“Next Tuesday, I am going to Washington and on Thursday to Moscow to discuss with Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin the coordination of our efforts to work together to achieve this goal as soon as possible. We must form a broad coalition that can deal a decisive blow, ”said Hollande at a congress of mayors of cities in France.
“I understand perfectly well that not all countries have the same interests, concepts, allies. But now we are talking about putting an end to the army, which threatens the whole world, and not one or the other country. We will fulfill this mission, and France with its armed forces, as well as diplomacy, will play a significant role in this, ”the president quotes RIA News".
Eve reminds Utro.ru, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with F. Hollande by telephone. A spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, informs that in the course of the conversation that took place, they touched on the topic of interaction during military operations in Syria.
In addition, at a meeting in the Defense Ministry last Tuesday, the Supreme Commander of Russia ordered the commander of the Moscow-launched missile cruiser in the Mediterranean to coordinate with the French naval group and soon interact with France as an ally.
Francois Hollande confirmed the dispatch on Wednesday of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the eastern Mediterranean to carry out operations to combat terrorists.
However, if the Western world and Russia can eventually create a coalition against the “IS”, then with the Allies in the Middle East the situation is much more complicated.
Reviewers "Kommersant" S. Strokan and M. Yusin point out that for many parties involved in the Syrian conflict, the main enemy is not “IG” at all.
For example, for the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia, the principal opponents are Shiite Iran and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, but the militants of IG, albeit extremists, are radicals, but “their own, Sunni.” Riyadh, after all, professes Wahhabism.
Qatar adheres to a similar position, analysts say.
Turkey inflicts symbolic airstrikes on IG that do not cause serious damage to terrorists. Ankara is conducting an intensive campaign not against IG, but against Kurds, including in the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan. Moreover, until recently, “IG” used the “Turkish route” not only for smuggling oil products, but also for the transit of militants.
There is Israel. With him, too, everything is very difficult. “Israel, despite its military might,” writes the publication, “is hardly worth engaging in hostilities in any Arab country. The degree of hatred of the local population for the "Zionists" is so great that it will deprive the popular support of any coalition that would include the Jewish state. And it’s obviously not eager to intervene in the Syrian-Iraq conflict. ”
Sergey Manukov ("Expert"), like many other analysts, asked the question: is there enough strength for present-day France to wage war with jihadists?
The Islamic State cannot be stopped by bombing alone. For the defeat of jihadists, he believes, after other experts of Manuk, active actions are needed on the ground. Meanwhile, the French ally Washington sent soldiers to Syria is not torn. As for the government army of Syria and the “moderate opposition” (even if they create an alliance), then there are doubts that they will be able to defeat the “IS”.
Taking into account the need for rotation, Paris could have put up no more than forty thousand soldiers for the war in Syria. This is a lot, since there are much less active militants in the ranks of the IG. Therefore, at first glance, the participation of the French contingent in hostilities could easily change the course of the war. “This statement is true,” writes Manukov, “if you do not take into account the peculiarities of the war in Syria, which is of a partisan character.” Here, the usual laws and formulas of military strategy, true to the action of regular troops, do not work. By the way, France has already lost one such war - in Algeria in the sixties of the last century. According to some calculations, 40 thousand soldiers and officers of France may not be enough to keep approximately 16 million Syrians remaining in Syria in obedience, even with the most favorable scenario. At the worst scenario, in which all Syrians will rebel against the interventionists, we need about 770 thousand people. This is more than the armies of France and the United States combined. ”
That is why analysts have doubts that France will manage alone to cope with the "Islamic State".
Apparently, let us add on our own, the French president has the corresponding doubts. Therefore, he intends to create a broad international anti-terrorist coalition with the participation of the United States and the Russian Federation. And most likely, Moscow and Washington will participate in this new coalition. However, neither Moscow nor Washington does not intend to conduct ground operations in Syria.
Recall the other day B.H. Obama clarified his position on the strategy in Syria. According to the American president, Washington does not plan to radically change the strategy in Syria and begin a ground operation. The President believes that such an operation would be a big mistake. is he clarified: “This is an unconventional military opponent. We can occupy territory, but this does not solve the main problem of the existence of extremist groups. ”
At the same time, Obama, who met with Vladimir Putin on the margins of the G20 summit, stressed the importance of Russian air strikes on the positions of "IG". The US President described the negotiations with the Russian leader as constructive and noted that “the terrible terrorist attacks in Paris” make the task of resolving the Syrian crisis “more urgent”.
As you can see, we are talking only about air strikes.
November 17 Russia also confirmed the refusal to conduct a land operation in Syria.
As stated by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, Russia still does not intend to carry out a land operation in Syria. “President Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia will be limited to only the air component, and that there is no talk of a land operation. In addition, I would like to remind you that the operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces is carried out precisely in support of the ground offensive operation of the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic ", - Peskov quotes Interfax.
Earlier it became known, the agency reminds that Vladimir Putin demanded to strengthen the operation of the Russian Aerospace Force in Syria.
What can France do in such conditions?
Professor of the Russian Politics Department of the Faculty of Political Science, Moscow State University, Member of the Scientific Council under the Security Council of the Russian Federation Andrei Manoilo said "Free Press": “If Hollande had a quiet and calm rear, for him the ideal victorious war would be a small war against the Islamic State. French society is waiting for decisive action from him, and this would raise his share. If everything was calm inside the country, tomorrow the French paratroopers and the Foreign Legion could have been transferred to the Middle East, and a series of demonstrative punitive operations would begin. ”
However, after the well-known events in Paris, it became clear: the front line can pass in France itself. The army and the police, of course, are needed domestically. Therefore, the expert believes, Hollande is likely to limit himself to a few exemplary operations. French aviation It will strike at terrorist positions in Syria and Iraq, but French forces will most likely not participate in the ground operation.
The expert looks skeptical at the creation of a broad coalition: “I don’t think that Paris will drastically change its position, immediately unite with Russia, turn its back on the United States, and hundreds of French fighters will arrive on the Syrian front. In the same way, it is unlikely that these events will push France to create a broad anti-terrorist coalition in the form in which Russia talks about it. Its creation depends largely on the views of the United States. Only after the Americans give their European allies a formal agreement, it will be possible. " But now the Americans are watching the situation from the outside. Threats "IG" beat on Europe, but not on the United States. A strong Europe is a competitor of the United States, and therefore it is beneficial for the White House to have crises in Europe. “Therefore,” says the analyst, “Americans will be detached from the situation, although ideologically they will give out enough PR material.”
Well, it’s really not necessary to wait for gifts from the Americans to the French. Monsieur Hollande already got hold of Washington history with anti-Russian sanctions and “Mistrals”, a low trust rating from the French people and the growing popularity of political rivals, including Marine Le Pen. With such a supportive Washington president, there is no point in changing politics. As Uncle Sam decides, so be it.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru