Military Review

If tomorrow is war?

95



When, in early childhood, I served urgent service in the USSR Strategic Missile Forces, on the predecessor Topol and Yarsov, the medium-range mobile missile system RSD-10 Pioneer (according to NATO classification), we had three types of combat readiness:

- “permanent”, when duty crews are in the barracks, in a twenty-minute readiness to enter the field area;

- “military danger” when the crew on duty is in a stationary position, directly in the vehicle, in immediate readiness to enter the field area;

- “full”, when the regiment secretly unfolded in the field area, which increased its chances of surviving after the first strike of the enemy.

At the same time, the regiment managed to launch its missiles in any case, since the installations of the start battalions (regardless of location and level of combat readiness) were in constant readiness for launch, which according to the standards was carried out during 2 minutes (flight time “Pershing” and "Tomahawks" was 5-6 minutes), but in reality the prepared calculations were enough for 40 seconds.

That is, the increase in the level of combat readiness was not made in order to have time to answer (they did in any case), but in order to increase the chances of their own units to survive by deploying them in advance into battle formations. Let me remind you that one of the main reasons (though not the only one) for the Soviet defeats of the summer of 1941 was that the enemy had anticipated the Soviet command with operational deployment. The result is lost frontier battles, the loss of thousands of pieces of equipment (not inferior to German in quality and superior in number), as well as virtually the entire personnel of the Red Army and a retreat thousands of kilometers into the territory.


The army and the country should be ready for war, even at a time when there seems to be no one to fight. Moreover, it is necessary to be ready when a hybrid war with a geopolitical adversary goes on for more than one year and at any moment a heated conflict can immediately break out with several neighbors who are thoughtfully pushed into the war with us by that same geopolitical adversary.

I have already written that all conflicts in which today, in one form or another, Russia participates are interrelated. Until now, the fronts have intensified in turns: Georgia, Syria, Ukraine, again Syria. But now we come to the situation of a radical change.

Turkey, having shot down a Russian bomber in the sky of Syria, was in a strategic trap. If she accepts the status quo, with the Syrian sky closed to her and the border closing, Erdogan’s regime loses the geopolitical game that it began a decade ago. Ankara, which claimed the first role in the Middle East and almost to re-create (in a new format) the Ottoman Empire, loses even the status of a regional power.

At the same time, it should be understood that Erdogan has an extremely difficult domestic political situation. To put it mildly, a significant part of the Turkish elite dislikes him. It is also not clear to what extent the purges carried out by him in the army protected him from the traditional Turkish surprises with the military. In any case, the military does not need a weak (loser) leader. Meanwhile, politicians in Turkey who lost the political struggle were hanged back in the seventies. And far less stained with blood than Erdogan.

The concentration of Turkish troops on the Syrian border (albeit under the specious pretext of fighting ISIL, at the request of the United States), in conditions of confrontation with Russia, creates conditions for a sudden escalation (which may even be accidental, and may disguise as accidental). In any case, for Erdogan, now the war is a way out more preferable than a retreat under Russian pressure. This is even without taking into account the Kurdish factor, which is an additional irritant for Turkey.

In war, he can count on covert (and not very) support from the United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The war gives him the opportunity not to mask the alliance with ISIS. He may try to stimulate the defrosting of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and, in principle, play to destabilize the Caucasus.

Of course, the war also stimulates the consolidation of the Russian-Syrian-Iranian union and, possibly, the formalization of relations with the Kurds. But, on the other hand, it will require certainty from NATO. Yes, Greece has dreamed all its life to fight with Turkey, and not with Russia. Yes, in the Balkans, in principle, pro-Russian sentiments are strong and, given all this, NATO cannot side with Turkey. But also to keep silent, in the event of a military conflict between a NATO member and Russia, against which the bloc was always directed, NATO will not be able (then the Alliance will lose its meaning of existence). A compromise option could be peacekeeping attempts on behalf of the EU and NATO, under the threat of increasing sanctions and even rendering military technical assistance to Turkey (without entering into direct military actions on its side).

The West (the US and the EU) will have an ideal opportunity during mediation in negotiations to regain positions in the Middle East that were lost during fruitless attempts to remove Assad by military means.

It is clear that if politicians in the Caucasus are cautious enough and in an open conflict with Russia because of Turkey they will not even get involved under US guarantees (they know the price of these guarantees well), then Ukrainian leaders have a worse situation than Erdogan. The Minsk process has already led to the isolation of Ukraine from the leading EU countries, to the loss of its financial support for the West, without which the country cannot survive even a year. The primorozhenny conflict in the Donbass against the background of the complete collapse of the economy and the impoverishment of the masses made Poroshenko, the government of Yatsenyuk and even Rada, consisting for a third of the “heroes of the Maidan” and the “heroes of the ATO” hated not only for the Nazi militants (always considered that the overthrow of Yanukovich is only the first stage of the Nazi revolution), but also for the liberal-European integration mass of “creative” Maidan hamsters, already ready to merge in ecstasy with the Nazis in the rebellion against Poroshenko, as they most recently merged with them in the rebellion against Yanukov icha

Of course, such a rebellion will finish Ukraine. But Poroshenko-Yatsenyuk from this is not easier, because first of all he will finish them off. The only way to ward off the danger of insurrection is to intensify the fighting in the Donbas. In fact, to break the Minsk truce and start a new war.

So far, Kiev has been restrained only by the danger of an instant military defeat, with complete indifference of the West (Paris and Berlin were quite clearly opposed to the violation of the Minsk agreements). But, if we enter into a conflict simultaneously with Turkey, as a military ally of Erdogan, then we can expect that the Russian forces stretched across all fronts will finish Ukraine not fast enough. Moreover, Russia may not immediately translate the civil war in Ukraine into the format of an interstate conflict, and the Donbass militia is not capable of a deep breakthrough towards Kiev due to insufficient numbers. Kiev can expect to become, along with Turkey, the object of Euro-American peacekeeping. In the end, Moscow’s plans in Ankara and Kiev can only be guessed at, but the fact that Washington is losing with them will bless any provocation against Russia they are sure and will try to use this factor to their advantage.

During the new stage of the war in the Donbass, Poroshenko will try to utilize another part of the Nazi formations and weaken the rest as much as possible. Then, in the course of Western peacekeeping, exchange part of the territories (even if not two, but three or five regions) for a world guaranteed by NATO. This is his old dream. Moreover, NATO peacekeepers already need him and will be needed not to attack the lost territories (NATO will not fight with Russia because of him), but to protect the government from the Ukrainian Nazis, to disarm their gangs and stabilize the regime.

In this regard, the simultaneous or close to the time the performance of Turkey and Ukraine in the form of a series of growing provocations, quickly turning into open hostilities, is not just very likely, but is almost the only way of political survival of the regimes and physical survival of their leaders.

Note that for Russia, the activation of Ukraine will mean a threat to the rear communications, providing not only communication with the contingent in Syria, but also deployment against Turkey (including with the aim of protecting the Caucasus). Serious forces, including strength fleet will be bound by the protection of Crimea and the provision of communications with Transnistria, in case Kiev decides to become active in this direction (in order to draw Moldova into the conflict, and through it Romania, another NATO country).

Hence the consequence - it is necessary to be ready for a new war in the Donbass, which will occur in the conditions of opening a second front with Turkey or at least the presence of a constant threat from the Turkish factions deployed on the border with Syria.

But the war, especially the war with several opponents, in the most difficult geopolitical conditions, requires absolute unity of command. Until now, unity of command in the Donbass was ensured by the fact that the various Russian departments that oversaw the processes taking place there, through their leaders, locked themselves on to the president. Putin received reports along the political vertical, security vertical, intelligence vertical, army vertical, EMERCOM vertical, as well as from the Foreign Ministry, etc. and, if necessary, coordinated their actions.

The transition of the Russian participation in the Syrian crisis from the political to the military phase, of course, required additional attention of the president, but, nevertheless, the operation in Syria was carried out in the format of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, that is, did not go beyond the usual coordination.

If these two conflicts go into an open war phase with the participation of Russia (so far these are formally civil conflicts), and even with the danger of involving new states (both on one and the other side), and also with a sharp increase in military-political and diplomatic activity of the West, the president will need a new level of coordination. He will be too fully involved in the operational geopolitical game to quickly resolve issues of coordination of actions of various departments in narrow areas. In the same Donbass and in the same Syria (where the number of Russian departments involved will sharply increase, and the operation itself will lose a predominantly military character, due to a sharp increase in its political and diplomatic component).

