Military Review

Syria is waiting

For a break in the course of the war, ammunition, military advisers and diplomats are needed

The offensive of the Syrian army in the province of Hama slowed down. In other areas, the activity of Islamists is increasing. The stabilization of the front is fraught with the loss of chances of a quick turnaround in the course of the war. It is necessary to radically increase the combat capabilities of the Syrian army and increase the grouping of the Russian aviation to a level that ensures an offensive with a high pace in at least two or three main directions with the stability of defense in others.

The factor of suddenness of Russia's entry into the war in Syria has largely ceased to operate. First, the militants recovered from the shock and adjusted the techniques and methods of warfare. Secondly, it turned out that the Russian air strikes on the enemy’s infrastructure had a less significant impact on its combat capability than expected. The main result of the bombing was the lack of ammunition at the disposal of terrorists. But already on October 12, the United States transferred about 50 tons to them weapons (ostensibly to the formations fighting against the IG, but these are the same radical Islamists). Attacks on the command posts of the operational level (and a higher level) did not lead to a noticeable disorganization of control. Third, it is already clear that successful actions within a separate operational direction are not enough to turn the tide of the war. Fourth, the leading role of field artillery in defeating the enemy was revealed. When a barrage of fire fell on its front edge, the Syrian army was advancing at a high rate. As soon as the artillery support decreased (probably as a result of the expenditure of the main part of the ammunition), the advancement of the government troops slowed down sharply, despite the tripling intensity of the strikes of the Russian aviation. Without increasing the number of groups of our VKS, increasing the impact on the IG is no longer possible.

Headquarters fire is not as effective

In order to assess the impact of Russian strikes on the control system of the militias of the Islamic State, it is necessary to deal with its construction and operation, and also consider the tactics of Islamist actions in Syria. Their troops are almost completely irregular. First, they represent a conglomerate of relatively independent, small in size groups, each of which has its own specific structure. Secondly, technical equipment and weapons are very diverse without any standardization. Thirdly, the level of controllability of these detachments by higher authorities is much lower than in regular troops. The commander, having received a combat mission, is far from always able to perceive it in the way that his superior understands it, and will not begin to carry it out in all cases: he may refuse if he considers it to be “incorrect”. Fourthly, the tactical training of the commanders fully meets the requirements of the guerrilla warfare, but does not allow organizing and maintaining interaction with a large number of heterogeneous groups in complex forms of warfare. Fifthly, with a high degree of autonomy, terrorist units are able to conduct relatively long military operations in isolation from the main forces, relying on their own and local resources, captured weapons. Accordingly, each of these formations has its own arsenals, sometimes mobile. Sixth, military equipment, despite the fact that a lot was seized at the warehouses of the Iraqi army and in Syria, is used very limitedly, especially armored. This is determined by the high dependence of its actions on centralized supply in very large volumes, the lack of a sufficient number of trained personnel for its operation, spare parts and components, which makes it impossible to maintain serviceability.

The authorities at the strategic level formulate tasks for a relatively long period of time with an approximate designation of the composition of the forces and means involved in their solution. Here, the main function is to provide armed formations with material and other resources. The management bodies of the operational unit (zones and areas) determine specific tasks and distribute the forces allocated for their solution. They also organize the material and technical support of the preparation of individual formations for combat operations. The issues of organizing interaction, preparation of operations and others are stipulated in the most general form, the detailing is left to the commanders of the tactical level.

Monitoring of the course of combat operations, updating of operational and strategic tasks are carried out as the situation changes. From the nomenclature of technical means of control, the armed formations of the Islamic State have mainly mobile devices.

Analysis of information on the status of the management of the IG, especially the operational and tactical links, allows to make a conclusion about a well-established system of replacing defeated commanders and intercepting controls by the authorities that have remained capable of replacing those that were destroyed without a significant decrease in efficiency. The exact temporal indicators characterizing the ability of the system to recover are unknown. Yes, they can not be - too diverse in composition and preparation of these formations. However, by analogy with the partisan movement in the USSR and data on the activities of the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, it is possible to estimate the recovery time of disturbed control of the armed units of the IG at the tactical level on average from three to four hours to a day, in the operational one - from three several days to a month. At the same time, restoration means not just the appointment of a new person to the position, but also the transfer of the entire system of relations, including personal ones, to him, without which it is almost impossible to manage the unsuited people, sometimes politically and even personally motivated militants. This is especially true for the higher links of the IG. The personal relations of its leaders with external sponsors and allies serve as a kind of guarantee for the observance of the course to be set and for the curators to be controlled.

Where do the forces come from

Now it is possible to establish at least assessed the impact of Russian aviation strikes on the combat capability of the IG. First of all, it should be noted that judging by the location of the affected control points, as well as their stationarity, they mainly relate to the operational or operational-tactical level. Probably, most of the functions performed by them have already been transferred to others who have retained their performance or newly formed. So by now the management has been broken only in the area of ​​responsibility of three or four points. And while it is not fully restored. This can be judged by the reaction of the IG troops. There is no response from the operational scale of the terrorist formations.

Syria is waitingDestroyed weapons and ammunition depots are also likely to be operational. The impact of their destruction on the fighting capacity of Islamist formations will only affect a week or more from the beginning of intensive hostilities, which, in fact, is observed today. But due to the maneuver of reserves, Islamists can neutralize the consequences of the destruction of these warehouses. It is also possible to compensate for the loss of weapons due to overseas purchases, foreign deliveries (the United States has already announced a buildup of aid and weapons of ammunition from the “moderate opposition,” the fighters of which easily go into the IS) or the seizure of trophies.

The destruction of more than 120 units of military equipment directly affects the combat capability of those parts of the "Islamic state" that use it. However, the share of those is small. In addition, probably most of this technology is not capable, otherwise it would be in the army. Its destruction reduces the potential of IG formations by about 10 percent. The destruction of repair enterprises and workshops is equally affected, and not immediately, but after some time, an estimated two to three weeks.

