Military Review

"It is possible that Turkey will leave NATO in general"

69
“The Turkish military has become disillusioned with global international security structures. Searching for technologies that could provide Ankara with rocket and nuclear weapon"- Turkologist Alexander Vasilyev told the newspaper VIEW. He also does not exclude that the Turkish army, where ideas about the national empire are alive, will soon invade Syria.


On the eve of Russia launched a C-400 anti-aircraft missile system in Syria. Together with the Fort complex of the Moscow-launched missile cruiser, it will ensure the safety of the flights of the Russian air group and destroy any targets that pose a danger to it. It took about a day to implement this solution.

The same day, the Turkish President said that in the event of intrusion into the country's airspace military will act in the same way as in the case of the downed Russian bombers. This republic has long and consistently building up its military presence near the border with Syria, pulling back heavy weapons and artillery.
It is clear that the war between Russia and Turkey is not yet able to walk and talk, but the incidents and clashes in Syria (the country, which Ankara considers a zone of its interests) with the participation of the military in both countries is now quite possible. Than it threatens Russia? What is currently the Turkish army? How it sees the future of Turkey? In an interview with LOOK told about it at the Institute of Oriental Studies and the Russian-Turkish educational and scientific center of Russian State Humanitarian University, a visiting expert of the Center for Analysis, Strategy and Technology Aleksandr Vasilev.

VIEW: Alexander D., distinguished in principle by the Turkish army allied armies of NATO?

"It is possible that Turkey will leave NATO in general"

Alexander Vasilyev (photo: rsuh.ru)

Alexander Vasiliev: Maybe this army is not as high-tech as the United States, but it is very numerous, well-armed. Two circumstances distinguish it favorably from the armies of Europeans and Americans - this is the readiness for great casualties and the readiness to fight in extremely uncomfortable, harsh conditions.

Best of all psychologically motivated commandos and officers. The army is formed on the basis of the call, and most of it up recruits. But in the barracks is being reinforced advocacy process. And in general, when initially lower level of motivation than the officers, recruits will also be motivated enough.

If you look at the biographies of the latest chiefs of staff, you will see that they speak two or even three Western languages, have studied for many years not only in Turkey, but also in Western Europe, in NATO structures around the world. They have great political, administrative, and sometimes diplomatic experience. The generals consist of educated people and at the same time determined. The main ideology is, of course, nationalism, but it often turns into ultra-right views.

VIEW: And how high are now among the generals Erdogan's credibility? It is known that at the beginning of his reign, he was faced with a constant dull resistance war.

A. V.: Attitudes towards him changed. Just recently, the archives were made public in the cases of Kuvalda, Ergenekon, and Baloz Plan, in which preparations for a coup were incriminated to the military. A lot of personal correspondence has been published, from which it can be seen that the attitude in the general staff to Erdogan was far from enthusiastic, and the attitude towards the question of whether the military should interfere in politics is ambiguous.

Some in the general staff were going to intervene in politics, but the moment did not give them a chance. Erdogan used the criteria that the European Union put forward for entry, to break the military, to subjugate it to his will. It ended with the fact that a civilian specialist became the Minister of Defense, and economic issues were removed from the competence of the General Staff and transferred to the Ministry of Defense. Financial and industrial banking structures of the military were also hit. The so-called "Mutual Assistance Society of the Military" controlled large sectors of the economy, but it did not report to anyone, but was controlled by senior officers. Erdogan made this “society” publish accounts for the first time in 30 years. Thus, he proved that he could easily put the military in place.
However, at the end of August of this year, the annual meeting of the Supreme Military Council of Turkey was held, on the eve of which a part of those arrested in connection with the preparation of the coup unexpectedly came out of prison. Many "hawks" rehabilitated and returned to their seats. Moreover, some of them are even promoted. All this indicated that Erdogan had generally agreed with the military. Although a year ago the armed forces were experiencing a crisis of governance due to that wave of arrests.

VIEW: But generals can still go back to the real power, as it was before Erdogan?

A. V.: It is possible. A few years ago, many analysts said that he broke the back of the army. But now everything has changed. Entry into the European Union was postponed indefinitely. The future of Erdogan himself became hazy. It is not clear who will be his successor. Hence, there are chances for revenge generals.

Now he rehabilitated the army - unwittingly, under the influence of difficulties in Syria and Iraq. It took a lot of time to train and promote loyal officers to the top. But officers are needed here and now.

VIEW: The generals are likely to applaud the death of the Russian aircraft?

A. V.: The General Council has long proposed to conduct a more active foreign policy. It is possible that he would not even like to limit himself to the destruction of a single Russian aircraft, but to prepare for the open annexation of the Turkish regions of Syria.

In recent years, the Turkish government is very actively developing the theme in the media that the border at the end of the First World War, that is the border with Syria, have been laid unfairly divided and the Turkish people.

Keywords: NATO, Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan, Russia and NATO, army and weapons, the war in Syria, Russia and Turkey, the crash of Su-24
It is disturbing that forces continue to build up on the border with these Turkoman regions. Pulled up Tankshowitzer artillery. Against the background of Erdogan’s unpredictability, we may well expect a land operation in Syria.
VIEW: But such a step as part of the accession of Syria, will meet explicit rejection allies? NATO can not be composed of the state with disputed borders.

