Military Review

Turkey plus Iran plus Russia?

34
October 20 it became known: Ankara is ready to support the plan for the transfer of power in Syria. According to this plan, President Bashar Asad remains in office for another six months. This is nothing more than a symbolic gesture, and yet it looks very unusual for Turkey, whose leader not so long ago called Assad a "butcher" and a "murderer." Upon learning of this turnaround, the experts started talking about a possible new vector of the regional policy of Turkey.




Turkey’s readiness to support the plan for the transfer of power in Syria, according to which Bashar Asad will symbolically remain at his post for six months, Reuters reported, citing senior officials in the Turkish government. According to one of the sources that leads "Lenta.ru", work is now underway on a plan, according to which the Syrian President should leave power.

The deadline for counting six months has not yet been determined. One of the sources reported on the discussion of the issue with the United States: “We were able to advance to a certain extent in the discussion of this issue with the United States and other allies. So far, we do not know exactly when this period will begin in six months, but we think that this will happen rather soon. ”

Head of the Arab Service News agencies "Trend" Rufiz Hafizoglu (Rufiz Hafizoglu) recalls the Ankara terrorist attack on October 10, which is considered the bloodiest terrorist attack in stories Modern Turkey: 96 people killed and more 240 injured.

The organization that arranged the attack is not currently known exactly. According to preliminary data, this is the “Islamic State”.

As a result of the terrorist attack, not only people died. The image of the Justice and Development Party has faded. But on the nose - parliamentary elections in Turkey.

Because of the terrorist attack, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan canceled a visit to Turkmenistan, where he planned to discuss the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline.

Earlier, President Erdogan said, the analyst reminds that, if necessary, Turkey can buy gas not only from Russia. After that, Iran made a statement. From there it was reported that Tehran could increase the supply of natural gas to Turkey. After the terrorist attack in Ankara, Iran made another statement. According to representatives of Tehran, this terrorist act is an episode of terrorist activity, and therefore Iran hopes that Ankara will reconsider its policy in the region.

As Rufiz Hafizoglu believes, this is nothing but a signal to Ankara about the need to change its policy towards Syria.

According to the journalist, the change of Turkey’s policy regarding Syria is a matter of time. The author also recalls that after his visit to Moscow, President Erdogan made a sensational statement: he said that a temporary government headed by President Assad could be formed in Syria.

Rufiz Hafizoglu does not think that before the elections in Ankara, the Justice and Development Party will change its policy towards Syria. However, it is possible that this may happen after the parliamentary elections - if only the Justice and Development Party wins them. (Recall, the elections in Turkey will be held on November 1.)

On closer examination of recent terrorist acts in Turkey, the expert believes, one can see in them the Syrian factor - “in almost all cases”.

This gives grounds to assert that sooner or later Ankara “will have to join the Russian-Iranian coalition,” even if such a move contradicts Turkish interests in Syria, Hafizoglu concludes.

“In fact,” he writes, “only a possible alliance between Turkey, Iran and Russia can finally destroy the growing threat of terrorism in the region.”

And here are the arguments of the analyst.

Iran has close ties with the authorities of Syria and Iraq. Tehran did not forget the support of Ankara at the time when the EU countries imposed sanctions against the supply of Iranian oil and gas. Turkey supports Iran in foreign trade. In addition, she made efforts during the negotiations between Iran and the "six".

The participation of the Sunni Muslims of Turkey in the hostilities against the "IS" together with Iran and Russia will break the stereotypes concerning the supposedly existing confrontation between Shiites and Sunnis in Syria and Iraq.

Finally, Turkey’s participation in a coalition with Iran and Russia against the IG may limit Western influence in the region. And this is really in the interests of Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, the expert believes.

“Taking into account common interests among the parties, one can say,” the analyst summarizes, “that the union of Turkey, Iran and Russia against the background of events in the region and the growing threat of terrorism and radicalism is inevitable.”

