What does the Syrian campaign lead to, or what will happen after ISIS?
After the mixed air wing of the Russian airborne forces was transferred to the Hmeimim Syrian airbase, the Israeli Air Force attacks on government forces of Bashar al-Assad fell sharply, which was a good guarantee of maintaining the combat potential of the Syrian army even in the most adverse circumstances. The presence in the wing of super-maneuverable multi-purpose fighters Su-30SM and tactical fighter-bombers Su-34, which today have a full range of capabilities to gain air supremacy (in addition to the ability to destroy sea, ground targets and track the enemy’s submarine fleet in the PLO system), not only allows you to create a deterrent factor for the coalition air force, but it also really holds back Aviation NATO and Israel from unlawful operations against the army of Bashar al-Assad. 10 multifunctional tactical fighters (4 Su-30SM and 6 Su-34) are the most advanced aerial combat vehicles in the region, the avionics of which include multi-mode airborne radars with PFAR N011M Bars and Sh-141 Predator. Not so many pro-American states possess such powerful radar systems of fighters in the Middle East; the only exception is the 5th generation American fighter squadron F-22A deployed at the Al-Dafra Air Force Base.
As we can see, the actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces grouping on the most dangerous air routes of the Syrian theater of operations are very well coordinated and effective. In the incident with the Turkish F-16C, the Su-30CM showed itself perfectly well, which carried out the warning “seizure for accurate auto tracking” of two Turkish fighters at once, using the multi-channel radar to prevent a possible invasion of Syrian airspace; previously, such violations were a routine procedure for Turkish aviation.
But it is also absolutely logical that our VKS grouping is only an effective tool for the destruction of IS, local restraint of “ticketing” and provocations by the NATO DFID, as well as for the long-term protection of the naval base in Tartus with the C-300 and Pantsir -С1 », providing territorial and positional air defense of the western part of Syria. There is no full component of air supremacy to win Syria’s sky from NATO in the event of an exacerbation of the situation in the SAR: 4 Su-30СМ and 6 Su-34 will not be able to withstand hundreds of coalition fighters if the United States and Turkey once or decide to provide direct support to the Syrian opposition. The degree of such a scenario is very high.
The primary suppression of the Syrian opposition becomes the priority of destroying ISIS.
And to deny this in no way impossible. Now there is a phased and well-planned modernization of the opposition forces of Syria with modern models of small arms and anti-tank weapons from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States. At a time when our air forces and ships of the Caspian Flotilla are fully immersed in the tasks of undermining the ISIS’s combat capability, US military transport aircraft C-17 regularly drop military supplies for the Syrian opposition, including millions of arsenals of cartridges for M-16 rifles and AK assault rifles -47, TOW-2 anti-tank missile systems and the BGM-71F ATGM to them, as well as many versions of MANPADS, from Stinger to Red Eye, etc. At the same time, the United States completely abandoned the complex interaction with the Russian Federation on the conduct of an air combat operation against the IS. The United States, together with Qatar, used the Islamic State as an excellent moderately controlled military tool to overthrow the Assad regime, but after the arrival of the Russian Air Force, the IG project began to turn into a withering project and all bets in Washington are now being made exclusively on the opposition.
The development of the situation after the defeat of ISIL will be the most unpredictable stage of the Syrian conflict, to which we must be ready now.
What will be the theater of military operations in Syria after the defeat of the IG by the Russian Air Force and the government forces of the UAR? It depends solely on the wisdom of the actions of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia already these days. If all the work of the Russian Aerospace Forces will be aimed only at suppressing the IG, the opposition units will be armed to the teeth with American weapons and tactical electronics within the next few months. After more or less complete stripping of ISIS, the only strong rebellious fighting force in Syria will remain the 30-thousand-strong opposition-terrorist militant formation of the “Front al-Nusra”, which now controls around 1 / 7 in Syria, and it will be much more difficult to resist rather than LIH. At the same time, the most intense and dangerous military-political stage in the Middle East will begin, for it is “Jabhat-en-Nusra” that is the last “salvatory stick” of Western strategic interests in the Middle East, which Russia will have to “break” without fail. we risk losing not only the friendly Syrian regime in Syria, but also the 720 STEP in Tartus and other strategic facilities of the Russian army in the Mediterranean. Given the importance of “Jabhat-en-Nusra” for the West, it becomes clear that the conflict could later escalate into a direct military confrontation with the participation of the most aggressive United States, Great Britain, and some states in Asia Minor, which are weakly dependent on Russian energy.
Strengthening aviation gaining air superiority and the Russian Navy off the Syrian coast is a “recipe” for the long-term preservation of Syrian statehood until the full restoration of the national armed forces. What equipment can appear on the Syrian theater?