Under these conditions, it becomes necessary to create an intermediate level of coordination. When in the Donbass, Syria (as well as in any other place where a new crisis will arise with Russian participation), the coordination of actions of different departments will decrease by one level (from the presidential one). If you give an example, it is something like the representatives of the Headquarters on the fronts of the Great Patriotic War. They coordinated the actions of several fronts involved in the conception of parallel operations, and their actions were already coordinated by the Supreme Commander.

The only difference is that now the main efforts are focused on political fronts. The war is a hybrid, with the main enemy, we are still "partners". Consequently, coordination is primarily political.

In particular, it is clear that if Ukraine and Turkey act simultaneously or almost simultaneously, then our main task will be to eliminate the eventual threat to the deep rear of Ukraine. Considering the danger of disinterested Western peacemaking, it is necessary to eliminate the Ukrainian danger militarily in a matter of days, a maximum of a week. Roughly speaking, it is not so important what identification marks will be on the soldiers entering Lviv (even if there are no such signs at all - what will you take with the militia). The main thing that they entered there.

But the process of political settlement (after the military phase) will be long and stretch (as I wrote about this back in 2014) for more than one year. It’s enough to see how hard it was for two years to bring the Donbass to a state at least close to normal. And here we will talk about the whole of Ukraine, besides stuffed with bandits and weapons to the eyeballs and with a far from friendly population living compactly over large areas.

And now it is too late to argue whether we need Galicia or not - we need to secure the rear of the Syrian operation from the Ukrainian government, which needs war as air (in conditions when the danger of Turkey’s appearance is extremely high). And sitting on any shred of the remaining Ukrainian territory, the current government will claim the right to represent the whole of Ukraine (even to the Crimea).

The armed forces can only quickly defeat the army. Further, without prejudging the results of the final political settlement, it is necessary to create an administration (it is possible in the form of several connected in a weak confederation of people's republics, it is possible in the form of a single central interim government, in the form of several unrelated regional administrations). It is not advisable to have there only an occupational Russian administration, since the Vienna and Geneva conventions prescribe that the occupying state is responsible for the population of the occupied territory, and this is such a trap that it is easier to fight immediately with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and half of Europe than to contain one Ukraine.

However, since only the most naive of the former Ukrainian leaders suggest that Russia will liberate Ukraine so that they can manage it as before, in fact, the Ukrainian elites have shown complete inability to work independently, control over the territory must be maintained regardless of the formally legalized system management. Since there is the experience of Donbass (management through local representatives, of which slowly, by trial and error, a new loyal, adequate to the tasks and able to respond to rapidly changing environment is formed), it is easiest to transfer it to the whole of Ukraine.

The sharp increase in geopolitical tasks requires an informal political centralization of the control of the territories under its control. Approximately, they should be managed according to the format of the federal district. And this scheme should be worked out right now on the experience of the two republics, since tomorrow the political headquarters will have to be deployed from the wheels, in an undeveloped structure and in an unsecured format.

Since the Ukrainian crisis is far from the last, where, after a military settlement, informal schemes of political control will have to be applied, working out a “pilot project” can make life much easier in the future. In the end, all the same, the Berlin or the Harbin would still need to take the troops of the army or the front, it only needs to select the troops and cut tasks.
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  1. The comment was deleted.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. gjv
      gjv 3 December 2015 13: 13 New
      +6
      Quote: SS68SS
      calculation is our main weapon

      Maybe I’ll be funny, but interesting.
      And for products of the Votkinsk plant there is a powerful but non-nuclear warhead?
      1. VNP1958PVN
        VNP1958PVN 3 December 2015 13: 30 New
        -14
        VODKINSKIY Zavod, he will defeat whom he likes! request
        1. dauria
          dauria 3 December 2015 14: 45 New
          +3
          we had three types of alertness:


          And we have four .... the author forgot the increased smile
      2. Rus2012
        Rus2012 3 December 2015 13: 40 New
        +1
        Quote: gjv
        And for products of the Votkinsk plant there is a powerful but non-nuclear warhead?

        ... have been!
        Read here - On the issue of non-nuclear “sobering up” or something little known about medium-range missiles.
        A few words must be said about another type of military equipment - the so-called non-nuclear warheads in special equipment... One such warhead was designed for the Pioneer-UTTKh rocket, the other was developed for the Pioneer-3 rocket. Both, in terms of originality and elegance of design solutions, deserve gold medals at the Brussels exhibitions (a graveyard joke). I believe, however, that the heads of this species could hardly be the cause

        Karyagin Yuri Vasilievich
        Moscow, December 2006
      3. maxiban
        maxiban 3 December 2015 13: 43 New
        23
        It’s a good article, everything is painted here, as if Russia would only respond to the existing challenges, and not work ahead of the curve. I think that the elimination of a couple of hundred Western agents in Ukraine will significantly reduce the degree of tension in this direction. And will prepare a loyal government.
        1. ILIA
          ILIA 3 December 2015 14: 22 New
          0
          I agree completely. I want to remind you that not so long ago the "doctrine" was changed, that everyone knows that ... Moreover, our people understand that NATO bases will need to be covered before they scatter over a large territory and they will have to be "caught". In short, advancing is our everything.
        2. Gomunkul
          Gomunkul 3 December 2015 14: 48 New
          +1
          And will prepare a loyal government.
          So it seems to have already been created: "The Committee for the Salvation of Ukraine." called.
        3. Gomunkul
          Gomunkul 3 December 2015 14: 48 New
          0
          And will prepare a loyal government.
          So it seems to have already been created: "The Committee for the Salvation of Ukraine." called.
        4. silver_roman
          silver_roman 3 December 2015 17: 20 New
          0
          as it were, it’s good to be ahead of the curve, but it must be borne in mind that having started the war against the Russian Federation with the hands of Turks and Ukrainians, the Yankees will also try to rekindle the domestic political situation, namely it is the most painful for us. it was from within that everything always started.
          And they can also pull Japan into the Far East, and this is a serious opponent. here you’ll have to shake Kuzkin’s mother at full height and be ready to use it!
        5. avia1991
          avia1991 3 December 2015 20: 08 New
          0
          Quote: maxiban
          Good article,

          Is it a good one? ..
          A year ago, Rostislav declared that "we" (Russia) should in no case interfere in the Ukrainian conflict! And now:
          Given the danger of unselfish Western peacekeeping, it is necessary to eliminate the Ukrainian danger militarily in a matter of days, maximum week.
          What kind of analytics is this? Wow: we suddenly thought about the fact that a hostile state has formed at our side! And before that - the glasses were fogged up ??? wassat
          It is possible to eliminate this danger within the specified period - AND NECESSARY! - it was in the spring of 2014! After all, even then it was clear that "partnership" relations with the new khokh. Lordship threaten in the future with big hemorrhoids! .. But today it will not work out just like that. And the PRICE of this victory today will not be comparable ..
          Why, in my opinion, it will not work out, I will not describe, I will say in a nutshell: the counter-terrorist operation and the WAR are different things. It is one thing to "wipe out" the enemy army across the squares, and another thing to pick out "through the bushes" of the Natsik, trying - God forbid! - do not hurt the peace man. And this is exactly how it will look in Ukraine!
      4. Amurets
        Amurets 3 December 2015 13: 49 New
        0
        It happens! But radish horseradish is not sweeter.
        1. attuda
          attuda 3 December 2015 14: 33 New
          +3
          But horseradish radish is not sweeter.


          Here's a video on the topic and finally ...
          Finally.
          War she for war on
          For the superemotional spectacle is still
          for mediaMass, then Bish for them,
          I mean for us ...

          Humanity is enslaved by money
          This fact. What the hell and radish
          Have their own prices
          Ah ... prices have it all!
          And the audience and who on the stage ...


          THE WORLD OF THE UNLESS ...
          What Could He BE? ¿
          14.33 °
      5. veksha50
        veksha50 3 December 2015 13: 53 New
        +2
        Quote: gjv
        And for products of the Votkinsk plant there is a powerful but non-nuclear warhead?



        No. Although theoretically it can be attributed to the discs that are placed during a combat training launch ...

        PS This product is too expensive and exclusive to "stuff" and "bullet" anywhere with ordinary explosives ...
      6. The black
        The black 3 December 2015 13: 56 New
        +2
        Our main weapon is people. For a Russian soldier, the main thing is to know what he is fighting for. Then he is invincible. And all these NATOs are shaky strong only in bulk, but with technology, but they have not enough military spirit.
        1. bulvas
          bulvas 3 December 2015 14: 15 New
          0
          Quote: gjv
          And for products of the Votkinsk plant there is a powerful but non-nuclear warhead?


