Military Review

Political weight of the ruble

76
In Russia, the price of bread was a political issue, showing the stability of the ruling regime. In the 1990-ies and to this day, the second such issue was the ruble exchange rate, which, given the share of imports in the domestic market, began to determine the numbers on price tags. Many Russians today are concerned about the question of what will be the rate of the national currency tomorrow, which everyone has long learned to compare with prices in stores and their own incomes. The fact that last year’s sensible initiatives to punish banking speculators have remained well-meaning wishes adds a special edge to what is happening. It turned out to be easier for lawmakers to tax ordinary Russians. So, from the situation of repetition of the stresses of the end of 2013 - the beginning of 2014 of the year or the collapse of the end of 2014 of the year (“Black Tuesday”), no one is insured.


Political weight of the ruble


In the near future, three important circumstances will put pressure on the ruble: a fall in the economy, a fall in oil prices and a government policy that seeks to plug holes in the budget with a sharp devaluation. Such side effects as stress and impoverishment of the population, the command of the sovereign husbands are of little concern: as independent economists tell us, only at the dollar price of at least 75 rubles the Medvedev government can keep the budget of the year from total collapse.

Today, what happens to the ruble is also extremely beneficial for bankers and other financial speculators with good insights, as well as for the commodity sector, which receives profits in foreign currency and incurs costs in a depreciating ruble. There is nothing to say about the benefits of Western countries: buying Russian assets cheaply and at the same time swaying the political situation (social protests in the country are already gaining momentum), they achieve two goals at once.

What can theoretically support the ruble? In the near future, of course, it is a cold winter in Western Europe and the US East Coast, which will cause an increased demand for energy. However, in that year, weather forecasters also promised a cold winter, but for the above-mentioned regions it was just a record warm one. Moreover, oil storage facilities around the world are overcrowded, and the Gulf monarchies will stifle any price spikes if necessary. So hope for the winter, if there is, it is very weak.

No one has canceled the impact on oil prices, and, consequently, the ruble, of the events in the Middle East. It is not even about Syria and Iraq, although about them too, but about Yemen, where the coalition of Arab countries risks meeting the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war.

The influence of the elections to the State Duma in September 2016 will have its effect. If the rate falls below the psychological barriers, then dissatisfaction with power will affect the results of the vote. Contrary to popular belief, the rule “it doesn’t matter who votes, it’s important who counts the results” doesn’t always work. An abstract “necessary” batch can be arranged with 55% with a real rating in 35%, but the same maneuver is difficult to do if the rating hangs around 10% and the air is electrified with revolutionary moods. Which, besides, have the broadest support, both from abroad, and from a part of regional elites. So from the point of view of ideal political expediency, the course should not change much before the elections.

True, all these arguments are valid only if one circumstance is observed. This circumstance is the exhaustion of the reserves of both the government and the Central Bank. Forecasts when reserves can be exhausted differ fundamentally. If the overwhelming optimists talk about the end of 2016 of the year, then according to other forecasts, the cubs will show the bottom already in the first quarter. Unfortunately, even the experts are not aware of the true state of the reserves, which, according to rumors, are being plundered by the court officials at an “accelerated pace”. And this is not counting support for various regimes in the CIS and the Syrian campaign. The inflation that followed and the catastrophic decline in the standard of living threaten with unpredictable political consequences.

It would seem that the sources of replenishment of foreign exchange reserves are literally under the nose. This is the same agriculture, which brought a huge foreign exchange earnings during the Russian Empire. Or engineering, which gave the currency to the Soviet Union. But for this, skills are needed that are greater than the ability to simply “master the budget.”

At the moment, forecasts regarding the national currency rate are more similar to fortune-telling by the stars. Both the experts and the population here are approximately on an equal footing - and those and others do not know what will happen tomorrow. Cherished insides, as always, there is only a handful of the elect - the banking elite.
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  1. EFA
    EFA 1 December 2015 06: 04
    12
    The ruble will remain at a low rate until the government suddenly changes its mind, and there are no reasons for this, as well as prerequisites.

    Indeed, a weak ruble is beneficial to everyone, even the Russian budget, oddly enough, and as long as the economic indicators (which are attributed and attributed) are acceptable, nothing will be done. Then, as always, bam and hello 1998, remember how it happened? Literally in a day, they simply drained the ruble, and our own "benefactors" in the government drained themselves out, and at the same time they did a good job personally.
    1. vladimirZ
      vladimirZ 1 December 2015 08: 13
      21
      From the article:
      What can theoretically support the ruble? In the short term, this, of course, is a cold winter in Western Europe and the US East Coast, which will cause increased demand for energy ...

      It would seem that the sources of replenishment of foreign exchange reserves are literally under the nose. This is the same agriculture, which brought a huge foreign exchange earnings during the Russian Empire. Or engineering, which gave the currency to the Soviet Union. But for this, skills are needed that are greater than the ability to simply “master the budget.”

      What can fix the situation with the ruble and the economy?
      The main thing is a change in economic policy, the resignation of the liberal Government of D. Medvedev.
      Without this, the trouble is for the Russian economy, the ruble, for the people and Russia itself !!!!
      1. Al_oriso
        Al_oriso 1 December 2015 08: 49
        21
        The main thing is a change in economic policy, the resignation of the liberal Government of D. Medvedev.

