Moscow hosted the conference “New Challenges and Threats to Stability in Russia - a Forecast and Measures to Neutralize and Counter It”. It was organized by the Club of Military Commanders of the Russian Federation and the Military Academy of the General Staff. The article proposed to readers of the "MIC" echoes the provisions of the main report presented at the conference.
By virtue of its geopolitical position, Russia is like a link between the East and the West and is of interest to the main world actors as a key region, a source of resources and a possible ally in opposing other centers of power. At the same time, the Russian Federation is considered today by the United States of America as a serious obstacle in their attempts to establish world domination, while the EU countries obediently follow in Washington's wake. Challenges and threats to the stability of the development of our country acquire new content and global scope.
The bipolar world order has been destroyed, the unipolar world has not taken place, the multipolar world has not yet taken shape. Today, global processes are shaped by three geopolitical forces — financial capital, the West, and an aggregate of Eastern-type civilizations.
The world community missed the moment for an adequate response to the emergence of the "Islamic state". Elimination of Bin Laden did not put an end to the ideology personified by him. The reincarnation of the Taliban and the merging of it with the IG marked by experts carries the threat of even greater instability on the planet.
“Religious preachers have ceded leverage on the consciousness of believers to recruiters from terrorist centers”
Islamists view their ideology as messianic, and terror and armed violence as the only possible means of achieving the goal. IG is closely intertwined with cross-border crime, oil smuggling, looted historical and cultural values, human and drug trafficking.
The merger of the IS with the most dangerous types of crime, its compliance with the use as a tool of influence on political processes, including the elimination of regimes, the collapse of states, the most barbaric methods of fighting, the ruthlessness and cruelty of the civilian population, the search for access to arms mass destruction - all this puts the IG to the highest level in the rating of threats to international and regional security.
The expansion of terrorist ideology is particularly acute in countries where the Islamist factor can rely on a certain social base. This is directly related to our multi-ethnic and multi-religious country.
What can the state oppose to this threat? Religion as an institution (any confession) loses here. Unjust living conditions, sedentary social elevators, unequal rights of citizens for full development in their state, societal vices - corruption, criminality, elevation of distortions into the virtue of human nature - all this differs from what spiritual leaders are trying to put into the consciousness of their flocks. Expectations that a believer will unconditionally accept the sermon as a guide to life are not justified. On the other hand, the ideas of retribution, ascent to the clearing of living space from the “infidels” are easily assimilated by the disadvantaged, and even by well-to-do, but people who have unsatisfied ambitions. Thus, the conservative religion gave way to the influence of the consciousness of believers on the recruiting structures of the terrorist centers.
“The only sure way to fight international terrorism is to act in advance, fight and destroy militants and terrorists in the territories they have already seized, do not wait for them to come to our home,” the Russian president said at a meeting with members of the government.
In response to the official appeal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for military assistance, Vladimir Putin 30 September submitted a proposal to the Federation Council and received consent to use the contingent of the Russian Armed Forces outside the country based on generally accepted principles and norms of international law.
It was primarily about the use of the Air Force. It is the effective actions of the Russian aviation, as well as the large-scale offensive by the Syrian army against the militants of the “Islamic State” are forcing terrorists to leave previously held lines, retreat and gain a foothold in unprepared positions. By the way, in the ranks of the IG, according to experts, there are up to 8000 immigrants from the Russian Federation and the countries of the Commonwealth.
The decisive actions of Russia aimed at supporting the Syrian government forces provoked a mixed reaction in the world. Already on October 1, the Permanent Representative of Saudi Arabia to the United Nations demanded to stop the air strikes of the Russian Air Force. On October 2, a similar appeal was made to the Russian Federation by the Turkish Foreign Ministry, which issued a joint statement by the governments of France, Germany, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The fact is that the first Russian airstrikes were inflicted on command posts, warehouses and bases of insurgents, which, as we understand, were raised by opponents of the official authorities of Syria.
October 7 four missile ships of the Caspian flotilla The Russian Navy inflicted a blow on infrastructure facilities of Islamic State militants in Syria. 26 launches of SLCMs were made. Successfully hit 11 targets at ranges up to 1500 kilometers. The very next day, leading media in the United States and Great Britain posted materials in which they noted that the Caliber KR had shown high efficiency in combat conditions, which aroused the wariness of the NATO military command.