          There is a non-nuclear charge, which is either father or mother of all bombs

          In theory, shorter missiles should be enough for neighbors


      7. starshina78
        starshina78 3 December 2015 14: 51 New
        +4
        Guys! All this is beautiful. And what is the reality? Suppose we have a powerful military and navy, and we all start to win. How, yes, we'll shower everyone with "Topols" and "Yars". I'm exaggerating. In fact, as if this war was not the last for us. Our opponents also have their own nuclear missiles - we must not forget about this, and whoever presses first will win. At least ten minutes he will feel like a winner. Then he dies. I take a different aspect. The war began. Ours attack or defend, suppose. Weapons and ammunition are supplied from warehouses. It all ends at one moment, and what will the army and the navy fight with? And there will be nothing to fight with. Those factories belonging to the military-industrial complex are the twentieth, or perhaps thirtieth of what was. At the beginning of the war, all factories switched to the production of military products in accordance with a plan drawn up by the Council of Ministers - this is in the USSR (at each factory there was a plan for the production of certain military products, machines and equipment were purchased under this plan, and when the command arrived, the factories were rebuilt). now? Not a single plant privatized with a controlling stake in the plant's employees, and more specifically, from "effective managers", will be able to release anything except what it produced in peacetime (if it did release it and has not yet been demolished for the construction of another shopping center). "Effective managers" have long since cut all the necessary equipment and machine tools that they do not need at the moment into charge, sold, proceeding from cost savings (to pay less taxes). Yes, and factories have become not factories, but workshops. There are not enough engineering and technical personnel, there are not enough working specialties, for which there are at least a dime a dozen "effective managers". One "Votkinsk plant" will not make missiles! There is only one talk in the Government about the restructuring of the economy from a raw material to an industrial one, but in reality the enterprises are being stifled by expensive loans. They do not provide any support to mechanical engineering (and this is the main industry of the country) - one oil industry in mind; no support for machine tool construction - all machines are imported, including Turkish; metallurgy is also sliding downward, and so on in all industries. Before getting involved in the sanctions war by Turkey, for which NATO stands, and most importantly, that it fully and completely supports it, everything must be calculated. It's too late to retreat now. We got involved, now we are waiting for what happens. But war cannot be allowed - we will lose!
        1. SibSlavRus
          SibSlavRus 3 December 2015 15: 25 New
          +3
          Neither you, nor I, nor anyone here on the forum can know for sure and precisely enough how things are in the administrative-state administration of the middle (coordination) level, not that of the highest.
          But judging by the recently adopted (updated) strategic documents (doctrines, strategies (2020) and planning), we (Russia) are trying to force things.

          With confidence we can only say that we are preparing for any development of events.

          The fact that you and I are still in "couch" rather than combat positions proves that "everything is going according to plan."
          Unscheduled activity is palpable.
          Of course, we will defeat everyone! But taking into account past experience.
        2. KOH
          KOH 3 December 2015 15: 59 New
          0
          With this position, you don’t need to calculate anything, anyway
          play ... you can retreat, but not lose ...
        3. The comment was deleted.
        4. bulvas
          bulvas 3 December 2015 16: 48 New
          0
          Quote: starshina78
          And what is the reality? Suppose


          shhh!

          the main thing is that the enemy does not know about it
        5. igorka357
          igorka357 3 December 2015 17: 56 New
          0
          Your extended comment is beautiful, but in fact ... but in fact, how do you know that everything will be so, even if there is a critical situation, I think the country will put the country on military tracks in flight in summer !!!
          1. starshina78
            starshina78 3 December 2015 20: 07 New
            +2
            Will not deliver! I wrote it in a difficult way, but based on facts. And facts, as you know, are stubborn things. If you do not work in a serious production, then yes, you do not know anything. I have been working in factories all my life. Half of my life in metallurgy, the remaining time in mechanical engineering. And I can see from the inside what's going on. How they cut the unique equipment purchased in Soviet times for foreign currency, and not having exhausted its resource before overhaul; metal-cutting machines - for headframe for remelting (some have worked at most for 100 machine-hours). Workshops are being demolished! And in their place, retail space is being built. And all this is done by "effective managers". Once, passing by the thrown out papers from the plant management, I saw the very plans for the transition of the plant in case of war to the production of gun barrels and other artillery weapons. Yes, even such trifles as mobilization plans are not at the plant, and the Military Commissariat does not even ask them. Does anyone have a mob prescription in the "Military card"? Probably not, but whoever has it is the echo of the Soviet era. And before, everyone had a written message: where, at what time he should appear, if the driver, then on what factory car he should come to the "Military enlistment office" or to the collection point. There were evacuation plans for the evacuation of residents of the city. Where the columns are formed, what vehicles are served, the routes of the columns, and so on. All this is fucked up as unnecessary.
        6. PSih2097
          PSih2097 3 December 2015 20: 07 New
          0
          Quote: starshina78
          I take another aspect. The war has begun. Ours attack or defend, suppose. Weapons and ammunition are delivered from warehouses. At one point, it ends, and how will the army and navy fight?

          what is in the warehouses is enough for a couple of such wars ...
          Quote: starshina78
          How, yes, we'll shower everyone with "Topols" and "Yars". I'm exaggerating. In fact, as if this war was not the last for us. Our opponents also have their own nuclear missiles - we must not forget about this, and whoever presses first will win.

          there will be no nuclear war, there will be a conventional war, well, I do not believe that our elite will give such an order to the Strategic Missile Forces.
      8. Denis Obukhov
        Denis Obukhov 3 December 2015 16: 02 New
        0
        Everything is good, it is written, I would also add about the centralization of subversive activities (Maidans, demonstrations, sabotage, the formation of the rudiments of a provisional government) in the rear of Ukraine, Turkey, and it is also possible in all countries of the former CIS (for the future), which should be started today. .. And Erdogan, I think it’s not for nothing that he acts like that, he was most likely told, either you are at war with the Russians, and then we will find you a warm place (like Saakashvili), or it will be like with Hussein or Kadaffi ... "...
      9. mvg
        mvg 3 December 2015 19: 37 New
        0
        And for products of the Votkinsk plant there is a powerful but non-nuclear warhead?

        What's the point? For a few billion rubles to "bring" 1800 kg (let's say, approximately, depends on the range) for 7-10 thousand km?
        Or at the same distance 30-35 tons can deliver the Tu-160. And the accuracy will be more interesting than the KVO of a ballistic missile ... 500 m.
        What, the GDP of a very needed airfield? so tomorrow they’ll already catch her.
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. RUS96
      RUS96 3 December 2015 13: 17 New
      11
      ... served in early childhood laughing In my childhood I ran with a slingshot, and served in the army in my youth wink .
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. cniza
        cniza 3 December 2015 13: 30 New
        +3
        Quote: RUS96
        ... served in early childhood laughing In my childhood I ran with a slingshot, and served in the army in my youth wink .


        I ran after girls in my youth laughing , and served in his youth. wink
        It turns out that we passed the baton to each other. smile
        1. RUS96
          RUS96 3 December 2015 13: 33 New
          +3
          It is truth too good ................
      3. forest park 86
        forest park 86 3 December 2015 15: 57 New
        0
        And I'm an adult (19 years old)
    5. Tor5
      Tor5 3 December 2015 13: 22 New
      +8
      How difficult the task of our President is to keep under control a host of issues that simultaneously require immediate resolution. Good health and a clear mind to him!
    6. Finches
      Finches 3 December 2015 13: 27 New
      51
      You can joke or rattle your weapons on the Internet! I myself do this very often, sometimes completely forgetting that war is not a bickering with an opponent in the web! When you virtually prove that you are pissing on the wall above ...! This is blood and dirt! Death and destruction .... We began to forget that the last global battle of the peoples took away more than 27 million of our people .... Then the most deadly weapon was, in fact, only small arms! No need to step on our rake, history teaches. After all, both the war with Japan and the war with Germany in 1914 were initially perceived by the population as - now we will break everyone! And in 1941, with its famous pre-war installation: "And on the enemy's land we will defeat the enemy. With little blood, a mighty blow ..", we remember well what all this resulted in! And if someone remembers badly or does not know at all, talk to a small fraction of the still living veterans! Or even those soldiers and officers of the Soviet army who went to the real battle in the Panjshir gorges, participants in the storming of Grozny ....!