A. V .: I made a very curious observation during a recent visit to Turkey. Many military have become disillusioned with global international security structures. Now the search for technologies that could provide Ankara with rocket and nuclear weapons is on the agenda. In the future, after achieving this goal, it is possible that Turkey will leave NATO at all.

I saw the reports of Turkish military experts thesis that only the possession of nuclear weapons will help Turkey to fully pursue an independent foreign policy.

Of course, the nuclear program is still in its initial stage. In addition to the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in the south, construction of the Japanese nuclear power plant in Sinop, on the Black Sea, has already begun. As far as I know, until recently, personnel for the Turkish nuclear power industry were extensively and actively trained in our MEPhI.

In addition, Turkey has recently achieved success in creating missile weapons, primarily with the help of technology that the Europeans and Americans passed on to it, and, of course, by purchasing ready-made missiles in China. In particular, Turkey already has tactical missiles, such a clone of the Chinese system with a launch range of about 300 kilometers. The latest exhibition of weapons IDEF-2015 in Istanbul showed quite great successes of the Turks in rocket production. It is very dangerous.

VIEW: How have shown themselves recently the Turkish Air Force?

A. V .: It is difficult to say what kind of modification was the F-16, which attacked our plane, but in the last two or three years the Turks have modernized part of their F-16 fleet. I think it was carried out with the aim of expanding the range of its capabilities as an attack aircraft, rather than as a fighter, for delivering, above all, ground strikes.

In general, the Air Force professional enough, well equipped, although there are a number of problems. There is a shortage of trained pilots. Many of the cadets did not renew contracts and massively went to the civilian sector after the devaluation of the lira, the salary of military pilots was too low.

Another problem is the aging of the aircraft fleet. Now the basis of the Air Force are F-16 and F-4 of various modifications. So many of the F-4 already, apparently, have exhausted their resources. In less than a year, the 3 – 4 crash involving F-4 does not happen, and the most frequent victims are young pilots. F-4 is used either for training, or for reconnaissance, or as attack aircraft - due to the lack of modern attack helicopters.

VIEW: In what state is now the navy?

A. V .: The fleet is probably going through one of the best moments in its stories. Erdogan 10 years ago announced an ambitious program to create the Navy. It is planned to build a universal landing craft and a whole series of frigates and corvettes, a series of submarines — all this by the efforts of the national industry. And in anticipation of these ships, in the quality of, so to speak, temporary compensation, the Turks turned to the creation of speedboats. Actually, the long coastline also requires patrols on such boats.

In general, the armed forces still maintain the priority of the Army and Air Force. Navy and Coast Guard were financed before the secondary basis. But Erdogan's ambitious program shows change, priorities shift toward the Navy. I am personally very concerned that the next 5-7 years planned to build a series of amphibious ships, helicopter carriers, which will significantly increase the possibility of the Turkish army on the prompt transfer of power on the sea. The question is not whether they are intended for the Crimea or our coast.
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  1. linen
    linen 1 December 2015 05: 07
    +1
    The Turkish-Igil Shaitan is not so terrible as he is painted! Skillfully and beat shaitan!
    1. mirag2
      mirag2 1 December 2015 05: 21
      13
      In recent years, the Turkish government is very actively developing the theme in the media that the border at the end of the First World War, that is the border with Syria, have been laid unfairly divided and the Turkish people.
      If you actively pedal the theme of World War I, the Armenian Genocide will again become an urgent topic, and the Kurdish issue is behind it.
      ... Many military were disappointed ... it is possible that Turkey will leave NATO altogether ...
      - maybe the Turks and want to get out of NATO, but NATO won’t let her go, its geostrategic LOCATION is too important.
      1. venaya
        venaya 1 December 2015 05: 32
        +6
        Quote: mirag2
        If you actively pedal the theme of the 1st World War - and the Armenian Genocide the Kurdish question will be again an urgent topic. ...
        - maybe the Turks also want to get out of NATO - but NATO will not let it go - its geostrategic LOCATION is too important.

        I will add that Van Lake is a sacred lake for Armenians, not to mention the sacred Mount Ararat. Considering that the Armenian diaspora outside the borders of Armenia is the largest of them all and very influential in the world, the Turks may have too many problems.
        1. Tatyana
          Tatyana 1 December 2015 06: 34
          +4
          mirag2 (4)
          maybe the Turks want to get out of NATO, but NATO won’t let it go, its geo-strategic LOCATION is too important.

          It is possible that the Turks are not so short-sighted!
          For after 5-6 years of NATO in Europe may no longer exist at all! And, besides, with the settlement of European countries by Muslim "refugees" in Europe, completely and without NATO, a completely different demography and political geography are expected.
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. andj61
          andj61 1 December 2015 09: 05
          +1
          Quote: venaya
          Considering that the Armenian diaspora outside the borders of Armenia is the largest of them all and very influential in the world,

          Still, the largest, apparently, is the Chinese diaspora, and the most influential is the Jewish one. But the Armenians too - I agree - have great influence, especially in the USA and France.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Stepan stepanovich
        Stepan stepanovich 1 December 2015 08: 29
        +3
        The Turkish-Igil Shaitan is not so terrible as he is painted! Skillfully and beat shaitan!