Summing up the application of the Russian group of VKS in Syria, we note that the actions of our pilots deserve the highest praise. The number of objects destroyed in comparison with a relatively small number of combat missions significantly. As a result, a decrease in the combat capability of the IG troops can be estimated at 10 – 15 percent mainly in the province of Hama. The possibilities for the operational maneuver of the enemy due to the disorganization of the control system are significantly limited. This factor, combined with the transition of Russian aviation to the bombardment of fortifications and IS troops in its defense zone just before the attack of the Syrian army, as well as large-scale and exceptionally intensive fire engagement of the enemy with artillery (made possible by creating a significant reserve of ammunition, obviously, due to deliveries from Russia) allowed in a short time to solve the problem of defeating a part of the armed forces in a specific operational sector.

However, the subsequent sharp deceleration of the pace, threatening that the offensive will completely drown, indicates the need for urgent measures to radically change the course of the war not in one, but in several key areas. This is feasible if it is possible to radically increase the combat capabilities of the Syrian army so that it can conduct offensive operations at a high rate on at least two or three main operational areas, while maintaining the stability of the defense on others. The number of groups of Russian aviation must be brought to the level at which it will be able to act simultaneously on three or four operational areas with an intensity not lower than that shown today in the north.

The Syrian army’s combat capability can be radically increased primarily through large-scale deliveries of ammunition, weapons and military equipment. Outdated samples are also suitable, which should be transferred free of charge. They are no less effective against irregular formations than modern ones. Essential for Damascus could be the direction of a sufficient number of military advisers who will help restore controllability, combat and operational training, and the moral and psychological potential of the Armed Forces. After all, Syria has a large army, which is estimated to have up to 260 thousands of people, a few more tens of thousands in the Kurdish militia and Hamas. These forces are enough to defeat the IG and other opponents of the legitimate government of Syria. They are hampered by a low level of training of commanders, weak interaction, especially by the Armed Forces of Syria and other formations, as well as an acute shortage of weapons, ammunition and fuel and lubricants.

For the required operational capabilities of an aviation grouping, its strength must be increased in the near future to 100 – 140 vehicles involved in strikes against ground targets. There is a problem of home provision and logistics. But it can be solved by increasing the operational capacity of the Russian air base in Syria and creating a new one. It is very promising to use the Iranian airfield network for basing front-line aircraft of Russia. For attacks on the infrastructure of the Islamists can be brought Tu-22М3. A load of seven to nine tons allows them to have a combat radius of approximately 2500 kilometers, that is, using the airspace of Iran and Iraq, to ​​work from the Russian Caspian Sea. It is worth trying to bring to blows on the Iranian Air Force fighters. The latter are quite numerous, and the aircraft in their armament, even if they are very outdated, such as the Fantom-4 F2E, would make a tangible contribution to the defeat of the Islamic State. However, in order to succeed in the last three areas, additional and very substantial diplomatic efforts are needed, including to justify Iran’s open intervention in the war against IS.
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  1. mig31
    mig31 21 October 2015 14: 19
    Bashar officially confirmed his legitimacy by flying to Russia, but then it started for the "democracy" of the State Department ...
    1. Vitaly Anisimov
      Vitaly Anisimov 21 October 2015 14: 31
      The main "work" will be done by the special services ... And this is not done quickly! Aviation is an external deterrent. I think the most important thing is ahead ...
      1. _Vladislav_
        _Vladislav_ 21 October 2015 14: 41
        The time to build up an aviation strike group has long come. Since it is necessary to increase the intensity of airstrikes. With the number of airplanes that are in Latakia now (this is about 60 aircraft, of which about 45 are airplanes), the maximum intensity has already been squeezed out, provided the load on the flight crew is high.

        Syrian troops (government) are now advancing frankly - sluggishly. And often because they simply need a normal technique. And most of them ride on rusty holey (seasoned) buckets. Such assistance can be provided by Russia itself.

        At the same time, it is necessary to increase the intensity by increasing the number of aircraft (bring their number to 120 aircraft - at least). The airbase in Latakia is packed to capacity. Expanding it is unsafe, since a large concentration of aircraft in one place creates risks from the outside — and anyone else.
        But the deployment of Russian aerospace forces let's say in Iraq additionally - this would be an OPTION.
        1. mig31
          mig31 21 October 2015 14: 47
          I know Syria from the eighties, I need one more, at least a runway, or another air base for a mixed air regiment (read - air wings),
          1. _Vladislav_
            _Vladislav_ 21 October 2015 15: 16
            Quote: mig31
            I know Syria from the eighties, I need one more, at least a runway, or another air base for a mixed air regiment (read - air wings),

            This is a must.
            Russia's task in Syria is to develop the Syrian offensive. We must not allow a situation in which government troops run into an impenetrable wall (in the form of the Islamic State), and we pour bombs, translating their number into poor quality.

            A prerequisite for victory over the IG is the advance of the SAR army.
            P.E. Putin needs to look for options to accommodate an additional number of aircraft. If everything is dull, it would not be out of place to remove Admiral Kuznetsov from repair.
            1. Penetrator
              Penetrator 21 October 2015 15: 41
              Quote: _Vladislav_
              It would not be superfluous to remove Admiral Kuznetsov from repair.

              It has undergone repairs and is already preparing to go to sea. You do not know? smile However, the Su-33 and MiG-29K of the Kuznetsov air group are still fighters, albeit multipurpose. But, as they say, there is no fish and cancer.
              1. _Vladislav_
                _Vladislav_ 21 October 2015 16: 03
                Quote: Penetrator
                It has undergone repairs and is already preparing to go to sea. Don't you know? smile However, the Su-33 and MiG-29K of the Kuznetsov air group are still fighters, albeit multipurpose. But, as they say, there is no fish and cancer.

                It is very good if so. However, the actual potential of Kuznetsov will also not be enough, because it is only a light aircraft carrier 14 carrier-based Su-33 fighter aircraft 10 carrier-based MiG-29K fighter aircraft - this is not the amount that will lead to quality.