* * *


It appears that Erdogan agrees to the “Six Months” plan not at all because he wants to create a “union of Turkey, Iran and Russia”. No wonder there is a "discussion" of the plan with the United States. Recently, under pressure from the actions of Russia in Syria, Washington with a sigh approved a temporary stay in office of B. Assad, and now Turkey can only follow the position of the "world hegemon." Therefore, the term of Assad’s power will not be determined by Ankara, but Washington.

As for the attitude of representatives of Syria towards Erdogan, it is difficult to call him calm.

Recently, the Ambassador of the Syrian Arab Republic in Russia, Riyad Haddad, criticized the position of the Turkish President regarding the situation with Syrian refugees and even called the Turkish leader a "psycho."

“Erdogan has big political blunders. He became the enemy of all countries in the region, he has painful ambitions for the revival of the Ottoman Empire. In general, I think that he is crazy and feels like a sultan, ”comrade Haddad said in an interview Gazeta.ru.

In addition, the Justice and Development Party, with its “tarnished” image, has little chance of winning an unconditional victory. The “Sultan” from Erdogan also did not work out: the old constitution in Turkey is still in force. There are apparently no prospects for the creation of a super-presidential republic in the country.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
34 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Armored optimist
    Armored optimist 22 October 2015 06: 38 New
    17
    Erdogan is trying to sit on two chairs. Both ours and yours, as they say. And under the guise and with the Kurds to deal with.
    1. Shiva83483
      Shiva83483 22 October 2015 06: 53 New
      11
      As though of this multi-worker, the gap between half-asses did not increase, to unacceptable sizes, in a decent society not voiced ... to all the lieutenants to be silent, the key phrase is DECENT SOCIETY ...
      1. Tatyana
        Tatyana 22 October 2015 08: 21 New
        +8
        Quote from the article
        “Erdogan has big political miscalculations. He became the enemy of all the countries of the region, he has painful ambitions for the revival of the Ottoman Empire. I generally think that he (Erdogan) is crazy and feels like a sultan ”- said the ambassador of the Syrian Arab Republic to Russia Riyad Haddad.

        That's really the correct political characteristic for Erdogan - "PSYH, who feels himself a SULTAN" - this is already an accurate medical diagnosis - you don’t even need to call doctors!
        1. avt
          avt 22 October 2015 09: 33 New
          +4
          Quote: Tatiana
          That's really the correct political characteristic for Erdogan - "PSYH, who feels himself a SULTAN" - this is already an accurate medical diagnosis - you don’t even need to call doctors!

          no You are mistaken and very strong! It works in the spirit of the Turkish proverb - “If you can’t cut off your hand - kiss her.” He doesn’t understand that if you continue to shove the drill, the USA will light Turkey like Suria. And it’s not such a fantasy. Who could imagine the year two years ago, that the IRGC would be deployed on the border with Turkey, and its commander would go to Damascus as a summer cottage ??? Now it’s not childish to give weapons to the PKK and the Turks - Marxists! Erdogan cannot understand this, all the more so, , democratic spring, "he was already shown by Jamaat Gulen in a park of Istanbul / Constantinople not childishly, but add one and a half, two million refugees squeezed out of militants from Suria .... he will blow at times - just bring a match.
          1. Tatyana
            Tatyana 22 October 2015 10: 27 New
            +2
            avt (2)
            Quote: Tatiana
            That's really the correct political characteristic for Erdogan - "PSYH, who feels himself a SULTAN" - this is already an accurate medical diagnosis - you don’t even need to call doctors!
            You are mistaken and very strong!

            Nothing like this!
            It wasn’t figs for Erdogan to revive in his dreams some Ottoman Empire there!
            I also found a second Hitler! What Erdogan did not know how it would end for the Turks and the country with its nationalist policies? And this is only the beginning of the defeat and ruin of his country!
            The paranoid ambitions of political leaders by psychiatrists must be checked and treated in a timely manner! For always in history, in the final analysis, such ambitions somehow end in complete fiasco!
            1. avt
              avt 22 October 2015 10: 34 New
              +3
              Quote: Tatiana
              It wasn’t figs to revive Erdogan in his dreams some Ottoman Empire there!

