that Trump will not be chosen - it’s painful for Russia to be loyal ....
    10. siberalt
      siberalt 18 December 2015 18: 33 New
      0
      It seems that the matter is in the amerikosovskoe "mongrel", which broke off the leash. Some of them have already really emerged and are getting underfoot, even trying to bite. Someone started having big problems. what
    11. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 18 December 2015 23: 53 New
      +6
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      as far as I can remember, our wooden ruble always rolls down an inclined path, no stability.

      You live very little in this world, young man!
      I hope the older people remember the time when 1 US dollar was worth 76 kopecks! And money changers in the gateway at a speculative price sold them at 3 rubles apiece.
      Unfortunately, today's portrait of the ruble, after being tied to the dollar with the Fed's printing press, does not look very "sexually attractive":
    12. Felix2
      Felix2 19 December 2015 04: 47 New
      0
      Well this is what you need to be sorry for .... to quote and trust the forecasts of some Danish office which has been 20 years old with 900 employees and a turnover of 400 million euros, I'm not talking about a net income of 50 million in total !!! ( conversion centers we launder more)
      I personally trust bank of America more, whose assets are $ 2.5 trillion, serving 250 thousand, and almost 100 years in business, and which does not bode well for the coming years. for me it is a more authoritative source. trump will not become president and this is not a secret, the article minus VO is not some kind of yellow press.
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 18 December 2015 06: 37 New
    +1
    Forecasts are not grateful .. The world is not stable ... Everything can be
    1. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 18 December 2015 12: 21 New
      +2
      Quote: parusnik
      Forecasts are not grateful.

      But if you make a survey on the site - the dollar exchange rate, the price of oil, etc., and read even after this comment, then the probability will be about 50 percent or more .. (without irony)
  3. Pavel_J
    Pavel_J 18 December 2015 06: 37 New
    +2
    Wet forecast =)
  4. izya top
    izya top 18 December 2015 06: 37 New
    17
    I don’t understand the economy, but this scammer apparently did not go far
    1. Sergey Vladimirovich
      Sergey Vladimirovich 18 December 2015 07: 07 New
      +3
      Yes, it’s so simple, for a positive, though, mood to NG is good to raise! laughing
      1. izya top
        izya top 18 December 2015 07: 12 New
        26
        Quote: Sergey Vladimirovich
        Yes, it’s so simple, for a positive, though, mood to NG is good to raise! laughing
        1. midivan
          midivan 18 December 2015 08: 18 New
          +6
          good the trend answer is I’d blow it, but I won’t say that, since I have one in great respect and sympathy love , and the other is too scary, who and where guess what yourself wink
    2. Shark Lover
      Shark Lover 19 December 2015 03: 58 New
      +2
      I also don’t understand economics. The government is constantly talking about the real sector, to invest, to develop. What is the real sector? Look, there are advertisements on different resources - "Earn money on exchange rate differences-50,100%, invest a ruble, get-3, etc. Further, on job portals, an adjuster is required ....... SALARY 15 rubles! !!! Need a production specialist ......... WAGE 000 30 rubles !! So where is the REAL sector? Why not vice versa? Earn at the enterprise ....... up to 000 200 rubles for the production of bearings for. ..... Earn as a specialist in ..... at the grandiose construction site of the Vostochny cosmodrome, we are waiting for you, your knowledge and hands from you))))))) That is, we have a REAL sector already these are bankers and every tshusher making money out of money.
  5. MAXUZZZ
    MAXUZZZ 18 December 2015 06: 43 New
    12
    We have three such forecasters sitting on each bench near the entrance.
    1. anfil
      anfil 18 December 2015 08: 19 New
      +4
      Yes, everything is clear here - The theory of probability.

      The philistine understanding of probability looks more like a certain prediction, often with a fair amount of mysticism and superstition. Probability theory studies the probabilistic laws of mass homogeneous random events. That is, she has no purpose to guess something, for example, the result of throwing the same coin in a single experiment. However, if the same coin is thrown hundreds and thousands of times under the same conditions, a clear pattern will be traced, described by quite strict laws.

      It is well known: if an eagle - you have to go for a beer. If tails - for vodka. Well, if you get on the edge - get to work.
      1. Minstrel
        Minstrel 18 December 2015 08: 59 New
        +2
        Quote: anfil
        It is well known: if an eagle - you have to go for a beer. If tails - for vodka. Well, if you get on the edge - get to work.

