Military Review

Yevgeny Satanovsky: On the blade of the scimitar

48



The president of Turkey has many problems, created by him.

Parliamentary elections in Turkey are approaching. After them, the internal political situation in this country can change in the most unpredictable way, which is extremely important for Russia, given its role in the Middle East geopolitical scenario.

Ankara is not only one of the largest economic partners of Moscow. Our relations are influenced by projects aimed at increasing Turkey’s influence in the Turkic world (which includes Central Asia, Azerbaijan and much of Russia itself), the role of a hydrocarbon transit in the EU, processes in the Black Sea region and the Caucasus.

Green Corridor for terrorists

At the same time, roughness in Turkish-Russian relations does not play a significant role for bilateral relations. Even the crisis in Syria, having aggravated the rhetoric of the Turkish leadership towards Moscow after the appearance of the Russian Space Forces there, did not lead to their cooling down in practice. It should be noted here that confrontational statements by Turkish President R. T. Erdogan are common for his relations with any partners, including Germany and the United States. At the same time, the unprecedented development of Russian-Turkish relations is associated precisely with the period in which the Justice and Development Party (AKP) is in power, headed by Erdogan. It is not excluded that after losing her monopoly on power, these relations can enter a period of stagnation.

The Turkish leadership in the promotion of his plans brings immoderate ambitions and obvious voluntarism, manifested in the reassessment of Turkey's capabilities in the "Arab spring", including in an attempt to dislodge Assad in Syria, and in domestic policy. Erdogan, consistently entering into conflict with the army generals, veterans of the special services, the judiciary, Kurds, party opponents, followers of his closest ally F. Gulen, supporters of Kemal Atatürk’s traditions, left and right nationalists, secular circles, and anyone else whose views for the future of Turkey, it was contrary to its current, rapidly changing mood, with its own hands deprived itself of freedom of maneuver.

Indisputable achievements in the economy are worthless by failures in politics, many of which are difficult to explain. Intolerance to any obstacles, uncompromising in conflict situations, which Erdogan himself often creates, a change in attitudes towards allies and partners, who in his eyes instantly turn into enemies (as was the case with Gaddafi, Asad, and after the recent break in negotiations, replaced by air attacks, with the Kurds) prevented him from securing the regime of personal power within a presidential republic with an amended constitution. Conduct this course, he less defiantly, it is possible that he would have succeeded.

HistoryHowever, he does not know the subjunctive mood, and the situation in Turkey is developing as it is. The current Russian leadership is carrying out an indicative non-confrontational policy towards Ankara and personally Erdogan, adhering to Syria’s policy of preserving its statehood in opposition to terrorist organizations, along with the government army, local ethno-confessional militias and Iran. Turkey, on the contrary, along with Qatar and Saudi Arabia is one of the main customers and organizers of the Syrian civil war. Terrorists, including the Islamic State (IG), receive basic financial and logistical support through Turkey. It is also the main transit route for jihadists arriving in Syria and Iraq from around the world.

Close contacts with the latest Turkish special services make it more than cautious about their possible consequences for Russia if an appropriate decision is made in Ankara. The "reverse" of terrorists through Turkey with its visa-free regime is possible. Judging by the tense relations of the Turkish security forces with China, due to their support of the Uyghur terrorist underground, including in Afghanistan and Thailand, anything can be expected from them. Pre-election domestic political instability in Turkey, including possible personnel changes in the power bloc, contributes to this.

It is not by chance that a stable version emerged in the analytical community, stating that the only one who benefited from the terrorist attacks in Suruc and Ankara for domestic political combinations is Erdogan himself. The first terrorist attack, the organization of which was officially blamed by the IG, was the reason for the attack on the Kurdish Peoples Democracy Party (PDN) and its leader S. Demirtas, as well as a blow to the positions of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The “capital” of IG - Rakka, this Turkish attack to the rear of the Kurds, who were advancing on it, was actually saved. The second was accused of the PKK, the IG, the Front of the Revolutionary National Liberation and the “parallel state” of Gulen.

The theory of the “cocktail act of terrorism” put forward by the AKP was clearly designed for domestic consumption during the pre-election period: from the list of suspects, all but the IG soon disappeared. On October 16, the Turkish People’s Republican People’s Party (RPF) issued a statement that the alleged suicide bombers who carried out the terrorist attack in Ankara had been in sight of the Turkish security services for several years regarding their contacts with radical Islamic groups, including the IG and Al-Qaida ".

Trap problems

We state that the Turkish direction is one of the most important for Russia in the Middle East, if only because of the breadth of Ankara’s own interests. Ensuring security in the face of a terrorist threat, the situation in the Turkic world, Syria and Iraq, the Black Sea region, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Russia's relations with the EU and NATO are linked with Turkey. Let us consider in more detail the processes occurring in this country, relying on the materials of Yu. B. Shcheglovina and V. I. Kovalev, prepared for IBI.

The current situation in Turkey is characterized by:

The loss of the position of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the informal leader of which is Turkish President Erdogan, as a result of the general parliamentary elections 7 of June and the unsuccessful attempts of the AKP to adopt the new Constitution with the transition to presidential form of government.

