At first, I thought that Turkey, by virtue of its policy, shot down the plane itself and immediately hid behind NATO (an emergency meeting of NATO on the same day), but further statements by its leaders - “Turkish President Recep Erdogan said he would consider the situation an act of aggression against Turkey’s sovereignty “If a Turkish military aircraft that violated Syria’s airspace is shot down with the help of the Russian anti-aircraft complex,” this indicates their confidence, then they feel supported. Although Turkey’s statements were softened in a few days, due to disagreements within NATO itself (not everyone was aware of the provocations). In my opinion, the basic course of Turkey will not change, especially since this is part of a multi-path process that they did not plan, statements by US representatives (they were aware of) on this incident are proof of that.
In this chess game, terrorist attacks in Paris do not fit for me, because they pushed France towards closer relations with Russia and more realistic and intensive actions against ISIS, which is not in the hands of the coalition led by the USA, which, like Turkey, fought against ISIL only for the media . In my opinion, here the chaos controlled by the states periodically gets out of control. The rest of Europe did not support Paris, it is not clear that someone else would move.
What could happen next if the war in Syria drags on. One of the negative options for us is another provocation from Turkey - their plane knocks down our air defense over the territory of Syria, as they themselves warned, this will be regarded as an act of aggression against the sovereignty of Turkey and in connection with our aggressive behavior the passage of ships of the Russian Federation carrying military goods through the Bosphorus, will be closed. This will greatly complicate the supply of our group in Syria. There is an alternative via Iran and Iraq by land, but we need the northern territories of Syria for this, still under the control of ISIS. Or air travel, which is expensive. Another land variant is via Iran, then by water through the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, Syria, but this is 4-5 times longer than through the Bosphorus. I am sure that our management has calculated this option. Do not forget about the situation in Ukraine, which has nothing but debt and the army, which is openly collected at the borders of the DLNR.
A more favorable scenario is the liquidation of ISIS during the year, the restoration of law and order in the territory of Syria and Iraq, followed by mutually beneficial cooperation between our countries. Europe will force Poroshenko to withdraw the army from the DLNR and start restoring the economy of their country. All live in peace and harmony!