Vladimir Putin at the UN General Assembly clearly formulated Russia's position: “We propose to be guided not by ambitions, but by common values and common interests based on international law, to unite efforts to solve the new problems we face and to create a truly broad international antiterrorist coalition. Like the anti-Hitler coalition, it could rally various forces in its ranks, ready to resolutely resist those who, like the Nazis, sow evil and misanthropy. ”
With the beginning of the invasion of Europe by the refugees, Ukraine with its own problems relegated to the second, if not to the third plan. Nevertheless, the situation here is still fraught with serious consequences for the Russian Federation.
23 of the year after the collapse of the USSR in the Square was a strengthened Ukrainization, corresponded история countries, changing historical values. From April 2014, the Kiev authorities are trying to pacify citizens living in Donetsk and Lugansk regions who disagree with the nationalist and Russophobic policies carried out in the state.
The official position of Russia on this issue was expressed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: “The conflict in Ukraine has no military solution. There is no reasonable alternative to the peaceful settlement of the internal Ukrainian crisis on the basis of the complete and unconditional implementation of the Minsk agreements of February this year. ”
After the free will of the residents of Crimea and Sevastopol in March 2014 and their entry into the Russian Federation, the leadership of the United States, the European Union and the satellite countries of the West imposed sanctions measures against our country and its citizens. As you know, they pursue two goals: the weakening of the Russian economy and the changing position of the Russian Federation on major international issues.
Under international law, it is possible to impose sanctions on any country only with the approval of the UN Security Council, but the US and the EU ignore this procedure and impose restrictions at their own discretion.
Western economic measures primarily concern the limitation of the presence of state-owned companies of the Russian Federation on the world market, the ban on the supply of dual-use technologies, and the supply of defense products. Collapsed military cooperation. Political sanctions are reduced to depriving the Russian delegation of the words at the PACE meetings, stopping the issuance of visas to parliamentarians, prohibiting entry of statesmen, businessmen, actors and journalists into the “black lists” of government officials.
Other threats in close proximity to our borders do not weaken. The Baltic states are pursuing an anti-Russian policy, encouraging the revival of nationalistic ideology, helping to expand the base of NATO forces, and conducting joint exercises on their territories to repel imaginary aggression. For more than 20 years, Moldova’s relations with the unrecognized Transnistrian Republic have not been settled; protests from outside have been growing, protests have been heard at rallies calling for a change of power, unification with Romania, and demands for Russia to withdraw peacekeepers from Transnistria. In Armenia, there is a controlled increase in protest anti-government sentiment, the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh persists, tensions in relations with Azerbaijan continue unabated, and the business elite are looking more and more closely towards the West. With the change of power in Tbilisi, the country's distancing from Russia has not decreased, Georgia and Azerbaijan are consistently being drawn into NATO. The parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan were successful for the authorities, but attempts to destabilize the situation in the country will most likely continue, the clan confrontation "north-south" is not weakening, radical Islam is gaining momentum. Uzbekistan strives to maintain neutrality, leads its game in the region, supports international initiatives based primarily on its national interests, but sees itself as the main subject in the region. The latent internal opposition of Tajikistan is uniting, external influence is also growing here, the immediate threat from Afghanistan is intensifying, and the contradictions with Uzbekistan regarding water use are conserved. Turkmenistan lives its life closed to the outside world, the leadership authority rests on social policy and the rigid suppression of dissent.
At this stage, we are witnessing a rise in China's interstate cooperation with Russia in various fields, the proximity of positions on many international issues. Previously put forward territorial claims are removed from the agenda. The growth of economic potential determines the growing role of the PRC, including in the development of political processes in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world, military-technical cooperation with the Russian Federation is at a high level.
As for Japan, due to the dispute over the ownership of the South Kuril Islands (Kunashir, Iturup, Shikotan and the Habomai group), Moscow and Tokyo cannot sign a peace treaty.
The internal political situation, the state of our society also cause some concern and concern. Social tensions are growing, the prospect of interethnic and interfaith conflicts is spreading, the Far East and Eastern Siberia are becoming empty, the North Caucasus is still unstable.
Security problems are growing in the Arctic region of Russia.
