Military Review

Determined Hollande

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The French president said that an international coalition with the participation of Russia and the United States would be able to deal a decisive blow to the terrorist group Islamic State. To create such a broad coalition, Francois Hollande intends to fly to Washington next week and then to Moscow. The French president intends to discuss with Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin the coordination of efforts in countering IG.




“Next Tuesday, I am going to Washington and on Thursday to Moscow to discuss with Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin the coordination of our efforts to work together to achieve this goal as soon as possible. We must form a broad coalition that can deal a decisive blow, ”said Hollande at a congress of mayors of cities in France.

“I understand perfectly well that not all countries have the same interests, concepts, allies. But now we are talking about putting an end to the army, which threatens the whole world, and not one or the other country. We will fulfill this mission, and France with its armed forces, as well as diplomacy, will play a significant role in this, ”the president quotes RIA News".

Eve reminds Utro.ru, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with F. Hollande by telephone. A spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, informs that in the course of the conversation that took place, they touched on the topic of interaction during military operations in Syria.

In addition, at a meeting in the Defense Ministry last Tuesday, the Supreme Commander of Russia ordered the commander of the Moscow-launched missile cruiser in the Mediterranean to coordinate with the French naval group and soon interact with France as an ally.

Francois Hollande confirmed the dispatch on Wednesday of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the eastern Mediterranean to carry out operations to combat terrorists.

However, if the Western world and Russia can eventually create a coalition against the “IS”, then with the Allies in the Middle East the situation is much more complicated.

Reviewers "Kommersant" S. Strokan and M. Yusin point out that for many parties involved in the Syrian conflict, the main enemy is not “IG” at all.

For example, for the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia, the principal opponents are Shiite Iran and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, but the militants of IG, albeit extremists, are radicals, but “their own, Sunni.” Riyadh, after all, professes Wahhabism.

Qatar adheres to a similar position, analysts say.

Turkey inflicts symbolic airstrikes on IG that do not cause serious damage to terrorists. Ankara is conducting an intensive campaign not against IG, but against Kurds, including in the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan. Moreover, until recently, “IG” used the “Turkish route” not only for smuggling oil products, but also for the transit of militants.

There is Israel. With him, too, everything is very difficult. “Israel, despite its military might,” writes the publication, “is hardly worth engaging in hostilities in any Arab country. The degree of hatred of the local population for the "Zionists" is so great that it will deprive the popular support of any coalition that would include the Jewish state. And it’s obviously not eager to intervene in the Syrian-Iraq conflict. ”

Sergey Manukov ("Expert"), like many other analysts, asked the question: is there enough strength for present-day France to wage war with jihadists?

The Islamic State cannot be stopped by bombing alone. For the defeat of jihadists, he believes, after other experts of Manuk, active actions are needed on the ground. Meanwhile, the French ally Washington sent soldiers to Syria is not torn. As for the government army of Syria and the “moderate opposition” (even if they create an alliance), then there are doubts that they will be able to defeat the “IS”.

Taking into account the need for rotation, Paris could have put up no more than forty thousand soldiers for the war in Syria. This is a lot, since there are much less active militants in the ranks of the IG. Therefore, at first glance, the participation of the French contingent in hostilities could easily change the course of the war. “This statement is true,” writes Manukov, “if you do not take into account the peculiarities of the war in Syria, which is of a partisan character.” Here, the usual laws and formulas of military strategy, true to the action of regular troops, do not work. By the way, France has already lost one such war - in Algeria in the sixties of the last century. According to some calculations, 40 thousand soldiers and officers of France may not be enough to keep approximately 16 million Syrians remaining in Syria in obedience, even with the most favorable scenario. At the worst scenario, in which all Syrians will rebel against the interventionists, we need about 770 thousand people. This is more than the armies of France and the United States combined. ”

That is why analysts have doubts that France will manage alone to cope with the "Islamic State".

Apparently, let us add on our own, the French president has the corresponding doubts. Therefore, he intends to create a broad international anti-terrorist coalition with the participation of the United States and the Russian Federation. And most likely, Moscow and Washington will participate in this new coalition. However, neither Moscow nor Washington does not intend to conduct ground operations in Syria.

