Military Review

New Russia: to be or not to be? An alternative look at the "Russian Spring"

69
All coincidences with reality are random. In this article I consider only a hypothetical scenario of what is happening.


Since the beginning of the Kiev Maidan 2013, somehow everyone has already got used to the idea that the United States and the EU supported the coup, which was a surprise for them, that Russia “squeezed” the Crimea. Everyone was very indignant. Donbass rose on this wave, the arrival of Strelka and, as a result, the ATO. In my opinion, this is how the prevailing view of what is happening in the Southeast looks like. But the recent events in the DPR with Purgin’s resignation, the appearance of documents on the network showing the DPR authorities not from the best side, forced me to look at all these events from the other side.

Once in Moscow, I accidentally ran into a Ukrainian who introduced himself as “a relative of Savchenko.” Between the offers to drink, he issued the phrase “I will tell you a secret, the DNR is a project of the FSB, the LC is a draft of the SBU. Just LC Russia intercepted.

Who will listen to drunk? And yesterday, a heretical thought came to my mind: not only the LC, but the DPR is clearly not a Russian project. I will try to explain this, but it seems to me that it is my thought that explains well the presence of SBU people in the DPR MGB, and finding people in leadership positions who are closely connected with both the oligarchs of Ukraine, and certainly Russian, etc.

To begin with, I do not think that the US intelligence services did not expect the Crimea to go to Russia. I think they counted on that. The only thing they probably did not expect that the Crimea will leave peacefully. Shooting in the Crimea would easily solve two problems at once: tear Ukraine away from Russia forever and make Russia an aggressor with all the ensuing consequences. So this plan did not work, I had to write a plan “B” on my lap.

Before talking about the plan "B", I would like to say this. Remember, what was the patriotic rise in Russia after the annexation of the Crimea? Ordinary people were simply proud of V. V. Putin or were glad that Russia was finally “rising from its knees” and at the same time a huge number of “politicians” and “analysts” were trying to get bonuses from what happened. All this in parallel with the rise of the Russian movement in the South-East of Ukraine. And I do not remember that someone grabbed something, shot. Tents, rallies, Russian flags are yes, but that tires, Molotov cocktails ...

Now, if you were on the site of the head of this special operation on the part of the United States, what would you do at this place after the operation in the Crimea essentially failed? I will say what I would do. I would first send small groups of radicals to the cities where the Russian movement rose. Moreover, they are small so that they would not be able to offer active resistance, but those who can provoke a crowd would send strange personalities to the demonstrators who would lead the crowd and at some point become leaders (and only at the time of provocations). After the mob rises, I will begin to force troops in order to force the people to arm themselves and build barricades. At the same time, I would create the illusion that the leadership of regions and the security agencies were fleeing, but some people would have left them in the field. Preferably in key locations, whenever possible. And then suddenly there appear “Russian militants”, exciting regional state administrations, buildings of the Security Service of Ukraine, etc. And now you can declare the ATO. No matter how much the Russian leadership wanted, it would have had to intervene anyway.

True, there is one "but". I would say - a very important "but". It's just that everyone somehow forgot that Donetsk and even more so Luhansk were not in the spotlight in the winter of 2013-2014. Mainly in the news it was about Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev. The problem is that these areas are located in the depths of Ukraine, except for Kharkov, which borders on the Russian Federation. From a strategic point of view, I will not be able to explain why Russia needs Kharkov, and even more so I will not be able to explain how it supports the "terrorists", for example, in Dnepropetrovsk through the territory of Ukraine. It seems to me that this is what explains the fact that the Ukrainian "Alpha" instead of Donetsk hit Kharkov. This made it possible to extinguish the fire in "mainland" Ukraine and ignite the fire of the uprising in the regions that are sandwiched between Ukraine and Russia.

And one more seditious thing: it seems to me that the appearance of Strelkov was very successful in time. The fact is that few people know that up to this point there had already been a militia in Slavyansk, but it was local, and it was simply impossible to accuse the Russian Federation of intervention. And then - oops! A group of armed people from the Crimea. Maybe an accident. Strange coincidence, isn't it? True, there is such wisdom: accidents are not accidental. Just do not think that the Shooter is the evil genius of the civil war in the Donbas. He did the same as everyone! What will order! And here I am ordering my “six” Turchinov to declare the anti-terrorist operation and launch a campaign on charges of aggression and invasion of Ukraine by Russia. In fact, having failed the operation in the Crimea, I still got what I wanted in the Donbas.

