Military Review

The orchestra changes conductor

Unipolar world ended in Syria

Yakov Kedmi, the ex-director of the Israeli special services “Nativ”, reflects on how Russia's participation in the Middle East conflict affected the situation in the world, in an exclusive interview with Mark Sorkin for the Military-Industrial Courier.

- Two months have passed since the beginning of the operation of the Russian Aerospace Force of the Russian Federation in Syria Do you think, Jacob Iosifovich, did the real political situation in the world begin to change at all - in Syria, around it, in the Middle East, in Europe? Are there any consequences?

- If we talk about the political result that appeared after the beginning of active Russian participation in the Syrian conflict, then we can note several directions.

“The whole Arab world from Algeria and Morocco sees in Russia a country that is not only necessary, but also desirable to be considered”
The first thing is that the issue of solving the Syrian conflict has finally come to real norms. When everyone has already come to terms with the fact that the Syrian troops will be settled with the help of the Russian military situation in Syria, and the political solution will be implemented in parallel with this on the basis that Russia demanded at the very beginning of the conflict - the establishment of a single independent secular Syria. Quite unexpectedly for many, but the issue is almost resolved. This was agreed in Vienna on a joint communique. All parties for the formation of a unified independent non-religious Syria.

The second requirement, which was put forward by all those who started this conflict: the immediate destruction of Assad, is forgotten. The only thing they want to knock out of Russia is a guarantee that Assad will not participate in the next elections. The fact that Syria will hold elections on the basis of a new constitution after all Islamist terrorist organizations are suppressed, and before that there will be a joint government with Assad’s participation, everyone has already agreed to this.

Russia, in accordance with its principles, does not intend to make such promises and firmly stands on the position that the Syrian people in future elections under the auspices of the UN will determine the future power in Syria. And they all agreed on that too.

The orchestra changes conductorBut there are additional elements in this.

The first of them is such that one “small” state that had not participated in the decisions in the Middle East, China, will take part in the next meeting in Vienna. That is, the Syrian conflict has ceased to be a conflict between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States, Qatar and the Gulf principalities for the establishment of the desired regime in Syria.

Today, the question of what will happen in Syria is at the international discussion. Both China, Russia, Iran and Egypt adhere to more or less the same approach in resolving the Syrian conflict. It should be noted that Egypt is the largest and most powerful Arab state. At the same time, he is the strongest Arab supporter of Assad and his power. That is, the conflict is already completely in a different plane, with other main players, when the main base leads to the restoration of the Syrian state as it should be and how the Syrians will define it. It will be at the same time after the new election by the President of Syria, Assad or another person, it does not matter.

The mantra on the elimination of Assad continue to repeat one of the founders of the civil war in Syria. They went under the slogan to remove Assad at any cost. Now they are forced to agree with Assad, so the situation in the Middle East with regard to Syria is completely different than it was the day before Russia introduced its Aerospace Forces.

The second element - the entire Middle East begins to take a different direction.

First, what is happening in Iraq is a statement by the country's leader that if Russia succeeds in suppressing ISIS in Syria, Baghdad is ready to ask Moscow for help. These are not just words. Thus, Russia's participation in what is happening in the Middle East is now a fait accompli.

Moreover, the Europeans, although they are ashamed to talk about this, see in Russia's participation the first and main step in stabilizing the situation in Syria. Russia is the only one who can stop the influx of refugees from the Middle East to Europe. And even Madame Merkel admitted it. An orderly and stable situation in Syria, and then in Iraq, with one or another Russian participation, will lead to the stabilization of the Middle East and an end to the flow of refugees from the region.

This will not stop immigrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Africa, but the main flow from the Middle East, Syria and Iraq will stop. I want to note that a million refugees have already returned to Syrian territory, some of them were liberated there from the Islamists and the opposition.

Another serious moment - Russia and Saudi Arabia exchanged lists and began discussions about who should be considered a legitimate opposition, and who should not. The fact that all religious organizations that started this war will be recognized as illegitimate not only by Syrian troops, not only Russia, but also by all those involved in the conflict, means the beginning of the end of these groups, primarily in the Middle East, in Iraq.

Recently, a landmark event occurred: Iraqi Kurds launched an offensive against ISIS. This strengthens the position of the Kurds, despite their internal differences. But Russia's intervention in Syria deprived Turkey of the possibility of bombing the Syrian Kurds. They probably will not be able to do the same with Iraqi Kurds. Kurds are becoming increasingly active participants in events in the Middle East, which has never happened.

Stabilization of the Middle East is even more important. China’s participation in this issue suggests that the whole world order established after the collapse of the USSR, when only one country decided which regime would be in a particular state, ended. It ended with the beginning of Russia's participation in the Syrian conflict and the involvement of China in the Middle East situation. There will be no more such excesses and shame as Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria and Libya.

- Along with the mantra that Assad should leave, after Russia's intervention in the Syrian problem, another mantra arose. Allegedly, Russia led the struggle of the Shiites against the Sunnis, and thereby restored the entire Sunni world against itself. But we have Egypt - the most powerful Sunni state. How to compare it?

- When trying to find an excuse for a situation, to wishful thinking, you can say anything. Saudi Arabia is negotiating with Russia, and as far as I know, Saudi Arabia is a Sunni state. All Gulf countries are negotiating with Russia, including the procurement weapons. The entire Arab world from Algeria and Morocco, the Sunni world already sees in Russia another country, with which not only it is necessary, but also desirable, to be considered and negotiated. So those who say that Russia has rebuilt the Sunni world against themselves do not just wishful thinking, they are telling impudent, baseless lies, for which there is nothing worthwhile.

- At the very beginning of the conflict in one of the programs you said that the bombing of terrorists in Syria is good, but they are nothing without a land operation. However, the land operation in Syria, in my opinion, does not develop very quickly. Do you think there are any pitfalls here, some outside influence to weaken Russia's position?

- First, quickly and slowly - relative concepts. Secondly, the Syrian army is conducting a war on land. Russia helps only in the field of electronic intelligence and only with its air strikes, not more. The Syrian army is in dire straits. Looking at her, on the frames of the video, it is quite clear what wretched weapons she has, what uniforms. And in general, behavior and discipline leave no doubt that it is more like a professional army, rather than a militia.

They do not have enough and quality weapons, the Syrian army did not show the ability to concentrate a sufficient number of forces, units and artillery fire on a certain sector and develop a rapid offensive.

Probably, they rightly concluded that they would slowly, trying to spare the weak and small Syrian army, squeeze the terrorists out of certain points. In general, although it developed slowly, today the Syrian army is on the verge of breaking the current situation.

After the blockade from the military airfield near Aleppo was lifted, the Syrian army almost opened the road to the Euphrates. The road to Rakka passes through this airfield.

Syrian troops are less than twenty kilometers from Palmyra, and from there, too, is the road to Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. That is, Syrian troops reach the Euphrates and block ISIS on the opposite bank.

It also opens the road to the north in order to connect with the Kurdish enclave and thereby cut off ISIS from the rest of Syria.

Already started fighting in El Khader. The capture of this city practically releases or transfers power to the Syrian armed forces on the highway that goes from Al Hamma, further Aleppo. And this place is located in 10 – 12 kilometers from Idlib. Accordingly, within two to three weeks, Syrian troops can seize northern Syria and cut it off and everything south of Turkey. Every day — in Homs, and in Al-Hamm, and in Damascus — the Syrian army advances daily, and the only question is when this advancement will lead to a sharp break. This is a question of two or three weeks. Therefore, it should be understood that assistance to terrorists in armament and reinforcement is declining, their reserves are also decreasing. Therefore, it almost does not matter whether the military actions in Syria will end in a month, in two or in three ... The direction of the events is unequivocal.

In addition, I want to remind you that Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, proposed to appoint elections in Syria in a year and a half. By that time - and I think much earlier - Syria will be in full power of the government army without any kind of terrorists, except those who, on the one hand, are non-religious, and on the other, will agree to cooperate with the current Syrian government against ISIL, "Al “Qaida” and “Muslim Brotherhood”.

- Clear. Let's talk about the situation around Syria. Over the past month, the number of Saudi Arabian voyages to the Russian Federation has increased dramatically. Even the king himself is going to come. In Turkey, Erdogan won the election. Tell me, what do the Saudis want to get from the talks in Moscow?

- Saudi Arabia had two main directions.

The first thing they really wanted, but I think, wise enough people to understand that this is impossible - to persuade Russia to surrender Assad. Secondly, it is important for them to leave as much of the forces they support as a legitimate opposition.

Saudi Arabia understands that two independent processes are taking place that are quite tangible in the Middle East: the weakening of the role of the United States and the strengthening of the role of Russia. And Russia, in contrast to other countries, in this case has good relations with Iran, Syria, and with all the others. Closer relations with Russia can help Saudi Arabia in stabilizing the situation in the Middle East and minimizing the threats to it from hostile forces. Saudi Arabia today is one of the weakest states.

