The origins and meaning of Turkish provocation
In the early spring of 2014, when Crimea was already Russian, and the civil war in Ukraine was just beginning, and it seemed to many that the worst could be avoided, I happened to notice in several articles and comments that the actions of the US and the EU in Ukraine have all the signs of provocation whose obvious goal is to involve Russia in the war. Then I said that if someone wants to force someone to fight, then sooner or later he will do it, the only question is when and how.
Since then, almost nothing has changed, except for one moment - rates have risen. In the spring of 2014, the US and the EU together pulled Russia into a war in Ukraine, hoping that they would tie up Russian resources there, and they themselves would perform at a convenient time, in a convenient place and easily achieve a geopolitical win.
Now we are talking about the fact that the United States, in an attempt to involve Russia in an unfavorable war for it, is ready to sacrifice its allies from the EU and NATO.
The official version and not very
It was here that the Turkish provocation was born. I have no doubt that this is precisely a provocation prepared in advance.
I can still believe that the professional operators of the Turkish media accidentally found themselves in a place from which they could best attack the Russian bomber and accidentally aimed their lenses at the right point, at the right moment. Anything can happen.
But the official version of the events presented by the Turkish authorities irrefutably confirms both the provocative nature of the actions of the Turkish Air Force fighters and the fact that the decision to organize a provocation was taken by the country's top officials.
Turks can not deny that the plane fell on Syrian territory. They also shot and published by them recorded that the plane collapsed immediately after being hit by a rocket. That is, this is not the case when it can be said that, they say, they hit him right under Ankara, he just flew for a long time before he fell. So, even if the plane violated the airspace of Turkey, it would have lasted for some seconds, and the strike on it was delivered when it was definitely in the airspace of Syria.
Such a blow after it could be partially justified if the Russian bomber struck at Turkish territory and immediately flew back abroad. But this was not, and the second intersection of the air line is difficult even to accurately fix.
However, according to the official version of Ankara, the Turkish Air Force warned the Su-24 crew ten times within five minutes that it was not flying there, and only then it was shot down. And they managed to get the sanction of the prime minister - Ahmet Davutoglu said that he personally gave the order to attack the bomber.
It is clear that the Turks were counting on a completely definite informational reaction of the West when the EU countries and the USA, despite the facts, accept the anti-Russian version, even if it is refuted by the facts.
When it turned out that the West was critical of the Turkish position, that neither NATO nor the EU could achieve an unequivocal support for Ankara, that the US would not act independently (without Europe), Erdogan tried to modernize the version. In the new version, the aircraft was in Turkish airspace from 7 to 17 seconds, and was shot down before it was determined by its type and nationality.
Ends meet in Turkish versions now do not converge at all. The pilots did not know whom they shot down, and the Turkish General Staff immediately announced that a Russian bomber had been shot down. The premiere is informed that they are going to destroy some unknown aircraft - and he immediately gives the go-ahead, even though Russia, the USA, France and even Canada are flying in the region. No only IG planes. The most important thing is to raise the fighters, warn 10 once, get the prime minister's sanction and shoot down the plane, according to Erdogan, the Turks have time for no more than 17 seconds.
In general, they were preparing a provocation, counted on one of its information and political support, got another and were confused. The main thing is that Putin said that the Russian bomber had never crossed the border of Turkey. The President of Russia cannot err in publicly assessing the situation that could lead to a military conflict between Russia and the NATO country. He is not Erdogan.
Who commands the parade
Ask yourself a question. Could the Turks go on a similar provocation, without coordination with senior partners? If it were a question of a spontaneous decision in a critical situation, I would say that Erdogan and his team are able to make ill-considered confrontational decisions. But we have already noted that the provocation was prepared ahead of time. It was not action in the heat of passion. It was a cold-blooded and planned murder.
Ankara, like Tbilisi in 2008, relied on the protection of the United States and NATO. The Turks had more grounds than Georgians - yet Turkey is a NATO country. But the result was the same. The United States stepped aside and pretended that they had nothing to do with it. Erdogan rushed about, but it was too late.
Now, many experts are discussing how Russia will close the sky of Syria with the C-400 complex, arm the Kurds and defeat Turkey (not immediately, but soon). I think that talking about tough measures is premature. Yes, the air defense of the group will be strengthened, and aircraft that pose a potential threat to Russian aircraft can be shot down. Yes, Russia will try to take the sky of Syria under tighter control. Yes, tacit economic sanctions against Turkey have already begun to act. But with regard to who will be arming whom, how and against whom, we must still wait and think.
Of course, the assessments of the President of Russia, who called Ankara’s actions “a backstab” and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, who accused Turkey of aiding terrorists, are unprecedentedly tough for modern Russia and are obliged to take concrete measures. But in order that the measures do not prove to be beneficial to your enemies, it is also necessary to figure out who and why Fraud Erdogan was substituted.
And Erdogan framed. He was persuaded to attack the Russian armed forces (to commit an act of unprovoked aggression, giving rise to a military response) and was thrown alone with fate.