The inaccessibility in the current conditions of a long-term alliance between the AKP and one of the country's three main opposition forces, as well as between the latter, which led to the failure of negotiations on the formation of a coalition government and re-elections scheduled for November 1.

The economic instability of the transition period with the suspension of the implementation of key projects for the country in the infrastructure sector and capital outflows. The fall of the national currency and inflation in the course of the current year.

The increasing flow of immigrants and refugees from Syria, settling in Turkey (officially their number is about two million people, unofficially - more than three million) in the absence of significant support, including financial, from the United States and the European Union.

Polarization of society.

Difficult relations with neighbors in the region, as well as the US and the EU, because of which Ankara lost its strategically beneficial status of neutrality in resolving regional disputes.

Complicated relations with Russia - the main market for Turkish products and services in accordance with the “Export Strategy”, a key energy supplier and an important investor in the economy (the largest project is Akkuyu NPP).

The growing criticism of the president, prime minister A. Davutoglu and the AKP with regard to internal political and economic instability, with the disappointment of a significant part of the population with foreign policy, especially with the position addressed to official Damascus.

The likelihood of the 7 June scenario being repeated in elections with the inability of the AKP to form a one-party government and, as a consequence, the need to negotiate with opponents is high.

At the heart of the AKP's electoral strategy is the curtailment of a peaceful settlement with the PKK and an unsuccessful attempt to oust the pro-Kurdish PDN from politics with a subsequent shift of focus to other competitors, the NPF and the Nationalist Movement Party (IPA). Until the main issue, which for the JDP is to ensure a simple majority in parliament (Majlis) in the November 1 elections, is resolved, Turkey will not be able to activate or change its policy in Syria. The situation for the Turks is complicated by the fact that the United States regards the Syrian Kurds as one of the main candidates for an alliance in the fight against IS, and President Assad looks like an increasingly legitimate dialogue partner for Europeans.

Between extremists and investors

The unilateral commencement by Turkey of a land operation in Syria (“to protect the Turkomans”) without the support of the US / NATO in the current situation is unlikely, although special operations by the Turkish Armed Forces in Syrian territory cannot be ruled out by analogy with their raids in northern Iraq. At the same time, Turkey continues its attempts to convince the US / NATO of the need to organize a no-fly security zone on the Turkish-Syrian border, citing the humanitarian crisis and the need to protect the civilian, including Turkish Turkoman population of Syria, harshly criticizing the beginning of US military assistance to the Syrian Kurds. The clash of Turkey with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is extremely undesirable for Ankara.

Its currently observed desire to intensify the material and technical support of the Syrian opposition can have a negative impact on the economic stability of the country. The war against the PKK did not justify itself. The Turkish army suffers small but permanent losses. To solve the problem of the combat activity of the Kurds, it can not. Initially, it was implied that the president, arguing his actions by the antiterrorist campaign, would be able to transfer the polling stations from the Kurdish regions, reducing the electoral base of the PDN. But the Turkish Supreme Court failed this initiative, which indicates that Erdogan did not succeed in completely liquidating the opposition circles in the judicial corps.

Turkish leadership miscalculated in the Syrian direction. The military operation of the Russian Federation in Syria violated the plans of Erdogan, who, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, planned to finish off Assad’s army for parliamentary elections or to demonstrate that its position is hopeless. For this, he had to make a humiliating compromise with the United States regarding the Incirlik base. Now Turkey is facing the prospect of becoming the main springboard of subversive activity against Damascus, the consequences of which are difficult to calculate. Camps for the preparation of Syrian opposition members will be located on Turkish territory, most of whom adhere to extremely radical Salafi views. This potential destabilizing factor will be taken into account by any potential investors.

The main negative consequence of personal sympathies and antipathies rather than political and economic expediency of the Turkish president’s policy was the failure of Ankara’s energy strategy. The war in the Kurdish areas of Turkey jeopardizes the functioning of pipelines from Iran, along which Azerbaijani and Iranian gas flows. Erdogan’s harsh statements regarding the “Turkish Stream”, pushing the country's transformation into an energy hub, were badly received by the AKP and the national economic elite. The Minister of Energy and the Deputy Prime Minister, who oversees this area, explained that there are no problems in relations with Moscow on energy issues. But the investors have already heard the signal, as well as the fact that instead of building four branches of the “Turkish Stream” we are talking about one. SHELL and BP made it clear that the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline, worth 10 billions of dollars and the carrying capacity of 16 billion cubic meters per year, is under threat.

Cheka Party

In this regard, Erdogan is playing the "European card", blackmailing the EU with a migrant crisis. The result is the visit of German Chancellor A. Merkel to Ankara and her words about intentions "to promote Turkey's accession to the EU." True, Merkel had said before that she did not see Turkey as a member of the EU in the near future. As a result, Brussels will pay for the arrangement of camps in Turkish territory in exchange for changing the practice of Ankara to release anyone to Europe. But Europe will not provide military support for plans to create a no-fly zone in Syria, because it does not want the clashes of millions of Turks living in the EU and Kurds on the streets of European cities.