There is another aspect that Saudi Arabia has in mind. It turned out that Russia possesses quite successful types of weapons. And Saudi Arabia is ready to weigh all the virtues, and not only it, and to begin the purchase of Russian weapons from both political and purely practical considerations. Russia is profitable. I want to remind that Russia, then it was the Soviet Union, is one of the first states that recognized Saudi Arabia after its creation in the 1928 year.

The Middle East is becoming more balanced, stabilized, integrated into world politics, not so focused on one side.

- But I did not accidentally mention Turkey. After all, if, on the one hand, Turkish Kurds retake Raqqa, and on the other, Iraqi Kurds are attacking from the south of ISIS, the possibility of creating a Kurdish state is not excluded. Turkey is unlikely to agree with this situation. What do you think, what role can Russia play here?

- The position of Russia in the Vienna talks until today, and it is unlikely to change, is a united Syria. This means the Syrian Kurds will remain within the framework of the Syrian state.

Russia explains to Assad that the best thing for him is to give the Kurds autonomy within the framework of a united Syria. The Turks bombed the Syrian Kurds and stopped doing it only with the advent of Russian aircraft. Only within the framework of a unified Syria is guaranteed that Turkey will not bomb the Syrian Kurds in the future. Regarding the Iraqi Kurds, it is still unclear how it will end there.

- But Barzani was once very much focused on the Soviet Union.

- Yes. They said that Stalin gave him the rank of Major General of the Soviet Army and that even he allegedly met with Stalin. It does not matter.

Today, the Kurds of Iraq have their own difficult internal problems: tribal, political. Between the Talabani and Barzani tribes. On the other hand, the Kurds of Iraq cannot exist, being in a military conflict with both Iraq and Turkey, when Syrian Kurds are in Syria. Therefore, I am not sure that the issue of creating a Kurdish state on the basis of the unification of the Kurds of Syria, Iraq, I’m not even talking about Turkey (this is still a single state), is relevant today. In relation to the Syrian Kurds, he is least relevant. With regard to Turkish Kurds, it must be said that as long as the power in Turkey is strong and authoritative, and as long as its economy is sufficient, the country will remain united. Therefore, with the Turkish Kurds option unreal. With regard to Iraqi Kurds, this will depend on the development of events, above all, among the Kurds themselves. Because their last differences sharply weaken the likelihood that even Iraqi Kurds will gain their independence.

You may have to solve the problem in some other way, but that is another question. But I will tell you: there are still peoples who do not have their own state. For example, Balochi (Iranian people) - 18 million people. And if we are talking about Tajiks, then in Tajikistan there are only about 5,5 million. Where are the other 15 millions?

- In Afghanistan ...

- And in Afghanistan. And where does the majority of the iderjadans live?

- In Iran.

- Where do most Uzbeks live? Not in Uzbekistan. That is, a state in which the people are not all within the framework of their national state, unfortunately, still exists, since conditions are not ripening both among this people and in the international situation.

Let's see how this epic will end in such a more peaceful, civilized region as Spain.

- Let's take the last question. Recently a G20 summit was held in Turkey. How to evaluate its results?

- Now everything does not happen under the direction of one state, which had clear plans, but on the other hand, it could do everything it wants. With this arrangement, when the 20 states are assembled, it is very difficult to conduct them. So far we are witnessing a transition period from one conductor to a real international organization, which will take into account the interests of all its participants. During this transition period there may be different variants of the development of events. We are at the stage of transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar one.

- So, the unipolar world has already been destroyed, but the multipolar world has not yet been formed?

- The unipolar world no longer exists, despite the fact that those who created it and those who cling to it, continue to assert that it is. And when the US Secretary of Defense speaks with the words: “We are for the preservation of the established order with the hegemony of the USA And we are against the fact that some individual countries, namely China and Russia, opposed this order and acted. ” He speaks correctly, only he is a little late. There is no unipolar world and order established by the USA. The world is in a transitional stage, from that order to the new.
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  1. dorz
    dorz 4 December 2015 12: 59
    # prostitution
    1. Ayujak
      Ayujak 4 December 2015 13: 13
      The true essence of Erdogan was revealed! Now everything fell into place ...
      1. Sergey Polt
        Sergey Polt 4 December 2015 16: 59
        You have a dill approach with this collage ... Not funny ...
        1. 16112014nk
          16112014nk 4 December 2015 18: 16
          Not funny, but revealing!
        2. Nosgoth
          Nosgoth 6 December 2015 04: 33
          Now it is fashionable, if there are no compelling arguments against someone's opinion (what you don't like), to hang labels (like, "dill", "ukropsky", etc.)? In the US style, they say "doing this is bad, and why is it bad, ask the office"?
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 4 December 2015 13: 02
    “The whole Arab world from Algeria and Morocco sees in Russia a country that is not only necessary, but also desirable to be considered”

    This alone is already inspiring optimism.
    And China, and Russia, and Iran, and Egypt adhere to more or less one approach.

