Military Review

Counted cons

Sanctions measures against Russia have caused tremendous damage to the “sanctioners” themselves. According to the Center for Strategic Studies Bow Group (UK), the financial costs of the West from imposing sanctions on the Russian Federation may exceed 755 billions of dollars. Is it a lot or a little? A lot: about the same amount of money the United States spends on the annual military budget, called the "defense".

Rakesh Krishnan Simha (Rakesh Krishnan Simha) in the publication Russia and India Report He said that the sanctions are much more harmful to the prohibitors than to Russia.

It seems to the analyst that economic sanctions against Russia “hit hard” by their initiators. The UK’s oldest conservative brain trust, Bow Group, has published an article that estimated the loss of Eastern Europe and the Western countries as a whole from sanctions against Russia. The report says that the financial costs of imposing sanctions could exceed $ 755 billion, which is about the same as the annual “defense” budget of the United States.

The document lists on probable losses by country.

The UK will receive a minus of 9,6 billion dollars in exports, lose 119.000 jobs and lose 41 billion dollars in the form of Russian capital invested in the country.

The US economy is waiting for losses in the amount of $ 137 billion (trade). The amount includes $ 38 billion in exports and up to 30 billion dollars in US capital frozen by the Russians.

Why it happens? The analyst proposes to seek the answer primarily in oil prices. He considers the oil sector "key".

In September 2014, the Russian oil giant Rosneft and ExxonMobil (USA) announced the discovery of a huge new oil field in the Kara Sea northeast of Murmansk. There are an estimated nine billion barrels of oil there. At current prices, about 43 trillion. dollars (forty three annual income of Australia).

The bosses of "Exxon" barely had time to drink a glass or two, as an unexpected hangover burst out, an observer sneers. The ban on the US government working in conjunction with the Russian Federation forced the company to withdraw its partnership with Rosneft.

Strategic risk consultant and publicist William Engdal believes that the losses of an American company lead to profits for the Russians. For more than two decades, Russian oil companies have dreamed of this oil “fountain”. Finally, the resources of Exxon and Rosneft were involved, and finally production in the Arctic began to unfold. The first - and the most expensive in stories ExxonMobil well cost $ 600 million. And what? According to Engdal, for Rosneft it was very successful that ExxonMobil was forced to leave just after the most difficult and difficult part of the project was completed.

According to the expert, before the Ukrainian crisis, Russia had always tried to limit the participation of foreign shareholders in its state-owned oil and gas companies. What is happening now? And now, ironically, the American strategy for implementation has reached a dead end. Strategists observe the opposite of what they had hoped for in Eurasia. The situation radically changed when Russia began to deepen its energy ties with China.

According to Stephen Kinzer of Brown University, Washington itself pushed the Russians “toward China,” encouraging partnership with sanctions. And this partnership later "can grow into a real threat to American influence." In addition, the partnership of Russia and China can be transformed into a full-fledged military alliance.

Other measures aimed against Russia also returned as a boomerang, according to Rakesh Krishnan Simha.

When the United States ("in collusion with its sidekick friend Saudi Arabia") began to play for a fall in oil prices, they hardly knew that they themselves would fall into the pit they had dug. With oil prices falling below 50 dollars per barrel, the United States has put its own oil sector to serious testing.

Low oil prices have led to cuts in investment across America. By UPI data, 1,5 trillion dollars of investments intended for the exploration of new oil fields and the development of projects are now virtually frozen. Total frozen 40 major projects.

Falling investment has an impact on production. Experts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries note that in the United States there is a production response to a decline in investment activity. In short, everyone just asserts how quickly US production falls. What will happen? No wonder: America can say goodbye to its plans to be an oil exporter, writes a columnist.

Further, he talks about the "financial harakiri."

Finance - the foundation of the western economic system. Its two main “nerve centers” are in New York and London. The confidence of the world in this system means its stability. But the trouble is: the results of the sanctions are destroying confidence in the well-being of the Western financial system. The capitalists are redirecting financial flows towards Shanghai. It does not take them much time: unlike investments in automobile factories or machine-building enterprises, it is easy to redirect financial flows.

So who really lost? Here is an unexpected winner: the Chinese system "UnionPay", which has previously successfully competed with "Visa" and "MasterCard". The tendency of the West to sanctions, including pressure through payment systems, undoubtedly prompted the Chinese to "redouble their efforts."

Denial of access to Western capital markets undermines their attractiveness to borrowers from other regions, the analyst believes. In India and Iran, in the past affected by Western sanctions, it is likely that in the future they will be very careful with "changeable Western capital."

