Military Review

Will Syria fall apart? The likelihood of the creation of the “Alawite State

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The civil war in Syria confronts the country with tangible prospects for the collapse of several sovereign states. At least, such a scenario is increasingly being discussed by Russian and Western political scientists. The price that each of the parties to the Syrian conflict has already paid for its “truth” is too high. Sunnis and Shiites, Alawites and Kurds, Arabs-Christians, Assyrians, Armenians, Greeks-Melkites, Turkmens - all these ethno-confessional communities, until recently, not without conflicts, but still got along within a single state. The war questioned the very possibility of their further coexistence. Actually, modern Syria is a product of the colonial era, more precisely, the division of the possessions of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East according to the results of the First World War. Prior to 1918, the Syrian and Mesopotamian lands were later divided between Great Britain and France. Iraq, Palestine and Transjordan came under the control of the British, and Syria and Lebanon came under the control of the French.




How modern Syria was created

The lands of modern Syria for exactly four centuries, from 1517 to 1918, were part of the Ottoman Empire. After the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War, most of its land was occupied by the Entente powers, or declared independence. An important role in Arab politics before and after the First World War was played by Great Britain, which contributed to the intensification of anti-Ottoman sentiment among the population of the Arabian Peninsula. The British established friendly relations with the Saudi dynasty, which ruled in Nejd (the “core” of the future Saudi Arabia) and preached Salafism. However, the sacred for all Muslim cities of Mecca and Medina, located in the province of Hijaz, were under the control of the sheriffs of Mecca, which was ruled by the Hashimite Arab dynasty from 1201. Sheriffs retained power over the holy city and after the entry of the Hejaz into the Ottoman Empire. During World War I, the British managed to push Sheriff Mecca Hussein Ibn Ali to an anti-Ottoman protest. He was promised official recognition as the king of the independent Hejaz. In June, 1916, Mr. Hussein ibn Ali, raised a revolt against Ottoman rule, hoping thereafter to unite all Arabs of the Arabian Peninsula under his rule. Hejaz acted on the side of Great Britain, so when, in 1918, British troops commanded by Edmund Henry Allenby entered Syria and 30 September occupied Damascus, along with them came the Arab forces under the command of Faisal, the son of Meccan sheriff and King Hejaz Hussein ibn Ali . Faisal held the post of Minister of the Interior in Hejaz. The king of Hijaz hoped that with the help of Great Britain he would succeed in uniting all Arab lands under his rule - from Syria in the north to Yemen in the south. Therefore, his son Faisal began to form the Arab government in Damascus. In October, 1918 was appointed Ali Reid Bash al-Rikabi (1864-1942), a native of Damascus, a former Turkish general, who opposed the entry of the Ottoman Empire into the war on the German side and paid for it with a military career.

Before the entry into Damascus of the troops of Faisal al-Ricabi, he served as mayor of the city. However, the British were not going to give the Middle East lands under the control of the Hejaz Hashemites. Prince Faisal was allowed to rule only the eastern part of Syria, since, in accordance with the Sykes-Pico agreements, Palestine was reserved for British control, and Lebanon and Western Syria - for French control. Already on October 8, 1918, French troops landed in Beirut, which replaced British garrisons in Syria. The French military administration ceased the activities of the Arab authorities. Thus, the hopes of the Hejaz dynasty to establish their power over the entire Arab Middle East did not come true, although Hussein ibn Ali and Faisal continued to count on a possible revenge. France demanded full implementation of the Sykes-Picot agreements, in connection with which Great Britain withdrew its troops from Damascus. Prince Faisal's attempts to find understanding with the ruling circles in Britain and France were unsuccessful. French General Henri Gouraud was appointed High Commissioner for Syria and Cilicia (southeast coast of Turkey). However, the Syrian population did not welcome the French presence in the country. Meanwhile, Faisal's father Hussein ibn Ali was unsuccessfully waging a war with Nejd, which was ruled by the Saudis. On the Arabian Peninsula, there was a struggle for power, in which the Saudi dynasty that ruled Nejd, the Hashemite dynasty that ruled the Hejaz and the Rashidid dynasty that ruled the emirate of Jebel Shammar took part. While his father was at war in the Arabian Peninsula, his son Faisal did not give up hope of confirmation as the monarch of Syria. In March 1920, the Syrian National Congress was convened in Damascus, which proclaimed the political independence of Syria in its historical borders, including the British-occupied lands of Palestine. At the same congress, Faisal was proclaimed king. Ali Rida al-Ricabi was appointed Prime Minister of Syria on May 9, 1920. The al-Ricabi government introduced universal military service in Syria and began to create and strengthen its own armed forces. Naturally, the ongoing events caused a sharply negative reaction in Paris, which by this time had received a mandate to govern Syria and Lebanon. In addition, the Christians of Lebanon were also unhappy, who feared discrimination and pogroms if the lands inhabited by them became part of the Syrian Arab Kingdom. The Council of Christian Leaders was assembled in Baabda, which on 22 March 1920 proclaimed the political independence of Lebanon. On July 14, 1920, the High Commissioner of France in Syria, General Henri Gouraud, presented an ultimatum to King Faisal, confronting the latter with two possible alternatives - abdication of the royal throne in Syria or cooperation with the French authorities and fulfillment of their orders. Faisal, seeking to maintain his power in Syria, decided to cooperate with the French military administration. It is likely that he would have retained the royal title and received some of the rights to govern Syria, but Syrian Defense Minister Yusuf al-Azma refused to obey the French command. A quick Franco-Syrian war began. In the Battle of Maysaloun, the Syrian army was defeated, suffering huge losses. Minister of War al-Azma was also killed. On July 24, 1920, General Goibet's troops entered Damascus.

Syria under the French mandate. Country section

In an effort to protect Syria from further uprisings, the French leadership decided to create several political entities in Syria. Thus, the State of Damascus, the State of Aleppo, the Alawite State, Jabal ad-Druz (Druze Land), Sandjak Alexandretta, and the State of Great Lebanon appeared. This division is not complete, but it takes into account the ethno-confessional differences that existed from time immemorial in Syria. The fact is that in the confessional sense Syria has never been a single state. First, one of the largest Christian communities in the Arab world historically lived here. Christianity and now profess about 10% of the Syrian population, first of all - Assyrians, Armenians, Greeks, Arabs-Christians. Historically, most Syrian Christians were concentrated in the northern part of the country, which in 1920 became part of the State of Aleppo. In the city of Aleppo, there was a huge Christian community, which constituted one third of the urban population and was the largest in the Middle East, besides the community of Lebanese Christians. At the same time, the Christians of Aleppo were not united - they included adherents of various churches, among which the followers of the Armenian and Syrian Orthodox churches were the most numerous. The significant Jewish community lived in Aleppo, the number of which before mass emigration to Israel was at least 10 thousand people. But the majority of the population of Aleppo were Sunni Muslims, although there were Shiite and Alawite villages in the region. The southern and less economically developed part of Syria became part of the State of Damascus, the center of which was the city of Damascus itself. It was dominated by the Arab Sunni population. In the north of Syria, on the Syrian-Turkish border, Sandjak Alexandretta was singled out in 1921, in which, in addition to Arabs and Armenians, lived a large Turkish population. In 1936, instead of Sanjak Alexandretta, the State of Hatay was formed, which was annexed by Turkey in 1939.