        But is there anyone who replaces this government and can create a strong economy? From a change of position, the sum, in this case, can become even less.
        There are two ways out - realistic and fantastic (from the joke of Yu. Nikulin).
        Realistic: aliens will fly in and fix everything.
        Fantastic: we will fix everything ourselves.
      2. anip
        anip 1 December 2015 09: 37
        +9
        Quote: vladimirZ
        The main thing is a change in economic policy, the resignation of the liberal Government of D. Medvedev.

        Well, of course, Putin has nothing to do with it, right?
        1. Boris55
          Boris55 1 December 2015 11: 10
          +2
          Quote: anip
          Well, of course, Putin has nothing to do with it, right?

          While someone else is to blame for your troubles, troubles will not leave you
          In the recent regional elections, in almost all subjects of the federation, Medvedev's Party (United Russia) won, thereby the people voted for the previous course of NOT developing the country, and what do you want from Putin in this case? - what would he go against the will of the people? Maybe it’s time for us to think for ourselves who to vote for, and not to look for the extreme.
      3. Mareman Vasilich
        Mareman Vasilich 1 December 2015 11: 47
        +8
        For a strong ruble, people with steel eggs, will and courage should be in power. If you look at the ruble, then there are no such people yet.
    2. sherp2015
      sherp2015 1 December 2015 10: 20
      +6
      Quote: EFA
      The ruble will remain at a low rate until the government suddenly changes its mind, and there are no reasons for this, as well as prerequisites.


      What kind of government is there ... Is that ... you name the government?
    3. chunga-changa
      chunga-changa 1 December 2015 12: 00
      +4
      Quote: EFA
      Indeed, a weak ruble is beneficial to everyone, even the Russian budget, oddly enough

      Poor citizens cannot be profitable either to the state or industry, they do not bring profit. Not to mention the threat to the political regime. T.ch. here, rather, we see the actions of foreign agents to defeat the country.
      1. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 1 December 2015 12: 01
        +6
        Quote: chunga-changa
        Poor citizens cannot be beneficial to either the state or industry,

        25 years already unprofitable and what ???
        1. chunga-changa
          chunga-changa 1 December 2015 18: 14
          +2
          We have? Nothing, all is well. Women willingly give birth to 3-4 children, people live better and better. Industry is on the rise, releasing everything you need for life, from slippers to computers. The level of education is rising, medicine is getting cheaper and better. People live longer, retirees actively travel the world. And you?
    4. I am Russian
      I am Russian 1 December 2015 17: 27
      +2
      It would seem that the sources of replenishment of foreign exchange reserves are literally under the nose. This is the same agriculture, which brought a huge foreign exchange earnings during the Russian Empire. Or engineering, which gave the currency to the Soviet Union. But for this, skills are needed that are greater than the ability to simply “master the budget.”


      During the times of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union - the RUBLE was GOLD. And under the Russian Federation, the "ruble" is a derivative from the SGA dollar, with nothing backed up.
      1. Hello
        Hello 1 December 2015 18: 23
        0
        Quote: I-Russian
        The "ruble" is a derivative from the SGA dollar, and it is not backed by anything.

        They departed from the gold system as being not the most efficient, and there is not so much gold. At the moment, the currencies of all self-respecting countries are backed by goods, services and resources produced and mined in the territory of these countries, including Russia. hi
        1. I am Russian
          I am Russian 1 December 2015 18: 46
          +1
          Derivative is not self-esteem. hi
          1. Pretoreanec
            Pretoreanec 11 December 2015 18: 29
            0
            You cannot even tighten your pants with self-esteem, and even more so the ruble!
            It would be better if the Russian Federation really started to engage in derivatives (increasing consumer demand): everything is better than squeezing geese as part of impot substitution (another company in the spirit of a scoop) and throwing tomatoes at the Turks.
            By the way, at the expense of sanctions against Turkey: on what gentlemen are good, will you print sobbing iskanders? Two-thirds of the textile for the light industry of the Russian Federation was supplied from Turkey ...)
  2. Ivan Slavyanin
    Ivan Slavyanin 1 December 2015 06: 13
    +2
    I just started reading and realized that Kabardin went on the air again!
    1. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 1 December 2015 08: 59
      +2
      Yes, a great specialist in all matters, from agriculture to the nuclear bombing of Turkey.
  3. Seneca
    Seneca 1 December 2015 06: 15
    22 th
    "How long will Putin hammer igil, until the oil becomes $ 100 a barrel" And worries about social protests .. what the author of this article is trying to do is not worth it. repeated as with long-range combatants who act on the orders of the State Department. In the end, there is an example of the DPRK .. in the 90s there was a terrible famine .. and nothing .. "kimersen" survived. So not everything is so bad and terrible in the future.
    1. Hello
      Hello 1 December 2015 08: 30
      19
      Quote: Seneca
      long-range soldiers who act on the orders of the State Department.

      wassat Maybe it's not the State Department? And the fact that some of the comrades in power have their hands sticking out of the priests? It turns out that long-range soldiers can no longer work normally on orders from Washington. Business affairs
    2. Hon
      Hon 1 December 2015 08: 53
      +3
      Quote: Seneca
      as with long-range truckers who act on the orders of the State Department.

      fool
      Quote: Seneca
      in the 90s there was a terrible famine .. and nothing .. "kimersen" survived.