        Trying to beat the Turkish shaitan, damn on sandpipes in Syria, at Ankara’s side without “nuclear weapons”. One should not even be ailing for the whole head, but simply a complete general.
        1. andj61
          andj61 1 December 2015 09: 31
          +1
          Quote: Stepan Stepanovich
          Trying to beat the Turkish shaitan, damn on sandpipes in Syria, at Ankara’s side without “nuclear weapons”. One should not even be ailing for the whole head, but simply a complete general.

          Modern methods of warfare often do not involve direct contact between the conflicting parties. And then there are "hybrid" methods of warfare, the use of rebel groups, etc. Throughout the summer of this year, the Turks were ironing with aviation and armored vehicles the areas where the Kurds live on their territory - and they did not achieve much success. Now imagine that these Kurds will receive modern portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems?
          1. varov14
            varov14 1 December 2015 11: 59
            0
            Dear friend, in order to organize this wisely and in our favor, it is necessary to carry out the corresponding reconnaissance and other policies for more than one year, and you can only proceed from the bay-flounder in ....
        2. Scraptor
          Scraptor 1 December 2015 18: 45
          0
          The "Bastion" from Crimea covers almost the entire northern coast of Turkey. "Calibers" from Azov can drown the Turks in the Mediterranean, she is at her side.
      4. andj61
        andj61 1 December 2015 09: 03
        +1
        Quote: mirag2
        If you actively pedal the theme of World War I, the Armenian genocide will again become an urgent topic, and the Kurdish issue is behind it.

        During and after World War I, not only Armenians were subjected to genocide, but also Greeks - Istanbul (Constantinople) was 1% a Greek city, the West coast of modern Turkey, as well as the Black Sea coast was inhabited mainly by Greeks; as well as Kurds. Besides extermination, the Kurds were partially resettled - along with the Turks - to the liberated Armenian lands.
      5. varov14
        varov14 1 December 2015 11: 48
        +1
        In NATO, there are no fools to go into the bottle, Turkey is a boil on the ass of Russia, and if the Jews could bomb the scientific centers of Iran, then here we are a bummer, they won't let us get close. Moreover, foolishness is enough to teach potential enemies atomic technologies, the "green" brains have eaten away like a cancerous tumor. And in all directions, wherever you go.
      6. vladimirw
        vladimirw 1 December 2015 12: 23
        0
        if they want, then the Turks will leave.
      7. APASUS
        APASUS 1 December 2015 20: 57
        0
        Quote: mirag2
        If you actively pedal the theme of World War I, the Armenian Genocide will again become an urgent topic, and the Kurdish issue is behind it.

        If this is really true, then it is not known who else was lucky
        anonymous sources say - "Russia is going to terminate the Kars and Moscow Treaties, as a result of which Turkey may lose up to 30% of its territories."

        Moscow Treaty (1921) - the Russian-Turkish treaty of "friendship and brotherhood", signed on March 16, 1921. in Moscow between the government of the Turkish Grand National Assembly and the government of the RSFSR. In accordance with the agreement, the Armenian cities of Kars and Ardagan departed to Turkey. Mount Ararat also appeared in Turkey.

        According to the Treaty, Russia prolongs it every 25 years, and now the time is right for the next signing of the Treaty, which Russia may not legally do. In this case, Turkey will be forced to return vast territories.

        It is worth recalling that these lands in Turkey are still deserted after the Armenian genocide of 1853-1923, since Turkey always considered the possibility of returning the territories occupied at the beginning of the century, and therefore there was no investment involved and there was no modern infrastructure.
    2. Lepila
      Lepila 1 December 2015 09: 27
      +1
      It would be great if the perdogan was kicked out of NATO and deprived of access to Western technology. But this is unlikely to happen ...
    3. varov14
      varov14 1 December 2015 11: 36
      0
      "If you look at the biographies of the last chiefs of the General Staff, you will see that they speak two or even three Western languages, they studied for many years not only in Turkey, but also in Western Europe, in NATO structures around the world. They have great political, administrative, and sometimes diplomatic experience. The generals consists of educated and decisive people. The main ideology is, of course, nationalism, but often it develops into ultra-right views. "---- At least not the last 25 years, but from two thousandths it was from Russian society to create a similar shock fist, naturally on a different ideological basis. But do the haps think of such a thing, they have lowered this society on the contrary, donkeys are in power.
  2. Seneca
    Seneca 1 December 2015 05: 08
    +1
    Yeah .. leave No.
  3. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 1 December 2015 05: 15
    22
    Today is the Day of Military Glory of Russia - the Russian squadron defeated the Turkish fleet
    at Cape Sinop, 1853. Maybe the Turks have already forgotten?
    1. Al_oriso
      Al_oriso 1 December 2015 06: 04
      +1
      Our people are not used to beating the Turks, it is not clear that this author of the article caused a panic here.
      That they should be afraid of us!
      1. Bayonet
        Bayonet 1 December 2015 07: 16
        +5
        Quote: Al_oriso
        Our people are not used to beating the Turks, it is not clear that this author of the article caused a panic here.