I have a reason for the invasion - the land route to the Crimea, the support of the "separatists" weapons: Ukraine does not control the border. All of Ukraine believes that Russia provoked a mutiny in the Donbas. All the problems with the economy are irrelevant to the US, the EU and Poroshenko and Co., the war that Russia has unleashed is to blame. Sanctions, economic pressure, the fall of the ruble, etc. All I needed was I received.

That is why, it seems to me, one should not be surprised at the connections of some officials of both the top and middle managers of the LDNR in all ministries with the Ukrainian oligarchs. Actually, they remained in these republics to maintain ties, and so that business did not collapse, but continued to flourish, and even more so one should not be surprised at corruption. After all, if you look at the truth, after all, nothing has changed for the better. And if we take into account that various organized criminal groups were legalized on the crest of the protest movement, and even merged with the security forces, we have Greater Colombia represented by Ukraine and Small Colombia represented by LDNR.

The current state of affairs within the LDNR, in my opinion, once again proves that Russia did not commit this divorce, thereby disrupting Plan B, since it tries to practically not interfere in the affairs of the republics, although the calculation was precisely that. A small intervention in the military sphere, only aimed at eliminating the Makhnovshchina on its border, and nothing more.

And then I propose to draw conclusions to everyone, well, or argue. Indeed, truth is born in a dispute. If three or four people saw the problem from different angles, then, having discussed the problem, they will certainly become closer to its solution.
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  1. domokl
    domokl 6 October 2015 05: 49 New
    +9
    It is sad that my thoughts and those of the author of the article coincide ...
    1. baltika-18
      baltika-18 6 October 2015 09: 29 New
      -1
      Quote: domokl
      It is sad that my thoughts and those of the author of the article coincide ...

      Reach the beginning? I warned about this in April 2014, at the very beginning. I set minus records. winked This is bullshit. So LDNR is not Russian projects, it’s true, but it’s not Ukrainian either. Ukraine acts only as a performer. Crimea was just a bait, a “gift” to Henry Kissinger. It was swallowed. And then the main project came into force. Minimum task: tear off Ukraine from Russia, mutual hatred (propaganda tried on both sides), Ukraine = Somalia, they didn’t want to do it with any front window. The maximum goal: a large-scale war. The maximum task has not been completed, but the project has not yet been completed. The minimum task has been brilliantly executed and with 100% success. Russia was forced to play by the imposed rules and in a strange game.
      1. Irbis
        6 October 2015 09: 37 New
        0
        Russia was forced to play by the rules imposed and in someone else's game.

        I would not say that Russia got involved in the game. She rather tried to keep the maai (harmonious distance), although the imposition of the game was very intense. What is happening since Putin’s last speech is not a bad thing.
        1. Chertkov Oleg
          Chertkov Oleg 6 October 2015 09: 45 New
          +4
          Time will tell who was right and who did what. Now this is fortunetelling on the coffee grounds, with huge tolerances and if.
        2. baltika-18
          baltika-18 6 October 2015 09: 55 New
          -4
          Quote: Irbis
          I would not say that Russia got involved in the game

          How could she not get involved? Crimea, Donbass, Voentorg, volunteers, anti-Ukrainian propaganda. All the enemies. Isn’t that so?
          Quote: Irbis
          . What has been happening since Putin’s last speech is not bad at all.

          But what has changed Putin’s speech? I repeat, the project has not been closed yet. The conflict has not been settled, it’s frozen. It can be settled only in one case, when the border in this section passes under the control of Kiev. But this hot stage will be settled. And the cold one will remain.
          Syria is today only a continuation of the same game. Probably drew attention to the sluggish rhetoric of the West. This is the tactics of the hunter. When the beast goes into the trap, you can’t make sudden movements, so as not to frighten away. That's when he gets into his whole body, then from sluggish rhetoric to active actions. And the reason for the appearance of ours in Syria-Ukraine.
          1. Alexander Romanov
            Alexander Romanov 6 October 2015 10: 07 New
            +7
            Quote: baltika-18
            And what has changed Putin’s speech?

            And here about this .....
            Quote: baltika-18
            warned about this in April 2014, at the very beginning. He set minus records.