      The war is easy to start, hard to end!
      1. fif21
        fif21 3 December 2015 14: 03 New
        +3
        Quote: Finches
        The war is easy to start, hard to end!
        And who will ask us? Russia is like a bone in the throat to many people, then we will step on the Faberge, then on the “tomatoes”. Yes, and the "exclusive" nation only tolerates us, a nuclear country, however. While they are trying to put pressure on sanctions, then they will let their idiots off the chain, and then the hunters for bearskin will catch up. One thing reassures, Putin said: "If you see that a fight cannot be avoided, hit it first." hi
        1. Finches
          Finches 3 December 2015 14: 10 New
          +4
          All the same, let me disagree with you! We very often say, remembering the phrase of Alexander Nevsky from the film of the same name: "God is not in power! But in truth!", And so, without challenging the Supreme, nevertheless, I will allow myself to clarify - you need to hit first when, for sure the truth is behind us!
          Yours! hi
          1. fif21
            fif21 3 December 2015 14: 39 New
            0
            Quote: Finches
            nevertheless, let me clarify, you need to beat first, when the truth is definitely ours!
            Everyone has their own truth! The Americans have the truth of a planter (everyone should work for his good) The Russians have their own truth as a free person (we are not slaves!)
            1. Finches
              Finches 3 December 2015 14: 53 New
              +1
              No! The truth is always one, sooner or later, but puts everything in its place!
              1. fif21
                fif21 3 December 2015 15: 28 New
                +2
                Quote: Finches
                No! The truth is always alone

                This contradicts the theory of relativity. I am sure that if you were born in the United States, the "truth" would be different for you. I don't think it's worth continuing this philosophical debate. hi
                1. Finches
                  Finches 3 December 2015 16: 11 New
                  +1
                  I think that there is no special sense now in discussing truth as absolute or relative in the common human understanding, I understand what you mean, but I will only emphasize from the point of view of the Russian language about the concept of "truth" - which is much broader in our country what I, and, I think, you, are putting into this word - a kind of symbiosis of objective truth and moral justice, as the highest ideal for human behavior. Any nationality and race!
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Buchki
        Buchki 3 December 2015 14: 06 New
        0
        Quote: Finches
        No need to step on our rake, history teaches. After all, both the war with Japan and the war with Germany in 1914 were initially perceived by the population as - now we will break everyone! And 1941, with its famous pre-war installation: "And on the enemy's land we will defeat the enemy.


        Yes, you are partially correct, but only with regard to "enemy land". And what kind of Ukraine is the enemy? Until recently, we were one people, were born in the same maternity hospitals, went to the same schools, created interethnic families, and even the "nationality" column was removed from passports as unnecessary, as an obsolete social rudiment.
        So, in the territory occupied by today's Ukraine, there are only a small part of real "enemies", and the bulk of the people want the same thing as we do: to live in peace as before, to have stability in everything, not to have corrupt officials and billionaires in power.
        1. Finches
          Finches 3 December 2015 14: 13 New
          +3
          Dear Visitors ...! I didn’t talk about Ukraine, I don’t perceive it at all, as a state, I spoke about the war as a whole, as a phenomenon! A terrible human tragedy ...! hi
        2. boris-1230
          boris-1230 3 December 2015 14: 39 New
          +3
          Yes, you are partially correct, but only with regard to "enemy land". And what kind of Ukraine is the enemy? Until recently, we were one people, were born in the same maternity hospitals, went to the same schools, created interethnic families, and even the "nationality" column was removed from passports as unnecessary, as an obsolete social rudiment.

          And you, dear in Galicia, or in Lviv on the street with passers-by in Russian, ask for directions - they will explain to you in a mow what maternity hospital you were born in and where you need to go! If not beaten, of course ... negative
      4. viach
        viach 3 December 2015 14: 09 New
        -4
        Do you offer to bend? And what is your purpose?
        1. Finches
          Finches 3 December 2015 14: 17 New
          0
          Dear Visitors 2.0 ..! Please specify to whom you are contacting? hi
      5. OlegLex
        OlegLex 3 December 2015 16: 54 New
        +1
        WAR. War is not only the blood of death and destruction, the couch generals are accustomed to this. Every day they see this from the screens, and not somewhere, but right under the windows, then the balloon exploded, then the barracks fell apart, then the bus collapsed with all the passengers. No war, it concerns everyone, it will be a skating rink for every fate. Because when you sit in a dirty cold trench, your children will go hungry at home, because there will be no one to feed them, and it’s good if they re-introduce the card system, as in the forty-first, and if it’s like with the king, when your children are your problems . The great war, it remained only in the memory of our few surviving veterans, our grandfathers. How much can I tell you about the war, but generally not a damn thing, because local conflict and war are completely different things. And seventy years of peace, this is seventy years of peace. We are now the same as we were before the Crimean War. Then they also lived in the last victory and spit on top of the Turks with the French. And when they hit the war were not ready. And only with unexampled heroism they held the defense.
        1. I am Russian
          I am Russian 3 December 2015 19: 54 New
          +3
          No war, it concerns everyone, it will be a skating rink for every fate. Because when you sit in a dirty cold trench, your children will go hungry at home, because there will be no one to feed them, and it’s good if they re-introduce the card system, as in the forty-first, and if it’s like with the king, when your children are your problems .


          You're right. Here comes the war in Novorossiya. Tank battles, artillery strikes, civilians are dying, militias are dying. After all, look, no one even thinks, the husband, father, son, brother in BATTLE will die, who and what will feed the families of the victims. The militias receive a "salary" go to the store and buy their own food. And it also happens that you have to take provisions with you to the position. The commanders simply tell them that you are getting a salary. No rear !! That's horrible. When it all began, no one could have imagined that in the 21st century, methodical shelling of residential quarters of cities, villages, townships, villages is possible.
          Of course, everything that I have cited is not the same if countries collide in a war.

          And more about Russia's mobreserves. About money. How can Russia wage war if all commercial banks can bring down the entire financial system? Stay tuned for the news if laws are passed on the creation of barriers to the export and "ducking" of capital from Russia. It means a sure sign of the beginning "movement". I could be wrong. hi
        2. The comment was deleted.
    7. Scoun
      Scoun 3 December 2015 13: 30 New
      +1
      Quote: SS68SS
      Calmness and sober calculation is our main weapon.

      it would still not be bad if at hour X when Fashington tries to take advantage of the situation ... (in the event of further escalation of the conflict)
      In the end, Moscow’s plans for Ankara and in Kiev can only guess, but the fact is that the loser along with them Washington will bless any provocation against Russia they are confident and will try to use this factor to their advantage.


      It would be helpful if China rebelled against Japan.
      1. jjj
        jjj 3 December 2015 13: 59 New
        0
        It is clear that the situations in Ukraine and Turkey are coordinated. This is where the "unexpected" offensive of the Taliban in the north of Afghanistan falls. But curious about what will happen in the Northwest? Will they really sacrifice the Baltics, letting the Mujahideen who arrived with refugees through its territory? But with the admission of refugees in the West too clever. This is the destabilization of Europe and the withdrawal of NATO from the game
  2. Gandelman
    Gandelman 3 December 2015 13: 11 New
    -10
    to the assembly point all
    1. gjv
      gjv 3 December 2015 13: 16 New
      10
      All and Dr. Handelman. bully
      1. guzik007
        guzik007 3 December 2015 15: 49 New
        +1
        Gandolman will remain on the couch ... with a keyboard and popcorn
  3. venaya
    venaya 3 December 2015 13: 11 New
    +3
    One of the main reasons (though not the only one) for the Soviet defeats in the summer of 1941 was that the enemy preempted the Soviet command with operational deployment.

    Nothing good will come out without thorough preparation. to be afraid to prepare for battles is not to take part in battle at all, on the contrary, if there is not enough readiness, the likelihood of complex situations increases even more.
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 3 December 2015 13: 14 New
    12
    I read R. Ishchenko with interest and listen to R. Babayan's "The Right to Vote" as an expert. Always calmly, without strain, he puts this or that Ukrainian situation on the shelves. Representatives of the ukrodemocracies are already writhing, and they cannot give out their arguments - one loud verbal diarrhea.
    1. guzik007
      guzik007 3 December 2015 15: 53 New
      +1
      Always calm, without a strain
      ----------------------------------
      This is precisely noticed. And then you turn on Solovyov and after 10-15 minutes I have, in the general balanced person, my nails dig into the sofa, I really want to tear everyone up! Therefore, I no longer allow the nightingale to manipulate my subconscious :)
  5. Altona
    Altona 3 December 2015 13: 15 New
    +9
    I read this article about 4 days ago, subscribed to Ishchenko’s Facebook page, they provide a link to his latest materials, there is also a video channel on Youtube, like Ishchenko’s video archive is called, I won’t lie. But on the video channel there are cuts from the programs of Babayan and Solovyov.

