Military Review

Crescent threatens

52
Turkish authorities are expelling Russian journalists from the country, the media is witnessing a new round of rumors about Ankara’s planned creation of a security zone in northern Syria, and Russia is sending a Pacific cruiser to the coast of Latakia fleet Varyag, a ship of the same class as Moscow, which in turn will return to Sevastopol. At the same time, the Rostov-on-Don submarine strikes cruise fighters with cruise missiles, simultaneously sending a warning to the "Ottoman Sultan." That was only one day, namely December 8, 2015. The escalation is slowly but surely continuing. Although in words both sides advocate reconciliation, their actions suggest otherwise.


Crescent threatens


Quite a few people express sincere bewilderment at how quickly our relations deteriorated, but in reality everything went to the current situation for a very long time. The contradictions were not so serious that they could fight because of them, but it was already clear then that only war could resolve them in the future. For example, in the nineties Turkey, repeatedly changed the regime of passage through the straits, introducing provisions that directly contradict the Montreux Convention (you can read about them separately in thematic articles). At the same time, Ankara actively supported the terrorists in the Caucasus, who were generously supplied with NATO equipment and were treated on the warm Mediterranean shores. If the annexation of the Crimea in 2014 caused an acute hostility to our southern neighbors, then the direct intervention of Moscow in Syria literally infuriated them, which sooner or later would manifest itself in one form or another.

The attack on the Su-24 was only the beginning of a major shift. As noted earlier, Ankara wants to create a “security zone” in the northern part of Syria through a direct invasion, where, if successful, militant camps and tent camps will be relocated for their family members, which are now located directly on Turkish territory.

Such a Turkish plan puts an end to all Moscow’s efforts to save the current Syrian government, since the war will turn into meaningless - new parties of militants will constantly attack from the pro-Turkish enclave. The only chance is to bomb directly invading Syria Tanks and armored personnel carriers, which constitute legal booty for our bombers and attack aircraft. And NATO is unlikely to be active, because if a member of the alliance climbed into the territory of a neighboring country and suffered losses there, then "no one is to blame for him." Not an insured event, as they say.

Another scenario is possible. Its implementation would be madness on the part of Ankara, but after the attack on the Su-24, this option should also be considered. Namely - the attack of the Turkish Armed Forces on the Russian bases in Syria and ships in the Mediterranean. Of course, this is already a big war (only Russian-Turkish, since NATO will immediately disown such an ally), but there is a reason for the current Turkish regime - the rise of a wave of nationalism inside the country, as well as “clearing the field” for actions in Syria . Bonus comes overlapping straits for Russia.

True, the pluses end there. Russia's retaliatory strike can significantly destroy both the enemy’s fleet and its Aviation, not to mention the fragile civilian infrastructure like power plants, telecentres and treatment facilities. It is not in vain that our pilots and sailors used expensive cruise missiles on Islamists so many times that they launched from a distance of thousands of kilometers. It is now clear that the point was not in the destruction of carts and sheds, but in practicing actions against a specific organized enemy. Obviously, even before the Su-24, the Russian General Staff was suspected that a collision was inevitable.

In a direct clash, both Russia and Turkey have their strengths and weaknesses. In the same time история More than once, she argued that war is not a competition for more tanks, airplanes, or ships. War is a clash of economies, management systems, and most importantly, the readiness of every nation to make sacrifices. In other words, the war wins, among other things, the one who wants to win more.

Crimean front

Another field of confrontation between Russia and Turkey is in the Crimea, where Ankara has a powerful ally in Kiev. According to scattered information from the blogosphere in the Kherson region, not only militants of the Majlis gather, but also military experts from the Turkish coast, who are going to organize an armed "Crimean Tatars uprising against the invaders" in the Crimea according to the "People's uprising against Assad" in Syria. At the same time, from the north, “to help the insurgent people”, through the Perekop, the Ukrainian army group beats ...



The possibility of such a scenario, in principle, is, however, it is furnished with a large number of various "buts". The most important of these is the condition of the surrender of Donbass under the Kiev authorities, with the mandatory transfer of the border under the control of the Ukrainian army - namely the army, not the border guards. Only after this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will free up their forces for the Crimea, given that they will have to leave some kind of grouping in the Donbas, as well as near Transnistria and directly in Kiev.

In general, of course, the Ukrainian direction is a separate field for analysis, although we now simply have to take into account the Ukrainian-Turkish coordination. Indeed, in the event of a serious aggravation on one of the fronts, a blow may follow on the other.

