“You do not need to conquer. You will free the land yourself. ”
More than a year has passed since the time of the All-Russian Population Census-2010, and Rosstat is still unable to sum up its results in many of the most important indicators. Yes, in March of this year, we were announced (in a preliminary, however, the order) the first figures - in terms of total population, its sex composition and urbanization (see the reference). These data (as well as current reports of Rosstat and other departments), by the way, gave the Russian authorities grounds to talk about the outlined "positive trends" - they are reducing, they say, the overall rate of loss of population by Russia, life expectancy is decreasing, mortality is growing, etc. .
But statistics is a crafty thing (we already talked about some of its “quirks” yesterday). And not by chance, apparently, the Rosstat will not in any way sum up the results of the census on such an indicator as the structure of the national composition of the population - the authorities here cannot say anything comforting to the majority of the country's citizens. After all, the indigenous Russia, the Russians, the very ones whose ancestors, in fact, created Great Russia, continue to die out rapidly (for more information about the demographic situation in our country, see our front project).
The terrible quantitative indicators of this process were presented at a round table in October in the State Duma on the topic “Russian people in the Russian Federation: status, problems and prospects” Andrei Pshenitsyn (his speech published the publication “Patriot”).
According to the results of the 2002 census in the historically Russian regions of the Russian Federation - the Central, Northwestern and Volga Federal Districts - the 21 region was recorded, where the proportion of the Russian population was more than 90% of the population: Vologodskaya (96,6%), Tambov (96,5%), Bryansk ( 96,3%), Lipetsk and Kursk (by 95,8%), Oryol (95,3%), Tula (95,2%), Yaroslavl (95,1%), Nizhny Novgorod (95,0%), Vladimirskaya (94,75%), Ryazan (94,5%), Pskov (94,3%), Arkhangelskaya (94,2%), Voronezhskaya (94,1%), Novgorodskaya (93,9%), Ivanovskaya (93,7%), Kaluga (93,5%), Smolenskaya (93,4%), Belgorodskaya (92,9%), TV rskaya (92,5%), Moscow (91,0%).
In his yearbooks of the Rosstat, he continues, he reports indicators of fertility, mortality, natural increase / natural loss (extinction) in each region of the Russian Federation. For calculating the reference point of the extinction figures of the Russian population, the expert uses the following method: among the listed regions, three are taken with the maximum and three with the minimum indicators of natural loss-extinction (excess of mortality over birth rate). Calculates the average, which is multiplied by the current number of Russian people. The result is the reference point for the extinction of the Russian people in a particular year, the expert believes.
According to the 12 census of January 1989, he continues, the number of Russian people in the RSFSR was 119,9 million people. In 1989-1990 and in the first half of 1991, there was a fading natural increase in the Russian people, but at the same time the mass return of Russians to Russia that had begun increased the number of Russians in the RSFSR to at least 121 million people.
However, in the middle of 1991, the Russian death rate exceeded the Russian birth rate, and the Russian people began to die out. According to the 10 census of October 2002, the Russians in the Russian Federation have only 115,9 million left.
Migration gain over 1989-2002 Rosstat showed in 5,5 million people (entered - 11 million, left - 5,5 million). Obviously, this is the minimum guideline for the number of migration gains of the Russian people during this period. Still, the Russians in those years mainly drove into Russia, and did not leave. Based on these figures, the expert roughly determines the current number of the Russian people for a particular year. And discloses in detail the calculations for several years.
1995 year. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year showed: Pskov region (minus 13,1 on 1000 population), Tverskaya (minus 12,3) and Tula (minus 12,1). Minimum: Belgorod (minus 5,4), Bryansk (minus 6,7) and Orlovskaya (minus 7,4). Thus, the average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population turned out to be in 1995 minus 9,5 per 1000 population. For the whole of the Russian Federation, this figure of 1995 of the year was minus 5,7 on 1000.
Suppose (the word “suppose” used by the author here is clearly a stone in the Rosstat garden. - KM.RU), the expert continues that the number of Russian people in 1995 was 119 million. Hence the reference point of the extinction of the Russian people that year turns out to be minus 1 130 000. The total extinction rate in the Russian Federation was minus 840 thousand. It turns out that the natural increase (excess of birth rate over death rate) among Muslims of Russia and all newcomers from external migration was about plus 1995 thousand in 290 year.
The latter should be clarified, the expert notes. With the full-scale extinction of the Russian people and the steady natural growth of the indigenous Muslims of Russia (God forbid to them!) Everything is clear. All the other peoples of Russia, historically fundamental to it, have a total fertility / mortality ratio of about “zero” (based on the official chronicles of Rosstat). And this total figure practically does not affect the total indicator of natural loss (extinction) in the Russian Federation, which publishes the most honest Rosstat, the expert notes.
But here the natural increase among the newcomers from external migration, he continues, is a very separate issue! After all, mainly young and middle-aged people go to Russia, as they are easier to climb. And for them, life in Russia continues in its natural manifestations: they, in particular, give birth to children. And because of their young and middle age, “external” migrants almost do not die, because their older generation remains at historical homeland. That is, this rapidly growing population of the Russian Federation has the same rapidly growing natural growth.
What are the parameters of external migration? Since 2004, the expert writes, I patiently, six times, asked the higher authorities of the Russian Federation about this. Finally, 21 February 2011 of the year received a letter in its address from the Federal Migration Service from 08.02.2011 #MCN-3 / 2383, which was signed by the head of the Organization and Analysis Department, Ms. E.A. Radochina. And it contains border control data on the total entry into Russia and the total exit from it for the 2005-2010. I quote, writes Pshenitsyn, only one paragraph of this wonderful letter:
"2005 year. The total number of completed migration card forms received from border agencies of the FSB of Russia is 25 506 720; including: entry parts - 14 226 286, exit parts - 11 280 434.