As stated at the beginning of the article, the current composition of the Russian VKS in Syria is absolutely not ready to act against the combined NATO air forces if Washington decides to resort to direct support from the Syrian opposition when it is left alone against the Russian air forces and the Syrian armed forces. Such a course of events may begin in the coming 6 months - a year immediately after the defeat of the IG.
It is not by chance that right now we are witnessing the most large-scale military exercises of the NATO “Trident Juncture-2015” NATO armed forces, in which 30 thousand NATO soldiers and military equipment of most of the armed forces will be involved. One of the stages of the naval exercises is held off the coast of Italy, just 1500 km from the location of the Russian Navy CUG, covering the Syrian coast, is a no less significant fact that makes you think about strengthening the Russian presence in Syria. Russia must be fully prepared for direct NATO aggression, losing leverage in the Middle East and Central Asia. The existing weaknesses of the Russian military contingent in Syria and the surrounding area should be strengthened promptly and comprehensively.
As mentioned at the beginning of the article, ten Su-30CM and Su-34 tactical fighters with effective air combat capabilities are absolutely not enough to gain air superiority and defend the Russian military contingent in Syria even on the distant approaches to strategic facilities in the west of the state if NATO comes out from a position of strength. The number of Su-30CM should be increased not less than to 30 - 40 aircraft, and this is not the limit of what is needed.
No one can rule out that the United States Air Force will decide on the transfer to Arabian and Turkish air bases of a fully equipped aviation regiment-two of 24 - 48 low-profile F-22A “Raptor” fighters, and the reinforced American AUG 6 will not be sent to US Navy fleet, which can include up to two Nimitz-class aircraft carriers with 150-160 deck-mounted F / A-18E / F “Super Hornet” fighter aircraft, which have AN / APG airborne radars that are quite comparable with our Bars -79, based on design ie high-energy active phased array. With the upgraded air-to-air missiles of the AIM-120C-7 / 8 (flight range from 130 to 170 km), the Hornets will overwhelmingly outnumber our fighters, which makes us think about the need to transfer to Syria such machines as the Su-35С .
Su-35S is the most advanced multi-purpose fighter of the transitional generation “4 ++” of the Russian Air Force today. And only this aircraft can guarantee confidently equal air confrontation with promising low-profile F-22A fighters, as well as effective long-range air combat with Western European, Turkish and Arabian fighters "Typhoon", "Rafale", F-15S and F-16C Block 52 + / XNX even with a significant quantitative advantage. The installed on-board radar with the PFAR Н60 "Irbis-E" is capable of controlling the airspace within 035 radius of km by typical air targets and within 400-200 radius of km for unobtrusive targets of the type "F-250A" or the Tomahawk cruise missile (EG within NNXX). m22). The radar "Irbis-E" has 0,1 target channels, so that one "Drying" can begin an air battle immediately with the enemy's 2 fighters at a distance inaccessible for effective counter attack. Unification with the Khibiny electronic warfare complex further complicates the conduct of combat with Su-8C. The emergence of a fighter regiment from 8 of these aircraft at the air base in Latakia parries most of the likely aggressive plans of the West in relation to the Russian presence in the SAR. The problem of the absence of DRLO A-35U aircraft in the region will also be solved automatically. The C-36-50 tactical data transmission complex, installed on the Su-107C, will fully provide coverage of the far-air situation for the friendly Su-1CM and Su-35 air squadrons, whose radar does not have such capabilities. Modern Russian air forces are already operating in accordance with the canons of the network-centric war, which causes great fear among the NATO command.
The second, no less important issue than aviation, the conquest of domination and air defense, is the relatively low anti-submarine defense (PLO) of the Russian Navy near the Syrian coast. It is worth noting that the Americans have always paid the most important attention to anti-submarine defense, and this is still happening. On October 9, the P-3C “Orion” anti-submarine patrol aircraft arrived at the Constanta airbase in Romania to conduct joint PLO exercises in conjunction with the naval forces of Romania, Ukraine, Turkey and the US Porter, which is visiting the port of Odessa.
The DDG-78 “Porter” of the Arleigh Burk class is equipped with the Aegis combat information and control system, the main “trump card” of which is not only the ADV-PRO AUG, but also the integration of the most modern and powerful sonar complex of the American fleet AN / SQQ- 89 (V) 6. Thanks to such synchronization, the Aegis-American AUG ships can be informationally fully synchronized on the Link-16 local network with other connection ships and PLO P-3C Orion planes. This system linking of “units” of the American fleet allows to achieve the most effective anti-submarine capabilities, unlike our system “Requirement-M”, which, with excellent detection ranges of underwater targets, has a limited number of “subscribers”, which does not allow to timely and accurately inform each unit of the fleet about possible approach of enemy missile submarines. Almost all ships of the US Navy classes EM / RR, including those approaching Syria (6 fleet), are equipped with Aegis systems of various modifications. This somewhat complicates the possibilities of operating our multipurpose Varshavyanka and Lada class diesel-electric submarines in the Eastern Mediterranean.
