The geopolitical confrontation of the Russian Federation and the United States consists of a series of complex moves with a clear geographical reference. And now we will try to single out such moves in the last five years:
- 2010-2011 move. USA. During this period, the Americans achieved great success in organizing the "color revolutions" that immediately hooked the 2 region: North Africa and the Middle East. In this regard, it cannot be said that the USA benefits only chaos. Naturally, the best option is to change the power in the required country to the most faithful puppet, which has strong levers of government (Tunisia). A less favorable, but acceptable option for the American leadership is the creation of an armed confrontation zone in conditions when the population did not fully support the revolutionaries, or the revolutionaries themselves did not justify the hopes placed (Libya). The worst option for the United States is the complete failure of the “color revolution” (Syria). In order for the worst case scenario to become acceptable in Libya, the West needed a violation of the UN Security Council resolution 1973. In Syria, this required a new move, which can be considered a consequence of the first, but due to a sufficiently large time period, they cannot be combined.
- 2013 move. USA. This move is caused by the incompleteness of the first. The US authorities accuse the Syrian leadership of applying chemical weapons in gut. 1729 people became victims of sarin as a result of the fall of several missiles. It should be understood that the fighting in the suburbs of Damascus did not begin on August 21 2013 of the year. In addition, the army has repeatedly succeeded in successfully driving out militants from the suburbs. Without a doubt, it can be said that the use of chemical weapons in such a densely populated area was absolutely unprofitable for the army. If this happened anywhere in the desert against militant clusters, then the suspicions would be more solid. Then the US Army openly declared its readiness to intervene in the Syrian Arab Republic in the event of an order from Obama, an open buildup of military grouping began, primarily from the US Navy. The move failed completely due to the subsequent move of Russia.
- 2013 move. Russia. The diplomatic school of Russia turned out to be more effective than the provocations of the Syrian militants. Syria has refused chemical weapons. The OPCW successfully eliminated it and the United States lost its motive. Subsequently, chemical weapons were repeatedly used by terrorist groups after the elimination of Syria’s weapons of mass destruction, and a year later the UN managed to finally make sure that the two cylinders seized in the territories controlled by the terrorists in August 2013 were sarin. The course is completed.
- 2013-2014 move. USA. After a complete failure with the liquidation of the Assad government, Russia was dealt a heavy blow at the worst possible time. The “color revolution” in Ukraine, with an obvious neo-Nazi flavor and a Russophobic aftertaste, was a kind of response to Russia's attempt to hinder the military campaign in Syria. The wonderful Olympiad 2014 tied up its hands in Moscow and didn’t let the neo-Nazi groups on the territory of Ukraine go to armed resistance when the authorities were still legal there. In Ukraine, the best scenario of the “color revolution” took place: the change of the old power to an extremely puppet, based on the power component of the neo-Nazi gangs. The course is completed.
- 2014 move. Russia. Leave unanswered Russia simply could not. The most sudden and quick counter-strike was the reunification of the Crimea with Russia. This was followed by assistance to residents and militias of Donbass. Thus, the power under the United States wards was shaken, Ukraine lost 7,6% of territories and decreased by 6 million people (45,5 million in 2013 against 39,3 million without DPR, LC and Crimea in 2015). However, frankly, this move is not over yet. The war is actually frozen. At the same time, the US still fully controls the remaining 92,4% of the territory of Ukraine, there was a reason to impose sanctions against Russia, it was possible to spoil relations with the EU, and any subsequent change of power threatens to bring even more Russophobic forces to the leadership of Ukraine. In fact, with this move, Russia managed to transfer Ukraine for the United States from the category of the best option to the acceptable one and save the Crimea from the war, but did not win the battle for the whole country. The move is not complete.
- 2015 move. Russia. The militants in Syria, who were completely mad with impunity, became a threat to the whole world. Now it is worth dwelling on this course of Russia in more detail.
The need for external intervention in the war is obvious. Even if the militants of the “Islamic State” were not cruel, this war still had no chance of a successful end, even if the help from the West ceased to Syrian militants. Too much the West has spent on them to date. The front line is practically immobilized and a war for one quarter or a military base can last several years, which is why all objects on the contact line are turned into ruins. An example of this is the Abu al-Duhour air base, which passed into the hands of terrorists after two years of siege. You can also recall the city of Daraya (a suburb of Damascus), famous tank maneuvers of the Syrian army without infantry support or just look at the long-suffering Aleppo, divided into parts.
