Military Review

Yemeni Empire Trap

32
War is the father of everything, Heraclitus said. Wars create states and wars destroy them. Today, Saudi Arabia is an anachronism, a relic of an era of brutal colonial empires and absolute monarchies. Other similar states have long since disappeared not only in Europe, but also in Asia. Riyadh is maintained only thanks to oil revenues and, to a lesser extent, from tourism. Ideologically, we face practically the same ISIL, only recognized by the international community. The truth is that at the very least it could exist in quiet periods, it has every chance not to endure the times of the dashing. In launching a military adventure in Yemen, the Al Saud realized too late that the world was actually undergoing a third world war, and if the past global conflict had bypassed them, then this time it would be more serious.


Yemeni Empire Trap


In Yemen, in Riyadh, if not a complete catastrophe, then a tangible defeat. The rebels, both from among the former military, and simply the militia not only attack communications and reference points, but also carry out raids of retaliation on the territory of Saudi Arabia itself, in its southern Shiite provinces Najran, Asir and Djizan. Video recordings of the defeat of the next armored column of the Kingdom are published on the Web every three to four days. During one of these September 27 raids, Saudi General Ibrahim Hamzi was killed.

Although the army’s reserves of the region’s largest monarchy are very large, such a level of losses does not bode well for the future. The military budget of Saudi Arabia 80 billion dollars, and so is almost equal to the Russian, and according to some data, and exceeds it. If the war continues with the same intensity, then next year expenses may well come close to the Chinese.



September 4 coalition suffered the biggest single loss. In the Yemeni province of Marib, a tactical rocket "Point" hit the forward camp of the UAE army. As a result, 52 soldiers of the United Arab Emirates, as well as fighters of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and local intervention allies, were killed - only about 100 people, according to official data. It is reported that in addition to this, a large number of armored vehicles, ammunition depots, as well as all Apache helicopters that the coalition had in that direction were destroyed.



The monarchies of the Persian Gulf, which are now engaged in battles against Yemen, are armed mostly with Western weaponsand specifically Saudi Arabia - American. If in peacetime such a relationship did not seem important, then during the war it will increasingly afford to afford, because overseas manufacturers of military equipment, knowing the plight of their customers, can set a "special" price for the purchased goods, which will be three times higher than the market price. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of the largest holders of US debt, Washington’s benefits are incredible.

On September 30, the vice-president of the Russian concern Tractor Plants announced a possible bid by Saudi Arabia for 950 BMP-3. If the information is confirmed, it will mean a qualitative psychological shift in strategy. On the one hand, Russian equipment will be much cheaper, and it is more adapted specifically for war, and not for punitive operations.

But the main problem of Saudi Arabia, as always, is not in arms and not in money. She is in people. Increasingly, the soldiers of the Kingdom leave their cars at the first shelling, which clearly confirms the truth: morale and motivation not to buy money, they can strengthen it, but not create it from scratch. The army is clearly not eager to climb into the mountainous and urban areas of the former North Yemen, and the allies of Riyadh, both local and invited, almost openly sabotage the offensive, knowing full well what awaits them in Shiite areas.

Unable to achieve victory on earth, the interventionists emphasized the possibilities aviation. But the attacks are mainly in residential areas, and Yemeni television daily shows pictures of the mass deaths of civilians. In a decent society, this is called a war crime, but the EU and the US do not delicately notice what is happening. Riyadh hoped to intimidate Yemenis with terror from the air, but instead, apparently, only strengthened their resolve and incited hatred.



Al Saud fell into the trap of their own vanity. They cannot withdraw troops from Yemen without victory - the Yemenis, angry with barbaric bombings, will inevitably come to Saudi territory for revenge. Worse, if some of them are still holding back in Yemen itself, being distracted by the fighting with the coalition, then the withdrawal of the troops will release these human resources for the march directly to the enemy’s lair. The delay of the war is fraught with the most sad consequences - the waste of enormous resources, the fall of the authority of the authorities, followed by fragmentation of a far from monolithic country. There are no good options left, now you have to choose from two bad ones.