                An additional base is needed. Unlike American aircraft carriers such as Nimitz, Kuznetsov is underloaded.
      2. i80186
        i80186 21 October 2015 15: 06
        Quote: MIKHAN
        The main "work" will be done by the special services ... And this is not done quickly! Aviation is an external deterrent. I think the most important thing is ahead ...

        And I think that citizen Sivkov, who is not my friend for sure, is telling another lie. For example, he stated three weeks ago that it was impossible to provide our air group with ammunition and fuel in principle. He said that they could make 50 flights a day for a maximum of two weeks. And now he says that we have to put thousands of tons of ammunition and hundreds of pieces of equipment there. I wonder how? Indeed, three weeks ago we could not bring fuel for the unfortunate 30 aircraft.
        About 50 tons of ammunition, which were armed with 150 militants, he absolutely pleased me. Here is the depth of the analysis, where. Three hundred grams of ammunition were handed out to everyone, and now they will win. laughing
        1. user
          user 21 October 2015 21: 45
          already on October 12, the United States transferred about 50 tons of weapons to them

          It’s for sure, it’s interesting, apart from the drawn arrows on the map, this comrade understands something. For example, the unit’s ammunition consumption (for example, 100 fighters) and so on. . . For military operations on a Syrian scale, this is not even a handout, but a PR for the media.
        2. Asadullah
          Asadullah 21 October 2015 21: 49
          And I think that citizen Sivkov, who is not my friend for sure, is telling another lie.

          Raving soaring. Raises the meaning of the word delirium. Contributes to informative articles stuffed with extracts from textbooks. For example, on the tactics and management of Islamists in the b / d, in fact, they shared responsibility by city, in each city, the field commander is almost completely responsible for life on its territory according to the rule of the Caliphate, security, defense, military operations. Before the b \ d, they saturate the territory of capture with weapons and b \ n, the supply is practically on passenger buses, dig tunnels in which the caches are placed. This determines the success of ISIS in advancement. They are independent of supply, because in fact it has already taken place. Each operation is well thought out and organized. In short, any analytics should be well salted with individual facts and revealed a general tendency, in Sivkov, speculative essays. For an article on the dangers of smoking, fit.
    2. marlin1203
      marlin1203 21 October 2015 15: 08
      An article about how our aviation is operating inefficiently? In my opinion, for the number of aircraft that are there, they even work very well. If the issue is to increase the number of air wings, then this is another matter. You can add, we are not limited to this.
    3. One, two, on the left.
      One, two, on the left. 21 October 2015 17: 44
      You can’t get involved in an infantry war. This is not our option. Let the Iranians arrange the analysis. They need it.
      1. Dembel77
        Dembel77 21 October 2015 18: 50
        But already on October 12, the United States transferred about 50 tons of weapons to them (supposedly to formations fighting against the Islamic State, but these are the same radical Islamists)
        But is it possible to quietly transfer these re-distributors - that, hmm ... how could I put it softer ... well, you understand.
    4. Svidetel 45
      Svidetel 45 21 October 2015 23: 17
      I did not like this verbiage at the meeting between Assad and Putin "... Syria is fighting alone against the forces of international terrorism ...", but in fact. if you call a spade a spade, then Syria is fighting the aggression of the West at the head of the United States, and the forces of international terrorism are just an instrument in the hands of the West to overthrow the Assad regime, the last and only ally of Russia at the moment, which is unwanted by them, which means this is aggression against Russia ... Therefore, it is simply naive to count on any kind of cooperation with them. Today's Syria is Spain in the mid-30s of the last century, and therefore it is necessary to help Syria. Everyone. than we can. This is not a warlike itch, this is a harsh necessity, there is no other choice. The West accepts any concessions and readiness to compromise only as weakness, but it understands and respects strength very well.
      1. kayman4
        kayman4 22 October 2015 18: 25
        Everyone is so keen on bombing that they missed a much greater threat to the militants from Russia - namely, the collection of intelligence and possibly conducting active electronic warfare. This is a factor no worse than a bobm — although tracking it is harder.
  2. kostyan77708
    kostyan77708 21 October 2015 14: 20
    "The factor of surprise in Russia's entry into the war in Syria has largely ceased to operate. Firstly, the militants recovered from the shock and adjusted the techniques and methods of armed struggle. Secondly, it turned out that Russian airstrikes on the enemy's infrastructure had less significant impact on its combat capability than The main result of the bombing was a shortage of ammunition at the terrorists' disposal.But already on October 12, the United States transferred to them about 50 tons of weapons (allegedly to formations fighting against IS, but these are the same radical Islamists). ) did not lead to a noticeable disorganization of management. Thirdly, it is already obvious that successful actions within a separate operational area are insufficient to turn the tide of the war "- I read this, did not go further. I put an article "-", I think the General Staff knows better how many planes, ammunition, etc. to send to Syria, and what the situation is there. And so it turns out, according to the author, all the RF Armed Forces should be sent to Syria)))
    1. katalonec2014
      katalonec2014 21 October 2015 14: 28
      Whoever read the author, it immediately became clear that he didn’t have an article, that’s how the boss disappeared, everything is bad in the army, just awful. But looking at the international press, I understand the opposite. I do extremely rarely.
      1. Alexey-74
        Alexey-74 21 October 2015 15: 55
        I support, with such a view, it is possible to lose the war, they say little is done, inefficiently ... the boss has disappeared .... etc. I think that the General Staff of the Russian Federation is up to date with all the events and makes rational use of forces and means ....
    2. g1v2
      g1v2 21 October 2015 14: 56
      The author still draws conclusions without understanding the situation. Our main goal now is the army of conquest, which the Qatari, Turks, Saudis and mattresses created from nusra, akhram asham and smaller groups. This is already the army - with command, supply and warehouses, armed with American weapons. 5 directions of the offensive of the Syrian troops directed against this army. Recently 2 Hezbollah brigades with armored vehicles arrived from Iraq. Video of their arrival is on the Internet - they have a large number of tanks by the way, and they are now advancing near Aleppo in the direction of Idlib. The sixth blow is a breakthrough of the blockade of the Kveiris air base against the IG. The seventh blow is to unblock the road between the hama and the homs, again against the nusra, which is the basis of the army of conquest. The eighth strike - near Damascus, against the army of Islam, which bombarded our embassy and declared war on us. Plus counterattacks in the south against, again, nusra and other groups. A full-scale offensive on ig is a matter of the next stages, so far not at all up to it. The IS is fighting with everyone and so far it poses a greater danger to the nusra and the Islamic front, which it wants to absorb, than to us. The army of conquest in the north, according to our MO, is 15 thousand people, the army of Islam near Damascus is 5500, the number of militants involved against the Assad is 5 in the north (they attack the Islamic front and fight against Assad at Kveiris), up to 3-5 thousand at Palmyra and other sections of the front in the west and a couple of thousand against Deir ez Zora. That is, the forces of the nusra and its allies are much more dangerous and armed and are fully supplied from abroad. The ammunition that the mattresses threw off - they threw off in the east and so far it does not pose a danger, but the supply of Tou2 through Turkey goes just the armies of conquest and should be our primary goal.
      1. voyaka uh
        voyaka uh 21 October 2015 15: 10
        "Recently, 2 Hezbollah brigades with armored vehicles arrived from Iraq"

