Military Review

Aggravating innovations

29
Scientific and technological progress forms threats that can put humanity on the brink of extinction.


In recent years, such a concept has emerged as convergent technologies, which include the NBIC (nano-, bio-, info- and cognitive), designed to fundamentally improve both the environment and man himself. The convergence of these technologies is due to the highest degree of interdependence and an increase in their efficiency in conjugate, interrelated application. They include biomedicine and genetic engineering, psychophysical effects, computing and communication tools, cognitive neuroscience.

Convergent technologies provide the emergence of such an abundance of innovations, which in the form of some comprehensively tested, tested (including safety for humans and the environment) and prepared for mass production of samples, not even an economically and technologically developed country can do.

Expected surprises

Convergent technologies are capable of delivering indisputable advantages to consumer products based on them. This fact marks the beginning of a new technological race that carries many dangers.

“The horizon is already close, beyond which the formation of armament systems for the new-look armies on the basis of the currently existing technologies and technical means will become a meaningless exercise”
They are not only about the possibility of creating a super destructive weapons and new types of microorganisms hostile to humans, constructed by bioengineering methods, in catastrophic destruction of habitat by nanotechnology products, in pollution of the communicative space of modern civilization with information and cybernetic products ... Now only one computer villain or genius is able to provide the planet with nuclear Armageddon.

The mastery of mankind by a set of modern advanced technologies, which multiply its capabilities, naturally and inevitably causes the most significant changes in the life of society, including its material condition, safety, moral and ethical, moral relations with other individuals and societies as a whole.

The problem of further technological development may be the fact that the distinction between industrial, household and military tools will be practically blurred. At the same time, its accessibility to any state, social groups, organizations, and even individuals becomes more and more with the increase in the communication of societies. The boundary between the state of war and peace is being erased. An assessment of the opportunities offered by NBIC technologies shows that armed violence will increasingly become secondary, other forms and methods of hostile influences on the state, society and the individual will emerge. The problem of controlling the spread and application of new technologies is becoming akin to arms control, but because of their specifics, it is much more complicated.

The greatest influence of convergent technologies is expected in the field of biology, primarily in medicine, since it most clearly affects the very basis of the existence of living matter. Convergent technologies, providing access to the molecular dimensional level of the physical world and its endowment with artificial intelligence, provide tremendous opportunities for changing the “man-made shell” of civilization. But at the same time they make a distinction between living and nonliving very unsteady.

Aggravating innovations


Biotechnology is able to provide the widest use of living organisms, their systems or waste products to solve technological problems and create new creatures with the necessary properties.

The most radical application of nanotechnology in medicine will be a qualitatively new level of diagnostics and treatment, the creation of molecular nanobots that can destroy infections and cancers, repair damaged DNA, tissues and organs, duplicate whole life support systems of the body and even change its properties.

The list of threats posed by convergent technologies in this field of medicine is very obvious, because almost every achievement can be turned to harm people and society. Instead of destroying infections with the help of nanorobots — cellular construction of known and new bacteria and viruses, damage and destruction of vital organs and areas of the human body, individual and mass neuroprogramming, blocking the reproductive functions of members of a certain nation or race — the list can be very long. The newest biotechnologies create tremendous opportunities for intervention and inevitably face the moral question: to what extent can intrusion into natural processes be allowed, will this activity lead to the appearance of viruses or even higher organisms against which humanity and the existing ecosystem will be powerless?

Convergent technologies in the energy sector will be embodied primarily in alternative sources. Nanotechnology can improve the efficiency of the refining industry and at the same time lead to a sharp decrease in the importance of this industry. The distribution of low-cost solar cells will begin the process of forming a new, more efficient, environmentally friendly and more decentralized energy management.

In recent decades, the theory of the information society has been actively developed, historical phase of the possible evolutionary development of civilization, in which knowledge is combined and multiplied in a single information space. The information technology revolution will quickly turn into a new production force and will make possible the mass production of cognitive and systematic information, new technologies and knowledge. The leading branch of the economy will be intellectual production, the products of which will be accumulated and distributed through new telecommunications facilities.

One of the obvious global incarnations of such a revolution will be the Internet of Things (Internet of Things). This is a direction of global intellectualization and ensuring communication of the living and non-living world. The Internet of Things is designed to track the location and condition of almost any material object or environmental parameter, and manage them.

