Military Review

Features of the national oil trading

75
The International Energy Agency issued a fresh outlook on world oil prices. According to experts' assumptions, the demand for oil before 2020 will grow at an extremely slow pace, at about a percent per year. Such a small increase in demand will not cover the oversupply in the market. Meanwhile, the Russians, trying to escape from the crisis, are trying to start independent trading in oil.


Features of the national oil trading


In the November report International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that the expected long period of low oil prices will benefit consumers, but will cause problems in the field of energy security: the world will increase dependence on a small number of producers with low costs. The experts of the International Energy Agency told about this in a document entitled “World Energy Outlook 2015”.

The report notes that the fall in oil prices set in motion those forces that can subsequently balance the market "with the help of high demand and low growth in supply." Yet such "balancing" mechanisms in the oil markets rarely work "smoothly". According to one of the scenarios, in 2020, oil may cost about 80 dollars per barrel on the market. In another scenario, prices may remain lower, and much longer.

Everything largely depends on low-cost global manufacturers. And ultimately, dependence on exported Middle Eastern oil will rise to the level that was last observed in the 1970s. This situation will affect energy security, including Asian consumers, who are the “end points” of regional oil trade. It is predicted that China's net oil imports by China by 2040 will be almost five times higher than oil imports by the United States, while India’s oil imports may exceed that of the entire European Union.

According to the baseline scenario, global energy demand will increase by almost a third between the 2013 and 2040 years. The basis of demand growth will be developing countries. On the other hand, states will adopt more energy efficient technologies. But even here the experts are not clear: a long period of low oil prices could undermine this crucial pillar of energy transformation.

In the run-up to the Paris summit on climate issues, it is becoming clear that the transformation of energy approaches is already underway: in 2014, almost half of the world's new generating capacity was built on renewable energy sources. WEO-2015 predicts that renewable energy sources can become the leading source of new energy supply from now to the 2040 year. New generation renewable energy sources will reach 50% in the EU by 2040, about 30% in China and Japan and will rise above 25% in the United States and India.

Oil may end up being held for a long time (up to 2020 of the year) at around 50 dollars. Further, the price will rise, but at a slow pace. The price of 85 dollars per barrel will be reached only by 2040 year. The price may be affected by the OPEC policy: if the cartel does not cut production, the low price scenario will be more likely.

Also, experts of International Energy Agency are confident that the growth of oil production by non-OPEC countries will stop by the 2020 year. Oil production in shale will be reduced in the USA. As for Russia, experts see great risks associated with the financing of large oil and gas projects.

To this we must add that Moscow is taking some measures to reduce its dependence on the influence of world markets.

This month will begin the test bidding of a new reference oil grade of Russian companies. This approach should increase the cost of Russian oil and untie it from the Brent quotes. In addition, we are talking about trading for rubles. He writes about it RBC.

Analysts remind that oil “Urals” and “ESPO” (supplied via the ESPO pipeline) is now sold at a discount compared to North Sea Brent, since there is no single and transparent pricing mechanism and supply guarantee. According to officials, the standard will make the Russian varieties more liquid and reduce the discount.

“In order for the Russian variety to be recognized as a price target by buyers on the international market, it is necessary that it be traded on the exchange at a transparent and understandable price, transportation and volumes of oil supplies are guaranteed to all bidders, and the trading volume must be at least 10-15 mln. year, or 3 million barrels per day".


A year and a half ago, in June, 2014, under the Ministry of Energy, a working group was established under the leadership of Deputy Minister Kirill Molodtsov. The group included representatives of oil companies and specialized agencies, in which the issues of creating a reference grade are being worked out. In September 2015 of the year at the conference on the global oil product markets Molodtsov noted that the Ministry of Energy is counting on the first sale of a new variety at the end of 2015 - the middle of 2016. It all starts with test sessions. Now, as RBC has become clear from the presentation of the head of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, Alexei Rybnikov, the general conditions for the supply of Russian oil through the specified stock exchange have been established, clearing and trading rules, futures specifications and trading software have been developed. There are also training seminars. The first oil sales are scheduled for November, Dmitry Rakhon Makhonin, head of the department for controlling the fuel and energy complex of the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS is a member of the working group at the Ministry of Energy), told RBC.

As Makhonin said, there will be economic incentives for oil companies: after all, “Urals” is undervalued, its price is only a derivative of “Brent”. At the same time, Urals is exported to Europe. FAS expects that without reference to the price for Brent, the new benchmark will be sold at a price comparable to Brent.

As for the possibility of ruble trade, Rosneft press secretary Mikhail Leontyev told RBC that the company is selling oil for rubles on the domestic market. He did not comment on the questions about export trade on the exchange. Representatives of other large companies (LUKoil, Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft and Zarubezhneft) did not respond to RBC requests.

A source at Rosneft told the agency that before the opening of the auction, it would be necessary to provide for a number of conditions, including ruble payments for supplies. The Bank of Russia must provide clearing for settlements in foreign currency without the participation of correspondent banks in the USA and Europe. It is necessary to create trading systems independent of the USA. It is necessary to provide preferential ruble loans to buyers who purchase oil through the exchange for rubles. You also need to ensure the liquidity of the exchange market of the ruble. Mr. Makhonin from the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) states that the possibility of payment in the Russian currency should be provided to bidders now, despite the ruble's volatility.

So, international experts see no reason for the increase in the price of oil on the world market in the coming years, or even decades. It is quite possible to agree with the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, since the supply of crude oil in the world is far ahead of demand.