        Kenechngo is no stranger, but you should not forget something. Remember how the Prut campaign ended in 1711 - a typical example of hatred. hi
        1. Al_oriso
          Al_oriso 1 December 2015 07: 58
          +1
          Needless to say, you should not underestimate the enemy.
          But there should not be any depressed, panic moods.
          So you can lose before you start the battle.
        2. afdjhbn67
          afdjhbn67 1 December 2015 08: 02
          0
          Quote: Bayonet
          typical example of hatred

          The Turks with their attack showed that they are not particularly afraid of the Russian Federation, and without the nuclear component the Turkish army will yield little to the Russian, especially to take into account those. support of the West in the event of a conflict, let alone fighting near its borders, is much easier than for three seas .. Therefore, in the event of an invasion, they are unlikely to be countered apart from protest
          1. 73bor
            73bor 1 December 2015 09: 06
            0
            Don’t be afraid when big uncles are behind you! And even without a nuclear component, the Turkish army is a collection of obsolete equipment that fought only with Kurdish partisans.
            1. Vladimir 1964
              Vladimir 1964 1 December 2015 17: 22
              0
              Quote: 73bor
              Don’t be afraid when big uncles are behind you! And even without a nuclear component, the Turkish army is a collection of obsolete equipment that fought only with Kurdish partisans.

              Boris, for information. Turkey is one of the few European countries that has full production cycles for a fairly large number of weapons. For example, the Turks have developed and brought to mass production their own main tank, produces a serious range of wheeled armored vehicles. So to consider the Turkish army "a collection of outdated equipment" is somewhat not objective, colleague. hi
    2. kartalovkolya
      kartalovkolya 1 December 2015 10: 02
      0
      Of course they forgot, if they "dared" to send as many as two submarines to the area of ​​operations of the RK "Moskva" and it seems that no one will wait for a new "stab in the back", but simply, they will simply "delete" these two "units" from the naval personnel. "flat-headed"! After all, they were "unambiguously" warned about the reaction of our Armed Forces to any aggression against our ships, both air and sea (especially the Navy)! So, they have not yet "paid off" for the treacherously killed our military, but again " run up against "retaliatory actions of the Armed Forces of Russia!
    3. varov14
      varov14 1 December 2015 12: 07
      0
      They know for sure that under the current Russian and "Western European" authorities, nothing will get into the trench.
    4. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 1 December 2015 15: 39
      +6
      Apparently the unfinished Turk put a minus! fellow
  4. venaya
    venaya 1 December 2015 05: 20
    -1
    It is possible that Turkey will leave NATO altogether

    God forbid !!! I note that Turkey itself is not at all located on the North Atlantic, but far, far away from it, from the Atlantic.
    1. mirag2
      mirag2 1 December 2015 05: 23
      +2
      Turkey itself is not at all on the North Atlantic, but far, far away from it
      - The fact of the matter is that it is very, very close to the borders of Russia.
      Therefore, the United States will not allow her to leave the "club of Russia's enemies" -NATO.
    2. Sirocco
      Sirocco 1 December 2015 07: 48
      0
      Quote: venaya
      It is possible that Turkey will leave NATO altogether
      God forbid !!

      Yeah, the bees are against honey.
      I think Turkey all this time and kept for this role, the role of provocateur. She was cherished not for leaving NATO, and her eyes were closed on dirty tricks in the EU.
      1. sabakina
        sabakina 1 December 2015 09: 30
        +1
        I think Turkey all this time and kept for this role, the role of provocateur.

        In the film "Admiral Ushakov" there is an episode when an English lord says about Turkey: "Let this watchdog down."
        1. sabakina
          sabakina 1 December 2015 09: 39
          +1
          He did not find the passage, but this passage says a lot ...
  5. Gray 43
    Gray 43 1 December 2015 05: 25
    0
    Will the Turks be able to fight on two fronts - against Syria and against the Kurds? Then a "heap of small" will be formed - where we support Syria, and the staff are Kurds, and where the staff, there is Europe. The Turks didn’t shoot down our plane, they apparently firmly believed in the support of NATO, for which such mean things are a common thing
    1. Sirocco
      Sirocco 1 December 2015 07: 50
      +1
      Quote: Gray 43
      Can the Turks be able to fight on two fronts, against Syria and against the Kurds?

      I think our Western "partners" think the same. Will Russia be able to fight on two fronts if it can be drawn into the war?
    2. novobranets
      novobranets 1 December 2015 07: 56
      0
      The Turks now have a bench press point, NATO has denied an operation to attack a Russian bomber. And the main Turk now urgently cleans up the traces, and removes witnesses.
      Turkish authorities have arrested two generals and a former colonel on charges of espionage and divulging state secrets. The military was involved in the incident with the interception of trucks belonging to the Turkish intelligence service, writes Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, citing Turkish media. The Turkish government claims that the cargo should have been delivered to the Syrian Turkmen so that they could protect themselves from the Islamic State (IS banned in Russia - ed.). However, the Turkish opposition suspects that the weapon was intended for IS militants, the newspaper writes.

      РИА Новости http://ria.ru/world/20151129/1331774198.html#ixzz3t2fFtG00
  6. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 1 December 2015 05: 27
    +1
    They want to increase the territory at the expense of Syria !! You see, they don’t like the results of the 1st World War !!!

    And the fact that the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles were with them ?? This is damage to Russia!
    Pieces were torn from different peoples.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 1 December 2015 06: 05
      -1
      Quote: Reptiloid

      And the fact that the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles were with them ?? This is damage to Russia!

