The country is making a huge mistake, according to leading analysts: we are not preparing for the wars that have been waiting for us in 15 – 20 years. But even after the Great Patriotic War, when, it seemed, it was possible to rest on our laurels, the USSR worked on breakthrough technologies. And then the backlog allowed the country for 70 years to do without a big war. This was discussed at the II All-Russian Conference of the Association "Analytics" in the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation.
Now Russia is in a similar situation. One must think that it will allow living the next half century without wars. However, there is an illusion in the leadership of the country that it is possible to agree and reconcile with a potential adversary.
“The main object of aggression today is not the army, but the people as the bearer of civilizational and state foundations”
Barack Obama admitted once that the US is not building a multipolar world, but a multi-storey building in which not everyone can find a place. Hence, the population should be reduced. According to Obama, there is the brain of the world (USA), his workshop (PRC) and consumers (golden billion). There is no place for Russia with many other countries.
The opposite point of view is associated with traditional values, the main of which is the right to life, which comes from Christianity and Islam. She is now defended by Russia. The clash is fundamentally. We can not agree. The community will either move to a multipolar world, or slide to the dictates of one country.
Over the past century, the world has passed through three civilizations. The symbol of the first is the hoe, the second is the assembly line, the third is information and high technology. The Soviet Union at the time entered the path of the third, but was destroyed and thrown back many years ago in 1991, which was, as Vladimir Putin said, the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century.
Now Russia is slipping into a second, if not the first, civilization. At the same time, we must manage to counter the threats of the United States and other countries. How to do it, if before the collapse of the USSR, the country's GDP was five GDPs of China, now it is 1 / 5. With today's state of society and economy, Russia is doomed, some experts say. Having such low GDP growth rates, it will gradually turn from a subject of world relations into an object that is easy to manipulate.
Andrei Sedykh collage
The only chance for us is dynamic development, both intensive and extensive. It is clear how important was the return of the Crimea, and the blow to the militants in Syria, with whom they would otherwise have to fight on our land. But the problem is deeper. If you have the perfect weapon, but there is no elite that is ready to give the appropriate order, it is useless to press that button if necessary.
It seems that the West has not realized until the end of what has happened, in connection with which we are waiting for new tests, which will require sharp and unexpected moves in big-time politics. But this is the logic of survival. Churchill somehow caustically remarked that the major powers behave on the world stage as gangsters, and petty ones as prostitutes. Of course, we are not going to imitate in this plan colonial England or the USA, but we will defend our sovereignty by all means.
It is believed that the twenty-first century - the time of supercivilizations, countries with a population of more than 400 million people and GDP over 20 trillions of dollars. Among them, obviously, the United States with its provinces (Canada, Mexico), China, united Europe. As for Russia, even taking into account the Eurasian project, we are too small both in size and in terms of GDP. For us it is crucial to have allies. This is either India with one billion people, or Latin America — above all Brazil, or China.
But integration is being conducted with an eye on the West - suddenly he will return us to his arms. Indian colleagues ask: where is your future project? There is nothing to answer, because we ourselves have not figured out what kind of society we are building, what kind of country we would like to see in 15 – 20 years. And the absence of a transparent strategy for the future is a serious risk factor, including a military one.
We are constantly talking about the need for a multipolar world. But who wants to share their powers and rights with a weak player. Let's face it. The military budget of Russia, according to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, is 83 billion dollars. And China has 216 billions, the US has more than 600 billions, and NATO countries have 950 billions. The ratio of forces and conventional weapons (excluding nuclear) is obtained 1: 6.
“Many factors suggest that we are not ready to conduct serious high-tech wars,” reflects the head of the department of the Institute of Applied Mathematics. M. V. Keldysh George Malinetsky. “We will have to fight with a huge shortage of our own electronic means, including EW.”
Unfortunately there is nothing to boast here. The investments made by the state in Micron, Angstrom, and other plants did not give much result. According to Malinetsky, having recently visited Angstrem, he wondered if the company could make a domestic mobile phone. The answer was: yes, but it will be the size of a parcel box. It turns out that we are still not able to establish even the production of household mobile phones. Where to go further?