      In the 90s there was grace for commerce, then they went up to the stinking stall, many from the stalls to the oligarchs
      1. Greenwood
        Greenwood 1 December 2015 17: 54
        +1
        Yeah, if only halfway to the oligarch you local lads will not resolve.
    3. Pretoreanec
      Pretoreanec 11 December 2015 18: 48
      -1
      Do you offer people to eat grass like Kims, while Rotenbergs foie gras will eat in Barvikha with a guarantor?
      Vague doubts overwhelm me: do not feed from one pelvis?
  4. zekaze1980
    zekaze1980 1 December 2015 06: 18
    13
    In a word, so far in priority, those who are in power will not have in the first place the well-being of the people, be ordinary citizens slaves.
    1. Al_oriso
      Al_oriso 1 December 2015 09: 23
      +5
      Did once the well-being of the people stood in the first place with the authorities?
      Until the people demand, the government will not move.
      "The upper classes cannot, the lower classes do not want" ...
      1. I am Russian
        I am Russian 1 December 2015 17: 47
        0
        In a word, so far in priority, those who are in power will not have in the first place the well-being of the people, be ordinary citizens slaves.


        belay request
  5. Humen
    Humen 1 December 2015 06: 22
    +7
    I would like to hear the names of these independent economists. And also exclude rumors from this article. And it turns out that I hear a ringing, but I don’t know where it is. All conclusions are by type: here respected people have told me and like everyone says that ... It's ridiculously simple.
    1. Colonel
      Colonel 1 December 2015 07: 58
      +1
      Quote: Humen
      exclude rumors from this article

      So the article will not remain!
    2. Colonel
      Colonel 1 December 2015 07: 58
      -1
      Quote: Humen
      exclude rumors from this article

      So the article will not remain!
  6. Jarilo
    Jarilo 1 December 2015 06: 27
    11
    What percentage of the structure of exports is oil? Why is the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on the cost of oil on the international market almost 100 percent? Why in other countries, more dependent on oil exports, there is no such fall in the national currency? Why is it more profitable to produce in China, although the income of the population (average wage) is higher there than in Russia? Etc.
    1. Boos
      Boos 1 December 2015 07: 02
      +8
      Because in China the government is to work and does not say "nice words" ...
    2. Hon
      Hon 1 December 2015 08: 58
      +4
      Quote: Jarilo
      What percentage of the structure of exports is oil? Why is the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on the cost of oil on the international market almost 100 percent? Why in other countries, more dependent on oil exports, there is no such fall in the national currency? Why is it more profitable to produce in China, although the income of the population (average wage) is higher there than in Russia? Etc.

      Welcome to Russia. I have not lived in our country for a very long time, only about thirty years, but over these thirty years, I do not remember the period when everything was done through our asses
    3. Alexl
      Alexl 1 December 2015 09: 28
      -1
      Because besides oil, there are still huge currency debts.
      1. Vadim237
        Vadim237 1 December 2015 10: 08
        +2
        Our national debt now amounts to 56 billion dollars, and to call it huge in comparison with the debts of other more developed countries, the language will not turn.
        1. Eugene
          Eugene 1 December 2015 16: 02
          +2
          Good day to all!
          The fact is that we are not talking about public debt, but about external debt. Include in it the debts of banks and corporations (most likely the main part of them falls to state corporations) ... There the figure is very significant. And talking about low public debt, it’s so, it’s convenient to ride people’s ears.
    4. Vadim237
      Vadim237 1 December 2015 10: 05
      0
      Because the population of other countries is much smaller in territory and population, and their expenses are significantly less than ours. And why is it that in China the average wage is higher than in Russia.
  7. Xarza17
    Xarza17 1 December 2015 06: 33
    +1
    Our government is soon taxing the air. And indignant people will be accused of acting at the direction of the State Department and are the fifth column .. Like truckers ..
  8. parusnik
    parusnik 1 December 2015 06: 46
    +2
    At the moment, forecasts regarding the national currency rate are more like fortune-telling by stars. On the beans one fortuneteller, I would have guessed, but sorry ... died.
  9. anfil
    anfil 1 December 2015 06: 50
    0
    ... as well as the commodity sector, which receives profit in foreign currency and costs incurred in a depreciating ruble.


    The author, but what is it that our MET is tied to the dollar?

    The coefficient characterizing the dynamics of world oil prices (Cp) is monthly determined by the taxpayer independently by multiplying the average price level of Urals oil for the tax period

    Kz = (C - 9) x P / 261,
    (in the edition of the Federal Law from 07.05.2004 N 33-FZ)

    where C is the average price level for the Urals oil grade in US dollars per barrel for the tax period;
    P - the average value for the tax period of the US dollar to the ruble of the Russian Federation, established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
    The average value for the tax period of the US dollar to the ruble of the Russian Federation established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is determined by the taxpayer independently as the arithmetic average of the US dollar to the ruble of the Russian Federation established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for all days in the corresponding tax period.

