The crew of the BMP-1 AF of Novorossiya is conducting a final reconnaissance in the city of Uglegorsk for the presence of the military formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after stripping the southern outskirts of the Debaltsevsk Cauldron. The ousting of the enemy from Uglegorsk not only accelerated the closure of the above boiler, but also strengthened the security of the troops of the Donetsk People's Republic in the city of Gorlovka. As you know, Gorlovka is a key outpost of the army of Novorossia on the most important Artyomovsky ON, where today the Ukrainian armed forces are concentrating the most powerful offensive force grouping. Prior to the release of Uglegorsk, Gorlovka was under constant artillery shelling not only from the North and West OH, but also from the East OH, the stability of the Northern Front of the DPR was then questionable
The final strategic turnaround of the military situation in favor of the army of Novorossia took place on February 9 of the year 2015, when the night offensive operation in the settlement of Logvinovo was successfully completed, as a result of which the Debaltsevskiy boiler was finally closed. This tactical formation played a key role in maintaining the enemy fire artillery control in the rear areas of the Donetsk and part of the Lugansk People's Republic, as well as the possibility of developing offensive actions to bypass the main VSN grouping deployed in the Donetsk agglomeration (Donetsk, Makeevka, Khartsyzk, Illovaysk), with further a breakthrough on Volnovakhskiy ON, where the APU concentrated significant armored and infantry units.
After the final cleansing of the “Debaltsevskiy boiler” neck on the northern front of the LDNR, the military situation in Yenakiyevo, Zhdanovka, Kirovsky, Nikishino significantly stabilized, the regular fire impact of the large-scale caliber artillery and rocket artillery based in Olkhovatka and Aleksandrovsky ceased. Four of the above settlements serve as central transportation hubs between the Donetsk agglomeration, as well as Stakhanov, Pervomaisk and Lugansk, which are the main fortified areas of the LPR People’s Militia Corps on the North-Western Front of the Lugansk Republic. From now on, the units of the Novorossia army in the DPR and LPR received full possibilities of operational interaction during defensive or offensive actions against the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Northern Front
The armed forces of the New Russia completely stopped the entire offensive potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this operational direction, after which the entire northwestern front of the DPR became an irresistible frontier for the junta’s troops, which predetermined the further tactics of combat operations expressed in constant shelling from 152 long-range artillery, mortars, MLRS and other calibers of artillery; any attempt to attack the Donetsk operational direction by infantry and armored brigades was now doomed to failure, since the well-trained units of the army of Novorossia and volunteer units in the rear zones of the DPR and LPR could now maneuver in the depths of the republican theater of operations, snatching and breaking new tactical "boilers" APU. The territory of Novorossia has consolidated within relatively stable borders, but the usual offensive actions of the BCH, which were caused by the Minsk Agreements, as well as shady corruption schemes in the upper echelons of the DPR, whose key members are people of the local big oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, for whom damage to enterprises metallurgical holding "Metinvest" in the city of Mariupol in the course of further battles of death like. But as time has shown, the importance of the Akhmeta holding is still unable to “surpass” the geostrategic games of the West in the post-Soviet space, and Akhmetov himself, trying to play a double game, became for the nationalist and frankly “fascist” Ukrainian authorities a kind of “pest-character” cooperating with "Separators and pro-Russian terrorists." For this reason, today we are witnessing a significant aggravation of the military-strategic situation in the Donbas, which at any time can turn into large-scale hostilities launched by the Ukrainian side.
THE PRESENT POSSIBILITIES OF THE PARTIES ARE AT THE MAXIMUM HIGH LEVEL FOR MAKING LONG AND BURINED WARS
After the victorious and well-coordinated joint operation of the DNI and LNR armies to close and clean up the Debaltsevsky Cauldron from the Ukrainian military units, a little less than a year passed. During this time, more than 35% of the main combat personnel were restored and commissioned. tanks, BBM and artillery mounts (including MLRS); The developed military organization of New Russia was not idle, therefore, the combat-ready composition of the military equipment of the republics is now approaching 95-97%, and the total number of army personnel reaches 60-65 thousand people. The number of MBT and BMP alone exceeds the numbers 600 and 1100, respectively, not to mention the thousands of ATGMs, hundreds of MANPADS and MLRS with modern systems of network-centric coordination and fire correction. The estimated total combat potential of the DPR and LPR armies today significantly exceeds that of, for example, the Ground Forces of Greece and many other countries of Eastern and Southern Europe, which shows in advance the complexity of the situation for the Ukrainian side.