        You won’t believe it, I once had such a thing - a coin stood on the edge. But after that we did not go to work. They threw it two more times - the eagle fell, and then the tails. Therefore, we went to buy beer and vodka ... C'mon - I'm joking. laughing But the coin stood on the edge once, it’s true.
        1. Corsair
          Corsair 18 December 2015 10: 02 New
          +1
          Quote: Minstrel
          You won’t believe it, I once had such a thing - a coin stood on the edge. But after that we did not go to work. They threw it two more times - the eagle fell, and then the tails. Therefore, we went to buy beer and vodka ... C'mon - I'm joking. laughing But the coin stood on the edge once, it's true.

          laughing There was a bit of a different situation - they say that there was beer, fish, vodka, port wine, and if it hangs in the air, then it should work like that. (Well, or the whole pay to my wife - depending on the meaning of the joke)
    2. a housewife
      a housewife 18 December 2015 11: 55 New
      +1
      I'm not sitting on a bench, but I can also predict from the ceiling. Oil in 2017 will be 80-90 dollars per barrel, Clinton will become the presidential candidate, Ukraine will not become in 2016, and the war in Syria will end in 2018. Nobody can refute me, only the events themselves if they go wrong. And for this people get big money. The best forecaster Zhirinovsky. Everything turns out, as he says.
      1. avva2012
        avva2012 18 December 2015 12: 07 New
        0
        Clinton will become president
        Dear housewife, chur, me, chur. You, what, and suddenly come true? Then everything will end in the 18 year.
        1. a housewife
          a housewife 18 December 2015 18: 09 New
          0
          So I didn’t say how it would end. Please - Isil will be defeated. There will be peace. But until then, there will still be large popular armed demonstrations against the bandits, because they will begin to destroy the local population, especially the remaining Christians.
          1. avva2012
            avva2012 18 December 2015 19: 41 New
            0
            I thought you were joking. smile Ah, you are serious. Then for sure, cover with the fact that more boats. recourse
            1. a housewife
              a housewife 18 December 2015 21: 09 New
              +1
              Just kidding. Well, how can I know something? lol
              1. avva2012
                avva2012 18 December 2015 21: 59 New
                0
                Well, how can I know something?
                Woman! love Komsomol member, athlete and just beautiful.
                From you, anything you can expect. hi
                1. a housewife
                  a housewife 18 December 2015 22: 37 New
                  +1
                  I’m surprised myself! repeat love
                  1. avva2012
                    avva2012 18 December 2015 23: 08 New
                    +1
                    Only their screams are heard.
                    White herons are invisible
                    In the morning in the fresh snow.
                    Or so:
                    Seeing everything in the world
                    My eyes are back again
                    To the white chrysanthemum. Good night.
                2. The comment was deleted.
        2. The comment was deleted.
      2. atalef
        atalef 18 December 2015 17: 46 New
        +2
        Quote: housewife
        . The best forecaster Zhirinovsky. Everything turns out, as he says.
  6. inkass_98
    inkass_98 18 December 2015 06: 51 New
    +7
    It is good to be a predictor, the probability of "selling out places" is always considerable - 50%. And always some predicted event comes true, just according to the theory of probability. And then you can proudly push out a realized forecast, masking a bunch of unfulfilled ones behind it.
  7. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 18 December 2015 06: 54 New
    +7
    It is good to give predictions when you are not responsible for their consequences. Here, like Hadji Nasredin - by this time, either the donkey will die, or the sultan will die.
    1. Tersky
      Tersky 18 December 2015 08: 26 New
      +4
      Quote: rotmistr60
      by this time, either the donkey will die, or the sultan will die.

      It depends on which sultan, if Qatar, he dies, and the donkey dies, since the donkey is more reasonable in comparison with this sultan.
      1. -Traveller-
        -Traveller- 18 December 2015 12: 13 New
        +2
        where does such neglect come from? Qatari live, as we did not dream. and the Qatari leadership, including Emir played an important role in this.
  8. Neophyte
    Neophyte 18 December 2015 06: 56 New
    +1
    In the EU, 123 million will be below the poverty line? And social storms, coupled with migrants from
    Third World countries? The collapse of the EU is inevitable, it will start the UK and so on.
  9. Russian jacket
    Russian jacket 18 December 2015 06: 58 New
    +5
    In England, there was or still exists a law, if I am not mistaken, that if a meteorologist predicted clear weather, then he should not have an umbrella with him ... In my opinion, a very necessary law. And for analysts, he should be like this "predicted, invest all your capital in your prediction." And something tells me that the number of analysts when adopting such a law in a minute will be zero. laughing
  10. iliitchitch
    iliitchitch 18 December 2015 07: 01 New
    +2
    I’ll go urgently to buy oil and throw off the bucks.
  11. knn54
    knn54 18 December 2015 07: 08 New
    -2
    In general: we will live poorly, but not for long ...
    The forecast will come true if the peoples of Europe remove Anglo-Saxon moles, such as Merkel, from power
    1. anfil
      anfil 18 December 2015 08: 30 New
      +4
      [quote = knn54] In general: we will live poorly, but not for long ...