Russia, whose economy and budget have a strong raw material dependence, is trying to find a way out of updating approaches to oil trading: first, developing transparent trading rules and decoupling from the price of the North Sea variety Brent; secondly, it is an attempt to sell a certain amount of oil for rubles. However, the second initiative looks extremely doubtful, since oil traders, of course, will doubt the feasibility of supplying oil for an unstable currency.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
75 comments
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  1. Same lech
    Same lech 16 November 2015 06: 44 New
    23
    Russia, whose economy and budget have a strong raw material dependence, is trying to find a way out of updating approaches to oil trading: first, developing transparent trading rules and decoupling from the price of the North Sea variety Brent; secondly, it is an attempt to sell a certain amount of oil for rubles. However, the second initiative looks extremely doubtful, since oil traders, of course, will doubt the feasibility of supplying oil for an unstable currency.


    It generally looks doubtful in all respects to save our economy ... it resembles mouse fuss.

    To do the RUSSIAN economy according to Western standards means to play by their rules ... what will come out of this is clear to any sane person.
    An example of CHINA is who makes his game in the economy according to his own rules and we need to learn from them.
    1. Grbear
      Grbear 16 November 2015 08: 35 New
      +8
      I agree with the bad. good
      The creation of this exchange is the same as adjusting the gear to a working gear pair and thinking that it will spin something. It will spin itself while pressed to one of the wheels. Clings to both - the teeth will fly with sparks.

      If we conduct an independent foreign policy, then we must be independent or, oriented to the extreme, self-oriented, in the economy. You can not be a little pregnant or beat on the wort and sag at the same time. hi
      1. Gani
        Gani 16 November 2015 12: 56 New
        +1
        You are right that this alone will not save, but this is also a necessary matter. how else to get rid of the dollar? So far, at least virtually. And Aluminum and cast iron, etc., generally oblige exporters, for example, to sell 20% for rubles on the stock exchange. It is clear that the market will regulate and link ruble quotes to world ones in bucks ... but the market will increase and the more, the more stable the ruble will be. In general, I understand little of this))), but I know, if this idea is correctly implemented, it is necessary and useful
        hi
    2. 2s1122
      2s1122 16 November 2015 11: 29 New
      +5
      You are wrong, Russia is looking for the opportunity to trade its raw materials according to its own rules, taking into account world experience. So all the best in the undertakings. love
      1. mirag2
        mirag2 16 November 2015 15: 39 New
        0
        just: Rosneft received an advance from an unknown buyer in the amount of 1 trillion rubles.
        They suspect that this is the Chinese. Infa from RBC.
      2. akendram
        akendram 16 November 2015 23: 24 New
        +1
        probably in the Russian language, there was a deuce in school. Due to world experience, what do you mean by this? This system was created by the Anglo-Saxons, and not by the Chinese, Indians, Brazilians or Indians. Oil prices are determined on the stock exchange and mainly on futures, and there are also Americans they rule, like gold, that determine the price from London. In this world soap bubble nothing healthy will be born, there will be a very big crisis that will lead to war, it has always been like this in history and it will continue to be so.
  2. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 16 November 2015 07: 07 New
    20
    The current state of affairs in the Russian economy is a consequence of an attempt to "integrate" into the Western economic system recklessly and thoughtlessly. How many years has Russia been striving to join the WTO? So what? Did this prevent our "partners" from using non-market pressure mechanisms? Sanctions - do they comply with WTO norms? If you sit down to play with cheaters, get ready to be stripped to your underpants. Or put a loaded revolver on the table ...
    1. akendram
      akendram 16 November 2015 23: 28 New
      +1
      everything is true. today there was an infa. that Japan is ready to consider the application of the Russian Federation to join the TTP (trans-Pacific partnership) -this is generally a drain of national wealth to the world capitalists. Just like in a fairy tale, MORE BEFORE THE SCARY
  3. Angro Magno
    Angro Magno 16 November 2015 07: 08 New
    +3
    In the oil industry, no one is going to curtail production. New wells both drilled and drilled. Therefore, the upcoming trading in rubles is not scary.
  4. venaya
    venaya 16 November 2015 07: 39 New
    +5
    So you read all this and you begin to understand how insulting our country is to trade non-renewable natural resources! Lord, is there really no other source of income for receiving foreign currency in the camp? Slowly the Russian land has become so impoverished that it has to be so humiliated. How all this is disgusting to understand.
    1. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 16 November 2015 08: 25 New
      +2
      What is humiliating in trading what our country is rich in? Everyone sells what is in abundance, and in return buys another product. Do not want to trade in oil - please. Only then, keep in mind that we import most of our cars, equipment, almost all our clothes, and much more. You can sit with oil, coal and steel, but with a bare backside in the literal sense of the word. And at least 20% of the population will be without work. And yet, whether there will be a need for oil in such an amount of years through 50 is a big question, it is quite possible other sources of energy will appear.
      1. Hello
        Hello 16 November 2015 09: 55 New
        16
        Quote: Nikolai K
        What is humiliating in trading what our country is rich in? Everyone sells what is in abundance, and in return buys another product. Do not want to trade in oil - please. Only then, keep in mind that we import most of our cars, equipment, almost all our clothes, and much more. You can sit with oil, coal and steel, but with a bare backside in the literal sense of the word. And at least 20% of the population will be without work. And yet, whether there will be a need for oil in such an amount of years through 50 is a big question, it is quite possible other sources of energy will appear.