At the beginning of 2015, the artillery units of Novorossia received several 203-mm self-propelled artillery units, which were left by Ukrainian troops during the battles under the cities of Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration. For more than six months, information on the use of ACS data by the DPR army has not yet appeared, since no major offensive operations have been carried out since February 2015. In the upcoming escalation of the conflict, the use of "Pions" can help the militia to quickly achieve victory over the APU by delivering the most powerful artillery strikes on remote support points, spare parts and ammunition depots, as well as the fuel and lubricants of the enemy. For example, an active-rocket projectile ZOF 44, carrying OF XF warhead weighing 43 kg, released by Peony from Novoazovsk, can completely disable the runway coverage of Mariupol airport (with multiple salvo attacks from several guns), which will not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to quickly receive reinforcements military transport aviation in the sector "M". AR projectile ZOF 44 (3VOFX35) has a range of 47500 meters. Likewise, the Uragan MLRS can be used in the same way, but only slightly less (35 km)
The junta, too, has managed to be well staffed lately, both quantitatively and technologically. Back in mid-August, the composition of the offensive "backbone" of the Ukrainian army was opened, the basis of which was the artillery "fist" of approximately 900 units. field artillery and mortars (D-30, Rapier, Acacia, Msta-S, Gvozdika, 2B11 and 2С12 "Sledge") and 150 MRLS (Grad, Uragan, Smerch) which, according to the plan of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, should carry out a long and exhausting artillery training on the fortified areas of the army of Novorossia, creating a favorable “ground” for the 450 MBT T-64BV, T-72B armored units and several thousand BMP-XNXXXXXX infantry units and several thousand BMP-XNXXXXXX infantry units and several thousands BMP-XNXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXT and X-1 XBT and T-XNUMBB units and several thousand BMP-XNXXXXX infantry units. lung BBM. Now this number has increased by 2-5%, considering the data of eyewitnesses in the vicinity of railway junctions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, through which innumerable echelons of the Gvozdika, Acacia and new tanks follow on the Donbass . The information regarding 10 OBT T-300М72, modeled on the Polish PT-1 "Twardy", as well as tactical ATGM FGM-91 "Javelin", which probably already exist in the "bins" of the Armed Forces on a black day, has not been forgotten either. This armament, given the 148-thousandth personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is formidable enough, and you should definitely be reckoned with, and its maximum effectiveness can be achieved only in a general battle, the expediency of which the command of the Armed Forces has so zealously tried to convince Poroshenko of recent months.
Another field development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a light short-range MRLS, represented by two paired NURS B-8 / М / М1 airplanes, mounted on the chassis of the Strela-10 air defense missile system (MT-LB base). Each block B-8 has 20 guides for NURS C-8, the range of which can be about 6 km. From the known nomenclature of unguided missiles for the B-8 units, the C-8C modification is known, which poses the greatest danger to the infantry units of the Novorosiya army. Its warhead has about 2000 miniature arrow-shaped elements similar to BOPS, which can affect personnel with high efficiency when confronted in open areas (in the field, green, etc.). The only protection is the destruction of the installations before they hit the 6-kilometer-hit radius, the predominant use of light armored vehicles with additional welded sheet armor protection, the use of high-precision corrected mortar shells of the KM-8 “Gran” type for the early destruction of such enemy weapons before entering the melee. Meanwhile, the next deadly invention of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already been tested against Donbass last week (photo below). Apparently, the MLRS is designed to compensate for the shortcomings of the “Grad” system associated with the minimum range of 2,5 km, which does not meet the requirements of intense close combat
But even in this case, the APU is waiting for defeat, since the concept of the general battle itself - an unprecedented battle with the use of all resources throughout the theater, in the twenty-first century takes on a completely different form: not the one who uses the maximum number of vehicles and units wins .c., and the one who controls the most favorable relief and complex infrastructure, on which a tactically more correct system of strong points and fortified areas with modern means of information exchange and fire distribution can be deployed while repelling an attack as enemy (similar systems have been used in military conflicts until the end of the XX century); since the beginning of the military conflict in Novorussia, this infrastructure has been owned by the armies of the DPR and the LPR. This infrastructure includes Donetsk and Lugansk agglomerations, Gorlovka, Enakievo, Telmanovo and Novoazovsk. Military units of the junta are mainly located in relatively open areas, in small villages near the line of demarcation, which determines in advance their losing position. The only exceptions are the Mariupol and Volnovakha OH; In these major cities of Donbass, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a powerful network of strongholds, occupying large schools, suburban boilers and telephone exchanges, and also former boarding houses. It is in these areas that the most intense and long-lasting clashes are expected, which can be much harsher than in Debaltseve or Logvinovo.
