Syria has a chance to get out of war and chaos

The last days are marked by the rushing of the American administration, which has not yet decided on how to maintain relations with Russia to resolve the Syrian crisis. On the one hand, the growing threat of terrorism poses a danger to the whole world, including the United States. On the other hand, Russia's initiative to suppress the combat capabilities of terrorist groups in Syria for the first time in many years lowered the United States to the level of an international participant, secondary in influence on the conflict. With this in Washington can not accept.


Syria has a chance to get out of war and chaos


"Red Line" in front of the Western coalition

Experts note that the United States, as well as their allies, is not able to work out an answer for Moscow on Syria, in which the Western goals of changing the regime of Bashar al-Assad would remain unchanged. And the main thing is the preservation of the dominant role of the United States in resolving the Syrian conflict and in the fight against international terrorism.

Criticism of the actions of the American authorities began to sound in the United States itself. At the end of last week, for example, National Interest magazine publisher Dmitry Symes and executive director of the Washington Center for National Interest Paul Saunders published in the electronic version of the publication an article expressing clear dissatisfaction with the policy of the US administration on the Russian and Syrian tracks.

According to these authoritative American experts, President Barack Obama demonstrates his weakness in Syria to the Allies, and the lack of political flexibility in Moscow. The reason for such harsh assessments was the refusal of the American authorities to accept in Washington a Russian delegation led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The authors of the article in National Interest called it "regrettable disregard for diplomacy."

The unwillingness to negotiate with Moscow and obsession with opposition to Vladimir Putin, according to these experts, deprives the United States of a chance to advance the US strategic goals in Syria.

As can be seen from this criticism, the discontent of the Americans is caused not by the fact that the Obama administration vaguely behaves in resolving the Syrian conflict, but that it misses the achievement of the strategic goals of the United States in the Middle East. Admittedly, these goals are quite different for the United States and Russia.

Recently, Vladimir Putin publicly defined the tasks of Russia in the Syrian conflict. In addition to the destruction of terrorist groups that pose a threat not only to Syria, but also to the world community, Russia's goal is to “stabilize the legitimate authority and create conditions for the search for political compromise.” “This is a healthy pragmatism,” explained the chief researcher at IMEMO, an orientalist George Mirsky, in an interview with Voice of America. - If Putin left Assad now, and ISIS captured Damascus, then the situation in Afghanistan would repeat the end of 80 - the beginning of 90 of the last century: then the Soviet army left, the Islamists broke into Kabul, for several years they killed each other, while the toughest The most radical of them, the Taliban, did not take power. So it would be here. ”

As American observers admit, the goals of the Western coalition are diametrically opposed to those of Russia - to bring the so-called moderate opposition to power in Syria. This was directly stated by the President of the United States in response to the above-mentioned statement by Vladimir Putin. Barack Obama noted that Russia does not make a difference between the militants of the Islamic State terrorist organization and the “moderate Sunni opposition, which aims at giving al-Assad power back!”.

These forces are actively supplied with weapons. The most famous recent episode was when the American military dropped more than 50 tons of aircraft from parasails to the militants opposing the Syrian army in the north of the country. weapons and ammunition. The cargoes are intended for "Syrian groups, whose leaders have been duly approved by the US administration and who are fighting against ISIS," said the representative of the Western coalition, Colonel of the US Armed Forces, Steve Warren.

It is unlikely that this clarification should be taken seriously, given history of the conflict, when the weapons supplied by the Assad opposition were soon found among the IS militants. There are no examples of this. That only costs the delivery by the American authorities of thousands of Toyota pickups to the forces opposing Assad. Today, these machines with large-caliber machine guns mounted on them have completely passed over to the terrorists.

Now, with the appearance of the aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the conflict zone, the line has reached the man-portable air defense systems. “There is evidence that terrorists are attempting to acquire Western-style MANPADS in neighboring states in the region,” TASS quoted the words of Russia's deputy foreign minister for countering terrorism, Oleg Syromolotov. The high-ranking diplomat stressed that “the delivery of MANPADS to any of the terrorist groups in Syria would mean that the country that did this, in fact, sided with the“ terrorist international ”and would be viewed as direct complicity with all the ensuing consequences.

So the Russian Foreign Ministry has designated the “red line”, having crossed that, the states supporting the terrorists can receive, for example, a “gift” from the Caspian military flotilla or from somewhere else.

