Military Review

2070 year, Persian Gulf

41
The growth of average annual temperatures and the increase in extreme climatic conditions may lead to the Gulf countries becoming unsuitable for life by the beginning of 2070. Such a gloomy forecast was given by American experts. Many large cities and a number of areas will become uninhabitable. A climate catastrophe will occur if the UN member states do not agree at the Paris Climate Conference on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.




The study was conducted by two scientists from the United States: Elfatih Eltahir from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Jeremy Pal from Loyola University, Los Angeles. The results of the study were published in a scientific journal. "Nature Climate Change".

In the introductory part of the article, the authors indicate that the human body is able to adapt to temperature changes according to the so-called. dry thermometer (normal temperature on thermometers) through the release of sweat and cooling associated with the evaporation of moisture, but only under the condition that the temperature is so-called. wet thermometer (more complex, combined temperature and humidity) remains below the threshold value 35 degrees Celsius. The specified threshold defines the “survival limit” of a person, the authors write.

Based on the construction of regional climate models, scientists predict that the temperature on a wet thermometer in the Persian Gulf region is likely to exceed this critical threshold due to excessive concentrations of greenhouse gases.

In fact, the research results indicate a new regional “hot spot” where climate change will occur. And it will seriously affect the habitability of the territories in the future.

When will this happen? Scientists believe that the disappointing forecast may come true by the year of 2070. This year, the growth of average annual temperatures and air humidity along with extreme climatic phenomena will make the states of the Persian Gulf unsuitable for life.

Climatologists point to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. According to them, if humanity continues to emit the same amount of greenhouse gases as it is now, towards the end of the century the countries of the Persian Gulf will “pass” beyond the critical point. Their territories will be unfit for human life. It is not only in gases, but also in humidity. A unique combination of high humidity (bay water) and high temperature takes place in these areas. The Persian Gulf is shallow, and its waters will quickly evaporate under the hot sun. As a result, the humidity will rise to a maximum.

The so-called wet thermometer temperature is made up of a combination of ambient temperature and humidity. Achieving a critical threshold leads to the fact that a living object can not cool itself by evaporation of moisture from the skin. And if such a temperature rises beyond 35 degrees, then a person is waiting for overheating and sunstroke. Probable and death.

The study of Eltahir and his colleagues, Pal, clearly demonstrated that the states of the Persian Gulf would come to a critical point of the "sunstroke" in more than fifty years. Only one thing can help: in December 2015, representatives of the UN member countries will meet at the Paris Climate Conference, where greenhouse gas emissions will be discussed.

If the world powers fail to come to terms with the UN, many of the Persian Gulf territories will eventually become uninhabitable. Among those scientists call the major cities (Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and others). In these areas, the temperature of the wet thermometer will exceed 35 degrees Celsius.

Other local areas are already experiencing the difficulties of a “wet thermometer”. In the middle of summer, in July, daytime temperatures in some cities of Iran and Iraq rose above 48 and even 50 degrees. At night, it was 30 degrees, which is dangerously close to the life-threatening mark in 34,6 degrees Celsius "wet thermometer."

How can helping people reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Very simple: if emissions can be reduced, the growth of global temperatures will be able to be sustained by mankind, and the temperature level in the countries of the Persian Gulf will remain about the same as today.

After half a century, another event can also occur, also related to climate, we add from ourselves. By this time, Alaska can free itself from permafrost.

Melting frozen soils will aggravate global warming, radio said "Satellite" chief editor of the Russian journal "Ecology and Life" Alexander Samsonov.

Methane, which will be released by thawing frozen soils, will aggravate global warming, said Alexander Samsonov. “Alaska and the entire permafrost zone (and more in Russia than in North America) are in a state where a slight increase in temperature can cause a self-sustaining process that is difficult to stop,” the expert said. - Therefore, there is something to fear. In permafrost areas there are deposits of methane hydrates. Methane - a greenhouse gas, it leads to the greenhouse effect. In this sense, it is more efficient than carbon dioxide. Found back in the 60-ies of the last century, deposits of methane hydrates may begin to be released. Permafrost is a very powerful stock of primarily pure ice. Melting ice causes self-consistent warming, it is local, but then global will occur. ”

The liberation of Alaska from permafrost, according to the expert, will be a global catastrophe: “If Alaska becomes free from permafrost, then this can be considered a synonym for global catastrophe. Because such amount of ice, turning into water, will cause an overflow of the seas and oceans in the same way as the melting of the ice cap of Greenland, and this is already calculated - the sea level will rise by two meters, that is, all coastal cities will be flooded, it will be a cataclysm. ” According to the scientist, the northern taiga, located south of the Arctic Circle, will also disappear.