Material objects will be able to exchange information with each other and with management servers without human intervention. Using a global network with many wireless access points, objects can interact with each other at any distance.

One of the applications of the Internet of things directly in relation to a person is the so-called bodinet. This is a system of implants that monitor the condition of a person and his organs, and transmit messages about this to medical institutions. In the future, it is expected to realize the possibility of correcting this state by introducing appropriate drugs.

If we take into account that by now the volume of information flows has doubled in less than five years, then not so much the possession of information becomes strategically important, as the ability to process, systematize and get new actual knowledge from it faster than others. The cognitive technologies, which in turn can be built on the formalization of cognitive abilities, are focused on solving this problem.

Do not be late with control

In the future, cognitive technologies may lead to the creation of a new mega-industry comparable to the computer industry.

They are focused on helping a person to set and solve problems, including poorly formalized creative (political, economic, military, etc.), to identify and effectively use their cognitive potential, the ability to learn and create.

The social consequences of the introduction of convergent technologies consist in changing the communication systems and the emergence of social forms based on the new capabilities of neural interfaces and virtual reality. Any communication system is currently local in nature, but the combination of machines and the human brain will give the prospect of a new level of communication where information can circulate in the human-machine chain. With the help of nanostructures and nanobots — human-machine interfaces and nanochip implants — direct access of local and global information networks to the human brain and sensory organs will be possible.

Given these achievements and the benefits provided by cognitive technologies, you can try to formulate a range of threats induced by them. Threats can be structured on three levels: global, interstate and local.

Global threats include changes in the goals of wars, which will be conducted precisely for economic control over production built on convergent technologies in all its forms. But this is not the war in the usual sense. It is rather a war of technology, intelligence, confrontation based on information and technological superiority. A kind of material embodiment of this type of war is what we currently call informational and cybernetic wars.

New conflicts will be wars not so much people as artificial intelligence, and they created technology and virtual reality.

In interstate relations for developed countries, there is a temptation to use their advantages in computer technologies and means of information and psychological impact on the individual and public consciousness of a particular country or region for informational, political, economic and cultural expansion.

Today, thanks to new technologies, the effects of information exposure may be comparable to the results of hostilities in the framework of the traditional military confrontation.

Local threats include the following:

-the use of nano-weapons by terrorists;
-side effects of new drugs developed using nano- and biotechnologies;
- ill-intentioned impact on the human condition through the “bodinet”;
- environmental damage caused by poor handling of nanoproducts and genetically modified materials;
-the emergence of new forms of discrimination, including total control over life and human activities.

Some of these threats are relevant today. These are information wars, genetically modified and nanoproducts with not fully studied properties and consequences of application. A number of others will become relevant in years, some will appear in decades. But the emergence of these threats is obvious, predictable and inevitable. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for their parry.

Summarizing, we can note the following. The horizon is already quite close, beyond which the formation of armament systems for the new-look armies on the basis of the currently existing technologies and technical means will become a meaningless exercise. The scientific and technological revolution, which is based on convergent technologies, increasingly requires the awareness of the spectrum they generate and the nature of the threats, respectively, and the formation of a “response system”. Obviously, this is no longer a weapon system in the usual sense of the word, since the confrontation of states and societies in the future is not only and not so much a military one. This is a kind of integral impact of one society on another, covering all possible spheres of human activity - from material to mental, all types of nature - animate and inanimate, all levels of knowledge - macro and microworld.

Therefore, one cannot rule out a scenario that, instead of an unrestrained and extremely dangerous arms race based on convergent technologies, humanity, for the sake of its own salvation, will be forced to tackle the problems of total legal, organizational, instrumental control over the development and practical application of these technologies. It is technologies, and not final products created with their use, that is, weapons models. Only one question remains: will human civilization have time to reach such a high level of awareness of danger in order to take this path, or will it slip into a disastrous technological trap earlier?
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http://vpk-news.ru/articles/28270
29 comments
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  1. blizart
    blizart 6 December 2015 07: 56 New
    13
    Humanity is a snake devouring its own tail. In Mel Gibson's film "Armageddon" there is an episode where an elder, after a successful day of hunting, in rare moments of pacification, near a bonfire tells a parable to young people, similar in meaning to ours - about animals who gave 20 years of their lives to man. The ending is really different, deeper: "And the hedgehog asked the owl - Well, now the person will not be so sad?"
    - No! I saw a big hole in him - points to his mouth - He will take and take until the Earth tells him: "I have nothing more to give you!"
    That’s what, in our irrepressible pride, I see the main problem, and not some legal systems for ensuring control of blah, blah, blah. While we and each of us considers ourselves to be the crown of creation and the other, called upon to take everything into this world without embarrassment, it makes no sense to control us.
    1. Enot-poloskun
      Enot-poloskun 6 December 2015 08: 26 New
      +7
      The Strugatsky brothers have a wonderful novel "Predatory Things of the Century". About how people learned to make from the most simple and safe household things .... psychedelic.

