Euro-Saudi oil novel is doomed

49
The translation of the material that the European Union threatens to fall into oil dependence on Saudi Arabia.

Euro-Saudi oil novel is doomed


Recently, a cargo of Saudi Aramco crude arrived at the Naftoport terminal located in the Polish city of Gdansk. Well, in this very fact there is nothing remarkable. After all, the terminal’s shipping capacity is 34 million tons of crude oil per year.

However, at first glance, “it seems to me, Louis, this is the beginning of a wonderful friendship” between the European Union and Saudi oil suppliers - the price of the deal is very tempting. Just do not forget where there is usually free cheese.

Here it is necessary to take a closer look at the supplier. Saudi Arabia is the largest state on the Arabian Peninsula with enormous oil reserves. The SA economy is based on the oil industry. One wants to ask: where have you been before?

However, this question disappears by itself when it suddenly turns out that Saudi Arabia has already ceased to be one of the most prosperous countries in the world. Thus, according to the IMF report, this year the kingdom expects a “budget deficit of more than 20% of gross domestic product,” estimated at 100-150 billion dollars (calculated by the Daily Mail). The report also contains another advice to diversify the sources of budget replenishment and stop relying only on the oil industry.


Translation: Saudi Arabian budget surplus
Saudi Arabia’s budget surplus / deficit as a percentage of GDP

This is not the first such recommendation. We have already heard about plans to build so-called “economic cities”. But so far, exports of petroleum products account for 75% of budget revenues and about 90% of total government exports. And therefore, with the current decline in oil prices, the IMF, and after it economists of all mainstream publications starting with AlJazeera and ending with Business Insider, began to predict the CA inevitable bankruptcy in the next five years.

In addition, a more complete collection of media accusations of supporting terrorists and Zionism was collected except for the United States and Israel. It has recently turned out that SA also sells oil produced in the Syrian field seized by ISIS. So there is no guarantee that the oil arriving in Gdansk is not mixed up with Syrian blood.

However, this is already from the category of moral dilemmas, with which most politicians do not clog their heads. Much more important is the economic effect of such, at first glance, profitable deals for Europe. Everyone already understood that, stubbornly unwilling to work on expanding the scope of activities, Saudi Arabia will continue to exist at the expense of its own and neighboring natural resources. It is quite logical that with the current transition of the oil economy from “conserved” high prices to an increase in the share of products on the market, the strategy of Saudi Arabia is not to maintain its market share, but to increase it. Therefore, it is also looking for new markets, luring prices that are much lower than the cost of reference oil brands.

However, with deplorable forecasts and a tendency to further lower the price of Saudi oil, the legion of new buyers will not save either. They will not be able to afford to be dumped for a long time and will soon put their clients before the fact of changing the contractual conditions to much less favorable ones.

The probability of such an outcome is quite high. Suffice it to recall at least last year's scam of the British mobile operator O2, when 8 millions of its subscribers were faced with the fact of raising tariffs without the right to terminate contracts. Of course, such contracts for the supply of oil will be at a different level by more sophisticated people. However, in our time of fantastic legal proceedings, you can sue anything.

Unfortunately, in the current situation, the emerging Euro-Saudi oil novel is doomed. The beautiful Saudi prince on the Arabian steed will soon be a greedy gigolo. Make a predatory marriage contract behind the back of a trusting bride and tear off three skins instead of compensation, while we clutching our heads will look for loopholes for liberation from Saudi bondage.