              Firstly, he revived it not in dreams, but quite in practice, and up to the moment when he climbed into Suria quite successfully.
              Quote: Tatiana
              What Erdogan did not know how it would end for the Turks and this country with politics?

              Secondly, no one - with what fright did you decide that he was preparing a disaster? Everything went quite smoothly for him, again until the time of the first see.
              Quote: Tatiana
              it’s just the beginning of the defeat and ruin of the country!

              Well, in the third, this scenario is most likely at the current time for Turkey, especially if Erdogan does not hold on to the power received earlier, which I talk about on the different branches of the site the second day.
              1. Tatyana
                Tatyana 22 October 2015 10: 56 New
                +2
                avt (2)
                Quote: Tatiana
                It wasn’t figs to revive Erdogan in his dreams some Ottoman Empire there!
                Firstly, he revived it not in dreams, but in his own practice and until the moment he got into Suria, quite successfully.

                That's it - Erdogan in the footsteps of Hitler and the same Napoleon went!
                And you, dear avt (2), thought that Erdogan would limit himself only to the territory of Turkey with his revival of the Ottoman Empire ?! Oh well!
                Hedgehog understood how it would end!
                1. avt
                  avt 22 October 2015 12: 11 New
                  0
                  Quote: Tatiana
                  And you, dear avt (2), thought

                  laughing Actually, what I think about and consider it necessary to share, I write in the comments. Here you can inquire about what the Kazakhs visiting this site argued about on this subject regarding the “Turkic world” and Erdogan’s attitude to it.
                  1. Tatyana
                    Tatyana 22 October 2015 17: 34 New
                    0
                    avt (2)
                    Actually, what I think about and consider it necessary to share, I write in the comments
                    Cute avt (2)!
                    In any case, do not be offended by me! I’m not at war with you drinks - and also share my impressions! love
                    Just the question of Turkey for war and peace is very serious.
                    1. Eugene-Eugene
                      Eugene-Eugene 22 October 2015 22: 34 New
                      0
                      Just a question about Turkey for war and peace is very serious.
                      Erdogan did not have a fig to revive some Ottoman Empire in his dreams! I also found the second Hitler

                      Then in the Middle East and other "Hitlers" enough laughing, including the Saudis and Persians - they are on a par with Turkey fighting for dominance in the region. This is a normal process and it is going on all over the planet: the Russian Federation is slowly taking control of the post-Soviet space, China is fighting for Southeast Asia, and Germany - for Europe. The difference of the Middle East from other regions is the absence of an undisputed leader among the countries, hence the series of ongoing conflicts. Until the competition is eliminated, we will observe this orgy.
                      Turkey seems to be blown away. Erdogan has already lost parliament, it remains to lose the presidency. Now Europe is getting rid of 404, pulling it apart piece by piece, it will be the turn of the Turks for euro maidan. Not for nothing that the topic of European integration has surfaced in recent days. We are waiting for a new batch of cookies ... And Erdogan was so close to the goal, poor child.
          2. captain
            captain 22 October 2015 18: 12 New
            0
            I liked the article, the author’s thought is very sober and convincing. Let's see over time whether the author is right or not.
      2. The comment was deleted.
  2. The lead
    The lead 22 October 2015 06: 56 New
    11
    I don’t understand why they all demand Assad’s resignation? It’s so not democratic, not liberal, not constitutional, there is interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. And in fact, if Assad is ranked among the tyrants by the West, then let them demand ... democratic elections .Here, Assad will win this election without any options, this is well understood in the West, as well as the fact that Syria does not have a normal opposition, so all that remains for the West is to show aggression that violates international law. However, here the usual course of the game was broken , a new player intervened, so the throwing began, let's see what will happen next. In general, success in Syria promises the Russian Federation an increase in the international position, respect for the international community, so for us in Syria now there is only one way to victory. Somehow, it’s hardly believed that the enemies Syria will so easily allow all this to be realized, they will draw new cards from the sleeve, it is necessary to be prepared for this.
  3. samarin1969
    samarin1969 22 October 2015 06: 57 New
    -8
    Turkey’s position has hardly changed without concessions from Russia ... it remains to persuade Assad
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 22 October 2015 07: 17 New
    +4
    experts talked about a possible new vector of regional policy in Turkey.