We note the looming crisis in the relations of the president and the special services of Turkey. We are talking about counter-terrorism units and the MIT intelligence service. The main reason is the cleansing of their personnel in recent years in order to get rid of the “fifth column” of Imam Gülen. The command and leadership of the highest and middle levels of the General Directorate of Security of the Police and the special body for conducting special operations Ozel Tim were particularly affected. The departure of experienced operatives and managers led to a rapid loss of the combat potential and competence of these special services. Moreover, Erdogan, offended by the Iranian leadership because of Syria, has banned working contacts with Iranian counter-terrorism units that specialized in the Kurdish issue. Among the “old cadres” of the siloviki, there is still serious skepticism regarding Erdogan and his henchmen in the special services.

The Turkish security system is in a deep organizational and personnel crisis, hardly responding to the current level of terrorist threats. Under the leadership of the closest associate of President Hakan Fidan, MIT is engaged in minimizing the “Kurdish threat” to the detriment of operations against jihadists and extreme nationalists, who are attributed by its leadership to “second-tier priorities”. At present, H. Fidan and MIT senior officers are negotiating with the Kurds to ensure that the AKP has beneficial voting results in their districts. Thus, the "clan" Buskas in the city of Sanliurfa is "processed." The AKP will also be supported by the Kurdish party Huba Par, the political wing of Hezbollah Kurdistan, created by MIT to work among the Kurds.

November 1 may become a swan song for the head of MIT. Rumors about his resignation are being discussed by the political and economic elite of Turkey. Dissatisfaction with Fidan’s activities is due to the unsatisfactory results of the implementation of its projects in the Kurdish sector. Thus, the truce with the PKK, which Fidan personally oversaw and lobbied at the highest level, ended in failure. His attempt to enter politics before the first parliamentary elections of 7 June was foiled by Erdogan. Fidan was persuaded to remain in his previous post with a promise to create a “superspecial service” for him, including in order to neutralize him as a potentially dangerous competitor to the current Turkish president. However, this promise was broken.

Currently, Erdogan plans not to strengthen Fidan, but to create a new special service and a power structure that would be completely loyal and personally subordinate to him, on the basis of the AKP youth wing, with Ismail Osaklari at the head. Its backbone should be the Ottoman Club association headed by him. Replace the existing special services in all areas of their activity, the new special services will not be able, but this task is not facing it. She is likely to deal with Erdogan’s competitors in order to stop the leadership of the AKP, which recalls the relevant steps of Mao Zedong and Omar al-Bashir in similar situations. This means that after the election of November 1, regardless of their outcome, the AKP and the government will expect resonant resignations.

Solid indifference

Among other things, trying to solve problems related to the situation in Syria, Erdogan stepped up pressure on the United States on the issue of the no-fly zone. Currently, the White House is once again considering scenarios of participation in the creation of such zones in Syria on the border with Jordan and Turkey. They were discussed at a meeting with representatives of the State Department, the presidential administration and the security forces. From Brussels, Erdogan did not receive a clear answer to this initiative. The United States has officially announced that they will not participate in the creation of no-fly zones. The Pentagon and the CIA are staunch opponents of this idea, but the meeting itself says that B. Obama's entourage in the person of S. Rice is trying to force it. It is clear that in addition to the repeated strengthening of the American air group, the creation of zones will require ground participation of US troops, which is unacceptable for the American president.

The Americans are wary of giving the entire security zone under the control of the Turkish army. Talking about the strategic US-Turkish cooperation on Syria is not necessary, as evidenced by the evidence provided at the aforementioned meeting of the CIA, regarding the fact that "the relationship of the Turkish special services with the igilovtsy" cause them questions. The situation in Syria and Turkey is comparable to the Pakistani-Afghan junction, where Pakistani Interdepartmental Intelligence supervised both the Taliban and Al-Qaida. Ankara needs a security zone to house camps there for training militants, providing channels for trade in smuggled oil and supplying patronized groups, including the IG, and the Americans are fully aware of this.

As far as can be judged, Washington will by all means avoid confrontation over Syria with Moscow and Tehran, good, the “weak link” in the system of American interests in the Middle East, among other things, is Baghdad, ready to look for support in Russia at any moment, as already found it in Iran. About Egypt and Algeria, warring with the Islamists, do not even have to say. Jordan and Morocco have strong friendly relations with Moscow. The UAE is ready to fight along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar in Yemen, but not in Syria. Kuwait is equally afraid of Iran and Iraq, Shiite and Salafi militants. Oman is in friendly relations with Iran and, like the Ibadi state, is not interested in Sunni and especially Salafi radicals defeating Syria in Syria, which will inevitably lead to the Alawite genocide.

As a result, Turkey in the political combinations of its president, associated with the crisis in Syria, can only rely on Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Moreover, neither one nor the other is going to give up the convenient status of external players, observers and sponsors of terrorist groups, giving Ankara the opportunity to bear the burden of the front-line state alone. Not the best starting position before the parliamentary elections ...
Author:
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http://vpk-news.ru/articles/27713
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  1. EFA
    EFA 29 October 2015 05: 37 New
    17
    Thank you so much for the interview, a lot of nuances in the "Turkish gambit" have become clear. In any case, Turkey will try to use the current situation to its advantage, even if they are bad at it.
    1. Altona
      Altona 29 October 2015 10: 23 New
      15
      Quote: EFA
      Thank you so much for the interview, a lot of nuances in the "Turkish gambit" have become clear. In any case, Turkey will try to use the current situation to its advantage, even if they are bad at it.