Well, what about Russia? Russian companies are currently looking for funding in the PRC, the author writes. China, after all, has foreign exchange reserves worth 3,3 trillion. In addition, private Russian companies may borrow from the New Development Bank BRICS, as well as from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank established by Beijing.

What Russia is doing in the oil market now might seem illogical. After all, it pumps out even more oil, more supplies to global markets than before. But we must understand that in this way Moscow protects its market share. If the Russians had retreated, it would have been tantamount to suicide: Saudi Arabia would immediately devour their share.

In addition, Russians are looking for and finding alternatives for various products (such as French cheese and Italian olive oil).

And another thing: the fall of the ruble led to a rise in prices for many imported goods and at the same time to the acquisition by Russians of cheap local products. This is useful for the national economy.

Other countries looking with interest at the economic war between the West and Russia can also replace Western goods and services and thereby strengthen their own economy - right along the lines of Russia, while avoiding the diversion of wealth beyond the border.

So what should the affected West do? Maybe stop deepening the hole - otherwise you won't get out of it yourself? However, the author doubts the ability of Americans and Western politicians in general not only to solve problems, but even to understand them.

Rakesh Simha, apparently, right, add on my own. We must also add a few words about perseverance, with which the Americans not only do not revise the policy of sanctions, but even prepare to tighten it.

4 October The Wall Street Journal said that in both Ukraine and Syria, the Obama administration, “not understanding the goals of Putin," allowed a number of "costly failures."

But does Washington change its approach? Hardly, writes edition.

Yes, and the Congress will not "sit back." The introduction of new sanctions against Russia is already being worked out here. These sanctions "US lawmakers will be able to send a powerful signal to Moscow." What kind of signal? The Russians must understand that they are still considered the “aggressors” in Ukraine, and they are also “complicit in the genocide in Syria”. And they will have to pay for this "high price."

Congress may adopt new sanctions that will have a direct and profound impact on the Russian oil refining industry, the magazine said. Russian refineries may be the most vulnerable because their refining capacity is outdated, product quality is low, and infrastructure needs considerable investment. The refining infrastructure is so weak, the newspaper continues, that Russia experienced a shortage of gasoline in the 2011 year, which resulted in a "significant popular discontent." Also, the publication writes that Igor Sechin 15 July sent a letter to Putin warning of a major shortage of petroleum products in 2016-2017. It will arise in the event that the processing sector does not receive financial assistance. Most of the roughly 50 large Russian refineries, like the publication, were created during the Soviet period. In addition, processors require stable supplies of Western equipment, including American.

The current US sanctions, the Wall Street Journal continues, apply only to new Russian oil and gas production projects. However, the US embargo, even one-sided, regarding the export of pumps for refineries, compressors, control equipment and catalysts, "will cause a widespread shortage of petroleum products, will put enormous pressure on the civilian Russian economy and Moscow’s ability to conduct military operations." “Putin’s regime will suffer major political damage,” the publication believes.

True, President Obama can veto sanctions imposed by Congress. In any case, the Congress will “do well” if it “takes out the US policy towards Russia for serious discussion in the election year”.

So, to add in conclusion, the US plan is clear: not to refuse sanctions. True, Obama is not eager to quarrel with Russia (on the contrary, he is ready to negotiate within the framework of the Syrian problem). Apparently, the Russian “question” will become the central point of foreign policy for the next president.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 7 October 2015 06: 27
    financial costs of the West from the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation may exceed 755 billion dollars.

    So it's too early for a black talking head to summarize. And whose "economy is torn to shreds" still needs to be seen.
    There are enormous difficulties and will be from sanctions, but we will be able to overcome the sanctioners by extorting 5 from our colony.
    1. marlin1203
      marlin1203 7 October 2015 09: 56
      We must hold on and to the maximum advantage of ourselves to use the opportunities for our own growth that these sanctions give
    2. Tektor
      Tektor 7 October 2015 11: 59
      ... And whose "economy is torn to shreds" still needs to be seen ...
      It's just that it takes a very long time to reach 3,14ndos that the dynamics of Russia's GDP in dollars, which has collapsed by about 1,5 times, is not quite what one should look at. It turns out that the dynamics of the RF GDP in PPP both grew by 3-4% in recent years and continues to grow. This means that the opportunities of the economy are increasing, despite the course. Therefore, the power of the "torn to shreds" economy has not diminished. And the comments of Western analysts, in this light, look silly.
      1. Alena Frolovna
        Alena Frolovna 7 October 2015 13: 16
        - Vladimir Vladimirovich! There, because of the Crimea, a dozen of our deputies were blacklisted.
        - What else?
        - Yes, like nothing.
        - Hmm .. And these deputies .. we have a lot more?
        - Yes, the shaft!
        - Oh, how? .. Listen, bring me a map.