    It is the work of experts to respond to changing circumstances. But it’s useful not to forget what extremes Turkey rushed over the past month. I won’t be surprised if tomorrow, for some reason, opposing statements are heard.
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 22 October 2015 07: 23 New
    +7
    the union of Turkey, Iran and Russia against the background of events in the region and the growing threat of terrorism and radicalism is inevitable. ”.. Too optimistic .. The Turks, the allies are not constant .. The cream will be removed and drained .. So it was more than once ...
    1. Dryuya2
      Dryuya2 22 October 2015 08: 16 New
      +3
      Quote: parusnik
      Turks, allies are not permanent.

      http://www.rbc.ru/politics/21/10/2015/5627b3969a7947e959338e34
      Qatar allowed armed intervention in Syria
      Qatar allowed the use of military force to support opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after Russia intervened in the conflict. Qatari Foreign Minister emphasizes preference for political decision
      Qatar’s Foreign Minister Khalid Al-Attiyah said his country doesn’t rule out armed intervention in Syria, Reuters reports. According to the agency, in this way the diplomat answered the question of the correspondent of the Arabic version of the American CNN channel.

      Al-Attiyah was asked whether Qatar supported the position of Saudi Arabia, which did not rule out military intervention after the start of the Russian operation in Syria. “We will not spare any effort with our Saudi and turkish brothersin order to do everything to protect the Syrian people and Syria from collapse, whatever that is, ”the minister said.

      Reuters also cites a statement from al-Attiyah published by Qatar state-run news agency QNA: "If military intervention protects the Syrian people from the regime’s brutality, we will do it."

      The Minister stressed that his country would prefer to resolve the Syrian conflict through political dialogue.

      The deputy head of the Syrian Foreign Ministry, Faisal Mekdad, warned of a harsh response to aggression. “If Qatar fulfills its threat of military intervention in Syria, then we will consider it a direct aggression ... Our answer will be tough,” Reuters quoted a senior Syrian diplomat as saying on Lebanese television channel Al-Mayadin.
      ======
  6. Wolka
    Wolka 22 October 2015 07: 23 New
    10
    I don’t believe in this "isosceles triangle", where its foundation, Turkey is certainly a player in the region and it is impossible to discount it (the European gate to the Middle East after all), Iran is an even more mysterious player (cat), and Syria is not one from the vertices of a triangle, rather a straight line dividing this triangle into parts, and the matter is not a Sunni-Shiite confrontation, the whole thing is access and control to the European and Asian markets of gas and oil from the Middle East and the layout of this triangle is exactly where, where, where and how routes will be laid for the construction of future gas and oil pipelines (by the way, China is considered a major investor), there is clearly no place for the Yankees and the British, but they have ambitions precisely to capture and control these future highways, so there is no way to see the triangle, at least a trapeze, if not a bigger polygon ...
  7. sa-ag
    sa-ag 22 October 2015 07: 32 New
    +7
    "Ankara is ready to support a plan to transfer power in Syria."

