The global capitalist form of management and the liberal ideological system were formed by and large by the end of the 20th century. Today, the struggle of this "civilization" with all kinds of dissent and interaction in every corner of the planet has acquired the shape of a hybrid war.
An assessment of the current international situation and proposals on how to strengthen Russia's status in the world economy and politics was made at the last meeting of the Analytics expert discussion club.
In the ongoing hybrid war, it is mainly not the physical space that is affected, but the human psyche, the mentality. The consequences of such an impact may be more serious than the results of previous world clashes.
The initiators of what is happening have become the United States and their closest allies in NATO. The signs of the war they unleashed are:
1. A massive buildup of military potential and activity around the perimeter of the Russian Federation’s borders, with complete stagnation in solving arms control problems.
2. The crisis of the system of international law prevailing in the postwar period and after the 1990 year.
3. Persistent attempts at internal political destabilization and destruction of the subjectivity and integrity of countries in the post-Soviet space, in other regions.
4. The imposition of financial and economic sanctions against Russia with an increase in their scope and range of application both by type of activity and in relation to individuals.
5. Coordinated and purposeful informational impact on the value-motivational institutions of Russian society, the formation of the demonic image of our country and its political leadership in foreign states.
6. The use of tactical (operational-tactical) groupings of troops in individual areas to perform strategic tasks.
Despite the complexity of the current situation, it should be borne in mind that the greatest military-strategic danger for our country will manifest itself in seven to ten years, when the capabilities of the global land-based and sea-based system will exceed the effectiveness of its overcoming Russia's SNF. There is every reason to believe that the opposition will last long.
Trick to rob
The current world order is maintained today with the help of a high-tech information and cognitive tool - a comprehensive digital platform that includes electronic network communications. The global governance circuit seeks to limit the subjectivity of states in a unified world through key levers of control over the payment system, information flows, markets for strategic assets, political, geophysical and genetic resources. In the near future, this digital platform should be strengthened by new cybernetic projects.
The unipolar world is not intended for the development of all countries and peoples, but to preserve the hegemony of the few at the expense of directed social stagnation and the chaos of the rest. The Western community is committed to the approval of such an order, based on financial and economic superiority, the infrastructure of US organizational capital and the latest technology. It follows the ideological doctrine, the leitmotif of which is the preaching of American exclusivity. But this does not mean that everyone is ready to submit to such a scenario.
Objectively, periods of escalation of international military-political tensions are always due to the cyclical change of technological patterns, when there is a deep structural restructuring of the economy. In such periods, conflicts develop between old and new leaders for dominance in world markets and in international organizations. Today, this implies control of the global information-cognitive space, where explicit and implicit conditions are formed, not only consumer, but also social choice.
The Russian Federation was chosen as the main thrust for a number of reasons. Subjectively, the current anti-Russian policy is explained by the irritation of the Western ruling circles by the increased independence of Moscow’s foreign policy, a strategy to increase economic sovereignty, military-technical readiness to protect its national interests, the expansion of broad Eurasian integration, and the strengthening of BRICS.
The burden of US foreign and domestic debt obligations undermines their status as the global monetary and financial hegemon. Therefore, the Russian Federation and other countries, primarily the BRICS group, are considered as a source of resources to compensate for toxic US financial assets. The seizure in different forms of resources of Russia and the BRICS countries in favor of US and EU corporations is viewed by the latter as a method of clearing balance sheets, stimulating real economic growth and technological re-equipment in the western bloc.
Over the past quarter century, the volume of outflow of real investment resources from Russia amounted to about two or three of its annual GDP. This is comparable to the scale of losses and reparations imposed on Paris by Berlin after the 1871 war of the year and on Germany after its defeat in the First and Second World Wars. The volume of seizures of the resource potential of Russia, not counting human losses and lost land, for the 20th century exceeds 10 average annual GDP in terms of today. Comparable damage has been done to other BRICS countries.
However, the weakening of US hegemony at the beginning of the 21st century, a decrease in the share of the West in the global economy and the rapid rise of China marked the beginning of the leadership change process, which could take 15 – 30 years and cause upheavals comparable to those that occurred in 1914 – 1945.
From offshore to balkanization
At present, the main parameters of the management of the reproduction of the Russian economy are not controlled by the state to the appropriate extent. This contributes to the outflow of investment resources. But there is a consensus in society that the model of export-oriented growth, based on commodity specialization and dependence on foreign financial markets, has exhausted itself.
Involvement into the stagflational trap was also due to the macroeconomic, monetary, fiscal policy being pursued. The national economy operates at no more than two-thirds of the potential capacity, while remaining a donor of the global financial system. Total budget losses due to offshore, capital flight and tax evasion operations are close to 10 trillion rubles per year. The volume of currency assets of the Russian Federation, placed in the jurisdiction of NATO countries, exceeds 1,2 trillion dollars.
