Military Review

Endless confrontation

17
Experts of the Valdai Club predicted a confrontation between two world poles: on the one hand, there will be states led by the United States, on the other, those who will join the group of China and Russia. A distinctive feature of the dark era is likely to be “hybrid wars”, the policy of mutual sanctions and the so-called transfer of territories. The topic of the current meeting of the international discussion club was not without purpose called “War and peace, people and the state, the threat of a big conflict in the 21st century”.


Endless confrontation
They smell weak (USNews, USA) http://inopro.ru


The participants of the meeting were offered the material “War and Peace of the 21st Century. For international stability, a new type of balance is needed ”, the authorship of which belongs to a team of Russian and foreign experts. The document was available RBC.

In the article “War and Peace of the XXI Century”, the authors note that “humanity was again at the turn, everyone understands that fundamental changes are coming, but no one is able to comprehend them or at least draw the contours of the future, everyone wants peace, but everyone he sees the way to him. ”

Among the global threats, the authors list the competition of major powers, provocations of medium and small states and cross-border challenges. To all of this, the world powers cannot give a weighted and coordinated response, since they are developing in different conditions. Moreover, new means of communication not only do not help them to hear each other, but "almost destroy the ability to correctly understand the interlocutor." As a result, states continue to play without rules, even diverging from interpretations of basic terms: "stability", "security", "progress" and "democracy."

The result of mutual misunderstanding is obvious to experts: the world is at a fork. What next? Revolutionary explosion? Or slow system changes? The authors see no predetermination of the revolutionary path. In their view, there are still chances for reform.

Key concepts of the document - transfer of territories and sanctions.

China, Russia and a number of states will compete with the West (the US, the EU and their allies). However, confrontation in the spirit of the Cold War is not to be expected. Probably, the possibility of free movement of people and the movement of goods and capital will remain in the new world. Nevertheless, both “groups” of states will continue to wage “hybrid struggle” from time to time.

The “big game” will cover the geographic “gray zone” (most of the countries of Latin America, Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and probably Eastern Europe). It will also be conducted in the information, technology and other areas. Due to territorial disputes, transfer of territories may be inevitable. Transfer or loss of territory can be compensated by maintaining economic openness.

Sanctions and counter sanctions in open or hidden form will be common practice.

Conflict will be limited by global nuclear deterrence.

As for the UN Security Council, its legitimacy will be questioned. Therefore, it is possible that informal platforms like G-20 will be considered by the world community as a political counterpart of the Security Council.

In such conditions, it will be natural for the Russian Federation to find a mutually beneficial compromise in conjunction with China, because the economic power of the Middle Kingdom is harmoniously combined with the military power of Russia. Both Russia and China are interested in regional security and political stability.

At a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, the President of Russia answered questions from Russian and foreign political scientists. In the context of the “big game” and “hybrid wars”, some of the answers of Vladimir Putin to guests from abroad are very interesting.

Andrei Tsygankov, a professor at the University of San Francisco, asked the Russian president the following question: “The conflict between the values ​​of Russia and the United States is growing. What is the problem?"

"If you look at the reasoning of our thinkers, philosophers, representatives of classical Russian literature, they see the reasons for the differences between Russia and the West in a broad sense in the difference of worldviews," Putin’s response is "Arguments and Facts". - And in part they are right. The basis of the Russian - the idea of ​​good and evil, of higher powers, the divine principle. At the heart of the western - I don’t want it to sound somehow embarrassing, but still - interest, pragmatics ... "

V. Putin explained: when the US policy "is based on some kind of messianism and exclusivity," Russia "finds it difficult to conduct a dialogue in this format, because it is a departure from our common traditional values, which are based, of course, on the equality of all people before the Creator ". Nevertheless, all this “does not mean that we cannot, or should not, look for points of contact in such a frame of reference.” The President of Russia said: “We will do it. They would very much expect that the partners are ready for such work. ”

“What is the place of Russia in the future world?” Will there be three stars of the first magnitude - is it Russia, the USA and China? Two groups of countries - is the West and not the West? Russia will take the first place, but in the second row, and only the USA and China will be in the first row? ”Such a complex, almost futuristic, question asked Russian President Sheng Shiliang from the Chinese Xinhua news agency.