“Armaty” of the wrong system
The great Russian scientist Nikolai Kondratyev argued: wars and revolutions are connected with the cyclical nature of economic development, which today is understood as a change in technological patterns. In particular, the beginning of the twentieth century was characterized by a transition from the third to the fourth way. Locomotive industries then acted tank и aviation, heavy engineering, auto industry. Stalin predicted that the future war would become a war of motors, and he was not mistaken in determining the strategic course of the state. Enormous efforts were made to turn a peasant country into an industrial power. This is what predetermined the outcome of World War II.
However, we completely missed the fifth technological structure, where telecommunications and computer, Internet, and mass consciousness management became the locomotive industries. Now, not having the fifth, we have to jump on the running board of the outgoing train of the sixth order, where there are completely different areas of leadership: bio and nanotechnologies, new medicine, full-scale virtual reality modeling, robotics. They will determine the development of mankind, applied in the military sphere. Unfortunately, for the time being we imitate (thanks to “effective managers”) movement in this direction. And in fact, as noted at the conference of the Association "Analytics", we do not deal with these technologies. It is enough to honestly look at our most recent designs of weapons and military equipment - the Sarmat ICBM, the PAK DA, the Armata tank.
“I don’t want to say that projects are unsuccessful, I won’t mention their cost or assert that it is an imitation,” Malinetsky explained his position. - I will ask only one question: what technological structure do they correspond to? At best, the fourth. So, in future wars they will not be able to play any significant role. ”
As Mstislav Keldysh said, the tortoise will overtake Achilles if it moves in the right direction, and Achilles - in the wrong direction. We are, by some estimates, mistaken with the vector, making investments in technologies that will not work in 10 years. And what about the Americans? They are engaged in robotics, genetic engineering, and vehicles that travel 500 – 700 kilometers over rough terrain without human intervention. Moreover, all developments are open, conducted on the basis of competitions. We do not have open competitions or they are formal. We are in the position of Leskovsky Lefty, who said: tell the sovereign that the enemy does not clean the rifle with bricks and we should not. Our partners abroad are already engaged in not industrial equipment, but post-industrial.
Why did we have a nuclear project? Because he was personally engaged in Stalin, kept him in control. But not only the country's leadership then turned out to be ready for this big project. 800 thousand people took part in the creation of the nuclear industry.
After World War II, England lost its status as a world power, and the USSR acquired it. In 1991, Russia fell in development, and China went up. Much, if not all, in such situations depends on the strategy taken by the leadership of status decisions. The START Treaty, which was signed by Presidents Medvedev and Obama in 2010, returns nuclear weapons a decade ago. 4 th Research Institute of the Ministry of Defense and the Institute of Applied Mathematics. MV Keldysh conducted an analysis and independently of each other came to the conclusion: this is most beneficial for China, which in the development of its nuclear forces will catch up with the United States eight years earlier.
Could Americans really sacrifice their national interests for the sake of friendship with Russia? “Not at all,” said Malinetsky. - I am sure that the United States already has something more than nuclear weapons in its arsenal. That is something else, more perfect and more powerful. ”
Indeed, the most dangerous weapon is one that has not yet been used. It is customary to talk about the battlefield, but instead there will most likely be a “city of battle” where the main military operations will move. As demanded the development of new types of weapons and military equipment. This point of view is shared by the senior researcher of the Military Academy of the General Staff, Tatyana Gracheva. The main object of aggression today is not the army, but the people as the bearer of civilizational and state foundations, she said. This generated not only cognitive wars for the minds and souls of the population, but also new types of weapons and military equipment.
New environments where major strikes will be made are bio and nano space. In 2012, the Japanese scientist Sinya Yamanaka received the Nobel Prize for the development of stem cell tissue technology. This means the ability to get parts for a person.