      This phrase of Lukashenko: - “The Belarusian people will live poorly, but not for long” © 1996, will still be relevant for a long time.
      1. EvgNik
        EvgNik 18 December 2015 12: 27 New
        +1
        Quote: anfil
        This phrase is Lukashenko

        From Lukashenko the astrologer is still. One day he will say one thing - another another. So it turns out as above said inkass_98 - 50 x 50.
  12. sa-ag
    sa-ag 18 December 2015 07: 08 New
    0
    The most interesting thing is the "single basic income", as a rule, innovations from the west tend to drift east :-)
    1. hydrox
      hydrox 18 December 2015 08: 08 New
      +1
      "One basic income" ... - this is Engels's socialism!
      Yomoe! They are there in Europe on a barrel of revolutions !!! belay
      1. sa-ag
        sa-ag 18 December 2015 08: 13 New
        0
        Quote: hydrox
        "One basic income" ... - this is Engels's socialism!
        Yomoe! They are there in Europe on a barrel of revolutions !!!

        No, everything is fine, just the story repeats itself :-)
  13. Zeppelin ml.
    Zeppelin ml. 18 December 2015 07: 21 New
    10
    There are more than enough fortunetellers on the oil thicket.
    “In the next 10 years, oil prices will not fall below $ 100 per barrel.” Fedun (Lukoil), June 24, 2013.
    "The oil price will not fall below $ 90 a barrel. But $ 90 is also a good price." Sechin, September 29, 2014.
    “If the price of oil falls below the $ 80 level, the world economy will collapse.” Putin, October 17, 2014
    “A drop in oil prices to $ 60 per barrel is unrealistic, it is impossible to count on it seriously.” Ulyukaev, October 2, 2014.
    "The price of oil at $ 50 per barrel is for years," he is, October 21, 2015.

    January Futures - $ 37.19
    1. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 18 December 2015 07: 47 New
      +2
      Quote: Zeppelin ml.
      “If the price of oil falls below the $ 80 level, the world economy will collapse.” Putin, October 17, 2014

      And the world economy, and so in jo .... So he was right here.
      1. goblin xnumx
        goblin xnumx 18 December 2015 09: 22 New
        +1
        "thunderous applause standing in the hall!" :)
      2. Zeppelin ml.
        Zeppelin ml. 18 December 2015 12: 54 New
        +1
        Quote: Oleg147741
        And the global economy, and so in ....

        with such a categorical one can say that she never crawled out of there.
    2. atalef
      atalef 18 December 2015 08: 17 New
      +3
      Quote: Zeppelin ml.
      The oil price of $ 50 per barrel is for years, "he also, October 21, 2015.

      He wanted to say this for a year.
      1. Zeppelin ml.
        Zeppelin ml. 18 December 2015 12: 21 New
        0
        Quote: atalef
        Quote: Zeppelin ml.
        The oil price of $ 50 per barrel is for years, "he also, October 21, 2015.

        He wanted to say this for a year.

        Oil-time continuum of Siluanov.
        That sounds.
    3. anfil
      anfil 18 December 2015 13: 21 New
      0
      Zeppelin ml.
      There are more than enough fortunetellers on the oil thicket.


      At that time, no one suspected of them that Daesh would appear and would dump the stolen oil with the help of the United States and its allies.
  14. sledge
    sledge 18 December 2015 07: 26 New
    +1
    Nabiulina, Siluanov, Ulyukaev, etc. with the ect team ruble strengthen? smile
    1. hydrox
      hydrox 18 December 2015 08: 11 New
      +3
      Yes, they do not care about the ruble!
      But their own financial situation will be strengthened so much that they will not have to apply for a green card or a residence permit in London, they will be given this anyway, as an appendix to the Order of the Garter.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. Riv
    Riv 18 December 2015 07: 40 New
    +1
    I go nuts with these forecasters. :) The forecast is not based on the number of working and not working enterprises in Russia. Not how events will develop in Ukraine and Syria. Not even what the weather will be ... The cost of oil. As always, ss ...
    Only mass executions will save the homeland.
    1. midivan
      midivan 18 December 2015 08: 23 New
      +4
      Quote: Riv
      I go nuts with these forecasters. :) The forecast is not based on the number of working and not working enterprises in Russia. Not how events will develop in Ukraine and Syria. Not even what the weather will be ... The cost of oil. As always, ss ...
      Only mass executions will save the homeland.

      sorry for tactlessness, and which homeland? even flag is not very familiar repeat
      1. Riv
        Riv 18 December 2015 10: 24 New
        +1
        Russian I, from Russia. But recently, the site is somehow strange identifies. Or is it Opera's fault?
        1. ILDM1986
          ILDM1986 18 December 2015 12: 09 New
          +1
          yes it’s high time to remove these flags, half of the country use opera in turbo mode, use programs like ZenMate to access blocked torrent sites, etc. as a result, the country is defined as hell.
          PS okak, today I'm in Hong Kong))))
          1. S_last
            S_last 18 December 2015 17: 18 New
            0
            How is it in Hong Kong, do not share?
  17. heal
    heal 18 December 2015 07: 47 New
    0
    According to the current estimates of the International Labor Organization, 123 million people in the European Union (about a quarter of Europe’s population) are at risk of falling below the poverty line right now.