The royal family has considerable reasons for concern about its own territory, and not only about the south and south-west. Ash-Sharqiya (Eastern Province) with its predominantly Shiite population has long been Riyadh’s headache. It is there that almost all the oil reserves of the Kingdom are located, which provide the ruling dynasty with such luxurious life. If the south flares up, the unrest will quickly spread to the Eastern Province, which borders on the restless Najran. Shiite provinces in Saudi Arabia have rebelled before, but in former times they did not have such impressive support from the outside, from the side of Yemen’s co-religionists, behind whom the mighty shadow of Iran is more clearly visible.

And this is not to mention the threat from the north. If the "Islamic State" remains on the map in one form or another, then Saudi Arabia is an obvious goal for it. For geopolitical, economic and ideological reasons, the two Wahhabi empires will not get along right next to each other. In order to prevent war on two fronts, Riyadh will have to use all its forces to achieve victory in Yemen, but it’s not a fact that he still has the strength for such a victory.
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 5 October 2015 06: 36 New
    14
    Rebels, both among the former military and simply militias, not only attack communications and reference points, but also carry out retaliation raids on the territory of Saudi Arabia itself, in its southern Shiite provinces of Najran, Asir and Jizan.


    Yeah, like a grandmother did not rest, and have to die.
    While the Saudis only hiss the rebels, and the time will come tumble down en masse. Fighters from the Saudis, like from the city of the Bulletin, so be beaten by them, definitely.
    1. Max_Bauder
      Max_Bauder 5 October 2015 08: 44 New
      14
      I hope this tumor of world Wahhabism disappears.
      1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
        Uncle VasyaSayapin 5 October 2015 09: 09 New
        +6
        Obviously, the days of this "pre-empire" are numbered. ISIS will begin to squeeze out of Syria and Iraq. Where do they go? Go south. what
        1. fox21h
          fox21h 5 October 2015 21: 41 New
          +2
          Quote: Uncle VasyaSayapin
          Obviously, the days of this "pre-empire" are numbered. ISIS will begin to squeeze out of Syria and Iraq. Where do they go? Go south. what

          Oh, we’d have hooked Qatar, in general, beauty would have been
  2. Amurets
    Amurets 5 October 2015 06: 46 New
    26
    It seems that early Saudi Arabia and the Emirates divided the Yemen oil fields, as if they did not have to give up theirs.
  3. rosarioagro
    rosarioagro 5 October 2015 07: 16 New
    +2
    "... Riyadh will have to do everything to achieve victory in Yemen, but not the fact that he still has the strength for such a victory."

    If they are strongly pressed, they can turn to America and here the most interesting thing can begin - as a payment for the service, Americans may be asked to play to lower the price of oil
    1. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 5 October 2015 08: 22 New
      0
      Where is even lower? The next year, not the Republicans, supported by the oil lobby, will come to power; they do not need cheap oil at all.
    2. Gomunkul
      Gomunkul 5 October 2015 12: 26 New
      +1
      as a payment for the service, Americans may be asked to play to lower the price of oil
      Already reduce:
      In the price list of the state company Saudi Aramco, sent to customers, the price for deliveries to Asia is reduced by $ 1,7 per barrel. Thus, the discount on oil from Saudi Arabia will now be $ 1,6 compared to oil from Dubai, although earlier the Saudis, on the contrary, asked for a premium of 10 cents in relation to this grade of oil, Interfax reports with reference to The Wall Street Journal.
      The Saudi company also reduced the price of heavy oil for the Far East by $ 2 and 30 cents for the United States.
      hi
    3. The comment was deleted.
  4. parusnik
    parusnik 5 October 2015 07: 34 New
    +3
    The Saudis got stuck in Yemen, Yemen, plainly the Angles did not manage to conquer ... Subjugate, subjugated, but no more .. But the Saudis will not be able to, even within the framework of the coalition .. small states will soon get tired of fighting ..
  5. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 5 October 2015 07: 35 New
    +6
    It is one thing to kill an unarmed, civilian population, and quite another to fight, albeit with a poorly armed enemy, who also burns with the desire to avenge the destruction and sacrifice of the people! And as they say in Odessa, Two are big differences! It seems that the Saudi monarchy did not learn anything from the example of all world monarchies, because almost always the result of wars was the collapse of empires and the collapse of monarchies, and in the 21st century such an anachronism as the Saudi Kingdom, which continues to live in the Middle Ages (in the sense of domestic politics), is a mess. ..
    1. avt
      avt 5 October 2015 08: 17 New
      +4
      Quote: kartalovkolya
      It is one thing to kill an unarmed, civilian population, and quite another to fight, albeit with a poorly armed enemy, who also burns with the desire to avenge the destruction and sacrifice of the people!