“In the modern world,” said President Putin, “the role and importance of any state in the world will depend on the level of development of the economy of a country. It depends on how modern this economy is, aspiring to the future, how much it is based on the newest technologies ... I think that Russia has every chance of being one of the leaders, bearing in mind the high level of education of the population and the high level of development of basic science. Problems have always been and always will be, just like in other countries. But we pay more and more attention to giving a new impetus to the development of these key areas. If we bear in mind these circumstances and absolutely natural competitive advantages, then Russia will certainly play a significant role. ”

One of the indicators of the divergence of the positions of the “two groups”, we add from ourselves, were the opinions of Russian analysts on the position of the US and the EU, who “did not learn the lessons”, on Valdai.

“According to the panelists, the US and the EU have not learned the main lesson from recent events in the Middle East: destruction, the violent overthrow of the regime leads to the destruction of the state, followed by chaos, anarchy and strengthening of such organizations as Islamic State and Al -Kaid ", opposed to modern civilizational norms. The Arab Spring did not bring democracy and development to the states of the Middle East. However, even taking into account all these lessons, Western countries do not change their approach to the region ", - quotes RIA News" organizers of the event, following the results of discussions.

The experts also noted that "the fall of the state in Syria under the blows of the IG will be a catastrophe for the entire region, religious extremism will begin to spread even more rapidly throughout the world."

“The threat of a big conflict in the 21st century,” we add, can become a reality if humanity continues to prefer “hybrid wars” and “messianism and exclusivity” to peace and fraternity. American attempts to dictate from the position of “I am always right” have already led to the nightmares of the war in Iraq, then to the horrors of the “Arab spring”, the destruction of most of Syria, the emergence of an army of fanatical bearded Islamic State and millions of refugees rushing to Turkey and Europe. Relative calm on the globe is possible only in one case, there are no options for it: the United States refuses its moralizing and claims for the role of "messiah". In all other cases, the world will continue to slide into the abyss of total confrontation, where everyone will be enemies of all and where allies can only be temporary.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
17 comments
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  1. strelets
    strelets 30 October 2015 06: 51 New
    +1
    It is not known what will happen even in five years, let alone the end of the century. Probably, the main thing is not to give up, to work, to take care of the interests of our country. As they say, do what you should, and be what happens.
  2. inkass_98
    inkass_98 30 October 2015 06: 54 New
    0
    The US and the EU have not learned the main lesson from the events in the Middle East in recent years: the destruction, the violent overthrow of the regime leads to the destruction of the state, followed by chaos, anarchy
    They are not going to learn these lessons, since they are teachers of the disciplines of chaos and destruction. What have they created in recent years, at least forty? No shit! With the exception of the unification of Germany, this was done in their own favor, with the assistance of the USSR, which they then vilely threw. Everything that the hands of the States and Western Europe touch is transformed into decay, devastation, blood and chaos. And the IMF as a control in the head.
    "Do not write to me about love, I will not believe" (C) Vysotsky.
  3. aszzz888
    aszzz888 30 October 2015 07: 18 New
    0
    Relative calm on the globe is possible only in one case, it has no options: the United States renounces its moralizing and claims to be the “messiah”.


    Mericatos will never give up their policies voluntarily.
    But nobody is ready to force them to this yet.
    1. Voha_krim
      Voha_krim 30 October 2015 08: 21 New
      +1
      Quote: aszzz888
      Relative calm on the globe is possible only in one case, it has no options: the United States renounces its moralizing and claims to be the “messiah”.


      Mericatos will never give up their policies voluntarily.
      But nobody is ready to force them to this yet.
  4. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 30 October 2015 08: 09 New
    +1
    Mattressoids will not refuse anything. They will cling their teeth to the last, until they die.
    As soon as most countries abandon the dollar - mattress kirdyk.
  5. Felix1
    Felix1 30 October 2015 08: 23 New
    0
    another delusional article, there is no such group as Russia and China, there is separately Russia and separately China which is just waiting for the right moment ..... by the way, another lot of land has been handed over to China for 50 years, as I understand this is the same transfer of lands that the author mentions in the article?
    1. Kalmar
      Kalmar 30 October 2015 23: 08 New
      +1
      there is no such group as Russia and China, there is separately Russia and separately China which is just waiting for the right moment ...