    In what offices did this plan appear if Ankara is only ready to support it? Another caveat - Putin announced the visit of Assad to the heads of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and it seems Iran ...
  8. 31rus
    31rus 22 October 2015 07: 50 New
    +2
    I agree, the author has too bright hopes, firstly, Iran’s exit is not like Turkey’s plan, because Iran will and can influence politics and the situation in Syria further, secondly, no matter how Turkey behaves with Syria, it doesn’t what doesn’t shine (here either peace or war on the border), thirdly, in order to pursue a policy that the author of Turkey describes, you yourself need to be independent, and there will not be many more negative aspects of such cooperation, some kind of treaties are possible, three third-party or two, but not mutually exclusive
  9. mamont5
    mamont5 22 October 2015 08: 08 New
    +6
    Quote: Lead
    I don’t understand why they all demand Assad’s resignation? It’s not so democratic, not liberal,

    So all of Western democracy is a fairy tale for the "poor." They have a completely different policy for themselves.
  10. cniza
    cniza 22 October 2015 08: 23 New
    +8
    Quote: armored optimist
    Erdogan is trying to sit on two chairs. Both ours and yours, as they say. And under the guise and with the Kurds to deal with.



    Of course, he is far from Yanukovych, but something common is visible.
  11. Gray 43
    Gray 43 22 October 2015 08: 33 New
    +1
    The author kept silent about acts of armed aggression against Syria on the side of the illegal armed formation, buying up oil, supporting bandits, not immediately the Turks will change their mind
  12. Engineer
    Engineer 22 October 2015 08: 39 New
    +2
    Nonsense. And this, after the words of the Turkish Prime Minister to Assad, so that he forever remains in Moscow?
  13. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 October 2015 08: 44 New
    +4
    All this is muddy. Something the enemies thought was bad. But Erdogan cannot be trusted. Political pros ...
  14. maikl50jrij
    maikl50jrij 22 October 2015 08: 54 New
    0
    If the Janissaries "consult" with amers about Assad, what kind of union can there be? Yes, even if they pursued an independent policy, then in this case the alliance with them would be a fiction. Erdogan rushes about like a tongue in a bell. stop
  15. afrikanez
    afrikanez 22 October 2015 09: 03 New
    +1
    In short, the Americans in the Middle East are absolutely superfluous and the countries of the region need to memorize this by heart.
  16. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 22 October 2015 09: 26 New
    11
    I do not believe the Turks ... Here is their prime minister blurted out, so blurted out ...)))))
    1. avt
      avt 22 October 2015 10: 54 New
      +1
      Quote: MIKHAN
      I do not believe the Turks ... Here is their prime minister blurted out, so blurted out ...)))))

      request You can’t please you .... The man said, ,, Muslim brother "the truth, and you immediately blundered on him," blurted out. Tea he is not Klitschko. laughing
      1. MIKHAN
        MIKHAN 22 October 2015 11: 30 New
        +3
        Quote: avt
        Quote: MIKHAN
        I do not believe the Turks ... Here is their prime minister blurted out, so blurted out ...)))))

        request You can’t please you .... The man said, ,, Muslim brother "the truth, and you immediately blundered on him," blurted out. Tea he is not Klitschko. laughing

        What is in the mind is in the language ... bully It will be expected that such Russians will have a rest in Antalya!
        1. Phantom Revolution
          Phantom Revolution 22 October 2015 19: 48 New
          0
          Quote: MIKHAN

          What is in the mind, then in the language ... bully It will be expected that such Russians will have such a rest in Antalya!

          I think that Iran should first of all provide human resources for Syria, because he has a question of influence in this region. Perhaps he is only activated when he realizes that it is time to actively collect cream at the expense of the Syrians and the VKS.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  17. xin-l
    xin-l 22 October 2015 10: 07 New
    +3
    Quote: MIKHAN
    I do not believe the Turks ... Here is their prime minister blurted out, so blurted out ...)))))