    The logic of rent extraction should be based on the fact that if an economic entity receives income from the use of natural resources, part of which is not related to its efforts, then this part should be withdrawn in favor of the owner of the subsoil, that is, the state.
    1. Jarilo
      Jarilo 1 December 2015 07: 16
      +3
      If it receives income from the use of natural resources, part of which is not related to its efforts, then this part should be withdrawn in favor of the owner of the subsoil, that is, the state.

      A small clarification: not the state, but the people. The state, in the person of officials, is already overfed with us.
    2. Jarilo
      Jarilo 1 December 2015 07: 16
      +3
      If it receives income from the use of natural resources, part of which is not related to its efforts, then this part should be withdrawn in favor of the owner of the subsoil, that is, the state.

      A small clarification: not the state, but the people. The state, in the person of officials, is already overfed with us.
  10. Jarilo
    Jarilo 1 December 2015 07: 09
    +7
    only at a dollar price of at least 75 rubles can the Medvedev government keep the 2016 budget from collapse.

    Judging by the fact that the Central Bank of Russia buys US government bonds, money from our state is like a fool of a shag.
    1. Hon
      Hon 1 December 2015 09: 02
      +1
      Quote: Jarilo
      Judging by the fact that the Central Bank of Russia buys US government bonds, money from our state is like a fool of a shag.

      Well, they are investing in US bonds, because it is profitable.
      At the civil service, I realized that we have doher money, but the problem is, they are spent in Russian
      1. Jarilo
        Jarilo 1 December 2015 09: 17
        0
        Please clarify the benefits.
        1. Hon
          Hon 1 December 2015 09: 33
          0
          Quote: Jarilo
          Please clarify the benefits.

          benefit in interest rates, which are low but given that they are traded in dollars, which is strengthened especially against the ruble, is a profitable and most importantly reliable investment.
          1. Jarilo
            Jarilo 1 December 2015 09: 47
            0
            I would like to know the specifics: interest rate and inflation.
            1. Hon
              Hon 1 December 2015 10: 00
              0
              differently, about two 2% per annum. What is inflation on the stock exchange? especially in dollars. against the ruble, the dollar rose
              1. Jarilo
                Jarilo 1 December 2015 10: 14
                +2
                Inflation for 2015 1,27% (data from Wikipedia). Total benefit 0,73%.
                Compared to the benefits of lending to the real sector, this is a statistical error.
                1. Hon
                  Hon 1 December 2015 10: 27
                  -1
                  Quote: Jarilo
                  Inflation for 2015 1,27% (data from Wikipedia). Total benefit 0,73%.
                  Compared to the benefits of lending to the real sector, this is a statistical error.

                  Inflation is individual for each country if, in dollar terms, inflation within Russia is negative. In addition to interest, the dollar grew in price, which gave additional profit.
                  1. Jarilo
                    Jarilo 1 December 2015 10: 48
                    +3
                    Inflation is individual for each country if, in dollar terms, inflation within Russia is negative.

                    I have cited inflation data in America.
                    In addition to interest, the dollar grew in price, which gave additional profit.

                    Extra profit in rubles or dollars? I don’t understand, here we have that the state acts as a currency speculator playing against its own currency?
      2. The comment was deleted.
  11. The Sparkle
    The Sparkle 1 December 2015 07: 24
    +3
    It was interesting to read: "(p.) Unfortunately, even
    experts are not aware of the true state
    reserves that are rumored to be plundered
    percussion court officials
    the pace. And this is not counting the support of different
    kind of regimes in the CIS and
    Syrian campaign. Started after
    this inflation and a catastrophic fall
    unpredictable living standards
    political implications. "
    If these experts do not know, are not sure, assume / emphasize the necessary / - what is the accuracy of the price of their forecasts, except for the next horror story "the ruble is falling in price"?)))
  12. sergant89
    sergant89 1 December 2015 07: 26
    12
    Quote: Seneca
    "How long will Putin hammer igil until the oil becomes $ 100 a barrel" And worries about social protests .. what the author of this article is trying to do is not worth it. The main thing is to react to them in time and in the bud ..so as not to be repeated as with long-range truckers who act on the orders of the State Department... In the end, there is an example of the DPRK .. in the 90s there was a terrible famine .. and nothing .. "kimersen" survived. So not everything is so bad and terrible in the future.

    Dalnoboi in your opinion are agents of the State Department? and who then Rotenberg's son who will receive all the cream from the duty? I'll see how your purchasing power will "increase" after the introduction of this tax. And you can also increase the retirement age, introduce the oxygen tax on inhalation-for consumption and exhalation-pollution, maybe It's time for the government to turn to the people, and not to feed the banks and (oligarchs) friends of the cooperative, then the people will go to any hardships understanding the situation and the fact that they will not have to tighten the belt as usual and will not have to turn hard workers into agents of the State Department.
    1. Mera joota
      Mera joota 1 December 2015 07: 33
      +9
      Quote: sergant89
      Do you think the ranks of the agents of the State Department?

