Military Review

Permission to invade

34



The Security Council unanimously adopted the French version of the resolution on countering terrorism in Syria and Iraq. At first glance, the resolution is correct and necessary. However, this resolution has one serious drawback - in fact, this is permission to invade

In the adopted document, the Security Council asks "UN member states to step up efforts to curb the flow of foreign terrorists to Iraq and Syria and to prevent and suppress the financing of terrorism." In addition, the resolution calls on all countries to fight against IS, Djabhat al-Nusra and other organizations associated with al-Qaeda, as well as "to deprive the terrorists of the safe haven that they (the terrorists) created in large parts of Iraq and Syria."

At first glance, the resolution is correct and necessary. If the IS is proclaimed to be universal evil, if the countries of the “civilized world” are going to create an anti-terrorist coalition, then the Security Council should give the go-ahead to create such a coalition. And his current decision will allow a number of countries to join the fight against the IG - in particular, British Prime Minister David Cameron has already announced his intention to join it. Another advantage of the resolution is the focus not only on the military, but also on the financial and logistical aspects of the problem. Using the clause on “stopping the flow of terrorists”, it is possible to exert serious pressure on the same Turkey, through whose territory the terrorists flow into Syria.

However, this resolution has one serious drawback - it can be interpreted as the approval by the Security Council of foreign intervention in Syria and Iraq. Yes, there is no direct reference to the Seventh Article of the UN Charter (direct authorization of the invasion), but it calls for “depriving terrorists of asylum”, and foreign troops may well execute this order. Interestingly, in the Russian version of the resolution, which preferred the French, this moment was taken into account. In the proposed document, Moscow called for coordination of the fight against terrorists with the states on whose territory this struggle is taking place. The West refused to subscribe to such a call - after all, it would mean not only the legitimation of the regime of Bashar Assad (the US and the EU believe that they already made a huge concession, agreeing that the current Syrian president will remain in power for a transitional period), but also a sharp strengthening of the positions of Moscow. Official Damascus delegated to Russia the right to give the go-ahead for the participation of certain forces in the war against the IS in Syria, and in the event of the adoption of a relevant resolution, Moscow could cut off the dangerous, in its opinion, countries. Now she is deprived of such a possibility. Yes, the Kremlin made it clear that they will continue to try to conduct their resolution through the Security Council, but the chances of success are slim. Especially after the adoption of the French resolution, which seems to have closed the question.

Of course, everything depends on how this resolution will be further implemented. If the collective West, as well as the countries of the Middle East hostile to Bashar al-Assad, consider it only as a formal document adopted for a tick, then the harm from it will be minimal. If this resolution is positioned as a kind of approval and legitimation of the air war against the Islamists, then, in principle, nothing terrible will happen either. Yes, these actions will strike at the legitimacy of the Syrian authorities, but the United States and Europe are still bombing terrorists without asking permission from the government in Damascus. The only real disadvantage may be the increased risks of military clashes between Russian and Western troops (when American or European aircraft decide to bomb the wrong ones, in response to what they risk being shot down by Russian air defense weapons). That is why Moscow is making so much effort to establish coordination between the military departments.

At the same time, it is possible that some states, under certain circumstances, may regard this resolution as a justification for a ground invasion, and start it. It is unlikely that such a step will be decided by the Americans or the Europeans. The White House does not need a new Iraq during the election campaign, besides the Americans are trying to use the forces of the Kurdish militia for a hired operation. The Europeans (in particular, the French) will not go to war in Syria because they had enough of Libya. Recall that the joint operation of European countries against the army of Gaddafi (which has less capabilities than the Syrian militants from the IG) almost ended in failure and political fiasco of the level of the Suez crisis. In addition, all the adequate experts and politicians are aware that the military operation of Western countries will be just a gift for the IG. Radical Islamists will talk about a “new crusade”, and will gather thousands of new recruits under their banners.

