Poland after the election could be a hotbed of tension in Europe
At the elections to the Polish Sejm that took place on October 25, the national-conservative party Law and Justice won a convincing victory. This is the second success of the party this year. The first happened in May. Then the representative of "PiS" Andrzej Duda won the presidential company. Now the winning party fully controls the Polish Sejm, and for the first time in the post-socialist time it has the right to form a one-party government. The candidate for this position is called Beatu Shidlo. Among other things, she led the election campaign of the current president. So there is a certain tandem of politicians.
Information fake as a mirror of political goals
Not everyone in Poland was pleased with such election results. This is how their editor-in-chief of Gazeta Wyborcza, Adam Michnik, appreciated: “We have very difficult four years before us, I have no doubt that this power will not be like all previous ones. There will be provocations, eavesdropping. The policy will be superseded by the model of conducting operations by the special services. ”
Michnik is a very charismatic public figure for Poland. The world remembers him one of the most active representatives of the opposition 1968 — 1989. Now, a veteran of Polish politics predicts disastrous consequences for his country "due to Euroscepticism, xenophobic and nationalist views" of the leaders and activists of the victorious party.
“The Poles have woken up in another country,” the leading Polish publications now write. They imply above all the political domination of one party.
For the first time, the Law and Justice Party, led by the Kaczynski brothers, won the election ten years ago. Then she headed the country's coalition government, and its leader, Lech Kaczynski, became president of Poland.
“Law and Justice” will last only two years in power. It will be replaced by the "Civic Platform". After the tragic death in the plane crash of President Kaczynski, "PiS" will also lose its highest public office. Now she has regained political positions and even strengthened them.
Shortly before the election, 20 of October, the online edition of the Russian Spring (it, as the source indicates the portal stopfake.org) published news with the title "President of Poland:" Ukraine must voluntarily return the Polish lands. " With reference to the broadcast of the program “Case for a Reporter” on the Polish TVP TV 1, a fragment of a speech by the President of Poland Andrzej Duda was given at a meeting of the Sejm in the message “The Russian Spring”. In it, Duda called on the Poles to be ready to fight for the return of the former Polish lands - Galicia, Volyn and Polesye (at present - Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn and Rivne regions of Ukraine). Literally, it turned out like this: “I urge all citizens of the Polish Republic to be ready to fight for the return of the former Polish lands, where our compatriots continue to be persecuted and humiliated by the new Ukrainian leadership. If modern Ukraine condemns the actions of the USSR, - and she condemns them, then this state should voluntarily return the lands of Poland that belonged to it before the 1939 year. ”
Serious editions ignored this news. First of all, because the last meeting of the Polish Sejm before the elections was already October 9. In addition, there is no mention of the speech of Andrzej Duda to the Polish parliamentarians on the website of the Presidential Administration of Poland. Such, as they say, one hundred percent fake, or in our opinion, in a simple way, is nonsense.
However, this stuffing was easily picked up by many online publications (Newsli.ru, Rusimperia.info, DossierKIEV, Occupation.NET and others). It is unlikely that all of them were prompted by malicious intent. Just a fake about Duda's speech organically merged with the goals that the Law and Justice party sets itself. Even in the first coming to power she promised to build the so-called Fourth Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (IV RP). In the new conditions, “PiS” diluted its political slogans with left-wing populism, such as an active state policy of social protection of the poor, reducing the tax burden, and liberalizing the economy. With that, she came to power.
But the fundamental goals of the party have not changed. This is how Jan Zharin, a well-known Polish historian, the newly elected senator from the now presidential party “Law and Justice” speaks about this: “There is no Polish people without Lviv, a city that has always been faithful to Poland. Today it is obvious. ” In an interview with Prawy, Zharin calls on the new Polish authorities to make their main task - custody of the Polish heritage abroad, including in Galicia.
There is a public demand for such a policy in Poland. In mid-October, a map of the country in the colors of the national flag was displayed in the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where Ukrainian Lviv and Lithuanian Vilnius, a part of Belarus and Lithuania belong to Polish territory. Such an advertising banner was made by the organizers of the charity Run of Independence. These include the public organization Aktywna Warszava, the mayor of the Polish capital, Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, Gazeta Wyborcza and PKO BP Bank, which, by the way, has its branches in Ukraine.
Banners hung all over Warsaw. In response to timid protests of the Ukrainian authorities, the Polish Foreign Ministry explained that this is not a state position, but a private point of view. Just to advertise the run in honor of the national holiday of Poland were used the contours of its pre-war territory.
This example is not unique. The movement of the Poles, who want to take their lands from Ukraine, is gaining strength in the country. So far, there are only 600 of them, but 100 of thousands more people are already ready to prove that they are the heirs of the owners of land and houses in the territory of East Crees.