Additional problems

Turkey is an active member of NATO, so everything that happens in the alliance now has a special meaning. So, the day before the invitation of Montenegro, and specifically 1 December, another important event occurred. The NATO foreign ministers decided that hybrid attacks could be the reason for the application of the NATO collective defense article, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference following the meeting. The decision is amazing and insane at the same time, because it changes the entire architecture of the alliance’s actions since its inception. Previously, under aggression against one of the NATO members, a very specific set of actions by an external force was considered. Let the individual points from this set could be interpreted widely enough, but on the whole they at least made sense. “Hybrid war” is a concept so abstract that it doesn’t even have a normal academic definition, let alone scientific research on what is considered a “hybrid” attack, and what is not. The absence of such a definition leaves an incredible scope for interpretation. And it is clear that the same people who determine the degree of “democracy” of this or that country will give an assessment. Now the world war, which global bankers dream of, can arise even without a special reason. Under the definition of "hybrid attack" can get, say, the events of the "Bronze Night" 2007, in Tallinn, where there were as many as two elements of the so-called. "Hybrid war": mass protests and cyber attacks.

It is very easy to provoke such events again, as it is easy to blame Russia for what happened, naturally, without presenting any evidence. Since Latvia and Estonia, where such events are in principle possible, remain members of NATO, the consequences of a new interpretation of the defensive alliance are not difficult to imagine. The Baltic-Kaliningrad direction is still only being prepared for provocations, and this is an extremely slow matter, but it would be highly unwise to ignore what is happening.

"Sharp-witted"

The tangled story of an attempt to ram a Russian patrolman "Sharp-witted" by a Turkish seiner only splashed oil into the general flame. Similar incidents, according to our sailors, have happened before, but mostly either in the Bosporus or in the Sea of ​​Marmara, but never in the Aegean Sea, where Greece’s unofficial responsibility zone begins. If the goal was to raise the degree of tension, then it is certainly achieved. The crews of Russian warships, passing through the straits, are forced to take into account the fact that they are in the waters of a hostile country. On the part of the Turks to our Navy - a similar attitude. The risk that someone will lose their nerves rises many times over, not to mention the wide possibilities for provocation on the part of third parties.

As a result, we have a rather frightening picture. If earlier it was possible to carefully draw up a planning horizon for about a year, now it is a maximum for a quarter, and then with many known reservations. Events in the world are developing according to the most unpredictable scenario, drawing in all new players, so forecasts made today can fly into the basket in a couple of weeks.
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  1. Glot
    Glot 14 December 2015 06: 51
    19
    The confusing story of an attempt by a Turkish bastard to ram a Russian watchman “Shrewd” by a Turkish seiner only splashed oil into the flames. Similar incidents, according to our sailors, have happened before, but mainly either in the Bosphorus or in the Sea of ​​Marmara, but never in the Aegean Sea, where the unwritten zone of responsibility of Greece begins.


    And what's really confusing? Everything is transparent. We were checked again. Thank God that it was also a seiner, and not something more serious. And it is not at all a fact that in the near future some of our ships will not be turned up to an adult. Since we again only "threatened with a finger" by spitting from the side of the "Sharp-eyed" from small arms. Or maybe it was necessary to break the seiner from bow to stern? Although of course THERE knows better what to do and how to react ...
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. fyvaprold
      fyvaprold 14 December 2015 09: 52
      +2
      Quote: Glot
      We were checked again

      God grant that. Indeed, on the seiner, besides fish, there could be combat swimmers, who are very professional in Turkey. And this is already a different alignment, I hope the crew of "Sharp-witted" has checked the underwater part, otherwise they will again say: "I was blown up by a German mine of WWII times." Sincerely.
      1. the most important
        the most important 14 December 2015 20: 08
        0
        Quote: fyvaprold
        Indeed, on the seiner, in addition to fish, there could also be combat swimmers, who are very professional in Turkey.

        after a good salvo of guns, everyone drowns the same way ...
    3. Blondy
      Blondy 14 December 2015 09: 54
      +3
      Another field of confrontation between Russia and Turkey is in the Crimea, where Ankara has a powerful ally in the person of Kiev. According to scattered information from the blogosphere

      Some kind of virtual blogosphere reality with powerful allies.
  2. nikolas 83
    nikolas 83 14 December 2015 06: 56
    12
    If we got into a seiner, we would be immediately accused of attacking civilian vessels, although they probably will. So again blah blah Russia is an evil empire, sanctions and so on. The Turks are acting according to the state scenario, the fools of Durku say that they didn’t approach the Russian ship, such quiet peaceful fishermen. And as always, all Western media will believe them.
    1. fyvaprold
      fyvaprold 14 December 2015 09: 57
      +3
      Quote: nikolas 83
      If we got into the seiner, we would be immediately accused of assaulting civilian vessels, although they will probably be blamed.