        It is humiliating not to trade in raw materials, but to trade in only raw materials. Russia is not a banana republic and has excellent achievements in many areas, but for some reason they are developing neither shakily nor swell. This is a shame.
        1. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 16 November 2015 11: 57 New
          +8
          It is humiliating to plunder the money received from the sale of oil and invest it in London real estate, and not in production in one's own country. But this is already a question for the current leadership of the country, and not for the oil trade as such.
        2. The comment was deleted.
      2. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 10: 13 New
        +5
        [quote] [quote] [quote = Nikolai K] What is humiliating in the trade of what our country is rich in? Each one sells what he has in abundance, and in return buys another product. If you don't want to trade in oil, please. Only then keep in mind that we import most of the cars, equipment, almost all clothing and much more. You can sit with oil, coal and steel, but with a bare bottom in the literal sense of the word. And at least 20% of the population will be unemployed. [/ quote]

        And to me, Dear Nikolay, I think that the point is not in humiliation as such, in matters of trade in non-renewable resources. And the fact that someday these resources will be exhausted anyway. And then our children and grandchildren will no longer think about pride or respect, but about the possibility of survival as such. And while not having any distinct prospects, since in the present period of development of our country, the real development of our sphere of production of the final product, rather than raw materials, is not observed. Although there are a fair number of examples of the development of territories that do not have any resources at all. Take for example Singapore.
        Well, such thoughts are sometimes visited, colleague. hi
        1. lis-ik
          lis-ik 16 November 2015 11: 29 New
          +6
          But for me personally it’s a mystery how a certain circle of people without investing a penny in the main means of production seized state deposits and practically didn’t risk getting extra profits, sometimes even blackmailing the state, at that time, the vast majority of entrepreneurs in our country sometimes sold the latter to start a business. And after more than 20 years (by example), fabulously not rich, they continue to work hard for 15 hours a day, and investors have to look for a more or less large project. How did, in principle, subsurface resources become private? Yeltsin’s constitution, but I don’t remember that this project was put up for discussion!
          1. Uncle Joe
            Uncle Joe 16 November 2015 15: 33 New
            +4
            Quote: lis-ik
            How did, in principle, subsurface resources become private? Yeltsin Constitution
            And the illiteracy of the population, who loves to talk about the bad Yeltsin constitution.

            Article 9 1. Land and other natural resources are used and protected in the Russian Federation as the basis for the life and activities of peoples living in the corresponding territory.
            2. Land and other natural resources can be in private, state, municipal and other forms of ownership.

            They can - it doesn’t mean they should.


            Law of the Russian Federation "On Mineral Resources" dated 21.02.1992 N 2395-1. Article 1.2. Subsoil ownership.

            Subsoil within the borders of the territory of the Russian Federation, including underground space and minerals contained in the subsoil, energy and other resources, are state property. Issues of ownership, use and disposal of mineral resources are jointly the responsibility of the Russian Federation and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
            Subsoil plots may not be subject to purchase, sale, donation, inheritance, contribution, pledge or alienated in any other form. Subsoil use rights may be alienated or transferred from one person to another to the extent that their circulation is permitted by federal laws.
            Minerals and other resources extracted from the subsoil can be in federal state ownership, property of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, municipal, private and other forms of ownership under the terms of the license.
            1. Vladimir 1964
              Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 23: 55 New
              +1
              Quote: Uncle Joe
              The subsoil within the territory of the Russian Federation, including underground space and minerals, energy and other resources contained in the subsoil, are state property. The issues of ownership, use and disposal of mineral resources are under the joint jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation.

              So, what happens, Dear colleague, is the "guarantor" not working on it? belay Damn, and lied like a gray gelding about galleys. No.
              1. Sling cutter
                Sling cutter 16 November 2015 23: 58 New
                +2
                Quote: Vladimir 1964
                Damn, and lied like a gray gelding about galleys.

                lying is the hpp repeat
                1. Vladimir 1964
                  Vladimir 1964 17 November 2015 00: 08 New
                  +1
                  Quote: Stroporez
                  lying is the hpp

                  Thank you, Dear Airborne Forces, at least enlightened. And then I stopped at this "HPP" and honestly did not understand. good
                  1. Sling cutter
                    Sling cutter 17 November 2015 01: 05 New
                    +1
                    Quote: Vladimir 1964
                    even enlightened

                    Hello, Vladimir! hi
                    You have long been enlightened, judging by the comments good
                    I've read a neighboring branch about debt forgiveness laughing
                    I’m a rzhunemagu, there the Zaputinians are enlightened, laughing
                    It is not evening in 2016, many new fiscal laws will come into force ... and Oh ... oh, the miracle of the "dark" will begin to understand that the whole HPP is to milk and reduce the population ...
                    1. Vladimir 1964
                      Vladimir 1964 17 November 2015 01: 37 New
                      +1
                      Quote: Stroporez
                      Hello, Vladimir!
                      You have long been enlightened, judging by the comments
                      I've read a neighboring branch about debt forgiveness
                      I’m a rzhunemagu, there the Zaputinians are enlightened,
                      It is not evening in 2016, many new fiscal laws will come into force ... and Oh ... oh, the miracle of the "dark" will begin to understand that the whole HPP is to milk and reduce the population ...

                      Good night, colleague, good in every way. And then you recalled about 2016 and my mood worsened, so I am exclusively with kind words to you. yes
                      1. Sling cutter
                        Sling cutter 17 November 2015 02: 16 New
                        +1
                        Quote: Vladimir 1964
                        therefore I am with you exclusively with kind words.