Realizing that the help of the “moderate opposition” is coming to the terrorists, the West continued until the last moment to send money and weapons, to prepare new militants. The United States, Britain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and France regularly allocated tens and hundreds of millions of dollars to support those who, barely receiving the money, immediately transformed into staunch Islamists who were ready to fight with the rest of the world, including the sponsors. For only three years, the United States allocated 500 million dollars to training militants. That's interesting, but can European or American officials name at least one governorate (administrative unit of Syria), controlled by the “moderate opposition”? But to cite as an example at least one successful battle with the participation of militants of the “opposition” SSA from 2014 of the year?
Yes, there are often some green zones on the cards (for some reason this color was chosen in most cases), which are allegedly controlled by the “Syrian opposition”. However, in fact we are not talking about people defending the Western values of secular democracy, but about other terrorist groups, such as the Al-Qaida Syrian subsidiary, called “Al-Nusra Front”. It is this “front” that is in conflict now with the IG, which absorbs most of the “moderate oppositionists” and military equipment from the West. The area in the north of Aleppo on the border with the IG is marked on the maps with green color. However, what is happening there actually became clear from the recent August event, when the “Front en Nusra” left its positions on the contact line with the IG, filling the vacuum with friendly Islamist groups, fearing Turkey’s invasion. So weird! And you are no "moderate rebels."
Another example is Damascus. On the maps, the eastern suburbs of Damascus are marked in green. However, for some reason such names as “Jaish al-Islam” and “Front-en-Nusra” sound in reports. Both groups regularly bombard the central regions of Damascus, organize terrorist attacks and stand, among other things, behind the shelling of the Russian embassy. Jash al-Islam 1 October and did declare war on Russia. By the way, these groups were recognized as a terrorist part of the faithful sponsors of the "rebels". The city of Ez-Zabadani to the west of Damascus is also marked in green. Here September 10 tried to break through to their own militants "Front of Al-Nusra" and ran into a chain of explosive devices installed by the Syrian army.
The Islamic State itself did not appear in Syria. Before its formation, the main Islamists in Syria were considered the “Front of an-Nusra”. By the middle of 2013, they accounted for a third of the “oppositionists” in number, but took up two-thirds of the strike by the Syrian army, were able to successfully capture a lot of military bases, settlements and even airfields. The first mention of the "Islamic State" dates back to October 15 2006, when Iraq merged 11 groups that dreamed of seizing the Sunni part of Iraq immediately after the coalition left. Thus, it turns out that George Bush the Second is to blame for the appearance of the IG, and Barack Obama the First is to blame for its popularity and scale. For some time, the IG acted as a joint “front”, but in the end there was a conflict.
Fortunately, the recent rejection of the training of militants by the United States indicated the absence of the “Syrian Free Army” and the collapse of all plans to destroy the Syrian government.
Military group of the Russian Federation and its actions
So, the Russian military group in Syria to 1500 people personnel, 12 Su-25, 12 Sioux 24M, 4 Sioux 30SM, several Su-34, 15 Mi-17 and Mi-24 / Mi-35, 7-9 T-90, 36 armored vehicles, 10 tankers and 2 air defense complex (apparently "Armor-С1"), it is possible the presence of MLRS "Smerch." The “Sharp-witted” and “Ladny” patrol ships, the R-109 missile boat and the Saratov large landing ship led by the Moscow cruiser will cover the skies over Latakia with medium-range and long-range air defense missiles. It is clear that we are talking exclusively about the air force operation. Compare with Afghanistan is stupid.
On the first day 12 strikes were delivered, however, with so many planes and helicopters, the number of airstrikes can safely go beyond 50. It is possible that aviation the grouping will grow and it is quite possible that in the future, local pinpoint special operations of special forces are also possible when it comes to protecting the airbase, releasing civilians from captivity or rescuing historical monuments. An increase in the VKS grouping by 2-3 times is quite acceptable.
The main attacks were on the infrastructure of terrorists in the governorates of Aleppo, Idlib, Ham, Raqqah, Deir ez-Zor, Homs. That is, Russian aviation has covered almost half of the country, including the main strongholds of the IG and their "capital" city of Rakka. The priority of the Russian Aerospace Forces over coalition aviation is the possibility of direct contact with the main force fighting the Islamists in the SAR territory. Russia can not only receive data from Syrian intelligence officers, but also has the ability to place its equipment for tracking the enemy on the ground, can use small and ultra small unmanned aerial vehicles.