Syrian economy prepares for the world

Despite the sharp strengthening of the positions of Syrian government forces (as Western observers write, “there was an increase in at least one Kremlin”), international experts believe that the conflict cannot be resolved soon. The contradictions of groupings and spilled blood are not the best basis for excessive optimism. Meanwhile, people who are tired of war sincerely hope that the help that came from Russia will bring an end to civil confrontation.

Recently, talking about the restoration of the destroyed economy of Syria. According to the International Monetary Fund estimates for October 2015, compared with the pre-crisis period, it was halved. The IMF estimates only direct damage to 200 billion US dollars, and the number of refugees to 3,3 million people.

However, this is an incomplete picture. It gradually changes. Moreover, quite unexpectedly against the background of our usual telepictures with debris and destruction. For example, last year, despite active hostilities, Syria’s industry grew by a percent, while fixed investment amounted to more than 18 percent, and working capital of enterprises increased by almost 10 percent. Such data has recently been cited by the Russian economist and orientalist Said Gafurov.

These figures have caused the observers sincere surprise. It turns out that even during the war the Syrians continue to build. It is clear that we are mainly talking about the restoration work. For example, in the province of Damascus in the Saeed Zeinab area, four hotels, designed for 1300 tourists, were recently renovated. In the area of ​​Kuteif restored tourist complex. Perhaps over time, they will be in demand for external and domestic tourism, which Syria previously earned good money. Today, hotel facilities are used to accommodate refugees from war-torn areas.

Not lost and management structure. According to eyewitnesses, there is a bus service between the cities controlled by the Syrian government and the Islamists. Officials working in the territories occupied by the Islamic State terrorist group receive a salary from the government of Bashar al-Assad. They say that the Syrian president is striving to preserve the unity of the country. Moreover, because of the lack of their own personnel, the Islamists in the occupied cities are forced to rely on local employees. Some use it, receive money from both Damascus and Raqqa (the capital of the IG), which, however, does not change the essence of the picture.

To demonstrate the degree of government control over the country, Said Gafurov gives the following figures: from the 65 branches of the People's Credit Bank, which focuses on private lending, 48 is currently operating. According to Western data, a good borrower at the end of 2014, could get a credit line at 17% per annum.

Such measures support business. This summer, even in the capital of neighboring Lebanon, an industrial exhibition, Syria Fashion, was held. It was attended by 100 Syrian companies. They are not focused on exclusively Eastern fashion. Before the war, expensive brands placed production in Syria. These ties have largely collapsed, but the Syrian business began to rise. And not only in the textile sector. Once self-sufficient in the main types of agricultural products, for example, wheat, which was even exported, Syria is now restoring production in the agricultural sector. Capital newspapers are full of reports about the supply of grain to elevators in various provinces of the country. The bill went there for hundreds of thousands of tons.

Foreign investors, of course, are interested in the country's oil and gas industry. Our Stroytransgaz, a company from China, South Africa, and Venezuela is active here. All plans are serious. In the industrial sector, Belarusians are interested in moving their MAZ vehicles to Syria. Since the summer, negotiations are underway to organize the assembly of Minsk trucks at a local enterprise. They promise to use for this open credit line.

These examples should not be misleading about the absence of serious problems in the Syrian economy. The war left its black mark on it: over 12 millions of Syrians live in need, during the conflict, the currency rate fell from 60 to 220 Syrian pounds for the US dollar, annual inflation exceeds 30 percent, purchasing power, domestic consumption and production dropped sharply.

At the same time, experts consider the ability to quickly recover and build up after wars as an important national trait of Syrians. In the history there is a lot of evidence of this. And the outcome of the current war for serious observers is already obvious: the rout of extremist and terrorist groups and national reconciliation. These estimates directly coincide with the tasks of Russia in the Syrian conflict, which Vladimir Putin frankly announced.