Recall the other day B.H. Obama clarified his position on the strategy in Syria. According to the American president, Washington does not plan to radically change the strategy in Syria and begin a ground operation. The President believes that such an operation would be a big mistake. is he clarified: “This is an unconventional military opponent. We can occupy territory, but this does not solve the main problem of the existence of extremist groups. ”

At the same time, Obama, who met with Vladimir Putin on the margins of the G20 summit, stressed the importance of Russian air strikes on the positions of "IG". The US President described the negotiations with the Russian leader as constructive and noted that “the terrible terrorist attacks in Paris” make the task of resolving the Syrian crisis “more urgent”.

As you can see, we are talking only about air strikes.

November 17 Russia also confirmed the refusal to conduct a land operation in Syria.

As stated by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, Russia still does not intend to carry out a land operation in Syria. “President Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia will be limited to only the air component, and that there is no talk of a land operation. In addition, I would like to remind you that the operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces is carried out precisely in support of the ground offensive operation of the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic ", - Peskov quotes Interfax.

Earlier it became known, the agency reminds that Vladimir Putin demanded to strengthen the operation of the Russian Aerospace Force in Syria.

What can France do in such conditions?

Professor of the Russian Politics Department of the Faculty of Political Science, Moscow State University, Member of the Scientific Council under the Security Council of the Russian Federation Andrei Manoilo said "Free Press": “If Hollande had a quiet and calm rear, for him the ideal victorious war would be a small war against the Islamic State. French society is waiting for decisive action from him, and this would raise his share. If everything was calm inside the country, tomorrow the French paratroopers and the Foreign Legion could have been transferred to the Middle East, and a series of demonstrative punitive operations would begin. ”

However, after the well-known events in Paris, it became clear: the front line can pass in France itself. The army and the police, of course, are needed domestically. Therefore, the expert believes, Hollande is likely to limit himself to a few exemplary operations. French aviation It will strike at terrorist positions in Syria and Iraq, but French forces will most likely not participate in the ground operation.

The expert looks skeptical at the creation of a broad coalition: “I don’t think that Paris will drastically change its position, immediately unite with Russia, turn its back on the United States, and hundreds of French fighters will arrive on the Syrian front. In the same way, it is unlikely that these events will push France to create a broad anti-terrorist coalition in the form in which Russia talks about it. Its creation depends largely on the views of the United States. Only after the Americans give their European allies a formal agreement, it will be possible. " But now the Americans are watching the situation from the outside. Threats "IG" beat on Europe, but not on the United States. A strong Europe is a competitor of the United States, and therefore it is beneficial for the White House to have crises in Europe. “Therefore,” says the analyst, “Americans will be detached from the situation, although ideologically they will give out enough PR material.”

Well, it’s really not necessary to wait for gifts from the Americans to the French. Monsieur Hollande already got hold of Washington history with anti-Russian sanctions and “Mistrals”, a low trust rating from the French people and the growing popularity of political rivals, including Marine Le Pen. With such a supportive Washington president, there is no point in changing politics. As Uncle Sam decides, so be it.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
45 comments
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  1. The comment was deleted.
  2. Sasha75
    Sasha75 20 November 2015 06: 29 New
    11
    When the Germans entered Paris, the French cried, and we fought near Moscow, and now they will also let them cry. But seriously, they knew every terrorist who was there only they fought in Syria against Assad and therefore they were not touched that they were a fool to include their home terrorists, who probably threw money. Why they were all killed, so that no one would speak that's all.
    1. oldseaman1957
      oldseaman1957 20 November 2015 06: 51 New
      +8
      French society expects decisive action from him,

      Well, what "decisive action" can be expected from a henpecked US?
    2. inkass_98
      inkass_98 20 November 2015 06: 57 New
      11
      Quote: Sasha75
      When the Germans entered Paris, the French cried

