Turkey plus Iran plus Russia?

34
October 20 it became known: Ankara is ready to support the plan for the transfer of power in Syria. According to this plan, President Bashar Asad remains in office for another six months. This is nothing more than a symbolic gesture, and yet it looks very unusual for Turkey, whose leader not so long ago called Assad a "butcher" and a "murderer." Upon learning of this turnaround, the experts started talking about a possible new vector of the regional policy of Turkey.



Turkey’s readiness to support the plan for the transfer of power in Syria, according to which Bashar Asad will symbolically remain at his post for six months, Reuters reported, citing senior officials in the Turkish government. According to one of the sources that leads "Lenta.ru", work is now underway on a plan, according to which the Syrian President should leave power.

The deadline for counting six months has not yet been determined. One of the sources reported on the discussion of the issue with the United States: “We were able to advance to a certain extent in the discussion of this issue with the United States and other allies. So far, we do not know exactly when this period will begin in six months, but we think that this will happen rather soon. ”

Head of the Arab Service News agencies "Trend" Rufiz Hafizoglu (Rufiz Hafizoglu) recalls the Ankara terrorist attack on October 10, which is considered the bloodiest terrorist attack in stories Modern Turkey: 96 people killed and more 240 injured.

The organization that arranged the attack is not currently known exactly. According to preliminary data, this is the “Islamic State”.

As a result of the terrorist attack, not only people died. The image of the Justice and Development Party has faded. But on the nose - parliamentary elections in Turkey.

Because of the terrorist attack, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan canceled a visit to Turkmenistan, where he planned to discuss the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline.

Earlier, President Erdogan said, the analyst reminds that, if necessary, Turkey can buy gas not only from Russia. After that, Iran made a statement. From there it was reported that Tehran could increase the supply of natural gas to Turkey. After the terrorist attack in Ankara, Iran made another statement. According to representatives of Tehran, this terrorist act is an episode of terrorist activity, and therefore Iran hopes that Ankara will reconsider its policy in the region.

As Rufiz Hafizoglu believes, this is nothing but a signal to Ankara about the need to change its policy towards Syria.

According to the journalist, the change of Turkey’s policy regarding Syria is a matter of time. The author also recalls that after his visit to Moscow, President Erdogan made a sensational statement: he said that a temporary government headed by President Assad could be formed in Syria.

Rufiz Hafizoglu does not think that before the elections in Ankara, the Justice and Development Party will change its policy towards Syria. However, it is possible that this may happen after the parliamentary elections - if only the Justice and Development Party wins them. (Recall, the elections in Turkey will be held on November 1.)

On closer examination of recent terrorist acts in Turkey, the expert believes, one can see in them the Syrian factor - “in almost all cases”.

This gives grounds to assert that sooner or later Ankara “will have to join the Russian-Iranian coalition,” even if such a move contradicts Turkish interests in Syria, Hafizoglu concludes.

“In fact,” he writes, “only a possible alliance between Turkey, Iran and Russia can finally destroy the growing threat of terrorism in the region.”

And here are the arguments of the analyst.

Iran has close ties with the authorities of Syria and Iraq. Tehran did not forget the support of Ankara at the time when the EU countries imposed sanctions against the supply of Iranian oil and gas. Turkey supports Iran in foreign trade. In addition, she made efforts during the negotiations between Iran and the "six".

The participation of the Sunni Muslims of Turkey in the hostilities against the "IS" together with Iran and Russia will break the stereotypes concerning the supposedly existing confrontation between Shiites and Sunnis in Syria and Iraq.

Finally, Turkey’s participation in a coalition with Iran and Russia against the IG may limit Western influence in the region. And this is really in the interests of Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, the expert believes.

“Taking into account common interests among the parties, one can say,” the analyst summarizes, “that the union of Turkey, Iran and Russia against the background of events in the region and the growing threat of terrorism and radicalism is inevitable.”

* * *


It appears that Erdogan agrees to the “Six Months” plan not at all because he wants to create a “union of Turkey, Iran and Russia”. No wonder there is a "discussion" of the plan with the United States. Recently, under pressure from the actions of Russia in Syria, Washington with a sigh approved a temporary stay in office of B. Assad, and now Turkey can only follow the position of the "world hegemon." Therefore, the term of Assad’s power will not be determined by Ankara, but Washington.

As for the attitude of representatives of Syria towards Erdogan, it is difficult to call him calm.

Recently, the Ambassador of the Syrian Arab Republic in Russia, Riyad Haddad, criticized the position of the Turkish President regarding the situation with Syrian refugees and even called the Turkish leader a "psycho."

“Erdogan has big political blunders. He became the enemy of all countries in the region, he has painful ambitions for the revival of the Ottoman Empire. In general, I think that he is crazy and feels like a sultan, ”comrade Haddad said in an interview Gazeta.ru.

In addition, the Justice and Development Party, with its “tarnished” image, has little chance of winning an unconditional victory. The “Sultan” from Erdogan also did not work out: the old constitution in Turkey is still in force. There are apparently no prospects for the creation of a super-presidential republic in the country.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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    1. +17
      October 22 2015
      Erdogan is trying to sit on two chairs. Both ours and yours, as they say. And under the guise and with the Kurds to deal with.
      1. +11
        October 22 2015
        As though of this multi-worker, the gap between half-asses did not increase, to unacceptable sizes, in a decent society not voiced ... to all the lieutenants to be silent, the key phrase is DECENT SOCIETY ...
        1. +8
          October 22 2015
          Quote from the article
          “Erdogan has big political miscalculations. He became the enemy of all the countries of the region, he has painful ambitions for the revival of the Ottoman Empire. I generally think that he (Erdogan) is crazy and feels like a sultan ”- said the ambassador of the Syrian Arab Republic to Russia Riyad Haddad.

          This is truly the correct political description for Erdogan - "PSYCH, who feels like a SULTAN" - this is already an accurate medical diagnosis - you don't even need to call doctors!
          1. avt
            +4
            October 22 2015
            Quote: Tatiana
            This is truly the correct political description for Erdogan - "PSYCH, who feels like a SULTAN" - this is already an accurate medical diagnosis - you don't even need to call doctors!

            No. You are wrong and very hard! It works quite in the spirit of the Turkish proverb - “If you can’t cut off your hand, kiss it.” He doesn’t understand very well that if you continue to drill, the USA will light Turkey like Suria. And this is not such a fantasy. Who could represent the years two ago, that the IRGC would be deployed on the border with Turkey, and its commander would go to Damascus as a dacha ??? Now give weapons to the PKK and the Turks - Marxists and it will rush not childishly! Erdogan cannot fail to understand this, especially since, , the democratic spring "in the park of Istanbul / Constantinople has already shown the Jamaat of Gulen not childishly, but add one and a half, two million refugees squeezed out of Suria by militants .... will explode at once - just bring a match.
            1. +2
              October 22 2015
              avt (2)
              Quote: Tatiana
              This is truly the correct political description for Erdogan - "PSYCH, who feels like a SULTAN" - this is already an accurate medical diagnosis - you don't even need to call doctors!
              You are mistaken and very strong!

              Nothing like this!
              It wasn’t figs for Erdogan to revive in his dreams some Ottoman Empire there!
              I also found a second Hitler! What Erdogan did not know how it would end for the Turks and the country with its nationalist policies? And this is only the beginning of the defeat and ruin of his country!
              The paranoid ambitions of political leaders by psychiatrists must be checked and treated in a timely manner! For always in history, in the final analysis, such ambitions somehow end in complete fiasco!
              1. avt
                +3
                October 22 2015
                Quote: Tatiana
                It wasn’t figs to revive Erdogan in his dreams some Ottoman Empire there!

                Firstly, he revived it not in dreams, but quite in practice, and up to the moment when he climbed into Suria quite successfully.
                Quote: Tatiana
                What Erdogan did not know how it would end for the Turks and this country with politics?

                Secondly, no one - with what fright did you decide that he was preparing a disaster? Everything went quite smoothly for him, again until the time of the first see.
                Quote: Tatiana
                it’s just the beginning of the defeat and ruin of the country!

                Well, in the third, this scenario is most likely at the current time for Turkey, especially if Erdogan does not hold on to the power received earlier, which I talk about on the different branches of the site the second day.
                1. +2
                  October 22 2015
                  avt (2)
                  Quote: Tatiana
                  It wasn’t figs to revive Erdogan in his dreams some Ottoman Empire there!
                  Firstly, he revived it not in dreams, but in his own practice and until the moment he got into Suria, quite successfully.

                  That's it - Erdogan in the footsteps of Hitler and the same Napoleon went!
                  And you, dear avt (2), thought that Erdogan would limit himself only to the territory of Turkey with his revival of the Ottoman Empire ?! Oh well!
                  Hedgehog understood how it would end!
                  1. avt
                    0
                    October 22 2015
                    Quote: Tatiana
                    And you, dear avt (2), thought

                    laughing Actually, what I think about and consider it necessary to share, I write in the comments. Here you can in the archive be curious about what on this topic with the Kazakhs visiting this site argued about the "Turkic world" and Erdogan's attitude to it.
                    1. 0
                      October 22 2015
                      avt (2)
                      Actually, what I think about and consider it necessary to share, I write in the comments
                      Cute avt (2)!
                      In any case, do not be offended by me! I’m not at war with you drinks - and also share my impressions! love
                      Just the question of Turkey for war and peace is very serious.
                      1. 0
                        October 22 2015
                        Just a question about Turkey for war and peace is very serious.
                        Erdogan did not have a fig to revive some Ottoman Empire in his dreams! I also found the second Hitler

                        Then there are enough other "Hitlers" in the Middle East laughing, including the Saudis and Persians - they are on a par with Turkey fighting for dominance in the region. This is a normal process and it is going on all over the planet: the Russian Federation is slowly taking control of the post-Soviet space, China is fighting for Southeast Asia, and Germany - for Europe. The difference of the Middle East from other regions is the absence of an undisputed leader among the countries, hence the series of ongoing conflicts. Until the competition is eliminated, we will observe this orgy.
                        Turkey seems to be blown away. Erdogan has already lost parliament, it remains to lose the presidency. Now Europe is getting rid of 404, pulling it apart piece by piece, it will be the turn of the Turks for euro maidan. Not for nothing that the topic of European integration has surfaced in recent days. We are waiting for a new batch of cookies ... And Erdogan was so close to the goal, poor child.
            2. 0
              October 22 2015
              I liked the article, the author’s thought is very sober and convincing. Let's see over time whether the author is right or not.
        2. The comment was deleted.
    2. +11
      October 22 2015
      I don’t understand why they all demand Assad’s resignation? It’s so not democratic, not liberal, not constitutional, there is interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. And in fact, if Assad is ranked among the tyrants by the West, then let them demand ... democratic elections .Here, Assad will win this election without any options, this is well understood in the West, as well as the fact that Syria does not have a normal opposition, so all that remains for the West is to show aggression that violates international law. However, here the usual course of the game was broken , a new player intervened, so the throwing began, let's see what will happen next. In general, success in Syria promises the Russian Federation an increase in the international position, respect for the international community, so for us in Syria now there is only one way to victory. Somehow, it’s hardly believed that the enemies Syria will so easily allow all this to be realized, they will draw new cards from the sleeve, it is necessary to be prepared for this.
    3. -8
      October 22 2015
      Turkey’s position has hardly changed without concessions from Russia ... it remains to persuade Assad
    4. +4
      October 22 2015
      experts talked about a possible new vector of regional policy in Turkey.

      It is the work of experts to respond to changing circumstances. But it’s useful not to forget what extremes Turkey rushed over the past month. I won’t be surprised if tomorrow, for some reason, opposing statements are heard.
    5. +7
      October 22 2015
      the union of Turkey, Iran and Russia against the background of events in the region and the growing threat of terrorism and radicalism is inevitable. ”.. Too optimistic .. The Turks, the allies are not constant .. The cream will be removed and drained .. So it was more than once ...
      1. +3
        October 22 2015
        Quote: parusnik
        Turks, allies are not permanent.

        http://www.rbc.ru/politics/21/10/2015/5627b3969a7947e959338e34
        Qatar allowed armed intervention in Syria
        Qatar allowed the use of military force to support opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after Russia intervened in the conflict. Qatari Foreign Minister emphasizes preference for political decision
        Qatar’s Foreign Minister Khalid Al-Attiyah said his country doesn’t rule out armed intervention in Syria, Reuters reports. According to the agency, in this way the diplomat answered the question of the correspondent of the Arabic version of the American CNN channel.

        Al-Attiyah was asked whether Qatar supported the position of Saudi Arabia, which did not rule out military intervention after the start of the Russian operation in Syria. “We will not spare any effort with our Saudi and turkish brothersin order to do everything to protect the Syrian people and Syria from collapse, whatever that is, ”the minister said.