"And happiness was so possible ..."
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  1. +28
    10 November 2015 07: 47
    The main thing is not to interfere with any alliances! What is created from hysteria and in spite of someone does not bring success. There is another reason to laugh.
    1. +1
      10 November 2015 08: 10
      Let me remind you that Poland takes the 2nd place in our export!
      That would be arrogant and unprincipled, as the United States would long ago have withered in CA !!!
      And so we will be tormented in the wilds of market relations :)
      1. +1
        10 November 2015 08: 16
        At the beginning of 2014, a review of Morgan Stanley, an American investment bank, was compiled, according to which the introduction of an embargo on oil from Russia is virtually impossible, since the world market will not be able to find a replacement for the volume of Russian oil following in the western direction. The report said: “Without a UN Security Council resolution banning the export of Russian oil, which is impossible because of Russia's right to veto, a ban on oil export from Russia will be ineffective. In the worst case, involving a ban on oil exports from Russia to the United States and the EU, Russia will be able to redirect exports to China or other countries. ” Analysts also believe that the embargo on oil exports from Russia will damage not so much Russia in the short term as Europe, which will need to look for new sources of oil for oil refining. “Geographically, Europe is at greatest risk,” the report states. [55]
        According to Morgan Stanley analysts, Russia, which exports 4,7 million barrels of oil per day, accounts for 13% of world oil production. Of this volume, OECD countries import 3,5 million barrels per day in 2014 - this is more than the free production capacities of OPEC countries, experts emphasize. In the event of interruptions in the supply of Russian oil, Europe will have to increase imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which will increase gas prices and create tension for all countries - importers of LNG in Europe, Asia and Latin America, the review indicates. [56]
        1. +4
          10 November 2015 08: 27
          Quote: Samaritan
          At the beginning of 2014, a survey of the American investment bank Morgan Stanley was compiled, according to which the introduction of an embargo on oil from Russia is virtually impossible, since the world market will not be able to find a replacement for the volume of Russian oil


          Yes, no one is looking for a replacement for oil. talk can only be about pricing.
          Saudi Arabia (through Poland) entered specifically the European market (realizing that exports to the United States will be reduced). absolutely normal market diversification policy.
          This, of course, will not complicate the supply of oil from Russia. but it will give Europe the leverage (at the right time), maybe it’s able to. if you don’t stop, then just limit the purchase of Russian.
          for oil, unlike gas, long-term contracts are not concluded. therefore an extra player. all the more so powerful — these are Russia's extra problems.
          1. +1
            10 November 2015 08: 55
            Interesting story. Russia was ahead of Saudi Arabia and became the main supplier of oil to China. Russia delivered to China nearly 930 barrels per day in May, which is more than 000% higher than the previous month. Deliveries from Saudi Arabia have fallen sharply compared to last month to the point where Saudi Arabia has become China's third largest supplier, losing to Angola and Russia.
          2. 0
            10 November 2015 09: 14
            Perhaps this is a response to the risk of Russian oil entering the Persian Gulf through a swap in northern Iran.
            1. +2
              10 November 2015 11: 23
              Quote: Wellych
              Perhaps this is a response to the risk of Russian oil entering the Persian Gulf through a swap in northern Iran.

              Why bring Russian oil to the Persian Gulf? belay It’s not enough
              1. The comment was deleted.
              2. 0
                11 November 2015 01: 30
                Quote: Hello
                Why bring Russian oil to the Persian Gulf?


                There is a concept - "virtual oil pipeline": Russia supplies oil to northern Iran, and Iran ships the same amount to Russian tankers in the Persian Gulf.
                Iran has many deposits in the south and west, but it is difficult to pull the oil pipeline to the southern Caspian littoral, for mountains 5-6 km - it is more profitable to deliver Russian oil there by sea.
  2. +2
    10 November 2015 07: 48
    They will not be able to afford to dump for a long time and pretty soon they will put their clients before the fact of changing the contractual terms to much less favorable ones.

    This option seems most likely. Correctly, the author hinted that there is free cheese.
    1. 0
      10 November 2015 08: 02
      Quote: rotmistr60
      They will not be able to afford to dump for a long time and pretty soon they will put their clients before the fact of changing the contractual terms to much less favorable ones.

      This option seems most likely. Correctly, the author hinted that there is free cheese.

      Alternatively, Europeans in this case may call the Saudi prices undemocratic and take oil for free.)
    2. +2
      10 November 2015 08: 06
      Quote: rotmistr60
      This option seems most likely.