    Now the message of the President of the Federal Assembly has sounded, it is said that "the Turks will not get off with tomatoes", Ukraine apparently too, but it announces embargoes to itself ...
    1. Black Colonel
      Black Colonel 3 December 2015 17: 41 New
      0
      "Turks won't get off with tomatoes"
      Settling expression!
  6. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 3 December 2015 13: 16 New
    +3
    For this, we are holding the government of national reconstruction of Ukraine in our country. And for Turkey, we don’t need it at all! Therefore, as she positions herself, she will receive! NATO will only help quietly. And in the open, for the sake of Turkey and Ukraine, they will not part with their lives and peoples. Because we have more than 1500 nuclear weapons. Bluffing is on their part ....
    1. 34 region
      34 region 3 December 2015 13: 46 New
      16
      Nuclear charges? In the 90s we also had nuclear charges, but the country did not become. Today, war is being waged in a different way. Banks are aviation, and money is bombs. This aircraft in the 90s intensively bombed our command posts. Command under these attacks fell. Investors are tanks. Then the tank columns moved to the expanses of our country, spreading our production. Different NGOs are infantry fighting against the population. This is how modern wars go. What can we oppose? Our actions?
      1. sisa29
        sisa29 3 December 2015 14: 26 New
        +1
        it’s strange why you have put cons, a very beautiful argument.
  7. oleg46
    oleg46 3 December 2015 13: 19 New
    +5
    We will wait and see what is there and how. In principle, it is presented convincingly (for me). I remembered, however, the proverb: "if you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans." wink
    1. 34 region
      34 region 3 December 2015 13: 51 New
      +3
      Plans then maybe him. But it is not he who decides, but other people. And they don’t voice their plans here. Therefore, we can only talk about personal plans. Here put forward just a version of the development of events. In my version, the attack will be from the outskirts and Turkey. Maybe spirits are pulled up from the third party. Plus the hysteria of the Western media.
      1. oleg46
        oleg46 3 December 2015 16: 06 New
        0
        Quote: Region 34
        Plans then maybe him. But it’s not he who decides, but other people

        The meaning of the saying is not to unnecessarily rely only on one’s own, only human reason in the formation of any decisions, plans, actions, etc. Any person needs to ask, prayer, petition to the Higher Mind (God) in order to avoid a fatal error (usually of a strategic nature; a person can more or less overcome tactical errors to a certain extent independently) when realizing his projects in real life. hi
  8. afdjhbn67
    afdjhbn67 3 December 2015 13: 19 New
    +6
    Tonally in the media has changed .. it seems the course has been taken for war ???
    1. veksha50
      veksha50 3 December 2015 13: 57 New
      +2
      Quote: afdjhbn67
      The tone in the media has changed .. it seems the course to war is taken ???


      If taken, it’s not us ... They want this ...

      And the war is not only on the verge, it is already on ...
      1. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 3 December 2015 14: 18 New
        0
        Quote: veksha50
        If taken, it’s not us ... They want this ...

        It doesn't get any easier from this - sometimes it seems that both sides want a little war.
        Forelocks will always crack at lackeys ..
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. The comment was deleted.
      4. NEXUS
        NEXUS 3 December 2015 14: 39 New
        +1
        Quote: veksha50
        And the war is not only on the verge, it is already on ...

        Today, the very edge of this war is in the internet and in the media. I'm talking about inform war. There is no way for us to lose in this war, otherwise the cliche "axis of evil" will hang like a yoke on the neck of Russia and the whole world will believe that we are the same "axis of evil." And you can't fight with the whole world. And therefore, even here, on this site, a useful and necessary thing is being done - counteracting the idiology of the foe.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  9. Angryvinny
    Angryvinny 3 December 2015 13: 19 New
    +3
    Isn’t this the same Mr. Ishchenko who screamed that troops should not be brought into Ukraine in any case? And this is when Ukraine had neither the army, nor even the national battalions? And all the Russian-speaking areas were just waiting for our guys?
    And this m ... b now writes:

    The armed forces can only quickly defeat the army. Further, without prejudging the results of the final political settlement, it is necessary to create an administration (it is possible in the form of several connected in a weak confederation of people's republics, it is possible in the form of a single central interim government, in the form of several unrelated regional administrations). It is not advisable to have there only an occupational Russian administration, since the Vienna and Geneva conventions prescribe that the occupying state is responsible for the population of the occupied territory, and this is such a trap that it is easier to fight immediately with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and half of Europe than to contain one Ukraine.
    1. I am Russian
      I am Russian 3 December 2015 19: 58 New
      +1
      Quote: AngryVinny
      Isn’t this the same Mr. Ishchenko who screamed that troops should not be brought into Ukraine in any case? And this is when Ukraine had neither the army, nor even the national battalions? And all the Russian-speaking areas were just waiting for our guys?
      And this m ... b now writes:

      The armed forces can only quickly defeat the army. Further, without prejudging the results of the final political settlement, it is necessary to create an administration (it is possible in the form of several connected in a weak confederation of people's republics, it is possible in the form of a single central interim government, in the form of several unrelated regional administrations). It is not advisable to have there only an occupational Russian administration, since the Vienna and Geneva conventions prescribe that the occupying state is responsible for the population of the occupied territory, and this is such a trap that it is easier to fight immediately with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and half of Europe than to contain one Ukraine.


      She is the most. yes
    2. The comment was deleted.
  10. Tatarus
    Tatarus 3 December 2015 13: 19 New
    0
    Quote: SS68SS
    allocate troops and cut tasks


    Select tasks and slice troops (enemy)
  11. Svarog5570
    Svarog5570 3 December 2015 13: 21 New
    +3
    Want peace, get ready for war. In light of recent events, everything goes to this.
  12. An64
    An64 3 December 2015 13: 22 New
    +5
    When in early childhood I served in the military service in the Strategic Rocket Forces of the USSR ...
    At the same time, the regiment managed to launch its missiles anyway ...

    Did you write a letter to the girl "from a burning tank"? Or how he pressed the buttons to launch nuclear missiles?
    In any case, writing explicit bullshit is not worth it. This is me about launches from anywhere, and about the degrees of combat readiness.
    Those who know will laugh, but those who do not know will not know even more.
    1. sa-zz
      sa-zz 3 December 2015 13: 56 New
      0
      Quote: An64
      This is me about launches from any point, and about the degrees of combat readiness.
      He served in another branch of the army, but as the saying goes, "Live and learn."
      Quote: An64
      Those who know will laugh, but those who do not know will not know even more.

      Can enlighten the unknowing?
    2. SCHNIFER
      SCHNIFER 3 December 2015 13: 58 New
      0
      Duc like the author immediately makes a reservation at the very beginning of the article - in early childhood he dragged an urgent ... the author did not say the same - in distant childhood he finished Serpukhov ...
    3. Rus2012
      Rus2012 3 December 2015 14: 04 New
      0
      Quote: An64
      This is me about launches from any point, and about the degrees of combat readiness.

      If you write "start from any prepared point" / where the "monolith" lay - will it suit?
      As for the "degrees" - I myself do not remember exactly, except for - "constant", "increased", "full" and
      launches "immediately with constant / increased / full BG" and at the appointed time "H" ...
  13. tsvetkov1274
    tsvetkov1274 3 December 2015 13: 22 New
    0
    soldier The warrior went looking
    1. Shark Lover
      Shark Lover 3 December 2015 13: 52 New
      +2
      51 years old. Well, he started half a year ago, continued to go to the gym after the break and make trekking crossings (6 km per day), and he rode the mountains for the last time (85-87). A week ago, all by the way ?????, we were invited to the shooting range (local fireball)))), they gave us a chance to recover from a PC-normal. Why all this (Sixth sense?
      1. guzik007
        guzik007 3 December 2015 16: 06 New
        0
        When I'm in my distant childhood ...
        -------------------------------- You know, the author, I somehow did not have time as a child, but in my youth, being a platoon commander of a pontoon-ferry company, he blocked the norm for advancing from the deployment area to the Elbe bank five to six times. I remember, the political officer, after the 4th march, called me aside and said: you, he says, are already about ... numb , he says, look how your eagles will rush through the dam on KRAZ! Well, we stand, well, we look ... And really, across the dam, obliquely, my eagles fly on three wheels on one side with a roll from 25-30 degrees! Well! You've seen! yells the political officer. You dare to go to such and such a mother! Ah! "I understand!" - I answer him, I think, while you are walking along the road, it’s normal, but as you fly into the dam, so extraordinary ease of control of a 20-ton colossus!
        Come on ... the greyhound Tatar was the response of the captain.