    This is to Western spells that Russia is lonely. And this is not an ordinary representative of Israel. Well, etc.
    1. DDR
      DDR 4 December 2015 13: 15
      Quote: rotmistr60
      This alone is already inspiring optimism.
      And China, and Russia, and Iran, and Egypt adhere to more or less one approach.
      This is to Western spells that Russia is lonely. And this is not an ordinary representative of Israel. Well, etc.

      All this is good, but as the Russian proverb says "Friends are known in trouble" hi
      1. corn
        corn 4 December 2015 13: 20
        Quote: DDR
        "A friend in need is a friend indeed"

        In food. wink
      2. Lily
        Lily 5 December 2015 04: 37
        No one talks about friends. There are common interests: to return peace to the region.
    2. g1v2
      g1v2 4 December 2015 13: 18
      Finally, Kedmi began to spread on the site. And after all, a couple of months ago I proposed to reduce anti-Semitism on the site when Banshee took care of them. wink
      The funny thing is that he is now pro-Russian, but he is forbidden to enter Russia from the very beginning of the presidency of the GDP, as a representative of the special services operating against the Russian Federation. Well, do not forget that the native acted primarily against the USSR and its contribution to the emigration of Jews from the union was great. Of course there were many among them, whom it was absolutely not a pity to see off and cross after them, but there were many valuable specialists. However, now it’s in the past and listening to Yasha Kazakov’s analytics (aka Kedmi) is always interesting. hi
      1. corn
        corn 4 December 2015 13: 21
        Quote: g1v2
        he is now pro-Russian

        1. corn
          corn 4 December 2015 14: 32
          For those who do not like my comment, let me answer with the words of Ostap - Suleiman - Bert - Maria - Bender - bey (the son of a Turkish citizen): "Let the one who thinks it is a girl throw a stone at me."
          For those who are not very familiar with the term "Turkish subject", I advise you not to consider him a Turk, but to surf the Internet.
      2. Lily
        Lily 5 December 2015 04: 39
        Yes, all the Jews who left the USSR to Israel and did not sail further, had already returned to Russia, received Russian citizenship. They don’t go to republics.
    3. Vikings
      Vikings 4 December 2015 13: 25
      It would be nice if, apart from us, they would read in Washington-
      Fasting, New York Times. All world famous media would be reprinted!
  3. yuriy55
    yuriy55 4 December 2015 13: 05
    The world has always been multipolar, only Russia is located closer to the pole of cold. Different African Americans can’t get used to it ...
  4. Tor5
    Tor5 4 December 2015 13: 05
    Reasonable, clear and much explanatory article. Thanks to the author!
  5. A-Sim
    A-Sim 4 December 2015 13: 06
    That's it ...
  6. Decathlon
    Decathlon 4 December 2015 13: 08
    For me personally, a very sober and balanced analysis! From the lack of completeness of the picture, it was somehow disturbing in my soul. Now, after work, you can even brandy a glass of cognac! Well, or two ... what
  7. hrenq
    hrenq 4 December 2015 13: 10
    The Israeli population is very !!! scared. Quiet, sit and wait, where all this will take.
  8. sever.56
    sever.56 4 December 2015 13: 10
    I always read articles with interest and listen to the rare speeches on our TV by a serious specialist and analyst Yakov Kedmi. He is deep in the subject and knows what he is talking about. I agree with his opinion expressed in the article.
    1. Vita vko
      Vita vko 4 December 2015 13: 18
      Kedmi estimates the situation of Jacob very competently. I especially liked his speech after the attacks in Paris.
      It's just not clear what the coalition forces of Syria, Iran and Russia will do when they face the American coalition in the area of ​​the Syrian oil fields. And this will surely happen immediately after the destruction of the main forces of ISIS (Daesh) Will they build the "Berlin Wall" again?
      1. sever.56
        sever.56 4 December 2015 13: 31
        Quote: Vita VKO
        It’s just not clear what the coalition forces of Syria, Iran and Russia will do when they run into the American coalition in the Syrian oil fields. And this will happen immediately after the destruction of the main forces of ISIS (DAISH

        I do not think that the West will risk dividing Syria along any borders there. Indeed, in the north of Syria there will remain territories inhabited by Kurds who will die, but will never fall under the Turks.
        I think that now the direct benefit of the West, if they are not complete idiots, is to stop the distraught Führer-Erdogan, who freely lets millions of migrants into Europe, to close the completely Syrian-Turkish border, and continue to bury Daesh in the sand.
        The best option would be the removal of Erdogan from power in any way - physical destruction, a fatal disease, a coup.
        1. Vita vko
          Vita vko 4 December 2015 14: 32
          Quote: sever.56
          I do not think that the West will risk dividing Syria along any borders there. After all, in the north of Syria there will remain territories inhabited by Kurds who will die, but never

          TV channel LifeNews, citing Syrian sources, writes that on November 26, Turkish army units invaded Syria and built several of their own roadblocks in the immediate vicinity of the border with Turkey in the Tal-Ziyab area. The construction was carried out by construction crews using special equipment.