        Reuters also cites a statement from al-Attiyah published by Qatar state-run news agency QNA: "If military intervention protects the Syrian people from the regime’s brutality, we will do it."

        The Minister stressed that his country would prefer to resolve the Syrian conflict through political dialogue.

        The deputy head of the Syrian Foreign Ministry, Faisal Mekdad, warned of a harsh response to aggression. “If Qatar fulfills its threat of military intervention in Syria, then we will consider it a direct aggression ... Our answer will be tough,” Reuters quoted a senior Syrian diplomat as saying on Lebanese television channel Al-Mayadin.
        ======
    6. +10
      October 22 2015
      I do not believe in this "isosceles triangle", where its base is, Turkey is definitely a player in the region and cannot be discounted (the European gateway to the Middle East, after all), Iran is an even more mysterious player (cat), and Syria is not a single from the tops of the triangle, rather a straight line dividing this triangle into parts, and it's not at all the Sunni-Shiite confrontation, it's all about access and control to the European and Asian gas and oil markets from the Middle East and the layout of this triangle exactly where, from where, where and how routes will be laid for the construction of future gas and oil pipelines (by the way, China is considered a major investor), there is clearly no place for the Yankees and the British, but they have ambitions to capture and control these future highways, so the triangle is not visible, at least a trapezoid, if not yet a larger polygon ...
    7. +7
      October 22 2015
      "Ankara is ready to support the plan to transfer power in Syria."

      In what offices did this plan appear if Ankara is only ready to support it? Another caveat - Putin announced the visit of Assad to the heads of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and it seems Iran ...
    8. +2
      October 22 2015
      I agree, the author has too bright hopes, firstly, Iran’s exit is not like Turkey’s plan, because Iran will and can influence politics and the situation in Syria further, secondly, no matter how Turkey behaves with Syria, it doesn’t what doesn’t shine (here either peace or war on the border), thirdly, in order to pursue a policy that the author of Turkey describes, you yourself need to be independent, and there will not be many more negative aspects of such cooperation, some kind of treaties are possible, three third-party or two, but not mutually exclusive
    9. +6
      October 22 2015
      Quote: Lead
      I don’t understand why they all demand Assad’s resignation? It’s not so democratic, not liberal,

      So all Western democracy is a fairy tale for the "poor". For themselves, they have a completely different policy.
    10. +8
      October 22 2015
      Quote: armored optimist
      Erdogan is trying to sit on two chairs. Both ours and yours, as they say. And under the guise and with the Kurds to deal with.



      Of course, he is far from Yanukovych, but something common is visible.
    11. +1
      October 22 2015
      The author kept silent about acts of armed aggression against Syria on the side of the illegal armed formation, buying up oil, supporting bandits, not immediately the Turks will change their mind
    12. +2
      October 22 2015
      Nonsense. And this, after the words of the Turkish Prime Minister to Assad, so that he forever remains in Moscow?
    13. +4
      October 22 2015
      All this is muddy. Something the enemies thought was bad. But Erdogan cannot be trusted. Political pros ...
    14. 0
      October 22 2015
      If the janissaries "consult" with the amers about Assad, what kind of alliance can there be? And even if they pursued an independent policy, then in this case an alliance with them would be a fiction. Erdogan rushes about like ... a tongue in a bell. stop
    15. +1
      October 22 2015
      In short, the Americans in the Middle East are absolutely superfluous and the countries of the region need to memorize this by heart.
    16. +11
      October 22 2015
      I do not believe the Turks ... Here is their prime minister blurted out, so blurted out ...)))))
      1. avt
        +1
        October 22 2015
        Quote: MIKHAN
        I do not believe the Turks ... Here is their prime minister blurted out, so blurted out ...)))))

        request You can't please you .... The man said, “the Muslim brother is“ the truth, but you immediately blurted out at him. " Tea is not Klitschko. laughing
        1. +3
          October 22 2015
          Quote: avt
          Quote: MIKHAN
          I do not believe the Turks ... Here is their prime minister blurted out, so blurted out ...)))))

          request You can't please you .... The man said, “the Muslim brother is“ the truth, but you immediately blurted out at him. " Tea is not Klitschko. laughing

          What is in the mind is in the language ... bully It will be expected that such Russians will have a rest in Antalya!
          1. 0
            October 22 2015
            Quote: MIKHAN

            What is in the mind, then in the language ... bully It will be expected that such Russians will have such a rest in Antalya!