But we must clearly understand that without a qualitative re-equipment of the Syrian army we cannot manage. Massive deliveries of armored vehicles are essential. It should be about hundreds of units. Syrian soldiers must receive communications systems, night vision devices, new small arms, body armor, UAVs, etc. Contracts must be fulfilled for the supply of Yak-130, Mig-29М2 airplanes and C-300PMU-1 air defense systems (in Syria there are still no ). It is very important to equip the Syrian air forces, which due to the lack of bombs of the FAB family are forced to use barrel bombs "Barrel TNT". These are the ones that Barack Obama twice recalled in the UN. In fact, we are talking about homemade bombs consisting of a cylindrical container, oil / explosives and shrapnel. They are usually dumped from a low altitude due to the lack of sane aerodynamic properties. Moreover, it is no secret to anyone that Syria has never had the opportunity to deliver high-precision strikes. The TNT Barrel explosion itself is not much different from the American bombs. Apparently, according to Obama, they do not explode so “democratically”.
Why is it Russia?
Syrian President Bashar Assad today has become a loyal ally of Russia. The alliance is not calculated by the size of the turnover, otherwise then the United States and China would be more than friends. Alliance is measured in relief at a difficult time. By helping Syria and Iran, Russia is gaining loyal allies, and not just some kind of “partners” in the Middle East region. In March, 2014, Syria became one of the first countries that recognized Crimea as part of Russia.
Assistance in the Syrian war will mean the emergence of full-fledged Russian naval and VKS bases in this country, which will expand the zone of military influence throughout the Mediterranean region and will no longer depend on Turkey’s desire to let ships pass through the narrow strait. Also, thanks to Russia, it will be possible to resolve the eternal conflict of the Iranian-Syrian bloc with Israel. The Iran-Syrian bloc itself is the main alternative to the pro-American Persian monarchies.
Russia certainly has interests in Syria that have practical implications, in contrast to the little geopolitical aspirations that are hardly noticeable in the near future for a simple philistine. Two thousand terrorists from Russia are fighting on the territory of Syria and Iraq as part of the IG, and there is a tendency for them to return. By itself, the group often points to its maps of the Crimea and the Caucasus. So why will Russia just look at how militants gain experience in the Middle Eastern war? Our country is familiar with terrorism and will always use every opportunity to prevent the growth of opportunities for Islamists on its territory.
It is impossible not to objectively admit that in Russian society there are quite a few hard-liners in support of the Bandera regime. Of course, to some extent Syria will distract the attention of the Russians from the Ukrainian impasse. Yes, we are not sinless and any blow to American interests will be positively perceived by the majority and will increase the rating of power. There is nothing bad or artificially "imposed by propaganda." This is common to all states. Although the question of the fate of the Bandera regime will still sooner or later arise. There is no doubt about this. So far, peace has indeed come to the Donbas, and there is no point bombing the Ukrainian army and punitive battalions.
Much is known about the "effectiveness" of the American coalition ... However, almost no one talks about banal figures. From the time of the Security Council resolution 1973 to the beginning of June 2011, the anti-Libyan coalition made 9000 sorties, including 3500 combat missions, and by October 21, the alliance planes made 205 26 sorties in 156 days, of which 9 634 had crashed. By 8 September 2015 of the year for 396 days, the number of sorties of the anti-Igil coalition was 53 278, of which only 6700 were combat (4198 in Iraq and 2502 in Syria). Such statistics suggests that the intensity of sorties against the IS and the legitimate authorities of Libya are comparable. It turns out that for the West, Muammar Gaddafi, who fought for his prosperous country, was no less dangerous than a terrorist group that openly declares its readiness to take over the whole world.
The naked eye can see that 12,6% of sorties is a very small indicator of effectiveness in comparison with other military conflicts. In this case, the cost of fuel is likely to exceed the cost of ammunition. The territories of the Islamic State in Iraq have really shrunk by 25%. However, in Syria there is no such tendency. The number of terrorists in the ranks of the IG does not change at the expense of beginners. According to the US intelligence grouping 30 is fighting thousands of foreigners from more than 100 countries. About the same figure, the United States called, referring to the total number of jihadists of under-state, including Syrians and Iraqis. Naturally, in reality, the total number of militants is many times larger and it is possible that we are talking about 200 thousands. The General Staff of Russia reports on 70 000. Indeed, coalition airstrikes are able to reverse the course of events in a single battle for a single locality (Kobani), but they cannot reverse the general trend. The IG offensive in Iraq and Syria is only postponed until “better times” and after the cessation of the bombing begins with a new force.
In fact, a coalition led by the United States, alas, is not much more legitimate than a coalition of Salafi groups called the Islamic State. At the very least, this concerns her actions in Syrian airspace. The United States and its allies have no agreement from the Syrian authorities or the approval of the UN Security Council.
