Military Review

War and peace in the 21st century. Is there a “casus” - no “bellie”, or is the impression deceptive? ..

30
Russian-Turkish war 1768-1774 Ottoman Sultan Mustafa III declares war on the Russian Empire, declaring claims to Russia's actions in the Commonwealth. There was a so-called Balt incident, when the Turks staged a pogrom on the Orthodox population of the town of Balta, which turned to Russia for help.


Russian-Turkish war 1787-1791 The reason for declaring war by the Ottoman Empire of Russia is associated with Russia's refusal to fulfill the Turkish ultimatum. The Turks demanded to restore the vassal dependence of Georgia and the Crimean Khanate. Taking advantage of the Russian refusal as a pretext, the Ottoman Empire, not without the moral support of Britain and France, declared war on the Russian Empire.

Russian-Turkish war 1828-1829 In March, 1826 of the year, Emperor Nicholas I, in an ultimatum, demands that Turkey withdraw its troops from the Moldavian principality and Wallachia and recognize Serbia’s internal self-government, which Turkey should have done under the Bucharest 1812 peace treaty of the year. Turkey, which initially declared its willingness to fulfill its obligations, ultimately could not agree to the conditions, and also opposed the full recognition of the independence of Greece. In April 1828, the Turks closed the Bosphorus, which was the formal reason for the start of full-scale hostilities.

World War I. Formal occasion (Casus belli) of the announcement (prior to the official start of the WWI) of the Serbian War by Austria-Hungary: assassination of the member of the extremist group Mlada Bosna by Gavrila Principle of the Archduke (heir of the Austro-Hungarian throne) Franz Ferdinand with his wife, Duchess Sofia Hohenberg, in Sarajevo XNOGN 28 of the year.

World War II. The official reason for the declaration of war by Germany to Poland: the so-called Gleijvitsky incident, he is also Operation Canned. The SS officers, disguised as Polish soldiers, carried out an “attack” on the radio station in Gleijvice (now the Polish city of Gliwice) and broadcast an “anti-German appeal” in Polish. From the statement of Hermann Göring:

The war broke out due to the fact that the Poles carried out an attack on a radio station in Gleijvice.


US-Vietnamese war. Here formal motives overlap one another, complementing each other. The first and main one is “the fight against the spread of the communist threat in Southeast Asia,” the second (more specific, as it is called) are the fake messages of American intelligence that the American destroyer Maddox, "being in neutral waters" and carrying out a "purely peaceful mission", came under fire from North Vietnamese boats. Interestingly, the crew of the American destroyer refuted this data, but at that moment few people were concerned about it ... The US went to invade Vietnam.

Why all this historiographic information? To the fact that recently, apparently, the very coordinate system itself has changed for declaring or entering the war. If, at the time of these, a flashing romance of a monarchical person of one of the states with the mistress of a monarchical person of another state or something like that could have served as a pretext to lead one army to another. Now everything is really different. Ultimatums - there are frank provocations - more than enough, but the world, the essence of which remains the same, has undergone significant and very intricate changes.

War and peace in the 21st century. Is there a “casus” - no “bellie”, or is the impression deceptive? ..


Of course, we will talk about the case that today everyone knows - the Turkish Air Force strike on the Russian Su-24 bomber. The data of the Russian Ministry of Defense suggests that the plane fell in 4 km from the border with Turkey - in Syrian territory, and the attack itself hit the plane while Su-24 was at a distance of approximately 1 km from the hypothetical line of entry into the Turkish air space. The Turks stubbornly assert that the plane “invaded” Turkish airspace, and that they began to “warn” the crew of the aircraft almost from the moment it took off from the Hmeimim airbase, and “mom swear” that they did not know about the military statehood the aircraft.

In any case, something like this would happen "dtsat" years ago - war would not be avoided. The reason for the war on both sides, as they say, is exceptionally perfect. - The Turks declare war on Russia for the fact that a Russian plane “invades” Turkish airspace, Russia declares war on Turkey for the fact that it did not invade anywhere, but was shot down over a third state in violation of all international norms. In general, years ago, endtsya or hundred endtsin back battalions and regiments would have already gone to whip each other on separate fronts with possible connectivity and additional willing to participate in the conflict. Field Marshals would have already moved their armies, considered the need for carts and stuff like that.