      ---------------------
      You could write much shorter ... Erdogan-chudil because:
      1) Decided to throw through member 2 of the superpower Russia as a neighbor and the United States as an ally;
      2) Entered into an alliance with the Saudis, who promised something, but most likely will be thrown, as it was more than once;
      3) Flirting with ISIS, buying cheap hydrocarbons from the occupied territories and creating bases for militants - to be honest, this would be enough to level Turkey with sand if the Turks were not an ally of the United States;
      4) Angry Germany, kicking off her migrants;
      5) Exacerbated relations with the Kurds;
      6) He plays with religious cards, not thinking that he can repeat the fate of Mubarak in Egypt and put just a mullah in power, like in Iran (what for do they need a secular dictator?) ...
      This is so, briefly ... And now, having so many serious problems, Erdogan is still trying to play something there ... Yes, he is just a desperate guy, this Erdogan ...
      1. bayard
        bayard 29 October 2015 14: 27 New
        +4
        Do not forget. that Erdogan is the leader of the Turkish Muslim brothers (born in Egypt in the 60s, headquarters in the SA). Of course, they are all freaks, but their midwives were the USA and Israel, and which of them is the tail that turns the dog around the rhetorical question. Turkey’s policy is suicidal, but it’s painful for the laurels of the Ottoman Empire’s restorer to beckon ... and ISIS helps Muslim brothers to help. Actually, the entire Islamic belt is now being set on fire in the hope of turning it into a war of civilizations, gathering the entire Islamic world for jihad under the banners of ISIS ... at the same time reducing the population of the ball.
    2. igor.borov775
      igor.borov775 29 October 2015 10: 29 New
      12
      One of the few specialists in the east of the old school. The small volume of the article and the accurate and capacious analysis that the old school people have always been famous for. It is unfortunate that they are almost not heard. Now other priorities are welcome.
      1. Your friend
        Your friend 29 October 2015 13: 04 New
        +4
        Quote: igor.borov775
        One of the few specialists in the east of the old school. The small volume of the article and the accurate and capacious analysis that the old school people have always been famous for. It is unfortunate that they are almost not heard. Now other priorities are welcome.

        Satanovsky is constantly invited to television. Solovyov is a frequent visitor.
  2. svp67
    svp67 29 October 2015 05: 45 New
    +5
    Turkey is playing its game. Just recently, Erdagan said that he would not stop before the bombing of the Kurds, if only to prevent the formation of their autonomy near the border with Turkey, and it is all the same to him that the United States called the Kurds their allies
    1. stalkerwalker
      stalkerwalker 29 October 2015 08: 36 New
      +9
      Quote: svp67
      Turkey is playing its game.

      How boldly and fairly correctly determined the position of Turkey Eraz (also, by the way, which has gone nowhere), Erdogan is quite consistently building the New Ottoman Empire, taking into account the specifics of the EU, where he is invited, but not allowed.
      Forgive the Belarusians, but at times the throwing and contradictions, the statements of Father But and Erdogan are very similar.
      Both the one and the other sit for a long time and firmly in the chairs. Both would like "... the native country to live and flourish ...", both have a country at the side with an open front of two mutually hating sides. And both are well aware that without the support of Big Brother, his country has no future. Not in the way they see this future.
      This is an attempt to find a mythical "third way" for a "small but proud" and independent on the scale of European geopolitics, a country.
      1. Stas57
        Stas57 29 October 2015 10: 35 New
        +2
        Quote: stalkerwalker
        Both the one and the other sit for a long time and firmly in the chairs. Both would like "... the native country to live and flourish ...", both have a country at the side with an open front of two mutually hating sides. And both are well aware that without the support of Big Brother, his country has no future. Not in the way they see this future.
        This is an attempt to find a mythical "third way" for a "small but proud" and independent on the scale of European geopolitics, a country.

        hi
        Erdogan sits very shaky.
        and by the way, he was caught between 2x lights, the last time he was in Istanbul, he met a scolding from both the progressive ataturkavtsev and the radicals
        1. stalkerwalker
          stalkerwalker 29 October 2015 11: 46 New
          +3
          Quote: Stas57
          Erdogan sits very shaky.

          Hi!
          hi
          Those who take it out (let them steer it!) Are no more adequate.
      2. Yeraz
        Yeraz 30 October 2015 12: 20 New
        +1
        Quote: stalkerwalker
        How boldly and fairly correctly determined the position of Turkey Eraz

        Well, I kind of never went anywhere.
        Quote: stalkerwalker
        Forgive the Belarusians, but at times the throwing and contradictions, the statements of Father But and Erdogan are very similar.