      Not all, the parades there were not less successful than in Lviv:
      1. hohryakov066
        hohryakov066 20 November 2015 08: 48 New
        +2
        So wept for joy!
        1. a52333
          a52333 20 November 2015 11: 43 New
          10
          Losses of Germans at Pavlov’s house more than they died during the capture of Paris.
          From history - 8. "Pavlov's House" - what you need to know.
          MACTX3B 176 days ago
          1. Four-story with four entrances residential building of the Oblpotrebsoyuz on Penzenskaya street, 61 in Stalingrad.
          2. On the operational map of the German commander of the Stalingrad grouping Paulus, "Pavlov’s house" was designated as a fortress
          3. Pavlov’s house lasted TWO MONTHS.
          4. 30 people defended him.
          5. Only three died. The Germans lost more on Pavlov’s house than they died during the capture of Paris.
          6. All the time of defense in the basement of the house were civilians. 7. Stalingrad began to rebuild from this house on 9 on June 1943.
          1. gladcu2
            gladcu2 20 November 2015 20: 05 New
            +2
            a52333

            And why did Pavlov’s house hold on?

            Do you remember the order of Stalin 227? Do you know the introduction? Where Stalin turned to the people and said that the state is holding on with all its might, there is no where to retreat. "Not one step back".

            Stalin honestly said, hold on to the last. He turned to the people for help.

            When the leader and the people are one. Even a small group of people connected by one idea can work wonders.
          2. Morrrow
            Morrrow 20 November 2015 20: 52 New
            0
            So the French did not die much. The French and Germans are fraternal peoples.
      2. gladcu2
        gladcu2 20 November 2015 19: 58 New
        0
        inkas98

        So after all, they worked on parades. You can always find a skilled leader and a hundred others, powerless to give a couple of three parades.

        No sensations.

        "Everything is like a knight above"
    3. gladcu2
      gladcu2 20 November 2015 19: 55 New
      +2
      Sasha75

      The French did not cry because they were crybaby and weaklings.

      These are tears of powerlessness. The French merged the government. The structure of public security that was supposed to raise society to confrontation betrayed its people. Betrayed the trust of citizens.

      These are tears of powerlessness.
      1. nimboris
        nimboris 23 November 2015 03: 37 New
        0
        That's right, just write it right: "powerlessness."
    4. kodxnumx
      kodxnumx 20 November 2015 20: 50 New
      0
      We wish good luck to Monsieur Hollande that he will have to listen to him in the USA. I think we will never know this! lol
      1. edge
        edge 22 November 2015 06: 49 New
        0
        Quote: kod3001
        We wish Monsieur Hollande good luck that he will have to listen to the USA

        what should he listen to, a couple of floppies, a kick under the ass (the fate of all lackeys). Moreover, the Alkaida (igil) is a favorite toy of staff members sewn with their own hands for long lonely evenings; who will allow it to be destroyed .... only Russian sadists can do this
  3. meriem1
    meriem1 20 November 2015 06: 44 New
    +7
    For example, for the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia, the principal opponents are Shiite Iran and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, but the militants of IG, albeit extremists, are radicals, but “their own, Sunni.” Riyadh, after all, professes Wahhabism.


    Our President said openly and directly !!! We will use 51 st of the UN. That's it they) Saudis and Qatari) frequented Us ... Most likely there are killer facts on the financing of ISIS !!!! Strategic aviation was not just demonstrated!
    1. satris
      satris 20 November 2015 07: 33 New
      +3
      Yes, if you squeeze the Saudis, the region will become much calmer.
    2. edge
      edge 22 November 2015 06: 55 New
      0
      Quote: meriem1
      Strategic aviation was not just demonstrated!

      .... and as usual it will be repeated -17, -45 years: (Amer.evriki) will be pulled to a hat analysis and, like, the winners will try to conclude agreements.
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 20 November 2015 06: 53 New
    +2
    We must form a broad coalition that can deliver a decisive blow.