                        Thank you, Comrade. yes
              2. Uncle Joe
                Uncle Joe 17 November 2015 01: 08 New
                +3
                Quote: Vladimir 1964
                So, what happens, Dear colleague, is the "guarantor" not working on it?
                Well, what are you - giving all the best laughing

                GDC Baimskaya allowed to mine gold in Chukotka
                The company is owned by Romanhouse Abramovich Millhouse and has owned these territories since 2008.
                http://abnews.ru/2015/07/04/gdk-baimskaya-razreshili-dobyvat-zoloto-na-chukotke/
                1. Vladimir 1964
                  Vladimir 1964 17 November 2015 01: 39 New
                  +1
                  Quote: Uncle Joe
                  Well, what are you - giving all the best

                  Poor thing, and no help whatsoever, and no where. wassat
                  Good night, colleague! hi
          2. akendram
            akendram 16 November 2015 23: 36 New
            0
            Do not rash salt on the wound. Only Comrade Stalin could give an answer to this riddle, but it is not. A pity.
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 16 November 2015 12: 03 New
          +1
          The wealth of Russia is its natural resources. China's wealth is its population and labor force (once cheap). We need to use what we have been given; sitting on wealth with a bare bottom is not the best way to use it. It will be good if our descendants thank us for the preserved natural resources. But if we do not restore the natural reproduction of the population in the country (and this also requires money), then I am afraid there will be no one to say "thank you". And you also need money for the same army to defend the territory in which this wealth is located. Otherwise, they will simply become someone else's wealth. Therefore, I do not see a problem in the fact that we are selling oil. The problem is how we manage money from
          this sale.
          1. Stena
            Stena 16 November 2015 23: 25 New
            0
            Quote: Nikolai K
            Russia's wealth is its natural resources

            Big mistake. Our main wealth is our people. Now, as soon as we understand this, we will have a socially oriented economy and rational disposal of resources and so on ... In the meantime, you consider yourself a pawn and a bargaining chip - such an attitude is everywhere. You must begin to respect yourself. Then the attitude of other people, including nits from city halls, etc. office - will change.
        4. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 16 November 2015 12: 03 New
          0
          The wealth of Russia is its natural resources. China's wealth is its population and labor force (once cheap). We need to use what we have been given; sitting on wealth with a bare bottom is not the best way to use it. It will be good if our descendants thank us for the preserved natural resources. But if we do not restore the natural reproduction of the population in the country (and this also requires money), then I am afraid there will be no one to say "thank you". And you also need money for the same army to defend the territory in which this wealth is located. Otherwise, they will simply become someone else's wealth. Therefore, I do not see a problem in the fact that we are selling oil. The problem is how we manage money from
          this sale.
          1. voyaka uh
            voyaka uh 16 November 2015 13: 11 New
            13
            for Nikolai K:
            "I don't see the problem that we sell oil." ///

            But in vain. Any natural resources are the bottom of the technological chain.
            If you do not sell crude oil, but gasoline (as the United States does), then profit
            take off at times. If plastic products (also made of oil) - at times.
            If complex valuable substances of organic chemistry (also from oil) -
            profits can be crazy.
      3. zoknyay82
        zoknyay82 16 November 2015 11: 12 New
        +4
        Oil is not only a source of energy! It is necessary to establish deep processing of oil and other resources, which will give jobs in our country, as well as relieve dependence on oil prices. To exchange natural resources for glass beads and mirrors is the fate of the Papuans.
        1. Vladimir 1964
          Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 11: 33 New
          +2
          Quote: zoknyay82
          Oil is not only a source of energy! It is necessary to establish deep processing of oil and other resources, which will give jobs in our country, as well as relieve dependence on oil prices. To exchange natural resources for glass beads and mirrors is the fate of the Papuans.

          Sergey, and our DAMA government knows about this! belay

          PS Dear colleague, do not consider it an insult, just an evil irony. hi
      4. Uncle Joe
        Uncle Joe 16 November 2015 15: 42 New
        +6
        Quote: Nikolai K
        What is humiliating in trading what our country is rich in?
        Indeed, what is humiliating is that Russian oil burns not in Russia, and ensures the work of foreign, not Russian, enterprises whose products, for lack of their own, Russia forced buy?


        Do you know how the "energy superpower" (Putin's phrase) differs from the banana republic?

        Bananas are a renewable resource.
      5. akendram
        akendram 16 November 2015 23: 33 New
        +3
        DO NOT TRADE OIL, BUT OIL REFINING PRODUCTS. AND EVERYTHING WAS NORMAL, YES HERE ABOUT ABOUT ANY YEAR BACK WAS PERFORMED SO CALLED THE NERVOUS MANEUVER, CAN BE HEARED. A WAS THE GIRL OF THE GERMANY ON OUR GASOLINE RIDED.
        1. Vladimir 1964
          Vladimir 1964 17 November 2015 00: 24 New
          0
          Quote: akendram
          DO NOT TRADE OIL, BUT OIL REFINING PRODUCTS. AND EVERYTHING WAS NORMAL, YES HERE ABOUT ABOUT ANY YEAR BACK WAS PERFORMED SO CALLED THE NERVOUS MANEUVER, CAN BE HEARED. A WAS THE GIRL OF THE GERMANY ON OUR GASOLINE RIDED.

          No, colleague, about the "year" you "bent", fifteen years ago, at least "twirled the maneuver." wassat
    2. Hon
      Hon 16 November 2015 09: 33 New
      +1
      Quote: venaya
      Lord, is there really no other source of income for receiving foreign currency in the camp?