        True, they are very similar. But Erdo, in a huge margin, makes two opposing statements at intervals of several months.
        Erdogan leads Turkey into a dictatorship, crushing freedom. And believe in the former CIS countries, far from Turkish freedom of speech. And in the government itself there are various groups that Erdo is trying to destroy.
        Just recently, a new scandal broke out in Turkey related to SOCAR (State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan), this company is one of the largest investors in the Turkish economy building its oil-industrial complexes. And it turned out that there are many Nursists. The first wave of stripping was in Azerbaijan itself, when information was transmitted to the Nursists in the echelons of power in Azerbaijan. Right now, the second wave, but so far Baku has not taken any action.
        The Turkish authorities and the opposition are very diverse and diverse.
    2. veksha50
      veksha50 29 October 2015 10: 34 New
      0
      Quote: svp67
      Turkey is playing its game.


      This is clear ... However, Satanovsky clearly laid out on the shelves, and from his interviews it is more or less clear that this game is torn, similar to the Brownian movement, and it is not clear what to expect from Erdogan both allies and opponents ... And such a game that does not have a clear goal and an understandable model, mechanisms for achieving it, and taking into account the wishes of the surrounding players, will never lead to a positive result ...

      PS Although Erdogan is a "twitchy" politician, however, it seems to me that with the coming to power of another, our relations may change for an even worse side ...
  3. Armored optimist
    Armored optimist 29 October 2015 05: 49 New
    +6
    Erdogan, as I see it, is a "lame duck". Will soon be left without power. I heard from Turkish partners that all his relatives are already moving to Europe. Assets are being sold or transferred from Turkey.
    1. svp67
      svp67 29 October 2015 06: 37 New
      +2
      Quote: armored optimist
      Erdogan, as I see it, is a "lame duck".

      I am afraid that this "duck" will not "pinch" many yet
    2. Your friend
      Your friend 29 October 2015 13: 05 New
      0
      Quote: armored optimist
      Erdogan, as I see it, is a "lame duck". Will soon be left without power. I heard from Turkish partners that all his relatives are already moving to Europe. Assets are being sold or transferred from Turkey.

      It is very interesting who will replace Erdogan.
  4. venaya
    venaya 29 October 2015 06: 10 New
    +2
    trying to solve the problems associated with the situation in Syria, Erdogan increased pressure on the United States on the issue of no-fly zone

    Doesn't it seem that Erdogan's position, by definition, can be classified as extremist. Something he flirts too much, not according to his status. Here issues are decided by more serious players, "not according to Senka hat", so they say to us in such cases.
    1. ImPerts
      ImPerts 29 October 2015 06: 28 New
      +3
      Erdogan is extremely impulsive, which leads to "extremism" in his actions. It is possible that he has a pronounced sense of justice, most likely with the right principles, but haste in making decisions hinders rather than helps. Hence the "extremism".
      And in politics it is very difficult to be impulsive)))
  5. sisa29
    sisa29 29 October 2015 06: 12 New
    +2
    Thanks aftor, a good, informative article
  6. ImPerts
    ImPerts 29 October 2015 06: 29 New
    +4
    What can not be taken away from Satanovsky is knowledge and experience on Middle Eastern problems)))
    1. ancient
      ancient 29 October 2015 10: 02 New
      +5
      Quote: ImPerts
      What Satanovsky does not take away is knowledge and experience on Middle Eastern problems)


      What do you think Yevgeny Yanovich has "problems" in some other spheres and aspects?

      I don’t know ... one of the very few public people in Russia to whom I take off my hat !!! soldier
  7. 3 Gorynych
    3 Gorynych 29 October 2015 06: 39 New
    0
    Turks always, like the Chinese, were on their minds. And they didn’t have any particularly friendly feelings for Russia. And they remained conquerors in their blood ...
    1. andj61
      andj61 29 October 2015 09: 13 New
      +2
      Quote: 3
      Turks always, like the Chinese, were on their minds. And they didn’t have any particularly friendly feelings for Russia. And they remained conquerors in their blood ...

      The ancestors of today's Turks, Oguzes, wandered in the Great Steppe from the Volga to Altai, from the Tyumen swamps and Iranian plateaus. And of course, they conquered the territory of present-day Turkey. But the Ottoman-Ottoman Empire was strong due to the unsurpassed warriors - brought up in the Muslim faith of the Slavic-Mountain-Turkic-Hungarian, etc. boys who until the 18th century made up the best army in the world. In addition, there was still practiced renegadeness, when European specialists of various levels, either having problems at home or lacking career opportunities, received such an opportunity in the Ottoman Empire after the adoption of Islam. So to say that it was the Turks who were the conquerors = - one can only with caution. And already from the 18th century - more than 200 years - the Turks were only retreating, the empire was rapidly falling apart, and one by one the peoples were moving away from it. Now there are many Kurds living in Turkey, some of them in Armenia, from where they were expelled 100 years ago (or exterminated, or fled the Armenians). And Kurds make up Turkey’s main problem. But they do not want to give autonomy, even national-cultural, in an attempt to resolve this issue by military means. 100 years ago they managed to solve a similar issue - with both Armenians and Greeks. I strongly doubt that it will turn out to be done now with the Kurds - the world still has become different.
      1. andrew42
        andrew42 29 October 2015 10: 34 New
        +3
        Erdogan simply does not know enough or poorly the history of his people: it was the Turks who became servants, then rulers, and then grave-diggers of Arab caliphates. Pan-Turkism and Islam are warm and soft, the concepts diverging under the vectors by 90 degrees. Combination is possible, but in a limited space / time. Instead of looking for allies for the Turks among neighboring peoples, Erdogan zealously hardens everyone around. Adventurism and the pursuit of a mythical ideal that has never been, and never will be. Turks need a new Kemal, but where to get it?
        1. Bakht
          Bakht 30 October 2015 11: 14 New
          0
          Quote: andrew42
          Erdogan simply does not know enough or poorly the history of his people: it was the Turks who became servants, then rulers, and then grave-diggers of Arab caliphates.