But times have changed. War between states became possible only when one state militarily and economically surpasses the other by several orders of magnitude. Moreover, formal occasions are sometimes simply amazing: a stronger and richer state says that a weaker and less well-off state wants to become stronger and richer, then it is demonstrated “by what methods” - something like Powell’s test tube or photos with “Milosevic’s marvels”. A stronger state says that the strong and so, they say, is enough, and therefore "we will not let the state become stronger due to the weakening of the already weak" - and rushed ...

But wars between states whose military potentials do not differ by an order of magnitude or several orders of magnitude have become virtually impossible in the situation of victorious globalization. No, there are, of course, surprising exceptions ... For example, some people in Ukraine seriously believe that the potential of this state is commensurate with the potential of Russia, and that this state really leads a war against Russia. Although, what kind of an exception is this? .. It is just a deformation of consciousness in individual representatives of a neighboring country ...

So, globalization ... As soon as an incident takes place, during which, figuratively speaking, beating muzzles during these times, an analytical brainstorming begins. Brainstorming on the one hand: how many boxes of Turkish tomatoes must be recognized as pesticidal, so that the Turkish authorities have a feeling of guilt for their deeds? Brainstorming on the other hand: how next time to show the Russians that we don’t want them to bomb tank trucks with cheap oil for us? At this moment, the "world gendarme" is declared, and ... introduces sanctions ...

The situation with the attempts of “deep analysis” of the one to whom it would be more profitable not to start the war, and who will lose how much from its beginning, if you still need to start, can be treated as you please. Dartanyansky is “weakness and chewing of snot,” in market terms it is “an opportunity to level global risks.” When the opinion of the first outweighs the second, the second are indignant; when it turns out at the second, the first are not at all delighted. But this seems to be the principle of confrontational relations of the 21st century. Today, no one (or almost no one) is ready for an open military confrontation. Even if one country has a nuclear weapon, and the other is not.

Pocket terrorist groups, grown by some people, as it turned out for some time, for the same “some people” are not a universal tool for achieving goals either - they can be burned out with OFABs, CABs and “Calibers”. But on the other hand, the destruction of cruise missiles by cruise missiles and air bombs does not guarantee that new fodders will not appear in their place, and that their main sponsors will “realize” their mistakes and come with repentance.

Everything, in fact, is simple. This is the world created by the dollar ... The world of global dependence, and in some cases, frank vassalage. And after all, people on the sinful Earth got used to it as they once got used to the idea that the Earth itself stands in the center of the Universe on three elephants. It seems that a change in understanding will come only after the birth of the new Copernicus, Galileo and Giordano Bruno. In the meantime, as diplomats say, serious concerns ...

Just do not think that this is some kind of appeal to return the manner of conduct of a century ago and start a war on any sneeze. Do not rush to extremes. But only, firstly, it was not at all sneeze, and, secondly, it is generally worth considering where the dogma is capable of leading the world around a famous printing press.
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  1. mik0588
    mik0588 27 November 2015 06: 42 New
    16
    The plane was waited and caught. And not one day. Having made the first assumption, we will automatically be forced to do the following. The plan is clearly not limited to a single attack on a single aircraft. The operation that began with the destruction of the Russian Su-24 is simply bound to have a continuation with very serious consequences for the whole world. And the stakes, stakes in this "game" may turn out to be several times higher than it seemed yesterday.
    1. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 27 November 2015 09: 26 New
      +2
      Quote: mik0588
      The plan is clearly not limited to a single attack on a single aircraft.