Poland has not yet grown to leadership in Europe
The reality of these goals raises great doubts. It is appropriate to assess in general the talk about the accession of the Ukrainian territories to various European states, including Poland. Serious analysts do not even pose the question. There are geopolitical reasons in it, until the realization of which the self-confident Polish politician has not yet risen either by forces or opportunities. But more economic obstacles. Let's see them on the example of Germany. In early October, she celebrated the anniversary of her association.
Twenty-five years ago, Germany had the third largest technological economy of the world after the United States and Japan. She was not stingy. From 1990 to 2014, the Germans invested more than two trillion euros in the economy of the five eastern lands. (Over these years, the east of Germany spent a half trillion more than it earned itself. Direct financial transfers amounted to 560 billion euros.) So in Germany they tried to raise the welfare of the population of the former GDR to the German level. The result is, but not quite the one that was sought by a quarter of a century. This is how his analyst Joachim Ragnitz assesses his analyst at the Dresden Institute of Economics: “In the foreseeable future, the standard of living of a statistical resident in the east of the country will be only two thirds of the standard of living in western Germany.”
It is worth adding that now the FRG has moved to the fifth position among the world economies. Forward missed China and India. Close to Germany, in terms of gross domestic product (calculated at purchasing power parity), Russia and Brazil approached in 2014. Such is the price of the Germans for the unification of the country.
The economy of Poland takes a modest place 23. Even at this stage, it rose with the strong support of the European Union. In March, the Ministry of Infrastructure and Development of Poland published an analysis of the implementation of EU programs for 2007-2013. The goal of the programs is to make the economy of the Republic of Poland competitive. They are financed by the European Commission in the amount of 68 billion euros. Another 100 billion came into the country as an investment. This has reduced the gap in the level of economic development between Poland and the EU. Before joining the Union, the Poles had it with less than 50% of the average European. Now - 63%. As you can see, the comparison is given to the average value for the European Union, and not to its leaders.
On the 2014-2020 years, the EU allocated another 82,5 billion euros for Polish state needs. The money will be spent on research, public transport, the construction of roads and railways, development of entrepreneurship, etc. Local government authorities will receive more than 41 billion euros from this amount.
Meanwhile, more than seven million people live in Galicia, Volyn and Polesye - 18,7% of the Polish population. Poland-sponsored Poland to raise the welfare of such a mass of people is clearly not under force.
But these are internal problems of Poland. Exterior manifest themselves in the territory claimed by the Poles. Its area is almost 90 000 sq.km. The accession of such a region makes the Polish Republic more than the Federal Republic of Germany for the whole of Denmark. Europe is clearly not ready for such a geopolitical plot. This is evident from the nervousness with which the policies of the continent perceived the results of the Sunday elections in Poland.
On the continent, remember the first arrival in the power of the party "Law and Justice." Then the Kaczynski brothers pretty nerves of the leaders of the European Union. Promoting the interests of Americans in Europe, they actively used the right of "veto". Made confusion in the agreements reached. In 2007, Lech Kaczynski, for example, blocked the adoption of the founding document of the European Union - the Lisbon Treaty. The President of Poland did not like the fact that the possibilities of his country under the terms of the new agreement differ from those provided to the leading countries of the Union. For almost two years, Kaczynski did not sign the treaty, but he failed to equate the Poles with the French and Italians.
A sign of that time was the constant quarrels of Polish leaders with German partners, as they say now, partners. Lech Kaczynski, whose father fought against the Nazis in the Regional Army and was a participant in the Warsaw Uprising, constantly presented to Germany historical claim.
Jaroslav did not lag behind his twin brother. He did not hesitate to personally criticize Chancellor Angela Merkel. From her, Kaczynski demanded to stop financing the organizations of the resettled Germans - the Union of the Expelled and Prussian Guardianship. According to him, “the termination of this practice would prove that Germany is part of the European Union.”
But the Polish National Conservatives helped the Americans as best they could. They even invited the United States to deploy its antimissile system in Poland weapon. The development of these systems, the Europeans are not very supported. Polish policy and this time went against the interests of the continent.
After the current election, the leader of the Law and Justice Party, Jaroslav Kaczynski, made two landmark statements. He noted that now no European problem will be solved without a Polish vote, as if claiming a blocking role in the EU. And in an interview with the British The Guardian, Kaczynski expressed his willingness to extradite in the United States the world-famous Polish director Roman Polanski, who was accused of a sex offense 38-year-old. At one time, the authorities of France and Switzerland did not dare to take this step, but the leader of PiS is ready to sacrifice even sovereignty, if only to make a curtsey to the United States. On October 30, a Krakow court rejected Washington’s request for the extradition of Polanski. However, the final decision on the fate of a famous director will be taken by the new Minister of Justice of Poland, and Jaroslaw Kaczynski has a chance to push his promise to the Americans in this department.