            You don’t have any records there, one trifle. And the fact that you’re a worthless predictor is a fact!
      2. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 6 October 2015 09: 45 New
        +8
        Quote: baltika-18
        .Krym was just a bait, a “gift” of Henry Kissinger

        I’ll send it to Obama, otherwise he thinks it’s Putin wassat
      3. WKS
        WKS 6 October 2015 11: 00 New
        11
        Quote: baltika-18
        The fact that LDNR is not Russian projects is true, but not Ukrainian.

        That's right. These are not projects at all. This is a civil war, a war of the Kiev clique with its own citizens. This conflict has been brewing all the years of its existence. After the violent seizure of power in Kiev by Bandera, this abscess burst. Having brought Crimea out of the conflict, Russia intervened there primarily and mainly in information. After all, not only from Russia, but also from Ukraine, from its Russian-speaking part, go to the rebel republics to Donbass. Those who are unable to neutralize Bandera are driving in the territory under their control. These contradictions are antagonistic. These two groups of people cannot exist together too deep world differences. If the West did not fuel the Bandera regime financially, then the civil war would already be in full swing throughout Ukraine. This replenishment cannot continue indefinitely as the Ukrainian economy is rapidly collapsing, and the people are impoverished. Throwing billions of euros in there is like burning from a boiler room. The purpose of this funding is to preserve the integrity of the state of Ukraine in the Bandera version. As soon as this option runs out politically, then the funding ceases, the conflict will escalate. And there will be only one urgent question - to whom what territory will depart after the collapse of the Ukrainian state. The process is stretched over time due to external strong interference.
    2. Altona
      Altona 6 October 2015 12: 03 New
      +2
      Quote: domokl
      It is sad that my thoughts and those of the author of the article coincide ...

      ----------------------
      Of all the “projects,” this project is not the worst, Russia “left” Novorossia as part of Ukraine for many reasons, and the main reason is to leave Ukraine with an internal conflict so that it could not join NATO and the EU ... For the rest, let them live as they want , we can’t exchange the local officials for some white and fluffy ones, if only because we ourselves don’t have them ... That’s why we have come to such a life, we can argue for a long time and go back to the time of Ivan the Terrible ... do not need bits of territories in the form of Novorosiya and a geographical remnant, on which you can still get the NATO bridgehead ...
  2. venaya
    venaya 6 October 2015 06: 01 New
    +3
    ... Russia's moves in 2013 and 2015 on the Syrian issue finally and irrevocably confirmed its status as a global, not a regional player

    The hard way, but still the "process has begun", not even believe it. So I want positive emotions. Only now nothing is done quickly, this is the law of life.
    1. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 6 October 2015 08: 12 New
      +3
      And why the LPR separately from the DPR - it would seem a common enemy, the goals are the same, friend too,
      definitely the author’s version is no worse than others
  3. Chulman
    Chulman 6 October 2015 06: 12 New
    0
    How many times did he ask himself: where did this shooter come from? Who it? Why exactly him? What a dark personality!
    1. vyinemeynen
      vyinemeynen 6 October 2015 08: 53 New
      +1
      find the answer to your question in today's arrow statements
      I agree with the author in the main. WAR IN UKRAINE OF RUSSIA IS NOT NEEDED. WAR NEEDS USA.
      1. Banshee
        Banshee 6 October 2015 09: 21 New
        +3
        Yes, it's time to forget about Girkin. Well, the man went on a mission. At the call of the soul and heart. He performed it as he could. Good or bad - really not for us to judge. It is clear that the expected preferences are not received. So he hurt. In all his speeches it is visible.
      2. Stirbjorn
        Stirbjorn 6 October 2015 09: 55 New
        +7
        Quote: vyinemeynen
        I agree with the author in the main. WAR IN UKRAINE OF RUSSIA IS NOT NEEDED. WAR NEEDS USA.
        But how is Crimea? There would be no Donbass, there would be provocations in the Crimea. After the Ilovaisk defeat, the ukrovermacht removed all its combat-ready units from Perekop. Think about what they did there before.
      3. Alexl
        Alexl 6 October 2015 09: 55 New
        0
        Yes, Russia needs a pro-American fascist junta near its border.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  4. populist
    populist 6 October 2015 06: 12 New
    +7
    From a strategic point of view, I can’t explain why Russia needs Kharkov,

    From a strategic point of view, Russia needs all of Ukraine, as a freely joined territory. And Galicia, as a country independent, friendly and controlled by Russia from the outside.
    The author made a lot of tricks with his assumptions. Everything was simple enough. The Russian spring in Ukraine did not have the strength to win throughout New Russia. There are a number of very significant reasons for this.
  5. populist
    populist 6 October 2015 06: 23 New
    +7
    Indeed, in a dispute, truth is born

    It's a delusion.
    In a dispute, rejection, hostility and often hatred are born.
    And truth is born in the head of the researcher. And others are forced to agree with her.
    1. venaya
      venaya 6 October 2015 08: 43 New
      +2
      Quote: populist
      Indeed, in a dispute, truth is born
      In a dispute, rejection, hostility and often hatred are born.