        So, about mobility, the author is right-mobility-the key to survival and the achievement of the task. :-)
  14. NDA
    NDA 3 December 2015 13: 24 New
    +1
    Thanks to the author, he outlined the idea from the heart. In my opinion, you can add the Baltic states to the text. On Saturday, we literally discussed this topic with the guys over glasses of tea ...
  15. iouris
    iouris 3 December 2015 13: 25 New
    +3
    Oligarchic structures in any country are oriented towards "controlled chaos" and national-fascism. Ukraine made its choice in 1654. The formation of an "adequate system of government" for the country must begin with the RF. The main thing to remember is that "cadres decide everything," therefore, management cadres should be formed in a priority mode. For this there are the LPR and the DPR.
  16. Bashibuzuk
    Bashibuzuk 3 December 2015 13: 30 New
    +5
    But what kind of circus suit all these figures?
    Either in no case should troops be sent to Ukraine, then, it turns out, it is necessary to enter "up to the tonsils," and without identification marks.
    This, you see, in order for the EU to rise, they say, some robbers are tearing Ukraine. Well, we need to tear off a piece.
    It turns out that Turkey is to blame. And without Turkey, there is still no need to introduce it.
    Well, now Turkey is blown away, suppose. Well, they will arrange a military coup there. Suppose.
    So any other factor will instantly appear - Montenegro will join NATO, Yemeni rebels will overwhelm an American plane, a terrorist will blow up Cameron - and where should we send anyone further? Without identification marks.
    In order not to feed the Ukrainians.
    .
    And before, I didn’t like Rostislav’s analysis.
    And this opus - like a puddle.
    Less analysis.
    .
    Just listened to the speech of Putin V.V.
    And then, much more informative.
    And more definitely.
  17. Alex66
    Alex66 3 December 2015 13: 34 New
    +3
    I am alarmed by the negative reviews of past and past service, only one spoke positively about the service, the remaining 7-8 believe that they spent time in vain. A lot of negativity from 32 military camps of Yekaterinburg. Who will fight? Contractors?
    1. Alexanast
      Alexanast 3 December 2015 15: 47 New
      +7
      So in order to feel the love of the Motherland, you need to serve for more than 1 year. Then, reviews about the service will be different.
      1. Andrew
        Andrew 3 December 2015 18: 49 New
        0
        No ... Wrong priorities ...
      2. Alex66
        Alex66 4 December 2015 10: 36 New
        0
        You can not do anything for 2 and 3 years either, in my opinion, exams should be taken for draftees, and the officer fails to pass the exam, the rank does not get or even loses.
  18. Algetxnumx
    Algetxnumx 3 December 2015 13: 37 New
    +4
    Quote: afdjhbn67
    Tonally in the media has changed .. it seems the course has been taken for war ???

    Yes, one gets the impression that Putin ran over the Turks in his message, Mom don’t worry. Let's see, as they say, that the Ottomans will answer, everything depends on them now, the ball is on their side, they will trample them with a drill (if the smoked one gives the go-ahead) , then everything, "sidora" on the shoulder and in the military registration and enlistment office. There will be "bazaars" to breed, it means we still have some fun. And to the "horses" clearly explain that any jump from their side and that's it, the next Minsk will be already kueve, through the lion.
    1. Bolhevik
      Bolhevik 3 December 2015 14: 32 New
      0
      It should be to the president that awareness of their true intentions allows such open, deplamatic throws. I think at 13 o’clock in Turkey, some people watched television with subtitles and stamped their feet heavily. The atmosphere is poking.
  19. AlexTires
    AlexTires 3 December 2015 13: 40 New
    +1
    Army units are collapsing and deploying, not collapsing and deploying. But this is if to be completely meticulous. In general, of course, there is something to ponder ...
  20. Shark Lover
    Shark Lover 3 December 2015 13: 41 New
    -3
    The author clearly outlined further actions to control Ukraine, in the case of a (theoretical) start of a direct armed conflict. And with Turkey, what? After May 9 (theoretically?) Will they be able to manage independently or will representatives of the Russian president be appointed again? I’m not to the fact that we need it, but what if it comes back?
  21. chikenous59
    chikenous59 3 December 2015 13: 44 New
    +6
    I want to note that a lot of articles-forecasts by R. Ishchenko do not come true! Most.
    1. avva2012
      avva2012 3 December 2015 14: 50 New
      0
      Wang, however, is a jailer!
  22. capitosha1rang
    capitosha1rang 3 December 2015 13: 44 New
    +4
    And again, about mine.
    Saudi Arabia, Qatar, due to which they do not just live - live on the body of our beautiful planet?
    Oil!!!
    Its production (we have nothing to do with it), transportation (here it is - the weakest link. Tanker 30-50 thousand tons, burnt-down on the ground in the Suez Canal), unloading in Rotterdam (!) With "violation of the Fire Safety Rules" - and a fire for half of Europe.
    Here are the means of modern combat and, unlike mass sorties and bombings (if they are not cover operations), they will cost much less.
    By the way, between us boys, Rotterdam was already burning in the 70 of the last century.
    Workout, however!
  23. newcomer
    newcomer 3 December 2015 13: 47 New
    +4
    I agree with almost everything. only one. our retired generals insist: hit the thao at the Turkish bases and airdromes (away from the grouping on the border with the sar), take the Bosphorus. in the west to give the go-ahead to the militia. enough forces to capture. and for the pursuit of them will go all the Russian Federation
    1. sisa29
      sisa29 3 December 2015 14: 45 New
      +1
      Perhaps the application of tiao is a very tough measure, but I think the first reaction of the whole world is shock, stupor. Then urgent flights for "consultations" in the United States of the leaders of the formidable countries of the Baltic states, Poland, ukaraini ... to hide. The US is holding a pause as it is scary for the Turks to get the Nuclear Lyuly themselves. And Europe is beginning to open its eyes, to understand that everything is farther or put up or really the end, all without options and seriously. As a result, in a few weeks everyone will come to an agreement, and in a year another and NATO will quietly dissolve into the meaningless.
  24. Gunther
    Gunther 3 December 2015 13: 53 New
    -1
    A timely, necessary article, only the author forgot about Transnistria.
    1. xorgi
      xorgi 3 December 2015 16: 27 New
      0
      more about the Baltic States and Japan
  25. Algetxnumx
    Algetxnumx 3 December 2015 13: 53 New
    +1
    Quote: capitosha1rang
    sat on the ground in the Suez Canal),

    This is certainly possible, but if the Strait of Hormuz is "sealed", this is the topic, the topic, especially there is Emenah Buza and Iran is nearby.
  26. Bjorn
    Bjorn 3 December 2015 13: 57 New
    -1
    Very interesting article. I noted for myself the author, I will review his publications.
    If possible, my request to the author to write the second part.
    There is a lot about Ukraine in this material, but I would like to read the analytical calculations about what will happen if Turkey closes the Bosphorus. The supply of our Syrian group, for example, if there are millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran, will block supplies through Iran. How will the replenishment, weapons and ammunition be delivered to Armenia, where, most likely, there will also be a front. And anyway, if this all happens, then it might be better not to let America stand by and rub its hands? Can somehow try to, as in the old days, some kind of thread a country such as Japan (it is clear that not Japan itself, but something there next to it) grappled with it?
  27. Al_oriso
    Al_oriso 3 December 2015 13: 59 New
    -1
    One feels that Putin has prepared for an armed conflict. The Turkish top touched hard.
    Who is the first on us?
  28. vkl-47
    vkl-47 3 December 2015 13: 59 New
    0
    Quote: cniza
    Quote: RUS96
    ... served in early childhood laughing In my childhood I ran with a slingshot, and served in the army in my youth wink .