        Well, my friends, let's start a little for sanctions:

        and then wait a bit:

        when they are, sanctions, "served":

        In the meantime, netuti.

        *I apologize for the last picture.
  2. Tatarname
    Tatarname 7 October 2015 06: 29
    Russia experienced and survived more difficult times. The main thing is not to lose heart.
    For the West, let him "have" himself and say ...
  3. slizhov
    slizhov 7 October 2015 06: 41
    As it has become fashionable now to say - "ALL FEET SHOOTED TO YOURSELF!" :)
  4. moskowit
    moskowit 7 October 2015 06: 43
    "We drank, ate, had fun - we counted, wept!" And it always happens when your head is gone ...
  5. D-Master
    D-Master 7 October 2015 07: 09
    WE Russians are always damn effective in an era of difficulties and trials. Good years are deadly for us. Moreover, the entire Soviet Union absorbed the notion of a hand-made bottle of milk with mother’s milk. Now forgotten but sitting at the genetic level. So gentlemen pendo ... Americans sanctions - you are welcome.
  6. strelets
    strelets 7 October 2015 07: 14
    It is necessary to put an obstruction at the desk, and let him display in the notebook "Politics must be flexible and smart." And so a million times)))
    1. T-73
      T-73 7 October 2015 16: 16
      Quote: strelets
      and let him write in the notebook "Politics must be flexible and smart"

      He did not read Lenin’s grandfather. Therefore, he doesn’t know what politics is) in apt expression ... however, also Volodya)
  7. Born in USSR
    Born in USSR 7 October 2015 07: 15
    It’s strange. Processors complain plants built in the USSR. How to cut money they have enough mind for it, and to carry out a modernization of no mind and most importantly they have no desire. And the main motto is GIVE MONEY. Fuel prices. Oh, some gasoline soon 50 p. It will cost and they don’t have any money. But you planted it, it’s yours and that’s good for it. Our elite was snickering in full, that's all.
    1. Alexei
      Alexei 7 October 2015 08: 17
      Quote: Born in the USSR
      How to cut money they have enough mind for it, and to carry out a modernization of no mind and most importantly they have no desire.

      Each of them must be forced to eat the works of Karl Marx.
    2. Cap.Morgan
      Cap.Morgan 7 October 2015 08: 37
      I recently visited an ice cream factory. All equipment a hundred years ago. The combine must be said clearly not unprofitable.
    3. Volzhanin
      Volzhanin 7 October 2015 10: 08
      That's right - they openly and brazenly stuff their personal pockets. Those. privatizers a priori were and are temporary workers who take care only of their beloved. Here is the result. Didn’t have the mind to start up part of the profit on modernization of production? Now let them do what they want, and best of all, they will return production to the state. Only the state enterprise should help the state. Private traders let themselves get out or sell an excessive burden.
      1. Sling cutter
        Sling cutter 9 October 2015 14: 39
        Quote: Volzhanin
        and it is best to return production to the state.

        yet our state-owned enterprise does not need enterprises, it is persistently continuing the privatization of the remaining funds, because, in fact, it is the main komersant.
        main motto:
        " privatization of income, nationalization of expenses"
  8. anfil
    anfil 7 October 2015 07: 19
    The oil refining infrastructure is so weak, the publication continues, that Russia experienced a shortage of gas in the 2011 year, which resulted in "significant popular discontent." The publication also writes that Igor Sechin sent a letter to Putin on July 15 warning of a large shortage of oil products in 2016-2017.

    Ours already foresee this.

    The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation proposes to fix in the quadripartite agreements that were signed in 2011 by the FAS, Rosstandart, Rostekhnadzor and oil companies the obligations of oil companies to sell at least 90% of gasoline produced within the Russian Federation, said Energy Minister Alexander Novak.
    "Our third proposal concerns the obligations of companies to supply the domestic market," Novak said, speaking at a meeting on the development of oil refining chaired by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

    And also, so that there is no shortage, they decided:

    The circulation periods on the domestic Russian Euro-4 gasoline market have been extended until July 1, 2016, TASS reports.

    This was stated by Energy Minister Alexander Novak.

    “Today at the meeting, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made a decision for six months, until 1 July 2016 years, to extend the circulation on the domestic market of the Russian Federation of gasoline of ecological class 4. During these six months, the Ministry of Energy of Russia will monitor the situation on the fuel market for subsequent decisions, ”Novak said.