      Of course. Foreign policy - it is like that, it has no place for disinterested friendship and other calf tendernesses. And the allies remain constituents only as long as it is beneficial for them (or until one of the allies can force the other to the union). Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that Russia is no friend to China, and if necessary, the Chinese will calmly throw us, sell them or squeeze us.
  6. Vladimir71
    Vladimir71 30 October 2015 09: 32 New
    +1
    It is not necessary to be first or second, the main thing is that the first and second know that they are under the gun of the third and behave appropriately)))
  7. afrikanez
    afrikanez 30 October 2015 09: 47 New
    0
    Analysts and experts are already embarrassed. All are well aware that in order for the world to reign, you just need to calm down the United States. Why breed any kind of discussion.
    1. Das Boot
      Das Boot 30 October 2015 10: 25 New
      +1
      Quote: afrikanez
      that would reign peace, you just need to calm the United States.

      YEP, I would say ....
  8. Kalmar
    Kalmar 30 October 2015 11: 01 New
    +1
    At the heart of the Russian is the idea of ​​good and evil, of higher powers, a divine principle.

    What? What higher powers, what divine principle? Gentlemen, are we in some century in general, again in the tenth?

    In the modern world, President Putin replied, the role and importance of any state in the world will depend on the level of development of the economy of a country.

    Oh, they finally recognized aloud that the ability to bomb a bunch of warlike Aborigines in a distant African country is not enough to gain the status of a great power. I hope, at the same time, there is an understanding that "developing the economy", stupidly increasing oil and gas exports, is a profanity.

    Given these circumstances and absolutely natural competitive advantages, Russia will certainly play a prominent role

    Noticeable? I just said so - "noticeable"? No, no, no, that won't do. If we claim to be a great power, then the role should be key, especially considering the potential of our "partner" - China. Otherwise, we will simply be at a dance in this "partnership".
  9. roskot
    roskot 30 October 2015 13: 29 New
    +1
    Life will judge us and show on whose side the truth.
  10. Vladimir-R
    Vladimir-R 30 October 2015 18: 34 New
    0
    Something recently, the image of Russia in the drawings began to be presented in the form of a bear .. It’s good that Vuchetich, creating the monument / Motherland / in Volgograd .., did not think of this vulgarity .. Honestly .., the comparison of Russia with animals ..
    1. CT-55_11-9009
      CT-55_11-9009 1 November 2015 23: 29 New
      +1
      Why not? Goraazdo animals are better than humans. In the spiritual plan. Do you know a lot of animals that kill for pleasure? Here it is.
  11. epron
    epron 30 October 2015 22: 39 New
    +1
    Yes. better with a sword and a trident and the inscription "Mordor".
    Nature is insidious, but not malicious, and the bear is its best representative.
    Motherland in a caricature is just vulgarity.
  12. Sergey Loskutov
    Sergey Loskutov 31 October 2015 00: 38 New
    +1
    In my opinion, it is more correct to position Russia's modern role not as an opposition to the United States, and not even as an alliance with the PRC in the global world. Russia and China have their own geopolitical interests. The main message of the President is conservatism in resolving political disputes and issues - a return to the legal, international legal field. This return inevitably has at least the multipolarity of the world. The recognition of sovereignty based not only on the right of the strong. China, Russia, the United States are states whose sovereignty does not need to be confirmed. The armies of the PRC and Russia are ready to protect the interests of their country and their people. But in open armed confrontation the winner is the third party. Therefore, the approval of the right of the strong is not beneficial to civilized countries. For still the wild west (USA) does not exist tomorrow.
  13. Xsanchez
    Xsanchez 31 October 2015 01: 23 New
    0
    Brazil and South Africa will win World 3
  14. Balagan
    Balagan 31 October 2015 01: 27 New
    0
    Interesting article. Conclusion: The US failed the messianic role.
  15. ans
    ans 31 October 2015 18: 05 New
    0
    Quote: Kalmar
    If we claim to be a great power,

    We do not pretend ... Lightning strikes, usually on the tallest tree in the forest ... And GOD'S COURT probably on the most hegemonic and extremely arrogant ... Nah, we certainly do not pretend ... God's laws we strive for respect ... although not the tenth century ...