The National Interest: Leaders of the USA and China have refuted the assumptions about the inevitability of war between the two countries

Fukidida Center at the Free University of Berlin and the American School of Classical Studies in Athens, political scientist S.N. Jaffe said in an article for The National Interest that American and Chinese leaders Barack Obama and Xi Jinping do not believe in the inevitability of a war between Beijing and Washington.




According to the expert, a change in the balance of power between China and the United States will definitely have an impact on the perception of national interests by both states.

“With the emergence of inevitable conflicts, the ruling elites will have to apply extremely accurate crisis management techniques, since events can easily get out of control. In this case, the strategic interests of the two states will be articulated much tougher, and the field for finding a compromise will be narrowed, ”the article notes.

Jaffe stressed that with such a dynamic development of relations between the PRC and the United States, the likelihood of “strategic miscalculations” will increase, which could be the cause of war.

“Obama and Xi were right in denying the inevitability of war. They may fall into another “trap of Thucydides” if they refuse to recognize the existence of deep contradictions, the appearance of which cannot be (and moreover, no longer possible) avoided due to a change in the balance between the US and China, ”the political scientist concluded.
Photos used:
http://cache.pakistantoday.com.pk
Ctrl Enter

Noticed a mistake Highlight text and press. Ctrl + Enter

24 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Vladimyrych 19 October 2015 10: 27 New
    • 6
    • 0
    +6
    Starry striped mattress never! will not openly fight with someone who can give an answer and bury them if something happens. They will act as always - by cunning and setup.

    Quote: polite people
    Two foxes met. We decided to deceive the third. Hand washes a hand. They are already at the same time. I see. soldier

    In any case, their love is temporary. Either the SGA will start China to crush after they crush us, or China and I will clash after the defeat of the SGA.
    1. Penetrator 19 October 2015 10: 35 New
      • 2
      • 0
      +2
      Quote: Vladimir
      Starry striped mattress never! will not openly fight with someone who can give an answer and bury them if something happens. They will act as always - by cunning and setup.

      And the Chinese are so white and fluffy, damn it. Acting with "cunning and fraud" for the Americans from a nation that has existed for 4000 years, still study and study.
      1. Vladimyrych 19 October 2015 10: 41 New
        • 2
        • 0
        +2
        Frankly speaking, I’m parallel to China. I am categorically against selling them the strategic technologies of our spill precisely because if! we snag SGA then we will have to deal with China. For me, it is precisely for us that Russia needs to pursue the policy pursued by China (observation from a palm tree). But we were chosen to slaughter first and for a long time.
        1. Das Boot 19 October 2015 11: 30 New
          • 2
          • 0
          +2
          Quote: Vladimir
          what kind of policy China is conducting (observation from a palm tree).

          something about a palm tree is not entirely clear. In your opinion, therefore, a state can have two states - "observation from a palm tree" and "participation in a batch", right?
          1. Vladimyrych 19 October 2015 12: 07 New
            • 0
            • 0
            0
            This is me about a proverb where, while two tigers fight, a wise monkey sits on a tree and watches. Actually, China’s position is precisely in this. Sitting on a tree (palm tree from my words smile ) with skim cream. With mattresses, technology and energy resources have been looted from us. I would prefer Russia to be in the place of the monkey. excuse me lol
            For your question - exactly as you described. Or or. True in different interpretations.
            1. Das Boot 19 October 2015 13: 20 New
              • 2
              • 0
              +2
              Quote: Vladimir
              For your question - exactly as you described. Or or.

              History of China Your thesis refutes. There is still isolation that China has practiced since the 15th century, it seems, when it burned the fleet, cut out sailors and abandoned expansionist policies, although it could give odds to the whole world combined on ship technology. They say that this happened because the then EBI under the emperors was led by eunuchs. There was such a tradition.
              1. Vladimyrych 20 October 2015 01: 16 New
                • 0
                • 0
                0
                So forgive me, but what do you describe is not a "palm observation"? It’s just a kind of passive observation. lol
                1. Das Boot 20 October 2015 08: 07 New
                  • 0
                  • 0
                  0
                  Quote: Vladimir
                  not have a "palm observation"?

                  do not eat. They did not observe anyone and were not interested in processes outside. This author has nothing to do with a palm tree.
      2. KazaK Bo 19 October 2015 11: 06 New
        • 0
        • 0
        0
        Penetrator
        And the Chinese are so white and fluffy, damn it. Acting with "cunning and fraud" for the Americans from a nation that has existed for 4000 years, still study and study.

        Correctly noticed! It is unlikely that they will face head on! The confrontation will not reach the “hot” ... The Chinese will be easier and more likely every day to surrender 10 (ten million) people in captivity ... let them feed and just the whole US army will then go on guard ... no one will be at war with amerov! ...
        After all, it is not in vain that the CHINESE PROSPECT says that it is better to sit on the mountain and watch how in the valley they fight for the death of a tiger and a lion (!) ... waiting until the fighters remain completely exhausted ...
        At the same time, they see themselves in this case on the top of the mountain!
    2. Karlovar 19 October 2015 14: 53 New
      • 2
      • 0
      +2
      The world economic war has been going on for a long time .... All of these are TTP, TAP, BRICS, SCO, EAEU, New Silk Road, AIIB Bank, BRICS Bank, Hong Kong Gold Exchange, the expected oil exchange in Shanghai for Russian, possibly Iranian oil , sanctions, anti-sanctions, assaults on Volkswagen and much much more, this is military (economic) action!
  2. polite people 19 October 2015 10: 28 New
    • 6
    • 0
    +6
    Two foxes met. We decided to deceive the third. Hand washes a hand. They are already at the same time. I see. soldier
    1. veksha50 19 October 2015 10: 35 New
      • 4
      • 0
      +4
      Quote: polite people
      Two foxes met. We decided to deceive the third.