    Novak did not rule out that the extension of the use of the standard could be initiated by the ministry even after 1 July.
  9. Babai Balkan
    Babai Balkan 7 October 2015 07: 20
    America doesn’t care about the Western economy, it scares horror stories about Russian aggression and forces eastern NATO to keep its junk and cuts loot for updating orders of its defense industry.
  10. afrikanez
    afrikanez 7 October 2015 07: 31
    How much is being done for the defense industry, well, is it really impossible to introduce new technologies in oil refineries. Even that is not believed. Surely, is it necessary to buy everything imported? It’s time to raise the level of soy products ourselves. without the help of the west.
    1. anfil
      anfil 7 October 2015 07: 42
      The oil refining infrastructure is so weak, the publication continues, that Russia experienced a shortage of gas in the 2011 year, which resulted in "significant popular discontent."

      Our foreign partners are cunning
      The growth of oil products exports from Russia, including high-quality diesel fuel, has led to an oversupply in the European market. Because of this, European refineries are forced to reduce their own production or even close, which threatens with job losses in Europe.

      The modernization of Russian refineries in recent years has begun to bear fruit. In 2013, Russia became the main producer and exporter of ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel (ULSD), which is traditionally used for refueling cars in Europe. Its production was approximately 500 000 barrels per day, which is twice the level of 2012, according to Energy Aspects. In addition, it is expected that by 2016, it will reach 1,1 million barrels per day. However, most of the ULSD is exported.
  11. dimoniksm
    dimoniksm 7 October 2015 08: 01
    Byln at these Russian oil and gas workers SUCH babos are spinning, is it really impossible to invest in the development and production of oil-producing equipment. After all, it’s just like our weapons will be cheaper, and they will protect themselves from future risks. By the way, the American plant for the production of equipment is being built in the Kostroma region and sanctioned by it ... (Oil Vel Varco)
  12. mamont5
    mamont5 7 October 2015 08: 04
    Quote: aszzz888
    financial costs of the West from the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation may exceed 755 billion dollars.

    These are their problems. And Russia today is celebrating the birthday of President Vladimir Putin! He is turning 63 of the year!
  13. parusnik
    parusnik 7 October 2015 08: 54
    The US embargo, even one-sided regarding the export of pumps for refineries, compressors, control equipment and catalysts, “will cause a widespread shortage of oil products, will put enormous pressure on the Russian civilian economy... Once there was such an embargo from the United States when the Druzhba gas pipeline was being built ... and it was built and somehow nothing happened ...
  14. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 7 October 2015 08: 59
    sanctions do much more harm to the prohibitions than to Russia

    And, which is typical, the "prohibitors" understand this, but they cannot do anything. That's when the European "people" run out of patience and they take to the streets, and all over Europe, then something may move.
  15. robbihood
    robbihood 7 October 2015 10: 56
    "The UK will get a minus of $ 9,6 billion in exports, lose 119.000 jobs and lose $ 41 billion in Russian capital invested in the country." Quote. I don't understand, after all, they only talk about the withdrawal of capital from Russia - 150 billion in 2014. I have not heard of any capital inflow from Russian oligarchs from the West (including from England). On the contrary. And if we consider hypothetical losses from various kinds of events, it will be possible to operate in hundreds of trillions. Of course, sanctions are bad, but there is no need to hang up noodles. And different analysts will calculate as the customer orders. Who is the customer and how much will pay - the main argument.
  16. Andrey77
    Andrey77 7 October 2015 11: 18
    Maybe there are sanctions somewhere, but I have the latest machine tools made in Japan and Italy. Hi-fi machine tool industry, the best in the world. Sanctions? The Japs wanted to spit on the sanctions, only business and nothing personal. "The Russians pay well and right away, you are a very profitable partner" - this is what a Japanese man told me in the smoking room when they were setting up the line.
    1. Locksmith
      Locksmith 7 October 2015 12: 04
      Quote: Andrey77
      but I have in my production the latest machines from Japan and Italy.