      Americans are plunging us into the war against Turkey. Here the only way to avoid the development of events is the first to apply nuclear weapons against the Turks, and this is no longer nonsense. The situation is so serious that our people are silent about it. In our city, sirens began to howl, this is a test, but it affects the nervousness thoroughly. In Soviet times, I listened and smiled, but this was in Soviet times, because I knew who the hell would attack us. Now the Americans will do everything possible so that the Turks engage in war. For them, Turkey is a bargaining pawn, it's a pity the stupid Erdogan does not understand that they will erase him into powder. He had stolen, after all, it was no longer sour, and enough for the children and grandchildren, and there was a great chance that everything would be lost right up to life!
      1. anfil
        anfil 27 November 2015 22: 09 New
        +3
        I agree with your feelings, but let's not "pull" nuclear weapons, this is not a weapon for waging war, but an element of deterring idiots behind a puddle.
        "Of course, we zhahn, and more than once! The whole world is in dust! ...
        Let's find another way to "thank", YAO that, bang, and not friends and not enemies, at once there is no one, but we need to hurt like a sore tooth and no one to help.
    2. satris
      satris 27 November 2015 10: 01 New
      0
      And here is the conclusion: ё ... a thread according to Facington - and all world problems are automatically removed.
    3. Boris55
      Boris55 27 November 2015 10: 55 New
      +5
      Quote: mik0588
      The plane was waited and caught.

      That's right. Here are excerpts from yesterday’s speech by Putin:

      "... Look: we informed our American partners in advance about where, when, at what echelons our pilots will work. The American side, which leads the coalition of which Turkey knew about the place and time of our aircraft. And it was there and at that time that we got hit.

      The question is: why did we transmit this information to the Americans? Either they do not control what their allies are doing, or they distribute this information to the right and left, not understanding what the consequences will be. And, of course, we will have to hold fairly serious consultations with our partners on this matter. But air defense systems are in no way directed against our partners, with whom we are fighting terrorists in Syria together ... "

      "... Regarding our aircraft, which the Turkish Air Force allegedly did not recognize, it is impossible, impossible! They have identification marks, and they are clearly visible. These are our aircraft, and not some others, - first.

      And the second one. I have already said and once again I want to say: in advance, in accordance with the agreements with the American side, we transmitted information about where our aircraft will operate, at what echelons, in what place and at what time... We proceed from the assumption that this is a working coalition. Turkey is a member of this coalition and should know that it is the Russian aviation that operates there. What else? What were they going to do if they found out it was an American plane - would they hit an American plane, or what? This is all nonsense! These are excuses. It is a pity that instead of looking into it seriously, deeply, working to ensure that this never happens again, we hear such vague explanations, statements that there is nothing even to apologize for. Well, this is not our choice, this is the choice of the Turkish side ... "
    4. Good me
      Good me 27 November 2015 11: 08 New
      +2
      Quote: mik0588
      The plane was waited and caught. And not one day


      07: 30 27 November 2015
      Erdogan: If a Turkish plane is shot down in Syria, we will respond

      The Turkish leader said that Ankara would consider aggression if a fighter crossing the Syrian border was shot down with the help of the Russian C-400.

      Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in an interview with CNN, said that Ankara would be considered aggression if a Turkish plane crossing the Syrian border was shot down with the help of Russian C-400. According to him, they will be forced to respond to such actions.

      - We would not want to see an escalation of this conflict. The parties that are involved in the conflict and take the side of official Damascus are interested in this, ”Erdogan noted to the journalist’s question about Ankara’s reaction to such a situation. - If our plane is shot down, then such an incident will call us to action. This, of course, is aggression against us, and we have the right to self-defense.

      http://lifenews.ru/news/172082
      You need to shoot down, EXCLUSIVELY, using C-300.
  2. Same lech
    Same lech 27 November 2015 06: 42 New
    +2
    In the meantime, as diplomats say, serious concerns ...


    Yes, I agree ... the modern world order is losing stability ... it is storming pretty well ... and we need to be prepared for any development of events .... contradictions between countries are growing quite quickly ... and there already are like MARX and LENIN ... what will be will be.
  3. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 27 November 2015 06: 55 New
    13
    The peoples have become wiser. Learned to consider their benefits and possible losses.
    All the same, the Turks will have to answer. Otherwise - the loss of face, such insults cannot be forgiven.
    At a minimum, wipe them out of Russian territory. Indispensable, as they say no.
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 27 November 2015 07: 01 New
    11
    where the dogma that the world revolves around a famous printing press is capable of starting up a dogma.