At the beginning of the previous week, information was received that a US C-17A military transport aircraft with two sets of counter-battery radar artillery reconnaissance AN / TPQ-36 “Firefinder” arrived at Lvov airport and would be handed over to artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbas. In the future we plan to transfer more 4-like radar.
The counter battery AN / TPQ-36 radar will not change the strategic situation in the Novorossia theater, but will complicate the tactics of using the DPR and LPR artillery in some operational areas. AN / TPQ-36 is a counter-battery radar with a medium-range HEADLAMP and is capable of detecting flying shells of large-caliber artillery at a distance of up to 15 km, mortars - at a distance of 18 km, unguided missiles - 24 km. The capacity of the Firefinder is 99 targets, so it can be used in high intensity battles. Its use in Donbass will force the DPR and LNR armies to use self-propelled guns more often than towed artillery at the 15-kilometer frontier from the front line, so the junta’s artillery with the attached AN / TPQ-36 will be able to deliver more accurate and quick strikes on the militia technique, and the ACS can quickly change dislocation, and therefore their losses in the militia will be much less. Also, preference will be given to units of rocket artillery that are in service with the Grad and Hurricane MLRSs, whose firing ranges (24 - 35 km) are at the extreme line, or beyond, the AN / TPQ-36 “Firefinder ".
The presence of the APGS FGM-148 “Javelin” will also not give special advantages in artillery confrontation on the flat terrain of Donbass, where the main objectives will be achieved thanks to large-caliber artillery and mortars at ranges over 3 - 7 km. The only fortified areas and operational areas in which the Javelins can go are Mariupol and Wavewara, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to temporarily use the developed infrastructure of cities for defensive purposes (as is well known, the FGM-148 ATGM has a special diving flight mode used for hitting armored vehicles shelters in difficult terrain or urban battles, the rocket makes a "slide" and hits the target in the most weakened upper armor projection). But here, too, the DPR militia has many technological tricks.
Today, the Javelin ATGM is equipped only with an infrared GOS, which is absolutely not without its drawbacks in thermal guidance systems. A few years ago, the Russian little-known design engineer V. Smirnov offered a very original protection against missiles with ICGSN based on several layers of foil (from a few to dozens), layers of cellophane between them, and a thick sheet of carmat between the specified protection package and the body of the hidden object (MBT, BMP, BTR). Such protection can hide approximately 2 - 2,5 times reduce the infrared visibility of armored vehicles. In the extreme case, the “Cape” complex, either obtained by the Voentorg or developed at the defense enterprises of the DPR and the LPR, can also be used. As you can see, there are plenty of opportunities for the republics to modernize their army in order to defend against the enemy’s modern anti-tank weapons.
The reality is that the Ukrainian army will not be able to repel the counteroffensive of the armies of the DNR and the LC. Despite the fourfold superiority in the number of personnel, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have only one significant defensive line deployed along the Mariupol-Volnovakha-Krasnoarmeysk-Artyomovsk and Slavyansk-Lysychansk line. In these cities, the main Ukrainian strongholds are located, capable of withstanding short-term attacks by artillery and armored vehicles of the militia of New Russia. Longer battles, with the active use of anti-tank calculations and militia tanks will lead to the rapid destruction and suppression of these fortified areas, and even the Javelins will not be able to delay the defeat of the Ukrainian side in this conflict for a long time. After the destruction of the above defensive line, the army of New Russia is fully capable of fully taking the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions under the control and sovereignty of the DPR and the LPR.