      We are accused even when our MiG-31 is intercepted by NATO fighters, who tried, sorry for the tautology, to intercept our interceptor. Sincerely.
    2. McLuha-MacLeod
      McLuha-MacLeod 14 December 2015 11: 07
      +1
      There is a clear algorithm for the actions of the crew of a warship and all sorts of things if they don’t steer here
      1. CAMS
        CAMS 15 December 2015 00: 30
        +1
        Algorithms are for us, but for the western citizen there is all the power of the media broadcasting only the truth about Russian barbarians. By the way, there is an opinion that Hitler was provoked to start a war
  3. Kazakh
    Kazakh 14 December 2015 07: 06
    +7
    military experts from the Turkish coast who are going to arrange in Crimea an armed "uprising of the Crimean Tatars against the invaders"
    Well, let them try, now we don’t have warm Uzbekistan for the Crimean Tatars and if they can compare the southern coast of the Kara Sea with the northern coast of the Black Sea.
    1. hydrox
      hydrox 14 December 2015 07: 32
      +3
      It's okay.
      They will not raise the Tatars of Crimea, but the polite people will shoot terrorists in small batches and feed the fish so that this turkotatar trash does not even stink.
      1. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 14 December 2015 10: 22
        +8
        Quote: hydrox
        They will not raise the Tatars of Crimea, but the polite people will shoot terrorists in small batches and feed the fish so that this turkotatar trash does not even stink.

        It also seems to me that in the bulk of the Crimean Tatars will not support the "leaders" of the Mezhelis, especially since the Turks were cut off the channels of financing the "irreconcilable" on the peninsula.
        Chubarov, Islyamov and Dzhemilev - three footers in exile who arranged a "dark" blockade against the "Novogolodomor" for their fellow tribesmen no longer have the levers of influence and pressure on the Tatars who do not agree to die for "Chubaroislyamodzhemilev" interests. The Tatars in Crimea realized that these three traitors, exploiting the Crimean Tatar theme, simply stupidly earn grants for themselves from Turkish and mattress sponsors and they deeply don’t care how many Tatars to destroy in the name of their interests.
        1. aleks 62 next
          aleks 62 next 14 December 2015 14: 59
          0
          .... It also seems to me that in the bulk of the Crimean Tatars will not support the "leaders" of the Mezhelis ...

          .... Exactly - it seems .... Visit local markets and listen ..... By the way, there are adequate ones .... But unfortunately, not enough .... hi
  4. 31rus
    31rus 14 December 2015 07: 14
    +6
    Dear, we predicted and predicted a provocation with a Russian ship on our website, I’m sure there will be other provocations as for the scenarios described by the author, the situation can go differently, for example, Turkish forces will invade the northern part of Syria, imitating (even capture a couple of leaders) the fight against Daesh, while large forces will not be immediately introduced and I’m not sure that the air forces will start attacking the Turkish armed forces in Syria, and this is precisely the key point, since the Turks will immediately try to create camps on this territory refugees, all sorts of humanitarian organizations, and it’s clear no one will bomb them, how far the Turkish armed forces can invade? I suppose until they meet Syrian resistance.
    1. hydrox
      hydrox 14 December 2015 07: 38
      0
      Now, when the SAA reaches the Turks, they will not understand who is standing in front of them on their own territory, but will begin to talk with the Kurds, who will begin to pinch the Turks on the other side (especially when delivering Russian weapons) - then we’ll see how long the Janissaries will resist on Syrian soil ...
    2. Lelek
      Lelek 14 December 2015 11: 18
      0
      Quote: 31rus
      Turkish Armed Forces will invade the northern part of Syria, imitating (even may capture a couple of leaders) the fight against Daesh