    And to where she had already taken. Political cynicism and double standards have become the norm for the United States and its allies. Guilty of any incident is appointed even before the investigation. The crimes of some (one's own) are impudently covered up and those who are not involved are charged with crimes. You can give examples ad infinitum. And this will continue until the main instigator of what is happening in the modern world dies.
  5. Per se.
    Per se. 27 November 2015 07: 41 New
    +7
    and, secondly, it’s generally worth considering where the dogma that the world revolves around a well-known printing press is capable of leading.
    This is not a dogma, it is a natural consequence of the fact that world capitalism has developed, with its own pole of power, the owner of this pole of power, transnational corporations. USA and England, the countries that are the "metropolis" of this power. We picked up capitalism, became dependent on someone else's rules of the game, where exactly the players on the world exchanges, currency speculators, raise or lower the world economies. Bloodsuckers are bankers, entangling in a web of loan interest, making life-long debtors, entire countries. The dollar has become a gambling chip in the world casino of capitalism, which will always win. Having picked up capitalism, we sat down to play in this casino, according to someone else's rules and someone else's, marked cards. You cannot create a multipolar world, playing by someone else's rules, and a utopia to build a parallel "casino", parallel capitalism, to force the Anglo-Saxon brothers to share with our godfathers-oligarchs. We will continue to be sausage, then "partners" will throw with "Mistral", then "stab in the back" from Turkey, which has always fulfilled the will of its previous owners, the British, at war with Russia. They did not help Syria because of the sanctions, now they are harnessed to fight ISIS (which was created and protected by the States), we are already being forced to distinguish between moderate opposition, in an "alliance" with France, the same US puppet as the rest of Europe. It's time to return to socialism, only this can give an independent policy, a true multipolar world, otherwise, we will shy away, with missed opportunities, wasted time, half-hearted measures, brakes from the selfish interests of oligarchs, be it Ukraine, Syria, Russia itself.
    1. satris
      satris 27 November 2015 10: 03 New
      +2
      And our oligarchs will agree to the return of socialism? That's it ...
  6. parusnik
    parusnik 27 November 2015 07: 46 New
    +9
    It seems to be a child’s poem .. but read on .. the whole political alignment lately ..

    Kumed kittens:
    "We are tired of meowing!
    We want, like a pig,
    Grunt!"

    And behind them and ducklings:
    "We don't want to quack anymore!
    We want, like a frog,
    Croak!"

    The guinea pigs withered:
    - Meow meow!

    The cats grunted:
    - Oink oink oink!

    Ducks baked:
    "Qua, qua, qua!"

    The hens grunted:
    "Krya, quack, quack!"

    Vorobyshk rode
    And the cow moaned:
    "Moo-hoo!"

    The bear came running
    And let's roar:
    "Ku-ka-re-ku!"

    Only zainka
    There was a good thing:
    I did not mew
    And did not grunt -
    Under the cabbage lay,
    In a hint of whimpering
    And little animals unreasonable
    Persuaded:

    "Who is commanded to tweet -
    Do not purr!
    Who is told to purr -
    Do not tweet!
    Do not be a crow
    The cow,
    Do not fly the frogs
    Under the cloud! "

    But the funny animals
    Piglets, cubs -
    They shabby the old,
    The rabbit does not want to listen.

    Fishes walk in the field,
    Toads fly across the sky,

    Mouse cat caught,
    They put me in a mousetrap.

    A chanterelle
    They took matches,
    We went to the sea blue,
    The blue was lit by the blue.

    The sea is burning with flames,
    A whale ran out of the sea:
    "Hey firemen, run!
    Help, help! "

    Long, long crocodile
    The sea was dark blue
    Pies, and pancakes,
    And dried mushrooms.

    Two chickens resorted,
    Poured from the keg.

    Sailed two ruffs,
    Poured from the bucket.

    They resorted to a frog,
    Watered from the tub.