Factors such as are not conducive to confidence in the future:
- increase in prices for housing and communal services;
- tax burden on real estate;
-the uncertainty of pension reform;
- reorganization of medical services for the population, expansion of the list of paid medical services, rising prices for medicines and their inaccessibility - especially in rural areas in the regions;
-reduction of the general educational level of pupils and students;
- paid services in preschool institutions, sports sections, which limit the availability of classes for children of many families, even with average incomes.
The judicial system does not add optimism and faith in justice. The selectiveness of law enforcement causes discontent, which vividly demonstrates the example of condemnation and release of the official of the central office of the Ministry of Defense Yevgenia Vasilyeva, especially against the background of five years ’imprisonment with serving a sentence in a strict regime colony with the deprivation of military rank and state awards of the former commander Vladimir Chirkin for allegedly received bribe in the amount of 20 thousand dollars.
The fight against corruption is reduced to an exemplary demonstration on television of high-profile revelations (for example, the case about the protection of gambling business by prosecutors of the Moscow region, which ended quietly, imperceptibly and with impunity). The situation around the former head of Komi, the mayor of Syktyvkar and their accomplices, the governor of Sakhalin, the vice-governor of Kuban, and other high-profile cases is well known.
These are examples of the federal level. In the cities of the regional, district importance, the village administration is becoming more transparent. Krasnogorsk shooting in the administration building is an example.
But has anyone heard about the responsibility of those officials who selected candidates for leadership positions, represented them for appointment, supervised activities?
This is only part of the problems that negatively affect the minds, moods and perception of everyday reality.
A critical mass of negativity can affect the internal situation in the country in the most unpredictable way. The reason for the outbreak of discontent will always be. To provoke it can any factors - both in place and in time:
- the forces of the radical opposition, involving young people in their ranks, including students, through participation in the work of various clubs, societies, foundations, associations, forums, gatherings and other forms of disseminating their ideas;
football fans (their assets in the capital alone reach 50 thousand people);
- foreign workers, of which there are more than 11 million in the country, including a million refugees (of which only 2,5 million people are in Moscow only);
-organized national diasporas, radical Islamists, terrorist elements - an ideal environment that, with certain training and funding, can destabilize the situation in the capital or regions.
To these problems it is necessary to attract in every way the attention of heads of state structures responsible for defense, security and stability of the situation. It is necessary to know the real state of affairs in the regions, to foresee and take decisive measures to neutralize challenges and threats.
Examples to follow in history is enough. In June, 1989, on Tiananmen Square, China confirmed the thesis that the government must be decisive, act confidently, and, if necessary, quite tough.
In 1993 in our country, only decisive actions by the internal affairs agencies and internal forces, in cooperation with other security forces, stopped the negative development of the situation in Moscow and prevented the modern Maidan scenario.
Russia's proposals for expanding the coalition and coordinating the efforts of the participating countries to jointly fight the Islamic State militants, search for new opportunities for interaction and prevent conflicts of interest in the region deserve all respect. Western states should temper ambition, even renounce some principles following the example of the anti-Hitler coalition, when the Nazi regime in Germany was defeated by joint efforts.
Today, the stability of the situation in Russia, taking into account both external and internal threats, is being put to the test and pressure in almost all major areas - political, economic, military, financial.
It should be recognized that the new, undoubtedly, serious source of threats to national interests, security and the preservation of stability of Russia are the ensuing rivalry and the struggle of various states for control over strategic reserves of energy and other raw materials in the space of the near abroad, for ensuring free access to these resources and unhindered their export to foreign markets.
The interests of Russia are threatened by the processes of migration of citizens from the near abroad, and in the near future, by refugees, who are still receiving EU countries.
Attempts by various forces to interfere in our internal affairs continue by encouraging and supporting separatists and nationalists and clearly terrorist groups operating on our territory.
At the same time, today, in the conditions of the economic crisis, apparently, there comes a period when our government needs more openness, dialogue with society when preparing difficult, unpopular measures. It is important to listen to the reaction of the population and, if possible, make more adapted decisions.
The fight against corruption, about which there is so much talk, must be primarily preventive and preventive.
Work on the selection and placement of personnel appointed to the civil service, especially to senior positions in the regions, should be conducted more thoroughly and responsibly.
The need to maintain stability requires the rallying of all the healthy forces of the country, the joint confrontation of new challenges and threats.