      But to prevent this from happening, as in Iraq, it is necessary to publicly declare a combat zone along the entire section of the Turkish-Syrian border and "extinguish" on Syrian territory everyone who appears there. Let the Turks sit behind the concrete wall they have undertaken to build.
    3. Bolhevik
      Bolhevik 14 December 2015 18: 51
      0
      Because of the provocation with the Turkish border, the militants most likely not only retreat but also flow from Syria to Afghanistan, which is controlled by the NATO bloc, and most likely will flow out in Tajikistan, and from there the newly minted painters will move little by little with new ksiv and it will go away where. The script is on the face. And the degree of security of this border will depend no less than on a hole in the Syrian-Turkish border. So, most likely, leaving the meat on the front line for retreat the more raw part has already spilled over.
      I will add about provocations - NATO's level of awareness in the field of surveillance and control over the world’s network allowing them to read in typing mode, not just provocation - but rather direct participation in the encryption of online recruitment of gang underground.
  5. inkass_98
    inkass_98 14 December 2015 07: 18
    +2
    In this case, we can agree with Kabardin in the sense that the degree of tension is increasing, it can explode at any moment. But I can say with confidence that Turkey in this case will be a scapegoat, since its NATO colleagues have repeatedly excused themselves from their involvement in Turkish antics and demarches. Even if this fishing trough were drowned, it was still declared a problem between the two countries, and not an "attack" on the entire NATO bloc.
  6. Darkness
    Darkness 14 December 2015 07: 22
    0
    In a direct clash between Russia and Turkey, Turkey will be wiped off the face of the earth in about three hours, if desired.
  7. 24rus
    24rus 14 December 2015 07: 27
    +2
    Turkey is a member of NATO. Legs grow from there
    1. Cap.Morgan
      Cap.Morgan 14 December 2015 08: 24
      -1
      NATO will not fight for the Turks.
      So they do not need provocations.
      All this is an initiative of the Turks, who became impudent at the end, trying to recreate the Ottoman Empire at a convenient moment, and the Turks forgot everything ... for a hundred years they did not fight at large.
      1. Dilshat
        Dilshat 14 December 2015 11: 14
        -1
        Erdogan should ask a question with all honest Turkish people: What will happen if NATO backs down. Are you ready to go to the end? Are you ready to see how the whole Turkish people burn in the flames of a nuclear explosion? Fighting Russia with "ordinary" all with every Turkey is unacceptable luxury and once.
        1. -Traveller-
          -Traveller- 15 December 2015 01: 27
          -1
          the last arrogant phrase conceals the understanding that we won’t get a lot of conventional weapons there. therefore, every second vigorous bomb threatens here.
          I personally think that the idea of ​​nuclear war over some Middle Eastern sectarian seems to be utter idiocy. let them put him in an orange robe and cut off his head on the camera, I don’t care. why am I supposed to see a nuclear mushroom in the window?
  8. tracker
    tracker 14 December 2015 07: 33
    +4
    In addition to Ukraine, Turkey was dragged into the orbit of openly hostile countries, it was easy, Erdogan and other extremely unbalanced and aggressive politicians with their almost global claims for leadership in the region easily went for it. In the future, tension will only increase and our military needs to be prepared for even more serious provocations. Moreover, they will strike immediately in Syria or nearby and in Ukraine, in the Donbass, and maybe in the Crimea, and they can arrange a border conflict in Armenia. The question is only in choosing the moment.
    1. Mikhail Krapivin
      Mikhail Krapivin 14 December 2015 08: 47
      +1
      Quote: Pathfinder
      Moreover, they will strike immediately in Syria or nearby and in Ukraine, in the Donbass, and maybe in the Crimea, and in Armenia they can arrange a border conflict. The question is only in choosing the moment.