    I ran after girls in my youth laughing , and served in his youth. wink
    It turns out that we passed the baton to each other. smile

    I'm running for the girls now. Although not young
  29. Denis Skiff
    Denis Skiff 3 December 2015 13: 59 New
    +3
    Putin called the “ruling clique” of Turkey devoid of reason by Allah
    All.
  30. viach
    viach 3 December 2015 14: 03 New
    0
    The article is very logical. The author is convincing. It seems that it is worth close attention. I would not like the worst.
  31. Denis81
    Denis81 3 December 2015 14: 06 New
    +2
    “Let me remind you that one of the main reasons (albeit not the only one) of the Soviet defeats in the summer of 1941 was that the enemy preempted the Soviet command with operational deployment. The result was lost border battles, the loss of thousands of pieces of equipment (not inferior to the German in quality and superior in quantity ), as well as practically the entire cadre of the Red Army and the retreat thousands of kilometers deep into the territory. " I disagree. Germany was ahead of us both in the concentration of forces on the direction of the main attacks and in strategic deployment: the main forces of the Wehrmacht defeated the armies of the 2nd echelon in July-August. That's when we lost our regular army. There were few new weapons - in the Western Military District, in mechanized corps instead of 400 t-34s and kVs, 90-100 battleships each and 10-12 new ones, without run-in crews. We were taken by surprise, on the transition path. Now the situation is similar. Renewal of the army, reorganization of industry, a hostile environment (again the same ears stick out as then). Ukraine-Poland 38-39. The question is who is the new Hitler.
  32. Vladimir71
    Vladimir71 3 December 2015 14: 08 New
    0
    War is blood, dirt and grief, but sometimes we are simply left with no choice. And if he is not left, you need to be ready for this and act with the "appanets" as tough as possible, I think no one else wants to get a knife in the back ...
  33. chikenous59
    chikenous59 3 December 2015 14: 10 New
    +1
    War is the last thing. It is necessary to take maximum time, develop the economy, re-equip the army, you look before the war and the matter does not reach.
  34. askort154
    askort154 3 December 2015 14: 11 New
    +9
    If tomorrow is war? (God forbid).
    How will the CSTO members behave? I'm afraid the same as now.
    Russia, the main member of this organization, was struck sneakily in the back, and so what?
    Our "friends in arms" did not raise a single eyebrow.
    The heads of these states, stocked up with popcorn, sitting at the TV screen, and are watching with interest,
    how it all ends. If only one of them mumbled, either condemning towards the vile behavior of Turkey or Ukraine. But I am sure that they will immediately fall at the feet of Russia when one of them pecks a fried rooster. This is such collective security.
  35. Hydrograph
    Hydrograph 3 December 2015 14: 18 New
    -1
    The heads of this hydra (Turkey, Ukraine) make no sense to chop, new ones will grow. It is necessary to beat in the heart - the USA and England, and then again the puppeteers will sit out over the seas. And do not take prisoners.
  36. Samen
    Samen 3 December 2015 14: 26 New
    -1
    Given the danger of unselfish Western peacekeeping, it is necessary to eliminate the Ukrainian danger militarily in a matter of days, a maximum of a week. Roughly speaking, it is not so important what identification marks will be on the soldiers who entered Lviv (even if these signs do not exist at all - what do you take from the militias). The main thing is that they enter there.

    A very good review and analytical article! And, the fragment quoted by me, was especially pleasant.
    Actually, "little green men" are an invention of the 21st century. Guerrillas "on the contrary" ...
  37. figter
    figter 3 December 2015 14: 31 New
    +2

    Since there is the experience of Donbass (management through local representatives, of which slowly, by trial and error, a new loyal, adequate to the tasks and able to respond to rapidly changing environment is formed), it is easiest to transfer it to the whole of Ukraine.
    The sharp increase in geopolitical tasks requires an informal political centralization of the control of the territories under its control. Approximately, they should be managed according to the format of the federal district. And this scheme should be worked out right now on the experience of the two republics, since tomorrow the political headquarters will have to be deployed from the wheels, in an undeveloped structure and in an unsecured format.

    During the period of the declaration of war and in the course of hostilities in individual territories, all military and political control passes to the Commanders of Military Districts - the Commander of strategic directions. In this matter, the author has already been thought and decided. The district headquarters is a resource-based format and it will cope with any managerial tasks assigned to it. Therefore, it is not necessary for the author to reinvent the wheel. Only this all happens in wartime, but so far Russia has not declared wars to any Ukraine and treats all "revolutionary" actions in a neighboring state with distant sympathy.
    Until now, unity of command in the Donbass was ensured by the fact that the various Russian departments that oversaw the processes taking place there, through their leaders, locked themselves on to the president. Putin received reports along the political vertical, security vertical, intelligence vertical, army vertical, EMERCOM vertical, as well as from the Foreign Ministry, etc. and, if necessary, coordinated their actions.

    Who knows what and who reports to someone. What relation, at least officially, does the Russian President have to the internal armed conflict in Ukraine? Why does the author of the article think it over and expose it as a fact. About any participation of the Russian Federation in the management of the Donetsk-Lugansk region in any official government sources do not say. These territories are not part of Russia, we have not occupied them. The newly formed state-territorial entities are independent in their decisions.
    When in the Donbass, Syria (as well as in any other place where a new crisis will arise with Russian participation), the coordination of actions of different departments will decrease by one level (from the presidential one). If you give an example, it is something like the representatives of the Headquarters on the fronts of the Great Patriotic War. They coordinated the actions of several fronts involved in the conception of parallel operations, and their actions were already coordinated by the Supreme Commander.

    Again the same thing. What does the President of Russia have to do with the management of another state - Ukraine?
    Not an article, but some kind of provocation to distort facts.
  38. avva2012
    avva2012 3 December 2015 14: 33 New
    +6
    The sharp increase in geopolitical tasks requires an informal political centralization of the control of the territories under its control. Approximately, they should be managed according to the format of the federal district. And this scheme should be worked out right now on the experience of the two republics, since tomorrow the political headquarters will have to be deployed from the wheels, in an undeveloped structure and in an unsecured format.
    I read the article. Yes...
    The first part is still so-so. Any "reviewer" has the right to analysis and synthesis. Although it is made from the media accessible to the "observer". At the expense of the second half. Listen to what needs to be done. Get up from the monitor. Find acute drug addiction in the directory. Wait for the doctor. Sleep for about twelve hours. Go to the mirror. Take a good look at yourself. Ask the question: "Well, who am I to give recommendations to the General Staff of the Russian Federation?" Analyze and synthesize. You can run for a bottle.
  39. Captain green
    Captain green 3 December 2015 14: 37 New
    +3
    Quote: avva2012
    The sharp increase in geopolitical tasks requires an informal political centralization of the control of the territories under its control. Approximately, they should be managed according to the format of the federal district. And this scheme should be worked out right now on the experience of the two republics, since tomorrow the political headquarters will have to be deployed from the wheels, in an undeveloped structure and in an unsecured format.
    I read the article. Yes...
    The first part is still so-so. Any "reviewer" has the right to analysis and synthesis. Although it is made from the media accessible to the "observer". At the expense of the second half. Listen to what needs to be done. Get up from the monitor. Find acute drug addiction in the directory. Wait for the doctor. Sleep for about twelve hours. Go to the mirror. Take a good look at yourself. Ask the question: "Well, who am I to give recommendations to the General Staff of the Russian Federation?" Analyze and synthesize. You can run for a bottle.

    good
  40. astronom1973n
    astronom1973n 3 December 2015 14: 43 New
    -1
    Quote: Gandelman
    to the assembly point all

    The task will be set (the agenda is received) do not even doubt it!
    All the assigned reserve troops will be sure!
    And then we'll figure it out.
  41. Luga
    Luga 3 December 2015 14: 49 New
    +1
    Good article, I liked it. I love when the author knows how to "mix, but not shake up". A fairly coherent picture is obtained.

    I read it and reread it again. Tell me, members of the forum, did I understand correctly that, according to the author, war (local, of course) is inevitable? That is, if the author is asked whether there will be a war, he will unequivocally answer "yes", and if asked whether it can be avoided, he will unequivocally answer "no", so what? Or did it seem to me alone?

    I will express my opinion. Regarding the USA-NATO-Turkey-Ukraine-Donbass-Russia (+ Moldova-Transnistria-Russia) club, I see the perspective a little differently.

    1. No one will touch Transnistria. Russian units are housed in it, a direct attack on them will be clearly regarded as a declaration of war (no one will allow our president to be torn to pieces by the president), the aggressor will not support the aggressor’s geyropa (for some reason, this is no laughing matter), and then of Russia’s side, distribution of serious lyuli will begin, and in that region there is no one who could load them and not lie down.