In the south-east of Syria, to safeguard the interests of the ethnic and religious commonality of the Druze, the state of Jabal ad-Druz was singled out. Druzes are a very isolated group of the population in the territory of modern Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Israel, speaking Arabic, but having significant cultural differences from the surrounding Arabs, caused by the Druze belonging to a particular branch of Islam. Back in the Middle Ages, the Druze broke away from the Shiite sect of the Ismailis, forming in the XI century. His own teaching, which was based on the views of the preacher Mohammed bin Ismail Nashtakin al-Darazi, by whose name they received their name. As in a number of other Middle Eastern religious sects, the transition of Druze to another religion is impossible, as is the adoption of Druse religion by representatives of other ethnic communities. Druze must be born from father and mother - Druze and profess the religion of the Druze. In the Ottoman Empire, the Druze retained a certain autonomy, which included the almost complete power of the Druze nobility over the bulk of the ordinary Druze, the right to unlimited wearing. weapons, the absence of military service. At the same time, the Druze were never completely loyal to the Ottomans, moreover, they repeatedly made anti-Turkish speeches. Historically, the Druze community had developed ties with Great Britain, which patronized this ethno-confessional community, hoping to find in them guides of its influence in the Middle East. Currently, there are at least one and a half million Druze in the world, about 900 thousands of them lived in Syria before the start of the war. Another state formation created in the territory of Syria occupied by the French was the Great Lebanon. The isolation of Lebanon from the Syrian lands was dictated by the desire of France to protect the interests of the Maronite community - Lebanese Maronite Christians, who had long-standing historical ties with Paris. Maronites did not want to live in the Muslim state and dreamed of creating their own public education. Actually, Lebanon was originally created as a state of Arab Christians. But by decision of the French authorities, the lands inhabited by Muslims, Sunnis and Shiites, were included in Greater Lebanon. The great Lebanon existed until 1926, when the constitution was adopted and the Republic of Lebanon was established, in which the president should be a Christian, the prime minister - a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament - a Shiite Muslim.

Finally, it was during the years of the French rule of Syria that the State of Alawites was created, which included a relatively small territory in the north-west of the country, on the Mediterranean coast. Back in 1919, during the “parade of sovereignties” after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Alawite state with its capital in the port of Lattakia proclaimed its political independence. However, 2 September 1920, France received the mandate to manage the Alawite territory from the League of Nations. However, the Alawites continued to resist, and only in October 1921 their leader Salih Al-Ali decided to surrender, after which, 1 July 1922, the Alawite Region was incorporated into the French mandated Syria.

Alawites - a unique community in Syria

Alawites are followers of Alavism, one of the trends in Shiite Islam, which “balances” on the verge of an independent religion, since it includes elements of Christian dogma. Until now, discussions on the origin of the Alawites have not stopped in the scientific community, and their dogma has not been thoroughly studied, because, like the Druze, the Alawites are a very closed community, preferring not to spread about their teaching. There are versions about the origin of the Alawite Syria and Turkey’s close Alevites from Syrians, Greeks and Armenians who were forced to convert to Islam (more precisely, to create the appearance of adopting Islam) after Ottoman rule was established. It is possible that the descendants of the European Crusaders, who created several states here in the Middle Ages, could take part in the ethnogenesis of the Alawites of Syria.

The history of the Alawites goes back centuries. Many opponents and critics of the Alawites believe that the Iraqi theologian Muhammad ibn Nusayr, who lived in the 9th century AD, was at the origins of this creed. and preaching the divinity of the eleventh Shiite imam Hassan al-Askari. Ibn Nusayr called himself “Bab” - “Gateway”, the messenger of Hassan al-Askari. The teachings of the Alawites are poorly understood, since the Alawites themselves prefer not to disseminate information about their religious views, and information about this religious movement has to be obtained from representatives of other ethno-confessional communities, which may not always be objective. According to some scholars, the Alawite teaching is based on faith in Ali as the embodiment of Sense, Muhammad as the embodiment of the Name and Salman al-Farsi (the first non-Arab who converted to Islam) as the embodiment of the "Gate". The Alawites also revered the daughter of the prophet Muhammad and the spouse Ali Fatima. Knowing God is impossible, but he can appear in the image of man. The history of mankind, according to the Alawite teaching, knew the seven prophets - Adam, Nuh (Noah), Jacob (Jacob), Musa (Moses), Suleiman (Solomon), Isa (Jesus) and Muhammad. However, they were all incarnations of Ali as incarnations of God. The Syrian Alawites are characterized by the veneration of Isa - Jesus, and a number of Christian saints are also worshiped along with him. Alavites celebrate Christmas and Easter, can carry Christian names, receive communion with wine. According to Alawite mythology, people were created before the creation of the Earth and were lights and planets, not knowing sin and obedience. Ali was the Sun, which appeared to people in different guises. After Ali created the Earth, he embodied people in a corporeal shell, created demons and shaitans. According to the Alawite teaching, human souls can migrate after death in animals. After a sevenfold incarnation, human souls fall either into the starry sphere or into the sphere of demons. Some religious scholars believe that the Alawites are characterized by a very disdainful attitude towards women, who are not ordained in the subtleties of teaching and are not even allowed to worship.

The highest levels in the Alawite hierarchy are occupied by the members of the family of the Prophet Muhammad, who, in the opinion of the believers, possess intimate knowledge. They separate the elect and the uninitiated. The chosen ones - “Khassa” - are the children of the father and mother - the Alawites, who were dedicated at 18 years of age through taking an oath and communion with wine. Ordinary Alawites are called "Amma" and do not carry the innermost knowledge available only to initiates. Alawites, like other Muslims, build mosques, but practically do not attend them. External aspects of religiosity for the Alawites are of the minimum importance. In particular, they perform namaz not five, but twice a day, and they may not even commit it at all. In Ramadan, the Alawites do not fast for a month, but only for a fortnight. In addition, the Alawites do not have a ban on the use of alcoholic beverages inherent to other Muslims. Moreover, the use of wine is ritual in Alawite. It is known that the Alawites are distinguished by extreme tolerance, and, if necessary, they can impersonate other religions - faith allows them to use this tactic (it is obvious that it was thanks to this behavior that the Alawites kept their faith and were able to survive in a hostile environment). However, on the part of the Muslims, especially the Sunnis, the Alawites are met with extremely hostile attitudes. Many Sunnis do not recognize the Alawite as a Muslim. Relations with the Shiites, on the contrary, are very friendly, especially after the middle 1970-s. Currently, Iran is the main strategic ally of the Syrian Alawites.

From the "social bottom" to the heights of power

It is known that already in the XVI century the Alawites gained a fairly strong position in several areas of the Levant, which even forced the Ottoman authorities to recognize the two ruling Alawite clans - the sheikhs Beni Hamadi and the emirs Harfush. At the same time, Istanbul made every effort to play on the contradictions of the Alawites, Druze and Ismailis, who periodically clashed with each other. During the Russian-Turkish war of 1768-1774. Alavite Sheikh Nasif Nassar sided with the Russian fleet. Recall that the Russian squadron of Admiral A.G. Orlova was sent to the Mediterranean Sea to block Turkish ships in the region. This was far from the only example of disloyalty of the Alawites of Ottoman Turkey. So, during Napoleon Bonaparte’s campaign in Egypt, the Alawites again opposed the Turks - this time on the side of the French army. However, after the defeat of the French troops, Turkish-Egyptian rulers unleashed their anger on the Alawite leaders. The massacre of the Alawites led to the destruction of many prominent Alawite sheikhs, and also deprived the Alawites of most of the territories they previously controlled. Only the mountainous territory in the Latakia region remained under the control of the Alavites. Since then, outside Latakia and Tartus, the Alawites have remained a marginal minority that occupied the lower floors of the social hierarchy of Syrian society. Their position was comparable to that of the Yezidis in Iraq or Turkey. If in the vicinity of Latakia the Alawites were engaged in traditional agriculture, then in other parts of Syria they had no choice but to take on unskilled and hard work. Laborers, janitors and cleaners, domestic workers in many cities in Syria were recruited from unemployed Alawites who migrated in search of employment from the territories of their compact residence. Since Sunni Muslims treated the Alawites with neglect and considered them heretics, in the Ottoman Empire the Alawites were doomed to a marginal social position and, moreover, were threatened with possible pogroms. The situation began to change rapidly after the end of the First World War, when the Ottoman Empire collapsed, and the Syrian lands fell under French control. Suddenly, representatives of all Syrian ethno-confessional groups of the population were in an equal position in front of the French military administration. At the same time, the Sunni Arabs, who constituted the majority of the population of Syria, maintained the hope of gaining independence from France and often raised anti-French uprisings. They were extremely reluctant to go to colonial service, unlike the Alawites and Christians. Syrian Christians, who had previously gravitated to intellectual and commercial activity, formed the basis of the Syrian Europeanized intelligentsia and the bourgeoisie, many of them then finally moved to Europe and Latin America.