In short, the post-election background in Warsaw does not bode well for Europe. She can only hope that the President and Prime Minister of Poland will be more compliant and even those tens of billions of euros that the Poles have been promised to level their wealth to the average European.
Information fake as a mirror of political goals
Not everyone in Poland was pleased with such election results. This is how their editor-in-chief of Gazeta Wyborcza, Adam Michnik, appreciated: “We have very difficult four years before us, I have no doubt that this power will not be like all previous ones. There will be provocations, eavesdropping. The policy will be superseded by the model of conducting operations by the special services. ”
Michnik is a very charismatic public figure for Poland. The world remembers him one of the most active representatives of the opposition 1968 — 1989. Now, a veteran of Polish politics predicts disastrous consequences for his country "due to Euroscepticism, xenophobic and nationalist views" of the leaders and activists of the victorious party.
“The Poles have woken up in another country,” the leading Polish publications now write. They imply above all the political domination of one party.
For the first time, the Law and Justice Party, led by the Kaczynski brothers, won the election ten years ago. Then she headed the country's coalition government, and its leader, Lech Kaczynski, became president of Poland.
“Law and Justice” will last only two years in power. It will be replaced by the "Civic Platform". After the tragic death in the plane crash of President Kaczynski, "PiS" will also lose its highest public office. Now she has regained political positions and even strengthened them.
Shortly before the election, 20 of October, the online edition of the Russian Spring (it, as the source indicates the portal stopfake.org) published news with the title "President of Poland:" Ukraine must voluntarily return the Polish lands. " With reference to the broadcast of the program “Case for a Reporter” on the Polish TVP TV 1, a fragment of a speech by the President of Poland Andrzej Duda was given at a meeting of the Sejm in the message “The Russian Spring”. In it, Duda called on the Poles to be ready to fight for the return of the former Polish lands - Galicia, Volyn and Polesye (at present - Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn and Rivne regions of Ukraine). Literally, it turned out like this: “I urge all citizens of the Polish Republic to be ready to fight for the return of the former Polish lands, where our compatriots continue to be persecuted and humiliated by the new Ukrainian leadership. If modern Ukraine condemns the actions of the USSR, - and she condemns them, then this state should voluntarily return the lands of Poland that belonged to it before the 1939 year. ”
Serious editions ignored this news. First of all, because the last meeting of the Polish Sejm before the elections was already October 9. In addition, there is no mention of the speech of Andrzej Duda to the Polish parliamentarians on the website of the Presidential Administration of Poland. Such, as they say, one hundred percent fake, or in our opinion, in a simple way, is nonsense.
However, this stuffing was easily picked up by many online publications (Newsli.ru, Rusimperia.info, DossierKIEV, Occupation.NET and others). It is unlikely that all of them were prompted by malicious intent. Just a fake about Duda's speech organically merged with the goals that the Law and Justice party sets itself. Even in the first coming to power she promised to build the so-called Fourth Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (IV RP). In the new conditions, “PiS” diluted its political slogans with left-wing populism, such as an active state policy of social protection of the poor, reducing the tax burden, and liberalizing the economy. With that, she came to power.
But the fundamental goals of the party have not changed. This is how Jan Zharin, a well-known Polish historian, the newly elected senator from the now presidential party “Law and Justice” speaks about this: “There is no Polish people without Lviv, a city that has always been faithful to Poland. Today it is obvious. ” In an interview with Prawy, Zharin calls on the new Polish authorities to make their main task - custody of the Polish heritage abroad, including in Galicia.
There is a public demand for such a policy in Poland. In mid-October, a map of the country in the colors of the national flag was displayed in the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where Ukrainian Lviv and Lithuanian Vilnius, a part of Belarus and Lithuania belong to Polish territory. Such an advertising banner was made by the organizers of the charity Run of Independence. These include the public organization Aktywna Warszava, the mayor of the Polish capital, Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, Gazeta Wyborcza and PKO BP Bank, which, by the way, has its branches in Ukraine.
Banners hung all over Warsaw. In response to timid protests of the Ukrainian authorities, the Polish Foreign Ministry explained that this is not a state position, but a private point of view. Just to advertise the run in honor of the national holiday of Poland were used the contours of its pre-war territory.
This example is not unique. The movement of the Poles, who want to take their lands from Ukraine, is gaining strength in the country. So far, there are only 600 of them, but 100 of thousands more people are already ready to prove that they are the heirs of the owners of land and houses in the territory of East Crees.
Poland has not yet grown to leadership in Europe
The reality of these goals raises great doubts. It is appropriate to assess in general the talk about the accession of the Ukrainian territories to various European states, including Poland. Serious analysts do not even pose the question. There are geopolitical reasons in it, until the realization of which the self-confident Polish politician has not yet risen either by forces or opportunities. But more economic obstacles. Let's see them on the example of Germany. In early October, she celebrated the anniversary of her association.