          Did you happen to confuse the Ottoman Turks with the Mamelukes? Never Turks (neither the Seljuks nor the Ottomans) were slaves and slaves. That they buried the Caliphate is partly true. Rather, they buried Arab rule in Asia Minor.

          The Turks who came to Asia Minor were warriors. That is why they were given the land in flax management. And then, having settled on these lands, they created one of the strongest states of the Middle Ages. Which by the way besieged Vienna and conquered northern Africa. And their vassals (Crimean Tatars) reached Moscow.

          But as they say: then - not now.
      2. traveler
        traveler 30 October 2015 01: 16 New
        +3
        But the Ottoman-Ottoman Empire was strong due to the unsurpassed warriors - brought up in the Muslim faith of the Slavic-Mountain-Turkic-Hungarian, etc. boys who until the 18th century made up the best army in the world

        controversial statement - almost the entire territory of the Ottoman Empire was formed by the first quarter of the 16th century. at that time the entire corps of Janissaries consisted of only a few thousand people, and it was the guard (guard) of the Sultan. their role in large-scale conquests is zero, all military achievements on account of the Turkish militia and the Timariots. The main reason for creating such a guard from children without a clan and tribe was the tribalism of the Turks that was preserved at that time, in beiliks they still remembered their past independence from the Ottoman dynasty. the guard needed people who had no past.
        the increase in the Janissary corps and its transformation into a part of the Ottoman army only from the end of the 16th century, the increase in numbers was due to changes in the national structure of the corps - Muslims began to enroll in large numbers there, primarily the Turks themselves (they paid good money there). however, even in the 18th century, the basis of the army was the Timari Turks.
        100 years ago they managed to solve a similar issue - with both Armenians and Greeks. I strongly doubt that it will turn out to be done now with the Kurds - the world still has become different.

        100 years ago, 7 million Turks and 1,5 million Kurds accounted for 4 million Christian Armenians, Greeks, Aisors. while the entire male Turkish population was in the trenches. this did not prevent the extermination of Christians. Now, 60 million Turks account for 15 million Kurds, and if the question arises whether or not Turkey should be, I do not exclude the possibility that all democratic and humanitarian principles will be discarded and only those Kurds who manage to jump out abroad will survive. although I doubt very much that the case will take such a turn, most likely the confrontation with the RPK will be the same as in past years, sometimes more actively, sometimes almost a truce.
    2. Good me
      Good me 29 October 2015 11: 49 New
      +2
      Quote: 3
      Turks always, like the Chinese, were on their minds.


      And with all this "cleverness" of them, the Ottomans have repeatedly, throughout history, become a manipulative pseudo force in the hands of the European powers.

      They will remember that they will not allow themselves to be brought to the field covered with old rakes, they will be preserved as a state.

      But NO, so NO ... There are Ushakovs and Suvorovs.
  8. slizhov
    slizhov 29 October 2015 06: 49 New
    0
    Erdogan - the likeness of Merkel, does not know who to surrender to her today ...
  9. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 29 October 2015 08: 03 New
    +4
    Thank you for the article. Satanovsky is my long-standing sympathy, and, as always, is laconic, logical, and merciless in conclusions. Erdogan is seriously risking his political future.
  10. Riv
    Riv 29 October 2015 08: 05 New
    -3
    The author is naive. Turkey is one of the main sponsors of ISIS. Turkey buys oil from them. In Turkey, wounded militants are being treated. The blow to the Kurds saved Raqqa, this is mentioned in the article.
    Well, what else is needed to stop considering Erdogan white and fluffy?
    1. Algetxnumx
      Algetxnumx 29 October 2015 10: 20 New
      +3
      Quote: Riv
      The author is naive

      Minus from me, before you say something or, in this case, write, you need to strain your brain at least a little bit or, what is in its place, you need to be more modest, so to call a person who at the moment is one of the most competent "specialists" on BV and not only. Respect article, as always, everything is clear, accurate and to the point.
      1. Riv
        Riv 29 October 2015 12: 59 New
        0
        That is, the rest of the iksperdy are even more naive ??? However, I have always said that "political scientist" and "parasite" are synonyms.
    2. Your friend
      Your friend 29 October 2015 13: 08 New
      0
      Quote: Riv
      Turkey, by contrast, along with Qatar and Saudi Arabia is one of the main customers and organizers of the Syrian civil war. The main financial and logistical support for the terrorists, including the Islamic State (IS), is through Turkey. It is the main transit route for jihadists arriving in Syria and Iraq from around the world.