      Unfortunately, in our world, there are much more predatory things ...

      And what to do with it is not yet clear.

      I personally blame the philosophy of consumer society for everything.
      1. Lelek
        Lelek 6 December 2015 08: 40 New
        +1
        Quote: Enot-poloskun
        I personally blame the philosophy of consumer society for everything.


        In addition to your statement: big uncles and aunts haven’t played enough with children’s toys and adults invent themselves, and so that the adrenaline rush in their veins they provide them with life-threatening options. IMHO. angry
    2. Bersaglieri
      Bersaglieri 6 December 2015 10: 44 New
      0
      That is, you propose to "shave off the devil's technique" - and into a hut, into the forest?
    3. gladcu2
      gladcu2 6 December 2015 16: 41 New
      +4
      blizart

      Morality is only morality, as the only system of mutual understanding.

      Egoism, a system that works on the cost of resources per person or an insignificant group of people, kills.

      Only collectivism based on a common system of moral values ​​is able to save a person as a species.
      1. gladcu2
        gladcu2 6 December 2015 17: 48 New
        +6
        Do you know how to educate morality in the younger generation?

        Hold on to the chairs as the answer will surprise you.

        Mathematics. Since only mathematics suggests unambiguous answers. There are no double standards in mathematics. Either two or five.

        Mathematics is an abstract discipline that does not allow to know the nature of the universe. Mathematics is the language of physics.

        A child, constantly encountering difficulties in studying mathematics right up to hatred over time, will subconsciously begin to understand the uniqueness of actions. Understanding comes by the age of 30. But sits clearly without zdvig.
  2. would
    would 6 December 2015 08: 12 New
    +4
    -the use of nano-weapons by terrorists;
    -side effects of new drugs developed using nano- and biotechnologies;
    - ill-intentioned impact on the human condition through the “bodinet”;
    - environmental damage caused by poor handling of nanoproducts and genetically modified materials;
    -the emergence of new forms of discrimination, including total control over life and human activities.


    Essentially, everything that exists is listed:

    1. Concerning nuclear weapons.
    2. It concerns quite ordinary medicines. In view of the replacement of the original drugs with generics that no one is testing, we are facing this right now
    3. Right now there is something similar and concerns, among other things, pacemakers.
    4. Concerning generally any improper and immeasurable human impact on nature.
    5. It has always been

    In short, what awaits us in the distant future will only slightly differ from the existing one. The form will change, but not the basis. GMO products, by the way, can easily turn out to be safer than ordinary ones due to extremely long testing.
    1. Bersaglieri
      Bersaglieri 6 December 2015 10: 47 New
      +1
      So they are safe. As you know, all cultivated plants are the essence of GMOs (only genetic modification through selection required years and decades, and the development of genetic engineering methods reduced this period by a factor of ten)
      1. would
        would 7 December 2015 17: 28 New
        0
        Nice to read the right words about GMOs hi
    2. CT-55_11-9009
      CT-55_11-9009 6 December 2015 14: 30 New
      +1
      Quote: rait
      In short, what awaits us in the distant future will only slightly differ from the existing one.