    The words are correct. But the United States understands this in its own way and does not want to participate in this with Russia. It is better to imitate frantic activity and observe from the side, and at the decisive hour to act as the inspirer and organizer of all victories than to enter into an alliance with Russia. Pride, which is a mortal sin, prevails over the American mind.
    1. edge
      edge 22 November 2015 06: 59 New
      0
      Quote: rotmistr60
      The words are correct. But the United States understands this in its own way and does not want to participate in this with Russia. It is better to imitate frantic activity and observe from the side, and at the decisive hour to act as the inspirer and organizer of all victories than to enter into an alliance with Russia. Pride

      at the British principle, all with the wrong hands, and then get in and fuck to the maximum; but the first to decide on the bandwagon of the French were to jump and move them.
  5. inkass_98
    inkass_98 20 November 2015 06: 59 New
    +1
    No matter how Hollande puffed up, you will not escape fate: he will not be the next president. Sarkozy is most likely, although Le Pen will pull his share. Sarkozy has already made himself a good political capitalist based on Hollande’s mistakes; there will be no second round.
    1. edge
      edge 22 November 2015 07: 01 New
      0
      Quote: inkass_98
      No matter how Hollande puffed up, you will not escape fate: he will not be the next president.

      a trifle, the main profits will be raked by those who will restore Syria ... here is the answer (Iran, Russia, France ...), + the Mistral non-delivery complex.
  6. Stoler
    Stoler 20 November 2015 07: 09 New
    +2
    The dog runs to the owner for permission to bite the offender. laughing
  7. shturman032
    shturman032 20 November 2015 07: 19 New
    +9
    Let’s do our best, we won’t give up Mistral, but let’s fight together. Skin in one word.
  8. 1234567890
    1234567890 20 November 2015 07: 47 New
    0
    Should we understand the latest events in such a way that the IG created by the mattresses and Co. got off the leash and tried to nibble its owners, for which they decided to flog them. Exactly what the slonkess - with the hands of this "resolute" messenger at the errands of the swarthy guy.
    1. Belousov
      Belousov 20 November 2015 10: 30 New
      +1
      The hosts — Qatar, the states, the Saudis — are alive and well. And the little dog bit the one who needs to. The goal is to weaken Europe, not to give it political and, most importantly, economic stability.
      1. edge
        edge 22 November 2015 07: 07 New
        0
        Quote: Belousov
        The hosts — Qatar, the states, the Saudis — are alive and well. And the little dog bit the one who needs to. The goal is to weaken Europe, not to give it political and, most importantly, economic stability.

        also hoh ... they’ll hang on their neck
  9. askort154
    askort154 20 November 2015 07: 58 New
    +1
    Naive Oland, decided to raise his rating on the fight against terrorism. Using the moment, he wants to transfer from a donkey to
    white horse. Viva, newly made, Oland-Napolion.
  10. sa-zz
    sa-zz 20 November 2015 08: 06 New
    +4
    Europeans can’t understand in any way that the USA cannot be reached by terrorists in the fragile small boats of the USA on another continent. And they wanted to spit on how bad it was for someone, and to be more precise - the more chaos on the other continent of Europe-Asia, the more profitable the p.i.d.a.m. Much can be said about this (which all comrades already know).
    But maybe Europeans are not deciding ANYTHING at home?
  11. Wolka
    Wolka 20 November 2015 08: 08 New
    +3
    and what to comment on, everything has already been said by the author, and quite clearly, we will wait for further continuation, which will certainly happen and if you believe the forecasts, the words of Waltz will be even worse and there is already reason for this ...
  12. kumaxa
    kumaxa 20 November 2015 08: 16 New
    +1
    well! for yankee removed that and that!
  13. cormorant
    cormorant 20 November 2015 08: 32 New
    +3
    While Hollande will gather his thoughts and consult with everyone, nothing will remain of the barmaley. And then of course this mumble will say that he created a coalition and under his strict guidance, with the help of Russia, ISIS was destroyed ...
    1. Saratoga833
      Saratoga833 20 November 2015 14: 50 New
      +2
      After the Second World War, when signing the surrender, the Germans asked about the French, but what, did these also defeat us?
      So now, on someone else's hump, they want to enter paradise!
      1. Morrrow
        Morrrow 20 November 2015 21: 01 New
        -1
        In the Great War, the French withstood a series of terrifying blows by the Germans at Verdun.
        1. edge
          edge 22 November 2015 07: 10 New
          0
          Quote: Morrrow
          In the Great War, the French withstood a series of terrifying blows by the Germans at Verdun.

          unlikely, you forgot the Belgians, etc. (frank union)
  14. wandlitz
    wandlitz 20 November 2015 09: 24 New
    +2
    Quote: cormorant
    While Hollande will gather his thoughts and consult with everyone, nothing will remain of the barmaley. And then of course this mumble will say that he created a coalition and under his strict guidance, with the help of Russia, ISIS was destroyed ...