    For goods that are commonly attributed to luxury, in 2016, the demand will fall by half, according to analysts of Saxo Bank. The luxury sector will be in deep crisis.

    И
    In short, the rich will become poorer, the poor richer.

    Are there any contradictions?

    However, after Q1 2016, the ruble will begin to regain positions. And by the end of next year, the average annual rate will be 70 rubles. for a dollar.

    As you can see, the forecast is optimistic.

    Is this an optimistic outlook? This is a failure.
  18. 1536
    1536 18 December 2015 08: 10 New
    +2
    In fact, it would be good to send these forecasters to the rigs to do a little work for the benefit of humanity. Otherwise, soon they will give a "forecast" that oilmen will pay extra per barrel so that consumers just take it. However, this does not concern us. We are exactly the same "oilmen".
    1. atalef
      atalef 18 December 2015 08: 19 New
      +5
      Quote: 1536
      In fact, it would be good to send these forecasters to the rigs to do a little work for the benefit of humanity. Otherwise, soon they will give a "forecast" that oilmen will pay extra per barrel so that consumers just take it. However, this does not concern us. We are exactly the same "oilmen".

      Do not bother. This is a humorous forecast, before the New Year.
      This is a type of Darwin Award.
  19. Million
    Million 18 December 2015 08: 36 New
    0
    Forecasts today are worth little. The situation in the world is very tense
  20. avva2012
    avva2012 18 December 2015 08: 38 New
    +1
    According to Saxo Bank experts, in the 2016 year, there will be more equality in the EU. The endless crisis growth of inequality amid mass unemployment (it will exceed 10%) will lead Europe to introduce a “single basic income”. The purpose of the innovation is to help the poor. the most numerous audience: relatively young, liberal, educated and unemployed Americans - "the generation of two thousandth."
    Kirdyk Europe, kicked. In Russian, to translate this news, "there will be more idlers living on benefits" (I do not think that the situation in Europe is better than in the USA). Well, go ahead and with a song, to the construction of the European Caliphate.
  21. A-Sim
    A-Sim 18 December 2015 08: 59 New
    0
    This whole vegetable garden was forsaken for this: "... As a result, a new Democrat will sit on the throne in the White House, and a protracted crisis will begin in the Republican Party. In the future, the Republicans will lose the elections to Congress."