The Russian Foreign Ministry is right. Coalition actions are haphazard. This does not mean that the world's largest air force is unable to destroy the "Islamic State". This means that the West does not use all possible power. 2003 of thousands of soldiers, 300 combat aircraft, 950 tactical aircraft, 430 helicopters, 1100 ships, of which 115 are carriers of cruise missiles, both in composition and separately from six aircraft carrier groups were concentrated in Iraq in 29. In a single layered attack could participate up to 600 aircraft! All this (except for the land component) could be concentrated today to deliver a decisive blow to the IS. Such a number of troops would be enough for the collapse of the IG with the participation of the Syrian and Iraqi army on the ground. But the US position on the "Islamic state" looks more like this:
- No IG. Ok, let's bomb Assad. The actions against the "dictator" in the eyes of the international community are more justified than the actions against the "dictator", who is fighting the strongest terrorists in the history of mankind.
- There is an IG. Well, okay. Pobomb for the species, and if the Syrian army and can begin to restore the controlled territory, then hit and on them. We can not miss the chance when our planes are in the sky of Syria.
In this regard, Russia's intervention will now eliminate the option of a smooth transition from airstrikes on terrorists to airstrikes on the Syrian army.
Not to mention Israel, which is currently the only country that attacked the positions of the Assad army. In particular, 2 on April 2015 of the year became known about the Israeli strike on Syrian military sites near Homs. For some reason, the search for "missiles for Hezbollah" is made throughout Syria, and not Lebanon. And the answer to the missiles falling in Israel on the Golan is strangely meant for the Syrian military, and not the terrorist groups that partially control this territory. It is very good that Benjamin Netanyahu first went to Moscow. It is hoped that the IDF will end such aggressive actions against the Syrian army, although on September 27 there were new strikes on the Golan Heights.
Turkey is trying to make the most aggressive appearance at all and has once again threatened to create a “buffer zone” on the border with Syria (in fact, the occupation of part of Syrian territory). But a little bombing the Kurds, calmed down. The United States gives the Kurds weapons, and their coalition colleagues bomb. By the way, the Turkish army is the only external force that crossed the border of Iraq and Syria by land (but did not engage in combat with the regular army). Thanks to Russia, she will have to forget about this too.
It will be difficult to say for whom, however, it becomes clear that Syria will have to be left to the West alone after a series of defeats. Will not be able to divide one airspace "probable opponents." This is unlikely even if the West legalizes its actions and establishes direct contact. Therefore, the coalition will have to close the door on the other side.
Naturally, this will not happen immediately. There will be a lot of cries about the bombing of civilians and "moderate" militants of the "Front of Al-Nusra" and "Jaish al-Islam" aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Only on October 1, the “couch troops” of the enemies of Russia managed to “shoot down” in Syria 2 Su-34, 1 Tu-22, 1 Su-24 and 1 Su-25 ...
The course of Russia in Syria is very terrible for the West because the West is no longer the main fighter against terrorism. All attention is riveted on Russia. Iraq and Afghanistan are already asking Russia for help, even against the background of a long-term anti-terrorism campaign of the West. Well, the triple defeat in Syria causes obvious hysterical seizures in high-ranking circles in Washington. One need only look at the completely opposite statements of the Psak employees.
Most likely, the next move will be connected with Ukraine. Both sides want to take it entirely. Otherwise, Vladimir Putin would not slow down the attack of the militia. If the goal of Moscow was solely the creation of Novorossia, then in the spring of 2014 it would have happened with the direct participation of the Russian Armed Forces, by analogy with the Crimea.
The ideal option for the United States would be a provocation of the Russian armed forces in the Baltic States. Then one could accuse Russia of aggression and turn most of the world against it. But Russia “sprats” are not too impressive, and Saakashvili in Georgia is no more. So it remains, above all, Ukraine. In this case, let those who are especially eager to take Donetsk and Lugansk by force carefully observe the capabilities of the Russian HVAC.
Also, attempts of a “color revolution” in Belarus, which creates a unified air defense system with Russia and allows opening new bases as opposed to strengthening the NATO group in Poland and the Baltic states, are not excluded. This year we clearly saw the rehearsal of the “color revolution” in Armenia.
At last I must say about why Russia supports the power in Syria and does not support the power in Ukraine. It's not about double standards. The difference is that the power in Syria is legal, even with an outdated system, and the power in Ukraine is only partially legal and came as a result of a bloody coup. In other words, if you compare Ukraine and Syria, the current government in Ukraine is like the Syrian National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces (NKORS). Russia would never support her in the war with the troops loyal to Assad if she won in 2011-2013 (when the SSA still existed).
It is worth noting that this is the first military campaign in the history of the Russian Federation outside the region (post-Soviet space). Thus, the moves of Russia in 2013 and 2015 on the Syrian issue finally and irrevocably confirmed its status as a global, not a regional player.
We wish good luck to the Russian pilots and that all the missiles and bombs fall right on target! And we wish peace to Syria!