    2. Ukraine as a state is "dead", the president does not control anything, does not command anyone. Those organized forces that are present there are only capable of minor dirty tricks, such as blowing up the support and not letting it be repaired. They are not capable of creating anything and the level of their organization is very far from what is required for even waging a civil war. They simply will not be able to assemble, arm, and deliver to Donbass a sufficient number of those who want to lay down their little heads, of which, as you know, each of them has no more than one (who has). Shooting a peaceful city is the only thing they can do.

    3. Turkey. Erdogan's problems are higher than the roof, I personally would not want to be in his place. And I really don't understand how he is going to get out. Probably, doing what he did, he counted on some pathological passivity on the part of the GDP, or vice versa, on hysteria. Neither happened. Economic measures, all these sanctions of ours, etc., will inevitably affect his already not very high popularity, the information company around the world about the tricks with the DAIShaks involved in personal, please note, selfish interests, will shake, even if insignificantly, Turkey's position in gayrope. The bombing will continue, Assad will gradually squeeze the lice-bearded ones to the border, they will spread all over the world, but mainly to Libya, and from there to Geyrop. The only thing that is not clear is whether anyone will play the Kurdish card in this party. Iran may also confuse the alignment if it actively joins the game, but so far there seem to be no prerequisites for this. Elections will be held in Syria, Assad will win them for a clear advantage, the "world community" will spoil the air about this, everything will be as it was, in short. The obvious gain will be only for the Daeshaks, who, apparently, will instigate power in Libya and, possibly, in Iraq. Erdogan will serve his term and leave for the mattress to write his memoirs.

    This is how it is.
  42. Bjorn
    Bjorn 3 December 2015 15: 38 New
    +2
    Everything was shy here on the forum to ask how to remove this gloomy Estonian flag, went in PM and found it) I really was born in the USSR, and still remained his citizen, that is, officially stateless, and in my soul a citizen of the Union.
    That slapped me my first minus. Why did I say that?
    What, isn’t the problem of enclaves? Isn’t Transnistria surrounded by enemies? Is there not Armenia, which is really the only one of the CSTO that will fight with Turkey, if necessary, together with Russia, and is it also not an enclave? A piece of the border with Iran seems to be there.
    And don't all international treaties go to hell? What is impossible to close the straits? Yes, stop it.
    Or maybe the whole point is that you can’t do everything in half? Maybe it was not necessary to stop at the border of South Ossetia, but to break through the land corridor to Armenia, especially since there is a whole region in Georgia that is Armenian. Maybe Odessa couldn’t be left to the enemy, was it built under Catherine the Great too? And there would have been no problem of Transnistria.
  43. vandarus
    vandarus 3 December 2015 15: 42 New
    +2
    The fact that the conflict with NATO is brewing is becoming increasingly apparent. Well, the main striking force of NATO-USA cannot fail to try to overcome its internal economic problems due to a new global shock. The only question remains is whether this will be a new world war or whether the matter will be limited to a local armed conflict of high intensity. Moreover, in both cases, the use of nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons is in doubt because of the realization that the large-scale use of nuclear weapons will cause a planetary catastrophe. Only when the conflict brings one of the parties to the brink of military defeat, is it possible that tactical nuclear weapons can be used as a deterrent (for example, a demonstration strike in the enemy’s water area) and a demonstration of intent to use nuclear weapons to defeat.
    An unlikely scenario in ideal execution (according to NATO strategists): If we talk about the war in the form for which the armed forces of the USSR were preparing, then from the side of NATO (USA) a massive attack suggests itself with air destruction (KR, hypersonic strike systems, stealth bombers type B-2) at the command and control centers, strategic nuclear forces bases, SA aerodromes, air defense forces and equipment. In the first wave, the United States is able to release up to 3 Tomahawks in conventional equipment. Further additional exploration and a new strike to 000 Tomahawks. In the second echelon, the F-2 and F-000 are finished off by fluttering air defense systems. A logical continuation should be the ground operation and occupation, but ... Russia is in question, and here the scenario begins to slip. air strikes cannot be defeated in the war, and NATO’s ground operation will not be pulled.
    High-intensity local conflict is more likely in my opinion. And it is unlikely that this will be the Middle East because we will have serious problems with logistics, we simply will not be allowed to deploy troops. But escalation in Ukraine should be expected. The scenario is the same as in a global conflict, but the theater of operations will be limited, for example, to the territory of Ukraine.
    The US aims to inflict military-political defeat on our country and, under the guise of a conflict, solve its internal economic and political problems. It remains to be hoped that everything that I have fantasized here so fantasy will remain.
  44. potalevl
    potalevl 3 December 2015 15: 47 New
    0
    In the Donbass, the truce is over. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasing the grouping in the so-called ATO zone, so I think that during the New Year holidays the final act of the play will begin on the stage of this theater. Behind the scenes, most likely there will be new characters from the NATO group (Poland, Romania, Hungary) in order to regain once lost territories. Therefore, I think the DNI / LNR army will not hoist the Banner of Victory over the Lviv Oblast Administration, but will confine itself to the liberation of the southern regions and access to the border with Transnistria through the territory adjacent to the Azov-Black Sea basin and the liberation of the northern territories and access to the border at the junction of the three former Soviet republics. The fate of the rest of the country 404
    I think they will be allowed to decide the population of this territory by proposing two options: to join the New Russia or to become a protectorate.
    As for the theater of war in Syria, I think Turkey, as an accomplice to terrorism, may suffer the fate of the country 404. The south-east, the so-called Kurdistan, will be transformed into an independent state, part of the territory that once belonged to Russia will be given to Armenia, and Istanbul to the Greeks if they behave well . Something like that.
  45. Jozhkin Cat
    Jozhkin Cat 3 December 2015 15: 51 New
    0
    If you look in larger pieces then ..
    Georgia - raked normally. Usa is sad.
    Ukraine - the result was achieved by 30 percent. They do not want to fight. the usa is sad.
    Turkey -?
    The United States will not fit 90% with military force for it, because a completely different booze will go. They will pay attention that the Turks themselves shot down the plane, they did not attack them. So, initially the NATO bloc was out of business.
  46. Sidel45
    Sidel45 3 December 2015 16: 05 New
    +1
    "When, in my distant childhood, I served conscript service in the Strategic Missile Forces of the USSR ..." - this as the son of a regiment or what? Or, according to the author, 18 years is still childhood? Although, judging by it, this is so. In our Fatherland, in contrast, for example, from the same Germany, children are conscripted to serve in the army. Moreover, mama's. Is it not for this reason that military service in the army was reduced to one year, that is, it was turned into a one-year excursion, since it is impossible to make a real specialist soldier out of a mama's son in a year. And "hazing", by the way, remained as it was. The only difference is that one who has served for about a year is already considered a "grandfather", and not a salaga, as before. And this, once again by the way, unequivocally suggests that it is necessary to begin to fight against bullying not in the army, but in the school, where it appears.
  47. ioann1
    ioann1 3 December 2015 16: 10 New
    0


    Maybe someone does not agree with Geronda Joseph, but all his previous prophecies came true.
    An hour after his blessed death, he smiled.
  48. Andrew
    Andrew 3 December 2015 17: 07 New
    +1
    When in early childhood I served in the military service in the Strategic Rocket Forces of the USSR, --You didn’t mess up anything? I don’t remember children being called up to the Strategic Rocket Forces ... belay
  49. Andrew
    Andrew 3 December 2015 17: 11 New
    0
    "technology (not inferior to the German in quality and superior in quantity" - in terms of quantity, yes, but you got excited about the quality, especially about tanks and aviation ...
    1. Egen
      Egen 4 December 2015 05: 51 New
      0
      Quote: Andrew
      about the quantity, yes, but you got excited about the quality, especially about tanks and aircraft ...

      the quality can be different ... one at the factory acceptance, the simpler the more reliable the construction :), and during operation it is a maintenance complex in ... well, at least technical :) readiness - there is such a set of readiness, but it depends already from spare parts and deliveries and their promptness and machine tools and people ... and there are also to-you use, operation, etc. - And this is already dancing from the readiness of how people cook their heads to use.
      For example, in our readiness transport department, individual days reach up to 0,96, but alas, the average monthly price is 0,7-0,8. And the set of use on certain days falls only to 0,56 :(
    2. The comment was deleted.
  50. Andrew
    Andrew 3 December 2015 17: 18 New
    0
    "also practically the entire cadre of the Red Army and retreat thousands of kilometers deep into the territory." what how much is this? 99%? please follow every word you write ...