    pre-election PR.
  22. Al_oriso
    Al_oriso 18 December 2015 09: 00 New
    +2
    New Year's tales.
  23. gregor6549
    gregor6549 18 December 2015 09: 12 New
    +4
    How is it there? "Nourishing the hopes of young men"
    But you and I have not been giving young men for a long time, and therefore this forecast resembles the fortune-telling of a muslin lady on coffee grounds.
    First, OPEC countries only recently agreed not to reduce oil production
    Secondly, for the first time in many years, the US government gave permission to export oil from the United States
    Thirdly, Iran has not yet seriously begun to export its oil, of which it has more than enough
    Fourth, ISIS is only stepping up oil trade (or smuggling) with some countries at dumping prices
    Mention may also be made of a slight drop in oil demand in countries such as China.
    Those. there are no grounds for particular optimism regarding the rise in oil prices.
    And the last one. And maybe the most important thing. It may be enough to sit on an oil needle and wait for the weather by the sea. And then you can get through to the very opposite result.
  24. Nix1986
    Nix1986 18 December 2015 09: 14 New
    +1
    For some reason, all forecasts are based only on supply factors, who will enter the market or who will exit the market, increase or decrease quotas. And the demand is why no one takes into account? Hybrids have already firmly entered the car market, if before everyone had only a lot of prizes, now every brand is trying to release a model with a hybrid power plant in the model range. I'm already silent about electric cars, if before it was an exotic type of fisherman karma, on which only a couple of Hollywood stars traveled, then everyone already knows about Tesla and she is in the United States, and Mitsubishi and Nissan have affordable electric cars in their gamut. And now a new plant for the production of electric vehicles is already being built in the United States, so far to whom it belongs to everyone, but judging by the composition of the top management, it is likely that the Yabloko are building it, they have repeatedly spoken about the possibility of producing electric vehicles. And if in the near future they can reduce the cost of batteries and increase their capacity (and I think they can), then electric cars will enter the market en masse. So, I would not remove the demand factor from the analysis, but it would fall steadily in the car market, while the car market itself is one of the most important factors in oil demand.
    1. avva2012
      avva2012 18 December 2015 09: 24 New
      +1
      So I would not remove the demand factor from the analysis, but it will steadily fall in the car market, while the car market itself is one of the most important factors in oil demand.
      In economics, it’s not strong, but, as far as I remember the course of school chemistry, oil is not only gasoline. Plastic, polymeric materials, industrial alcohol, but you never know what else. All chemical production is based on petroleum products. Expected decline in this area? If, yes, then the price will fall. If not, then, although all cars will switch to electricity and hydrogen, the price will not change. In addition, I read somewhere that the price of oil is affected more by speculation when they resell, not even the oil itself, but the paper on it.
      1. Nix1986
        Nix1986 18 December 2015 09: 27 New
        +1
        So I said that this is only one of the factors of demand, but one of the main ones. No one doubts that hydrocarbons will be needed for a long time, but the car market will gradually reduce demand.
  25. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 18 December 2015 09: 18 New
    +4
    Well, yes, this Jacobsen mixed up all sorts of nonsense in his article and passed it off as a forecast.
    And the reality is this:
    1) oil for the next 10 years will fluctuate around $ 20 per barrel due to the fact that a lot of oil is produced, and the dollar will rise in price due to a gradual increase in the discount rate to 3,5% and higher, as well as the adoption by the US State Department of the program " expensive dollar "- that is, and" transfer "-" more resources for less dollars "to reduce the total dollar supply.
    2) to guess about the fate of the ruble - "the most expensive" because the "ruble" is a "mythical" value, needed only for calculating the social budget and payments to workers - all the others operate with "currency" values. Since the ruble is not needed by anyone except hard workers and pensioners, its value can be made absolutely any, the main thing is that its "value" inside the country would allow the hegemon not to die of hunger on the one hand and would allow the state to spend as little currency as possible on conversion for the "production" of this ruble (although, in principle, it can be printed from the "drum").
    3) no one will ever lift the "sanctions" from Russia, not for that they were introduced, in order to cancel.
    4) there will be no "return" of investments in the Russian economy. Why? See point # 3.
  26. avva2012
    avva2012 18 December 2015 09: 46 New
    0
    The head of Saxo Bank’s strategy in the foreign exchange market, John Hardy, believes that international investors will again invest in the Russian economy.

    I wonder where else you can invest. To Africa? It is tempting, but, how is it with logistics, ecology, fly tsetse, finally? How able-bodied is the population accustomed to lying under a palm tree and eating bananas? What is left? Y. America, has long been invested. The US sits there tightly, you can’t smoke it with dust. The Middle East is on fire and is unlikely to go out soon. Not for that they set him on fire. China itself does not know where to invest. Russia?
    1. Linkin
      Linkin 18 December 2015 10: 04 New
      -1
      Invest in Russia to confiscate GDP and Co.? They were swimming and no longer want to ....
      1. Monster_Fat
        Monster_Fat 18 December 2015 15: 02 New
        +1
        For example, China, just successfully invests in Africa, buys on the "root" of the concession on vast territories for absolutely everything, for any raw materials, etc., including the laying of roads and the development of territories.
        1. avva2012
          avva2012 18 December 2015 15: 51 New
          0
          China will probably have to resettle its citizens there. Otherwise, nothing can be built on those "huge territories". For the most part, the locals are not adapted to long-term methodical work (without any racism). Specialists, too, will have to take out their own. Indeed, only the Chinese can do such a colossal task.
  27. kirgudu
    kirgudu 18 December 2015 10: 01 New
    0
    Will the poor get rich? No, this will never happen. There will not be enough resources for everyone in the capitalist world. Must be gentlemen, then there must be Slaves.

    And Jacobson needs to change the supplier of grass, or a profession.
  28. Vladimir
    Vladimir 18 December 2015 10: 22 New
    +2
    Who can predict something now? Weather for three days, and then no one can really guess, but here is the forecast of the economy in our turbulent time.
    1. anfil
      anfil 18 December 2015 13: 26 New
      -3
      Quote: Vladimir
      Who can predict something now? Weather for three days, and then no one can really guess, but here is the forecast of the economy in our turbulent time.

      VANGUU
      These are the difficulties. Against the background of a gelding, Citroen and Rover - in general it sounds convincing ...
      So win!




      And remember that
  29. sleeping sayan
    sleeping sayan 18 December 2015 10: 23 New
    0
    gregor6549. Yes, it’s time to get off the oil needle. Only about whom, about: Minsk or Russia.
  30. Robert Nevsky
    Robert Nevsky 18 December 2015 10: 24 New
    0
    Guys, let's break through again !!! soldier
    1. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 19 December 2015 05: 34 New
      0
      Quote: Robert Nevsky
      Guys, let's break through again !!!