      But Alaska ended up in the United States, the USSR collapsed, this is also damage. Then what?
      1. Reptiloid
        Reptiloid 1 December 2015 07: 50
        +1
        The Turkish press writes about the revisions of the results, but they don’t suit other countries for other reasons either. Armenia, Greece, maybe Azerbaijan, Bulgaria or someone else. Well and Russia. Speech about the straits is a revision of the results in favor of the Russian Federation. Such a grotesque. As you know, Russia itself refused from Alaska. 2 times it tried to post its comment --- for some reason it didn’t work. Until the evening.
      2. gispanec
        gispanec 1 December 2015 09: 04
        0
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        But Alaska ended up in the United States, the USSR fell apart

        when Alaska and the USSR were still remember the Roman Empire and what now
  7. papont64
    papont64 1 December 2015 05: 27
    +2
    How many wolves do not feed, the bear anyway ... fatter !!!
  8. Wolka
    Wolka 1 December 2015 05: 29
    +2
    Turkey’s attack on a Russian bomber is a predictable excess of the executor within the framework of Western and NATO policies, in particular, why is it predictable, because historically Turkey has always lived due to the banal robbery of weak neighbors and its policy has always been built on a strong army as the main instrument of robbery, Syria it’s a tidbit for everyone, because everything repeats, only on a qualitatively new level with new opportunities, but with old appetites, now NATO comes to the understanding that keeping Turkey in NATO can be dangerous for NATO itself ...
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 1 December 2015 06: 03
      0
      Quote: Volka
      Turkish attack on a Russian bomber is a predictable excess

      Strange, then why didn’t you write anything about this before the attack? I didn’t see your comment with a forecast about the attack of a Turkish plane on our bomber. Although of course it’s so obvious that writing about it wasn’t worth it wink
  9. TVM - 75
    TVM - 75 1 December 2015 05: 35
    +1
    Nobody will let go of Turkey. As the bonfire attenuates in Ukraine and is mastered by mattresses, the same bonfire will be raised in Turkey. The goal is to spoil the doors of Russia. And here this couple is the most suitable.
  10. avva2012
    avva2012 1 December 2015 05: 35
    +3
    If you look at the biographies of the last chiefs of the General Staff, you will see that they speak two or even three Western languages, have studied for many years not only in Turkey, but also in Western Europe, in NATO structures around the world.

    It is difficult to say if this is a plus, training in Western Europe. What are NATO strategists famous for over the past fifty years? When did Europe actually fight and with whom? In the 20th century there were colonial wars, but nowhere, there were no victories. Iraq? But, as far as I understand, there is a total betrayal of the top generals. Afghanistan? According to the information that I happened to read, our 40th Army by 1985 practically resolved the issue with the Mujahideen. And, if not for Gorbachev's "strange" decision on joint military operations with the local armed forces, the issue would have been finally closed. Ours in the DRA did not lose the war. The withdrawal was a political decision, not a failure. The same Gorbachev, Shevardnadze, did everything to destroy not only the USSR, but also to frame people who believed us (the murder of Najibula). You can also notice that the current military specialists in ISIS are former officers and generals of the Iraqi army. And they studied in Moscow, the capital of the USSR.
  11. Aleksandr21
    Aleksandr21 1 December 2015 05: 35
    +3
    It is very doubtful that Turkey will leave NATO. Firstly, Turkey has the Incirlik Air Force Base (that is, who will let her leave it), and secondly, does Turkey need it? If Turkey leaves NATO, then immediately all the neighbors come to recall the favor (Iraq, Iran, Syria ... even Israel), not to mention our country, so it is very unlikely. The United States needs control over BV, and with Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO, the US’s capabilities will decrease significantly in that region.
    1. ImPerts
      ImPerts 1 December 2015 05: 46
      +1
      Quote: Aleksandr21
      If Turkey leaves NATO, then immediately all the neighbors come to remember the favor

      This is unlikely.
      Quote: Aleksandr21
      The United States needs control over BV and with Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO, the US’s capabilities will be significantly reduced.

      But this is true, here I completely agree. Therefore, sacred dances with a tambourine around Turkey will be.
      The search for technologies that could provide Ankara with missile and nuclear weapons is on the agenda for them.

      And here, the sacred tambourine mantras will be categorically against it. Although the construction of nuclear power plants will lead to the appearance of nuclear physicists in Turkey. The process is not fast, but natural. 20 years or more.
      1. Aleksandr21
        Aleksandr21 1 December 2015 06: 12
        +2
        Quote: ImPerts

        This is unlikely.