According to Samsonov, one should not allow the exit from the control of global warming. Therefore, relevant issues will be discussed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.

Thus, we note in conclusion that the future of mankind depends on the outcome of the December meeting in Paris. And first of all - the countries of the Persian Gulf.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
41 comment
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  1. Waltasar
    Waltasar 29 October 2015 06: 25 New
    +36
    Learn tomorrow to predict the weather first ...
    It’s easy to make predictions for 50 years in advance. Come true, well done. It didn’t come true, it was because a variety of factors changed and we prevented (exacerbated) everything.
    1. Renat
      Renat 29 October 2015 07: 32 New
      +8
      Just like our national projects like "Health", etc. Today money has been laundered, and after 20 years, who will remember this?
      1. Enot-poloskun
        Enot-poloskun 29 October 2015 22: 10 New
        +1
        There will be a global cooling.

        And the bears from Russia on ice will come to Washington. On the ice of the Atlantic)))
    2. The Chat
      The Chat 29 October 2015 13: 18 New
      +6
      Again, after 50 years, "either the shah will die, or the donkey will die."
      If the prediction does not come true then everything will be forgotten. And if it comes true, then the authors will shout the loudest: "Ah yes we, well done !!!"
    3. Wasiliy1985
      Wasiliy1985 29 October 2015 17: 22 New
      0
      I fully support !!!
  2. oldav
    oldav 29 October 2015 06: 33 New
    +11
    So here it is! Americans care about local population by cutting it. So that all the water in the future is enough ..
  3. bulat
    bulat 29 October 2015 06: 37 New
    +14
    The greenhouse effect is such nonsense. In my opinion, money laundering.
    1. Private IITR
      Private IITR 29 October 2015 07: 01 New
      +5
      100% laundering, you're right
      1. lwxx
        lwxx 29 October 2015 07: 45 New
        +11
        +100500 A single volcanic eruption introduces more pollution into the atmosphere than all cars on the planet per year. Divorce of pure water, as well as the mandatory use of 3 liters of water per day. wassat
    2. viktorrymar
      viktorrymar 29 October 2015 08: 01 New
      +5
      The greenhouse effect is such nonsense. In my opinion, money laundering.


      I agree with you completely.

      One eruption of a volcano emits carbon dioxide more than all of humanity has been producing it in 100 of recent years.
  4. parusnik
    parusnik 29 October 2015 06: 38 New
    +4
    The World has so many problems that need to be addressed together .., and it’s mired in wars, in fueling conflicts .. And all thanks to one country in the USA ..
    1. voyaka uh
      voyaka uh 29 October 2015 09: 53 New
      -5
      Until the end of World War II, the United States was not a factor in world politics.
      And that there were no wars? All nations lived together?
      1. fzr1000
        fzr1000 29 October 2015 11: 19 New
        +2
        Already at the end of the 1st were, as the richest state.
      2. alecsis69
        alecsis69 1 November 2015 13: 47 New
        0
        The factor was the British, the scenery changed.
  5. PlotnikoffDD
    PlotnikoffDD 29 October 2015 06: 40 New
    +2
    Another "all gone"! the plaster is removed, the client leaves!
  6. D-Master
    D-Master 29 October 2015 06: 52 New
    +12
    Cheap oil and gas provoke an increase in car sales in the world, and a diesel scandal leads to an increase in sales of gasoline engines producing more CO2 than diesel. So everything is fine. We are moving ahead of the pace.
    Only nature has a protective mechanism - a global oceanic thermal conveyor in the form of warm and cold currents. As the ice melts, the salinity of the water decreases and the conveyor rises. And Europe is covered by the ice age. So it’s more likely to freeze than to dry.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 29 October 2015 09: 47 New
      +2
      You just need to deal with the problem of desertification of lands, and in 2070, most of the cars will go by electric traction and fuel cells.
    2. The Chat
      The Chat 29 October 2015 13: 21 New
      0
      This Europe covers the ice age, and talk about the Persian Gulf.
      In the garden - elderberry, and in Kiev - uncle.
    3. washi
      washi 29 October 2015 13: 32 New
      +1
      Quote: D-Master
      Cheap oil and gas provoke an increase in car sales in the world, and a diesel scandal leads to an increase in sales of gasoline engines producing more CO2 than diesel. So everything is fine. We are moving ahead of the pace.
      Only nature has a protective mechanism - a global oceanic thermal conveyor in the form of warm and cold currents. As the ice melts, the salinity of the water decreases and the conveyor rises. And Europe is covered by the ice age. So it’s more likely to freeze than to dry.

