Military Review

Great migration of peoples


In late summer - early autumn 2015, Europe shuddered under the onslaught of hundreds of thousands of migrants from the Middle East, who broke through all possible borders, striving for a European social paradise. This was a real shock for both European government institutions and local societies. The states did not know and still do not know what to do in a situation for which there are no written instructions. Rather, they, of course, are there, but not for such a scale. In the meantime, local societies have experienced and are experiencing the test of their tolerance.

The latter circumstance is of great importance, because such an influx of migrants causes an increase in protest and anti-immigrant sentiments in the societies of Western countries. In turn, they are theoretically capable of causing an increase in ultra-right sentiment. For example, the last elections in Poland clearly demonstrated a lurch to the right. In particular, for the first time in the parliament of this country there will not be a single left-wing party.

Today in European societies there is a serious public split over the refugee issue. Because along with those who believe that it is necessary to help them out of humanitarian considerations, there are also many who oppose it. The latter think that refugees, firstly, create too much pressure on social funds and on government spending. Secondly, that Muslim refugees by their appearance threaten the identity of the population of European countries, which is primarily regarded as Christian and democratic.

But these two groups, in fact the extreme points of view, represent a very active minority in European countries. The first go to rallies in defense of migrants and for providing them with maximum support. The second rally against the reception of migrants and for tightening policies against them. But still there are not so many of them.

Much more important is a moderate conservative majority in European countries. These people agree in principle with a humanitarian approach and not against tolerance. But at the same time, they think pragmatically. Of course, they feel sorry for refugees from dysfunctional countries, but then the question arises whether Europe can in principle help and accept all the unfortunate people in Asia and Africa, or at least a substantial part of them. This follows from humanitarian and liberal logic, which should be helped by those who have problems. In addition, does not follow the humanitarian policy to the fact that people in Asia and Africa perceive the softness of European countries for their weakness. Then all the hundreds of thousands of people that Europe accepts, objectively provoke other hundreds of thousands, and maybe more to try to reach the European coast.

While the conservative part of the public opinion of most European countries has not yet come into motion, it cannot decide on its attitude to the processes taking place. Still, in movements both in defense of migrants, and against them, a rather limited number of citizens come forward. But the question does not just remain on the agenda, it burns with a huge question mark on the map of Europe.

Its first consequences are already being felt in Germany, where the rating of Chancellor Angela Merkel, which declared its readiness to accept migrants, fell. In some European countries, politicians who are always sensitive to the situation have already begun to make statements about possible negative consequences for the European Union. In this spirit, spoke Austrian Chancellor Werner Fayman. In Eastern Europe, increasingly harsh statements are being made. Here, many do not agree with the idea of ​​the European Union to place migrants in all countries according to a quota that will be determined based on the size of GDP.

Many politicians and observers, both in Europe and, in particular, in Russia, emphasize that Europe itself contributed to the emergence of this crisis when, through its participation in hostilities, it helped liquidate the regimes of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Saddam Hussein in Iraq and weaken the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria. Actually, most of today's migrants to Europe are just refugees from Syria, Iraq, and African countries, who easily penetrate from the south through the chaotic territory of Libya.

Of course, this logic is quite obvious. The same Gaddafi did not miss the refugees, including in the framework of their tacit agreements with European politicians. In Syria, a long civil war led to the fact that a significant part of the country's population became refugees. Many of them have been living in refugee camps in Turkey for the fourth year. And, of course, that nothing prevents them from getting to the Turkish coast of the Aegean Sea, and then going to the Greek islands.

Although the Europeans may say in response that this Assad in Syria creates conditions for the emergence of refugees, that in Libya they supported the local rebels, who opposed a very strict regime. Accordingly, all that happened later is a consequence of the inability of local forces to agree with each other. Further, Europeans usually do not go, because here you can approach the dangerous line, beyond which discussions begin that the Western model of democracy does not work in the Eastern world.

Naturally, for the majority of people from the West, especially politicians, this is an almost blasphemous statement ideologically. Democracy is never questioned under any circumstances. Therefore, it is more logical for Western European observers to divide the modern history the same Middle East on separate blocks. For example, the regimes of Gaddafi, Assad and Saddam Hussein and their policies, separately - intercommunal and intertribal contradictions that begin after their fall, and so on are considered separately.