      Everything is envious of the culture of the parties involved. In case of mutual hostility, you are right. But if the parties to the dispute try to reach the truth themselves, then such a dispute can lead to truth, which enriches the knowledge of both parties. And here, on the site, this also happens, I noticed.
      1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
        Uncle VasyaSayapin 6 October 2015 09: 49 New
        +5
        Truth is born in that dispute, the purpose of which is the search for truth. The rest of the debate is a game of the mind and / or a surge of emotions. hi
  6. samarin1969
    samarin1969 6 October 2015 06: 36 New
    +5
    The inaction in the LDNR will come to the Kremlin ... winter plum will give preference only to oligarchs ... And the choir of "devil's advocates" confirms this. In Crimea, the propaganda “Why Donbass is not Crimea” has already been put on stream.
  7. Cornet77
    Cornet77 6 October 2015 06: 57 New
    +4
    Hmm ... It is very similar to the truth, which, however, somehow does not please ...
    1. domokl
      domokl 6 October 2015 07: 03 New
      +1
      Judging by my thoughts, although maybe I'm wrong, the author looks at the situation from the inside at 100%. This is the view of a person who personally experienced all this. because it doesn’t wag its tail like sofa commentators
  8. strannik1985
    strannik1985 6 October 2015 07: 01 New
    +3
    , it is my thought that well explains both the presence of SBU people in the MGB of the DPR, and the presence in leadership positions of people who are closely related to both the Ukrainian oligarchs, and probably Russian, etc.


    And who else to use if, more recently, these areas were de facto part of Ukraine?
    I’ll open my eyes to the author — in the armed forces of the LPR and the DPR, there are many former officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — how else to overcome personnel shortages?
    1. Banshee
      Banshee 6 October 2015 09: 26 New
      0
      Open, open. He there purely tushnyak cracked in the headquarters for several months ...
    2. Kilo-11
      Kilo-11 6 October 2015 12: 23 New
      +1
      I haven’t met many former officers of the Supreme Court, at least in the LPR, of course, but not much. But now in the MGB and the LPR Ministry of Internal Affairs there are more than a lot of former special services of Ukraine. Personnel hunger could be overcome at the expense of our military and staff special services of the reserve, it was just necessary to deploy a certain and constant work. We had this work deployed for a short time, then quickly turned it off for a number of reasons. By the way, we would not have to use “vacationers” so widely. In the LPR, the stake was initially placed on local cadres, there are guys with a peculiar mentality - “themselves with a mustache”, and most importantly, to preserve the “business” that existed since before the war. Yes and the past for a certain part of the current Lugansk officials is more than dark. Therefore, the “personnel hunger” is decided for the expense of Ukrainian personnel, whatever one may say, they are more of their own than from Russia, they know what they need and understand where they need help and what they don't need to notice, but what if the flag of the color of children's surprise will help raise it.
  9. forester
    forester 6 October 2015 07: 49 New
    +9
    After the murder of an independent Brain, the idea came that in the Donbass the situation is not the same as we are presented in the media
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 6 October 2015 08: 08 New
      +4
      Quote: forester
      After the murder of an independent Brain, the idea came that in the Donbass the situation is not the same as we are presented in the media

      She has never been the way she is portrayed in the media. Neither before nor after Brain.
      1. Banshee
        Banshee 6 October 2015 09: 08 New
        +8
        Sash, somewhat wrong. Break Point - December 2014 - January 2015. After that, the quiet movements of neponyatki and so on began. Brainstorming is rather the final point of a crucial period, after which it has already become clear who will steer and how.

        Who - the information comes in, if you can lay out - read. How - and so knowledgeable. The account on the basements is already really in the thousands. And they put not captured VSUshnikov for some reason. And not street thugs. They are virtually gone, they are all officially involved.