As for the Alawites, military service remained for them the only channel of social mobility - the Alawites were disciplined people, but differed from Christians by a low level of education, being mainly peasants or artisans. In turn, the French military administration saw in the Alawites an excellent personnel resource for replenishing the personnel of the colonial troops stationed in Syria and Lebanon. Long-held grievances against the Sunni Arabs contributed to the fact that the Alawites gladly entered the service in the colonial troops. So, gradually, the Alawites began to penetrate the military elite of the Syrian society - many capable soldiers were trained in the only military school in the country and received officer ranks. The Syrian Legion was formed to carry guard service in Syria and suppress the rebellions that periodically flared up by the French, later renamed the Levant Special Forces. The personnel of the Levant Special Forces were recruited from representatives of national and religious minorities - Armenians, Druze, Circassians and Alawites. In this case, the Circassians recruited mainly in the cavalry, and the Alawites formed the basis of the colonial infantry. By the beginning of World War II, the Levant Special Forces, which consisted of 10-12 thousands of soldiers, sergeants and officers, included 10 infantry battalions, 4 cavalry squadrons, 3 companies of mecharists (camel cavalry), auxiliary and engineering units. These forces were stationed in Syria, and 9 Lebanese Jaeger companies and 22 cavalry squadrons, staffed by Circassians, Kurds and Druze, were deployed in Lebanon. Of the 10 Syrian infantry battalions, the 8 battalions were manned by Alawite recruited in villages in the mountains of Shara. In general, the Alawites constituted up to 80% of the personnel of the Levant Special Forces.

27 September 1941 France granted independence to Syria, but French troops remained in the country until 1946. The traditions of military service remained among the Alawites even after the proclamation of Syria’s political independence. Since the officers of the colonial troops, who formed the backbone of the commanding staff of the army of independent Syria, almost all came from various national minorities of the country, the political development of Syria was different from the neighboring Arab states. Sunni Arabs almost from the first years of the existence of the Syrian sovereign statehood were forced to compete for power with people from ethnic and religious minorities who had influence in the Syrian army. If Sunni Arabs were active in conservative and religious-fundamentalist organizations, the Alawites willingly joined the ranks of secular nationalist parties, including BAAS, the Arab Socialist Renaissance Party, created in 1947 by Orthodox Christian Michel Aflyak, the Sunni Arab Salah ad-Din al-Bitar and Alawiti Zaki al-Arsuzi. In Syria, the Alawites prevailed in the ranks of the Ba'ath Party, as well as in military service. It should be noted that the majority of Alawites who occupied leading positions in the party and army belonged to the Amma group, that is, the “uninitiated Alawites”, and therefore rather represented the Alawites not as a religious movement, but as a social group of the once deprived and oppressed people of Syria who managed to break out of the marginal position and become the true rulers of independent Syria.
Post-war Syria before 1970 was shaken by periodic coups and displacements of one ruler by another.

On November 13, 1970, 45 years ago, another military coup took place in Syria, which, as it turned out, was destined to change the political face of the Syrian state. At the head of the country stood the forty-year-old Hafez al-Assad. He was born on March 6, 1930 in the village of Kardakh, in the vicinity of Latakia, in an Alavite family and was the eighth child in the family of a simple peasant Suleiman al-Assad. When Syria gained independence, Hafez was 16 years old. Soon he entered the flight department of one of the military schools in Syria, and then - at the National Air Force Academy. The young officer joined the Baath Party and was soon able to occupy significant positions in it. By the way, when he was a captain of the Air Force, he did an internship in the USSR - on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. Gradually, Assad was able to actually take control of the “army” wing of the Ba'ath Party. He led a large number of Alawites to the party, increasing his authority in the Alavite environment through marriage to the representative of the noble Alavite family Anise Makhlyuf. In 1963, Hafez al-Assad was awarded the rank of Brigadier General aviation, after which he became commander of the Syrian Air Force and Air Defense. In 1966, a thirty-six-year-old general was appointed Minister of Defense of Syria. Having come to power, Hafez al-Assad made significant efforts to legitimize the Alawites in the Muslim world. Thanks to Assad’s position and its influence on Lebanese Shiites, the leader of the latter, Imam Musa al-Sadr, issued a fatwa back in 1973 recognizing the Alawites as one of the trends in Shiism. After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Tehran became one of Syria’s most reliable allies, along with Moscow. For many decades, the Tehran-Damascus bloc opposed in the Middle East the influence of the "oil" monarchies of the Persian Gulf, focused on supporting Sunni Arabs. Naturally, in Syria itself, the presence of the Alawite minority in power always caused discontent from other ethnic groups, especially Sunni Arabs, who make up at least 70-75% of the Syrian population, but never, since the advent of the Baath Party and, especially, Asad clan, to power in the country, did not have real political capabilities. Despite the fact that Hafez al-Assad, trying to secure his positions, strongly emphasized the equality of representatives of all faiths, and even General Syaf Mustafa Tlas, a Muslim Sunni, was appointed the Minister of Defense of Syria, in reality the most combat-ready army units, as well as special services, were mainly staffed by Alawites. Therefore, even the appointment of Sunnis to higher posts in the army and government did not satisfy the Arab-Sunni majority of the Syrian population.

The civil war in Syria and the prospects for the Alawites

Dissatisfaction with the almost half a century of Alawite rule spilled out in 2011, when, in the general context of the Arab Spring, inspired by the monarchies of the Persian Gulf and the West, protests began in Syria against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad. The bulk of the protesters were just Sunni Arabs, whose organizations receive more financial, organizational and military assistance from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The United States and Western Europe immediately sided with the anti-Assad opposition, trying to put Bashar al-Assad a bloody dictator, suppressing democratic freedoms. Despite the absurdity of the attempts of the American and European media to extradite religious extremists operating in Syria, as "democrats" and "fighters with the bloody regime", even now, after a bloody civil war has been going on for several years, the Western liberal public has not changes its position. At the same time, Western politicians, scholars and journalists diligently avoid the question of what awaits Syria and, in particular, the ethnic and religious minorities of the country in the event of the victory of the Sunni opposition, especially the forces of the Islamic State banned in Russia. Meanwhile, it is obvious that a mortal threat looms over the Christian and Alawite population of Syria. It can be said that in the battles fought by the government troops of Bashar al-Assad with extremists, the question of the fate of Christianity and non-Sunni Islam in this country is being resolved. After all, the IG and similar organizations set as their goal a complete cleansing of the country's territory from all other believers and dissidents. Among the radicals are the slogans "Christians to Lebanon" and "Alawites to the grave". That is, an even more terrible fate was prepared for the Alawites than for the Christian population.