In this logic, refugees are first of all a block from the field of humanitarian problems. Therefore, it is precisely this aspect that is dominant when considering this problem. It cannot be said that in Europe nothing is done to stop the flow of refugees.

But in the developed countries of old Europe they try to stay within the framework of the procedures. Therefore, Germany, for example, facilitates the procedure for the expulsion of illegal migrants. The same can not be said about the countries of Eastern Europe. They are trying to build fences, to mobilize the army to protect the borders. A part of the tactics of some countries is also the early passage of migrants entering Europe into other countries so that they do not remain in the territory. That is, trying to shift responsibility for them to the neighbors.

Although Eastern European countries are not pioneers in the use of this tactic. For example, it has long been actively used by Italy, whose authorities redirect migrants from Africa to the rest of Europe.

In fact, the current crisis with migrants is not a private one for Europe, but a systemic one. That is, it is not a question of who will pay for the maintenance of migrants, where they will live, and not even a question of what security problems in European cities can arise because of them. Although the latter circumstance is of great importance. Because it is not clear how many among the hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria and Iraq are former military, militants of various organizations, from tribal militias to immigrants from, relatively speaking, the “Islamic State”. All this people are very decisive and ready for a lot in case of problems. Even if we do not assume that among them there are those who could have been specifically sent to Europe by various "bad" people or organizations.

The main question is different. Within the framework of globalization, Europe in terms of employment, health, public safety and social issues is, without any doubt, the most attractive place to live. At the same time, globalization drives the mass of people in Asian and African countries. They move from village to city, they get a lot of information. And this is irrelevant to conflicts that occur very often. Naturally, the image of Europe always looks attractive to many, including those who received an education.

Of course, the United States looks attractive, and Japan. But only Mexicans and other Hispanics can get to the US relatively simply. While Japan is an extremely closed country for migrants. In addition, in the United States and Japan, social policy is less ambitious than in Europe, with its victorious social approaches to public policy.

In this sense, Europe is very close to Africa. It has a generally liberal policy, which makes it easier for migrants if not to obtain political asylum, then at least a safe entry into its territory and, importantly, being here. That is, despite the illegality of the stay of migrants, the state actually closes its eyes to the fact that they are on its territory. At the same time, her social policy is very ambitious and also very liberal in relation to visitors.

This creates conditions for potential migrants who understand that all their efforts to penetrate Europe will be justified. Of course, there is always a risk, after all, someone is drowning in the sea, but this is a very small percentage.

That is, Europeans cannot prevent migrants from arriving in Europe, for that they are too liberal. And they cannot but contain migrants who have already appeared in Europe, for this they are too social.

In general, the current crisis is a systemic problem for Europe. The sharp increase in the number of migrants from the Muslim East is superimposed on the large number of Muslims who already live in European countries. The level of integration of these people is noticeably lower than the level of integration of immigrants, for example, from the territory of the former USSR. Muslim societies have a communal pattern of residence. This is in conflict with the individualistic nature of the organization of Western European society.

Eastern communities are primarily focused on their interests. Today in Europe, they are mostly religious in nature and exist at the local level. Therefore, they rarely, almost never have political significance. The democratic system in Western Europe, whether it is a majority election system, as in the UK, or proportional, as in France and Germany, has immunity against the potentially existing community interests of people from the East.

First, partly political parties integrate immigrants from various communities into their membership. They can hold positions up to ministerial portfolios, such as Arab Rashid Dati in the government of Nicolas Sarkozy in France. But these people are part of the establishment, inside they are the same Europeans. Secondly, no local community of immigrants from Eastern countries today has the opportunity to enter the political space. That is, it is impossible to form, for example, a Muslim or Turkish party. Even if they make up an impressive percentage of the electorate. In particular, Muslims in France are made up of many ethnic communities.

In addition, in the case of a majority electoral system, the old elites always have an advantage over newcomers to electoral politics. For example, in the UK, a party can score a large percentage nationwide, but get a minimum of seats in parliament, because in majority districts, the one who gets the most votes wins. Therefore, in European countries there are not so many Muslim deputies, despite the fact that there are many of them in the composition of the country's population.

