Before answering the question “What will happen?” From the point of view of system analysis, it is necessary to answer the question “Why?” Indeed, what are the causes of what is happening?
Until the middle of the last century, beautiful France was a colonial power. Actually, and now it has overseas territory. I will not bother the reader with a listing of all the colonial possessions (in different years there were a huge number of them, the names and borders changed), I will mention only a few: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Syria, Sudan, Niger, Chad. As you can see, in all these countries there is the problem of terrorism. And only Algeria controls the situation.
The word "France" gives us a number of stable associations: the Louvre, Versailles, Eiffel Tower, Champs Elysees, Nice, Cote d'Azur. Behind this magnificence is the cruelest exploitation of the colonies. And this is a serious factor in the ideological constructs of the leaders of radicalism in these countries.
Fast forward to our time and remember the role of France in the "Arab Spring". It was France that played a major role in the destruction of Libya as a state. She was noted for intervention in Tunisia, Egypt and Syria.
Thus, two groups of dissatisfied were formed: those who consider themselves to have been robbed by the colonialists, and those who blame France for aggression and want revenge. From the 1962 year (the year of the proclamation of the independence of Algeria), these discontented people are present in the ever-increasing flow of immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East.
And how did the French government react to emigration from the Maghreb and the Middle East? Certainly, it reacted, but in such a way that, in my opinion, a situation arose when ordinary French people began to live in one reality, the ruling elite in another, and the Brussels bureaucracy in the third. I will explain.
In the middle of 2000, I worked in an international organization in a European country. I wanted to visit Paris. He received permission and went with his family to the cultural capital of the world. Settled in a hotel at a military cemetery. In the evening we went to see Paris at night lighting. Got a lot of impressions. At midnight we return by metro to the hotel. In the car no more than ten passengers. At one of the stations enters the Negro or, speaking politically correct, afro-French. And immediately begins to pranks, pestering all the passengers in turn. All silently endure with stone faces. We were lucky: the Negro, before reaching us, got out of the car. There was no fight. We leave from the subway. The hotel 50-70 meters. Another Negro, not being embarrassed by the fact that I and my son, who is a head taller than me, are walking along the spouse, tried to snatch the ladies' handbag, however unsuccessfully.
After reviewing the beauties of Paris, we drove home in two days. On tourist maps of the capital of France, who do not know, there are areas that tourists are not recommended to enter. I naively thought that this was not the case for a car trip, and I was mistaken. At the crossroads, there are groups of young people clearly of non-European appearance, and they throw stones at passing cars.
The next day, met with a friend of the French Army Colonel and described our trip to him. The description ended with the question: “What are you doing? After all, Paris will soon explode. To which he received the answer that everything is normal, this is inherent French tolerance, and soon the emigrants will assimilate and accept French values.
A few months later, pogroms began on the Paris suburbs.
A couple of years ago I came across an interview with a Parisian, mother of an 12-year-old boy. She said that every day in the same place her son was beaten by children from Arab immigrant families. And when she went to the police, she was told that if the ethnic French had been beaten, the police would have intervened. And so nothing can be done.
In conclusion - about the magazine Charlie Hebdo. As without this edition. If we understand democracy as the rule of the people (from the Greek δῆμος - “people” and κράτος - “power”), then this glorious journal interprets it as the absence of any brakes.
Cartoons of the Prophet led to the shooting of the editorial board less than a year ago. Without trying to find out who is to blame, we note that any terrorist act is a tragedy, and the government should take exhaustive measures to prevent this from happening in the future. As a matter of fact, any government is the managers whom the people hired to ensure their comfortable life, including security. A simple enough formula: I pay taxes, you protect me for my money. So, by the way, that Parisian woman also thought, whose son was beaten daily by Arab children.
What did the French government do according to the results of the analysis of the terrorist attack in the editorial office of Charlie Hebdo magazine? A lot. She organized a procession of leaders of European countries on the motto “We are Charly”. Serious blow to international terrorism.
Note in brackets that the idea of a march under the slogan “We are Beslan” or “We are Aleppo” did not occur to anyone. What marches? Well, rebels (oppositionists) killed some totalitarian barbarians. So what?
Of course, it can be stated that a lot has been done by the French government (besides the march). Both meetings were held, tasks were set, and powers of special services were expanded up to the perusal of private information without a court decision. However, the effectiveness of what was done the whole world saw three days ago.
To be continued ...