      I agree with both hands. If somewhere decreases, then somewhere arrives. In Western Siberia, cooling in recent years.
  7. Mercury
    Mercury 29 October 2015 06: 54 New
    +2
    Yes, this is not completely lost. And again, Russia has many rivers and Asians rush to us and the Himalayas.
  8. sledge
    sledge 29 October 2015 07: 16 New
    +10
    After the intervention of the UkrSA in the affairs of the Gulf countries, this territory will become unsuitable for life much earlier ...... sad
  9. Roust
    Roust 29 October 2015 07: 30 New
    +4
    After 50 years, or donkey will die or padish, gentlemen, fortune tellers.
  10. Russian Uzbek
    Russian Uzbek 29 October 2015 07: 40 New
    +6
    theme for nonsense-tv ...
    "" An increase in average annual temperatures and an increase in extreme climatic temperatures may lead to the fact that the Gulf countries will be unsuitable for life by the beginning of 2070. ""
    it has already been proven 1001 times that “global warming” is a myth; rather, a new ice age awaits us by 2070
  11. Kyrgyz
    Kyrgyz 29 October 2015 07: 52 New
    +4
    It seems that there is a very extensive version that the processes of global climate change are cyclical and if they depend very little on anthropology, the same emission of gas and magma from one volcano is approximately equal to the annual operation of the entire vehicle fleet of the middle state, if BV will become a “Sugar” of which for the most part is already there, so this fate will be resettled, different states only have to calculate for themselves the risks associated with this, develop methods for “re-mixing” of visitors to a digestible cultural form, or to prevent them rezmernogo presence or prepare for mass slaughter that can also be a solution to the problem in the extreme case.
  12. oldav
    oldav 29 October 2015 08: 28 New
    +1
    I live in Novosibirsk for many years. And to be honest; such warm winters as the last 2-3 have never been here. In the last so -30 at all never passed. Every summer is sultry and hot, with virtually no rain. Rejoice or cry, I do not know.
    1. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 29 October 2015 08: 36 New
      +4
      Quote: oldav
      I live in Novosibirsk for many years. And to be honest; such warm winters as the last 2-3 have never been here. In the last so -30 at all never passed. Every summer is sultry and hot, with virtually no rain. Rejoice or cry, I do not know.