Will Syria fall apart? The likelihood of the creation of the “Alawite State
- Bashar Assad, son of Hafez Assad and the current legitimate president of Syria

Alawites understand this very well, therefore they overwhelmingly support the government of Bashar al-Assad. It is the Alawites that make up the basis of the most combat-ready units of the Syrian army, fighting against the IS militants and other radical organizations. Fighters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemeni and Iraqi Shiites, as well as fighters of leftist organizations of Palestinian resistance controlled by Damascus are fighting on the side of Syria. On the side of Assad, the majority of the Alawites, the Ismailis, the Druze, the Christians, the majority of the Shiites of Syria, and even a part of the Syrian Sunni Arabs are currently speaking. That is, in fact, Assad is regarded as the only hope for almost all ethnic and religious minorities in Syria. The active role of Turkey in supporting the “Syrian opposition” of the Sunni Arabs has provided Assad with the support of the Ismailis, the Druze and the Christians, who have enormous historical resentment towards Turkey since the times of the Ottoman Empire. Most of the Syrian Sunnis are opposed to Assad, and this is a very numerous and serious force. Another thing is that the Sunnis of Syria are fragmented into many organizations that are funded and supported by various foreign "sponsors" and often quarrel with each other.

However, even after the Russian military aviation joined in the destruction of the IS in Syria, it is premature to say that Assad will be able to completely suppress the centers of resistance. Therefore, in the future, the scenario and the division of modern Syria along the model of neighboring Iraq — into practically independent state formations formed according to the ethno-confessional principle — are not excluded. On the other hand, neither the IS and other radical groups, nor the United States and the West will ever agree with such a model. Although many analysts say that the creation of an independent Alawite state - “Alavistan” - in the traditional residence of the Alawites, that is, on the Syrian coast of the Mediterranean Sea, with its center in Latakia, can be the way out. The isolation of Alavistan, Kurdistan, and possibly Druze and Shiite territories from modern Syria may be the logical outcome of a bloody civil war. However, the United States is unlikely to agree to create an Alawite state controlled by Assad, which will have access to the sea and maintain friendly relations with Russia and Iran. The American political scientist Benjamin Jensen spoke out quite succinctly about this. According to Jensen, the creation of an independent Alawite state will lead to disastrous consequences in the Middle East. But what does an American scientist consider a disaster? Jensen stresses that on the coast of Syria, there will be "a heavily armed uncontrolled regime that will act on the orders of Iran and guarantee Russia a deep-sea Mediterranean naval base in Tartus." That is, the American researcher openly admits that the United States, while supporting the anti-Assad opposition, is guided not by mythical considerations of “protecting democracy”, but by very specific goals to prevent the strengthening of the positions of Russia and Iran in the region. And it is precisely on the basis of this position that even a small Alawite state on the lands of the original Alawite residence of the United States is not beneficial - let it be better the IS, but not the Alawites who are friends with Russia and Iran. This is the approach. Another very dubious argument cited by an American political analyst is the probability of turning “Alavistan” into a criminalized state and a “paradise for terrorists”. The fact that this “paradise for terrorists” was created precisely on lands controlled by the anti-Assad opposition is a US researcher who prefers to remain silent. Finally, the creation of an Alawite state, according to Jensen, can become a “bad example” for other countries and peoples of the Middle East, first of all for Kurds of Syria, Iraq and Turkey, as well as for Turkish Alevis very confessional to Syrian Alawites. . For some reason, the American author believes that the Alawites have no right to create their own state, even in a situation that threatens their physical survival. What the Alawites in a hostile environment, ready to physically destroy them, an American who claims to be a political scientist and analyst, does not say. In fact, the position of the United States and a number of their allies means supporting the real genocide carried out by radical fundamentalists, referred to in the West as the “Syrian opposition,” against the Christian, Alawite and Shiite people of Syria.



If the Alawite state appears on a part of Syria, it can develop along the lines of Israel - relying on the support of other, more powerful countries (in this case Russia and Iran) and acting as an outpost against religious extremism in the Middle East. And, most likely, the Alawite state will also include Ismailis, partly Druze and all Syrian Christians - from Armenian Catholics and Greek Catholics to Orthodox Arabs and Assyrians. However, the option of creating an independent state of Alawites is an extreme option that allows Assad to retain power over a part of Syria and protect ethno-confessional minorities from the threat of destruction, but giving the majority of the country populated by Sunni Arabs at the mercy of radical organizations. Naturally, the latter in this situation will not stop the armed struggle, therefore, the Alawite state will have to actually constantly conduct military operations, in parallel with the formation of its own economy, which is a very difficult task. On the other hand, many experts doubt not only the feasibility, but also the possibility of creating an Alawite state, citing the large ethnic mixing of the Syrian population, including in the traditional Alawite regions of the country. Finally, it should be noted that the United States and the European Union, as well as the "oil" monarchies of the Persian Gulf will not abandon the use of any methods to further attack the Russian positions in the Middle East, so it is possible that in the case of the creation of the state of Alawites, provocations against it continue.
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  1. beitar
    beitar 12 October 2015 07: 23 New
    +1
    I agree with Polonsky. The case will end with the creation of an Alawite enclave on the coast, strategically important for Russia and with the Russian contingent. So we are doomed to be neighbors ...
    1. vorobey
      vorobey 12 October 2015 08: 08 New
      12
      Quote: beitar
      So we are doomed to be neighbors


      don’t need it so pessimistic, we don’t cut our heads .. knock on it is one thing but don’t cut it .. and you’re already about doom laughing
    2. Olezhek
      Olezhek 12 October 2015 09: 04 New
      +3
      So we are doomed to be neighbors ...


      Chyor poberi - but we are brotherly nations !! belay Why negative ???
      I thought all Israel sings and dances on this occasion.
    3. marlin1203
      marlin1203 12 October 2015 10: 27 New
      +6
      The "continental part" of Syria is not the most "tidbit, since it is mostly a desert area. VALUE, BASICLY IN TRANSIT. And at the pace at which the igil is now being cleaned, it may be possible to save the country entirely. The igils must not leave living space.
    4. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg 12 October 2015 11: 24 New
      +4
      Quote: beitar
      I agree with Polonsky. The case will end with the creation of an Alawite enclave on the coast, strategically important for Russia and with the Russian contingent. So we are doomed to be neighbors ...


      Specifically with you, even sitting on the same field would not become neighbors. Even if doomed.
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 12 October 2015 07: 47 New
    +6
    Very interesting information ... But I do not agree with the author ... The collapse of Syria is beneficial to many .. But it is unlikely to take place ... Thank you, Ilya ..
    1. atalef
      atalef 12 October 2015 10: 43 New
      -5
      Quote: parusnik
      Very interesting information

      The main thing is that
      However, on the part of Muslims, especially Sunnis, the Alawites are extremely hostile. Many Sunnis do not recognize the Alawites for Muslims at all.

      Then, if you look at the Alawite’s residence and the prospects for the creation of the Alawite state-- it’s clear that it will block the Sunnis from accessing the sea - and therefore the war will continue
      1. Or the Alawites
      2. Or Alavistan will shrink and give Sunni Syria access to the sea
      Conclusion the war will continue and 100% in the second option
      A sane person does not consider the option of the victory of Assad (Alawites) and their return and reign in Syria.
      1. Weyland
        Weyland 12 October 2015 12: 39 New
        +5
        Quote: atalef
        A sane person does not consider the option of the victory of Assad (Alawites) and their return and reign in Syria.


        Let's just say - a month ago no one was considering. But now everything can change ... wink
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. corporal
        corporal 12 October 2015 13: 41 New
        +2
        Quote: atalef
        2. Or Alavistan will shrink and give Sunni Syria access to the sea

        Or Sunni Syria will go to sea through Lebanon. Is such an option entitled to consideration?
        1. tilix
          tilix 12 October 2015 13: 47 New
          +2
          One must ask Lebanon and Hezbollah. In general, the north of Lebanon is in the majority Khrestian district. That's at their expense, it may happen, but still they must go through Syria.
        2. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 13: 59 New
          -1
          Quote: Corporal
          Or Sunni Syria will go to sea through Lebanon. Is such an option entitled to consideration?