        Hezbollah lives in Lebanon. They are infantrymen (good), armored vehicles (tanks) especially
        they don’t hold. Maybe you saw the arrival of the Iranian Corps of the revolution watchmen?

        A successful offensive requires a 3-fold numerical superiority. A lot of shells.
        And you counted as many as eight blows ... Somehow the success of all the blows was immediately dubious.
        1. g1v2
          g1v2 21 October 2015 15: 34
          There are not exactly 2 Hezbollah brigades from Iraq. There were dozens of Hezbollah flags. Tanks and ours and Abrams. Hezbollah has long stepped over the borders of Lebanon and has become an international force. Near Aleppo, there are xer and Shiites from Afghanistan, by the way. The Syrians at first themselves attacked and occupied several NPs, but then the Babakhs reinforced from the Idlib with a large number of anti-terrorist units and repulsed part of the NP. After that, one of the hez brigades was sent to the counterattack and she repulsed all the lost np and took another couple. Now it is the hezahs who are leading the offensive towards al-hadera.
          1. voyaka uh
            voyaka uh 22 October 2015 09: 11
            "There is no exactly 2 Hezbollah brigades from Iraq" ///

            You were right. I answered you in PM.
        2. avt
          avt 21 October 2015 15: 35
          Quote: voyaka uh
          "Recently, 2 Hezbollah brigades with armored vehicles arrived from Iraq"

          Say thank you for not being from Mars, well, after watching the movie, Mars Attacks wassat
          Quote: voyaka uh
          Have you seen the arrival of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps?

          The commander of the IRGC is already in Suria and, in general, it is no secret that, unlike the beginning of events, when the Iranians went to the holy places for Shiites on a pilgrimage, they are quite openly fighting and do not hide that there are not a hundred others there. So this muu-wise author in general practically offers to send Iranians there with all the guts!
          Quote: voyaka uh
          A successful offensive requires a 3-fold numerical superiority.

          Come on ! Not World War II. It would be quite sufficient for an advantage in heavy weapons, naturally, with its proper use. Kurds out in the north with a terrible shortage were not just heavy, just small arms and were beaten off under Turkish bombing. Advisers are needed to prepare work in specific conditions, artillery again. Here's another interesting - in the video I almost did not see the use of grenade launchers and AGS in general. Is it really not?
      2. mikh-korsakov
        mikh-korsakov 21 October 2015 16: 40
        I quote: Recently 2 Hezbollah brigades with armored vehicles arrived from Iraq ... I looked at the map and did not understand. Suppose there were two Hezbollah brigades in Iraq, which I personally doubt. In order for them to arrive from Iraq, which, moreover, is under ISIS in the areas adjacent to Syria, they had to pass through the Anbar province of Iraq, which is under ISIS, and the entire desert part of Syria. Two brigades with tanks are not a needle, and besides, they need to be refueled somewhere, the scale of such a "walk" would be comparable to the Kovpak raid.
        1. g1v2
          g1v2 21 October 2015 17: 40
          Okay, I'll try to upload one of the Hezbollah arrival videos on October 18th. Lately, something hasn’t worked out normally for me, but let's hope it works out now.
          1. g1v2
            g1v2 21 October 2015 17: 43
            I won’t search for the rest of the videos - anyone interested will find it. I came across 2 more videos, and on one hezy on Amer’s armor, but with its own flags.
          2. Bakht
            Bakht 22 October 2015 14: 34
            Judging by the comments under the video, this is the arrival of two tank brigades of the Iraqi army in SYRIA, the village of Abu Jrain, Aleppo province. The fact that they claim to be Kataib Hezbollah does not mean anything. Most likely these are Iraqi tanks.
        2. Bakht
          Bakht 21 October 2015 20: 18
          By God, he didn’t want to interfere. But such ....

          "Recently, 2 Hezbollah brigades with armored vehicles arrived from Iraq"

          Hezbollah is organized and operates in southern Lebanon. The presence of its troops in Iraq is a clear illiteracy of the writer. The presence of a brigade structure is possible, but unlikely. Mostly battalions of various numbers. Specializes in rocket attacks on northern Israel. The presence of tanks is not noted anywhere. So the source does not hold water.