Preserving dependence on the western core of the global financial system creates the risk of defeat in the global hybrid war, the complete loss of national sovereignty, up to the "balkanization" of the territory of the Russian Federation and its neighbors.
Neutralization of these threats is impossible without abandoning the model of embedding into the world economy, without forming sovereign sources and mechanisms of development, as well as without a wide anti-war coalition of states based on equal partnership, mutual benefit, respect for national sovereignty and civilizational uniqueness.
The basic condition for neutralizing Western sanctions is to switch to domestic sources of financing, turning the Bank of Russia into a real “lender of last resort”.
To overcome dependence on foreign products, large-scale import substitution programs are necessary, balanced by material, financial and labor resources. With the current regulation of the economy is impossible. Lost planning methods, including the preparation of balances, targeted programming, scientific and technical forecasting, system design.
Elimination of the causes of stagflation and the creation of conditions for growth should be held during the 2016 year.
Or plan, or disappeared
The main condition for a successful Russian foreign policy can only be the positive results of domestic social construction, mastering and ennobling the space, healthy and creative way of life of the masses. This does not negate the formation of a broad anti-war coalition for sustainable development. It can be based on the BRICS countries.
The following strategic decisions need to be developed and implemented:
-the formation of the international payment system BRICS;
-the establishment of a multilateral investment guarantee agency;
-establishment of uniform standards for determining the ratings and activities of rating agencies, their unified regulation, as well as audit companies, legal consultants;
-creation of its own structure of international payments, alternative to the currently dominant SWIFT system;
- coordination of the rules of conduct of national monetary authorities in case of the need to protect their monetary and financial systems from speculative attacks and suppression of associated turbulence;
-organization of the system of international regulation of a full-scale information infrastructure, eliminating discrimination in access to it;
- the basis of the intellectual and prognostic network of scientific institutions of the BRICS countries to develop a new architecture of the world monetary and financial system, identify common interests and measures for their implementation, as well as recommendations in the field of integration policy.
An important component of the global coalition is the Eurasian Economic Union. Two thirds of the potential effect of its creation falls on the following factors: the formation and implementation of a unified long-term development policy, the construction of common markets, primarily in the field of energy, the transition to the newest technological structure, the implementation of large interstate programs and projects.
The most important resource of Russia is the improvement of the structure of public administration. The recently adopted law “On State Strategic Planning” needs serious revision. Of particular importance is the integration of large private financial-industrial groups into this system of independent expertise.
Taking into account the significance of this work and the fact that the Russian government as the central executive body is loaded with current tasks, it is advisable to establish a State Committee for Strategic Planning (Development) under the President of Russia. It is also necessary to prepare a modern management system of scientific and technical progress in the format of a super-departmental federal body.
Centralization of strategic planning and scientific and technical powers will require changes in domestic policy, primarily in personnel. “Forming a new system of institutions linking the work of the planning and scientific and technical committees of the highest political rank and the Bank of Russia is similar to creating a“ civilian General Staff ”- the State Committee of Defense, which during the Great Patriotic War provided the unity of the front and rear necessary for victory” -Nulled the chairman of the executive committee of the Association "Analytics" Yuri Koptev.
Of paramount importance is the consolidation of the population. In 2016, special attention should be paid to supporting civil society initiatives as a key subject of Russia's security.
It is worth mobilizing the unique domestic experience of large projects: electrification, industrialization, the organization of the defense industry, nuclear and space, the elimination of illiteracy and others. In the near future, such a mega-project could be “Arrangement of Russia”, which includes intensive development of Siberia and the Far East, infrastructural re-equipment of the European part of the country, expansion of the transcontinental and local transport network, mass erection rich in modern technologies, but accessible to the masses of housing. Equally important are the accelerated promotion of national and international space programs, the development of civil aviation.
It is necessary to establish a new generation of leaders - positive and educated leaders, who understand the strengths and weaknesses of Russia, who are ready to work hard to transform it.
The worldview created by our civilization is the natural basis of the new socio-humanitarian structure. His key idea is the pursuit of harmony, justice and the development of all actors in the global community.
There are three possible scenarios for Russia today:
- to compromise with the West and return to its place in the world order (essentially agree with the strategic loss in the current and historical confrontation);
-to strengthen the opposition, responding to the pressure of the West by an escalation of resistance;
- initiate a constructive dialogue with partners and opponents, focusing on the reconstruction of the existing global system, of which Russia and other countries of the world are a part.
There may be more models - their generation, comparative analysis and determination of preference should be one of the main tasks of the analytical community.
Russian society already contains all the prerequisites for the transition to a qualitatively new level of socio-economic development. In prosperity are both promising territories, technologies that provide energy and informational needs, and people with vast experience in building a socially oriented society and surviving reforms, and most importantly, the unwilling desire of social creativity. Only political will is needed.