... And yet you should not take hats in hand to aim at the perpetrators of the Syrian conflict. Terrorists just do not lay down their weapons. They still buy thousands of people in their blood. As the representative of the Ministry of Defense of Russia Igor Konashenkov said on Friday: “In the provinces of Idlib and Hama, the field commanders of the terrorist organization Dzhebhat al-Nusra, under the penalty of being shot, families are forced to mobilize local residents. And in the province of Rakka, ISIL militants declared the total mobilization of the male population since 14 years. ” So the leaders of the terrorists are trying to compensate for the massive desertion of the militants. And along with this, the price that the Syrian Arab Republic will now pay for the long-awaited peace and political stability is increasing.
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  1. strelets 21 October 2015 06: 39 New
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    How interesting. Even in Syria, economic and industrial growth has been seen. Assad pays salaries to officials in the occupied territories. And compare with Ukraine. Someone rules, and someone robs.
  2. Wolka 21 October 2015 06: 39 New
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    but there is nothing surprising in this, the very idea of ​​a Yankee excommunication of B. Assad by military means is initially absurd, therefore has no logical end, controlled chaos it is chaos, only a side view, it is also meaningless to call it controlled as the idea itself, because the Yankees and cannot offer anything constructive to pacify the chaos generated by them in the person of ISIS, there is only one way out: the widespread universal destruction of ISIS, the introduction of the UN peacekeeping contingent (with the participation of Russia and the CSTO member countries), and the holding of the next elections in Syria ...
  3. parusnik 21 October 2015 07: 38 New
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    May God grant peace to the people of Syria ...
  4. sailor 21 October 2015 07: 42 New
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    Yes, loans at 17% is a country where the war is the 5th year and we do not have less than 30%! Who is to blame?
  5. cniza 21 October 2015 07: 45 New
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    Quote: parusnik
    May God grant peace to the people of Syria ...



    And they need help, which is what we are already doing.
  6. slizhov 21 October 2015 08: 27 New
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    And life must go on.
    And to restore it, there will be one who continues to clean street after street, village after village.
    And there will live not those who, like rats, with full faces, are torn to the abode of Germany.
    These have neither a homeland, nor a hearth, nor the monastery in which he was born, nor the churchyard on which his ancestors rest.
    A well-fed life is needed, for EU allowance, in EU houses, but so ... NOT WITH CULTURE and world order.
    Such will sweep away this EU, only roots in the ground must be let in, and this takes time.
  7. rotmistr60 21 October 2015 09: 17 New
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    for the first time in many years, the United States lowered the United States to the level of an international participant, secondary in its influence on the conflict.

    Sooner or later, but you have to pay for your mistakes (to put it mildly), miscalculations and arrogance. And now America, painful for its pride, is experiencing for itself. I hope that in the future she will feel even greater international humiliation to her ambitions.
    1. Tatar 174 21 October 2015 09: 30 New
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      Quote: rotmistr60
      I hope that in the future she will feel even greater international humiliation to her ambitions.

      That's just the dollar must first bang ...
  8. Cossack Ermak 21 October 2015 09: 28 New
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    during the conflict, the lira fell from 60 to 220 Syrian pounds to the US dollar,

    Explain this expression to me. Who fell where.
  9. SSR
    SSR 21 October 2015 09: 39 New
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    Ka.ke, ly .... Carefully read about "arabchat".


    Not lost and management structure. According to eyewitnesses, there is a bus service between the cities controlled by the Syrian government and the Islamists. Officials working in the territories occupied by the Islamic State terrorist group receive a salary from the government of Bashar al-Assad. They say that the Syrian president is striving to preserve the unity of the country. Moreover, because of the lack of their own personnel, the Islamists in the occupied cities are forced to rely on local employees. Some use it, receive money from both Damascus and Raqqa (the capital of the IG), which, however, does not change the essence of the picture.