          It is possible the arrival of the armored brigades of the Iranian army, or most likely the IRGC. The Guard Corps is just acting against ISIS in Syria. It’s hard to say whether they are operating in Iraq.
          1. g1v2
            g1v2 21 October 2015 23: 42
            I advise you to ask a question before getting involved in finger digging. Flags on the video are uniquely hezbollahs. For the overall development of hezbollah, more than a year has been fighting in Iraq against the IS and is well supplied from the Iraqi Shiite government and the ksir. And so that you understand what hezbollah is and its scale, I advise you to read about its training bases in Nicaragua. THIS BETWEEN OTHER LATIN AMERICA. MISSILE SHOTS OF ISRAEL IS A PASSED PHASE. In general, you want to - read it yourself on the topic, there are no nannies here.
            1. Bakht
              Bakht 22 October 2015 10: 02
              Flags can be anything. All reports of Hezbollah’s tank units in Iraq are the source of Israeli data. Yes, there are Hezbollah fighters in Iraq. And they are supplied by the Iranian authorities. But there are no tank Hezbollah brigades in nature. They simply do not exist. Can you distinguish one Arab from another? And under what flag are they fighting. Yes, even under a skull with bones.

              According to the latest Israeli data, Abrams tanks appeared in the arsenal of Hezbollah units in Iraq. America supplies Hezbollah with modern weapons through Iran ... Hold me three .... Nasrallah fights in ecstasy.


              o-battle-video / #
              1. Bakht
                Bakht 22 October 2015 10: 05
                Full of videos. American tanks flying the flag of Hezbollah. And the M113 and a bunch of brand new jeeps.

    3. Leks69Rus
      Leks69Rus 21 October 2015 17: 20
      Are all such reasoned experts gathered here? The article is good in my opinion, the arguments are given and in general, everything is correct. There is a civil war in Syria, mainly by irregular militants, the main strongholds are cities, large cities where they are dug in, buried in the ground. Have unlimited supplies and support from Turkey and other allies. What did the experience of recent wars teach us? Is the United States coped with the Taliban in Afghanistan, they’ve been fighting there for more than 10 years, and how the Taliban were there. This is despite the fact that nobody supplies them there, Russia or some other leading and rich country does not stand behind them. And here behind the fighters' backs almost all the countries of the region, even though they are six of the USA, but they have money and weapons. So there will be no victorious offensive by Assad’s army to the borders of Turkey. For this victory to be ensured, concentration and preparation, equipment, tools, and people are needed. Consider the formation of a whole small army consisting of at least 50 thousand. Rested, seasoned soldiers fully armed. Well, or the direct intervention of our ground forces and Iran. And so the task of our VKS is to provide psychological support and confidence to the Assad soldiers. Remove from the agenda the creation of a no-fly zone and tame unbelted Turks. From a military point of view, there will only be stabilization of the front, well, perhaps a strategic city or area will be captured. But Assad has no strength to attack on all fronts.
  3. Riv
    Riv 21 October 2015 14: 22
    The author has problems with logic. If field artillery played a decisive role in the offensive, then why increase the air group? Airbase is one. More planes than with it already takes off, will not be able to take off. Wouldn't it be better to fit vehicles with shells and a tanker with fuel?
  4. shinobi
    shinobi 21 October 2015 14: 23
    Borders need to be closed, financing channels. Without this, the Syrian army will gradually grind everyone.
  5. mishastich
    mishastich 21 October 2015 14: 23
    Only not in Hamas, but in Hezbollah.
  6. V.ic
    V.ic 21 October 2015 14: 24
    To keep an eye on the places where the American "aid" was dropped and to "spill" American parcels with our aviation.
    WE ARE MAKING 21 October 2015 14: 29
    I agree that it is necessary to actively help further! This is our security, the reputation of the country and military equipment, future economic interests.
  8. starriuy
    starriuy 21 October 2015 14: 34
    In one, the author is right - so far no tangible results have been seen ...
    1. blizart
      blizart 21 October 2015 15: 02
      Quote: starriuy
      In one, the author is right - so far no tangible results have been seen ...

      The technique of war has reached unprecedented heights, and without the infantry, still nothing. How many of these "deserted" doctrines have been in history, but as it comes to practice, come here grimy infantryman - "handyman war". The author says the same thing. So before us (or you) is again a classic example of being drawn into war. After all, having said A, you need to say B. Advisers, then "spetsura", then ... So, or something like that, it was in Vietnam and Afghanistan. You have a hard choice to make.
    2. mihasik
      mihasik 21 October 2015 15: 09
      Quote: starriuy
      In one, the author is right - so far no tangible results have been seen ...

      And what did you want to free all of Syria in a week? That in Chechnya then dangled for four years, and not dispersed everyone in a week? Realistically assess the situation, this is not World War II, to fight with armies.
    3. fif21
      fif21 21 October 2015 15: 34
      Quote: starriuy
      tangible results on the fronts are not yet visible ...
      You need a strong ground grouping, for an offensive, an ideal ratio of 3 to 1, plus powerful fire support. Aviation plays an important role, but not the main one. In the first place comes the mobility of Assad's troops and competent planning of operations. They surrounded, destroyed, cleaned out. Squeezing out the enemy leads to the fact that 30-2 companies will "chase" after a mobile gang of 3 people, falling into ambushes and traps. Is there really no one to share the experience of Chechnya? IS is forced to wage a semi-guerrilla war, the advantage is on the side of Assad's regular army.
      1. Leks69Rus
        Leks69Rus 21 October 2015 17: 37
        Have you seen the size of Chechnya? the population is just over a million. The task was much simpler.
        1. fif21
          fif21 21 October 2015 19: 29
          Quote: Leks69Rus
          Have you seen the size of Chechnya? the population is just over a million. The task was much simpler.
          And the experience of conducting military operations in flat and mountainous areas against gangs does not depend on the size of the territory. From Grachevsky, I’ll take Grozny with a company of airborne forces to a military operation according to all the laws of military science carried out by Troshev and Shamanov.
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  9. mihasik
    mihasik 21 October 2015 14: 34
    For the required operational capabilities of the aviation group, its number must be increased in the near future to 100–140 aircraft participating in attacks on ground targets.