      Well, what else for example? there is a weapon, there is a grain and much of the same, but even all together it cannot block oil and gas. even from metallurgy, income is less. we do not have such production as in China or Germany, the situation of our agricultural producers is not as free-flowing as that of the western ones. Investments are much less likely to come to us, according to the level of entrepreneurship, Russia is in 79th place, according to studies by the World Bank (WB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC). The assessment was carried out according to 10 parameters: entry and exit from the business; procedure for obtaining licenses and loans; attitude to staff; registration of property; investor protection; tax burden; foreign trade operations and contract execution. As a result, the most affordable business is in New Zealand, Singapore, the USA, Canada and Norway, and the most inaccessible is in African countries, which is not surprising because Africa is the “slowest” reform region in the world.
      where does the development of the economy come from at our interest rates on loans? just pump natural resources, no more.
    3. Dry_T-50
      Dry_T-50 16 November 2015 11: 05 New
      -1
      Quote: venaya
      So you read all this and you begin to understand how insulting our country is to trade non-renewable natural resources! Lord, is there really no other source of income for receiving foreign currency in the camp? Slowly the Russian land has become so impoverished that it has to be so humiliated. How all this is disgusting to understand.

      #Thank you
    4. 2s1122
      2s1122 16 November 2015 11: 48 New
      0
      maybe it offends you that you are not selling these raw materials, I mean those who are so worried about resources
    5. Xsanchez
      Xsanchez 16 November 2015 20: 42 New
      0
      Why non-renewable, very renewable, read new theories of the origin of oil.
  5. sa-ag
    sa-ag 16 November 2015 07: 40 New
    -2
    Dumping competition with CA? Will they sell to China for rubles? Demand has fallen, accumulated oil reserves in the world are full, trade for rubles is such an attempt to plug gaps in the Pension Fund?
    1. Mooh
      Mooh 16 November 2015 08: 52 New
      +4
      Trading for rubles is an attempt to untie the ruble from the dollar and deprive Pindos of part of unearned income. It is unlikely to seriously affect the market and quotes, but this had to be done for a long time in any case. In addition to the economic effect, this is at least some kind of prestige of the domestic currency.
      1. Hon
        Hon 16 November 2015 09: 54 New
        +1
        Quote: MooH
        Trading for rubles is an attempt to untie the ruble from the dollar and deprive Pindos of part of unearned income. It is unlikely to seriously affect the market and quotes, but this had to be done for a long time in any case. In addition to the economic effect, this is at least some kind of prestige of the domestic currency.

        the problem is that such attempts have been going on for a long time, but do not want to buy oil for rubles.
        1. Vladimir 1964
          Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 11: 09 New
          +1
          Quote: Hon
          the problem is that such attempts have been going on for a long time, but do not want to buy oil for rubles.


          So, Dear colleague, "trying is not torture" is not very painful, especially when you don't really want to (to Ms. Nabiulina). hi
          1. Hon
            Hon 16 November 2015 11: 17 New
            0
            if I’m not mistaken, they’ve been trying since 2006, even before Nabiulina
            1. Vladimir 1964
              Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 11: 19 New
              +1
              Quote: Hon
              if I’m not mistaken, they’ve been trying since 2006, even before Nabiulina


              Colleague, let me ask you a question. And who told you that they’re really trying, on TV?
              1. 2s1122
                2s1122 16 November 2015 11: 58 New
                +3
                it’s better to try to ruin the oil trade for rubles, than just do nothing to get dirty and wait for the weather to turn gray from the sea
                1. Vladimir 1964
                  Vladimir 1964 17 November 2015 00: 44 New
                  0
                  Quote: 2s1122
                  it’s better to try to ruin the oil trade for rubles, than just do nothing to get dirty and wait for the weather to turn gray from the sea

                  Michael, and I don’t mind, it was good. hi
      2. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 11: 05 New
        +1
        Quote: MooH
        Trading for rubles is an attempt to untie the ruble from the dollar and deprive Pindos of part of unearned income. It is unlikely to seriously affect the market and quotes, but this had to be done for a long time in any case. In addition to the economic effect, this is at least some kind of prestige of the domestic currency.

        Maybe you are right, Dear Andrey, I will not argue. I will only draw your attention to the fact that trading in rubles largely reduces the possibilities of the ruling clique to withdraw profits abroad, since it will not willingly fall under the control of the legislation in the field of banking payments. So think, colleague, is it necessary for “Sechuns” and others like that? So after all, children will not have enough to live abroad, and the new plane is under threat.
        Sarcasm of course, a colleague, I will not hide. hi
        1. Xsanchez
          Xsanchez 16 November 2015 20: 56 New
          +1
          Well, we have the people who are cunning to come up with gray schemes, so the reduction in the cut of dough, unfortunately,
          not expected.
      3. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 11: 38 New
        +1
        Quote: MooH
        Trading for rubles is an attempt to untie the ruble from the dollar and deprive Pindos of part of unearned income. It is unlikely to seriously affect the market and quotes, but this had to be done for a long time in any case. In addition to the economic effect, this is at least some kind of prestige of the domestic currency.

        Dear Andrey, trading for rubles will deprive the management clique of uncontrolled income, but does she need it? Cottages are not built in Samara or Tver, but on the Cote d'Azur and in Florida. And in the case of ruble reckoning, it will not have to be declared in Russia by will.
      4. Uncle Joe
        Uncle Joe 16 November 2015 15: 46 New
        +2
        Quote: MooH
        Trading for rubles is an attempt to untie the ruble from the dollar
        Answer yourself to the question - "what place is the ruble pegged to the dollar?"- and don't write such nonsense anymore.
    2. user
      user 16 November 2015 09: 56 New
      +2
      trading for rubles is it such an attempt to plug gaps in the Pension Fund?


      Yes, dear, this is an attempt, if not untying the ruble from the dollar, then at least an attempt to sell its hydrocarbons for rubles (albeit on the territory of the Russian Federation).
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 11: 43 New
        +3
        Quote: user
        Yes, dear, this is an attempt, if not untying the ruble from the dollar, then at least an attempt to sell its hydrocarbons for rubles (albeit on the territory of the Russian Federation).

        And you, Dear colleague, can you name at least one country in the world where domestic prices are calculated from the dollar? Let me ease your work, these are Russia, Ukraine and Nigeria (damn, it turned out three lol) In all other countries, the price of gasoline domestically does not increase with the fall in oil prices. belay
  6. Riv
    Riv 16 November 2015 07: 45 New
    10
    And is it not fate to sell not crude oil, but its refined products? Gasoline, diesel fuel, plastics ... Of course, it’s more difficult to synthesize, but an oil refinery is not a very complicated thing, and in a couple of years it’s quite possible to establish production.
    What's the problem?
    1. Gloomy
      Gloomy 16 November 2015 08: 23 New
      +6
      Yes, it's time for a long time already. But this needs to be invested, but why when the money went by the river.
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 12: 46 New
        +2
        Quote: Gloomy
        Yes, it's time for a long time already. But this needs to be invested, but why when the money went by the river.

        Here, Dear Alexander, why in this case it was necessary to think, and even invest in the analytics of the world market, when dachas are being built in Florida and the Cote d'Azur, children are studying at Oxford, and the people quietly support the government's heroic efforts to infringe on it ...
        Sarcasm, colleague, unfortunately it is impossible otherwise, they will instantly be declared an "oppositionist", and I love my Motherland, and as a person who has lived for many years abroad and returned home, I want it to become better, according to our SLAVIC worldview! In which, unfortunately, our ruling "fufelita" does not fall.
        I’m talking about the fact that love for the motherland and the current leadership of the country are all different things.
        I, as a pensioner of the Armed Forces for the Motherland, but not as it is presented to us by "the rulers from Edryona m ...." hi
    2. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 16 November 2015 08: 29 New
      +2
      The problem is the high cost of capital. Oil refining is capital-intensive production and at current interest rates we are not competitive in world markets despite our own cheap raw materials. Until he cuts rates, in general, production will be unprofitable.
      1. Makk
        Makk 16 November 2015 09: 45 New
        -1
        Imagine what will happen if loans in our country are cheap. It is necessary to ban consumer loans (because brains are not given out with a bank loan), tight control is established over enterprises. Cheap loans are possible only if most of the goods consumed are produced in the country, or their production is controlled.
      2. Hon
        Hon 16 November 2015 10: 00 New
        0
        Quote: Nikolai K
        despite cheap own raw materials.

        and who said that we have cheap raw materials? the lightest oil in the Arabs, they are now dumping
        1. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 16 November 2015 12: 41 New
          0
          We export oil, for example, to Europe and China, where it is then processed into oil products. Where do you think oil is cheaper from them or ours?
          1. Hon
            Hon 16 November 2015 13: 01 New
            -1
            Quote: Nikolai K
            We export oil, for example, to Europe and China, where it is then processed into oil products. Where do you think oil is cheaper from them or ours?

            and oil is traded on the exchange, and the price is set by the exchange. Well, we will not export, Europe will buy from the Saudis and process. Europe is happy, the Saudis are happy, but we have crude oil.
        2. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 16 November 2015 12: 41 New
          0
          We export oil, for example, to Europe and China, where it is then processed into oil products. Where do you think oil is cheaper from them or ours?
    3. Hon
      Hon 16 November 2015 09: 59 New
      0
      Quote: Riv
      And is it not fate to sell not crude oil, but its refined products? Gasoline, diesel fuel, plastics ... Of course, it’s more difficult to synthesize, but an oil refinery is not a very complicated thing, and in a couple of years it’s quite possible to establish production.
      What's the problem?

      the problem is that for this it is necessary: ​​1 to find investments; 2 get the technology (those who have it are in no hurry to part with them); 3 to find buyers, the market is conservative, and new players to enter oh how easy it is, but also to survive in competition.
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 10: 46 New
        +2
        Quote: Hon
        the problem is that for this it is necessary: ​​1 to find investments; 2 get the technology (those who have it are in no hurry to part with them); 3 to find buyers, the market is conservative, and new players to enter oh how easy it is, but also to survive in competition.


        Still, dear colleague, I repeat, but I want to add another fourth component of the problem, albeit an empirical one, but nevertheless very important. These are: Confidence in the stability of economic and fiscal policies. Something that does not exist in our country at all, for legislation in the economic sphere and tax policy are built solely in the interests of the ruling group, which is absolutely not interested in the interests of the people. There are a lot of examples; pay attention to the number of changes to already adopted legislative acts in economic matters.
        If interested, then take an interest in how things are in this area, in the same Norway, where over the past 10 years, the only legislative decision has been made in the economic sphere in matters of economic regulation.
        Do not blame me for the addition, colleague. hi
    4. user
      user 16 November 2015 10: 07 New
      +2
      And is it not fate to sell not crude oil, but its refined products?


      When oil cost more than $ 100, the oilmen were not interested, and now there is nowhere to get long-term money, and the relevant US structures will make sure that the relevant oil refining technologies are not transferred to the Russian Federation, but about their own developments - here, as usual, they did not give money , but no one particularly asked because "what we don't have we will buy in the west", and when the rooster pecked in one place, then "it's too late to drink Borjomi". Today, even if the sanctions and all kinds of restrictions are lifted, the development of our oil refining industry (although, to be honest, something is being done, some projects are slowly moving forward) is a matter of more than a decade.
    5. Vladimir 1964
      Vladimir 1964 16 November 2015 10: 34 New
      +3
      Quote: Riv
      And is it not fate to sell not crude oil, but its refined products? Gasoline, diesel fuel, plastics ... Of course, it’s more difficult to synthesize, but an oil refinery is not a very complicated thing, and in a couple of years it’s quite possible to establish production.
      What's the problem?

      Do not blame me, Dear Riv, but with the existing administrative-oligarchic system in our country, this is unfortunately not possible. For the manufacturer is not interested in long-term capital involvement without confidence in the stability of his production. Well, our system is not very stable. In our country, with its huge reserves of minerals and unstable, and sometimes simply criminal, actions of the leadership, no one knows what will happen tomorrow. And this is very clearly seen on the example of our legislation, which no matter how contributes to the development of interest in production, because it acts solely for the sake of momentary interests to enrich the "top" of society, without any reserves for the future within our country. Our oligarchs and state corporations, together with the country's leadership, tend to quickly "squeeze out" funds and withdraw from the homeland.
      Something like that, in my subjective opinion, colleagues. hi
      1. Riv
        Riv 16 November 2015 12: 54 New
        -1
        Here is how? Zer buzzing ... Can you name the surnames offhand and who has taken out how much?
        It's not about the oligarchs. The same "Gazprom" is by no means in private hands. The state owns a controlling stake. But! There are Germans on Gazprom's board of directors. The German was also in charge of laying the Nord Stream, if my memory serves me right. Ruhrgas has a stake ...
        This is an example.
  7. eleronn
    eleronn 16 November 2015 08: 17 New
    +3
    These "experts" do not know what will happen by the evening, and the forecast for ten years is always welcome!
  8. Boris55
    Boris55 16 November 2015 08: 23 New
    +2
    ... The November report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that the expected long period of low oil prices ...

    Who knows, who knows ... everything is in the hands of the Saudis: "... the Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi threatened Western consumers that KSA will increase the price of crude oil up to 89 $ per barrelsince the Kingdom's oil revenues have plummeted ... "http://79.120.77.163/001/page.php?id=367
    And our companies, increasing oil production, contribute to its low price.
  9. fif21
    fif21 16 November 2015 08: 30 New
    +3
    Quote: Riv
    but an oil refinery is not a very complicated thing, and in a couple of years, production can be fully adjusted. What's the problem?

    Apparently the problem is that the "circle" of oil players in Russia has been defined, and it is an extra headache for them to build an oil refinery and "orgsintez", it is easier to sell raw materials. And attempts to build even mini-refineries are nipped in the bud (they do not want to have competitors) Data on oil reserves in the US are not correct, to put it mildly, but they are capable of influencing the price of raw materials and consumers use it. Who benefits from buying oil (raw materials) for dollars? Of course not Russia laughing Who benefits from selling oil for dollars? Oil companies !!! But the Russian state benefits from the fact that oil is sold for rubles, and it will not be necessary to "persuade" exporters to share currency to support the ruble and develop other sectors of the economy, but here, as they say, the interests of exporters do not coincide with the interests of the state.
  10. Nikolay K
    Nikolay K 16 November 2015 08: 31 New
    +3
    All forecasts of oil prices, built on the analysis of supply and demand, in the current conditions are meaningless. Oil is politics and prices are set in offices, not on exchanges.
  11. hotrod
    hotrod 16 November 2015 08: 41 New
    +3
    The report and the whole conversation around oil "write" this information war in its purest form. The problem is that oil is not really a marketable asset.
    The truth is that world oil production has been falling for 10 years already, it’s not without reason that everyone is drilling shale, which is impossible to imagine with a good life, when oil flows by gravity. The world is experiencing oil hunger, not yet catastrophic, or even acute, but hunger. But in the next 10 years, everything will change dramatically. And we will look at 2015 as we are now looking at in 1980, when oil was at $ 10 from the year 2012, when it was worth $ 120

    ps oil is not a market asset, because the places of production, oil parameters of a particular field, volumes and pipelines are precisely defined, not only the buyer depends on the seller, but the seller depends on the buyer. Therefore, prices for a short period can be untied from common sense, and a short period in oil production is a couple of years. And oil trading through oil futures for 9/10 paper trading.
  12. Was mammoth
    Was mammoth 16 November 2015 08: 50 New
    +5
    Russia can be self-sufficient. Rarely anyone in the world can afford it. The USSR could produce everything from needles to rockets. This does not mean that we should refuse what someone is doing better. But, we must refuse to sell raw materials altogether, but sell the final product. Surplus value, however. Do not give her away for a great life.
    Not so bad. wink The management of "Gazprom" considered it necessary to raise their payments. "Poor", however. And the government does not know where to get the money. It offers the common people to "tighten their belts."
    https://news.mail.ru/economics/23967747/?frommail=1
    1. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 16 November 2015 09: 12 New
      -6
      The USSR could not even feed its own citizens; they bought wheat in Canada. And this is in the presence of fertile chernozems, mineral fertilizers and the largest fleet of tractors and combines. And the deficit was an overwhelming amount of consumer goods: from clothing to televisions and cars. And yes, we knew how to produce everything, especially needles and rockets.
      1. Was mammoth
        Was mammoth 16 November 2015 10: 12 New
        +1
        Did I write that everything was in the Soviet Union? I wrote that the USSR is an attempt, in many respects successful, to build a just society. And this is during those tests that fell on our country in the XNUMXth century.
      2. Uncle Joe
        Uncle Joe 16 November 2015 15: 58 New
        +2
        Quote: Nikolai K
        The USSR could not even feed its own citizens, they bought wheat in Canada
        The USSR fed its citizens with Canadian feed grain? laughing