        Yes, it will definitely not go wall to wall :) the times are not the same, but they can try to start to ruin Turkey through the Kurds, in any case, Turkey's support for the Islamists will cost it dearly, the ears of Turkish intelligence reach out from many terrorist groups, starting from cooperation with Isigil on the issue of supplying cheap oil to Turkey, ending with the support of the "Muslim brothers", and this is clearly not like the countries of the region, and Turkey has enough "friends", Egypt will definitely not forget about the "Muslim brothers", Syria about an attempt to squeeze out the country's terrorism, Israel about the support of terrorist organizations and the conflict around the flotillas of freedom, Iran from a religious component and because of personal ambitions in an effort to become the main force in the BV, so the region is cheerful there :)
        1. Amurets
          Amurets 1 December 2015 06: 35
          +1
          Quote: Aleksandr21
          so the region is funny there :)

          Since the time of Selim Yavuz and Suleiman the Magnificent, this region has not been boring for anyone. Learn the history.
  12. avva2012
    avva2012 1 December 2015 05: 41
    +3
    The army is formed on the basis of the draft, and most of its members are conscripts. But in the barracks, intensified propaganda treatment is being conducted. And in general, with an initially lower level of motivation than that of officers, recruits will also be reasonably motivated.
    Advocacy training and motivation of conscripts are good when aggression against the country is committed. For external conquests, all the same, professionals are needed. What does a Turkish kid need in Syria? With serious losses, fermentation will begin in the army and in society.
  13. theadenter
    theadenter 1 December 2015 05: 43
    +2
    We need to properly protect our cruiser Moskva from threats. I do not sense the Turkish submarines there, but keep it at gunpoint, in case we bang at their intruder planes.
  14. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 1 December 2015 05: 46
    +2
    Of course, no one forbids sitting to chew on the structure of the Turkish army, only we did not Somalia to weigh our forces. Turkey, in any case, will turn into a torn chicken coop after our coercion to peace!
  15. Vladimir71
    Vladimir71 1 December 2015 05: 52
    0
    The question arises if Russia knew about this, so why did they develop such vast economic ties? Where do these grief strategists or frank Judas (or maybe interested or just fools) sit, is corruption and liberalism so overwhelmed the ruling elite and the most important question when will the purge in the ranks of the government and structures close to state administration from this public begin?
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 1 December 2015 06: 11
      0
      Quote: Vladimir71
      The question arises if Russia knew about this, so why did they develop such vast economic ties?

      A thin world is better than a quarrel.
      Quote: Vladimir71
      ), is corruption and liberalism so overwhelmed the ruling elite and the most important question when the purge in the government

      Yes, yes, yes, the Kremlin is to blame.
      1. miru mir
        miru mir 1 December 2015 08: 45
        +2
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        A thin world is better than a quarrel.

        Truly so!
      2. kartalovkolya
        kartalovkolya 1 December 2015 10: 19
        +1
        Yes, dear Alexander, now only the "lazy" one does not blame the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin personally for what happened in Syria, but ... But no one even hinted about this "BUT", although everyone is well aware of him: what he got "inherited" after Yeltsin's GDP and what he did and what he achieved during the years of his rule ?? So let's start with this, after all, he is not really Hercules, in order to cleanse the "Augean stables" with the help of a stream of water (after all, in this way, you can "wash away" the whole country), there is still enough of all the "crap" in the authorities and authorities, but the painstaking work on recovery is underway and brings its results! Let's not rush to conclusions, but gain patience and start "with the whole world" to help Putin and jointly pull Russia out of the quagmire where the "liberal traitors" have brought it! You are a plus, but not for sarcasm, but for the offer to really weigh your conclusions ...
  16. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 1 December 2015 06: 08
    +1
    For Turkey, this will not change anything! We stopped their greyhound anyway and will continue to stop it.
  17. avva2012
    avva2012 1 December 2015 06: 21
    0
    I, as I understand the author’s thought, that Turkey wants to leave their NATO in order to have Ya.O.?
    In my opinion, NATO will not allow the appearance of Ya.O. in Turkey. Why do they need an extra headache? I think the West, this way and that, will do everything to prevent such a country from joining the nuclear club. What would happen if someone like Erdogan took, but shot down not a plane, but a missile from Ya.O.?
    1. andj61
      andj61 1 December 2015 09: 18
      +2
      Quote: avva2012
      I, as I understand the author’s thought, that Turkey wants to leave their NATO in order to have Ya.O.?

      This is just the author's thought. By strengthening its army, Turkey will receive only applause from NATO - it is in their interests, and if Turkey starts to act somehow wrong, you can always say that it is not acting within NATO. Quite good relations between the Kurds and the United States do not prevent Turkey from bombing the Kurds, and the United States "not to notice" these actions of its ally.
      Quote: avva2012
      In my opinion, NATO will not allow the appearance of Ya.O. in Turkey.

      Of course, this is not in the interests of the United States. But these interests did not prevent the appearance of nuclear weapons in both Israel and Pakistan. If the leadership of Turkey shows the will, then nuclear weapons may appear in them. The only obstacle is the control by the IAEA - and Turkey is a member of this organization. True, access for control is a voluntary thing ...
      However, the author in vain connects the construction of nuclear power plants by Japan and Russia with the nuclear potential of Turkey - these projects are under the control of the IAEA, and it is not possible to use the reactors of these stations to produce weapons-grade plutonium.
      1. avva2012
        avva2012 1 December 2015 09: 36
        0
        Well, Israel is in a special position. Jewish lobby, no one has yet canceled. Pakistan, I don’t know. He seems to be an ally of the United States. Here, as an option, the counterweight to India. It can be assumed, and in the direction of China, a threat. Turkey, if without emotion, is a strange partner. Maybe kick back.
  18. Seneca
    Seneca 1 December 2015 06: 22
    +6
    It's funny .. just not long ago they scattered enthusiasm about Edrogan "a man with steel eggs" .. "almost like ours" .. "does not bend before the Americans" .. "pursues an independent policy" .. And he turned out to be a bitch like everyone else. ..hy-gee-gee laughing
  19. The comment was deleted.
  20. 72jora72
    72jora72 1 December 2015 06: 30
    -2
    I made a very curious observation during a recent visit to Turkey. Many military have become disillusioned with global international security structures. Now for them the search for technologies that could provide Ankara with missile and nuclear weapons is on the agenda.
    only the Death Star and liquid terminators will help ....
  21. mamont5
    mamont5 1 December 2015 06: 35
    0
    Quote: Al_oriso
    Our people are not used to beating the Turks, it is not clear that this author of the article caused a panic here.
    That they should be afraid of us!