    And for such a number of aircraft, there are enough explored targets, the author did not think about it? Is there that all of Syria alone scouts and bundles of intelligence bring? Or will all this "arava" wait for another "mujahid" to be scouted for them, and they will bomb the barn in which he hid with the whole "herd"? Or maybe just how the Americans would raze everything to the ground without looking? There must be sufficiency. If the grouping is not increased, then there are enough flyers for the near future. What to raise panic?
  10. Andryukha G
    Andryukha G 21 October 2015 14: 36
    In short, the gangs in Syria as in Chechnya - you won’t defeat the bombardment, you need trained and trained troops of all kinds.
  11. Altona
    Altona 21 October 2015 14: 37
    As for the weakness of the ground grouping, the author is right ... the Syrian army is forced to act in three main directions, and the strength will not be enough ... Both human and material ... We still need to give old equipment to them, and 55th tanks and guns, and shells of course ...
    1. Black Colonel
      Black Colonel 21 October 2015 17: 20
      As I recall the footage of live reports from the late 80s from the cutting (storage) sites of T-54 and T-55, my soul aches. How would those tanks be useful! Humpback, ... adla, could just give African and Middle Eastern friends. But no, you need to show off in front of the Western "new-found friends".
  12. avt
    avt 21 October 2015 14: 46
    Some kind of nonsense, not an article negative Kapraz raged
    For attacks on the infrastructure of the Islamists, Tu-22M3 can be involved.
    Yeah - as in Afghanistan, 9 ton concrete bombs fool In general, the captain of the first rank evidence would write at once all Wishlist including the introduction of troops.
    Quote: mihasik
    And for so many planes, enough proven goals, the author did not think?

    He does not even think about how to ensure the work of such a group, including the Tu-22M, and you want him to look for goals as well.
    It is worth trying to attract Iranian air forces to attacks. The latter are quite numerous, and the aircraft they are armed with, albeit very outdated, such as the F4E Phantom 2
    Not only did the Iranians advise Assad in one and a half two years to this senility, but also give aviation. That is, in fact, to land the Iranian Air Force in Suria fool Or maybe even immediately let them clash with the Jews in the air? wassat The march in these new-style LLC Geoacademies deprives the military of the rest of the mind. You could not write an article, but simply sprinkle with slogans of the Trotskyist type - "On the woe of all bourgeoisie, we will fan the world fire" wassatThat's interesting - this patriot really does not understand that the result of such Wishlist will be the involvement of Turkey, the regular army and the bombing of the Israeli Air Force? That is, in fact, the long-standing dream of the USA will come true?
  13. HollyGremlin
    HollyGremlin 21 October 2015 14: 58
    I sympathize with Syria, but the population located in the occupied territories by terrorists is lost. They are still alive, but there is almost no chance of escape. Terrorists always take hostages with them to the grave. The only chance to save Syria is blood - not targeted punches, but carpet. Not special operations in cities, but the burning of the territory. I would like otherwise, but against rats in tunnels sponsored by the United States this is the only chance.
  14. Geosun
    Geosun 21 October 2015 15: 03
    It would be possible to give the Syrians tanks that remained in the Crimea, but who will repair them?
  15. extremall
    extremall 21 October 2015 15: 04
    The percentages with which the author operates))) were very touched by the ease and ease. Although the feeling that the ground forces of the SAR are not effective enough against the backdrop of the actions of our aviation, I share. And so the article is demagogy, not an analysis of the situation.
  16. pinhead
    pinhead 21 October 2015 15: 12
    about the TU-22 is a good idea ...
    1. Sauron80
      Sauron80 22 October 2015 10: 06
      Yes, there it is, TU-160 is necessary, they can’t be without it. And you also need to plant the whole Syria with Poplars - let them bloom))
  17. Bakht
    Bakht 21 October 2015 15: 17
    Some points of the article are perplexing. The war is not won by airstrikes and it is immediately proposed to increase the air group. To base aviation on the airfields of Iran is also that political hemorrhoids. Any flights from the Russian Caspian Sea are fraught with complications. Neither Azerbaijan nor Georgia have yet expressed a desire to give such permission. And Turkey will certainly not allow it. The offensive in the 2-3 MAIN directions - was this taught in the Soviet General Staff?

    It is necessary to fight on earth and to fight the Syrians. No one else. Kurds will only conquer their independent Kurdistan.

    Conclusion - the preparation of the Syrian army (I hope it is already) and the saturation of its materiel and ammunition. Costs, expenses ... Better than blood, but the economy is also not rubber.

    The Syrian express works. But just as the work of the Tokyo Express was disrupted at one time, so now the bottleneck is the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. Any political complication with Turkey and the VKS group will remain on a starvation diet. One transport aircraft does not solve problems.

    In general, everything is like in textbooks "While amateurs draw arrows on maps, professionals are studying transport opportunities."
    1. snifer
      snifer 21 October 2015 15: 55
      I completely agree with you that increasing the air group does not make sense. The Syrian army needs to stop (and should not do it at all) to advance on the entire front. It is necessary to concentrate forces on the priority direction. In other sectors, switch to active defense. Artillery, artillery and again artillery. imho i see
      1. Bakht
        Bakht 21 October 2015 16: 15
        Although everyone suffers from the idea of ​​giving birth to "wars of a new generation", Donbass and Syria show that there is nothing fundamentally new yet. As in the Great Patriotic War, and now it is necessary to "overwhelm the enemy with shells." Fire strike and mother infantry. And let the Anglo-Saxons play in airplanes. In the end, carpet bombing is their strong point.

        Of course, airplanes are needed. But more front-line aviation and in modern conditions attack helicopters. It is fraught with losses.