      Petroleum is strife :: it may turn out that adjusting the processing technology will simply cause a dumb rise in price of the final product.
      This is approximately the same as in Ukrainian power plants designed for coal in the Donbass: any change in coal leads to a decrease in the efficiency of electric power generation and, as a result, its cost increase.
      1. 0
        10 November 2015 08: 55
        ...... at the technological level it is ... you can’t reconfigure quickly and without loss, and the reconfiguration itself is also ... money
  3. +4
    10 November 2015 07: 50
    a budget deficit of more than 20% of gross domestic product

    What are they spending so much on there? The country is kind of small, obviously not for friendship with kittens and raising violets.

    Soon to tear ...
    1. +1
      10 November 2015 08: 09
      Quote: Gorjelin
      Soon to tear ...


      With such a policy - easily!
      There is such a small communism there now: the population is almost entirely supported by the kingdom, and several hundred princes are occupied by managerial government posts
      1. +1
        10 November 2015 08: 20
        Only this communism is in quotation marks .. Women have no rights, in the squares of their heads they chop right and left .. The classics of this theory are horrified in the next world ..
        Quote: hydrox
        Quote: Gorjelin
        Soon to tear ...


        With such a policy - easily!
        There is such a small communism there now: the population is almost entirely supported by the kingdom, and several hundred princes are occupied by managerial government posts
  4. +1
    10 November 2015 07: 51
    CA also trades in oil produced in the Syrian field captured by ISIS.

    As it is twisted, it’s difficult to understand right away. The Saudis play on what they can do so far, but how long they last in this game.
    1. +1
      10 November 2015 08: 14
      Quote: venaya
      CA also trades in oil produced in the Syrian field captured by ISIS.

      As it is twisted, it’s difficult to understand right away. The Saudis play on what they can do so far, but how long they last in this game.

      If you understand that dumping is based on the Iraqi and Syrian oil of ISIS, then yes, not for long :: in vain, did Russia get involved in this business?
      They climb into our export estate with their (stolen!) Oil!
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. +2
        10 November 2015 08: 37
        Quote: hydrox
        If you understand that dumping is based on Iraqi and Syrian oil ISIS


        ISIS oil production - 0.02% of world production - what kind of influence can we talk about?
        I'm not talking about the fact that if there had not been ISIS, oil would have been produced there vigorously and even in larger volumes than now (I think no one will prove that ISIS is developing its own fields)
        Therefore, with or without ISIS, the amount of oil in the market would not change
        By the way. and who will tell me. why is this videoconferencing not bombing the oil fields of ISIS?
        Quote: hydrox
        Is it in vain that Russia got involved in this business? They climb into our export estate with their own (stolen!) oil!

        See the previous question, it would seem logical to bomb
        1. Undermining the ISIS economy
        2. Reduction of oil in the market (meager truth) and as a result. at least some kind of price increase.
        1. 0
          10 November 2015 14: 07
          Well, for example, I came across infa that ig and asad unofficially agreed not to bomb each other's oil and energy facilities. For example, the Aleppo TES, which is controlled by the ig, feeds the entire Aleppo - and the areas of Asad and ig and the Nusra and the Islamic front. So - they are trying to capture, so as not to restore later. Well, we accordingly do not do this either. request Now, in theory, the blockade of Kweiris has already been practically broken, which means that part of the territory controlled by the ig is in a semicircle, including the thermal power plant. If it is captured, then maybe something will change in tactics. IG is now not just a gang of scumbags, but a pseudo-state with the economy, all and its own currency. Something like this.
          1. 0
            10 November 2015 14: 10
            Quote: g1v2
            Well, for example, I came across infa that ig and asad unofficially agreed not to bomb each other's oil and energy facilities

            And with the videoconferencing how? Did you agree the same with them?
            Quote: g1v2
            IG is now not just a gang of scumbags, but a pseudo-state with the economy, all and its own currency. Something like this.

            how so YOU ​​did not answer the question of why the aerospace forces do not bomb ISIS oil mines and infrastructure.
            1. 0
              10 November 2015 16: 26
              Because we are acting in alliance with Assad. I think this is understandable. request So if this can harm an ally, then we will not do this.
  5. +2
    10 November 2015 07: 51
    a budget deficit of more than 20% of gross domestic product, estimated at 100-150 billion dollars

    Naturally, if you trade at a loss and for the sake of πndos.
    1. +1
      10 November 2015 08: 32
      Quote: SAM 5
      a budget deficit of more than 20% of gross domestic product, estimated at 100-150 billion dollars

      Naturally, if you trade at a loss and for the sake of πndos.