But Turkey or Saudi Arabia can decide. Perhaps, Ankara will want to solve the problem of the Syrian Kurds in this way (which can gain wide autonomy in Syria and thereby threaten the territorial integrity of Turkey), and Riyadh will “reset” the situation that is hopeless for him in Syria. Yes, Saudi Arabia already has the Yemen war, yes, they are being held back by the Americans. However, it must be understood that the defeat in Syria (which will be understood as the preservation of the current Syrian regime and the continuation of Damascus’s orientation towards Tehran) will have extremely serious consequences not only for Saudi foreign policy, but also for domestic. And to prevent these consequences, the Saudis can take the most radical steps.
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http://expert.ru/2015/11/22/vtorzhenie/
34 comments
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  1. SS68SS
    SS68SS 24 November 2015 13: 10 New
    14
    However, this resolution has one serious minus - in fact, it is permission to invade


    Assad in the West as a splinter in railroad. Well, no matter how they do not want to consider Syria an independent state. And I blame oil for everything. She haunts the Rockefellers and Rothschilds across the ocean. They are ready to destroy millions of people in territories where there is oil for their "superprofits." They have nothing sacred. In such non-humans, the earth should burn underfoot ...
    1. sannych
      sannych 24 November 2015 13: 29 New
      +7
      As in the old, but topical, joke: some country was discovered over American oil. This dictatorial regime did not last long.
      1. cniza
        cniza 24 November 2015 13: 50 New
        +4
        Quote: sannych
        As in the old, but topical, joke: some country was discovered over American oil. This dictatorial regime did not last long.



        The partners are quite full of ears, we go along the blade of a knife.
        1. Temples
          Temples 24 November 2015 14: 08 New
          +2
          It feels like the blade is already over.
          Hang ...
        2. Vita vko
          Vita vko 24 November 2015 14: 09 New
          +2
          Everything remained as before “paper for paper,” but in reality the only international norm is the “right of the strong”.
    2. varov14
      varov14 24 November 2015 16: 08 New
      +1
      “To deprive terrorists of their refuge,” --- Set an example and calibrate these same shelters in Turkey, but in order to be documented and legally, snot chewing is then empty.
  2. Pak_c_TonopoM
    Pak_c_TonopoM 24 November 2015 13: 15 New
    +8
    And now we understand to whom the terrorist attacks in Paris were politically beneficial ... It seems that our "partners" really needed the 3rd world ...
    1. Gloomy
      Gloomy 24 November 2015 16: 15 New
      0
      So they have long led the world to this.
  3. lukke
    lukke 24 November 2015 13: 16 New
    +6
    so why didn’t we block it then?! ..
  4. Teberii
    Teberii 24 November 2015 13: 16 New
    +5
    This resolution unties the hands of Turkey first of all. To carry out a punitive operation against the Kurds. Here then little will not seem to everyone.
    1. dorz
      dorz 24 November 2015 14: 34 New
      0
      The Americans support the Kurds, so the situation is not predictable among the Turks.
  5. Wolka
    Wolka 24 November 2015 13: 21 New
    +1
    the Turks have already decided to bring down our plane, but the reaction will not take long, it will be tough, and as always peremptory ...
    1. lukke
      lukke 24 November 2015 13: 29 New
      +9
      the Turks have already decided to bring down our plane, but the reaction will not take long, it will be tough, and as always peremptory
      do not share where such confidence? I personally don’t think that GDP now, under emotions, will immediately begin to wave a saber, not his handwriting. Loud statements - yes, this is the language of diplomacy, and the reckoning will come later and we don’t even realize it right away, they play subtly, but put it on the big one)
      1. combat66
        combat66 24 November 2015 13: 35 New
        +3
        "Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a statement regarding the crash of the Russian SU-24 fighter in Syria near the border with Turkey, the Moscow Talks radio station reports citing a source in the Kremlin."