      If Che, from the article:
      "Turkey, on the contrary, along with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, is one of the main customers and organizers of the Syrian civil war. The main financial and logistical support for terrorists, including the Islamic State (IS), is received through Turkey. It is also the main transit route for jihadists. arriving in Syria and Iraq from all over the world. "
      1. Riv
        Riv 29 October 2015 17: 33 New
        0
        If cho, at the very beginning: "The unprecedented development of Russian-Turkish relations is connected precisely with the period when the Justice and Development Party (AKP) headed by Erdogan was in power."
        This was the point.
        And Turkey ... The state itself will not sponsor anything or anyone. "The club hit the author in the head" - is it clear what's the matter?
  11. RusDV
    RusDV 29 October 2015 08: 08 New
    +4
    Satanovsky E., as always, respect. Special, he is in the Middle East, special, and not only in Africa .....)) Erdogan goes all-in without any trump cards up his sleeve .... and lose not for long .....
    1. RU-Officer
      RU-Officer 29 October 2015 09: 19 New
      +2
      Erdogan goes all-in without any trump cards up his sleeve .... and lose is not long .....

      And this, dear "RusDV", is the common historical fate of all "smart-ass" figures. repeat
      In modern geopolitical games one "brazen muzzle" will not be enough, in this club "respected" players for geopolitical cheating are immediately stocked up with a candelabrum, because here it is allowed to shove "impudently" only by agreement, for the sake of thrill. And Turkey seems to have no carte blanche and bluff will not work this time - IMHO hi
  12. ARES623
    ARES623 29 October 2015 08: 49 New
    +2
    Evgeny Yanovich, of course, is an authoritative expert, but even he began to contradict himself.
    He began that "roughness in Turkish-Russian relations does not play a significant role for bilateral relations. Even the crisis in Syria, having aggravated the rhetoric of the Turkish leadership towards Moscow after the appearance of the Russian Aerospace Forces, did not lead to their cooling in practice," that "investors have already heard the signal, as well as the fact that instead of building four branches of the Turkish Stream, we are talking about one." For me, the Turks are even more dangerous partners than Ukraine. Not to build a multibillion-dollar gas pipeline, but even visa-free travel across the border is already fraught with significant risks. Turkey has never been an ally of Russia, and now it is dangerous without a real leash, perhaps even of the PKK type.
    1. Asadullah
      Asadullah 29 October 2015 12: 53 New
      0
      and ended by saying that "investors have already heard the signal, as well as the fact that instead of building four branches of the Turkish Stream, we are talking about one." For me, the Turks are even more dangerous partners,


      I do not see any contradictions, it is precisely on the contradictions, the author draws attention. Erdogan plays on contradictions by contradictions. And the rhetoric of the Turkish administration just reflects this. Naturally, everyone who felt a desire to participate in energy projects decided to wait, seeing the confusion and nervousness of Erdogan’s policy. Let the elections be held, and there it will be seen how reliable Turkey is.

      And the fact that the Turks are not friends is an undeniable truth. But Russia has no friends.
  13. kos2910
    kos2910 29 October 2015 10: 15 New
    +1
    Good article, thanks. Yeah, a ball ...
  14. veksha50
    veksha50 29 October 2015 10: 27 New
    +3
    "The war in the Kurdish regions of Turkey endangers the functioning of the pipelines from Iran, which carry Azerbaijani and Iranian gas" ...

    Honestly, I would like the problems created in this sector ...

    Let Turkey think about the fact that it is harmful to fight with neighbors, and even more so with part of its population, to put it mildly ...

    And the conversation about the construction of the Turkish stream is empty ... This could result in financial and material losses for Russia in even greater volumes than with the Mistral pelvis ...

    The pressure should be purely economic so far ... After all, trade with us occupies a considerable place in the Turkish economy ...

    As soon as you put pressure on them when the Bosphorus is in their hands ... They use it ...
  15. Bakht
    Bakht 29 October 2015 10: 30 New
    +9
    The article is good, as well as all analytics of Satanovsky. Many nuances that you do not always find in the media.

    But ... We must always remember that Erdogan and Turkey are not the same thing. To paraphrase the classic, we can say that "Erdogans come and go, but the Turkish people remain."

    Erdogan was and will be an Islamist. Moderate. For me, moderate Islamists do not exist in nature. Communicated with some. Erdogan’s entire policy is a departure from Ataturk’s covenants, a departure from a secular state. Unfortunately, in Turkey at some point euphoria arose from the prospect of building Great Turan. The idea is utopian, but it helped Erdogan to come to power and carry out a sweep of the army.

    He will leave. Or they will leave him. Never mind. But he had already spoiled. He unbalanced the entire Turkish society and created huge problems.