    Stew, extinguish - do not extinguish,
    Pour - do not pour.
  7. Neophyte
    Neophyte 27 November 2015 08: 09 New
    +3
    Humanity is gradually degrading! This is evidenced by the statistics of neurophysiologists: the brain volume of Homo sapiens is decreasing! In biology there is a law of degradation of organisms: adaptation to survival is a parasitism of known organisms, which leads to simplification of functions, that is, only reproduction and nutrition. Nutrition, of course, at the expense of the host carrier. The postulate of the continuous progress of humanity is becoming highly doubtful?
  8. rotor
    rotor 27 November 2015 10: 31 New
    0
    But only, firstly, it was not at all sneezing, and, secondly, it’s worthwhile to think about where the dogma that the world revolves around a famous printing press is capable of leading.


    And yet the author, although he denies this, wants to drag Russia into the war.

    In addition, the author is in a hurry of events and the berries will still be ahead, let's see what happens when Russia shoots down Turkish military aircraft over Syria.
  9. Mantykora
    Mantykora 27 November 2015 10: 56 New
    +4
    Quote: satris
    And here is the conclusion: ё ... a thread according to Facington - and all world problems are automatically removed.

    Are filmed automatically? Oh well ... Just new problems will start. As Diystra said in The Witcher 3: "War does not solve problems, it only creates new ones that will have to be solved by other means."
  10. na76
    na76 27 November 2015 11: 18 New
    +6
    Bored with this "casus belli". You need to understand that there is a reason for declaring war and there is a reason, and more often reasons in a plurality, and these are two different things. And in order for the war to take place, it must have reasons, as well as prospects (or at least the semblance of prospects), and there may be no reason at all, even a formal one, or one can provoke one himself or not bother (see 22.06.1941/XNUMX/XNUMX - where is there a reason?). The question is: are there any reasons today, and most importantly, prospects for Russia for a war with one of the NATO members? if not, then the war will not be unleashed by Russia, even if there are more than enough reasons ...
  11. na76
    na76 27 November 2015 11: 29 New
    +6
    And still remember Karl von Clausewitz? "War is the continuation of politics by other means." Consequently, war is often undesirable, sometimes even the most undesirable option for influencing the enemy. For example, what time from the period of global confrontation with Russia i.e. from 1813 to the present day our Anglo-Saxon friends were in a formal state of war with us? Offhand only during the Crimean war, and always crap ...
  12. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 27 November 2015 11: 32 New
    0
    Insolent, unprincipled contempt for the life of Russian people, a demonstration of this contempt. It turns out that provocations and insults will continue ???
  13. na76
    na76 27 November 2015 11: 47 New
    +4
    Quote: Reptiloid
    Insolent, unprincipled contempt for the life of Russian people, a demonstration of this contempt. It turns out that provocations and insults will continue ???

    Yes, they will continue, and if missile and bomb strikes are not delivered in response, this does not mean that Putin has leaked.
    October 8 1950 in 16.17 local time two US Air Force fighters Lockheed F-80C “Shooting Star” (“Meteor”) violated the state border of the USSR and, going deeper by almost 100 km, attacked the Sukhaja ​​Rechka military airfield in 165 km from Vladivostok, in the Khasansky district. As a result of shelling, seven aircraft of the Soviet squadron were damaged by US Air Force aircraft in the parking lot, one of which was completely burned out.
    And this is only one of the most egregious examples, you can still throw them on. As you know, we didn’t bomb the Americans in response, and what did Stalin merge?
    The truth in this story is one but:
    On October 9, the USSR submitted an official note of protest to the UN. The government of the Soviet Union was greatly concerned. They could not understand - either this is the beginning of the third world war, or the mistake of the pilots.
    On October 20, US President Harry Truman, speaking at the United Nations, pleaded guilty to the United States and expressed regret that the US armed forces were involved in the incident of violating the Soviet border and causing damage to Soviet property. He said that the regiment commander was fired, and the pilots were transferred to the court of the military tribunal, that the attack on the territory of the Soviet Union was "the result of a navigational error and poor calculation" of pilots. And also - that the commander of the aviation unit, which included the F-80, was removed from his post, disciplinary sanctions were imposed on the pilots.