But despite the effectiveness of such a system, it has its limits. As the number of people from Muslim countries grows in the population structure, it is only a matter of time, they will begin to formulate their questions about the policies of the country of residence. Accordingly, when the quantity starts to pass into political quality.

That is the danger of the current migration crisis for Europe. This million of migrants, or perhaps more, is able to play the role of the straw that broke the camel’s back. As the masses of refugees from the Middle East integrate into the European space, they will increasingly influence relations between the local population and Muslim communities. European politicians will find it increasingly difficult to contain the contradictions that arise.

They will have to solve the fundamental question: should we protect the identity with all forces and build walls on the borders with the outside world or agree that this is no longer possible?

Modern Europe is increasingly reminiscent of the late Roman Empire, which was attractive to the masses of people from around the then ancient world. People sought to achieve its civilization. First, as migrants, moving families and one by one. Then, as a community, moving whole tribes. Then there were conquests, but that's another story.
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  1. venaya
    venaya 13 December 2015 05: 08
    Something tells me that the migration of peoples, like the Great Migration of Nations, is a more artificial process, created artificially and does not have independent natural causes at all.
    1. Teberii
      Teberii 13 December 2015 05: 29
      When bombs fall on the head, no matter whose, when the Ishilovites cut out entire villages, then there is no time to philosophize.
    2. EvgNik
      EvgNik 13 December 2015 05: 56
      Quote: venaya
      Something tells me that the migration of peoples, like the Great Migration of Nations, is a more artificial process

      The resettlement of peoples is, of course, provoked. First, the destruction of the USSR, then the destruction of the Balkan states and the invasion of the states in the Middle East. In addition, the artificially introduced "tolerance" and ill-conceived migration policy in Europe will eventually destroy this old woman.
      He was now in Perm and very unpleasantly struck by change. In 10 minutes I met two Negroes, and there were almost more people of Central Asian appearance than Russians. So we need to think about this. And it would be nice to again enter the fifth column in the passport - nationality.
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Tatyana
        Tatyana 13 December 2015 07: 42
        In terms of filling European states with migrants, the statement of the ex-US Treasury Secretary Paul Henry O'Neill in his "Open Letter to All Ukrainians", shedding light on the EU as such, is remarkable, namely, as the US political occupation project in relation to European countries ...
        The European Union is a representation of Western oligarchs in the person of German financiers, created so that the United States can control the economy of all of Europe.
        The European Union, in fact, is just an institutional union of stateless people, without government, without government policy, without government, without a real parliament, without the Constitution - 00123543.htm
        And we see how, with the help of Muslim refugees, this US project is being implemented. And Merkel plays a dominant role. It serves not Germany as such, nor the EU countries as such; and in fact is the informal "president" of this "EU" as this very "institutional union of stateless persons" of these Muslim refugees. It is they - according to the planned project of global oligarchs from the USA - who will be the future inhabitants of Western Europe.
    3. The black
      The black 13 December 2015 18: 35
      I agree. Even the photo illustrating this article, in which mostly "nephews" are fleeing to Europe laughing another confirmation of this .... women and children apparently are fighting with igil ....
  2. Aleksander
    Aleksander 13 December 2015 05: 25
    They will have to solve the fundamental question: should we protect the identity with all forces and build walls on the borders with the outside world or agree that this is no longer possible?

    Europe has already surrendered. Its main task, in my opinion, in the next 20-30 years, is to do a good deed for humanity and to destroy weapons of mass destruction, nuclear and chemical, so that it does not go to the bearded Euro-barmales who came to power in the Caliphate Europe. Aliens will be throwing out the native Europeans from their houses and dragging them into the harem, and they will all yell about the Russian threat and the need to defend themselves from it ....
    1. Alexei
      Alexei 13 December 2015 05: 58
      Quote: Aleksander
      Indigenous Europeans will be thrown out of their homes by aliens

      That will create favorable conditions for the birth of a new Hitler, and the revival of nationalism. This diverse crowd of refugees from the Middle East and Africa is a clip that will charge Europe. And Europe will shoot at itself or at us.
      1. Phantom Revolution
        Phantom Revolution 13 December 2015 08: 47
        Quote: Alexej
        That will create favorable conditions for the birth of a new Hitler, and the revival of nationalism. This diverse crowd of refugees from the Middle East and Africa is a clip that will charge Europe. And Europe will shoot at itself or at us.