            I think that Iran should first of all provide human resources for Syria, because he has a question of influence in this region. Perhaps he is only activated when he realizes that it is time to actively collect cream at the expense of the Syrians and the VKS.
      2. The comment was deleted.
    17. +3
      October 22 2015
      Quote: MIKHAN
      I do not believe the Turks ... Here is their prime minister blurted out, so blurted out ...)))))

      Ha ha Freudian slip. )))
      Oh, I don’t know. I don’t know. The elections for Erdogan and his party are likely to repeat their recent "success." Erdogan really fell out with all of Egypt's neighbors, Israel, Cyprus, Syria. Iran will supply Turkey, haha! This has already happened Iran, frankly speaking, has failed, the infrastructure is old and Turkey had to again ask Russia to supply gas. So the outcome of this demarche is predictable.
    18. Roy
      +2
      October 22 2015
      Turkey is an unreliable partner. This is evidenced by the entire history of our relations, but friendships must be maintained and developed. But today's Iran is a serious and thorough partner, and most importantly - an implacable enemy of the United States and Zion.
    19. +3
      October 22 2015
      Jews think that by hanging Assad they will start a war with Iran, well, dreams to de-nationalize Iranian oil are generally quite good, but they will remain dreams - dictator Assad will always disturb them; in addition, in Iraq, instead of the hanged Hussein, with the help of Russia and Iran, a new dictator will be planted who will nationalize Iraqi oil; so in the near future, Jews, in addition to their bantustat of Saudi Arabia, will no longer be able to rob oil
    20. 0
      October 22 2015
      This is only Erdogan’s wishlist! Assad has no consent!

      It was interesting to see how the author presented, in all seriousness, fake news about Assad’s consent for half a year and how some began to famously discuss it.
      These "some" are worth remembering!
    21. 0
      October 22 2015
      I don’t understand why at present this issue that is absolutely not important for the country should be addressed.
      To bend under the lightweight Oma?
      I do not believe that Putin is worried about this issue when Igil is not at all broom driven by blows on the tail or on the mane ...
      1. 0
        October 22 2015
        Just in the confrontation there is such a simple rule to give in a little so that then chop off more
    22. +1
      October 22 2015
      The more I watch Erdogan's policies, the more I come to the conclusion that Erdogan is a banal adventurer. And his closest party members are the same. So you can risk your own state only if fantasies are completely at odds with a sober assessment of the situation and prospects. Everyone understands Erdogan's nightmare - Kurdyyy !!! Any sober politician would try to stop this problem so that the Kurds of neighboring territories would not gain independence, and would not pull up a part of Turkey under the newly created Kurdistan. In relation to the Kurds, yes, it is unfair. In relation to the Turks, this is their main interest. Instead, Erdogan is simply combing this sore: he helps to break the countries (Iraq, Syria), where the Kurds were in the role of a divided minority. In the place of the average Turk, I would come to the conclusion that Erdogan is deliberately gathering the Kurds together, and then intends to sacrifice a part of Turkey to them. Well, it's ridiculous to think that the united Kurdish territories will become part of Turkey and Erdogan will control and keep them. On the one hand, it is as if Turkey's policy were independent. On the other hand, since Turkey is wobbling, but still following the wake of US geopolitics, Erdogan should have feared that the US masters would subdue the Kurds and use them against Turkey as a "scarecrow". One chain fighting dog, IG, that's good. And two (with disoriented Kurds on a leash) are even better! As a result, Turkey almost ALREADY received 2 threats in one team: 1) IS, which Turkey itself feeds (and at the command of the American owner, the IS dog may well grab the throat of a Turkish servant), 2) united Kurdish military formations. It is high time for Turkey to fall into the legs of Assad so that this does not happen. But, the pan-Turkist avaturists, led by Erdogan, confidently lead the Turkish ship to the rocks, according to the "most democratic" navigation maps in the world, that is, according to the US "navigation". Woe to such a country with such leaders. Indeed, psychos.
    23. +1
      October 22 2015
      Oh you, priests ... Turkey "allowed" Assad to rule for 6 months ... Fig you, as Russia says, so now it will be ... The question is also - does Russia need Erdogan?
    24. 0
      October 22 2015
      Now we need to stabilize the situation, stop the flow of militants and weapons across the Turkish border in Syria, and when the border is under control it will be possible to talk differently, like in one film I will leave then someday, maybe.

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