This year the Valdai Forum was dedicated to the problems of war and peace. Having repulsed from the fight against terrorism in Syria, Russian and foreign political scientists, meeting with key Russian politicians, reflected on the patterns and profound changes in world politics.
However, foreign policy is just a continuation of domestic policy. It cannot be analyzed, in particular, without studying the country's socio-economic policy, which creates a human, cultural and economic basis for its actions in the international arena.
Therefore, V.Putin, speaking at the Valdai Forum, spoke about social and economic issues.
In an extremely clear and capacious form, he expressed an accurate understanding of the strategic patterns of the modern world: technology, integration, culture.
"Shadow, know your place!"
First of all, the President of Russia emphasized the fundamental importance of the transition to a new technological order: he pointed out that "everything is based on" not just an abstract "economic growth", but precisely its development "on a new technological basis."
Probably, foreseeing the division of global markets into macroregions already beginning with the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Vladimir Putin stressed that for Russia "the future is ... certainly in the development of relations with our ... closest neighbors, partners and allies in organizations like Eurasian Economic Union, CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization); with such neighbors as the People's Republic of China; of course, with such a great country as India. " It is quite characteristic that the president of Russia said about the development of relations with the leading European economic war against Russia in a ritual order, already completing the transfer, and about the United States with a characteristic clause "if, of course, our partners want it," he mentioned it at the very last moment after the Islamic world.
This is a qualitatively new coordinate system for the entire Russian elite, which until recently was divided into blindly obeying the West and being trained by its junior managers, on the one hand, and wanting to cooperate with it relatively equally, but at any cost, even forcibly, even in spite of self-interest, on the other.
With a simple transfer procedure, the President of Russia clearly said: “Shadow, know your place” - not only to the West as such (while expressing a relatively great interest in Europe), but also to its agents in the Russian political class.
Calling Russia's advantage a high proportion of the Muslim population, thanks to which "we can be a link between many of our partners and the Islamic world," the Russian president emphasized the cultural factor that is crucial for modern development.
However, in contrast to the strategic factors of foreign policy, V. Putin’s description of its tactical factors, that is, socio-economic policy, made a frightening impression.
In captivity of 90's liberal raving
Quite rightly stating that not only Russia, but the whole world is experiencing an economic crisis, stressing the insignificant contribution to our difficulties of the credit and investment blockade of the West (abbreviated as “sanctions”), the president called “the most important factor” of our economic problems ”falling prices traditional goods ... export. "
This approach, popular in the liberal clan, ignores the fact that the devaluation of the ruble and the stampede of private capital from Russia began in January of the 2014 year, with the price of oil more than 105 dollars / bbl (and before the sanctions began).
The decline in the share of the oil and gas sector from 14 to 9% of GDP, cited as a sign of economic diversification, seemed to be due to the double reduction in the cost of oil. Comparison with the mono-industrial economies of Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, which are not claiming to diversify and are obviously not comparable with Russia in technological development, looked strange, giving the impression of deliberately discrediting the president by some part of his apparatus.
The statement “I consider the assertions of those ... specialists and members of the government, who believe that the peak of the crisis has been passed,” received a great response. Yes, the decline in GDP slowed down from 4,6% in August to 3,8% in September, in the third quarter for the first time in a long time, although small, but private capital inflows were recorded, inflation declined, and the federal budget that received additional revenues from inflation and devaluation in August and September reduced with a surplus (about which neither the Ministry of Finance nor the government of Medvedev as a whole seems to have been told to the president).
But the real causes of the crisis — the corruption that is killing the economy, monopolism and the fundamental refusal of the liberal part of the government and the Bank of Russia to develop in order to encourage speculators — have not gone away.
The statistics of the fourth quarter will be better due to the “base effect”: in the third quarter, the crisis reality was compared with the relatively good situation of last year, and in the fourth quarter there will be a statistically more advantageous comparison of the crisis with the crisis.
But in December Russia will have the last peak of payments on external debt - 24 billion dollars, which is three times higher than the background level; the last, much smaller peak of payments led to the August devaluation of the ruble. Since the Bank of Russia will not spend its reserves (at least, outside the exchange or on agreed purchases within the exchange - this is contrary to liberal dogma), we are waiting for a new devaluation, and, accordingly, a surge in inflation, which is now moderated only by the poverty of Russians.
The fall in investment (and the bulk of reduced imports is exactly investment), living standards and current consumption (in September — more than 10%) of Russians — only an outward expression of that financial catastrophe, on the brink of which the overly tough 90 financial policy put the Russian economy -y's So, if in February-April 2015, the balanced financial result of Russian organizations (except for small business, banks, insurance companies and budget organizations) exceeded last year’s 1,9-2,8 times, in May it was lower than last year’s by 9,8% - and this is nominal terms, without taking into account the effect of inflation (not to mention the devaluation effect!) In June, the backlog from last year was 20,0%, and in August the net financial result, which had steadily decreased since April, reached insignificant 127,2 billion. - 8,2% of the maximum March result (1.547,1 billion). As a result, the backlog of 2014 from August was 4,4 times. This vividly reflects the strangulation of the economy by excessively tight financial policies and the transformation of Russia into a haven for speculators under the pretext of fighting inflation.
The allocation of budget funds to "the most affected industries and construction" will not break the negative trends laid down by monetary policy, plunging Russia into the most severe "money hunger."
“Stabilization of the national currency” with the help of the Bank of Russia’s withdrawal from the foreign exchange market and the fundamental refusal of currency regulation stimulates speculators and is extremely unstable and temporary.
The literacy rate of liberal economists, in the spirit of which the president’s answer to the question on specific aspects of social and economic policy was sustained, shows that they don’t even know that the government’s foreign exchange reserves are part of Russia's international reserves reported by the Bank of Russia! As they said in 1997 about Yeltsin, "the president was set up again."
Judging by the speech of V.Putin, Russia will continue macroeconomic stabilization according to the IMF recipes, which led us to the 1998 disaster and the 1999 political crisis of the year - tightening financial policies and demonetizing the economy to its complete destruction and, accordingly, destabilizing the country The monstrous experience of dozens of countries around the world and of Russia itself, it seems, will be ignored further, until the system crisis collapses.
It seems that the president is diligently protected from the understanding that all developed countries, at the stage of maturity of their financial systems, corresponding to the current state of Russia, rigidly and uncompromisingly, though in different ways, separated speculative money from money of the real sector - in fact, because they became developed . This is an indispensable condition for development, because otherwise the money of the real sector will inevitably go to the speculative markets, as it was in Russia in the 90-s and how it is resumed now. In the most market country of the world - the USA - the corresponding restriction was lifted only in 1999 year.
However, there is not even a hint at the categorical need for the implementation of this fundamental principle (allowing to start targeted lending for the development of the economy and through this increase the level of its monetization).
And the political consequences of this are already evident.
Even under the conditions of an unprecedented, almost 90% policy support for V.V. Putin's social and economic policies, as shown by data from an online survey (despite the understandable limited representativeness of this genre), are supported only by less than 13%. More than 61% oppose it, and 18% adhere to an amazing construction designed to save their respect for the president: they say, V.V. Putin "is not related to the socio-economic policy being implemented in Russia now." However, it is clear that these people also do not support the liberal policy in the style of 90-x, aimed, in essence, at their destruction, at bringing them to despair, Maidan and supporting the coup d'état in one or another "color revolution". Without a decisive change in this policy that serves the interests of global business against the interests of Russia and is focused on encouraging speculation while suppressing development, without beginning modernization, without bringing our socio-economic policy in line with our foreign policy, our country is waiting for Smoot, threatening its very existence.