      Where are you tearing ?? forehead at the open door, once again ??
  31. DobryAAH
    DobryAAH 18 December 2015 10: 25 New
    0
    As for oil, it is very doubtful. For good reason, the United States began to soar brains with the rise in rates. Yes, they need to blow bubbles, but oil is unlikely to grow during this period. Assets are being drowned in a special way. Rates will not be much visible, otherwise deflation. But a year we are cut through, maybe more?
  32. tomcat117
    tomcat117 18 December 2015 10: 54 New
    0
    Dances with a tambourine and ritual began - oil will rise in price, the ruble will strengthen, the poor will get rich ....
    The voices of economists like Steen Jacobsen of Saxo Bank are like the quack of a petrel. The more "forecasts" - different, groundless and contradictory, the easier it is to fish your fish.
    And any policy for the uninitiated is a storm and chaos, where everything works for the shaman to achieve specific goals without disdaining the means of achievement.
    And the stated can happen exactly the opposite.
  33. veksha50
    veksha50 18 December 2015 11: 09 New
    0
    "As you can see, the forecast is optimistic"...

    Well, in comparison with articles predicted by other analysts, this forecast is not so much optimistic as it is more realistic ... Some, both ours and Western ones, give much more optimistic estimates and forecasts ...

    But everyone takes as the basis the fact that the Saudis and others like them will not be able to keep oil prices low for a long time ... It is this fact that is the basis of all forecasts, without exception ...

    Well, what will happen in reality - we'll see ...

    PS Yesterday I was surprised by a comparison of the cost of producing Brent crude oil: the Saudis - 2,5 bucks per barrel, we have 2,8 ... We don’t believe anything in this information ... there would be such a small difference, it would be would have less problems ... with us, I mean ...
    1. avva2012
      avva2012 18 December 2015 11: 37 New
      +1
      Yesterday I was surprised by a comparison of the cost of Brent crude oil production: the Saudis have 2,5 dollars per barrel, we have 2,8 ... A strange message, we, it seems, this brand was never mined. There are three varieties, and that’s it. Yes, and the Saudis, something similar, but not it.
      1. veksha50
        veksha50 18 December 2015 20: 11 New
        0
        Quote: avva2012
        Yesterday I was surprised by a comparison of the cost of Brent crude oil production: the Saudis have 2,5 dollars per barrel, we have 2,8 ...


        Most likely, I blurted out about Brent ... The article was about the cost of our and Saudi oil, and since they always write about the cost of Brent, so I added on the machine ...

        However, this is not the point ... I was surprised by a small gap in cost ... For some reason, it seemed that the difference between THEM and OUR cost price was much greater, at times ...
        1. avva2012
          avva2012 18 December 2015 20: 24 New
          +1
          Strange, where did you get the information? The request to the Internet gave some discrepancy in price, but not critical. Let's say:Last year (apparently 2013), oil minister Ali Al-Naimi told reporters that on average, the cost of producing one barrel of oil in Saudi Arabia is 2 dollars.
          For comparison: in the Russian oil company Rosneft, the cost of producing one barrel of oil is on average 14,57 dollars. And taking into account the costs of exploration, drilling and modernization of oil refineries, we get 21 dollars per barrel. And, here, in another place: For example, in Saudi Arabia, the cost of fuel production does not exceed 10 dollars per barrel. In Russia, this indicator varies from 30 to 40 dollars. In America, this value in some regions reaches the mark of 60-70 dollars. There is a separate situation with Canada. When producing oil in the sands, you have to spend about 120-150 dollars per barrel.
          1. veksha50
            veksha50 19 December 2015 14: 12 New
            0
            Quote: avva2012
            Strange, where did you get the information?



            Though belatedly - I’ll answer ... I’m subscribing to the tape.ru, the truth is.ru and myrtesen.ru ... Well, I can’t put checkmarks and links everywhere ... But what I didn’t come up with is certainly ... And again I say - I was struck by this comparison ... But those prices that you brought - this is already plausible ...
  34. Mark68
    Mark68 18 December 2015 11: 41 New
    0
    All my life I live by the principle: "the dollar is getting cheaper, the ruble is getting more expensive - I don't believe, the dollar is getting more expensive, the ruble is getting cheaper - I believe." Russians are always fed with such "optimistic" economic predictions when things get particularly bad. I remember that in his last annual speech, our president also promised that the economy would grow, and oil prices would rise ... Something did not come true. Although you always want to believe in a miracle, but if it does happen, then America, as a state, is no longer in this world ...
  35. mikh-korsakov
    mikh-korsakov 18 December 2015 11: 53 New
    0
    Suddenly there was a commotion, a Western analyst predicted the price of oil at $ 100 per barrel. The ladies on television began to judge - to argue, with what it would lead to what consequences. What is SAXOBANK? This is a Danish bank from the middle peasants. Rating on a ten-point scale 5. Analysts there are like Pedro in Brazil, each other is cooler, so - it seems to me like a storm in a glass of water.
  36. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 18 December 2015 11: 55 New
    +1
    Only the forecast about Trump will come true, which, unfortunately, will not become the president of the United States. Clinton will become - solely by gender.
  37. nemec55
    nemec55 18 December 2015 13: 33 New
    +1
    Already heard such a nonsense, WHO WAS ANYONE THAT WILL BECOME EVERYONE. And so it happened who was in prison now in the offices.
  38. Seneca
    Seneca 18 December 2015 13: 34 New
    0
    Here is another forecast and fears of a person at the forefront of technological progress.
    Elon Musk fears that World War III may disrupt the exploration of Mars