      The cost of oil production in Saudi Arabia is 9 in my opinion, 8 bucks a barrel) - the deficit is due to the bloated budget and all the unimaginable benefits for citizens and almost communism for the royal family.
      Well, cut costs. reduce the budget - Saudia produces oil at the level of Russia. while the population is 5 times smaller, and the territory is 20 times.
      Early the author writes about the death of the Saudis. - so they somehow get out.
      1. 0
        10 November 2015 11: 10
        Quote: atalef
        The cost of oil production in Saudi Arabia is 9 in my opinion, 8 bucks a barrel) - the deficit is due to the bloated budget and all the unimaginable benefits for citizens and almost communism for the royal family.
        Well, cut costs. reduce the budget - Saudia produces oil at the level of Russia. while the population is 5 times smaller, and the territory is 20 times.
        Early the author writes about the death of the Saudis. - so they somehow get out.


        Alexander, your thought is interesting, but I am interested in the question of "the cost of oil production in Saudi Arabia", in terms of the fact that in September of this year. several other figures flashed in the press on the cost of production for the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. I am not in the plan to argue, and the source of information made a reference to OPEC data, without specifics. But in any case, the numbers were much higher than those indicated by you, in particular for Saudi Arabia the price of the minimum profitability was about 40-50 dollars per barrel. How serious is your data about 8-9 dollars per barrel.
        Well, interesting, colleague, the question is serious. hi
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. +2
          10 November 2015 14: 15
          Quote: Vladimir 1964
          I have no plan to argue, and the source of information made a reference to OPEC data, without specifics. But in any case, the figures were significantly higher than you specified, in particular for Saudi Arabia, the price of a minimum profitability of about 40-50 bucks per barrel appeared. How serious is your data on 8-9 dollars per barrel

          really lied, not $ 8, but 4.
          http://bs-life.ru/makroekonomika/sebestoimost-dobichi-nefti2015.html
          1. +1
            10 November 2015 17: 48
            Quote: atalef
            really lied, not $ 8, but 4.

            Yeah, lied after all, all is not 8-9 bucks then, but only 4. wassat
            Yes, Alexander, looked, an interesting table, I immediately remembered Sechin with his shit at Rosneft gas stations at 36 rubles per liter of 92nd, with the cost of oil at $ 6 per barrel. Well, yes, it's lyrics.
            Thank you for the answer and information, I fully admit my guilt in the use and dissemination of unfair information. feel
    2. 0
      10 November 2015 08: 32
      Quote: SAM 5
      a budget deficit of more than 20% of gross domestic product, estimated at 100-150 billion dollars

      Naturally, if you trade at a loss and for the sake of πndos.

      The cost of oil production in Saudi Arabia is 9 in my opinion, 8 bucks a barrel) - the deficit is due to the bloated budget and all the unimaginable benefits for citizens and almost communism for the royal family.
      Well, cut costs. reduce the budget - Saudia produces oil at the level of Russia. while the population is 5 times smaller, and the territory is 20 times.
      Early the author writes about the death of the Saudis. - so they somehow get out.
  6. +1
    10 November 2015 07: 52
    Well, I want them to become dependent on the Saudis so let them ... And the Saudis at such prices push themselves even faster into the coffin ...
    1. -1
      10 November 2015 08: 18
      Quote: Alex_Rarog
      Well, I want them to become dependent on the Saudis so let

      A short-sighted view: the success of the Saudis in the Baltic means the failure of our policy of "oil" conquest of Europe - our budget will suffer losses, it will be our political voice that will have less weight.
  7. +1
    10 November 2015 08: 00
    It’s a possible scenario ... One who becomes a monopolist, then radically changes his behavior. And by the way, what about energy packages?
  8. +1
    10 November 2015 08: 02
    They forgot about the hegemony, the hegemony will also make its contribution to anyone, without a hegemony as without a filthy bucket - nothing should move!
    1. +2
      10 November 2015 08: 13
      Quote: Sergey Sitnikov
      without hegemony, as without a filthy bucket - nothing should move!



