Military Review

Gumer Isaev: The once “progressive” regimes collapsed, Arab nationalism died ...

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Gumer Isaev: The once “progressive” regimes collapsed, Arab nationalism died ...



The Middle East is experiencing hard times, conflicts, contradictions and terrorism are tearing apart the region. It is already clear to everyone that there will be no former Middle East, with questions what is actually happening and what can be? We turned to the head of the St. Petersburg Center for the Study of the Modern Middle East Gumer Isayev.

At the moment, there is an almost total reformatting of the entire Middle East, the old system is collapsing, the new one is not yet completely clear, what do you think is waiting for the region? What are the prospects for the current process?

What is happening in the Middle East in recent years is not only a process of changing one regime by another. We are witnessing the collapse of the system, the foundations of which were laid in the early twentieth century. The once “progressive” regimes collapsed, Arab nationalism died, and the phenomenon of a sovereign Arab national state itself, apparently, may soon become the property stories. Such countries as Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen are defragmented and there are doubts that they can be saved de facto as united and centralized states.

The expected and forecasted by the liberals new wave of democratization of the region during the “Arab spring” turned into chaos, from which we can expect the coming of new dictatorships. In my opinion, destabilization in the region will last for a long time and may affect those countries that seemed to avoid the negative effects of the “Arab Spring”.

There is an opinion that, the notorious ISIS, is nothing more than a tool of the United States in the region, for carrying out your own policy, the essence of which is to throw the region into chaos, do you agree with this point of view?

ISIS resulted from chaos, as a result of the collapse of the national states of Iraq and Syria. The United States played a role in the destruction of Iraq’s statehood, where, after the redistribution of power in a country with a Shiite majority, the Sunnis lost their former position in society.

Thus, ISIS has become a kind of Sunni revenge, dressed in a radical and extremist form. We see the example of the civil war in Syria, as the superpowers tend to use different groups in their own interests - and ISIL is not an exception. For a long time, ISIS was spun up and promoted in the global media and, in my opinion, this was not done by chance. Today, the “threat of ISIS to the whole world” is used as a basis for intervention in the Syrian crisis. Officially, all countries involved in the Syrian conflict declare a special mission in the fight against LIH, but in reality each player acts in his own interests - hence the tension between those states that seem to have come together in the fight against the common threat.

As you know, in the near future in one of the main countries of the Middle East to hold parliamentary elections, which should play an important role in the political life of the country. This, of course, is about Turkey. Given the difficult situation in the country and around it, what do you think will give these elections to Turkey and what will be the result?

A curious situation - the Turkish authorities have forbidden to make predictions about the results of the elections that will take place on November 1. Apparently, the winners of the previous elections fear the results, having in their hands the data of social surveys. The elections to the Turkish parliament are unscheduled and, if I may say, crisis: the June elections did not give the Justice and Development Party a majority to form a cabinet of ministers. During the summer, the parties that passed the parliament could not find a compromise solution and preferred re-election of the coalition.

New elections will be held amid the refugee crisis, the acute conflict with the Kurds, the fall of the Turkish lira, a series of terrorist attacks, including resonant bombings in Ankara - and today it is difficult to predict how all this will affect the voting figures. If the results are not significantly different from the June ones, the parties that have passed to the parliament will still have to find a compromise solution and create a coalition.
Originator:
http://thegreatmiddleeast.com/crashed-once-progressive-regimes/
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  1. sisa29
    sisa29 28 October 2015 05: 54 New
    +12
    Strange article. Who interviewed this gentleman? Judging by the text of We. And who are we? Some torn part of the dialogue is not very clear who stuck here. And the reasoning of this gentleman does not bring anything new.
    1. Max_Bauder
      Max_Bauder 28 October 2015 11: 11 New
      +5
      Absolutely crazy article.

      what is it worth

      Before our eyes, a system is collapsing, the foundations of which were laid at the beginning of the twentieth century. The once-progressive regimes crashed, Arab nationalism died


      Just this system was created from the 20th century, when after the First World War, the British and French destroyed the Ottoman Empire and created the Wahhabi state of Saudi Arabia and also Israel. It all started with this!
      And before that 5 centuries, 5 CENTURIES, CARL! Arabs, Christians, Jews, Yezidis, Kurds, and other tribes and sects lived side by side with each other, and there was not so much war, blood, there was no destruction of cities and temples. Under a large Turkish boot, everyone quietly got along.

      And the Arab community was never a progressive state, the Saudis were savages, and they remained so, the centers of the dawn of the caliphate were first Baghdad Iraqi, more Persian, say, and Damascus Syrian.

      Just after the arrival of the British and French, the national identity of the Ajans of the Hijaz and Najj arose, when they were promised huge sums of money for oil, yesterday's poor Bedouins lit up their eyes, they sold the Palestinians under Israeli slippers. The bastard Lawrence of Arabia put his hand to such an agreement. In short, as it’s not difficult to notice everything since the 20th century, all the wars in the Middle East began to occur due to and not without the participation of Israel, which decided to expand its territory and the traitor of all Saudi Muslims pitting Arabs against each other. Everything from them.
      1. avt
        avt 28 October 2015 11: 22 New
        +1
        Quote: Max_Bauder
        Absolutely crazy article.