    In a new interview for GQ, Ilona Mask was asked about his plans for the colonization of Mars, in the implementation of which Space X rockets should play an important role. However, this time he was not optimistic. He did not mention the omnipotence of technological progress, as is usually the case.

    Musk replied: “Most of us instinctively assume that technology continues to develop unceasingly, but there have been periods in the history of mankind, for example, after the Egyptians built the pyramids or after a series of brilliant victories of the Roman Empire, when new civilizations could not surpass the achievements of their predecessors, and it would probably be too smug and reckless to believe that this will not happen again. "

    Not for nothing that the current IT industry is sometimes associated with self-confidence and arrogance. Although, according to Musk, the world war will throw humanity back in many ways.

    He warned that we do not have much time for the exploration of Mars, because events on Earth can be interpreted not just in favor of a slowdown in the rate of technological progress. It seems to be a regression.

    Musk explained: “I don’t think it’s worth ignoring the possibility of unleashing the Third World War. You know, in 1912 they talked about the beginning of a new era of peace and prosperity, the era of the Golden Age, since the war ended. And then the First and Second World War began, followed by the Cold War. So, I think it’s worth recognizing that no one is safe from the Third World War and that if it is untied, everything will be much worse than ever in history. Just think the same nuclear weapon. I mean, a very powerful social movement against technology could begin. ”
  39. Wolverine
    Wolverine 18 December 2015 13: 40 New
    0
    “Shocking” forecast: oil will rise in price, the ruble will strengthen, the poor will get rich,

    Today, realities are such that it is impossible to make any forecasts, we do not know what will happen tomorrow, but here are the forecasts ... recourse
  40. Vladimir65
    Vladimir65 18 December 2015 13: 57 New
    0
    How painful and embarrassing to read about your country as a backward commodity economy. Once we were proud of our industry, flew on our airplanes, sailed on rivers in hydrofoil ships, built spaceships and space stations, and all this was in a self-sufficient Russian civilization. Now it remains only to remember this and regret the lost years.
  41. xBoris
    xBoris 18 December 2015 14: 16 New
    0
    ..well yes..,
    We live - see .. =)
  42. yuriy55
    yuriy55 18 December 2015 16: 39 New
    0
    When the future is unclear and frightens with its obscurity, and in the present there are all prerequisites for not the happiest events, many turn to people with magical abilities for help. Someone turns to the magician, and someone prefer visiting a fortuneteller or fortune teller.

    It is important to understand that often behind the facade of the pentagram can be hidden the most ordinary charlatan, and in the smelling Hypericum hut in a simple rural outfit you can find a strong hereditary fortuneteller. For a true psychic, the main thing is not money, but help to the afflicted.


