Detention by FSB officers in Moscow of an IG gang of terrorists (a terrorist group banned in Russia) confirmed the timeliness of the decision on military participation in an operation against jihadists in Syria adopted by the Russian military-political leadership shortly after the speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the UN General Assembly session . It was not the first and, probably, not the last episode of the activity on the territory of Russia of members and collaborators of the “Islamic State” that had loudly declared itself, disclosed by the FSB. This organization has already managed to extend its activities far beyond Iraq and the countries of the Mediterranean Levant. It is also customary to attribute neighboring Turkey, so beloved by our tourists.
ARMY OF TERRORISTS
Speaking at a meeting of the National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAC) in Nalchik, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov announced figures that should alert the citizens of all CIS countries. Over the past 10 years, that is, since the bloodshed by terrorists in Nalchik, more than 2 thousand thugs have been neutralized in Russia alone, but about 1,5 thousand are still walking while in search. They are checked on suspicion of involvement in terrorism even more 4 thousand people. And all this, I repeat, the data only for the last 10 years.
If, however, such a calculation has been carried out since the beginning of the global war on international terrorism declared by Washington after 11 September 2001, then the given data could have increased many times over.
Such a global war can be characterized as a war of terror-antiterror, since in it each of the parties usually accuses each other of terrorism.
Military historians have decided to count the different generations of wars as they are used in different types. weapons and weapons: from cold, firearms and fast-fire, chemical, and to modern - nuclear missiles. In modern conditions, terrorists can use all their types, except the last generation. It is impossible, however, to exclude that in a short time, terrorists may seize weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In the meantime, they are content with such weapons of mass deterrence as terror in all its manifestations. Under the conditions of conducting the so-called hybrid wars with the entanglement of the causes and goals of many conflicts and crises in the Middle East, the Islamic Caliphate, with all its vandalistic essence, is very much in demand for solving its tactical tasks as well as far-reaching strategic and geopolitical goals. In the current difficult situation in the Middle East, a map has long been played of the existing contradictions between Sunnis and Shiites, as well as between other sects and denominations.
I can agree with the well-known sociologist Alexander Neklessa that such a hybrid war is not a new phenomenon at all. With the end of the Cold War, it in its hybrid version is used by the West as a new status of war and peace, a new hybrid of the 21st century. The “Islamic state” of its kind can also be considered a hybrid. In the Middle East, it was formed on the basis of the remnants of the former runaway army of Saddam Hussein and the 300-thousandth army of Iraq created on its base by the Americans. Dozens of bandit groups operating in different self-governing territories of Iraq and Syria have also joined this new terrorist structure.
In the years of the Afghan epic, I had the opportunity to serve at the command post of the GRU, where I was engaged in the operational-analytical service. I remember well how we began to use the neologism of “bandit formation” in relation to various Afghan dushmans (in Dari means “enemies”) and jihadi-mojaheds. Such incomprehensible names were hardly perceived by our highest authorities. Then it was decided to replace them with a neologism invented by us, which then became widely used by all organs and various media. Such gangs before the birth of the IG began to appear in the North Caucasus.
LATE RESPONSE TO TIMELY SIGNAL
If Russia would not start a military operation against ISIS in Syria, with some delay, then, as Bashar Asad stressed at the talks in Moscow, terrorism could spread to even greater territory. “And everything could develop according to a more tragic scenario,” the Syrian President acknowledged.
It may be recalled here that only in the last two years 250 thousand people have died in the Syrian conflict. At least 4 – 5 million have become refugees. About two-thirds of the country's territory has recently been under the control of various armed groups. The number of refugees and victims grew every day.
Before making a decision on the involvement of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Russian President Vladimir Putin conducted the relevant diplomatic training. In August, Sergey Lavrov held meetings in Qatar with the foreign ministers of the emirate and Saudi Arabia, discussing with them the situation in Syria. The interlocutors of the Russian leadership in Moscow after that were also the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Commander of the National Revolutionary Guard of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Several Saudi princes, Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, and Erdogan, President of Turkey, also visited Moscow.