    And you and your current Maydan government cannot even realize this .... You yourself threw pensioners and other people in the East ruins.
    Learn from the Arabs jumpers.
    Ps
    Somalia will not slide to the level of Ukraine. (WITH).
    1. cniza 21 October 2015 16: 20 New
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      They kind of have it ... well, you understand. laughing
  10. basmach 21 October 2015 10: 41 New
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    Yes, Syria is getting ready. Only here, help in this podglovka had to be provided even 3 years ago. And now the country is destroyed (I remember Damascus, Homs, Aleppo, Tartus 95, when I was on a business trip), the population partially ran away. But GDP has a wonderful (yet another after Crimea and Donetsk) reason to promote and thus distract people from internal problems (the search for an external enemy and a small victorious war is an old tried and tested method)
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. shonsu 21 October 2015 17: 34 New
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      where does the PR? Putin and so the rating is higher than the roof. and how does this relate to internal problems? I have never heard that something was missing for someone because they sent to Syria, well, either to the Donbass or elsewhere. no one refers to problems due to the war in Syria, not even a single enemy has any news.
    3. shpilkerman 23 October 2015 18: 50 New
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      Well, even if it’s destroyed, the main thing is that there should be no war. You Chechnya, remember what was there, what devastation. It is important that there is desire and money. All this is.
      Internal problems should not concern you, Putin himself will deal with them. If all these problems are voiced through all TV channels, it will be very bad. So you were born in the USSR and should know what happened after Boris “1st” came to the presidency. Compared to the 90s, now we live very well. You can’t undo everything that the Americans once wrote for us in the constitution, you can’t just discard those whom the Americans also planted. Listen to you - remember Gennady Zyuganov's hunt: more words, less deeds. He also likes to make statements, but these are just words, he would not have endured what Putin had endured, would have broken ...
      Now the provocateurs are just waiting for what you can grab and riot, or your own Maidan, because the Russians are distracted, although we know about it and are ready for such "Maidan". Not everything is as simple as we would like.
  11. vetlan19 21 October 2015 11: 16 New
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    Quote: SSR
    Not lost and management structure. According to eyewitnesses, there is a bus service between the cities controlled by the Syrian government and the Islamists. Officials working in the territories occupied by the Islamic State terrorist group receive a salary from the government of Bashar al-Assad. They say that the Syrian president is striving to preserve the unity of the country. Moreover, because of the lack of their own personnel, the Islamists in the occupied cities are forced to rely on local employees. Some use it, receive money from both Damascus and Raqqa (the capital of the IG), which, however, does not change the essence of the picture.


    It was the same in Chechnya during the two wars. Moscow regularly paid salaries and pensions, regardless of who controlled the territory. I think that this is ours, the Russian experience is working.
  12. Leeder 21 October 2015 11: 45 New
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    Quote: Cossack Ermak
    during the conflict, the lira fell from 60 to 220 Syrian pounds to the US dollar,

    Explain this expression to me. Who fell where.

    Previously, for 1 dollar they gave 60 pounds, now 220.
    There is apparently a mistake, in Syria, the currency is the Pound, not the lira. : Syrian pound SYP)
  13. Belousov 21 October 2015 12: 20 New
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    May God grant them a peaceful sky!
  14. glavnykarapuz 21 October 2015 12: 39 New
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    Quote: Belousov
    May God grant them a peaceful sky!

    And a peaceful sky would not hurt us.
  15. Insurgent LC 21 October 2015 14: 46 New
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    here are the new pearls of bloody Peter

    On October XNUMX of this year, at a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, a document was drawn up and submitted for execution, according to which all combat-ready “voluntary” punitive units should be put on high alert, undergo pre-training and go to the disposal of the Syrian “moderate opposition”.
    1. Vladimir73 21 October 2015 19: 46 New
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      Judging by the document, two versions:
      - do not know how to get rid of punishers
      - the Americans set some kind of "generator of invisible rays" near the Rada (I immediately recall the "Beetle in the Strugatsky Anthill") request
  16. Dan Slav 21 October 2015 23: 06 New
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    According to Western data, a good borrower at the end of 2014 could receive a credit line at 17% per annum.

    Stunned! In our non-belligerent and strong country, the percentage per annum is 18 and higher!
    In warring Syria 17!
    Here are those on! Banks and economists of Russia, who are you kidding? On whom and how do you heat your hands?
    Horror, and nothing more!
    In ancient Rome, it was believed that over 8 percent generally robbery! And here!
    1. Vlad5307 23 October 2015 15: 13 New
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      And here is the complete ripping off legally!
  17. Yak28 22 October 2015 06: 28 New
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    It seems to me that Syria does not have high chances to get out of war and chaos. The first is the insufficient number of our planes, the Syrian army is exhausted and small in comparison with the militants, and there is no one to fight besides a handful of Syrians, at the same time, the number of militants is constantly growing, the third armaments of the army are morally and physically obsolete equipment. No one needs strong Syria in the region, so Turkey or Qatar can send troops to Syria to defend the supposedly moderate opposition, and the Syrian army will come to an end. So if you look at things without euphoria, the picture looms not entirely rosy.
  18. Vlad5307 23 October 2015 15: 12 New
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    Quote: Insurgent LPR
    On October XNUMX of this year, at a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, a document was drawn up and submitted for execution, according to which all combat-ready “voluntary” punitive units should be put on high alert, undergo pre-training and go to the disposal of the Syrian “moderate opposition”.

    There came a mess from the "owner" - the IS needs help from the Nazi bombarded, otherwise the IS youth recruits are worthless soldiers, and they are trying to escape, and not to fight with the ATS. Here Parashka also tries to please the "master" and protect himself! soldier