        And there was an overwhelming majority of consumer goods in short supply.
        In what period and for what reason?
      3. Boris55
        Boris55 16 November 2015 17: 29 New
        0
        Quote: Nikolai K
        The USSR could not even feed its own citizens; they bought wheat in Canada.

        The USSR bought grain in Canada BUT, not for itself, but for Cuba - it turned out cheaper than delivering it there.
        At least they explained it to us then.
        1. brother2
          brother2 18 November 2015 00: 07 New
          0
          And then she forgave all the debts of Cuba, and so on with all the other countries with whom we were friends and eventually swelled. Although we still forgive debts. You can look on the Internet to whom and how much we forgave only officially, not printing dollars at home, but earning them with sweat and blood ...
  13. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 16 November 2015 08: 56 New
    0
    It turns out, if in a simple language - maybe for everyone? For specifics - no data?
    In this theory is not strong.
  14. anip
    anip 16 November 2015 09: 21 New
    +5
    To this we must add that Moscow is taking some measures to reduce its dependence on the influence of world markets.

    Oh, oh, and how? And read on:
    Testing will begin this month with a new benchmark oil grade from Russian companies. This approach should increase the cost of Russian oil and untie it from quotes of the Brent variety. In addition, we are talking about trading for rubles. About this writes "RBC".

    As you can see, not the development of industry and agriculture, but the search for someone to sell more expensive oil. Is this called "addiction reduction"? As Putin's economy was based on raw materials, it remains. And it will remain for a long time, because they have no mind, except to steal and sell.

    As for the possibility of ruble trade, the Rosneft spokesman Mikhail Leontyev told RBC that the company is trading oil for rubles in the domestic market.

    Yeah, they would have sold it for dollars inside the country.
    He did not comment on questions about export trading on the exchange. Representatives of other large companies (LUKoil, Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft and Zarubezhneft) did not respond to RBC’s requests.

    Right, what is there to comment on? Only dollars, which, nafig, rubles, is it really still not clear to someone? Neither the current government nor the oligarchy (especially from raw materials) are interested in making the ruble a solid and stable world currency, because it will be more difficult to rob and deceive the people.
  15. ogr2008
    ogr2008 16 November 2015 09: 47 New
    +2
    The most interesting thing is that if OPEC countries wanted to raise the price of oil, it would rise. Reduce production (at least temporarily) and that’s it. Moreover, there is supply and demand ... There is a deliberate destruction of the Russian economy. And if our government does not find a way out of this situation, the collapse of the USSR will seem like child's play ...
    1. traveler
      traveler 17 November 2015 00: 17 New
      0
      they can and can do this, but they don’t, for political reasons, know everything.
      Thus, it turns out to be a rather stupid situation - Russia and the Saudis and Co. have bitten across Syria by and large due to the pipeline. we were afraid of competition in the European hydrocarbon market and loss of income, they wanted to compete with us and increase revenues, and as a result, one and the other suffer losses, possibly more than our or their estimated lost profits. But you could just agree on the division of the European pie, so that everyone would be fine.
      as a result, the ambitions and aplomb of leaders prevent a sober assessment of the situation and act in the interests of their own states.
  16. olimpiada15
    olimpiada15 16 November 2015 10: 26 New
    +4
    The Russian economic bloc, with tenacity worthy of better use, cuts down the branch on which it sits.
    The idea of ​​integrating the country's economy into the world is tempting, but this is just a slogan.
    The world economy, founded by the USA and the West, does not crave the infusion of new economies — they are competitors for it, no more.
    All that is needed from the Russian Federation is the supply of cheap raw materials, the cheaper the better. The integration processes are set up in such a way as not to grow competitors, by any means, including political.
    Russia should use its self-sufficiency, and not rush with liberal slogans.
    First of all, Russia should have low energy prices on the domestic market — this is what is needed for the development of the country's economy.
    But while the Russian elite are lackeys of the West, this cannot happen. The lackeys serve the dish that the gentlemen demand, and the gentlemen demand cheap energy.
    In the US, the cost of gasoline is about $ 1 per liter, and in the Russian Federation it always only grows so that any production is unprofitable.
  17. bmv04636
    bmv04636 16 November 2015 12: 35 New
    +4
    at least they would get rid of the dollar in Russia, otherwise the tariffs for pumping oil at the country's ports are indicated and paid in dollars. Well, how do you respect yourself?
  18. hitech
    hitech 16 November 2015 19: 05 New
    +2
    I always wondered if oil would end in Russia, and then what? ...
    1. hotrod
      hotrod 16 November 2015 23: 33 New
      0
      ^) and then long live nuclear energy!