    http://zagovory-privoroty.ru/magiya/gadalki-vorozhei

    For me, it is important that people continue to be distracted from pressing affairs in different ways: some offer fantastic forecasts, others offer incredible projects, others take care of their happy and long life, enforcing dead laws and inciting bloody military conflicts ...
    hi
  43. tracer
    tracer 18 December 2015 16: 56 New
    +2
    Once a seditious little thought visited. I will share a little .. And they do not pay extra wages and there are no enterprises except the bulk of "offices" who do not know what they do, and covered markets with endless women's boots and down jackets. We are arguing here, marking time around the bush, but we do not actually notice one fundamental issue. In all the fundamental works of the "dogmas" of the market economy, the most important principle is laid, this is "making a profit." In any areas of production, and anything in general. And everything that interferes with making a profit, any "unnecessary expenses" are harmful to the business and should be reduced by all means. Wages, social security costs, public transport, and a lot of what we actually live with. Are "unnecessary and wasteful expenses". Accordingly, the attitude towards us is such as ..... well, you know. So nothing can be done about this under the capitalist model of state development. I advise many to read Marx's Capital at least selectively. Nothing, absolutely nothing, nothing has changed since the writing of this work, except that the dates on the calendar. All socio-economic (not talking about foreign policy) problems that we criticize at the forum trying to somehow find acceptable answers to our questions will change absolutely nothing. Until the very political and economic structure in Russia has been changed, in other words, the "system". No matter how "one would like" to admit this, in my opinion, it is impossible to do without it. And no "changes and amendments to the constitution" will change the situation. The goal of the future state structure in Russia should be not the principle of making a profit, but the principle of preserving and increasing the population of the state, preserving the borders and increasing the well-being of the people. Is this even possible? Yes, perhaps, and fortunately we have experience. Of course, you should not completely copy it, it will probably be similar, but a different socio-economic model that includes different forms of ownership. For example, as in China .... And do not say that "The economy of the Union was doomed ..." The economy of the Soviet Union was doomed to such economic reforms that would bring it to the first place in the world economy. It was to prevent this from happening that Gorbachev's gang was brought to power. And that was done. A person will never have no conscience, no honor, no homeland, no friends, no family, while in his head there is only MONEY !!!
    1. anfil
      anfil 18 December 2015 19: 19 New
      0
      And everything that interferes with making a profit, any "unnecessary expenses" are harmful to the business and should be reduced by all means. Wages, social security costs, public transport, and a lot of what we actually live with.


      I totally agree.
      Just about to get rich, and then - then the socks are torn ... then the sugar is over. belay
  44. Serhio
    Serhio 18 December 2015 20: 41 New
    0
    Quote: jarome
    more than 300 rubles you can not take with you to the ABC of Taste - stupidly you will not drag packages to the car

    Something you too dream of, for 15 euros no more than one package from the market will carry. negative
  45. a housewife
    a housewife 18 December 2015 21: 15 New
    0
    And why is a poor population that can’t buy anything?
    1. tracer
      tracer 18 December 2015 23: 59 New
      0
      The main thing is that they can buy. And the population is the population. Slaves won for a couple of bowls of rice and why. No one was richer than making them.
  46. ilyich
    ilyich 18 December 2015 22: 03 New
    0
    Quote: The same Lech
    “Shocking” forecast: oil will rise in price, the ruble will strengthen, the poor will get rich,

    What are you ... I'm shocked, as far as I remember, our wooden ruble always rolls down an inclined path, no stability.
    I have a strong belief now that in rubles, saving and accumulating for the ordinary population of RUSSIA is harmful to our own health (we need a more reliable ruble substitute).
    If the Americans start massively throwing their oil into the market, the ruble will fall even lower ... the prospects for our economy are unimportant .... we are still stomping the Kudrinsky road to a happy future.

    the states you are writing from are all recent and not recent net importers of oil. moreover, they import about THREE of their consumption. what will they throw out there? which market? they will throw it away with one hand, and rake from the same market with the other? :)
  47. sprut
    sprut 18 December 2015 22: 47 New
    +1
    It would be interesting to observe what would happen if Trump were chosen ... :-)
  48. tracer
    tracer 18 December 2015 23: 57 New
    +1
    I talk with locals all the time. Almost everything is for Trump. Nobody wants an old tantrum for president.
  49. Freeman
    Freeman 19 December 2015 01: 41 New
    0
    Thanks to the author for the article, amused. What are we trying to discuss? A banter from an employee of a middle-class bank?

    Voicing his “shocking predictions”, Mr. Chief Economist emphasized that his predictions are not an official forecast on behalf of Saxo Bank. He also informed the public that his assumptions are “more plausible” than those judgments that allow widespread public opinion. With regard to the likelihood of their implementation, then, according to Jacobsen, one or even two promises can come true.


    He propiarized his office, giving a forecast in the style of a joke:

    Once the blonde was asked what is the probability of meeting a dinosaur on the street? 50 to 50, she answered, either you will meet or not.
  50. Felix2
    Felix2 19 December 2015 05: 00 New
    0
    Quote: afdjhbn67
    Quote: parusnik
    Forecasts are not grateful.

    But if you make a survey on the site - the dollar exchange rate, the price of oil, etc., and read even after this comment, then the probability will be about 50 percent or more .. (without irony)

    Forgive what?
    1. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 19 December 2015 05: 03 New
      +1
      Quote: Felix2

      But if you make a survey on the site - the dollar exchange rate, the price of oil, etc., and read even after this comment, then the probability will be about 50 percent or more .. (without irony)

      Quote: Felix2

      But if you make a survey on the site - the dollar exchange rate, the price of oil, etc., and read even after this comment, then the probability will be about 50 percent or more .. (without irony)

      in favor of greater realism ..
      1. Felix2
        Felix2 19 December 2015 05: 12 New
        +1
        most of all I was pleased or rather amused by the "realism" from the title of the article "the poor will get rich" is this a hint?