    For order: what is highlighted is taken from http://www.liveinternet.ru/users/4741089/post339710316/, although in general the facts are quite well-known.
    But appreciate the difference in the behavior of the presidents of Turkey and the USA, which in general is not happy
  14. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 27 November 2015 12: 14 New
    +2
    ☆☆☆ Nay 76, Andrey ☆☆☆ !! I never liked these words about Putin, since none of the common people has all the information, and Putin is not obliged to report everything to everyone. Probably, under socialism, when there was no such awareness, many residents did not know about it (what you wrote about )
    It turns out that the population should not experience a feeling of shock and humiliation every time - it must be announced in advance, so as not to hope for a quiet life: Expect provocations and meanness from everywhere. Don't go anywhere - crimes and provocations can be everywhere. "
    Sincerely, until the evening.
  15. na76
    na76 27 November 2015 12: 18 New
    +2
    Quote: Reptiloid
    Expect provocations and villains from everywhere. Don’t go anywhere - crimes and provocations can be everywhere.

    Dmitry, why not ride? Ride, not everywhere but ride, but wait, but wait ... The Israelis live all their lives this way, and they don’t live badly by the way
  16. Peter endo
    Peter endo 27 November 2015 12: 22 New
    +3
    It's time to call a spade a spade: Turkey is an aggressor country that constantly directly or indirectly attacks all its neighbors - Cyprus, Greece, Armenia, Syria, the Caucasus, Kurdistan, Bulgaria, Serbia. The poisonous snake needs to pull out its teeth. Let them trade, receive tourists and enjoy life, not dreaming of the revival of the Ottoman Empire!
    1. aba
      aba 27 November 2015 23: 06 New
      -1
      ... and enjoy life, not dreaming of the revival of the Ottoman Empire!

      Better to be part of the Russian Federation!
  17. Yon_Silent
    Yon_Silent 27 November 2015 13: 45 New
    +1
    "But times have changed. Wars between states became possible only when one state is several orders of magnitude superior to another in military and economic terms. Moreover, formal reasons are sometimes simply amazing: a stronger and more secure state suggests that a weaker and less a secured state wants to become stronger and more secured ... "
    Strong statement! But this is only a statement and no more. Examples from relatively recent history: the Anglo-Argentine conflict over the Falklands (Malvins), the Iran-Iraq war, the same ISIS - in each case the aggressor side was obviously weaker economically and militarily.
  18. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 27 November 2015 13: 48 New
    +2
    No, of course, there are surprising exceptions ... So, for example, some people in Ukraine seriously believe that the potential of this state is commensurate with the potential of Russia, and that this state is really waging a war against Russia.

    More than a year ago, one mamchur already simply and intelligibly explained to the gentlemen intrent-ikspert what the matter is - "America is behind us" and it's true. Only amazing patriot-dreamers can seriously believe that Russia will win Ukraine at any moment. Everyone will have to win, from Krakow to Tokyo, led by America. Over the past 300-400 years, the global coalition against Russia has been organized by the Anglo-Saxons at least once every fifty years, or even more often. The same story is with Turkey, followed by America, so from us they are only threatened by impotent anger and petty bites in the economy.
  19. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 27 November 2015 17: 26 New
    +1
    Quote: nae76
    Bored with this "casus belli". You need to understand that there is a reason for declaring war and there is a reason, and more often reasons in a plurality, and these are two different things. And in order for the war to take place, it must have reasons, as well as prospects (or at least the semblance of prospects), and there may be no reason at all, even a formal one, or one can provoke one himself or not bother (see 22.06.1941/XNUMX/XNUMX - where is there a reason?). The question is: are there any reasons today, and most importantly, prospects for Russia for a war with one of the NATO members? if not, then the war will not be unleashed by Russia, even if there are more than enough reasons ...