        What will they do? If the chancellor will be "Mullah Sultan Ibn Islam"? If Turks and Arabs serve in the Army? Here, with their tolerance, it can be the other way around, they will clean up the remnants or deport them to hell, the Germans are even afraid to mention the war on their territory. Yes, look for news "102 refugees have arrived in a German village with a population of 500" understand what awaits.
        1. KaPToC
          KaPToC 13 December 2015 09: 59
          As history has shown, Europeans can easily solve such problems by destroying the cause.
        2. Alexei
          Alexei 13 December 2015 10: 18
          The trouble of all time is the unprincipled young men from 15 to 25 years.
          1. Weyland
            Weyland 13 December 2015 11: 17
            the girls at the top, most likely, the Alawites - and the guys below, most likely, are Sunnis wink
          2. Weyland
            Weyland 13 December 2015 11: 17
            the girls at the top, most likely, the Alawites - and the guys below, most likely, are Sunnis wink
            1. 8 inches
              8 inches 13 December 2015 11: 49
              and from the fact that they are Sunnis they have to run .. that I don’t understand the Arab mentality ..
  3. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 13 December 2015 05: 31
    The world has entered difficult times! From now on, resettlement will take place regularly. Europe, if it does not take protective measures, risks becoming a African colony. Not far off is the time when Europe itself (people) will seek a place for resettlement.
  4. From Samara
    From Samara 13 December 2015 05: 51
    Objectively speaking, this situation prevailing in Europe in Russia’s hand !!! We don’t have friends there among the political elite, and there will never be ... Therefore, if something happens, you can organize a Civil War so that we ourselves do not die ...
  5. Federal
    Federal 13 December 2015 06: 20
    Its first consequences are already felt in Germany, where the rating of Chancellor Angela Merkel fell, which stated its readiness to accept migrants. In some European countries, politicians who are always keen on the situation have already begun to make statements about possible negative consequences for the European Union.

    All the evils of resettlement from Europe itself, which was directly involved in the ruin of such countries as Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Sudan, Yugoslavia. So what do they want now? Staying away as observers will fail.
    1. Aleksander
      Aleksander 13 December 2015 09: 33
      Quote: Federal
      All the evils of resettlement from Europe itself, which was directly involved in the ruin of such countries as Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Sudan, Yugoslavia

      Yes. Europeans were in a comfortable and safe position "behind the glass", watching from a safe distance the horrors perpetrated by their countries in Asia and Africa. But the" glass "suddenly collapsed and horror burst into their house, and they are absolutely not ready for this and do not even understand WHAT is happening. And they are being replaced by others ....
    2. yuriy55
      yuriy55 13 December 2015 10: 29
      What they can do, God alone knows. And the mood is:
  6. apro
    apro 13 December 2015 06: 50
    Firstly, this is not a great resettlement, but a planned action to weaken the European Union, secondly, Europe cannot resist the pressure of amers and makes a good face for a bad game. Russia's interests in this situation should be on the side of Europeans, marginalization of Europe does not bring us anything good, help Europe in confrontation with amers, to support the movement of resistance in any form, whether the result is right or left or green is important.
  7. Neophyte
    Neophyte 13 December 2015 06: 51
    The EU has a choice! Start a real fight against ISIS-Daesh, kick Turkey out of NATO, as an obvious ally of the bandit formations, cut off all financial channels, and so on. In addition, start rebuilding the economies of the affected states, especially Syria. But this is for soft the old woman of Europe is impossible! And therefore, her future is natural in accordance with Sharia and other new "European values."
    1. apro
      apro 13 December 2015 10: 09
      Tatyana You are so aggressive, but essentially the EU needs to throw off the dictates of the Amers in order to defend itself, but for now it has no choice but to fulfill the whims of the White House.
  8. mag nit
    mag nit 13 December 2015 06: 56
    The colonizers are being evicted from Europe.
  9. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 13 December 2015 08: 51
    But that's another story.