        Didn’t pay attention to the photo how B. Asad meets V. Putin? In the background are the key ministers: Lavrov and Shoigu. Do not go to a fortuneteller - it’s clear what they will be talking about. On enhancing the participation of Russian troops and on the political consequences.
      2. garmonist
        garmonist 22 October 2015 03: 58
        Apparently they are approaching where the enemy does not yet have a large number of Tou-2 and other surprises. Where enemy well-equipped reserves appear, the offensive quickly decays. There is a clear lack of modern technology among the Syrians. Solar circuits, terminators, boomerangs and armats, even in small numbers, could quickly turn the tide. And with the t-55 in modern warfare you won’t get much.
    2. NyeMoNik70
      NyeMoNik70 22 October 2015 00: 26
      "Any political complications with Turkey and the VKS grouping will remain on a starvation diet." Oh, our Azerbaijanis are such Turks. And what will the Muslim brothers do? Will they give up? By the way, are you already Armenians "peremoglu"? One awkward movement and erdogania will break. Those wishing to live. hi
  18. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 21 October 2015 15: 32
    That’s the reason for Assad’s visit to Moscow.
  19. Oleko
    Oleko 21 October 2015 16: 01
    It was not just that Assad arrived in Moscow. Apparently, the article reflects certain realities that have developed as a result of the actions of our Aerospace Forces and the Assad army in Syria at the moment. The article can be roughly divided into 2 parts: analytical and recommendatory. It was the recommendation part that met a large number of well-grounded, for the most part, objections. I put a plus for analytics. It's still better than reading in MM about the "mass exodus" of militants without beards and in a woman's dress, showing pictures of shaving machines and curly residues on the ground.
  20. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 21 October 2015 16: 03
    The operation of the Aerospace Forces (VKS) of Russia in Syria is unlikely to last more than one year. This, according to Interfax, said the Syrian ambassador in Moscow, Riyad Haddad. Http://
  21. raid14
    raid14 21 October 2015 16: 04
    In Russia, there were several thousand obsolete T-72, T-64, T-55 tanks on conservation, I hope Serdyukov did not send them for scrap, they would be very useful in Syria in the conditions of heavy combat losses of armored vehicles.
    Until they block the borders with Iraq and Turkey, from where the flow of weapons and replenishment of the militants mainly comes, there will be no radical change in the hostilities. It is worth recalling the experience of Afghanistan in the destruction of caravans.
    Also, the United States strives to "shit on sneakers" by dropping "moderate" weapons from aircraft, which suggests that they should accompany and track the flights of their military transport aircraft with the subsequent destruction of "gifts."
  22. Gardamir
    Gardamir 21 October 2015 16: 08
    Hello, comedian generals. Just like a year ago, you were dissatisfied with articles about New Russia, admired Strelkov, and now scolding Girkin. Now you are analyzing events in Syria. Correctly, Novorossia is flourishing and no one has leaked it. Only the experience of the past year tells me that all your indignation about the article of a wretched egg is not worth it.
  23. lopvlad
    lopvlad 21 October 2015 16: 40
    The time to build up an aviation strike group has long come. Since it is necessary to increase the intensity of airstrikes.

    this is if you bombard the territory with carpet bombing in the hope that many enemies will die, and if it is targeted with multiple data checks, then there will be plenty of those aircraft that are in excess.
    I think everyone noticed how the number of hits of the Russian aerospace forces varies (when 80 hits per day and when less than 30 hits)?
    We do not bomb the desert and our planes do not chase every single terrorist with a precision missile.
  24. cniza
    cniza 21 October 2015 17: 04
    Quote: shinobi
    Borders need to be closed, financing channels. Without this, the Syrian army will gradually grind everyone.

    Right, but at first financing channels and further it will be easier to do the rest.
  25. mikh-korsakov
    mikh-korsakov 21 October 2015 17: 19
    The dear lady chirped over the zombie man that Comrade Assad personally came to thank Russia for his support (for some reason, not by phone) and immediately left. It follows from the picture that a rather specific composition of comrades came to receive gratitude from our friend: in addition to GDP and Lavrov, so was Shoigu, the chief of the General Staff, and Fradkov. I think that the conversation just went about solving the problems that the author wrote about. Indeed. I would not exaggerate the stupidity of American generals and downplay the capabilities of American aviation, which in a year I DIDN'T BE ABLE to achieve anything substantial against ISIS. This in my opinion only speaks of that. that modern precision weapons are effective against the regular army. That is why our attacks were carried out mainly in the north. where Turkish and American fosterlings, who received training and the structure of a regular army from them, are fighting. For this, a civilized community poured mud on us. Now the situation has changed for Comrade further offensives. Assad needs intelligence on the earth, equipment and instructors, for which he flew in. Syria is one of the few countries. who supported us in the Crimea, they will be helped.
    1. lopvlad
      lopvlad 21 October 2015 17: 48
      Quote: mikh-korsakov
      the stupidity of American generals and downplaying the capabilities of American aviation, which in the year failed to achieve anything substantial against ISIS.

      everything is very simple. The US had a goal not to defeat ISIS but rather to give it the opportunity to develop and gain strength.
      For them, the problem is Assad and not ISIS.
      For example, I am 100% sure that the United States thought out the campaign of terrorists in Iraq specifically for ISIS to have serious artillery, heavy armored vehicles and other things that cannot be discreetly transmitted over the ground or dropped from a transporter.
      The United States single-handedly managed this entire zoo of militants on two boards (the territory of Syria and Iraq) in agreement with regional players (Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel, etc.) who in return promised to cut territories and influences on the game boards after the overthrow of Assad.

      And then Russia intervened in all this, the calculated party collapsed and a bullet loomed in front of the regional players. Some of the smarter players came to Moscow to negotiate and those who were more stupid began to threaten Russia stupidly (like Turkey).
  26. Indifferent
    Indifferent 21 October 2015 17: 51
    As for Assad's trip to Moscow, the main thing that he had to say and he said this to the whole world is that he is for a post-war political settlement. This is very important for the opposition forces, which have not yet been "tickled" too much. So that they will not continue to act especially militarily. I'm talking about moderate opposition. And mainly for the Kurds. They count on autonomy within Syria.
    As for the captain of the 1st rank Sivkov and his article, it is clear that the sailor climbed "into the wrong steppe." Only a naive person can seriously talk about American aid in the amount of 50 tons, which fell on parachutes "in the wrong direction." 50 tons with that intensity of fighting is half a day of war for one good battalion.
  27. Gray 43
    Gray 43 21 October 2015 18: 06
    It seems that our videoconferencing in Syria was not tasked with winning the war in two weeks))) the bandits are now forced to crumble into smaller gangs to make it difficult to detect them from the air, but despite this they represent a serious opponent, especially for the tired Syrian army
  28. Oleko
    Oleko 21 October 2015 18: 24
    [quote] [Russian pilots participating in the operation in Syria talked about their signs and rituals, which they always perform before departure, RIA Novosti reports. One of the signs is never to be photographed before departure, so that the photograph is not the last.