    Will begin to stick out, proving to the world that only his efforts put an end to the collapse of ISIS ...
  15. guzik007
    guzik007 20 November 2015 09: 36 New
    0
    Bomb, of course, we will bomb, in this regard, I think. And no one has any doubts.
    Now the horizon is already a larger task. Namely, what's next? What to do so that this infection does not revive again in the liberated territories. A very difficult question and investments will require so large-scale that the cost of bombs and missiles will seem ridiculous. This is where we will not be able to pull it on our own, here we must come to an agreement with the "partners". It’s easy to break, to establish stability in the region will be extremely difficult, especially when you consider that those, because of the puddle, initially had a diametrically opposite task.
  16. Belousov
    Belousov 20 November 2015 10: 35 New
    +2
    Wow, what a decisive, terrible. Like a Georgian from a joke crap in front of a mirror. Going to fly here and there. The only question is, who will listen to him? And the military capabilities of France leave a lot of questions. What forces will fight? With what intensity? The goals, as before, will be power plants with hospitals and excavators? In general, it’s too early to deceive themselves at their expense.
    1. edge
      edge 22 November 2015 07: 15 New
      0
      Quote: Belousov
      And the military capabilities of France leave a lot of questions. What forces will fight? With what intensity?

      foreign legion (and it consists of 6 regiments) + units of air and naval support. France has something to fight ..., there is someone to fight .... and they know how to fight, the Russians tried here too. Moreover, this is the level of colonial wars (and here they are specialists)
  17. knn54
    knn54 20 November 2015 11: 08 New
    +3
    Just elections coming soon.
  18. triglav
    triglav 20 November 2015 11: 42 New
    -1
    And I would not mess with them. It is necessary to squeeze ISIS in Syria ourselves. And then take up Iraq (at the request of the leadership of this country). Yes, together with Iran.
  19. evil partisan
    evil partisan 20 November 2015 13: 07 New
    +4
    Determined Hollande
    no Sounds like: Crazy Slug yes .
  20. Decathlon
    Decathlon 20 November 2015 13: 35 New
    +4
    And why was he going to Moscow ?! Washington, of course, there is a political cunnilingus master class, and in Moscow, people are busy!
    1. Alexvl
      Alexvl 21 November 2015 00: 18 New
      0
      Distract from work and waste our time. Americans don’t send him anything. It is a pity that the French have such a spineless leader.
    2. edge
      edge 22 November 2015 07: 19 New
      0
      Quote: Decathlon
      And why was he going to Moscow ?! Washington, of course, there is a political cunnilingus master class, and in Moscow, people are busy!

      whoever licks many has good
  21. theadenter
    theadenter 20 November 2015 17: 15 New
    0
    The most interesting thing is that the NATO member wants to cooperate with Russia.
    This is a good beacon of incapacity for NATO and the Western coalition.
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 20 November 2015 20: 20 New
      0
      theadenter

      Member, in Russian has a dual meaning. As it is with a stranger member to deal is not camilpho. Although someone like that.
  22. Alexvl
    Alexvl 21 November 2015 00: 12 New
    0
    Meanwhile, the UN is adopting a resolution proposed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which actually condemns Russia's actions in Syria.
  23. Baloo
    Baloo 22 November 2015 18: 04 New
    0
    “The preservation of power in Assad’s hands will not work. We cannot stop the war, ”Obama said.
    Hollande like that nun and virginity seem and pleasure to get at someone else's expense.
    Not a man, no not a man.