      Will differ more significantly. Only now we cannot understand how.
  3. Erg
    Erg 6 December 2015 08: 38 New
    +4
    Well ... We are repeating the path of previous civilizations, the cause of death of which was by no means global cataclysms.
    1. Bersaglieri
      Bersaglieri 6 December 2015 10: 48 New
      +2
      Preceding civilizations? Which ones? Is it really "muldashevism" again?;)
  4. Razvedka_Boem
    Razvedka_Boem 6 December 2015 09: 19 New
    +2
    The first works of the Strugatsky were full of faith in humanity .. Like mine ..) But now - The more I know people, the more I love dogs.
  5. srha
    srha 6 December 2015 09: 56 New
    +5
    This is not the first time humanity has been confronted with technological challenges. But really, I don’t want to be like those cities of medieval Europe that were dying from unsanitary conditions and the like simply because they could not develop new rules and change the old ones ...
  6. atos_kin
    atos_kin 6 December 2015 10: 06 New
    +3
    The rapid growth of scientific and technological progress significantly overtakes the social development of mankind. From a consumer society to a creation society, it is still striding and striding. But it is precisely such an imbalance that will lead humanity to communism.
  7. Neophyte
    Neophyte 6 December 2015 10: 45 New
    +4
    "The beautiful is far away", do not be cruel to me ....! Whatever one may say, in this posthumanity, the discrepancy between the elite and the ochlos will prevail in everything. TNC and other world "conspiracies" will create the so-called "golden billion", for the rest of the ghettos and reservations!
  8. Denis Skiff
    Denis Skiff 6 December 2015 11: 08 New
    +3
    Convergent technologies in the energy sector will be embodied primarily in alternative sources. Nanotechnology can improve the efficiency of the refining industry and at the same time lead to a sharp decrease in the importance of this industry. The distribution of low-cost solar cells will begin the process of forming a new, more efficient, environmentally friendly and more decentralized energy management.
    before this happens, people will slightly erase each other from the face of the Earth. And after all this, maybe. It may not be.
    With such partners no hostile aliens are needed.
    One of the applications of the Internet of things directly in relation to a person is the so-called bodinet. This is a system of implants that monitor the condition of a person and his organs, and transmit messages about this to medical institutions. In the future, it is expected to realize the possibility of correcting this state by introducing appropriate drugs.
    These are the little phantom sticks that will make cattle under control, all who will need this. The question is, who is the first to go mad and will hand such a present to the enemy?
  9. Vadim237
    Vadim237 6 December 2015 11: 26 New
    +1
    In Russia, the creation of computer intelligence is in full swing and breakthrough results have already been achieved.
    1. avva2012
      avva2012 6 December 2015 17: 09 New
      +2
      computer intelligence Creating artificial intelligence, similar to human, is not possible. Imagine that in the cortex of gm, there are more than a billion nerve cells. Each cell is connected to more than one hundred thousand cells, neural connections. Every 2-3 of the day, several links break and appears, the same number of new ones. Today, it is believed that this is the process of thinking. So, it's fantastic to recreate something like that.
      1. would
        would 7 December 2015 17: 56 New
        0
        But, however, it is constantly recreated at the birth of a new person. We are also machines, just biological. At the moment, no insoluble impossibility to recreate the human brain is unknown. In theory, this is possible, in practice we have not yet fully studied it and are not able to fully simulate it.
  10. sa-ag
    sa-ag 6 December 2015 11: 54 New
    0
    And where are the drug addicts according to Alexander Tyurin? :-)
  11. gridasov
    gridasov 6 December 2015 12: 30 New
    +2
    Wars are always a product of the "worst" qualities of people and the concentration of power in the hands of groups of people who are not able to answer for the future of their deceived peoples.
    Everything is deeply different from what the author described in his article. You just need to understand that an uneducated and illiterate person is not just an individual with a limited amount of knowledge, but also a person with the potential of this knowledge that simply will not allow him to overcome the bar of the technologies we are talking about. It is clear that a new community of people with superpowers will be formed, but not in the mystical sense of the word, but simply brought up on new approaches to perceiving and analyzing events.
    We are already talking about new methodologies for mathematical analysis based on the function of a constant value of a number. This does not mean that the mathematics of uncertainties and built on a function of a variable value of a number will be gone - NO. It is most suitable for the analysis of low-potential physical and informational events and processes. But this means that a person in his average psychophysiological level of mass is able to control and raise his intellectual level to much higher levels. Of course, that expanded imagination and the ability to introspection and self-criticism in the conclusions will allow a person to create and model more highly productive processes and devices. Therefore, we are already talking about devices of a new type, and most importantly, an analysis method that allows you to combine in the analysis the processes occurring in the hydro-gas-dynamic flow and on the device itself. The complexity and depth of analysis of highly dynamic and conjugate process vectors is a new round of human development. Therefore, wars will become a meaningless occupation for such a level of new people who will be an order of magnitude more viable at a certain transitional stage in the transformation of human generations. And then uniformity will be restored and the future will take the form of sustainable development until new transformations.