          In case of victory, ISIS - the next is Lebanon.
        3. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 13: 59 New
          -1
          Quote: Corporal
          Or Sunni Syria will go to sea through Lebanon. Is such an option entitled to consideration?

          In case of victory, ISIS - the next is Lebanon.
      4. alicante11
        alicante11 12 October 2015 14: 28 New
        +3
        2. Or Alavistan will shrink and give Sunni Syria access to the sea


        Why is Sunni Syria access to the sea? What strategic can she export? If oil and gas, it’s easier to drop pipelines to Turkey than to bother with the creation / restoration of port infrastructure.

        A sane person does not consider the option of the victory of Assad (Alawites) and their return and reign in Syria.


        Exclusively because the "chosen" Assad, and, therefore, the Alawites are like a bone in the throat. Did it ever occur to you that they can win with our support?
        1. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 14: 36 New
          -5
          Quote: alicante11
          Why is Sunni Syria access to the sea?

          What do you think ?

          Quote: alicante11
          What strategic can she export? If oil and gas, it’s easier to drop pipelines to Turkey than to bother with the creation / restoration of port infrastructure.

          science fiction
          but not clear. that a country with access to the sea is open to the whole world and cannot be blocked by a simple ban on traveling through the territory of a neighboring state
          Quote: alicante11
          Exclusively because the "chosen" Assad, and therefore the Alawites, are like a bone in the throat

          To us - no, to the Sunnis - yes
          Quote: alicante11
          It never occurred to you that they could win with our support?


          No, that didn't come.
          1. alicante11
            alicante11 12 October 2015 15: 57 New
            +4
            What do you think ?


            And you do not poke me, I did not fry matzo with you on the coals.

            but not clear. that a country with access to the sea is open to the whole world and cannot be blocked by a simple ban on traveling through the territory of a neighboring state


            WHY do they need the whole world? Do they have money for Canary trips? Or do you mean the ability to safely transport terrorists to other countries? No, figs to you, let them go by land, and, accordingly, much closer.

            To us - no, to the Sunnis - yes


            Are you their mouthpiece? There is not a single Sunni in VO, but the Jews, probably, are crucifying for them against Assad.

            No, that didn't come.


            A person admits that he is limited in something, which means that not everything is lost with him.
      5. Awaz
        Awaz 12 October 2015 16: 48 New
        +2
        Assad’s victory and confederation, I can save the situation. There, in any case, the population has been mixed for a long time and it will probably be difficult to divide families.
      6. Volzhanin
        Volzhanin 12 October 2015 22: 39 New
        +1
        Everything will be as Russia needs.
        The rest is from the evil one.
    2. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg 12 October 2015 11: 25 New
      +4
      Quote: parusnik
      Very interesting information ... But I do not agree with the author ... The collapse of Syria is beneficial to many .. But it is unlikely to take place ... Thank you, Ilya ..


      The general line of thought is that it can be described in one phrase: "Syria must cease to exist" we have already heard this from one stupid woman.
  3. Igor39
    Igor39 12 October 2015 08: 03 New
    +3
    Destroy all Sunni radicals! Without this, peace in Syria is not possible, all Wahhabis and other radical morons to the grave.
    1. vorobey
      vorobey 12 October 2015 08: 15 New
      +3
      Quote: Igor39
      Destroy all Sunni radicals! Without this, peace in Syria is not possible, all Wahhabis and other radical morons to the grave.


      you are just kindness itself ..
      1. atalef
        atalef 12 October 2015 10: 46 New
        -7
        Quote: vorobey
        Destroy all Sunni radicals! Without this, peace in Syria is not possible, all Wahhabis and other radical morons to the grave.

        And there are Sunnis 70% of the population.
        Actually, someone believes (let's tell the truth, one of the few real articles about the religious structure in Syria, the role of England and all problems)
        1. Weyland
          Weyland 12 October 2015 12: 37 New
          +4
          Quote: atalef
          And there are Sunnis 70% of the population.


          Remind the story of Periander and Cleobulus, with "plucking the tallest ears"? Zero is enough a few percent of these 70% - and quietness and smoothness will come. It’s also useful to learn from Fidel’s experience - to send all those disloyal to their beloved Saudis!
        2. aleks 62 next
          aleks 62 next 13 October 2015 11: 05 New
          +1
          ..... And there are Sunnis 70% of the population ....

          .... Sunites are also heterogeneous .... There are a lot of different nationalities and communities that do not really communicate with each other and, in principle, everyone is "for himself" .... And they will follow the one who is stronger at the moment .. ..Well, such an oriental mentality ... :)))) .... Most likely for them (Sunnis) - a bad world is better than raking "gifts" ....
      2. atalef
        atalef 12 October 2015 10: 46 New
        -3
        Quote: vorobey
        Destroy all Sunni radicals! Without this, peace in Syria is not possible, all Wahhabis and other radical morons to the grave.

        And there are Sunnis 70% of the population.
        Actually, someone believes (let's tell the truth, one of the few real articles about the religious structure in Syria, the role of England and all problems)
        1. alicante11
          alicante11 12 October 2015 14: 29 New
          +4
          They told you the radicals. But not all radicals. There are always fewer fools than normal people.
    2. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 12 October 2015 10: 29 New
      +3
      Quote: Igor39
      Destroy all Sunni radicals! Without this, peace in Syria is not possible, all Wahhabis and other radical morons to the grave.

      To do this, it is necessary to inflict a massive blow on the infrastructure of Said Arabia and Qatar with their fisheries.
      Then, reconciliation and the transition to sheep husbandry with the cultivation of dates will begin throughout the Middle East.
      1. abrakadabre
        abrakadabre 12 October 2015 16: 25 New
        +1
        But for all who now live off oil, there are not enough date palms and sheep. The desert is also a desert, which has low productivity per unit area. So then there will be a massacre of all against all for living space. But that is their business. It was not necessary to destroy the neighbors.
    3. Volzhanin
      Volzhanin 12 October 2015 22: 45 New
      +1
      Better of course the Anglo-Saxons for a start. The benefits of our Planet from this would be far greater. Were it not for this rubbish-Englishwoman, the Sunnis with Shiites and other ites would not know what they should be at enmity with.
  4. Deniska999
    Deniska999 12 October 2015 08: 03 New
    -1
    Apparently the thing is going to that. Assad does not have the strength to return all of Syria. Therefore, sooner or later it will be necessary to stop at the creation of a new, Alawite Syria.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 12 October 2015 13: 53 New
      +1
      Quote: Deniska999
      Apparently the thing is going to that. Assad does not have the strength to return all of Syria. Therefore, sooner or later it will be necessary to stop at the creation of a new, Alawite Syria.

      Assad once said that if he needs it for the country, he will leave, and so they may well roll out such a requirement that if he wants to keep a single country, he must leave or share power, and that’s the same as leaving him, only a process extended in time
  5. inkass_98
    inkass_98 12 October 2015 08: 07 New
    +4
    The question of the future of Syria, of course, is interesting. Its collapse is quite probable, but there is one more aspect that the author did not touch upon - the Kurds. That's who will ultimately benefit from the destruction of ISIS. In any case, they will demand wide autonomy, if not statehood, in Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. And after all, they really are at war with the Moorfish, they are at war successfully for one simple reason - it is a matter of their survival as a people. I personally treat them quite negatively, but to destroy people only because they are of the wrong faith and customs is somehow wrong.
    The creation of Kurdistan is more than likely, but its further fate is a mystery.
    1. tracker
      tracker 12 October 2015 09: 06 New
      +3
      most likely alteration of the borders of Syria, Iraq, and maybe Turkey with the formation of Kurdistan, I think Russia will not mind. Erdogan behaves inappropriately, most likely he will be replaced soon, the Turks themselves are unhappy with him
    2. atalef
      atalef 12 October 2015 10: 52 New
      -3
      Quote: inkass_98
      The question of the future of Syria, of course, is interesting. Its collapse is quite likely, but there is one more aspect that the author did not touch upon - Kurds

      Forget about the Kurds, the unfortunate 40mln people, but scattered across the 4-m states and never wants to create a Kurdistan

      Quote: inkass_98
      That's who will ultimately benefit from the destruction of ISIS.