          The process has already begun. When it comes to billions, everyone will share.
      2. The comment was deleted.
  9. Wolka
    Wolka 4 December 2015 13: 13
    subjectively, but for a general understanding of the situation is very useful, the author plus ...
  10. serega.fedotov
    serega.fedotov 4 December 2015 13: 15
    Although Russia guarantees the integrity of Syria, but after SU24 the Kurds may well receive the broadest autonomy, formally remaining a Syrian provincial, and in fact an independent state under the "roof" of Syria (but in reality Russia) Such a situation will be beneficial for us and for Syria and the Kurds
  11. corn
    corn 4 December 2015 13: 18
    I liked the author’s reasoning that most Tajiks, Uzbeks, Azerbaijanis do not live in the titular countries. I would like to add that the situation with Jews is the same: in the world - more than 16 million, in Israel - 6.1 million, in the USA - 5,9 million. wink
  12. Alekseev-Orsk
    Alekseev-Orsk 4 December 2015 13: 20
    The article is encouraging)))) keep it up !!!
  13. 3 Gorynych
    3 Gorynych 4 December 2015 13: 24
    The Israelis must be listened carefully - clever men, albeit cunning Jews! They have good analytics - it’s not in vain that they have been kept on the razor's edge for so many years, but of course they will never tell the whole truth!
  14. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 4 December 2015 13: 33
    I love smart Jews. And stupid - I would not love. Just did not meet. laughing
    1. GAF
      GAF 4 December 2015 14: 38
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      I love smart Jews. And stupid - I would not love. Just did not meet

      Check out the technique for identifying stupid ones. After correcting the tests, your dilemma may well resolve itself by itself.
  15. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 4 December 2015 13: 33
    We realized that moving beds is useless.
  16. Jozhkin Cat
    Jozhkin Cat 4 December 2015 13: 36
    They sit, adult men, wondering what and how it will be. PPC
    We will live, and we will love, but death will come, we will die soldier
  17. askort154
    askort154 4 December 2015 13: 37
    The article is interesting and positive. The relationship strategy and
    interests of countries and nationalities in BV. Only, the interview was done before the Turkish provocation.
  18. fif21
    fif21 4 December 2015 13: 38
    Obama said in an interview with SNN that Russia has no allies in the Middle East except Assad. He also said that a country with a ruined economy cannot be considered a leader. Obama does not understand that US “exceptionalism” is coming to an end. When he realizes this, it will be too late! and the United States will not be able to start a war for world leadership.
  19. Al_oriso
    Al_oriso 4 December 2015 13: 42
    The thing is who will take Rakka faster - the Kurds or the Syrian army.
  20. PatriotKZ
    PatriotKZ 4 December 2015 13: 53
    Cool interview !!! bully
  21. 4 December 2015 14: 04
    I will paraphrase the phrase from the movie "Beware of the car" - This is Erdogan and he is a traitor (bribe-taker) !!! repeat wassat
  22. Mishut37rf
    Mishut37rf 4 December 2015 14: 06
    - "Who does not know how to listen to Lavrov, he will have to listen to Shoigu!"
  23. soroKING
    soroKING 4 December 2015 14: 26
    Quote: corn
    Quote: DDR
    "A friend in need is a friend indeed"

    In food. wink

    in a bidet bully
  24. salad
    salad 4 December 2015 15: 04
    Norm article)
  25. avva2012
    avva2012 4 December 2015 16: 01
    What is valuable about the interview with J.Kedmi is that it is not just another "observer" who answers questions, but an analyst who has worked for many years in intelligence. A person's brains are so sharpened that emotions, like or dislike, he does not pay attention. I have looked through more than one interview and I think that they are valuable not by forecasts, but by an analysis of the situation. He is not a Wang to predict. An intelligent, balanced person. Unfortunately, he was not the only one who left for Israel.
  26. hartlend
    hartlend 4 December 2015 21: 35
    More such articles. To the author plus.