      That is precisely why the moment must be chosen by ourselves and not be complex about: our image, the opinion of the world community, etc. etc. If the question is -
      we or us, let it be better - we.
  9. parusnik
    parusnik 14 December 2015 07: 35
    +2
    Confusing story with the attempt of a ram of the Russian watchman “Shrewd” by a Turkish seiner.. I don’t see anything confused .. an attempt at an ordinary provocation ... to show the "animal" face of Russia, to present it as an aggressor ...
  10. pascal309
    pascal309 14 December 2015 07: 35
    0
    At a military forum, former and current military men hinted in conversations that some of the tactical missiles had already been redirected to Turkey. We have no reason to fight with conventional weapons. The war should be fast, and possibly without losses. U all unanimously claim that the war will be fleeting.
    1. S_last
      S_last 14 December 2015 10: 12
      +6
      This apparently you got on the forum of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. They usually sit there and allude to where and what they redirected. Yeah, and most importantly, it is there that everyone introduces themselves, they write like that, I’m a military soldier, the general is such a hint, and went on to hint. And of course, the war will be quick and victorious, they used to write with little blood, now they have gone further, without any loss at all. What ended the quick wars is easy to learn by giving history half an hour of its invaluable time.
    2. Squelcher
      Squelcher 14 December 2015 11: 24
      0
      If I'm not mistaken, Turkey has the US nuclear weapons.
      A tactical I / O attack on Turkey could provoke a full-scale nuclear conflict if the US military gets under the hand.
      I hope the Turks have enough sanity to stop in time .....
    3. eucledes
      eucledes 14 December 2015 12: 05
      -1
      Then Krant Crimea :(
    4. Stirbjorn
      Stirbjorn 14 December 2015 12: 56
      +2
      Yes, no one will shoot at the Turks of nuclear weapons, why are you? Well this will be a precedent. They didn’t freak in Afghanistan, they didn’t do in Georgia, and they did in Belarus - yeah right now ...
  11. ermolai
    ermolai 14 December 2015 07: 46
    0
    Quote: Kazakh
    compare the southern coast of the Kara Sea with the northern coast of the black.

    no and no again! only with the south coast of the Laptev Sea let them compare. for 99 years without the right to relocate to descendants.
  12. Riv
    Riv 14 December 2015 08: 11
    +1
    The uprising of the Tatars in the Crimea ??? Thank you, have fun on Monday morning. :)))
    1. aleks 62 next
      aleks 62 next 14 December 2015 15: 02
      0
      ..... The uprising of the Tatars in Crimea ??? Thank you, have fun on Monday morning. :))) ...

      .... I am glad that you were amused .... But one who has fun without consequences .... There are also enough frostbitten ones among them .... And quite a lot ....
  13. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 14 December 2015 08: 37
    +2
    Not an insured event, as they say.

    Maybe you are right. But in the event of a tangible blow to Turkey, NATO will simply be obliged to harness it, otherwise it will lose not only its "authority", which is not up to par, but will also show its weakness. The question is, is this (a real armed conflict) part of NATO's plans? And Erdogan has really lost not only a sense of political measure, but also guidelines.
  14. Svarog5570
    Svarog5570 14 December 2015 08: 53
    +1
    As the Roman senator said "Carthage must be destroyed" the same can be said about Turkey
  15. Izotovp
    Izotovp 14 December 2015 09: 01
    +1
    Most likely, the entire provocation with the seiner was filmed from several points, and if the sailors did not act strictly according to the Charter and within the framework of international law, then this would have already begun ... !!!! Standard enough provocation, at the Pacific Fleet, I think, there are enough specialists to work with such "peaceful" Japanese seiners. To be continued, one must be ready for this.
  16. Seraphimamur
    Seraphimamur 14 December 2015 09: 19
    +3
    It’s interesting how many provocations the Turks must make and how many Russians must die so that Russia responds. What? Traditionally, a note of protest or sanction. Or a war with a NATO country? Which one is traditional or atomic?
    Traditionally, our economy is unlikely to stretch. So atomic. And those in power in Russia have something to lose. Thus, the sad conclusion: the Turks will provoke us will be victims among the Russians and Russia will express protests in one form or another. Unfortunately, the Russian Federation is not the USSR and our society is not the same.
    1. S_last
      S_last 14 December 2015 10: 21
      0
      That's strange, there is something to lose power, but you have nothing. You are so miserable, you have nothing but shackles. And how it happened is hard to understand. You have no children, no mothers, no loved ones, and just friends. And you want to burn everything in the flame of war. No, to volunteer, for example, in the same Syria, since there is nothing to lose. Yeah, now, it’s better to write about atomic war here.
  17. Belousov
    Belousov 14 December 2015 09: 31
    0
    This is not the last provocation. You have to be on your guard. In the event of a Russia-Turkey conflict, NATO will initially be a sideline. If there is a fuss of the Nan boys, they will continue to get off with "worried statements", but if we start fighting seriously, then they will have to harness. This is not a fast process, though. Even under pressure from a puddle, the Germans, French and other Spaniards and Portuguese are unlikely to want to receive coffins for the interests of the states and Erdogan. The only hope will be for stubborn Poles, Hohlobandera and other Romanians. But these never knew how to fight.
  18. Gray 43
    Gray 43 14 December 2015 09: 33
    +1
    Do not flatter yourself that NATO will not harness for Erdogan if it is profitable for them to harness with joy, especially since they are only executors of someone else's will, and all these protests and public opinion will crush the struggle "for human rights" and everyone knows this person. they together smashed the country and the continent into trash, and here is such a "gift" - the conflict between Erdogan and Putin, two leaders who, to varying degrees, do not like the West, but Putin, perhaps, will build a new Union, and Erdogan dreams of a new Empire, with boundaries striking imagination and common sense
  19. Dimka999
    Dimka999 14 December 2015 09: 33
    +8
    Kiev is a powerful ally ????)))
    1. ydjin
      ydjin 14 December 2015 15: 18
      0
      Quote: Dimka999
      Kiev is a powerful ally ????)))