      Who is the loudest screaming thief? Who invests our money in US Treasuries?
  13. Mera joota
    Mera joota 1 December 2015 07: 27
    +8
    In fact: the police (whom I know) have recently been warned by management not to spend too much money because salary delays will begin after the new year. In Eastern Siberia and Transbaikalia, public sector employees have been paid only a salary for a long time. There is no chance of improving the situation. Against this background, Plato was introduced ... are there any brains at the top? When will greediness pills run out?
    1. avva2012
      avva2012 1 December 2015 09: 18
      0
      Information is not yet correct. Maybe in the future, it will be so. Stimulating reduced. But at the end of the year, they returned again, and not bad enough. They are trying to cheat with categories, there are rumors that they will remove the district coefficient and the surcharge for harmfulness.
  14. apro
    apro 1 December 2015 07: 30
    +9
    The ruble and the interests of our country, its economy, the interests of citizens are not connected in any way while the Central Bank is oppressing the line in the interests of the Fed and Putin does not react to this in any way.
    1. Mera joota
      Mera joota 1 December 2015 07: 36
      +8
      Quote: apro
      and Putin doesn’t react at all.

      Well enough information to think about. Choose your options:
      1. Agent and puppet of the US State Department
      2. The fool is not able to add 2 + 2
      1. apro
        apro 1 December 2015 07: 41
        -3
        Or not enough strength for a direct confrontation, but certainly not a fool.
      2. anip
        anip 1 December 2015 09: 34
        +5
        Quote: Mera Joota
        Well enough information to think about. Choose your options:
        1. Agent and puppet of the US State Department
        2. The fool is not able to add 2 + 2

        Yes, there are no other options.
    2. Gardamir
      Gardamir 1 December 2015 08: 31
      +6
      Putin does not react to this at all.
      I found it on the Internet and I quote "Putin does not delve into all these matters, he only approves or disapproves; he permits, instructs, listens and nods and it costs him nothing (except that sweat on his face from diligence to make a penetrating look).

      I approved the Vostochny cosmodrome and things went on as usual, that is, very badly.

      He has the mind to pretend to be an administrator for all good deeds, and for bad deeds, he has the mind to not shine.
      An assistant or a confidant comes to him and asks for money for a good job, and he always gave as much as he pity - there was always enough money until recently. This is the trusted circle that managed Putin's finances.

      Putin's finances, more and more cut, were spreading throughout the country - this was and is the government of Putin. Some people think that this is how the country should be governed and that Putin is a rare manager sent by fate, such a strong business executive who cares about every penny of the people. . With such a manager and people, grace and the country flourishes! "
    3. Vadim237
      Vadim237 1 December 2015 10: 12
      -3
      Only now, 90 percent of the Central Bank’s revenues will go to the state budget and the Fed does not have any interests here.
  15. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 1 December 2015 08: 21
    18
    Yesterday, at the environmental summit, Putin boasted that Russia, they say, exceeded the norms for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 30% and thereby "delayed" the onset of "global warming" by as much as 1 year. However, if you "turn on the brains", then these words speak of the verdict for the entire Russian industry and they show the entire "depth" to which this industry has "fallen" in recent years. Considering that no one in Russia, even thought to be engaged in any kind of reduction in the emission of "greenhouse gases", we can state the fact that this reduction in their emissions by 30% occurred "automatically" due to the fact that in the last Over the years, some enterprises have closed altogether, others have reduced production, and in general, industry has reduced production by these same 30%. Therefore, the real drop in production in Russia is 30% or more, and not the mythical "Rosstat" 2%.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 1 December 2015 10: 19
      -4
      "The industry has fallen" - and you can provide the figures of those that were closed and those that were opened - we have a lot of production that work without emissions at all.
      1. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 1 December 2015 12: 23
        +2
        Quote: Vadim237
        we have a lot of production which work without any emissions.

        Well, yes - officials and managers do not emit anything other than alcoholic exhaust ....
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 1 December 2015 16: 50
          0
          We are generally talking about industry, not about officials.
    2. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 1 December 2015 12: 21
      +8
      Quote: Monster_Fat
      Yesterday, at an environmental summit, Putin boasted that Russia allegedly exceeded the standards for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 30%

      good I looked yesterday and spit, especially when I was talking about the preservation of forests. The forest was close to hysteria - they didn’t burn it out, the business forest remained only in places inaccessible to technology .. and in reserves ... Well, about the contribution of our industry to the Kyoto agreement 10 more ice and even more contribution will be, since the managers do not emit greenhouse gases .. and the industry will die ...
  16. Belousov
    Belousov 1 December 2015 08: 29
    +5
    In general, the article is correct, although it lacks specifics. It is clear that the government, with Putin's approval, is only interested in cutting the budget. As Nabiullina and Siluanov already cried, the stabilization fund will end in 2016, and they will have nothing more to cut. Those. instead of thinking about how to effectively fill the budget (not by raising taxes, since this is not effective filling), these "figures" can only cut and take away. Further devaluation of the ruble plays into the hands of exporters, everything was correctly described here - income in foreign currency, expenses in rubles. My subjective amateurish opinion is that we will make it to the presidential elections (so as not to destroy the GDP rating), we will safely "re-elect" Putin, we will even hold the World Cup, but then an increase in the retirement age and the introduction of new taxes and cuts in social programs and much more will begin. interesting ...
    1. Gardamir
      Gardamir 1 December 2015 08: 49
      +8
      hereafter, the increase in the retirement age and the introduction of new taxes and the reduction of social programs and much more interesting things will begin already ...
      that is why I propose voting for the Communist Party. both in 2016 and in the presidential election. Someone will say that the Communists got it and they destroyed the USSR. Wait a minute, all former members of the CPSU are now in the Kremlin
      1. avva2012
        avva2012 1 December 2015 09: 23
        +4
        As an option, it may be worth voting for the Communists in the elections to the State Duma. Power is usually harmful, without competition. Plus, the possible creation of a coalition government. As for the presidential election, I do not agree. The president is a symbol. Zyuganov on such a symbol is unlikely to pull.
      2. anip
        anip 1 December 2015 09: 30
        +7
        Quote: Gardamir
        Wait a minute, all former members of the CPSU are now in the Kremlin