But in our anti-submarine defense there are also parties that are absolutely not worked out in the US Navy and the fleets of the NATO countries; the air base for this is already in Latakia and is attacking ISIS. You can lay down legends about the versatility of the Su-34 tactical fighter-bomber: it is an excellent machine for EW theater of operations, a very maneuverable fighter, a high-precision bomber, and a magnificent anti-ship aviation complex. But few people realize that this aircraft, which has system-assisted BREO, can conduct joint anti-submarine operations with the Il-38Н anti-submarine patrol aircraft, where the latter will act as a command post for command and control.
The use of multipurpose nuclear submarines for delivering massive missile strikes at enemy targets is a favorite tactic of NATO's naval forces, which was confirmed during Operation Odyssey. Dawn "in Libya, when the British submarine" Trafalgar "struck the TCR" Tomahawk "at the unprepared and outdated Libyan air defense. Perform NATO submarines and reconnaissance missions to identify the most weakened underwater approaches to the enemy. Information about the organization of an effective PLO of the Russian Navy in Syria has not been received, which makes one seriously think about the security of our fleet in the conditions of continued militarization of the region and increasing tensions.
But it so happened that part of the task has already been completed, Su-34 avionics, including RLK, were developed by Leninets “HC” OJSC, the same company also developed the perspective Objective-P-38 observation complex for the Il-38H aircraft. The company has provided the “Drying” with good abilities to combat the underwater enemy. Su-34 can be the carrier of 72 radio-acoustic buoys, which can be quickly distributed to the most suspicious areas of the marine theater. In aircraft CMS, there is a complex for collecting tactical information about the underwater environment over an encrypted radio channel, so that information can be quickly obtained regarding the location of the underwater enemy; This information can be promptly transmitted to the IL-38Н board via a similar radio channel, and then directly to the naval headquarters. For reliable control of a small coastline of the Syrian Arab Republic, only one IL-38Н and a Su-34 link equipped with an 288 RSL will suffice: no American or British submarine will break through such an underwater barrier, while the Su-34 can arrive 3,5 times faster to the dump zone of the RSL, than his fellow turboprop. Su-34 is the only 2М-aching aircraft in the World, which harmoniously combines the shock, fighter and anti-submarine abilities embodied by the Leninets HC. The aircraft has a tailpiece detector of magnetic anomalies, which is quite typical for marine patrol cars, which is also “exotic” in the field of conventional front-line aviation.
With regards to the surface component of the Russian Navy off the coast of Syria, we can say that its power is currently moderate (or even insufficient), at least its composition is currently much weaker than the one we saw at the time of the defense of the Syrian coast from a possible strike by NATO naval forces in 2013 year. As part of the grouping, the main share is made up of large landing ships and the entire 4 percussion ship: 2 TFR of 1135 / 35М ("Ladny" and "Pytlivy") and BOD. 61 "Sharp"; The flagship of the group is the GRKr pr. 1164.5 "Moscow".
Now self-sufficiency and individual defensive abilities of this CCG are not very high, since the Moskva missile cruiser, even in the presence of the C-300F Fort shipboard air defense missile system, is not able to survive for a long time under attacks from NATO anti-ship and anti-radar missiles, since their ammunition is Total 64 ZUR 5В55РМ in 8х8 revolver PU B-204А, and 6 target channels "Fort" will not reflect the simultaneous impact of 35-40 "Harpoons" or 30 AGM-88 "HARM". To cover the dead zone in the TUG, only the Osa-Maxnumx CPCR is installed on some BDK and all 2 warships of the main classes. The complexes have a limitation in 4-500 m / s at the maximum speed of the targeted target, are single-channel and cannot boast of excessive precision of the guidance radar, the minimum height of the targets hit, although brought to 700 km, is the “star raid” of the OCR PCR AGM-10 do not repel, so the conclusion is only one: the Mediterranean Navy of the Russian Navy should be reinforced with no less than a few corvettes of the 84 Alert avenue with the Poliment-Redut air defense system and one TARKr Ave 20385 the Peter the Great. The current composition, in the light of the threat assessment, is very weak.
The situation continues to evolve according to a completely predictable scenario: all attention is to fight against LIH, the opposition is “sitting out” and quickly arming itself with “hands” and money from the West. And if the simultaneous destruction of the “moderates” is stalled, the consequences of this will be indescribable.
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