      Lord, how do you not understand. ISIS is not an army. it is an ideology. To defeat the ideology, you can only give something in return.
      This is the ideology of the Sunnis of Iraq and Syria in the fight against Shiites and Alawites (well, and other heretics in the heap - such as the Isis).
      Quote: inkass_98
      in any case, they will demand wide autonomy for themselves, if not statehood, in Syria, and Iraq, and in Turkey

      laughed, in Iraq they already have autonomy - practically a state.
      Barzani gets along well with this and will not share his power with anyone with the Syrian. nor with Turkish Kurds. and to get statehood from the Turks is generally from the realm of fiction
      1. wanderer_032
        wanderer_032 12 October 2015 11: 34 New
        +4
        Quote: atalef
        Forget about the Kurds, the unfortunate 40mln people, but scattered across the 4-m states and never wants to create a Kurdistan


        But the Kurds themselves very much want it. And as you mentioned, there are 40 millions of them. This is as much as the population of Ukraine before the February events of last year.
        1. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 11: 41 New
          -6
          Quote: wanderer_032
          But the Kurds themselves very much want it

          sense then?

          Quote: wanderer_032
          This is as much as the population of Ukraine before the February events of last year.

          and now what?
          1. wanderer_032
            wanderer_032 12 October 2015 11: 44 New
            +3
            Quote: atalef
            sense then?


            So they’ll build it. If not today, then in the future.

            Quote: atalef
            and now what?


            Yes, nothing. But ignoring 40 of millions of people is impossible. Fact.
            1. atalef
              atalef 12 October 2015 11: 51 New
              -1
              Quote: wanderer_032
              So they’ll build it. If not today, then in the future.

              no one knows the future

              Quote: wanderer_032
              Yes, nothing. But ignoring 40 of millions of people is impossible. Fact.

              only they (today) do not perceive themselves as one whole people and the gap between the Kurds of Iraq (under the control of Barzani) and the Turkish Kurds is huge. And without the cohesive power and desire of leadership - this is not real. and even in the conditions of confrontation and the countries where they live - they turn this idea into a zilch.
              1. wanderer_032
                wanderer_032 12 October 2015 11: 59 New
                +2
                Quote: atalef
                The gap between the Kurds of Iraq (under the control of Barzani) and the Turkish Kurds is huge.


                And what does this gulf consist of?
                1. atalef
                  atalef 12 October 2015 12: 01 New
                  -2
                  Quote: wanderer_032
                  Quote: atalef
                  The gap between the Kurds of Iraq (under the control of Barzani) and the Turkish Kurds is huge.


                  And what does this gulf consist of?

                  In tribal relations. varying degrees of religiosity and personal ambitions of leadership
                  1. wanderer_032
                    wanderer_032 12 October 2015 12: 17 New
                    +1
                    Quote: atalef
                    In tribal relations. varying degrees of religiosity and personal ambitions of leadership


                    That is, everything is as always. And what do you think that this is the very main reason why the Kurds are not able to unite and create their own state? But this is ridiculous. Because in any country in the world there are exactly the same problems in tribal relations, varying degrees of religiosity, etc. And this somehow does not bother anyone living in one country.
                    But in Israel this does not bother you to live, although if you look from the side there you have such a quiche-mish that you won’t understand without half a liter. And even more. lol
            2. atalef
              atalef 12 October 2015 11: 51 New
              -4
              Quote: wanderer_032
              So they’ll build it. If not today, then in the future.

              no one knows the future

              Quote: wanderer_032
              Yes, nothing. But ignoring 40 of millions of people is impossible. Fact.

              only they (today) do not perceive themselves as one whole people and the gap between the Kurds of Iraq (under the control of Barzani) and the Turkish Kurds is huge. And without the cohesive power and desire of leadership - this is not real. and even in the conditions of confrontation and the countries where they live - they turn this idea into a zilch.
              1. ilyaros
                12 October 2015 13: 52 New
                +1
                And then there is a big ideological difference. Much of the Turkish Kurds and Kurds of Syria are influenced by the PKK (ideas of Ocalan), and the Iraqi ones are followers of Barzani
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. Weyland
          Weyland 12 October 2015 12: 42 New
          +1
          Quote: wanderer_032
          And they as you mentioned - 40 million.


          Divided by dozens of tribesthat many centuries enthusiastically cut together... wink
        4. The comment was deleted.
    3. atalef
      atalef 12 October 2015 10: 52 New
      -2
      Quote: inkass_98
      The question of the future of Syria, of course, is interesting. Its collapse is quite likely, but there is one more aspect that the author did not touch upon - Kurds

      Forget about the Kurds, the unfortunate 40mln people, but scattered across the 4-m states and never wants to create a Kurdistan

      Quote: inkass_98
      That's who will ultimately benefit from the destruction of ISIS.

      Lord, how do you not understand. ISIS is not an army. it is an ideology. To defeat the ideology, you can only give something in return.
      This is the ideology of the Sunnis of Iraq and Syria in the fight against Shiites and Alawites (well, and other heretics in the heap - such as the Isis).
      Quote: inkass_98
      in any case, they will demand wide autonomy for themselves, if not statehood, in Syria, and Iraq, and in Turkey

      laughed, in Iraq they already have autonomy - practically a state.
      Barzani gets along well with this and will not share his power with anyone with the Syrian. nor with Turkish Kurds. and to get statehood from the Turks is generally from the realm of fiction
      1. wanderer_032
        wanderer_032 12 October 2015 11: 42 New
        +4
        Quote: atalef
        Lord, how do you not understand. ISIS is not an army. it is an ideology.


        This is an artificially created ideology. The same as fascism (without exaggeration, even more disgusting). Only it is harbored on a religious basis, not political.

        Quote: atalef
        To defeat the ideology, you can only give something in return.


        So Russia offers in return - normal international law within the UN. Instead of the lawlessness that is happening not only in the Middle East. But no one wants to listen. Everyone thinks that they are the most cunning .. on this planet and they themselves can do whatever they like. From this and all the problems.
        1. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 14: 09 New
          -2
          Quote: wanderer_032
          This is an artificially created ideology.

          Any ideology is artificial
          Quote: wanderer_032
          Only it is harbored on a religious basis, not political.

          Therefore, it’s much stronger since it is much easier to abandon political views than religious
          Quote: wanderer_032
          So Russia offers in return - normal international law within the UN

          What planet are you from?
          Quote: wanderer_032
          Instead of the lawlessness that is happening not only in the Middle East.


          And who is this international law within the UN laughing , what did you call it will be installed in Syria?
        2. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 14: 09 New
          -2
          Quote: wanderer_032
          This is an artificially created ideology.

          Any ideology is artificial
          Quote: wanderer_032
          Only it is harbored on a religious basis, not political.

          Therefore, it’s much stronger since it is much easier to abandon political views than religious
          Quote: wanderer_032
          So Russia offers in return - normal international law within the UN

          What planet are you from?
          Quote: wanderer_032
          Instead of the lawlessness that is happening not only in the Middle East.


          And who is this international law within the UN laughing , what did you call it will be installed in Syria?
  6. VL33
    VL33 12 October 2015 08: 14 New
    +3
    This is not a quick process, but Russia in Syria to preserve the state and influence in this region (politics, bases, oil, etc.) So that is not a fact that the section will happen time will tell.
  7. aszzz888
    aszzz888 12 October 2015 08: 39 New
    +4
    It is not often possible to see Syrian President B Assad in uniform. Nothing, she goes to him.
    And about the post-war structure of statehood in Syria, you need to think.
    War is war, but it will come to an end. Let us hope that with the victory of B. Assad, otherwise it is impossible - neither to the Syrians, nor to us.
  8. beitar
    beitar 12 October 2015 08: 53 New
    -1
    Quote: Igor39
    Destroy all Sunni radicals! Without this, peace in Syria is not possible, all Wahhabis and other radical morons to the grave.