    1. cap
      cap 6 December 2015 18: 34 New
      0
      gridasov
      Briefly about your promise"- a person in his average psychophysiological level of mass character is able to control and raise his intellectual level to much higher levels. Of course, expanded imagination and the ability for introspection and self-criticism in conclusions will allow a person to create and simulate more highly productive processes and devices ."
      How can this be correlated with the fact that the use of computers in modern society has not led to the same multiple increase in the intellectual potential of humankind, poverty reduction in the world and universal degradation of fundamental science, with the exception of biotechnology and the improvement of weapons of destruction.
      “Therefore, we are already talking about devices of a new type, and most importantly, the method of analysis, which allows combining in the analysis the processes occurring in the hydro-gas-dynamic flow and on the device itself. The complexity and depth of analysis of highly dynamic and conjugate process vectors is a new round of human development. Therefore, wars will become a meaningless occupation for such a level of new people who will be an order of magnitude more viable at a certain transitional stage in the transformation of human generations... And then homogeneity will be restored and the future will take the form of sustainable development before new transformations. "
      Again, if the process is not interrupted due to the total annihilation of everyone and everything BEFORE this transformation takes place. Who should lead humanity and show the FORCE OF WILL. Are not those political forces that convince the masses of equality based on gender equality?
      Theoretically, you are right, reality speaks differently yet. Idealism however. hi
      1. gridasov
        gridasov 7 December 2015 00: 19 New
        +1
        Have you ever thought about how to create conditions for the existence of mankind without wars and their causes. Try it. Only in any decision, be so self-critical that you do not dissemble and deceive yourself. Now imagine that with your imagination you can create for yourself, at least, the illusion of all those sensations that we really feel, but do not imagine that these are still illusions. After that, would you want to own money and be ill with vanity and envy? You will want to have the ability to control variable conditions in which you can create illusions as close to reality as possible. Humanity is "sick" by the fact that it is primitive in its perception of its own capabilities and is content with these primitive desires. Therefore, understanding and applying the new method of analysis, first as mathematical advanced capabilities, and then changing the binary logic to multipolar, is the first step towards change.
  12. avva2012
    avva2012 6 December 2015 16: 48 New
    0
    The author wrote another horror story. Nature, somehow, itself usually regulates certain processes. Excessive reproduction of certain species ends in epidemics or "strange" acts (lemmings rush into the sea, whales, on the contrary). The human brain also obeys certain laws that are not known to us. In my youth, I read a story about a scientist who had to complete the work of another scientist. So, when he found a solution, he went crazy. In science, there are a lot of fakes in order to knock out grants and funding. Many projects that seemed promising and were written about everywhere came to naught (cloning for example). Few people think, even of those. who knows, but a somatic cell has a limited number of divisions, and after going through all of them, it simply self-destructs. So, personally, I am optimistic about the future. The main thing is to defeat the West, and there, as God willing.
  13. Megatron
    Megatron 7 December 2015 04: 10 New
    +1
    The author decided to put the maximum number of smart words in one article?
  14. good7
    good7 8 December 2015 15: 03 New
    0
    Do not worry judging by the events in the world, let's get back to the stick!
  15. Strong point
    Strong point 9 December 2015 01: 47 New
    0
    As for the change in the LEVEL of human perception, interaction, and, I apologize, for everything else, over the past 70000 years, in principle, nothing has changed. The only thing that can happen in the near future is simply to replace Latin with Cyrillic ... In the global, I have ...
    Sincerely ...
  16. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 10 December 2015 16: 10 New
    0
    "when, instead of an unrestrained and extremely dangerous arms race based on
    convergent technologies humanity in the name of its own salvation "////

    Maybe "humanity in the name of its own salvation" and the A-bomb will come in handy ...?
    For example, they saw through a telescope that a hefty asteroid was flying to Earth.
    Directly "on the forehead". Together, several leading countries quickly riveted a miracle rocket, shoved it into
    her hydrogen bomb of incredible size and crashed into an asteroid (at an angle) to
    he pulled a bit off the dangerous trajectory and missed. Like in Hollywood.
    Next, everyone will cry (real-time shooting) hug, congratulate humanity
    with "Second Birthday" and ... again for the old: wars, conflicts, quarrels.