        That's right, those communists who ruined the USSR, right now in the Kremlin and in the presidents.
      3. Vadim237
        Vadim237 1 December 2015 10: 23
        +1
        One of these Communists already rules in the Oryol Oblast - another one with a criminal past.
    2. anip
      anip 1 December 2015 09: 32
      +4
      Quote: Belousov
      My subjective amateurish opinion is that we will make it to the presidential elections (so as not to destroy the GDP rating), we will safely "re-elect" Putin, we will even hold the World Cup, but then an increase in the retirement age and the introduction of new taxes and cuts in social programs and much more will begin. interesting ...

      Quite right, I’ve been talking about this for a long time, especially since then Putin will certainly have nothing to lose, row with both hands, and don’t interfere with his entourage to rob (and now it doesn’t interfere, but then the “fun” will begin in general).
  17. Seneca
    Seneca 1 December 2015 09: 10
    -3
    Quote: Gardamir
    hereafter, the increase in the retirement age and the introduction of new taxes and the reduction of social programs and much more interesting things will begin already ...
    that is why I propose voting for the Communist Party. both in 2016 and in the presidential election. Someone will say that the Communists got it and they destroyed the USSR. Wait a minute, all former members of the CPSU are now in the Kremlin

    The "impassable" Zyugan .. despite all the failures in the elections .. still does not let the party out of his hands. Imagine if he was elected at 96 belay We still would not get rid of him smile
    1. anip
      anip 1 December 2015 09: 29
      +6
      Quote: Seneca
      The "impassable" Zyugan .. despite all the failures in the elections .. still does not let the party out of his hands. Imagine if he was elected at 96 We still would not get rid of him

      Well, now for 16 years we cannot get rid of Rutin. Better, or what?
    2. Greenwood
      Greenwood 1 December 2015 18: 01
      +2
      Quote: Seneca
      Imagine if he were chosen in 96. We still would not get rid of him
      It wouldn’t be worse, definitely.
  18. anip
    anip 1 December 2015 09: 28
    +6
    Side effects such as stress and impoverishment of the population, the team of sovereign husbands are of little concern: as independent economists tell us, only at a dollar price of at least 75 rubles, the Medvedev government can keep the 2016 budget from complete collapse.

    But what about Putin? Glory to Putin!

    What can theoretically support the ruble? In the short term, this, of course, is a cold winter in Western Europe and the US East Coast, which will cause increased demand for energy.

    Of course, of course, the Russian economy has "gotten off its knees" so much that it mainly depends on the prices of raw materials.

    In the near future, three important circumstances will put pressure on the ruble: a falling economy, lower oil prices and a government policy that seeks to plug holes in the budget with a landslide devaluation.

    But what about HPP? Where does the guarantor himself look and what does he do?
    1. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 1 December 2015 12: 29
      +3
      Quote: anip
      Where does the guarantor himself look and what does he do?