    And why are Hezbollah Shiites better than ISIS Sunnis? There are no good and bad terrorists. Plague on both of their houses)))
  9. Olezhek
    Olezhek 12 October 2015 09: 02 New
    +2
    Let's look a little. The disintegration of Syria is an endless war of all against all years on 20.
    1. atalef
      atalef 12 October 2015 10: 53 New
      -8
      Quote: Olezhek
      Let's have a look. The collapse of Syria is an endless war of all against all years for 20

      While Assad is in power, the war will continue
      1. vorobey
        vorobey 12 October 2015 12: 21 New
        +8
        Quote: atalef
        While Assad is in power, the war will continue


        and how many Assad (both senior and younger) were in power and there was no war .. laughing it's not Assad then .. well, finally admit .. fool hi
        1. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 12: 32 New
          -3
          Quote: vorobey
          and how many Assad (both senior and younger) were in power and there was no war

          Under Assad (papa) there were no wars?
          Well 4 with Israel suppose not to count
          The fact that they occupied the half of Lebanon and partly cut
          at home - read it. what dad did with Mr. Hama
          Well, son - how much did he manage to correct?
          Quote: vorobey
          it's not Assad then .. well, finally admit ..

          but that he alavit.
          If there was a Sunni - this would not be.
        2. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 12: 32 New
          -3
          Quote: vorobey
          and how many Assad (both senior and younger) were in power and there was no war

          Under Assad (papa) there were no wars?
          Well 4 with Israel suppose not to count
          The fact that they occupied the half of Lebanon and partly cut
          at home - read it. what dad did with Mr. Hama
          Well, son - how much did he manage to correct?
          Quote: vorobey
          it's not Assad then .. well, finally admit ..

          but that he alavit.
          If there was a Sunni - this would not be.
          1. Throw
            Throw 12 October 2015 20: 49 New
            +3
            This would not have happened if Westerners, Jews and Saudis would not have climbed everywhere in a row.
            What is written in the article.
    2. atalef
      atalef 12 October 2015 10: 53 New
      -2
      Quote: Olezhek
      Let's have a look. The collapse of Syria is an endless war of all against all years for 20

      While Assad is in power, the war will continue
      1. Igor39
        Igor39 12 October 2015 11: 51 New
        +4
        Well, if Assad leaves, stop cutting and burning, trade in people, Christians, Druze and Alawites? Once Assad leaves, there such a massacre will begin.
        1. atalef
          atalef 12 October 2015 11: 55 New
          -5
          Quote: Igor39
          Well, if Assad leaves, stop cutting and burning, trade in people, Christians, Druze and Alawites?

          Well, Christians and especially Druze - so far no one is trading.
          Without Assad’s departure, this is definitely not going to end. although (in my opinion) even now it does not play a role.
          I wrote this 2 years ago. Syria as a state-no more and never will be.
          Assad’s departure can only give some impetus to the beginning of at least some kind of dialogue.
          It is useless to him with him. Assad in Syria (Sunni) is the personification of evil and there will be no dialogue with him.
      2. Olezhek
        Olezhek 12 October 2015 12: 33 New
        +4
        Asad, as if in power ... and it looks like a completely hearty look (healthier Medvedev is much slimmer), so what's the problem !?
        All progressive Middle Eastern population must support it!
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  13. Terrible ensign
    Terrible ensign 12 October 2015 09: 25 New
    +2
    Very interesting. Thanks to the author for a detailed historical excursion.
    The collapse of Syria with the formation of the Alawite multiconfessional and multi-ethnic state is one of the possible options for the development of the situation, but so far not categorically defined. We are closely watching. Intervention in the conflict between Russia and Iran is capable, it seems to me, of preventing the collapse of the state. Although the unresolved Kurdish issue should not be discounted. History is happening before our eyes.
  14. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 12 October 2015 10: 14 New
    0
    The article is good. But I will not assume anything. We’ll see in half a year, maybe then it will be possible to predict something.
  15. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 12 October 2015 10: 35 New
    0
    Great article. The most sensible of all that I
    had a chance to read about Syria.
    1. atalef
      atalef 12 October 2015 10: 59 New
      -5
      Quote: voyaka uh
      Great article. The most sensible of all that I
      had a chance to read about Syria.

      I agree, maybe now someone will understand that the religious war and its foundation lies in such fundamental disagreements that it is impossible to solve this without the division of Syria.
      Sunnis will never go under the Alawites and Shiites - never.
      Ending the war is admitting. that the Shiite Alawites did them, they won’t survive this in the very first elections (if we say hypothetically they will, they will discard Assad and transfer the Alawites democratically)
      Assad perfectly understands all this, I think, and in Russia they understand.
      What a way out, but not it in the short term. More precisely, there is. Assad renounces, gives access to the Sunni sea.
      Then. still can. something will stop. and by force - Assad will eventually be overwhelmed or Syria will turn into a second Afghanistan, with endless war.
      1. wanderer_032
        wanderer_032 12 October 2015 11: 50 New
        +6
        Quote: atalef
        What a way out, but not it in the short term. More precisely, there is. Assad renounces, gives access to the Sunni sea.


        There is another option. Assad remains, and the bearded receive such a kick that they are not up to going to sea, at least for 100. They want the sea? Suitcase - Station - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE. There are seas in bulk.
        1. abrakadabre
          abrakadabre 12 October 2015 16: 35 New
          +2
          Let ISIS people make their way to the sea through East Jordan and the Saudis.
          I see that instead of the first option for the destruction of Syria, they begin to offer the same horseradish from another side - the partition of Syria.
        2. Volzhanin
          Volzhanin 12 October 2015 22: 58 New
          +1
          The most realistic option!
          Anglozhidosaksam complete bummer.
          Therefore, as soon as Syria falls, the 3rd World War will begin from the land of Iran, in which Russia will survive due to its vast territory.
      2. vorobey
        vorobey 12 October 2015 16: 59 New
        +3
        Quote: atalef
        I agree, maybe now someone will understand that the religious war and its foundation lies in such fundamental disagreements that it is impossible to solve this without the division of Syria.


        And let's divide Jerusalem .. repeat Maybe Sanya will improve with Palestine .. recourse
  16. elenagromova
    elenagromova 12 October 2015 11: 23 New
    12
    And what about the fact that the Alawites live in all the provinces of Syria? There are enough of them both in Damascus, and in Homs, and in the cities of the province of Hama. You can’t select them separately on the coast. Yes, and on the coast there are mostly Sunni settlements, such, for example, Baniyas, located between Latakia and Tartus.
    So just to separate the coast from everything else is not an option.
    And then there are Christians and Druze. That such an option threatens genocide.
    Rescue from terrorists need all of Syria.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. atalef
      atalef 12 October 2015 11: 31 New
      -9
      Quote: elenagromova
      But what about the fact that the Alawites live in all the provinces of Syria?

      Elena, you already know that they lived in their enclaves and large cities (where they were pulled into good positions by Assad).
      Do not tell tales of either the Druze or the Alawites. nor the Yezidis - never lived in mixed settlements, but exclusively with themselves.
      Quote: elenagromova
      There are enough of them in Damascus, and in Homs, and in the cities of the province of Hama

      cities, right Elena? And where did they come from there?
      Quote: elenagromova
      Selecting them separately on the coast will not work.

      They always lived there and they are already there - almost everything
      Quote: elenagromova
      And on the coast there are mainly Sunni settlements, such as, for example, Banias, located between Latakia and Tartus.