A country that could give Erdogan such guarantees that would convince him to attack the Russian videoconferencing can only be the United States (the rest can not guarantee anything when it comes to Russia).
In the year 2014 in Ukraine, the United States could expect Russia to react to the coup and the beginning of the civil war according to the Georgian scenario and send troops.
But in 2015, in Syria, Washington clearly could not count on Russia's spontaneous reaction. Moscow couldn’t start a war with Turkey simply because it’s necessary first to take out tourists, then create and deploy a group capable of defeating the weak Turkish army, providing logistics (including for Syria, due to the inevitable closure of the straits in the event of war) ) and only then proceed to action. All this requires more than one week of time, really - two or three months, at least, or even six months or a year.
Consequently, the United States did not count on a spontaneous conflict between Russia and Turkey. Just as they hardly expected that the EU and NATO would be seriously impressed by the awkward Turkish lies and rush to save Ankara from Moscow.
But Washington is actively trying to play with the Kurds. Kurds dream of Kurdistan. Kurdish territories in Syria and Iraq already enjoy sufficiently broad autonomy. In Iran, the Kurds are much smaller, and the problem is not so acute. But under the control of Turkey is about 50% of the territories of potential Kurdistan, in its own territory lives from 40% of Kurds (and now, taking into account refugees, it may already be 60%). Turkey is the only country leading the war against the Kurds for several decades, and in the territories of Syria and Iraq too. The plans of Ankara and Washington regarding the Kurds diverge diametrically.
Washington cannot openly oppose its NATO ally and publicly support the forces fighting for the dismemberment of the Turkish state. But now Kurds rushed to ask weapon, financing and support from Russia, hoping that Moscow will easily agree to help the enemies of its enemy.
And the Turks do not like not only the Kurds. Armenians remember not only the 1915-1917 genocide, but also the Turkish blockade of Armenia in connection with the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. And they certainly remember that the Great Armenia under Tigran II the Great went out to the Black, Caspian and Mediterranean seas, and the Armenian kingdom in Cilicia existed until the 1515 year. Yes, and the Greeks did not forget the massacre massacre, nor did they lose the desire to return Constantinople. That is, there will be enough people willing to participate in the partition of Turkey, and all of them will come to Russia with a request to help their just struggle.
Everything is just beginning
The destabilization of Turkey is not in Russia's interests. But turning it into a branch of the IG is even worse. So it’s possible that someone will have to help restore historical justice. For example, today, many in Russia, the establishment of the Greco-Armenian border in Asia Minor would be perceived as a blessing, although it is far from the fact that Greece restored within the borders of Byzantium from the time of Basil II or returned to the borders of Tigran II Armenia would be reliable partners for Russia. And the views of the United States on Kurdish statehood make one wonder at all who might actually be the main beneficiary of the Russian-Turkish confrontation.
In general, I can repeat that once the task of drawing Russia into a war is worth it, the provocations will continue. From whom to expect the next (from Turkey, Ukraine, the Balts) is unknown. However, in terms of the specific Russian-Turkish crisis caused by the attack on a Russian plane, this is still only beginning. Tourists will leave Turkey, economic ties will be cut off, the Foreign Ministry will still require an apology. The question may still consider the UN Security Council. And more will go to Moscow for money and weapons walkers from all those who are not averse to finally resolve the Turkish issue.
We have time to make a decision on how to respond to provocation by Ankara, so that we can observe our own interests and it was not for anyone to try again. In the meantime, Russia has already used the situation to strengthen its position in Syria. After the implementation of the intentions voiced by the General Staff, Shoigu and Putin to completely close the sky of Syria with Russian air defense systems and increase the number of fighters based on Hamim, permission to fly in Syrian airspace will have to be asked to both French and Americans, and everyone who will fly there. Just to not accidentally be taken for "an aircraft that carries a potential threat to Russian aircraft." And it is unlikely that Turkey will be able to continue to actively participate in the Syrian settlement.
But we are only at the beginning of the process. We have not escaped the war, only postponed it. And the trick is that in the current conditions, for Erdogan (provocation from Su-24, he seriously undermined his domestic political positions, and Turkey’s positions in the international arena), the war may be the best way out of the possible. If he does achieve a war with Russia, the problem will come to another level. NATO will have to decide on its future fate, and inside Turkey Turkey will count on the consolidation of society to repel the enemy. For him, it is extremely risky, but the way out. As for Poroshenko risky, but the only way out is to resume the war in the Donbass.
If Erdogan and Poroshenko manage to agree on concerted actions, then the US dream can become a reality - Russia will face the prospect of simultaneously drawing into a military conflict with Ukraine and the NATO state (Turkey).
So no need to wait from the Russian leadership for simple linear solutions. The situation on the world chessboard is becoming more complicated. The United States is sacrificing more and more new allies. Sooner or later, the victim will have to accept. This is best done in time.
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