    Conclusions:
    1. The time has come to review energy projects with Turkey. Fortunately, they have not yet been signed by the Russian Federation, and it makes no sense for Azerbaijan to increase supplies. By the way, there’s nothing much to build up.
    2. It is time to review the visa policy with Turkey. Incidentally, this primarily concerns Azerbaijan. Although they are brothers, I don’t want to turn my house into a passage yard because of my brother.
    1. Your friend
      Your friend 29 October 2015 13: 10 New
      0
      Quote: Bakht

      2. It is time to review the visa policy with Turkey. Incidentally, this primarily concerns Azerbaijan. Although they are brothers, I don’t want to turn my house into a passage yard because of my brother.

      Between Azerbaijan and Turkey visa access?
      1. Bakht
        Bakht 29 October 2015 13: 20 New
        +1
        Unfortunately - visa-free. I am writing unfortunately, because a visa-free regime is generally a blessing. But in the current situation, when there is a flow of terrorists through Turkey, this is not a blessing.
        1. Your friend
          Your friend 29 October 2015 13: 30 New
          0
          Quote: Bakht
          Unfortunately - visa-free. I am writing unfortunately, because a visa-free regime is generally a blessing. But in the current situation, when there is a flow of terrorists through Turkey, this is not a blessing.

          Clear. Thanks for the answer.
  16. Vlad5307
    Vlad5307 29 October 2015 13: 31 New
    0
    Quote: Altona
    And with so many serious problems, Erdogan is still trying to play something there ... Yes, he is just a desperate guy, this Erdogan ...

    Yes, he’s just a Turkish h (m) udak, will lead the country to a split and the need to fight with the Kurds all the time, like Israel and Palestine! stop
    1. kartalovkolya
      kartalovkolya 29 October 2015 14: 20 New
      0
      Yes, he will not lead anyone anywhere: from the second half of the 20th century, Turkey has only been doing what it is fighting against the Kurds without any special results, and this was a pre-election attempt to raise its own rating! and split it oh how hard it is!
  17. sanyavolhv
    sanyavolhv 29 October 2015 15: 38 New
    0
    health
    Erdogan is playing a game of Americans. cannot play his game. maybe he wants to play his game but America cannot and Europe will not allow it.
    America can be called an ally of anyone, even the Kurds, even the Taliban, even the Martians. but the igil touched even the Kurds of the lower part. an igil can only be helped. what everyone around is doing.
    Kurds would understand that. and stop fighting with the igil, well, or stop being America’s allies, staying with them in words, find help in Russia.
    Russia does not need tens of millions of potentially hungry, unemployed people anywhere near its borders, however, like everyone else in the district. This army of potential killers and robbers is needed only by the Americans. it is profitable for them to order a competitor frostbitten on his head. all around understand this, but hope not to become a victim of scumbags. the Angians also somehow brought peace, although peace turned out to be a war.
  18. the most important
    the most important 29 October 2015 17: 56 New
    +1
    Evgeny Satanovsky is the best specialist in Russia (and maybe in the world!) In BV. I hope that his opinion is listened to at the very top. I would like to wish him many years of health and successful work. One pity, I do not know him personally ...
  19. chelovektapok
    chelovektapok 29 October 2015 18: 48 New
    +1
    The Turks have been trying to solve the "Kurdish problem" since the time of Sultan Salladin, the conqueror of Jerusalem and the victor of the crusaders. At that time they did not decide, even more so today! Erdogan is not "Suleiman the Magnificent" - an axiom ... Why is there then a navel to strain himself and the Turkish public? We would have already relaxed and given autonomy to the People, who have been defending Themselves for centuries with weapons in their hands. You cannot destroy, nor can you conquer. Kurds are an ethnic group about which the Turks, even in everyday conversations, go into "dumb protection". Kurds are few in the present World who live "in spite of". AND WILL LIVE!
    1. Bakht
      Bakht 29 October 2015 19: 25 New
      +1
      The fact that Saladdin was a Kurd is nothing? And in the 12th century, Ottoman Turkey did not yet exist. But these are trifles, probably .... winked
    2. traveler
      traveler 30 October 2015 01: 29 New
      +2
      saladin was a Kurd. his army consisted mainly of the same Seljuk Turks as his opponents, and earlier leaders - Zangid, who appointed him to rule Egypt.
      where is the Kurdish problem here? By and large, it arose only under the republic.
  20. Anisim1977
    Anisim1977 29 October 2015 20: 32 New
    +2
    Turkey can dream of anything, of course, but it is unlikely that it will work out. We paid attention to the actions of our helicopters out of sight, unlike the pilots. They are simply ironing out a "moderate opposition" from Turkey that dug in border Turkey. Next, the Syrian army comes to the connection with the Kurds, "peace-friendship-chewing gum" and they will be covered either by our air forces or the air defense of Syria, as allies from the Turkish air war.
    The second Erdogan did an interview for internal use - in other words, blah blah blah in the style of a pig. But the Kurds will take it at face value and they will have only one way - together with American weapons to look for allies in us and kindly negotiate with Assad .
    Well, with regards to free oil - it will stop very soon, the fan will be blocked very soon.
  21. individual
    individual 30 October 2015 19: 07 New
    0
    Here they write:
    Turkey is playing its game
    .
    I must add - the game of Turkish tear.
    It was Erdogan who lost his "game" and after the November 1 re-election it will be clear to everyone.