      And how much more? couple - three villages?
      Quote: elenagromova
      So just separating the coast from everything else is not an option

      And what is the solution? Or do you still believe. that Assad and the Alawites return to rule Syria?
      Quote: elenagromova
      And there are still Christians and Druze.

      That Druze only in general mess did not go.
      By the way, Christians have almost all left. and to friends - no one is scampering yet
      Quote: elenagromova
      Which this option threatens with genocide

      Of course, there may be such an option - therefore, the separation of Syria inevitably and actually happened, and the Druze - they will have their own state (our Druze are talking about this strenuously).
      Quote: elenagromova
      It is necessary to save from terrorists all Syria

      So according to your preferences (for some reason you never once mentioned 70% of the country's population - Sunnis) - there are all terrorists.
      1. The comment was deleted.
        1. abrakadabre
          abrakadabre 12 October 2015 16: 40 New
          +2
          Or is it a look through a government television point?
          This is a quote from the training manual. smile
          The main thing in this is that the normal state is being removed. Instead, a bunch of small principalities the size of a village is made. With whom then, as you like, and vert. Alone, they are not rivals. And so, God forbid, do not unite even in the ghostly future, they can be pitted further. You look, every street in the villages will demand independence. There, you can digest them one by one, as Palestine is digested.
  17. Tektor
    Tektor 12 October 2015 12: 02 New
    +2
    A state is formed under the auspices of security provided by the armed forces. If the armed forces of the state are able to defend this territory, then such territory will become part of the state. But this is only a necessary condition, but not yet quite sufficient. It also requires economic feasibility, i.e. the ability of the state to provide a minimum subsistence level for the population of a given territory, i.e. supply of energy, food and water. Moreover, in an arid climate, water supply is key. If the sources of water supply are not under the full control of the state, then it is better to leave this territory under a confederate device.
  18. Wolka
    Wolka 12 October 2015 12: 31 New
    +3
    it is unacceptable to build a federal state on the basis of a religious principle, by definition religion cannot stand above state interests, therefore the state must always remain secular, because religion is something purely personal, more precisely my faith and only mine, and the state is something more, in the name of all and for all, no matter what religion you adhere to, i.e. public interests should clearly prevail over private and local ...
  19. Olezhek
    Olezhek 12 October 2015 12: 41 New
    +3
    I would wait with mesyatsok - looked, what will end blows VKS ...
    No time for nuts C
    Forecasts had to be done either before or after the operation of the VKS, now - a fork.
    1. vorobey
      vorobey 12 October 2015 13: 05 New
      +2
      Quote: Olezhek
      I would wait with mesyatsok - looked, what will end blows VKS ...


      wang ... initiative will be intercepted by the sun ... laughing
    2. vorobey
      vorobey 12 October 2015 13: 09 New
      +1
      Quote: Olezhek
      I would wait with mesyatsok - looked, what will end blows VKS ...


      wang ... initiative will be intercepted by the sun ... laughing
  20. tilix
    tilix 12 October 2015 13: 12 New
    +2
    According to some observers, the preconditions for the disintegration of Syria began with the implementation of many land reclamation projects in Turkey, which several times reduced the flow of fresh water to Syria. As a result, many “dekhans” were left out of business, and therefore “descended from the mountains”.
    Given this opinion, it remains to be seen how this conflict will be resolved after, say, the separation of Syria. Will Turkey supply the Sunites with water? and Druzov? What price will she (Turkey) ask for this?
    And this is far from the only underlying conflict in Syria. Bashar, even if he remains only at the head of the Alawite enclave, or his associates, will never forgive such a thing. Here the sulkhoi (الصلحة - the rite of reconciliation among the Arabs) is indispensable.
  21. Victor-M
    Victor-M 12 October 2015 13: 52 New
    +2
    The civil war in Syria presents the country with quite tangible prospects of disintegration into several sovereign states. At least, such a scenario is increasingly being discussed by Russian and Western political scientists. The price that each side of the Syrian conflict has already paid for its “truth” is too high.

    Why not so easily speculate about the prospects of the collapse of Ukraine, Western Europe, England and of course the United States, because there are also many individuals who hate each other, which is not the reason for the parade of sovereignty? what laughing
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 12 October 2015 15: 12 New
      +3
      The collapse of Syria and the victory of the terrorists cannot be allowed in any case the result of this will be a massacre and massacres with the expansion of the terrorist state and the war on BV.
      This situation is beneficial only to the United States, the Wahhabis and the ruling elite of Israel seeking to unleash chaos at our borders and the borders of our allies. Syria has always been a multinational and multiconfessional country and what is happening there is largely caused by interference from abroad. The destruction of this center, where various religions have peacefully coexisted for centuries, and its separation according to the religious principle will only lead to an even greater war in the region.
  22. Roust
    Roust 12 October 2015 14: 59 New
    +3
    It will be difficult for us, Russia, however .... In any of the options. But I am for the preservation of our bases in Syria and influence in the Middle East, so for this authority + the situation of deterrence of western hyenas will have to pay a lot of money and not one year, I think. For many years to come, we will have to restore the fact that the traitor to the hunchback with the drunk Yeltsin profiled.
  23. mvg
    mvg 12 October 2015 16: 57 New
    -2
    And what is the GDP planning? Which option do you agree to? To get involved in a long company of Russia is now not with your hands. What for us Afghanistan?
    The article is really professional. Ideological problems are not solved by force of arms. Not 37 years old. We also do not need a Sunni leader. Immediately the base of Tartus and Latakia will not be. And you can’t give access to the sea - it’s a pity. Weaken the opposition as much as possible so that Assad and Iran will decide everything. Something to help in a neighborly way so that Turkey does not climb, Israel does not bomb the reactors, and somehow deal with the Saudis .. at least for neutrality or something ... although this is unlikely.
    Has Russia not missed the time to "help"? Appetite appeared with eating. There was a time when everything, as it is, could be left with political reforms and minimal support. And not when behind 8% of the territory and 30 years of war, and most of the oil from the enemies, to which Turkey has already got used to.
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 12 October 2015 19: 04 New
      +2
      Quote: mvg
      so that Assad with Iran himself decided everything

      We need to give them weapons, advisers, intelligence and cover up politically - to stop or at least significantly weaken the support of militants from the USA, EU, Israel, Turkey, PZ monarchies and the war will definitely end with Assad's victory.
      1. padded jacket
        padded jacket 12 October 2015 19: 08 New
        +1
        By the way, an approximate map of the number of Sunnis and Shiites in the region, to the question of the so-called "Shiite belt".
  24. link
    link 12 October 2015 21: 00 New
    +1
    Today, media reported that the Syrian opposition has entered into an alliance with the Kurds. So, IMHO, Syria will break up into 4 states: 1.Alawites with their Assad, 2.Sunites, 3. Shiites and 4. Kurds. The first 3 are irreconcilable enemies, and the Kurds have long dreamed of their own state, but nothing shines for them in Turkey, and in Syria it may work ...
  25. traveler
    traveler 12 October 2015 22: 02 New
    -1
    rarity on this site, sensible article about Syria. as I understood from the comments, the majority of local readers opened their eyes a little on the background of this mess.
    I will correct the author a little about the parallels between the Syrian Alawites and Turkish Alevi.
    There are widespread versions about the origin of the Alawites of Syria and the Alevites of Turkey close to them from the Syrians, Greeks and Armenians

    after all, the Turkish Alevites come from Kara-Koyunlu and Kyzylbash, therefore they were always close to Persia (not to be confused with the current Iran, since from the 16th to the 19th century it was mainly a Turkic Shiite state - Safavids, Nadir, Khajars), i.e. . the Turks and partly under their influence the Kurds, and the Syrian Alawites are still local Aramaeans, un-Islamized.