      It looks like the hegemony and puts on the "edge of the abyss", and when it becomes profitable, just push.
  9. Riv
    0
    10 November 2015 08: 07
    So what's new? Normal dumping in order to monopolize the market. Poles rub their sweaty palms, counting on mediation with all of Europe. As the author correctly noted: dumping is always pointless. Sooner or later the price will rise.
    And yet, yes: the Saudis also dig for themselves. It may end in minor troubles with tankers.
  10. +1
    10 November 2015 08: 08
    When the President talks about national security, the threat of terrorism is by no means the main problem. We are simply tightly (for now and, it seems, for a long time) tied to oil prices. It's time to end the mess in Syria, otherwise it will become completely sour. The Saudis will not last long with dumping, not the 80s in the yard, they need to "help" - to smash the shaitans out of the igils - both they and the Turks will lose free oil. It will be seen there ...
  11. 0
    10 November 2015 08: 16
    Quote: jarome
    As soon as I see the word "DOOMED" in the title of the article on VO, I automatically lose interest. The reflex worked out, no worse than Pavlov's dog.
    From the previously doomed, with predicted timing, "giving back" to the present:
    Why Maidan is doomed
    The dollar is doomed
    The US is doomed
    The EU is doomed
    Poroshenko is doomed
    APU are doomed
    What else did the "kirdyk" experts not predict? ..

    I do not criticize the content of the article, did not familiarize myself later. Suddenly there is a list of real arguments.

    Russia)) then you would read!
  12. 0
    10 November 2015 08: 16
    I am amazed at European politicians and economists! Well, it’s not enough to see the states + their Saudi allies threw an old European woman through life. Maybe I'm not a strong political scientist and economist (and, frankly, a weak one), but! What did Europeans get from state policies:
    - billions in losses in the economy (obviously, and you can not argue with that!)
    - the loss of the market in Russia (a holy place does not happen empty)
    - social tensions with these obscure refugee migrants
    - a fucking unstable neighbor in the form of a collapsed Outskirts (sometime this bomb will still explode and light up neighboring countries)
    - the constantly increasing presence of US military units and equipment, contrary to the opinion of residents of countries hosting military bases (and after all, none of the politicians can even utter something against)

    And what, now they are going to like to give up Russian oil in favor of Saudi oil? Hey, what do you think you are in Europe? No, I understand, well ... sing, well, it will freeze! How long are you going to step on the rake or is it such a pan-European fun? Throw the same, throw at the first opportunity. Tankers are not a pipe for you. You can organize a couple of demonstration attacks on tankers and that's it, hello. The Saudis have good reason to freeze supplies "Until the pirates threatening tankers are completely exterminated," and then hike the price of oil and transportation on the same basis.
  13. 0
    10 November 2015 08: 21
    Lost his head through the hair does not cry. Free only cheese in a mousetrap. That's for sure.
  14. +2
    10 November 2015 08: 23
    It would be time for Russia to think about how to get off the oil needle, otherwise it’s not an hour and we’ll start dumping ourselves, it would not be time to establish deep hydrocarbon processing inside the country and export them. The whole problem is businessmen in power, and businessmen sewing the dashing 90s. And as a result, the elite needs to be cleaned of this garbage.
    1. +1
      10 November 2015 09: 28
      Quote: Vladimir71
      otherwise it’s not an hour and we’ll start dumping ourselves,

      We can’t. Arabs have lower oil production costs than in Russia.

      Quote: Vladimir71
      It would be time for Russia to think about how to get off the oil needle ... The whole problem is with businessmen in power, and businessmen sewing the dashing 90s. And as a result, the elite needs to be cleaned of this garbage.