      ,, Poorly armed "???? Maybe it’s still insufficiently equipped with heavy weapons? By the way - did you notice that in almost all frames from there the Yemenis are carefully targeted even from the Kalash and how are they not watered from the watering can?
      1. kartalovkolya
        kartalovkolya 5 October 2015 12: 42 New
        0
        "poorly armed" ... by this I meant a lack of air defense equipment in Yemen, otherwise they would quickly "land" all Saudi aviation!
  6. Sergey-8848
    Sergey-8848 5 October 2015 09: 00 New
    +1
    In this region, Kuwait lives relatively quietly (well, the truth, as far as we can see from here), being located almost directly in the middle of the fire. In the same situation, to the west lives itself and relatively does not push the Kingdom of Jordan (+ having Israel in its neighbors as well). Looks like they act on both sides, so for now they are balancing on the verge of getting involved in a general dump. They are members of coalitions, of course, but military operations are not yet allowed on their own territory.
    1. avt
      avt 5 October 2015 09: 07 New
      +2
      Quote: Sergey-8848
      This region is relatively quiet

      wassat Is it quiet in Yemen ??? laughing It’s “quiet” there already from biblical times! I don’t remember when they weren’t slaughtered there, if not with an external enemy, then between themselves tribes.
      Quote: Sergey-8848
      . In the same position, to the west lives itself and relatively does not push the Kingdom of Jordan

      These yes - balance after the pope of the present once got into a fight with the Jews.
  7. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 5 October 2015 09: 34 New
    0
    Maybe, incidentally, ISIS and trample on the Saudis, with all its mass. For now they are in a vice, between Syria and Iraq, from the north of the Turks, with a sufficiently powerful and motivated army, and even to the same time they are buying this oil. And without new victories, there will be no influx of volunteers - that’s the most desperate option, to move south. The Saudis are already bogged down in Yemen, not the fact that there are enough forces on two fronts, and even with such a low motivation for their own troops.
    1. avt
      avt 5 October 2015 09: 39 New
      +2
      Quote: Stirbjorn
      Maybe, incidentally, ISIS and trample on the Saudis, with all its mass.

      what no Rather, to Turkey en masse.
      1. Gomunkul
        Gomunkul 5 October 2015 12: 32 New
        +1
        Rather, to Turkey en masse.
        To Jordan.
        Extremists from the Islamic State, Nusra and Jaish al-Yarmouk are afraid of the activation of Assad’s Syrian armed forces after Russian air strikes, and therefore more than three thousand militants have fled to Jordan, a military source said.
        hi
        1. avt
          avt 5 October 2015 12: 58 New
          +1
          Quote: Gomunkul
          To Jordan.

          Well, there selectively. There, the king is not a sucker pedal, quite an SAS student, and his dad did not differ in his meekness - when the Palestinians in the Jordanian camps got bogged down, he artillery them without any troubles.
  8. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 5 October 2015 10: 39 New
    0
    As a result, 52 soldiers of the United Arab Emirates, as well as fighters of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and local allies of the interventionists died - only about 100 people only according to official data. It is reported that in addition to this, it was destroyed a large number of armored vehicles, ammunition depots, as well as all Apache helicoptersthat the coalition had in that direction.