        Another issue is that some forces have a desire (specifically in the LC) to change power. All anything, but behind the nominees is such a face, compared with which Carpenter - a high school student. And if specifically, we are talking about Efremov.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 6 October 2015 09: 23 New
          +2
          Quote: Banshee
          The basement count is already really going into the thousands. And they’re not captive

          Roma, well, it’s clear that they are trying to push the Donbass back to Ukraine. It just won’t work out. You can’t change everything and they can raise a riot. The war changes people too much and they don’t give a damn about politicians.
          Quote: Banshee
          And specifically, we are talking about Efremov.

          And what will it change? Everything is already theirs, that Efremov is a wizard. The same puppet.
  10. Gardamir
    Gardamir 6 October 2015 08: 06 New
    +1
    Then the question is, why are Russian television Internet lying, for whom are the products being convoyed?
    1. Kilo-11
      Kilo-11 6 October 2015 11: 45 New
      +8
      Money doesn’t smell, that’s the lie, the reporters don’t have any conscience. For the most part, the contents of humanitarian convoys in the LPR fall into the Narodniy chain of stores owned by Mr. I. Plotnitsky. Another part of the humanitarian aid, with the help of Lugansk officials, leaves the front line, to Ukraine. On the border between the Russian Federation and the LPR, smuggling is carried out in the most active way, in the LPR starting from fuels and lubricants, products and ending with feminine hygiene products, in the Russian Federation weapons and other military goods. Naturally, all this is “covered” by our and Lugansk officials. Do they know Of course, our “observers” know of all these outrages. Why they don’t take measures, so they have their own interest, politics has nothing to do with it. At one time, Bolotov was dismissed and no one pickled. So, if you really would like to put things in order , then they would have pointed it out, but alas, it means to someone this is all very beneficial.
  11. akudr48
    akudr48 6 October 2015 08: 25 New
    +9
    Principle (Occam's razor) is a methodological principle used in science and not only. In its most concise form, it reads: “One should not multiply existing without necessity” or “if all explanations of the phenomenon are equal, then the simplest explanation will be the most correct”.

    The author neglected this principle and gave vent to boundless imagination in describing what is happening in the Donbass.

    For example, the

    1. In Moscow, I accidentally came across a Ukrainian who introduced himself as “a relative of Savchenko”. Between offers to drink, he issued the phrase “I will tell you a secret, DPR is a project of the FSB, LPR is a project of the SBU.

    And such projects may not be, especially when in a proposal to drink between the first and second, as well as the third, etc. the gap is small.

    2. And yesterday, a heretical thought occurred to me: not only the LPR, but the DPR - this project is clearly not Russian.

    The author developed the view that some Ukrainian in Moscow formulated for him about who gave birth to whom, and showed that America is behind the creation of LDNR!

    That is, in his opinion, LDNR did not give birth to the people of Donbass, who, like Crimea, wanted to return to Russia, not Russia itself, which Putin spoke about New Russia and Russian protection in the Donbas, and not even Ukraine, but the USA!
    This is how much you need to drink with the Ukrainian and without him, to think of this ...

    Various organized crime groups merged with power structures, we have Greater Colombia represented by Ukraine and Small Colombia represented by LDNR.

    As you know, Colombia is the leader of the world drug trade, which means that the author believes that Ukraine and LDNR are branches of the world drug mafia, well, this is something new even for Ukraine.
    Probably, besides a drink, the author and the Ukrainian also smoked well ...

    And then I propose to draw conclusions for everyone

    The first conclusion is that the author is complementary to the State Department and the CIA with MI-5 and the Mossad.
    But seriously, this article is the justification for the "discharge" of Donbass, which, since the author is a heretic, as he calls himself, is much more like an order from the 5th column of Russian liberals.
    1. Gardamir
      Gardamir 6 October 2015 08: 50 New
      -2
      That is, in his opinion, LDNR did not give rise to the people of Donbass,
      now it is clear even to the kindergartener.
      the author is complementary to the State Department and the CIA with MI-5 and Mossad.
      but it's time to tie up with this kindergarten.
      1. Banshee
        Banshee 6 October 2015 09: 16 New
        +3
        Quote: akudr48
        This is how much you need to drink with the Ukrainian and without him, to think of this ...


        You can not drink at all. It is enough to have a head on your shoulders, into which you not only eat.