    Which led to the collapse of the Roman Empire. And it all began the same way - the Roman Empire, swimming in fat and mired in perversions, considered that there was no longer that force. which can resist her. But this power was not only found, it came to this empire and destroyed it to the ground. But history does not teach those who snicker and look at others from high.
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 13 December 2015 10: 13
      Quote: rotmistr60

      ... And it all began as well - floating in fat and mired in perversions, the Roman Empire considered that there was no longer the force that could resist it. But this power was not only found, it came to this empire and destroyed it to the ground. But history does not teach those who snicker and look at others from high.

      It’s very close to the truth ... Only when things start to turn out very badly, when the question arises between life and death, it’s not known where a leader like Adolf Aloisovich comes from, and everybody runs home ... And again, Russia will have to fulfill its peacekeeping mission .. . Again with the assistance ??? what
      No ... An urgent need to stir up something in Mexico ... wink
  10. kos2910
    kos2910 13 December 2015 09: 57
    Quote: EvgNik
    Was now in Perm and very unpleasantly struck by change

    Strange, I live in Perm, and I might have seen blacks a couple of times, but in a way that would be more than in Moscow ... Something you, my friend, are confusing. Of course, there are a lot of migrant workers from Central Asia, but I would not say that it is excessive, everyone speaks Russian, everything is within normal limits.
    BARKHAN 13 December 2015 10: 08
    Thanks to the author. Good article. Thoughtful.
    Only now, the author delicately circumvented ways out of the situation.
    And he, oddly enough, is only one. This is to send all migrants outside Europe and establish an insurmountable barrier to the flow. All other options are verbiage. But for such an exit, the willful decision of a leader, practically a dictator, is necessary. currently impossible in Europe. EUROPE DOOMED! It is doomed as a holistic structure, and as a competitor to the United States. The Eastern New Europeans will be the first to fall down and close their borders.
    I don’t believe in the coming of the extreme right to power. They have no one to lead.
    Perhaps this sounds very rude, but I'm even glad that the colonialists with the colonized people have swapped places. After all the dirt has been watered upon us, after all the taunts, the current situation is fair.
    These huge masses of newcomers will sooner or later drive the countries of Europe into the composition of the third world countries. They dilute the general level of "quality" of the population by their direct infusion.
    Why is Europe good? Because Europeans live and work in it!
    And if Arabs and Africans live and "work" in it, then it will be Africa and the Middle East! With all the "charms and smells".
    Some commentators write correctly ... It would not hurt us to pay attention to our "streams".
    The main thing is to use the Canadian experience. To prohibit compact residence in one place of groups of a certain nationality. That is, the creation of enclaves.
    I repeat. This problem requires a tough decision of the leader. No democracy will pass here.
  12. mivail
    mivail 13 December 2015 10: 19
    All these processes are artificially simulated by the Americans for a specific purpose. The junction is near. We need to prepare to defend our borders and our interests in the world, ignoring the war of Western "crap". Because sooner or later they will want to solve their problems at our expense.
  13. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 13 December 2015 10: 42
    This influx of refugees, so "sudden" and timely, is an action planned by the Turks, in which the Turkish police and special services play an important role. Russia broke the whole game of Turkey, so such hysteria, in spite of ... And there is no need to tell horror stories about the Turkish army, powerful and unconquerable.
  14. Simple
    Simple 13 December 2015 11: 27
    Quote: from article
    ... Then there were conquests, but that's another story.

    At one fine moment there may be another "Arab spring" but already in Germany or France.

    The fact "that the average temperature in the hospital" in the field of education and in terms of overall personality development is falling.

    Even before the massive influx of refugees in Germany and France, there was such a phenomenon as parallel justice.

    If the trend only in terms of creating "parallel justice" continues, then this alone can destroy

    legal basis of the state.

    The fact is that none of the Muslims will be converted to Christianity.

    The fact that even before the massive influx of refugees existed systemic unemployment.

    The fact is that in half an hour another representative from the settlers will arrive to the trash can of our house on a bicycle (not yet from the wave of 2015 of the year).