    Ha ha Freudian slip. )))
    Oh, I don’t know, I don’t know. The elections for Erdogan and his party are likely to repeat their recent "success." Erdogan really crazy quarreled with all neighbors Egypt Israel Cyprus Syria. Iran will supply Turkey, haha! This has already happened Iran frankly failed, the infrastructure is old and Turkey had again to ask Russia to supply gas. So the outcome of this demarche is predictable.
  18. Roy
    Roy 22 October 2015 10: 22 New
    +2
    Turkey is an unreliable partner. This is evidenced by the entire history of our relations, but friendships must be maintained and developed. But today's Iran is a serious and thorough partner, and most importantly - an implacable enemy of the United States and Zion.
  19. dojjdik
    dojjdik 22 October 2015 10: 30 New
    +3
    Jews think that by hanging Assad they will start a war with Iran, well, dreams to de-nationalize Iranian oil are generally quite good, but they will remain dreams - dictator Assad will always disturb them; in addition, in Iraq, instead of the hanged Hussein, with the help of Russia and Iran, a new dictator will be planted who will nationalize Iraqi oil; so in the near future, Jews, in addition to their bantustat of Saudi Arabia, will no longer be able to rob oil
  20. Genry
    Genry 22 October 2015 11: 36 New
    0
    This is only Erdogan’s wishlist! Assad has no consent!

    It was interesting to see how the author presented, in all seriousness, fake news about Assad’s consent for half a year and how some began to famously discuss it.
    These "some" are worth remembering!
  21. slizhov
    slizhov 22 October 2015 12: 12 New
    0
    I don’t understand why at present this issue that is absolutely not important for the country should be addressed.
    To bend under the lightweight Oma?
    I do not believe that Putin is worried about this issue when Igil is not at all broom driven by blows on the tail or on the mane ...
    1. creep: b
      creep: b 22 October 2015 18: 14 New
      0
      Just in the confrontation there is such a simple rule to give in a little so that then chop off more
  22. andrew42
    andrew42 22 October 2015 13: 57 New
    +1
    The more I observe Erdogan’s policies, the more I come to the conclusion that Erdogan is a banal adventurer. And his closest party members are the same. Thus, one can risk one’s own state only if fantasies completely disagree with a sober assessment of the situation and prospects. Everyone understands Erdogan’s nightmare - Kurdyyy !!! Any sober politician would try to stop this problem so that the Kurds of neighboring territories would not gain independence, and would not pull part of Turkey under the newly created Kurdistan. In relation to the Kurds - yes, it is unfair. In relation to the Turks, this is their main interest. Instead, Erdogan simply combes this sore: it helps to break through the countries (Iraq, Syria), where the Kurds were in the role of a disconnected minority. In the place of the average Turk, I would come to the conclusion that Erdogan specifically collects the Kurds together, and then intends to donate part of Turkey to them. Well, it’s ridiculous to think that the united Kurdish territories will join Turkey and Erdogan will control and hold them. This is on the one hand, as if the policy of Turkey was independent. On the other hand, since Turkey is wobbling, but still walking in the wake of US geopolitics, Erdogan should be afraid that the masters of the States will subjugate the Kurds and use them against Turkey, as a “scarecrow”. One chain dog, IG, that's good. And two (with disoriented Kurds on a leash) are even better! As a result, Turkey almost ALREADY received 2 threats in one harness: 1) the IS, which Turkey itself feeds (and on the command of the American owner, the IS dog may well cling to the throat of a Turkish servant), 2) the combined Kurdish military formations. Yes, it’s time for Turkey to fall into Assad’s legs so that this does not happen. But, pan-Turkic adventurers, led by Erdogan, confidently lead the Turkish ship to the rocks, according to the "most democratic" navigation maps in the world, that is, according to the US "navigation". Woe to such a country with such leaders. Really crazy.
  23. EVIL KOLORAD
    EVIL KOLORAD 22 October 2015 18: 56 New
    +1
    Oh you, priests ... Turkey "allowed" Assad to rule 6 months ... Figs, as Russia will say, it will be so now ... The question also is whether Russia needs Erdogan?
  24. Andryukha G
    Andryukha G 22 October 2015 22: 52 New
    0
    Now we need to stabilize the situation, stop the flow of militants and weapons across the Turkish border in Syria, and when the border is under control it will be possible to talk differently, like in one film I will leave then someday, maybe.