        Quote: akudr48
        The first conclusion is that the author is complementary to the State Department and the CIA with MI-5 and the Mossad.


        Well, yes, we are all there, do not understand who sold. If you have proof that the author receives money from there - present it. If not - it can be regarded so that you will not find it.

        The whole problem is that the author in the territories of the LDNR spent much more time than some of our writers. And quite soberly looks at things.

        And give you only the victorious reports like "Russia forward!", "Krymniash!", "ISIS are cranking!" etc. In short, chewing gum for people. And shorter, because how to read line by line - it is utter flour.

        And to turn on the brains and understand that the tails (the real owners) are turning the dog (LDNR) as they see fit — this is more difficult. And that neither Akhmetov nor Efremov will not give up his. And for this bombing and shelling is not necessary. Everything can be done quietly and calmly. And they do.
        1. BMP-2
          BMP-2 6 October 2015 11: 51 New
          +3
          It's not about relational type
          “Russia is ahead!”, “Krymynyash!”, “ISIS krants!” etc. In short, chewing gum for a hawking people. And shorter, because reading line by line is an utter flour.

          Just turning on the brain and being all this time in different territories all this period (and not just on the LDNR) there are serious doubts that the author describes exactly the “tail” that twists.
  12. Irbis
    6 October 2015 08: 42 New
    -1
    The point is that Russia is being drawn into a conflict (or was being pulled in) for some purpose. We can assume that the United States needs a market for hydrocarbons in the EU, for that it needs to oust Russia from this market and at the same time return it to the state of a raw materials appendage of European civilization. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a great help. The invasion is with shooting, tanks and aircraft. As a result of this action, it would be a refusal to do business with Russia and the arrest (confiscation) of all Russian property and funds located in the United States and the EU.

    There is no point in talking about the discharge of Novorossia, because it is the fact that they themselves have fouled up. Blaming the same Putin that he was not led by this divorce is ridiculous. Russia helps, but at the same time maintains neutrality in these disassemblies. She does not climb roughly into the structure of these entities, because the Europeans will have a real reason to blame that she controls the LDNR. The same goes for the military side of the issue. Remember what was happening from the very beginning? Strelkovtsy, local gangsters, Cossacks, Russian Natsik, Kurginians, local self-defense, etc., etc. That's the question, but what the chaos on the border with Russia? And the conclusion that with this matter suggests itself.

    As for the Russian humanitarian aid, it is brought centrally and local authorities are involved in its distribution and the report should be demanded by the local population.
    1. Banshee
      Banshee 6 October 2015 08: 58 New
      +3
      Quote: Irbis
      We can assume that the US needs a market for hydrocarbons in the EU


      What to assume? They didn’t hide it.

      Quote: Irbis
      As for the Russian humanitarian aid, it is brought centrally and local authorities are involved in its distribution and the report should be demanded by the local population.