    That kicked it. These losses in manpower, and especially technology, will haunt this coalition for a long time. Perhaps someone already thought: "We got into it."
  9. Selevc
    Selevc 5 October 2015 11: 02 New
    +4
    The Saudis as a state have three big minuses - this is the geographical position of the country, the country's dependence on oil supplies to the world market and religion !!! Will explain :
    1. Geography... The Saudi state is located on the vast Arabian desert - it is hundreds and thousands of kilometers of uninhabited or completely uninhabitable land + mountain range in the west of the country ... The Saudis have a colossal external border that is difficult to control (even by modern methods of control) - especially in the southern direction .. And small groups of Yemenis can relatively easily enter Saudi territory ...
    2. Economy... If Yemeni rebels infiltrate the Saudi oil production regions - this means at least the global oil crisis - collapses and disruptions in the supply of Saudi oil to the world market and, as a result, its sharp rise in price ... And as a maximum, a civil war is possible on the Saudi territory and the collapse of the state. ..
    3. Religion... Well, there’s nothing to explain especially ... One can only say that knowing some features of the character of the eastern peoples and their tendency to take radical actions - some hitherto calm areas of Saudi Arabia can quickly blaze up in a fire of civil strife ... And the Yemeni avengers will be the sparks ...
    It seems to me that the Saudis have played too much with the local superpower - but as you know, the higher you fly, the more painful it will be to fall !!!
    And the mattress technique on the first video burns well !!! I wonder what it is like that. If this is an RPG-7 then grandpa is still very strong !!!
    1. Ze Kot
      Ze Kot 5 October 2015 21: 04 New
      +2
      Quote: Selevc
      And the mattress technique on the first video burns well !!! I wonder what it is like that. If this is an RPG-7 then grandpa is still very strong !!!



      Hardly. Some sort of anti-tank systems.
  10. plaha
    plaha 5 October 2015 11: 22 New
    +3
    The Saudi prince again gathered in Russia, this time to us in Sochi. They sensed that it smelled of fried, but you don’t have to wait for cheap help from amers, so they want Russia to talk to whom it is necessary.
  11. Belousov
    Belousov 5 October 2015 11: 50 New
    +1
    Well, the Saudis have already been explained that they should not "support" Assad’s opponents "too much" and indulge in oil prices - they did not understand and eventually got aggravated with quite tangible prospects. Now, another conversation remains. Let's see if the essence reaches the monarchy convolutions.
  12. bald
    bald 5 October 2015 12: 12 New
    0
    Saudi Arabia, it seems, imagines itself to be such a local USA - the Middle Eastern hegemon, and tried to behave accordingly.
  13. lukke
    lukke 5 October 2015 12: 37 New
    0
    We are waiting a long time for the prince in Sochi on a regular visit) this time, probably, this time he will ask the GDP to "bomb" ISIS and the Hussites on its territory and how can one not recall the words of the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: "morons b ... b))
  14. Shustov
    Shustov 5 October 2015 13: 24 New
    +5
    Poorly armed partisans with ballistic missiles? What is characteristic, they scouted the target, launched without caps and successfully hit))
  15. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 5 October 2015 14: 17 New
    +1
    The logical conclusion of the Middle East conflict would be to squeeze out all the Ishilovites into KSA territory. Squeeze and lock in the KSA. And let them have fun there for at least 100 years.
    Is such a plan realistic? - Yes. Achievable? - Yes.
    1. rosarioagro
      rosarioagro 5 October 2015 14: 30 New
      0
      Quote: Volzhanin
      Is such a plan realistic? - Yes. Achievable? - Yes.

      No, there is no one to do it, just on the example of Afghanistan, there were forces and still the Taliban are not in Pakistan, but in Afghanistan they feel good
  16. pogis
    pogis 5 October 2015 15: 05 New
    +3
    I can’t laugh! Dill bullet, point TOCHA-U in Donbass all by! Husits ​​are desert children, nomads! BBA-X and the bullseye! Of course this is an accident! Campaign SA will soon put on a Russian cap! Glory to GRU ..!
  17. Denis DV
    Denis DV 6 October 2015 03: 10 New
    0
    As they say - do not dig a hole for another, you will get into it yourself bully
  18. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 6 October 2015 05: 58 New
    0
    I saw the Yemeni socialist republic on the old map. I don’t know its history, probably when the USSR collapsed it also died?
  19. anip
    anip 6 October 2015 10: 16 New
    0
    Quote: Reptiloid
    on the old map saw the socialist republic of Yemen.

    It wasn’t like that. There was NDRY - People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (Before that, NDREY was the People’s Republic of southern Yemen). And there was YAR - the Yemen Arab Republic. they united on May 22, 1990.
  20. antikilller55
    antikilller55 6 October 2015 15: 51 New
    0
    Reckoning always comes, one way or another, but comes ...