      Thank you, fun question! Laughed heartily ' laughing
  20. guzik007
    guzik007 14 December 2015 09: 33
    +1
    It was necessary to listen to Bagdasarov, and not to the gums ... strategists.
    1. -Traveller-
      -Traveller- 15 December 2015 01: 44
      +1
      Bagdasarov, Kurginyan, etc., etc., Russian political scientists, Armenians. Isn’t too many of these comrades formed by public opinion from TV screens? I doubt that giving advice on what to do and how to live Russian, they forget about their Armenian origin. Are they pushing Russia where they need the Armenians?
  21. solovald
    solovald 14 December 2015 10: 18
    0
    It was not for nothing that VVP mentioned the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons. I think it will cool Erdogan and NATO. In general, in my opinion, forceful opposition should not be replaced by diplomatic steps alone: ​​the West has long been playing by "its own diplomatic rules", which, if necessary, adjust for itself, and nothing shines for us on their field. Here, even Ukrainians are urged not to repay debts.
    1. Kaiten
      Kaiten 14 December 2015 15: 35
      +2
      Quote: solovald
      I guess this will cool Erdogan and NATO

      Yes, nothing will cool. It was necessary to immediately either shoot down their plane or smash their radar. Erdogan clearly perceives what you did not answer as weakness. It must be understood that exposure to BV is clearly perceived as weakness.
  22. oxotnuk86
    oxotnuk86 14 December 2015 10: 35
    +2
    I don’t agree why all the time Turtsyya is a NATO member. Yes, not one MEMBER, nor all NATO even dare to fart without the hegemon's go-ahead. Who is the master of this pack? All their independence is written on hegemonic toilet paper.
  23. eucledes
    eucledes 14 December 2015 12: 22
    +2
    And why is there so much noise around "Sharp-witted"?
    How many overflights of NATO ships were the Russian Air Force aircraft in the Black Sea - incl. and with simulated attacks?
    And here in the comments it warmly greeted.
    And then some seiner passed by the hefty ex-BOD ex-Komsomol Ukrainy - and such a stir, they kind of offended us.

    And, by the way, how to understand the statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation that the seiner was discovered "at a distance of about 1 meters"? The radars did not work, and the watchmen did not see it during the day in clear weather, until the seiner got closer to the AK's lethal range?
    And what does it mean, "anchored 22 km from Lesvos"? - it turns out that he defended in NATO territorial waters: the border of the 12-mile zone - 22.2 km.

    In general, somehow everything is wildly crooked.
  24. Hort
    Hort 14 December 2015 13: 28
    +1
    It is now clear that the point was not in the destruction of carts and sheds, but in practicing actions against a specific organized enemy. Obviously, even before the Su-24, the Russian General Staff was suspected that a collision was inevitable.
    in general there is such a theory that wars are planned about 3-4 years before they begin
  25. Megatron
    Megatron 14 December 2015 14: 30
    +4
    Again, another cowardly article from kabardine on the topic - everything was gone.
    Ukraine does not take Crimea - the digging is very reliably blocked. And the invasion in the Belgorod-Kharkov direction will immediately follow from us.
    Tatars inside the Crimea? Yes, their locals would be happy to raise their knives, since those events such thoughts have been, if they had not calmed down on time.
  26. eucledes
    eucledes 14 December 2015 15: 23
    -4
    Quote: Megatron
    Again, another cowardly article from kabardine on the topic - everything was gone.
    Ukraine does not take Crimea - the digging is very reliably blocked. And the invasion in the Belgorod-Kharkov direction will immediately follow from us.
    Tatars inside the Crimea? Yes, their locals would be happy to raise their knives, since those events such thoughts have been, if they had not calmed down on time.