"THREADS" INCLUDED INTO THE FAMOUS RHYTHM: MEANING OF THE END OF THE MINSK CONTRACTS
How many Minsk meetings and agreements have there already been in the last 3 of the month, and how many we have already observed fictions with the abduction of heavy weapons, where everything was done only by the armies of the republics, you can’t count all this on your fingers. What we have in the end? Renewed shelling of all districts of Donetsk and Gorlovka from 120-mm mortars and artillery, the resumption of the use of Ukrainian Gradov from the direction of Ugledar (the fact that a full package was issued in Donetsk was registered on November 21 by a resident of the Donbass mining town occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine), the transfer of several thousand military and up to three hundred armored vehicles to Donetsk and Gorlovskoye ON over the last month or two, which even OSCE representatives have recorded. All the facts indicate the approach of the next military campaign, which should be the last for Ukraine. On the northern front of the DPR, the Ukrainian Armed Forces generally resorted to extremes and rapidly “dig a hole for themselves”: some armored units closer to the front open fire on rear artillery units, which naturally causes additional losses and a general weakening of one or another portion of the front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Meanwhile, the DPR Defense Ministry did not hesitate with an asymmetric response, and on Saturday 21 November, the corps command received permission to use large-caliber artillery and MLRS to fight the enemy’s firing points, at the moment this is the most important information since the entry into force has not justified yourself "Minsk-2".
The clash of key world ideologies of unipolarity and multipolarity is most pronounced in the Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts, which are closely interconnected today. The West sees that the Syrian party has already been more than half won by the Russian Federation, and therefore will use its fallback option in the form of a conflict in the Donbas that will be rekindled by the driven and unbridled pro-American Ukrainian top.
The situation on the occupied part of the DPR and the LPR is absolutely not in favor of Ukraine. The population of such cities as Mariupol, Krasnoarmeysk and Volnovakha participated in the well-known May referendum, where independence was supported by more than 80-90%, which is almost over 500 thousand people. Over the 2 year of being a part of Ukraine, with its taxes, prices for utilities and food, this percentage has become even stronger in the opinion that the state of Ukraine is the exploiter and tyrant of its citizens. An even greater anger of people was caused by the shelling by the Ukrainian “Grads” of the “Vostochny” microdistrict, conducted from three directions in the suburbs of Mariupol 24 in January 2015, then more than 150 people died. And this was done only to descredit the DPR army in the eyes of international observers and the population, but a little later, according to the testimony of city residents and shell craters, the true culprit of the deaths of hundreds of people was identified. Virtually all of these people will be ready to join the ranks of the militias in the first days of liberation. Not joyful "bells" sounded for Kiev and Zaporizhia, where the Opposition Bloc won the local elections, the members of which are far from inspiring to accept all kinds of Bandera things imposed by Kiev for two years, so that the mood of the population of Zaporozhye and the areas are already very clear. The region is one of the key ones at the transport interchange between Novorossia and the Crimea, and therefore further aggression of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the region can lead to quite predictable consequences.
Today, Ukraine is on the verge of default. This inevitably brings the end of the dysfunctional state in the format that we are seeing today. The undermining of power line towers in the Kherson region, which provided all of Crimea with electricity, led to the cessation of Russian coal supplies to Ukraine, which is a completely adequate response, because Ukrainian security forces did not even try to hinder the actions of the Crimean Tatars and reckless PS activists who, since the days of the transport blockade of the peninsula had unhindered access to all the power grids of the Kherson region.
Last night, at the end of the preparation of our material, it became known that the armed militants from the “Right Sector”, who had participated in the undermining of power transmission lines in the Kherson region, took control of this section in order to prevent regional repair services. The situation continues to aggravate with complete tolerance and connivance from Kiev, because on the eve of Poroshenko "calmly" led to the ultimatum of the top of the pro-Ukrainian Medzhlis of the Crimean Tatars, according to which the Ukrainian side should completely suspend transport links with the peninsula
The lack of imports of Russian coal in Ukraine very soon paralyzes the work of almost 10 large thermal power plants, which will create a completely natural discontent of the population in the central regions of the country. The general situation in Ukraine is rapidly rolling on an inclined plane, and its individual incidents not only create enormous problems for the life of the population and the stable existence of Novorossia, which will never become part of the first, but also create problems for Russia that will be resolved only if the current the Ukrainian authorities, or the further offensive operations of the army of Novorossia, which will clear out the Azov region and the southern regions of Ukraine from pravosek and other nationalist gangs; The second option is now the most possible, since neither the Minsk Agreements, nor any other formal agreements help to calm Poroshenko and his minions, who, despite the progress made in Minsk, unilaterally continue aggressive actions against the residents of Donbass, and now Crimea switched.