After the meeting with Bashar Asad, President Putin found it necessary to inform the Presidents of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan’s Presidents on the “joint fight against international terrorism in Syria” about the talks held with him about the “joint fight against international terrorism in Syria”.
Vladimir Putin’s speech at the UN General Assembly was permeated not only by internal logic, but also by common sense. He offered the West not only a reasonable view of the world, but also made at least many people think. President Putin, in his speech, promptly recalled the consequences of the wars in Iraq and Libya unleashed by the West. To this one could also add the perennial crises in Lebanon and Yemen and of course the protracted war in Syria for a long time. “Instead of the triumph of democracy and progress,” he said, addressing the participants of the session, “violence and poverty reign there ... Human rights, including the right to life, are not placed in anything. One wants to ask those who created such a situation: do you at least understand now what you have done? I'm afraid this question will hang in the air, ”Putin questioned.
This question does not hang in the air. Throughout the media space, he was immediately heard. Responded to it and one of the presidential candidates from Republicans Donald Trump. On NBC he asked himself similar questions: “You can get evidence by looking at Libya and remembering Muammar Gaddafi. What we did there is chaos. Take a look at Saddam Hussein in Iraq and see what we have done there - it's a mess. Syria will be the same if we overthrow Assad, just as we overthrew Gaddafi and Hussein. I like that Putin began to bomb the IG, because he does not want his terrorists to get to Russia. ”
The success of the combat use of the Russian military largely depends on the professionalism of technicians and armament specialists. aviation in Syria. Photo from the official site of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
This was quickly realized in the White House. US President Barack Obama agreed to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and was now ready to “wait a little with the overthrow of Assad” until the destruction of the IS in Syria. We must assume that the neighboring states of Syria, including Israel, are no less interested in this.
The day after Vladimir Putin’s return from New York in Moscow, a decision was made about our Aerospace Forces launching rocket-bombing attacks on IS positions and bases in Syria. I repeat, this was done in strict accordance with international law and the treaty in force at the request of the very same Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
President Putin’s speech at the UN General Assembly and the decision to start a military operation in Syria immediately after his return to Moscow was called differently in the Western press. But the situation was described most precisely by the newspaper Slovo, calling it nothing less than the Syrian Gambit, followed by its somersault.
Speaking at the Russia Calling! Economic Forum in Moscow, President Putin reassured his participants: Russia is not at all eager for any kind of leadership in Syria. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking after him in the State Duma and answering deputies' questions, said that Moscow had repeatedly offered the Americans to send a delegation of its military experts to us to agree on joint actions in Syria. Russia was ready to send its delegation to Washington at the highest level, led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. But the answer came from Washington that sending a delegation to Moscow “they don’t succeed and they don’t receive the Russian delegation to Washington either.” In this regard, Lavrov said - it's time to finally reveal their cards in the literal and figurative sense.
Answering the question whether the Syrian scenario will repeat in Ukraine, Lavrov confidently stated: “Russia will never allow such a scenario!” Of course, I would like to hope that such a “hybrid” war can be avoided. But military people can not enlist in advance something. If the West suddenly decides to “close the sky” over Syria, it may also be closed over Ukraine. Not so much about the “exchange of Syria to Ukraine” was spoken not long ago in the West, but such exchange is unlikely to take place now.
CREATIVE - ONE OF HYBRID WAR SPECIES
The Syrians do not hide that they now plan, with our air support, to cut off the grouping of the "black" IG and the "green" from the "Dzhebhat an-Nusra" from their nutrient medium in Turkey. The situation in Syria is unlikely to change much after the US military transport aircraft dropped platforms with small arms and ammunition for some incomprehensible “moderate opposition” in Syria in the Hasakah province. All this has recently given rise to UN special envoy Stefan de Misturo to accuse Washington and Moscow of unleashing some kind of creative war in which the Americans will help this “moderate opposition”.
Speaking in Geneva before visits to Moscow and Washington, the same UN special envoy for Syria called on Russia to stop military activity in order not to interfere with the provision of humanitarian assistance to civilians, accusing Moscow of giving the Syrian crisis "new dynamics". Otherwise, as he stated, the war will lead to the disintegration of Syria.