Twenty-five years ago, Germany had the third largest technological economy of the world after the United States and Japan. She was not stingy. From 1990 to 2014, the Germans invested more than two trillion euros in the economy of the five eastern lands. (Over these years, the east of Germany spent a half trillion more than it earned itself. Direct financial transfers amounted to 560 billion euros.) So in Germany they tried to raise the welfare of the population of the former GDR to the German level. The result is, but not quite the one that was sought by a quarter of a century. This is how his analyst Joachim Ragnitz assesses his analyst at the Dresden Institute of Economics: “In the foreseeable future, the standard of living of a statistical resident in the east of the country will be only two thirds of the standard of living in western Germany.”
It is worth adding that now the FRG has moved to the fifth position among the world economies. Forward missed China and India. Close to Germany, in terms of gross domestic product (calculated at purchasing power parity), Russia and Brazil approached in 2014. Such is the price of the Germans for the unification of the country.
The economy of Poland takes a modest place 23. Even at this stage, it rose with the strong support of the European Union. In March, the Ministry of Infrastructure and Development of Poland published an analysis of the implementation of EU programs for 2007-2013. The goal of the programs is to make the economy of the Republic of Poland competitive. They are financed by the European Commission in the amount of 68 billion euros. Another 100 billion came into the country as an investment. This has reduced the gap in the level of economic development between Poland and the EU. Before joining the Union, the Poles had it with less than 50% of the average European. Now - 63%. As you can see, the comparison is given to the average value for the European Union, and not to its leaders.
On the 2014-2020 years, the EU allocated another 82,5 billion euros for Polish state needs. The money will be spent on research, public transport, the construction of roads and railways, development of entrepreneurship, etc. Local government authorities will receive more than 41 billion euros from this amount.
Meanwhile, more than seven million people live in Galicia, Volyn and Polesye - 18,7% of the Polish population. Poland-sponsored Poland to raise the welfare of such a mass of people is clearly not under force.
But these are internal problems of Poland. Exterior manifest themselves in the territory claimed by the Poles. Its area is almost 90 000 sq.km. The accession of such a region makes the Polish Republic more than the Federal Republic of Germany for the whole of Denmark. Europe is clearly not ready for such a geopolitical plot. This is evident from the nervousness with which the policies of the continent perceived the results of the Sunday elections in Poland.
On the continent, remember the first arrival in the power of the party "Law and Justice." Then the Kaczynski brothers pretty nerves of the leaders of the European Union. Promoting the interests of Americans in Europe, they actively used the right of "veto". Made confusion in the agreements reached. In 2007, Lech Kaczynski, for example, blocked the adoption of the founding document of the European Union - the Lisbon Treaty. The President of Poland did not like the fact that the possibilities of his country under the terms of the new agreement differ from those provided to the leading countries of the Union. For almost two years, Kaczynski did not sign the treaty, but he failed to equate the Poles with the French and Italians.
A sign of that time was the constant quarrels of Polish leaders with German partners, as they say now, partners. Lech Kaczynski, whose father fought against the Nazis in the Regional Army and was a participant in the Warsaw Uprising, constantly presented to Germany historical claim.
Jaroslav did not lag behind his twin brother. He did not hesitate to personally criticize Chancellor Angela Merkel. From her, Kaczynski demanded to stop financing the organizations of the resettled Germans - the Union of the Expelled and Prussian Guardianship. According to him, “the termination of this practice would prove that Germany is part of the European Union.”
But the Polish National Conservatives helped the Americans as best they could. They even invited the United States to deploy its antimissile system in Poland weapon. The development of these systems, the Europeans are not very supported. Polish policy and this time went against the interests of the continent.
After the current election, the leader of the Law and Justice Party, Jaroslav Kaczynski, made two landmark statements. He noted that now no European problem will be solved without a Polish vote, as if claiming a blocking role in the EU. And in an interview with the British The Guardian, Kaczynski expressed his willingness to extradite in the United States the world-famous Polish director Roman Polanski, who was accused of a sex offense 38-year-old. At one time, the authorities of France and Switzerland did not dare to take this step, but the leader of PiS is ready to sacrifice even sovereignty, if only to make a curtsey to the United States. On October 30, a Krakow court rejected Washington’s request for the extradition of Polanski. However, the final decision on the fate of a famous director will be taken by the new Minister of Justice of Poland, and Jaroslaw Kaczynski has a chance to push his promise to the Americans in this department.
In short, the post-election background in Warsaw does not bode well for Europe. She can only hope that the President and Prime Minister of Poland will be more compliant and even those tens of billions of euros that the Poles have been promised to level their wealth to the average European.
Information