    You shouldn’t be so. The author does not cause panic, but makes analysis and, in my opinion, quite accurate. I also believe that the Turkish army in Europe is the most numerous and, most importantly, the most READY (psychologically, not technically) for war.
    Another thing is that the resistance in the battle of the Turkish army was historically at a very low level, when meeting with a worthy opponent, of course. Suvorov defeated the 100-thousandth Turkish army, having 7 thousand of his division and 25 thousand of Austrians Prince Coburg, but the same Coburg (in another battle), managed to be defeated by the Turks, having almost double superiority.
    Beat the Turks and other Russian commanders Kutuzov, Rumyantsev, Minikh, Skobelev, etc.
    1. rotmistr60
      rotmistr60 1 December 2015 08: 11
      0
      I agree with you. The author really does not cause any panic. He analyzes how the Turkish army can, which is really not frail in this region. The question is different. What else can the Turks go under the leadership of their "leader" and how can we answer in this case.
  22. Yak28
    Yak28 1 December 2015 06: 55
    +1
    Of course, NATO will not let Turkey go, it is an excellent springboard near Russia. Plus, the exit of any country from NATO will set a precedent, and the organization will fall apart over time, but the start of a ground operation in Syria by the Turkish army is quite possible. Yes, and the straits of the Turks can block. In the event of a ground operation and a massive tank offensive, the Turks can quickly get to the places of deployment of the Russian air defense systems and airfields, and the Turkish fleet in that region is even superior to ours at sea, so the situation is not funny enough and we need to prepare for it
  23. Zomanus
    Zomanus 1 December 2015 07: 45
    0
    Well, Turkey will climb on us obviously not with a great mind.
    It’s one thing to bring down an airplane, albeit on purpose.
    We can say that they defended their borders.
    The truth is also inadequate complete.
    And a completely different direct attack on our troops with the transition to Syrian territory.
    I’m afraid that after this the Turks will have to build from scratch, starting from their base.
  24. Tequilla
    Tequilla 1 December 2015 08: 04
    0
    But another question seems to me interesting, how real is NATO support in the framework of Art. 5, in the event of a conflict between us and the Turks?
    Suppose we are shooting down a couple of Turkish planes over Syria bombing Assad’s army, or God forbid for our downed bombers, for this their submarines are attacking the RK Moscow, and the ground forces are invading Syria, ours are forcing peace from Armenia and it started ... Here even if we provide all the data of objective control, they say that we were not the first to start. The Turks will immediately begin to appeal to the article on collective security. So they themselves will not leave until the elder brother looms behind and allows them to foul.
  25. LÄRZ
    LÄRZ 1 December 2015 08: 05
    +2
    Choo? from NATO? Her, let them sit where they have been since the 52nd year. Today Turkey, tomorrow the United States will ask for it and will it work out? The imbalance of power and the complete mess. No, no words, you need to punish, otherwise immediately: "Get out!" Of course, I understand that the family has its black sheep, but this is one big, very "friendly" family. In one word, NATO. What is the most precious thing for a Turk? Right! Let them pay as much to NATO as the United States. Will they come out and do what they want? And so at least at the very least under the supervision of Brussels. Like a foolish child. You can't give up your beloved sweetheart so easily. Even though IT is down.
  26. Thunderbolt
    Thunderbolt 1 December 2015 08: 25
    0
    Turkey can be expelled from the bloc or declare its own withdrawal, but only in order to 1.) remove political responsibility from the West for the actions of the Turks 2.) To free its hands for solving its regional problems. We can say that Turkey is firmly "stuck" in Syria. It was planned to quickly deplete the Syrian army and overthrow Assad, followed by the division of the state and the creation of the Arabian Peninsula - Europe corridor under Turkish control. But the operation dragged on. Meanwhile, there is another vector of geopolitical aspirations of Turkey. This is the Caucasus and the plain stretching north of it. P.S. Exit from the bloc in the near future is unlikely. Turkey, not having decided in Syria, needs this security umbrella.
  27. Sergey Guriev
    Sergey Guriev 1 December 2015 08: 46
    +1
    Turkey was fed (raised economy, admitted to NATO) and kept for a specific purpose. Ho's day has come. Erdogan was hung with a clothespin on the eggs and was told that the pliers are ready and if there is no further spoiling (provoking) of the Russian Federation in Syria, a sharpened blade will be added to the pliers. So he tries to get rid of a clothespin. It is clear that in a single moment the Turkish economy will not collapse, but the decline in the standard of living of the population will be long-term and sensitive, Erdogan has no future, and he will eat his own. In Turkey itself there are enough people who want to eat Erdogan with all the children and with all the contents, and they have every chance of it. Erdogan perfectly understands this and will act desperately, pan or disappeared, he does not care about ordinary Turks from the highest minaret, they will survive as in Afghanistan (Libya, Iraq ...) - their problems. Therefore, do not underestimate a cornered rat. A possible exit from NATO is hardly an initiative of Turkey itself, although they themselves have voiced it. Most likely, Turkey will be pushed out of NATO, as its role is a desperate attack on the Russian Federation, and NATO will stand aside better and look at the result. According to the results will draw conclusions. Turkey itself will be spared and no one will raise.
  28. YaMZ-238
    YaMZ-238 1 December 2015 09: 05
    +1
    And what will the Turks alone do? It’s hard without mother’s boobs ....
  29. Velizariy
    Velizariy 1 December 2015 09: 07
    +1
    Turkey, most likely, formally, will be abandoned in NATO and may even be condemned in the UN, and an aggressive policy of Turkey and an open conflict with Russia will begin, but NATO countries will definitely support with weapons, intelligence and, perhaps, combat-ready units of the EU will take part. Since the "world community" is not morally ready for a war with Russia, and Turkey is capable of fighting. The Russian-Turkish war, although Russia will win, but losses in all respects will be significant and internal saboteurs will try to harm the national economy as much as possible and inflame popular unrest and try to finally destroy the core of our people.
  30. Vikings
    Vikings 1 December 2015 09: 19
    +1
    Quote: flax
    The Turkish-Igil Shaitan is not so terrible as he is painted! Skillfully and beat shaitan!