But worrying about it, in the West they forget that it was the detachments and gangs of the “moderate opposition” who had already put the country in danger of collapse and threatened it with a humanitarian catastrophe. Hundreds of thousands, even millions of refugees, have already rushed to Europe, forcing her to experience the horror of such a new "resettlement of peoples." Turkey, which has become not only a corridor in such a migration of peoples, but also one of the hot arenas of a hybrid war, is experiencing this fully before Europe. It is unlikely that Angelina Merkel’s promise to Turkey’s position to provide it with about 3 billion euros for humanitarian aid to refugees.
Turkish President Erdogan sees the main guilt of what is happening in the military operation launched by Russia. Expressing his dissatisfaction with the accidental violation of the Turkish airspace by Russian aircraft, he also expressed his dissatisfaction with Moscow’s actions in Syria in general. He even threatened the deterioration of relations between the two "friendly" countries. But one can hardly be called a friendly country, from where jihadists have recently arrived and come to us in the Caucasus.
We should not discount the assumptions that the crisis in Syria began after it became known that President Bashar Asad had refused to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to lay a new gas pipeline through Syria to Europe. As for the "South Stream" and the creation of a gas hub to supply Europe, in this matter Russia will have to negotiate with "friendly" Turkey, most likely after the victory over the IG.
However, judging by how Turkey got involved at the same time in three wars against its Kurds in Iraq and Syria and only in words declared war on the IG, several fires could break out there. The two explosions in Ankara during the peaceful demonstration organized by the Kurds served as a signal to this that the suicide bombers arranged by the IS. As a result of the explosions killed about a hundred people and even more were injured.
TRIUNE SECURITY OF RUSSIA
How long the “Syrian gambit” can last with all its somersaults, what consequences it can have - no one takes a prediction ahead of time. Especially when it comes to the consequences of the crisis in Syria for all its neighbors in this region. But the participants of the round table of experts of the “Izborsk club”, in which the author had to participate, tried to come to some preliminary conclusions and conclusions.
In Saudi Arabia, according to polls, 92% of the population support the IG, in Qatar - more than 67%. This can not be ignored. But there is another, more serious threat to Russia.
The longer the crisis continues in Syria, the more likely it can lead to the fact that Russia will be represented in the world of Islam by a kind of "enemy" of all the Sunnis living in it.
In this situation, the Syrian conflict cannot have only a military solution without its political resolution.
Far away on the other side of the Atlantic, the United States claims to play the leading role in such a war. It is clear that they would like to wage war by proxy — either Arab Sunnis and Shiites in Syria and Iraq, or Pashtuns, Uzbeks and Tajiks in Afghanistan, or Ukrainians, Russians, Poles and other Swedes in independent Ukraine.
Another conclusion can be drawn from the first results of the joint operation of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Armed Forces and the Land Forces of the Syrian Armed Forces in Syria. Its first results were confirmed by the postulates of the current Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation on its triune national security, which should be ensured in close cooperation of all three modern types of armed forces - aerospace, land and naval. The timeliness and effectiveness of such a doctrine finds its place in ensuring not only the national security of Russia, but also the state security of its neighboring countries. Including such unrecognized states as South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the Caucasus, not excluding the emergence in the future of similar unrecognized states in Novorossia in the event of a breakdown in the arrangements of the “Norman Four” in Minsk-2.
The experience we have learned of entering the Soviet "limited contingent" into Afghanistan suggests: after the defeat of the IS and other terrorist organizations, Syria can long be the scene of civil and various internecine wars between the various groups and gangs that remain there. It is possible to reliably protect our bases in Syria with air defense systems on land and from ships without entering a “limited contingent”. We hardly need to re-attack the old rake. It is enough to coordinate closely in Syria and Iraq with internal forces, including the Kurds, using the common Coordination Center already operating in Baghdad. To get involved in someone else's civil war anywhere we should not. Russia has its own rich experience in this regard in the near future. stories.