        Source: http://rusnext.ru/news/1448360108

        So let's listen to what he says .....
        But, I guess that the Turks need to start drying the cakes.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  6. bronik
    bronik 24 November 2015 13: 22 New
    +1
    The Turks are sharply bolder, and they will peck the Kurds harder.
  7. scrap123
    scrap123 24 November 2015 13: 26 New
    +5
    if this time we swallow a downed plane, then it’s certain that all hands will be untied, I think the plane was a test for reaction ...
  8. kotvov
    kotvov 24 November 2015 13: 30 New
    +1
    the situation is heating up, the Turks would not dare to bring down our plane without the approval of the amers. We must not retreat, we will fall under control. the moment of truth is evident.
  9. afdjhbn67
    afdjhbn67 24 November 2015 13: 31 New
    +1
    In order to preserve Assad, we will have to introduce a contingent to Damascus, in order to preserve the capital beyond Assad, and therefore by itself .. well, and possibly to other large cities ..
  10. Hiw
    Hiw 24 November 2015 13: 32 New
    +3
    it is necessary to increase our grouping in Syria, and the air wing and ground weapons, and artillery and missile forces, even if they are afraid, if something happens, it would be nice to deploy a quick reaction force, some sort of airborne regiment supposedly to cover the air squad.
    It seems that as ours blocked the flow of oil by blows to the oil pipeline on wheels, these tsuki realized that the matter had taken a serious turn and that if they now want to restrain it, then they will have to spend their money and not Syrian oil funds.
    1. pv1005
      pv1005 24 November 2015 14: 01 New
      +2
      Quote: HIW
      it is necessary to increase our grouping in Syria, and the air wing and ground weapons, and artillery and missile forces, even if they are afraid, if something happens, it would be nice to deploy a quick reaction force, some sort of airborne regiment supposedly to cover the air squad.

      Tell you the address of the noncom in to register in some sort of regiment? Or are you a white ticket? Military education is probably not even the lessons of the NVP.
  11. Hiw
    Hiw 24 November 2015 13: 43 New
    +5
    I think in the vicinity of the Turkish border it would be advisable to use only a Su-34 with a Su-30 cover, and air-to-air missiles should be hung on the Su 34 so that the American licking would no longer be tempted to engage in battle, otherwise you know 24, cowards. And in general, we should rather take the border with Turkey under complete control, so that we would not only fly across the sky but also walk along the earth, who should not
    1. combat66
      combat66 24 November 2015 13: 48 New
      +6
      You will not envy vacationers in Turkey now. On the next flight and get out of there .... the massacre will begin and hands will be tied for a competent answer
  12. Stiletto
    Stiletto 24 November 2015 13: 54 New
    13
    By the way. Now Russia needs to keep silent. It’s scary so, frighteningly silent.
    Silently start the evacuation of our tourists from Turkey and the surrounding regions.
    Silently recall our ambassadors to Moscow for consultations.
    Silently begin to concentrate forces in areas of potential conflict.
    silently terminate all contacts and all contracts with Turkey.
    Let's see what our partners, their mother, will say. am
    Well, then proceed to act on the situation.
  13. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 24 November 2015 14: 00 New
    0
    I don’t understand, is it the prime minister of Lavrov, or the zrad? Or ours did not vote, or voted against.)
  14. fa2998
    fa2998 24 November 2015 14: 08 New
    +1
    Quote: Teberii
    This resolution unties the hands of Turkey in the first place.