    I admit that the current leadership of Turkey is guided by momentary
    interests. But you don’t have to discount her readiness for self-sacrifice. You don’t have to go far for examples, spend a short excursus in
    our relations. Turkey, even if it wants, will not let NATO go
    Usa! .Assume more instruments of pressure (dissatisfied generals, Kurds,
    wide polarization of society, etc.) What concerns the invasion of Syria?
    there Russia, the Turks only shine hell !!!
  31. AlexTires
    AlexTires 1 December 2015 09: 23
    +1
    Everything is exactly the opposite, in the current political situation, Turkey will never leave NATO, and NATO will not want to remain without Turkey - the geographical position of the Turks is too important. In addition, it is convenient for them to have an evil dog on a leash, Erdogan to bite Russia ....
  32. MIgele
    MIgele 1 December 2015 10: 02
    0
    Here in the article the author correctly wrote, the education and professionalism of the general staff is of utmost importance, and we have only "old, sluggish mushrooms" there, everything that happens so far shows their ineptitude and mediocrity, so we are losing one step behind. It is enough to look at the commander of the Aerospace Forces, this "soviet tambourine" could have been driven from the Aerospace Forces with a nasty broom in two failures, but a normal one would have left himself. How it was possible to send bombers and rescue helicopters without support, they first show how Mi-24s are swarming at the base, why not one was sent to support rescue workers, why there is no KA-50, which is specialized for fighting in the mountains, they are now whining "we didn't think", this is a war, you went to fight, behave like wolves, and "a tail like a heifer," so they pushed it into it. Now they sent the cruiser Moscow, without the support of anti-submarine ships and destroyers, but a Turkish submarine torpedoes it at any moment and that's it, I'm sure they are already cutting circles around it. And how many people serve 300-500 on it? I have always felt sorry for the people (soldiers) who died because of the ineptitude of their commanders, whose soldiers never felt sorry for themselves and gave their lives for their Motherland, which sometimes set them up and substituted them with inept leadership or exchanged for economic handouts from our opponents.
  33. JonnyT
    JonnyT 1 December 2015 11: 41
    +1
    logical, quite. NATO is alleviating itself from problems, and it looks like they want to sacrifice Turkey (or make it the main scapegoat). They need war, it is simply necessary. But military operations with NATO’s participation are too risky pursuit of total destruction, but if only Turkey fights, then it’s quite satisfactory. You can and supply secretly and not be afraid of a blow in other places.
    Imagine - we will be surrounded by non-aligned countries, manual terrorist groups against which we will have to wage war, and the main organizer will have nothing to show.
    It very much resembles the situation with Hitler - they raised him, armed him, directed him, and then they retreated, hid in the shadows, and did business with him.

    We should not forget the fact that some of our partners just want to kindle Karabakh - Stable Transcaucasia is extremely inconvenient for the transfer of terrorists to the North. Caucasus
  34. Vega
    Vega 1 December 2015 12: 27
    +1
    I read the Turkish press in Russian in the grid. Very interesting!! Sheer complaints to everyone, to NATO - why they did not support it, to the USA - why they expressed condolences, to Russia - why it helps Syria, etc. Who cares to read, easy to find. Territorial claims are generally sea, and to all in a row, even to NATO allies. There is still a claim to them - why they did not invite to the exercises and did not use the Turkish bases. To their claims - why not patriots, who are not patriots, to the nail. So what about NATO I do not understand how it will end.
  35. Prisoner
    Prisoner 1 December 2015 15: 49
    +1
    An empty chatter! The Turks showed their need to the owners of Obama. Talk that they are so-so consumer goods, chatter to the public. Hard times are coming and we need to be strong.