      But what about Putin with his ratings? He was 15 years old was not enough for the development of industry to "get off the oil needle". Why then is it needed?
  15. 0
    10 November 2015 08: 23
    Europe fell under the Arabs! Survived ...
    1. 0
      10 November 2015 09: 02
      Interestingly black master (pimp) allowed?
  16. +1
    10 November 2015 08: 51
    Yes, they will buy psheks even at a loss, they don’t have to go far for an example; they don’t need labuses because they buy expensive and psheks also take Qatar gas. As they say in spite of mom frostbite ears. Meanwhile, we agreed with Pakistan to build a network of gas pipelines. And Iran is not looking at the European gas market, but a little in the other direction towards the Indian gas market.
    1. -1
      10 November 2015 09: 24
      Yes Yes. Read
      http://www.gazeta.ru/business/2015/10/16/7824155.shtml
      “But from the point of view of profitability for Rostec itself, the effectiveness of the project is not obvious for the Russian side,” says Vladimir Revenkov, head of the gas market sector at the Institute of Energy and Finance.
      ...
      According to the expert, the profitability of the gas transportation business itself is low: for example, in Europe, the profit margin is 6-7%. But the main thing is that you have to agree on the formation of tariffs for pumping with Pakistani regulatory authorities, and negotiations on such a topic are always a complicated issue. “And finally, the payback period and a plus,” says Revenkov. “Anything can happen in 25 years.”

      И
      The new pipeline is designed to supply gas from Iran to Pakistan, but in the future it can also be used to supply Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).

      That is, again in the future, only the sale of raw materials to anyone, at least for how much. Normal for a country that is getting up-and-out.
  17. 0
    10 November 2015 09: 20
    However, with deplorable forecasts and a tendency to further lower the price of Saudi oil, the legion of new buyers will not save either. They will not be able to afford to be dumped for a long time and will soon put their clients before the fact of changing the contractual conditions to much less favorable ones.

    Exactly. And now consider in terms of application to Russia. The Saudis will bring down oil prices, there will be more buyers of their oil, they will refuse from Russian oil (including because Saudi Arabia can set oil prices lower than the Russian Federation for objective reasons), then the Saudis will enslave buyers with contracts and that’s all. The oil price may rise, but it will not help Russia (however, once again they will bring down the ruble and raise prices, not the first time, having divorced along the way the sanctions and treacherous Saudis)). So why rejoice that
    Euro-Saudi oil novel is doomed

    Why doomed, who said that?
    1. +2
      10 November 2015 14: 17
      Quote: anip
      then the Saudis enslave the buyers' contracts and that’s it. Oil price may rise, but it will not help Russia

      there are no long-term contracts for oil
    2. The comment was deleted.
  18. +1
    10 November 2015 09: 21
    I didn’t understand anything after reading this article.
    1. +2
      10 November 2015 11: 16
      Quote: Mama_Cholli
      I didn’t understand anything after reading this article.


      Yes, and do not bother, colleague, drop something worthless about the Americans in the oil context, and so they will instruct the pluses. For judging by the comments, half of the commentators, like you, did not really understand anything, but unlike you, they are not able to admit it. hi
  19. 0
    10 November 2015 12: 58
    The authorities of Saudi Arabia, due to falling oil prices, hit by public finances, decided to enter the international bond markets and within five years can increase the level of debt to 50% of GDP. http://vz.ru/news/2015/11/10/777214.html
  20. 0
    10 November 2015 21: 12
    The cost of oil production in Saudi Arabia is 9 in my opinion, 8 bucks a barrel) - the deficit is due to the bloated budget and all the unimaginable benefits for citizens and almost communism for the royal family.
    Well, cut costs. reduce the budget - Saudia produces oil at the level of Russia. while the population is 5 times smaller, and the territory is 20 times.
    Early the author writes about the death of the Saudis. - so they somehow get out.

    Not so simple under the moon. What the CA has, what Qatar has, there is no agricultural at all. Those. almost all food products the Saudis have to buy in the world market. Accordingly, no matter how low oil prices are, the Saudis will be forced to spend huge amounts of money on the purchase and delivery of food for the entire population. This makes the Saudis very vulnerable.

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