    It’s to shoot down our planes !! In Turkey, there are plenty of accomplices of terrorists. Through the territory of Turkey there is a flow of ISIS mercenaries from Europe, the Caucasus. They will get money in exchange for contraband oil. Now they also shoot down planes, we need an adequate answer. am hi
  15. Selevc
    Selevc 24 November 2015 14: 19 New
    0
    In my opinion, the Turkish Federation’s good answer for a downed plane would be to supply modern ATGMs and MANPADS to the Syrian Kurds ... Let the Turks advance, let them fly — the Kurds are encouraging their wings !!!
    1. chunga-changa
      chunga-changa 24 November 2015 20: 19 New
      0
      S-300 intended for air defense of Syria had to be sent to Iran. In toga, even our airplanes at the base are covered only by the “Shell”, and we see how it ended.
  16. Stiletto
    Stiletto 24 November 2015 14: 20 New
    +2
    I can assume, however, that they will try to hush up the incident with the plane. The downed "dryer" will be declared Syrian, the Russian Defense Ministry is already circulating a statement that our plane was shot down from the ground by fire. Whether it will be two different aircraft, or one shot down by fire from the ground, is not yet clear. But hardly anyone will aggravate the situation, politics, however. Otherwise, the war on terrorism runs the risk of becoming a war of world powers fighting terrorism. Interestingly, after all, is it really possible for Turkey to "let it go on the brakes"?
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 24 November 2015 17: 32 New
      -1
      It looks like from the ground and shot down. Several sources claim.
    2. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 24 November 2015 17: 52 New
      0
      Quote: Stiletto
      I can assume, however, that they will try to hush up the incident with the plane.

      Better not, don’t assume, let's just see what happens.
  17. Zomanus
    Zomanus 24 November 2015 14: 21 New
    +2
    The fact that the plane was shot down is quite predictable.
    For as they wrote here, in this way they break into lice.
    The attacks in Paris almost untied the hands of Europe
    in terms of invading Syria and bombing anything horrible.
    We should not get involved in a ground operation, my opinion.
    You need to keep bombing the oil convoys
    for it does more damage than even killing
    pairs of hundreds of animals.
  18. Dikson
    Dikson 24 November 2015 14: 33 New
    +1
    Zamutnut. Already now the position is clear - an attempt to escape from confrontation. Our media stubbornly accentuates the phrase: “crashed,” and not “shot down by the Turkish Air Force” ((Nothing to show the Turks anything to the Turks .. - If I wanted to show it, I would have come forward .. And the missiles would have plowed the Turkish airfields ... We laughed at the Americans in Afghanistan about the effectiveness of shooting donkeys with drones from drones, and ourselves? into the war, or they will force them to wipe themselves and keep silent.
    1. msm
      msm 24 November 2015 15: 06 New
      -1
      Zamutnut. Will be hushed up as always, as with everyone. This is a tradition of the current leadership. Nothing else to be expected. In essence, this is an advance operation so that some “second part of retaliation” does not begin. This is a distraction from Qatar, I think
      1. corporal
        corporal 24 November 2015 16: 02 New
        0
        Quote: msm
        Zamutnut. Will be hushed up as always, as with everyone.

        In order not to falter, before could such a development be foreseen? Not to stand with your pants down?
        After all, it was clear that sooner or later some side would fill up.
        Okay, let's wait for us to be voiced at the highest level.
  19. Denis DV
    Denis DV 24 November 2015 16: 24 New
    0
    Quote: SS68SS
    Assad in the West as a splinter in railroad.

    I would say, like an umbrella, when you try to remove it, it opens)))
  20. Selevc
    Selevc 24 November 2015 17: 30 New
    +1
    A good response from Russia to Turkey would be a boycott by Russians of Turkish resorts and Turkish goods ... This, as they say, is everyone’s business - but it would be nice if this idea gained popularity in Russian society ... That would be the “popular sanction” imposed on Turkey, so to speak ... It’s not the first time that Turkey has hit Russia in the back - terrorists of various stripes “have rest and lick their wounds there” - from Chechen fighters to all kinds of anti-Assad rabble ... They put sticks in wheels with gas and transit ... And now already brazenly shot down the plane ...
    In general, it’s time to teach Turkey a long time - for example, to establish various contacts with the Kurds ... As they say one of the two - either fight or trade ... But the Turks have long made their choice - and it is not in Russia's favor !!!