From these data of the FSB Border Guard Service, it follows that the migration increase (excess of entry into Russia over exit from it) in 2005 was 2 945 852 (14 226 286 - 11 280 434). And Rosstat informed us, reminds Pshenitsyn, only about 107 432 (177 entered 230, 69 798 left) migrants. Hence, the hidden (not reflected by Rosstat reports) part of the migration increment was 2 838 418 (2 945 852 - 107 432). As they say in Odessa: "Feel two big differences!"
The specified letter of the FMS directly informs that the actual (!) Migration increase recorded by the Frontier Service of the FSB of Russia for 2005-2010 was recorded. compiled 12 888 774. And Rosstat informed us that the long-term migration increase registered (!) By the territorial bodies of the FMS for 2005-2010 amounted to only 1 127 328. Thus, the unregistered, and therefore the hidden part of the migration increase for 2005-2010. (not reflected by the Chronicles of Rosstat) amounted to 11 761 446 people.
If we take the average annual migration increase for 2 million, the expert continues, then for 1992-2011. Migration increase (excess of entry into Russia over leaving it) was at least 40 million! This is the annual migration growth caused by the rapidly growing natural growth of this population group in the Russian Federation, as mentioned in several paragraphs above. And Rosstat also shows that the migration increase for 1992-2011. made up just a little over 6,5 million
We fix once again. With a general extinction rate for the Russian Federation in 1995, 840 thousand and the reference point of the extinction figures of the Russian people in that year - the “minus” of 1 130 000 natural increase (birth rate over death rate) among Muslims of Russia and all alien peoples from external migration in 1995 approximately 290 thousand
2000 year. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year showed: Pskov region (minus 14,9 per 1000 population), Tula (minus 14,2) and Tverskaya (minus 14,1). Minimum: Vologodskaya (minus 7,2), Belgorod (minus 7,5) and Lipetsk (minus 8,7). The average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population turned out to be in 2000 minus 11,1 per 1000 population. By the way, this indicator 2000 of the year for the whole of the Russian Federation amounted to minus 6,6 on 1000.
Suppose, continues to Pshenitsyn, that the number of Russian people in 2000 was 117 million people. Hence, the reference figure for the extinction of the Russian people in that year is minus 1 300 000. The total extinction rate in the Russian Federation was minus 958,5 thousand. It turns out that the natural increase (excess of birth rate over death rate) among Muslims of Russia and all newcomers from external migration was about plus 2000 thousand in 340 year.
2005 year. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year showed: Pskov region (minus 15,7 per 1000 population), Tula (minus 14,2) and Tverskaya (minus 13,7). Minimum: Belgorod (minus 7,1), Vologda (minus 8,3) and Lipetsk (minus 8,6). The average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population turned out to be in 2005 minus 11,25 per 1000 population. By the way, this indicator 2005 of the year for the whole of the Russian Federation amounted to minus 5,9 on 1000.
Suppose an expert argues that the number of Russian people in 2005 was 114 million. Hence, the reference point of the extinction of the Russian people that year is minus 1 285 000. The overall rate of extinction in the Russian Federation was minus 846,5 thousand. It turns out that the natural increase in Muslims of Russia and all newcomers from external migration in 2005 was about plus 440 thousand.
2010 year. The maximum extinction coefficients in this year showed: Pskov region (minus 10,5 per 1000 population), Tula (minus 9,3) and Tverskaya (minus 9,0). Minimum: Belgorod (minus 3,8), Vologda (minus 3,85) and Lipetsk (minus 5,3). The average extinction rate for regions where the Russian share is more than 90% of the population turned out to be in 2010 minus 7,0 per 1000 population. By the way, this indicator 2010 of the year for the whole of the Russian Federation was only minus 1,7 on 1000.
Suppose the expert continues that the number of Russian people in 2010 was 111 million. Hence, the reference point of the extinction of the Russian people that year is minus 770 000. The total extinction rate in the Russian Federation was minus 240 thousand. It turns out that the natural increase in Muslims of Russia and all newcomers from external migration was approximately plus 2010 thousand in 530. Pay attention, the author notes, how this figure is steadily growing!
As a result of all calculations, it turns out that for 1992-2011. in Russia, an estimated 22,5 million Russians have died out! Not dead - this is not a mortality indicator, and did not die, namely, it died out! And not the average "dear Russians", which does not know any science, namely - Russian!
At the same time, I hope, Pshenitsyn notes, that in Russia as a whole, the demography of the Russian people is still better than its average in the historically Russian regions, in which the Russian share is more than 90% of the population. But even in this case there is every reason to assert that the figure of the extinction of the Russian people during the 1992-2011 years. mark in 20 million has already passed!
Summing up. Over 1992-2011 in present-day Russia, the general indicator of natural loss-extinction (excess of mortality over birth rate) was, according to Rosstat's “data”, minus 13,5 million people. The historically indigenous for Russia Muslims (may God bless them!) And all alien peoples from external migration show a natural increase of at least 6,5 million people. And the Russian people became extinct by no less than 20 million.
Such is the Russian share in the “new democratic” Russia, the author concludes.
Well, as an illustration of their calculations, the publication that published them gives the following diagram:
True, the illustration clearly demonstrates the dynamics of the reduction in the total (and not just the Russian share) of the population of Russia. But if we now know how much more rapidly - against the background of the general population - it is the Russian population of Russia that is dying out, then the picture emerges even more terrible.
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