    In the meantime, Chernomorneftegaz is sacking drilling platforms from western fields.
    Damn, when we had a blackout in Crimea, even though there were no problems with gas due to this offshore production - and now, given the fact that they brought gas-turbine units that are quite expensive to eat gas ...
  27. matross
    matross 14 December 2015 16: 50
    +1
    Dear Igor Kabardin, you need a course of sedatives to drink. Himself is scared and all nightmares. Turkey will not start a suicidal war with Russia. And no one will force her. Ukraine and that could not be forced.
  28. Qyomur
    Qyomur 14 December 2015 18: 59
    0
    Good day. For a long time it was not possible to calmly browse the forum, but recent events have really caused concern. I am absolutely sure that the constant provocations and aggressive behavior of Turkey are not Erdogan's personal initiative. Apparently in the State Department they recalled a long-forgotten map, which they always played in the big game against Russia ... the map is Turkey. I recall the Crimean War. No matter how this time it happened. Then, too, Europe did not particularly intervene in the differences, and then the BAC and the coalition landing in the Crimea. Just Crimea is now in the spotlight.
    1. Megatron
      Megatron 15 December 2015 14: 16
      0
      Let’s continue to live like this when every muin kicks us from under the nails, Turkey, Usrain.
  29. acetophenon
    acetophenon 14 December 2015 22: 17
    0
    Still, the war ...
  30. Robert Nevsky
    Robert Nevsky 14 December 2015 22: 19
    0
    I read and re-read the article with great interest ...
  31. iouris
    iouris 15 December 2015 00: 48
    0
    Do not waste words. The demo is now complete. Everyone understands that there will be no more caliber volleys in regular equipment. The next task is to take control of the northern border of Syria, grind the Turkish special forces disguised as "fighters against the hated regime", squeeze Turkish troops out of Iraqi territory. To deprive Erdogan of oil money. So far, little has changed for the "Bagdat Thief": instead of ISIS, the supply of cheap oil stolen from the Iraqi and Syrian states is covered by the Turkish army. We should expect provocations on the ground, at sea, in the air, the purpose of which is to appear in the position of a victim of aggression and force NATO to come out of the shadows. It is necessary to gradually blur the line between Erdogan's tricks and the position of Washington and NATO. Turkey's attack on Russian troops in Syria is a NATO attack. Turkey's aggression against Iraq is NATO aggression. ISIS does not attack Turkish and NATO troops. NATO aircraft (France and Great Britain) are bombing Syrian forces that are conducting operations against ISIS. France and Britain provide air support for ISIS. ISIS is the assault force of Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia - the official allies of the United States. The operation against the so-called ISIS is a defensive war against the Western coalition.
    1. -Traveller-
      -Traveller- 15 December 2015 02: 33
      +1
      there is neither Syria nor Iraq. artificial post-mandate states, as it were, without any internal prerequisites for further existence. their collapse is inevitable and actually has already happened. the only question is which of the real subjects (Turkey, Iran, maybe Saudi Arabia) will pick up the fragments.
      that Russia would not undertake to drastically affect this process is impossible, except perhaps to delay it in time and provide one of the parties with an advantage in the division of territories.
      This is understood by the British, because For them, the region is understandable, which cannot be said about Russia. maybe I'm wrong, and everyone understands the laurels and subordinates, but they don’t voice it, but in my opinion they didn’t see anything in complete prostration and besides a hypothetical Qatari pipe, and then, like a snowball, the contradictions will only grow. the region is traditionally not ours and we have nothing to catch there, except maybe the show off. But just in time?
  32. Lexa-149
    Lexa-149 15 December 2015 02: 17
    -1
    Provocation. The principles are as old as the world. As Vysotsky sang:
    ... you need to sit down, tie the driver,
    Play a simple thief.
    And then about this case
    Trumpeted by the BBC.
  33. Yak28
    Yak28 15 December 2015 06: 35
    -1
    From the history of Russia, a fool understands that the Turks are rotten people and could only be friends with them. There will be serious provocations from Turkey, then we must declare war, NATO will support the Turks, then we will have to fight with them. On the side of Russia, it is true, and therefore victory will be ours.