      You don't like everything .. laughing Look at what kind of war you started in Syria, look and rejoice .. mass options from the third world to quite local with the Turks, what kind of rupee and inflation there is - solid strategy and geopolitics .. wassat
      You cannot be carried away by such beautiful pictures alone ... when we defeat world evil with two squadrons .. laughing
  19. olimpiada15
    olimpiada15 1 December 2015 10: 21
    +2
    It’s time for the people to unite. Many people feel sorry for the USSR, so it is necessary to introduce into the economy an element of management from that period.
    Unite in consumer cooperatives.
    In private farms, more products can be produced. But private owners have no time to sell, and the products are perishable. It is necessary at the level of rural settlements to collectively discuss how much agricultural products can be produced. And in the city go to the advice of veterans who can help in the sale of products. In consumer cooperatives there were members, then they contributed 5 rubles each, now you can make 10000 rubles. Contributions will be enough to initially build this chain. A quick seasonal turnover will still provide some amount sufficient to organize the processing and storage of seasonal products. It is important that the first stage can be carried out in one season. In the future, you can create small enterprises for the production of not only food, but also other goods — the same clothes, shoes. In cooperatives, construction and repair teams can be included. The initial goal is to provide the population with local food products that will be better than imports (transportation within the region), will remove the dependence on politics. The main thing is to exclude admission to this network of retailers and banks, which are the main sources of price increases for products. At the next stage, regional networks should form a common network within the country, because only certain regions can supply the same sea fish. A network of cooperatives must operate under the certificate of one manufacturer, i.e. only intranet products should be delivered to the shelves of a cooperative network. A network of cooperatives should unite a common bank, but it should not be a commercial burglar, it should be a settlement center that performs operations on behalf of it and has no right to independently manage the funds of depositors accumulated in the bank.
    And most importantly, you need export earnings. The resulting currency must be used for the purchase of Russian energy carriers, then the robbery by financial speculators of that part of the population that will be included in the mass cooperative movement will come to an end.
    In general, the theoretical mechanism that I have expressed should serve the achievement of the following goals:
    1) Providing the population with food and essential goods of Russian origin
    2) Establishing fair prices for goods for manufacturers and buyers
    3) Providing employment primarily to the rural population and achieving an acceptable standard of living
    4) To exclude the influence of speculators of all stripes on the standard of living of the population
    5) To stabilize the domestic political situation,
    6) To grow a popular elite that can defend the interests of the population, not speculators.
    I do not think that what I have written is some kind of truth, but ideas worthy of comprehension by those who want to stop the mockery of the people of speculators, acting without regard to the interests of the country. It is necessary to develop some kind of protection mechanism, because no people, no country.
    In light of recent events, a tax on truckers is a huge amount of money, 25% of which will go to a private person who will repair the roads with this money and make them paid for everyone. People are forced to pay in order to pay more then and always. Fabulous riches to one loafer and poverty to the population. Somehow I don’t want to take it calmly.
    1. Gardener91
      Gardener91 1 December 2015 10: 40
      +3
      Yeah and nationalize the central bank, rewrite the Constitution and disperse the economic bloc of the Government.
      1. I am Russian
        I am Russian 1 December 2015 17: 32
        +2
        Quote: Gardener91
        Yeah and nationalize the central bank, rewrite the Constitution and disperse the economic bloc of the Government.


        Ask yourself a question. Why GDP didn’t nationalize the Central Bank?
        1. Gardener91
          Gardener91 1 December 2015 20: 30
          0
          Quote: I-Russian
          Quote: Gardener91
          Yeah and nationalize the central bank, rewrite the Constitution and disperse the economic bloc of the Government.


          Ask yourself a question. Why GDP didn’t nationalize the Central Bank?

          It would be more correct: Rewrite the Constitution, nationalize the central bank, disperse the economic bloc of the Government.
      2. serg2108
        serg2108 1 December 2015 19: 29
        +1
        good idea i'm for fellow laughing
    2. jaroff
      jaroff 1 December 2015 17: 06
      +1
      I will add. In each summer cottage cooperative, set up a small plant for processing surplus crops on shares. Fruits and berries. Especially apples and plums in the middle lane. Yes, you understood me correctly. With a bottling shop. Good fruit and berry wine and stronger drinks obtained by distillation of excess crops.
      But they won’t give it! Let the crop rot in the pits!
      1. Gardener91
        Gardener91 1 December 2015 18: 38
        0
        Because importing is more profitable than distributing your own, for example, food products. Where do we have our own food and commodity exchanges working on our own domestic market? Power-owning servants of the people have huge incomes from imported products and, of course, they don’t leave the budget without contributions to in the form of import customs duties and sales taxes, and now also transport from long-distance fighting. But you can’t cut off the domestic producer with preferential loans and wool, because they are fine-fleeced.
        1. olimpiada15
          olimpiada15 1 December 2015 18: 49
          +1
          Why rely on exchanges? The people need to unite. She wrote that regarding sales they will contact veteran retirees first, they will help in the implementation, the sociability of the elderly is the best advertising, then people will swell, there will be regular customers. Nobody wants to buy Chinese chemistry and there’s nothing to buy any GMOs.
      2. olimpiada15
        olimpiada15 1 December 2015 18: 40
        0
        What do you mean they won’t give? Yes, the necessary documents will need to be done, the hours of implementation will have to be respected, there is no reason to ban.
        Yes, you are the only one who read my comment. We are talking about the fact that it is necessary to produce food locally. It will be healthier than the one that was transported for months, produced in no one knows where, when growing pesticides and other prohibited substances were used, there is no control over all this. People eat the devil knows that, is sick and poisoned. Therefore, the idea expressed by me can be realized. Such products will not be more expensive than those that were brought from afar, passed through the hands of dealers, the price of which includes interest on bank loans. People are more willing to buy domestic, local, but in the same market under the guise of a local they sell mainly imported. Therefore, I say that there should be a cooperative-producers, a network of cooperatives-the exchange of goods between cooperatives as a guarantee of the receipt of imported chemicals. And most importantly, security will appear - the price of the goods will not depend on dealers, there will be demand. I can’t grow vegetables myself, but I would prefer to buy local, and I would pay a fee to join a cooperative. And most importantly, such a movement would reliably provide food for the population with low incomes. I think everyone understands that for the current business, no import substitution is possible.
  20. Gardener91
    Gardener91 1 December 2015 10: 34
    +4
    The crisis, sanctions, embargo, falling energy prices and other delights of the present moment lead to a fall in the ruble, an increase in inflation, a rise in the cost of living of the population. There is such a nuance as bringing the Russian Federation to a single European pricing policy. And not only in the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, for example. But with all this, the profitability of the population is not taken into account, and prices in the media are increasingly drawn in euros, advertising of goods on TV. So can we formally become a part of the EU and a policy of a kind of "soft" integration is being pursued?
    1. olimpiada15
      olimpiada15 1 December 2015 12: 07
      +4
      Quote: Gardener 91 So maybe we are formally becoming part of the EU and a policy of a kind of "soft" integration is being pursued? [/ Quote