      And ours sent amers and bought Taiwanese machines, very much nothing with Japanese brains wink As jokes on CNC forums, soon the funus will be in the manger laughing
      1. Andrey77
        Andrey77 7 October 2015 12: 24
        We also have show-offs, a well-known brand, journalists will write what. Taiwan is not solid. :) Although spare parts are manufactured in Taiwan (mechanics) and Malaysia (electronics). :)
    2. T-73
      T-73 7 October 2015 16: 33
      Maybe everything is good with their machines? Where are we? There are leaders in different industries, there are, but this changes little. Yes, if we look, for example, at Power Machines from St. Petersburg, then everything seems to be not bad. But where are the others? We are building some kind of small business - so what? We are looking at pipe rolling - there is also someone to produce something. But quality! Guys, I will not say anything for the supplier whose NZ pipes were installed at one of the nuclear power plants (okay, that on ours - otherwise it would be a shame) - certificates, gallograms, everything seems to be flowing, well, there was no such% of defects in the Urals before! About machines in general a sore subject.
      1. Andrey77
        Andrey77 11 October 2015 12: 18
        In machine tools, we are already 20 years behind, if not more. Individual machines are assembled in line, controlled by the touch of a finger on the monitor. So it is with us. I’ll say more, the line processor is no weaker than in a PC. By Wi-Fi, it is not yet controlled, but it will come to that. In mechanics, tolerances are already in microns, and in ours - in tenths of a millimeter. To catch up with the decaying west (or rather the east) in machine tools is unrealistic. As in the automotive industry. Alas, this is a fact.
        1. 4thParasinok
          4thParasinok 16 October 2015 13: 37
          minus for ignorance of the topic. We worked with hundredths back in the forties. Even the student TV-4 lathes were able to do this.
          Listen to the man who in 1986 received a turner diploma ...
    3. 4thParasinok
      4thParasinok 16 October 2015 13: 42
      Quote: Andrey77
      but I have in my production the latest machines from Japan and Italy. Hi-fi machine tool industry, the best that is in the world.

      is it when the Italians began to produce "the best thing in the world"? their stability of product quality in mass production is worse than we had in the 90s.
  17. sanyavolhv
    sanyavolhv 7 October 2015 14: 24
    Of course, I will not recall Armageddon.
    but I will speak about sanctions.
    sanctions are good. less and less people will wait for free money and begin to work. for whom? never mind. importantly, they will begin to work. Americans need SLAVES, all over the world. that’s why they bankrupt the whole world starting from Africa and continuing with Arabs. the question arises: RUSSIANS WANT to be living slaves or prefer to be dead, free? if the free dead then you can put America ultimatum. we will not be slaves, and if you continue to try to make us them, we will not seem to be pushing you too little.
    America is probably not yet aware of its childish stupidity. America is trying to destroy the WHITE man. in other words, America destroys the white race. Do they probably think that all slaves will be equal?
    maybe money is more important than race? in other words, GOD IS SO SO STUPID by creating us different. WHAT DOES IT NEED TO BE FIXED? somehow too often lately god has been called a fool. Seeing the rain radioactive.
    remembered. Well, they will meet on armageddon, they will kill themselves everywhere .... then there are no brains ....
  18. allian
    allian 7 October 2015 15: 59
    Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin

    It’s better for a dude to play the balalaika than to comment on economic topics. It is not forbidden to give vent to emotions and fantasies.
    And here is how the welfare of the inhabitants of the main countries of the world in 2014 has actually changed.
  19. Crimson cloud
    Crimson cloud 7 October 2015 17: 01
    Thanks for the review.
    However, the passage from the Wall Street Journal that our refineries are outdated and produce low-quality products do not hold water. Comrade For some reason, Chuvakin did not write about this. For those interested, I would like to address the Oil podcast in the AppStore, where leading Russian experts in this industry tell everything in great detail. There are many problems, including with modern oil production technologies, but there are no problems with refining at all. The factories have been renovated or built over the past decade. Moreover, according to the authors, we have the best petroleum products in Europe, second only to the US ones. The main problem is the lack of markets - the production of gasoline and other petroleum products is very much (more than 50%) higher than domestic demand.
    Well, with internal pricing, of course, there are also problems. Although, again, when compared with European ones, our gasoline is cheaper than anywhere else. =) I would like to see government encouragement of the supply of inexpensive oil products to the domestic market ...
  20. Yak-3P
    Yak-3P 7 October 2015 17: 29
    oh well .. else they’ll print .. and vapche these forecasters are lying che meteorologists
  21. anip
    anip 8 October 2015 11: 11
    It is enough just to compare the average wages and living standards of the population in the Russian Federation and Western countries and the United States. This will be an indicator of the state of the economy, as well as all kinds of influence of "losses". Even in Brazil, the average salary is twice as high as in Russia. What can you talk about here? But hooray for the patriots - even in the eyes, everything is Putin's dew.
    1. Andrey77
      Andrey77 11 October 2015 12: 33
      Average salaries are the average temperature in a hospital. Comparing the Kyrgyz janitor (migrant) and Gazprom's top manager is a bit inaccurate. Well, if you want ... What is the salary of a Mexican in the USA. He works as a cleaner in a mack duck. Removes half a room in a slum. Well?
  22. Region 23
    Region 23 9 October 2015 14: 16