      Of course, if you spend the winter in Tae))))) the last winter without mastering the course I stayed at home, and -30 stood for at least a week, I had a car with air suspension so I worried without a garage and watched the thermometer scratching my wallet regularly))))
  13. Zomanus
    Zomanus 29 October 2015 08: 36 New
    +3
    And what have we got with the Gulf Stream, have not resolved yet?
    And then I can’t wait until Europe starts to freeze ...
    Bullshit sucks.
  14. igordok
    igordok 29 October 2015 08: 52 New
    +4
    Everything is back to square one. The ice age is ending. When the jungle grows again on Antarctica, the Earth will return to its normal temperature. Mankind is used to thinking that the moment in which it exists is something unshakable. And hangs noodles, which can change the weather, i.e. temperature (radiation) of the Sun. A lot of carbon dioxide, this is a consequence, and not the reason for heating the Earth, this is a side effect of heating the atmosphere with the Sun. From the school course it is known that the solubility of gases in water decreases with increasing temperature. what
  15. Balagan
    Balagan 29 October 2015 08: 57 New
    +8
    Recently, a climatologist spoke on some channel, showing climate fluctuations as a result of drilling a well at Vostok station in Antarctica. The bottom line is that now we are at the peak of temporary warming. The peak itself has already passed and again we are starting to slowly cool down. I do not remember the frequency now. But what’s the point, all these futurologists, threatening climatic troubles, have already pulled up. The earth as lived in its cycles, and lives. And if we, from our 80-120 years of life there, cannot cover the cycle several times larger than our life, this does not mean that we themselves are to blame for any climate changes and we are frantic, it’s time to crawl to the cemetery and doze there peacefully until the end of our days of their own. Humanity is affecting the planet, but not yet so disastrous. So far I am sure of this.
  16. Kelwin
    Kelwin 29 October 2015 09: 38 New
    +6
    I went in, from the nefig to do, look at the site of the journal "Ecology and Life". An interesting composition of the editorial board, out of these 23 members, six all kinds of Germans and Spaniards, doctors of law, international affairs and other figures from the EU, the list is here http://www.ecolife.ru/zhurnal/redkollegija-i-redaktsionnyjj-sovet/ # 1 It remains to find out what kind of money the magazine exists and, it is possible that the opinion of Comrade. Samsonova will turn from an “expert” to a Europuk.
  17. Grim Reaper
    Grim Reaper 29 October 2015 10: 01 New
    +2
    We are waiting for the article "we will all freeze." Well, in a circle: an asteroid, a volcano, a flood, what else was there ??? ☺
  18. ma_shlomha
    ma_shlomha 29 October 2015 10: 29 New
    +1
    RAS observatories do not exclude the possibility of an asteroid colliding with the Earth in 2035. Collision with a celestial body with a diameter of more than a kilometer will lead to a continental disaster, which will cause serious climate change. If an asteroid falls into the ocean and causes a big wave, then the disaster can become global.
    So perhaps by 2070 the problem of life in the Gulf countries will disappear by itself.
  19. AID.S
    AID.S 29 October 2015 11: 03 New
    +4
    "2070, the Persian Gulf"
    The correct forecast was given by Nekrasov.
    "It’s a pity to just live in this wonderful time,
    I don’t have to, neither to me nor to you "
  20. andrew42
    andrew42 29 October 2015 11: 13 New
    +2
    This is something like "..Earth will fall on the celestial axis" from "Dog Heart".
  21. Dejavu
    Dejavu 29 October 2015 11: 23 New
    +3
    Here in me now two thoughts are fighting among themselves. On the one hand, almost all pi ... dosov will be washed off the face of the earth, and on the other, the remaining ones will flee to Russia to rescue us. Yes, let’s try to prevent global warming, comrade.
  22. pts-m
    pts-m 29 October 2015 14: 20 New
    +1
    as they say ... whatever the child entertains, if only he cries ... otherwise they will forget who does what.
  23. KCA
    KCA 29 October 2015 15: 44 New
    +1
    I wonder why the United States, which does not comply with the Kyoto Protocol to limit greenhouse gas emissions, drives the greenhouse effect most of all.
  24. Megatron
    Megatron 29 October 2015 15: 54 New
    +2
    Why are such stupid articles published on the site?
    Even if you already, let the Saudis die.
  25. cumastra1
    cumastra1 29 October 2015 16: 14 New
    +2
    Another "Water World" and "Mad Max." Probably soon another movie will be shot about the end. The end of the world of course.
  26. Mama_Cholli
    Mama_Cholli 29 October 2015 17: 19 New
    +1
    The US is the largest "supplier" of greenhouse emissions.
    They should be taken care first of all, and not the rest of the world.
    In addition, there are different theories, both of global warming and of the global ice age, and in these theories the role of humanity is insignificant in front of other factors.
    Although, if you cut down all the forests and pour more oil into the sea, then you can make a more significant contribution to the climate reconstruction of the world .... And if you provoke the 3rd world war using I / O, then even the creator will be surprised at the redevelopment ....
  27. partizan86
    partizan86 29 October 2015 19: 12 New
    0
    Prior to the construction of GRES-1 and GRES-2, the local air was favorable for patients with asthma, but now it is the other way around, although automobile emissions are probably a big part in this. But these are not even coal stations, supposedly only nuclear plants are safer, provided that they work stably.
    Everything can be.
  28. lexx2038
    lexx2038 29 October 2015 19: 59 New
    +1
    Why worry then? Until the age of 70, there is a chance to spread mother earth to the state of the asteroid belt, and you think it will get colder or warmer, or flood. It’s getting colder - we’ll grow wool, it’ll flood - fins with gills, it’s just bad to poke buttons on the clave, it’s not convenient for the fins.