    I will add that according to Liddell Garth, the goal of war is a better world, at least from your point of view. In a hot (especially nuclear) war with NATO, Russia cannot achieve such a goal. But in the so-called hybrid options are possible, therefore, as I think, our leadership does not rush with drafts.
  20. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 27 November 2015 18: 51 New
    +1
    I myself used to go only to Finland with my mother or with another good family. The last time was in August 2014. The price of € then increased and it became problematic. I do not like the groans of some of my acquaintances - “what to do?” People used to live somehow. I never wanted to go where it’s hot. money is normalized - then - to Paris. Or to Italy. But the refugees ruined everything.
    I agree with the previous 5 authors: call a spade a spade.
    And I didn’t like the credulity of some of our people Or frivolity, especially if with children. They would go on vacation, barely enough money. What happened - and there is no money to spend normally for 1-2-3 days. Little I often flew and traveled far, with adults of course. It was difficult for the child with money
  21. Bob
    Bob 27 November 2015 21: 53 New
    +2
    1. "... The situation with attempts to" deeply analyze "the one who will be more profitable not to start a war, and who will lose how much from its beginning, if you still need to start, you can treat as you like ..."
    2. "... Today no one (or almost no one) is ready for an open military confrontation. Even if one country has nuclear weapons, while the other does not ..."
    1. There is no doubt that it is not profitable for Turkey or Russia to start a war (economically, politically, militarily), the risks are great and the consequences are unpredictable. 100% of the benefit from the war goes to the world hegemon - the United States, which weaves intrigue and incite 2 sides against each other in order to weaken and bleed the enemy. Seeing that Russia has not gone to war with Ukraine, the United States plays another card - the Middle East. If this map turns out to be "unsuccessful", then they will take up the third direction - Afghanistan-Central Asia-Caucasus. That is, in any case, they will create unpleasant and sometimes desperate situations for Russia, trying to draw Russia into the conflict, and sooner or later this policy could not fail to bear fruit. The US is running out of time. The Americans are not ready to wait for the Ukrainians to "give birth" to the offensive and call for Russian retaliatory measures. Seeing the low motivation of the Ukrainian troops in 3 and the low efficiency of their actions, which ended with the Debaltseve cauldron, the Americans turned on another front for Russia.
    I want to say that the threats of war will remain as long as the main "motivator-initiator" of the war does not abandon his plans. And the Americans have already spoken out on this issue - they are the winners of the Cold War, and do not recognize Russia as a superpower, that is, equal in the right to have sovereignty and independent opinion. In this sense, war is not repulsive.
    To take the pose of an "ostrich", to withstand the "spitting" of American mongrels, including Turkey, means not respecting yourself. If you wipe it off one time, another will follow, and then until the set goals are achieved. Ignoring the threat and not wanting to respond to challenges threatens to cause misunderstanding on the part of people, and disrespect on the part of partners.
    2. Turkey has nuclear weapons provided by the Americans during the Cold War, which, after its end, was never poisoned back to their homeland. At the same time, as a member of NATO, Turkey does not unreasonably hope for the help of allies, including nuclear weapons. Therefore, the question of the equal military capabilities of Turkey and Russia remains open. Here the formula is more likely applicable - the potential of NATO and the potential of Russia. That is why the Turks behave unprincipled and brazenly, because they feel the support of their partners, the Americans in the first place.
    In view of the foregoing, we can most likely assume that the end of 2015- beginning of 2016. It will be a great test for Russia and the world, and Russia has only one way out - to win or be destroyed. So - win!
  22. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 27 November 2015 22: 56 New
    0
    the fact that Turkey behaves suspiciously was evident when stupidly "resisted" because of the Armenian genocide. It suggested that a gas pipeline was not so necessary. And then their behavior was somehow strange. Of course, Putin and Lavrov could not do not see it. And other moments were suspicious.
    Interestingly, how much did we invest in joint projects?
  23. aba
    aba 27 November 2015 23: 09 New
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    and "swear by mom"

    When I heard this from my Caucasian acquaintances, I was 100% sure that I was lying.
  24. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 29 November 2015 08: 13 New
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    Explanations of V.V. Pyakin dated November 25.11. seemed correct to me, yesterday I listened.