If the aggressor country is technologically higher than the victim by several orders of magnitude, it can lead others - invisible wars. How, for example, were the Americans able to remove Indians from their continent? Very simple - with the help of alcohol (the immune system of the aborigines turned out to be unsuitable for it) and infections.
Imagine that a certain substance (microbes), against which there is no protection, is sprayed over Moscow. We will not even notice this. It is not surprising that one of the most closed and important American programs is to protect their biological space. They believe that by 2022, they will be able to completely eliminate the possibility of such a threat to their country. We do not have anything similar yet, not to mention the fact that Russia in terms of the level of public health has slipped to 124-e place in the world, on the life expectancy of men - to 130-e.
Presidential adviser Sergey Glazyev is convinced that a financial, cognitive, information war is being waged against Russia. As a result, over the past six years, the opinion of the Western population about our country has deteriorated sharply, even before the Crimea. 62 percentages of respondents are good to the USA, 50 percent to China, 34 percent to Russia. If we do not designate our long-term goals, very few people will invest in the Russian Federation, especially to be friends with us.
Even 20 years ago, we said: let's talk to Ukraine not about how good we are, but, for example, about how the Baltic lives after leaving the USSR. But as we did not have, there is still no normal broadcasting to the neighboring state. We arrogantly believed that you could buy everything for oil and gas and lost a country with a population of 45 million. Russia has invested 200 billions of dollars in the corrupt economy of the Square, which the common people of Ukraine never felt. And the Americans - only five billion. But they invested them in ideology and reformatting the mass consciousness of the population, calculated the risks.
In recent years, there has been a sharp leap in the development of biotechnology in the world. The cost of decoding the genome has decreased 20 thousands of times. The next century will be a celebration of biology. Therefore, the problem of import substitution is relevant for us not only in microelectronics.
We overslept a jump in the development of UAVs, although Stanislav Lem still predicted in 1963 that the future was in their hands. And because the most advanced UAVs are in service today, not Russia, but Israel.
When the caravan turns back, the lame camel becomes the first. The reality is that, despite our lag in a number of sectors of the economy, in many others we were the first to become a major energy power. This also applies to the creation of new weapons and military equipment and other products. Sergei Chvarkov, deputy head of the Higher Education and Science Service for Scientific Work, recalled in this connection that setting the tasks for himself, the United States decided on the main thing. They came to the conclusion that it is necessary to get ahead of the enemy in creating control systems, to get around in making decisions, to deprive the ability to independently accept them. And these tasks are being successfully implemented.
“We are oriented towards the West in everything, although we have our own achievements, there are Keldyshes and Lebedevs,” Chvarkov is sure. - The same Lebedev created such computers on the old element base, which are still relevant today, and nothing of the kind has appeared in the world. We have worked out the ideology of creating completely new computers and electronic devices working on fundamentally different principles. But we do not realize it and announce our scientists, who make breakthrough technologies, almost crazy. ”
And if any developments break through to the top, various Western funds immediately appear around them. And where are our Russian? Today, the Military Academy of the General Staff is increasingly confronted with pseudo-scientists, amateurs composing opuses on troop control issues, and evaluations of the effectiveness of combat use of the AMIS. But behind them there is not a single thought, not a single valuable offer. All this speaks of the dying up in the country of the analytical community, the shortage of real specialists.
“We have produced so-called efficient managers who can manage cash flow, but, unfortunately, do not have production issues,” Chvarkov explained his thought. “The accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant occurred largely because in the power industry the very“ effective managers ”turned out to be in leadership positions, for which the main thing was to extract the maximum profit.”
The country urgently needs an all-Russian program of training professionals for leading industries and the defense industry. Our president and commander in chief two years ago raised a question about such specialists. But there is no single program yet. Each corporation prepares for itself staff at its discretion.
Without their own project for the future, without a clear vision of their country for the 15 – 20-year perspective and without people willing to implement a development strategy, it was extremely problematic to survive under conditions of economic sanctions and terrorist threats, the conference participants stated.