      Yes, they make us a raw materials appendage of the West. The country in which the population will live in the form of a low-paid labor force in the amount necessary to ensure the supply of energy to the West. Russia is gently destroyed, using the pro-Western elite, which conducts a population degeneration course, for which conditions are created that exclude the development of the economy.
      And we are not the only ones, Ukraine caved in to the west before losing sovereignty in 1,5 years and it has no chance of survival.
      [/ comment-show]
  21. kit_bellew
    kit_bellew 1 December 2015 11: 48
    +4
    Quote: Gardamir
    hereafter, the increase in the retirement age and the introduction of new taxes and the reduction of social programs and much more interesting things will begin already ...
    that is why I propose voting for the Communist Party. both in 2016 and in the presidential election. Someone will say that the Communists got it and they destroyed the USSR. Wait a minute, all former members of the CPSU are now in the Kremlin


    Well, suppose not all former members of the CPSU. But yes, yes: a huge percentage of current leaders are the former nomenclature of the CPSU Central Committee. And to vote for the Communist Party (like anyone else) is pointless. Firstly, Zyuganovites express the interests of the people only as long as they are in opposition. I doubt very much that anyone will allow them to nationalize the economy bloodlessly, only by legislative measures. And in the end we will get either the next "national traitors" who, they say, promised but did not, or the second October 93, because the current communist is not like a Bolshevik a century ago: he has neither a Mauser nor an armored car, no Latvian riflemen, no sailor Zheleznyak. There is not even a revolutionary cruiser Aurora with a blank shot.
    1. Gardamir
      Gardamir 1 December 2015 15: 00
      +3
      I agree, but what needs to be changed is undeniable. And while for me it is better to risk entrusting to the Communists than to leave openly anti-people power.
  22. sergant89
    sergant89 1 December 2015 12: 19
    +3
    And here's another "great" piece of news:
    Former Minister of Finance and the head of the Committee of Civil Initiatives (OIG) Aleksey Kudrin may go to work in the Presidential Administration in order to carry out economic reforms, according to Gazeta.Ru, citing its sources.
    We are waiting for an increase in the retirement age and other "ivies" from the "guru" of the economy, there are no more economists in the country.
    1. Jarilo
      Jarilo 1 December 2015 12: 36
      +4
      Make him some kind of simulator, let him train on cats.
  23. tacet
    tacet 1 December 2015 13: 52
    0
    Apparently, we live with the author of the article in several different countries. Well, I do not see a "catastrophic drop in the standard of living." I am a builder (not Moscow) and if you look back at 2008 (when there was no paid work at all for 6 months, and then the year was seasonal), in general, there is a fairy tale - there is work, money goes (not great, but still), the development of the company has slowed down but it goes. Prices have risen, but not critical (the grocery basket has not changed, with the exception of a couple of three sanctions positions), at least I can afford everything that was in 2013. Yes, competition has increased, the budget gives ridiculous prices, but who makes you work with him? Of the entire circle of acquaintances, only two are experiencing a crisis, and not some difficulties - 1) The owner of a small investment office and 2) A colleague of a builder who has worked only with a budget for the past 10 years.
  24. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 1 December 2015 14: 31
    +3
    Laws exist for the poor, the rich have their own lawyers, prosecutors and judges.
  25. Governor
    Governor 1 December 2015 14: 35
    +2
    I will vote for the Communist Party ... We must try
  26. Gardamir
    Gardamir 1 December 2015 15: 16
    +3
    A kind of rating. number of discussions on VO. So the fate of Erdogan is more worried about VO visitors than the political weight of the ruble. Why then worry about the Erdogans, we will win again, but the economy, education, agriculture and the "Plato" system, we are not interested.
    It turns out that we "sing in chorus".
  27. Massik
    Massik 1 December 2015 17: 52
    +1
    Close the border to a large iron lock, we cook a little "in our own juice" - there will be nowhere to go, everything will have to be fixed.
  28. Denis Skiff
    Denis Skiff 1 December 2015 18: 33
    +2
    Quote: anip
    Quote: vladimirZ
    The main thing is a change in economic policy, the resignation of the liberal Government of D. Medvedev.

    Well, of course, Putin has nothing to do with it, right?

    Do not piss in compote! Break through
  29. mivail
    mivail 1 December 2015 22: 42
    +2
    Quote: Vadim237
    We are generally talking about industry, not about officials.

    What kind of industry is it? After the collapse of the USSR, only oil production remained in the interests of the West and the defense industry in the interests of the military-industrial complex. The people have existed for 24 years by themselves, and they continue to exist. What assortment of goods was produced in the USSR and what the Russian "industry" produces, compare, and those who are staring that everything was bad should spit in the brazen face.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 2 December 2015 01: 21
      0
      Why are you - behind the times, go here http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/?id=64