It seems that Recep Erdogan seems very poorly aware of the whole history relations between Turkey and Russia: after all, for all the time between our countries there have been at least a hundred and fifty direct military clashes and countless smaller incidents, as a result of which, in most cases, Turkey turned out to be the losing party. In this case, it suffices to recall only those crushing defeats that Turkey suffered only as a result of only Russian-Turkish wars of the 18th and 19th centuries.
One gets the impression that the Turks, like the Germans or the French, cannot or simply do not want to draw the right conclusions from their history of relations with Russia: and, based on this, from time to time they take the next completely unsuccessful attempts to talk with our country solely from a position of strength. However, each time, stepping on the same rake, they get so strong a rebuff from Russia, which makes them sit "at their fifth point" for a sufficiently smooth and long enough time so as not to take rash actions against their powerful eastern neighbor.
What happened in the sky on the Syrian-Turkish border can have far-reaching consequences, and above all for Turkey itself. With a great deal of confidence, we can say that Turkey deliberately took this step, thereby trying to show how important its role in politics in the Middle East is.
However, it seems that the Turkish government and Recep Erdogan personally are constantly playing to raise rates and exacerbate policies towards Russia, unwillingly, have gone over the line of what is permitted, after which all the militant rhetoric is now moving into the plane of open military confrontation with Russia.
One gets the impression that President Erdogan imagines himself to be one of the most omnipotent rulers in the entire history of Turkey, who has the historical mission associated with the revival of the former power of the Ottoman Empire, or if you can say so, “neo-Ottoman empire” that can take a leading place in the emerging geopolitical situations in the modern world.
However, such a policy can be very costly for Erdogan, since an incident with a Russian military aircraft can lead to tectonic changes not only in the Middle East, but also in the whole of Western Europe.
Proceeding from the fact that after the Russian plane was shot down, Erdogan immediately turned to Brussels to the leadership of NATO, this suggests that he is trying to find protection from the North Atlantic alliance, based on the provisions of the 5 article of the NATO Charter, and thus trying to translate the conflict with Russia into the mainstream of confrontation through the Russia-NATO line.
However, Turkey can not count on all-round assistance from NATO, only because the NATO leadership is unlikely to go into direct confrontation with Russia for several reasons.
First, after the terrorist attacks in Paris, NATO refused to help France in the fight against the Islamic state, thereby not taking advantage of the NATO Charter article 5, thereby leaving France alone in addressing the issue of combating Islamic terrorism.
Secondly, France and especially Germany are concerned about the situation that is developing in the South-East of Ukraine, which at any time can lead to the outbreak of hostilities that threaten to lead to a war against Russia in the worst situation, and in this situation in Europe no one interested.
Thirdly, there will be countries in the North Atlantic Alliance, for example, such as Germany, which will not deny themselves the pleasure that Turkey would learn a good lesson, and thereby suffer a kind of punishment, for that stream of refugees, who for the most part poured on the territory of European countries.
Fourth, Turkey will try to find protection from the United States, but here too Erdogan can comprehend a very bitter disappointment. Despite all of its aggressive and belligerent rhetoric against Russia, the Barack Obama administration will not accept an armed confrontation with Russia that is really possible in the current situation, because Obama understands that, in speaking in support of Ankara, Washington will in fact declare war on Russia and in reality it will be signify the beginning of the Third World War, which can simply lead to disastrous consequences ...
In addition, both Barack Obama and the Pentagon leaders are well aware that talking to Russia now from the perspective of ultimatums, and even more so from a position of strength, nowadays simply means committing suicide, especially after what the Russian strategic capabilities demonstrated aviation and the navy, inflicting massive missile and bomb attacks on the positions of the militants of the Islamic state.
Fifth, Turkey has placed itself at the same level with the states that are openly sponsoring terrorism, namely Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which may soon be responsible for their policies aimed at supporting terrorists in the North Caucasus.
For Russia, at present, there is simply an excellent opportunity to radically change the geopolitical situation in its favor, not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe as a whole.
Now Erdogan has actually driven himself into a hopeless situation, because, at best, the Turkish economy will be dealt a powerful blow, in the form of stopping revenues from the tourism business, which each year brought at least 4,5 billion dollars by the most conservative estimates, the export of Turkish agricultural products and no less sensitive blow in the construction industry.
In the worst case, if Turkey takes the path of military escalation against Russia, then the consequences will be disastrous for it, especially if Erdogan closes the Black Sea straits, for Russian ships that supply the grouping of Russian troops in Syria by imposing martial law in the country.
Then it is clear that Turkey will be on the one hand under the possible blow of the Russian air forces located on the territory of Syria, and on the other hand under the blow of the troops of the Southern Military District and the ships of the Black Sea fleet and the Caspian naval flotilla.
However, in the current situation, Russia and Vladimir Putin personally, have a wonderful historical chance not only to radically change the state of affairs throughout the Middle East and in the basins of the Black and Mediterranean Seas, but finally to make the dreams of Catherine the Great and subsequent Russian reality come true. emperors, to establish Russia's control over the Black Sea straits ...