      That's it ... Russia should have ears on the top ... For the USA, the alliance between China and Russia is terrible, and for us, the alliance and all sorts of agreements between the USA and China ...
      1. Karlovar 19 October 2015 14: 59 New
        • 1
        • 0
        +1
        Alliances with the Anglo-Saxons always ended badly .... for their allies .... In the Chinese elites, knowledge of history is an honor ....
  3. Turkir 19 October 2015 10: 29 New
    • 3
    • 0
    +3
    He loves .. he doesn't love .. he will spit .. kiss ...
    Political scientist Yaffe.
  4. roskot 19 October 2015 10: 36 New
    • 2
    • 0
    +2
    The cunning with the cunning made a mutual curtsy. There will be no war, but no peace either.
    1. Karlovar 19 October 2015 15: 00 New
      • 1
      • 0
      +1
      Precisely noticed! The very essence!
  5. Mountain shooter 19 October 2015 10: 39 New
    • 3
    • 0
    +3
    Let the non-attack pact be signed laughing History teaches that after this pact ... The contradictions of China and mattress are gradually increasing. China cannot do without mattress, and mattress without China. On the other hand, Chinese goods are starting to rise in price due to the natural increase in the value of Chinese labor. And these means of mattress must be taken somewhere.
    1. PSih2097 19 October 2015 11: 42 New
      • 2
      • 0
      +2
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      Let the Non-Attack Pact be signed laughing History teaches that after this pact ...

      I agree, also inspired by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact ...
      1. Karlovar 19 October 2015 15: 06 New
        • 0
        • 0
        0
        And this is the Molotman-Rib Ben Tropez Pact ....
    2. Karlovar 19 October 2015 15: 04 New
      • 1
      • 0
      +1
      At the same time, the quality of American goods is gradually decreasing .... Yes, and the main American goods are not industrial goods, but services (a very large sector of financial services), freshly printed candy wrappers, the stock market .... that the world is trying to gradually get rid of .... So the contradictions will only increase ...
  6. TARAS BULBA 19 October 2015 10: 41 New
    • 0
    • 0
    0
    Since the days of Mao, they have a favorite saying about the king of the Monkeys who, sitting on a tree, watched the battle of two tigers in the valley waiting for them to work each other and then he gets down from the tree and finishes both ... nothing changes.
  7. A-Sim 19 October 2015 10: 41 New
    • 2
    • 0
    +2
    Believe. Do not believe. Nonsense. Taiwan, the Xinjiang Uygur region, Spratly Islands - all this greatly worries overseas "democrats". Moreover, they have a shift in the basement office on their nose. And there such marginals climb. Propaganda works miracles - it will be necessary, everyone will believe (albeit not for long).
  8. Monos 19 October 2015 10: 44 New
    • 5
    • 0
    +5
    With the emergence inevitable conflicts ...


    I felt much calmer!
  9. Vladimir 1964 19 October 2015 10: 47 New
    • 2
    • 0
    +2
    “With the emergence of inevitable conflicts, the ruling elites will have to apply extremely accurate crisis management techniques, since events can easily get out of control. In this case, the strategic interests of the two states will be articulated much tougher, and the field for finding a compromise will be narrowed, ”the article notes.


    Here I also think that the Yankees and the Chinese may “rattle the fleets”, but of course things will not come to a critical aggravation. Kopromis in any case will be, that's just interesting at whose expense.

    This is perhaps the question. recourse
  10. DREDD 19 October 2015 11: 04 New
    • 0
    • 0
    0
    China and America have too close economic ties, so close that it is just right to call China the first industrial state in the United States. It is correctly said above: no matter what the conflict situation, it will not go beyond diplomacy.
  11. bobba94 19 October 2015 11: 41 New
    • 3
    • 0
    +3
    Obama and Xijinping are convinced that they do not believe in the inevitability of war between the United States and China. They are absolutely right. They just do not say that their conviction applies only to the period of their cadence, that is, for the next 15 to 20 years. What will happen next is no longer for them.
  12. rotmistr60 19 October 2015 13: 25 New
    • 3
    • 0
    +3
    Quote: polite people
    Two foxes met. We decided to deceive the third. Hand washes a hand. They are already at the same time. I see.

    Well, if you think so, then you can be congratulated. Until today, not a single specialist in China and an analyst have thought of this before. It turns out that Obama, for the sake of conspiracy, called China a threat to the interests of the United States, and the American fleet creeps into the disputed islands. For the same reason, China morally and diplomatically supports Russia. The most interesting thing is that such comments are usually written by those who are thousands of kilometers from the border with China.
  13. Evkur 19 October 2015 15: 29 New
    • 0
    • 0
    0
    Simple logic- China is the largest holder of US debt, and when you owe dough, you always say that I will give everything back soon, and I’m clearing the scheme myself so I don’t have to return the debt, and even easier - I don’t have a Lender)))