        The author is at least a cueaker on a counter catching up with publications. What is it worth alone -
        Thus, ISIS became a kind of Sunni revenge,
        wassat That is, even to look at what kind of universities "the same Al Baghdadi in the American prison, and actually other Guantanamo graduates for the" Arab spring ", is he either not leisure, or how he dreams of Jamal, passionate Arab boys" Well, actually what to discuss further this co-hockey then? So already I wrote a lot about this dummy. negative
      2. varov14
        varov14 28 October 2015 12: 43 New
        0
        ISIS is an antimoral morality of the West, from this point of view, who is not with us is against us. If America created this ISIS, it does not mean at all that it will follow in the wake of America. On the contrary, this morality assumes take while they give, and then hit first “Freddy”. And this morality as anti is quite justified, in fact it is an adequate response to the double standards of the West, and therefore, followers around the world. As they say, get back with greetings.
    2. kepmor
      kepmor 28 October 2015 12: 24 New
      0
      But at the same time, this gentleman receives a "healthy" salary from the budget, like thousands of the same "ANALitiks" and "EXperts" from dozens of institutes, centers, funds and other crap!
      Mediocrity and loafers ... But Siluanov and Nabiullina always do not have enough money for social programs!
  2. V.ic
    V.ic 28 October 2015 06: 55 New
    +5
    Nothing new is said in the article.
  3. sa-ag
    sa-ag 28 October 2015 07: 24 New
    +10
    "... countries like Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen are defragmented"

    In general, defragmentation is the process of gathering from parts of a single whole
    1. manguest
      manguest 28 October 2015 09: 24 New
      +2
      Yes, a strange statement, these countries are just fragmented.
    2. Vladimir 1964
      Vladimir 1964 28 October 2015 10: 12 New
      +1
      Quote: sa-ag
      In general, defragmentation is the process of gathering from parts of a single whole


      Very accurate shot, Dear sa-ag. good hi
    3. WKS
      WKS 28 October 2015 10: 26 New
      +5
      Another "wise man" with a poor education, specializing in political science.
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 28 October 2015 11: 08 New
        0
        Quote: wks
        Another "wise man" with a poor education, specializing in political science.


        Dear namesake, one-piece

        Head of the St. Petersburg Center for the Study of the Modern Middle East Gumer Isaev.


        This is not twenty rubles for you. laughing
        1. Amurets
          Amurets 28 October 2015 13: 19 New
          0
          But in principle, the article is superficial. Or not a desire to do an analysis of the situation, or just an unsubscribe.
  4. Wise Kaa
    Wise Kaa 28 October 2015 07: 49 New
    +4
    Most importantly, Russia by its actions in Syria turns Turkey off as a key player in the region. And after Syria, Russia can calmly deal with puppets in Kiev.
    1. manguest
      manguest 28 October 2015 09: 31 New
      +3
      At least Turkey. It can be assumed that the presence of a secular conditionally pro-Russian regime in part of present-day Syria makes it very risky to invest in ANY project that is not coordinated with Russia throughout the territory of the BV. And you don’t have to do anything specifically for this, just keep the base in Latakia with 1 (one) air regiment. In such a situation, the issues of limitrophs will be of interest not only to everyone, but very few people in general.
  5. ArcanAG
    ArcanAG 28 October 2015 08: 11 New
    +6
    Those. the author says that no one is behind the destruction of nation-states. They supposedly broke up themselves and it all by itself happens.
    Libya seems to have been bombed recently. Who defeated the national state there is well known. In Syria, the war is on right now. Who strongly supports the Islamists is also no secret. Who created al-Qaeda and ISIS is also well known. The effectiveness of the struggle of the Western coalition with ISIS is quite indicative.
    The question is - why does the author pass off the actions of the West as a whole and the United States in the first place on the destruction of nation states in the Middle East as a natural process?
  6. Turkir
    Turkir 28 October 2015 09: 15 New
    0
    ..died Arab nationalism ...

    I searched in vain in this interview for at least half a word about the death of Arab nationalism or the collapse of "progressive" regimes.
    ----------
    Gumer Isaev
    Candidate of Historical Sciences, Director of the Institute for Russian Studies (Istanbul), Head of the St. Petersburg Center for the Study of the Modern Middle East
  7. manguest
    manguest 28 October 2015 09: 37 New
    +3
    The author is unclear, the cookie is for rent.
    1. Turkir
      Turkir 28 October 2015 10: 24 New
      +1
      The author is unclear, the cookie is for rent.

      When you enter the site of this center meast.ru - the answer is 404.
      M-yes.
  8. NordUral
    NordUral 28 October 2015 09: 58 New
    0
    ISIS resulted from chaos, as a result of the collapse of the national states of Iraq and Syria. The United States played a role in the destruction of Iraq’s statehood, where, after the redistribution of power in a country with a Shiite majority, the Sunnis lost their former position in society.
    The states did not play a role, but destroyed Iraq, Libya, trying to do this in Syria and with Iran.
  9. The Chat
    The Chat 28 October 2015 10: 16 New
    +3
    Gumer Isaev
    Candidate of Historical Sciences, Director of the Institute for Russian Studies (Istanbul), Head of the St. Petersburg Center for the Study of the Modern Middle East


    The level of analysis of facts as a student.

    As in a joke:
    "Probably bought a degree and director’s position?
    Why bought !!!
    Gave !!! "
  10. raid14
    raid14 28 October 2015 10: 20 New
    +1
    A set of words no more. Prior to Western military intervention, "progressive Arab regimes" such as Iraq and Libya did not exist badly. All the so-called democratic "Arab revolutions" are a simple elimination of threats to the dollar as a world currency and because of oil. In Libya, Gaddafi was removed for trying to introduce a golden dinar into circulation, Saddam for the occupation of Kuwait. IG spawned the United States in conjunction with the Saudis and Sunni monarchs of the Persian Gulf to fight Shiites.