    Another sign is not to put on new things for a serious flight - only old, proven ones, said one of the pilots.

    Before departure, the pilots go round their car clockwise, as though “greeting” it, touching their nose, wings, bombs and rockets. “There is no need for this - our machines are tested by professional technicians. This is a pure tradition, which goes back to the old time of rotorcraft, when the pilot himself checked the vibration of his aircraft, ”says the pilot.

    On professional slang, the pilots call this process “stroking” - from the outside it looks touching, as if the pilot asks his “iron horse” not to let him down.

    To exclude the notorious human factor, the pilot must be rested and well-fed. “We live in special modules for two or three people. The conditions are modest, we don’t even have a TV, but we only have enough. The main thing is to get enough sleep, because often the fulfillment of the task or his life depends on the pilot’s reaction and attention, ”the pilots say.

    / Quote]

    Not a topic, but just interesting
    1. Just BB
      Just BB 24 October 2015 17: 52
      The conditions are modest, we don’t even have a TV, but we only have enough.

      I will reveal a "terrible secret" - there he (TV) is not needed, because for some reason our TV satellites are not "tuned in" to this territory request
  29. Clueless
    Clueless 21 October 2015 18: 28
    Reading such articles, it is not a good idea - what kind of manic idea is to drive as much of our aircraft into cockroach into the darkness as possible, leaving Russia proper without cover? Everything is very vulnerable there, if some dirty trick happens, we will lose a very significant part of the country's air wing.

    So there are enough of those planes that are there, but I think they provide the equipment there, on ships there is no current fuel and missiles carry.
  30. Vladimir Lipov
    Vladimir Lipov 21 October 2015 20: 06
    The article is similar to a compilation from Western cm and.))) There is no sense of a deep analysis of the situation here.
  31. gammipapa
    gammipapa 21 October 2015 20: 42
    I’ve been watching Sivkov’s videos for a long time ... he talks a lot, rarely guesses, but really, really wants to be noticed and put back into the regular army.
  32. Northern Fleet
    Northern Fleet 21 October 2015 21: 01
    What is there to analyze, there is no sense in the destruction of 100500 ISIS headquarters per day, so Assad soldiers flew in to ask for it and a no brainer.
  33. kenig1
    kenig1 21 October 2015 21: 07
    A sharp flight to the guria
  34. xin-l
    xin-l 21 October 2015 22: 10
    Quote: i80186
    And I think that citizen Sivkov, who is not my friend for sure, is telling another lie. For example, he stated three weeks ago that it was impossible to provide our air group with ammunition and fuel in principle. He said that they could make 50 flights a day for a maximum of two weeks. And now he says that we have to put thousands of tons of ammunition and hundreds of pieces of equipment there. I wonder how? Indeed, three weeks ago we could not bring fuel for the unfortunate 30 aircraft.
    About 50 tons of ammunition, which were armed with 150 militants, he absolutely pleased me. Here is the depth of the analysis, where. Three hundred grams of ammunition were handed out to everyone, and now they will win.

    I also remember this Sivkov from a week ago scenario that they say that our weapons are not high-precision, the old one and the USA were bombed and bombed there, and you see what the results are, but we decided to take it abruptly. The official statistics were given by how much the US bombed there, according to these statistics, there would have been no Syria left, not even some IS and others like it. And in general, why did we get in there against us all to take up arms and the 3rd World War will come. Moreover, he did analyzes without knowing either the region or the prevailing local political situation. Yes, the offensive is slow, but we must not forget that the militants dug in well there and the fact that ours use concrete bomb aerial bombs gives a chance that the terrorists will be soaked even underground. Of course, it would not hurt to have more airplanes participating there, so that bandits could not even regroup. But there is no need to whine. Nobody was counting on quick results here.
  35. Vanogog
    Vanogog 21 October 2015 22: 21
    the article, apparently, reflects really the state of things. We have a huge number of bombs in stocks that are subject to destruction. Syria is a good training ground for their liquidation
  36. Yak28
    Yak28 22 October 2015 06: 30
    It seems to me that Syria does not have high chances to get out of war and chaos. The first is the insufficient number of our planes, the Syrian army is exhausted and small in comparison with the militants, and there is no one to fight besides a handful of Syrians, at the same time, the number of militants is constantly growing, the third armaments of the army are morally and physically obsolete equipment. No one needs strong Syria in the region, so Turkey or Qatar can send troops to Syria to defend the supposedly moderate opposition, and the Syrian army will come to an end. So if you look at things without euphoria, the picture looms not entirely rosy.
    1. Susul
      Susul 22 October 2015 09: 34
      The Syrian army has little choice; they either fight or cut them out
      There is still a mobilization reserve of more than a few million
      (the population of Syria to this day is more than 20 million, and more than 80% of them support Assad and be protected by the Syrian armed forces)
      Most likely, the fate of Israel awaits Syria - total militarization
  37. Susul
    Susul 22 October 2015 09: 31
    It’s worth looking at the technology that Assad’s army is fighting, so you want to cry!
    Syrian armed forces are in dire need not only of armored personnel carriers (even though they were fitted), but also of heavier equipment and whales for modernization so far available.
    We have a lot of PR for the BMPT "Terminator", so they would send a dozen cars for running-in!
    1. Just BB
      Just BB 24 October 2015 18: 04
      Syria needs many things now ... Just look at the map: who is in its neighbors. Now you can recall some well-known Russian (not Russian) surnames ... "You will understand everything, you will see everything yourself" (and the words, as they say, cannot be thrown out of the song).
      It was somehow - half a year they took the Syrian equipment for repair (the issue was resolved and agreed at all levels, but there were forces to tighten for such a time)