      Demand ... Hmm ... Who is very ardently demanding, quickly plays in the basement. Verified
    2. bomg.77
      bomg.77 6 October 2015 11: 11 New
      -3
      The conflict in Donbass was played according to the script described in 1998 and one such attempt was made in 2001, but then it was an initiative., The performers were allowed to play to the end, and then special services were screwed up), unlike the current conflict, where this scenario is multiplied by money and worldwide support yielded results.
      The aim of this first stage of the uprising is not military victories per se, but a sharp transfer of Donbass from the stage of impotent popular indignation to the warpath with which you want, if you want, it will no longer be possible to curtail.
      It should be understood that the emergence of a conflict between the Russian population and the Ukrainian occupying forces is not an end in itself, but only the inevitably necessary first stage of an armed uprising in order to change power in Moscow. The fact is that today it is impossible to start an armed uprising in Moscow for many reasons. And because the authorities formed a monstrous amount of special units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs intended for the armed suppression of opponents, and because in Russia the rebels will find themselves without any physical or moral support from society. Starting the uprising in the legendary city of Russian glory; starting it as an answer to the brutal murder of Russian teenagers, the rebels immediately seek sympathy from all over RUSSIA. And even, of course, they will have the emotional support of some government officials. Subsequently, it will be necessary to skillfully use the intensity of passions in such a way that the government cannot remain aloof from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and participate in it. At first, even in the form of humanitarian aid, parcels of some blankets. And then, under the most severe pressure of the masses and the sending of the peacekeeping corps (which will inevitably go over to the side of the rebels), or in the form of an order to the Black Sea Fleet, to bring peace and order.
      The option of starting an uprising in yet another republic abundantly populated by Russians, in Kazakhstan, disappears. The obstacles will be: a couple of thousand kilometers separating the main densely populated Russian European territories from Kazakhstan, remoteness from the means of communication, the absence of any significant urban centers, the impossibility of full coverage of media events. In May 1997, having arrived at the Cossack circle in Kokchetav, I personally became convinced of the impossibility of an uprising in Kazakhstan. Too far a bearish corner, far from the mainstream media paths. And the media today as objects of attention of the rebels mean much more than the post office, station and telegraph combined, during the time of Lenin.
      So Donbass and only Donbass. There is no other option. Having become entangled in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the government will not stand. Everyone who fought in Transnistria, in Serbia, in Chechnya, is attracted to the Donbass. There are now tens of thousands of such people. Donbass will be our Sierra Maestra, from where we will come to our Havana, to Moscow.
      The emphasis was placed on nationalists, monarchists, they should have become script implementers, if you recall: Milchakov, Girkin, Gubarev, etc. from them, all this, PR nationalist ideologists also actively promoted ... only under the strict guidance of the outside: Malafeev, Dugin, hologorov, lemons, grains, etc.
      And yes, all, PR figures are actors and they initially played a war in order to launch a real war mechanism ..
      This is when there are not enough actors (photo)
      pi.si in the text changed the scene.
      Арабская Spring and RussianSpring, not a Russian project.
  13. Whowhy
    Whowhy 6 October 2015 08: 44 New
    0
    Quote: akudr48
    That is, in his opinion, LDNR did not give birth to the people of Donbass, who, like Crimea, wanted to return to Russia, not Russia itself, which Putin spoke about New Russia and Russian protection in the Donbas, and not even Ukraine, but the USA!
    This is how much you need to drink with the Ukrainian and without him, to think of this ...

    “If ordinary people knew what was going on in the government, then they would stop dying for their homeland” (Charles De Gaulle)
    1. Banshee
      Banshee 6 October 2015 09: 00 New
      +6
      You think there do not know? Republic of something tiny, everything about everything in the course. But the government is not the motherland yet. Therefore, continue to stand. Well at least that they do not die in such quantities as last year.
      1. Stirbjorn
        Stirbjorn 6 October 2015 15: 19 New
        +1
        “If our soldiers understood why we were fighting, it would not be possible to wage a single war.” (Frederick II the Great)
  14. Irbis
    6 October 2015 09: 01 New
    0
    I have a feeling that some comrades are fixated on Novorossia. They require her as a child candy. And this child does not care that mom has no money, and her hands are busy.

    By the way, I don’t know how anyone has the theme of Novorossia, why I’m closely connected with Strelkov, Tsarev and Gubarev and their ilk. Somehow about her more often from there screams are heard. Maybe someone else? :-)
    1. Banshee
      Banshee 6 October 2015 09: 28 New
      +4
      Quote: Irbis
      Somehow about her more often from there screams are heard.


      Because they yell from the territory of Russia. There is no screaming like that. It has long been no longer shouting and not criticizing. Vaughn, Purgin tried. And where is he?

      In Crimea. Together with all his former faction in the People’s Council.
  15. Vladimir
    Vladimir 6 October 2015 09: 07 New
    +2
    Quote: forester
    After the murder of an independent Brain, the idea came that in the Donbass the situation is not the same as we are presented in the media

    I completely agree with you that the Ukrainian media that the Russians distorted in some way information about the events in the Donbas, but somehow I think that it is premature to give pessimistic forecasts for the Donbass. and finished for the repose.
  16. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 6 October 2015 09: 11 New
    +1
    Question on the culinary forum:
    - Tell me, is it necessary to put oil in tartlets with black caviar?
    Answer:
    - Schaub Vee greeted, swear i Mos ...
  17. robbihood
    robbihood 6 October 2015 09: 43 New
    +4
    I talked with a guy from Donetsk, their IT company moved to Minsk, rented a room in our house. They left with their families at the end of last year. He says that almost no one is left from the IT business in Donetsk. And Donetsk was one of the leaders in this sector, I know. All his friends and families got over. From the USA to Russia. On skype daily connected with relatives in Donetsk. The main message is that there will be nothing good for the Donetsk people under any circumstances. The middle class left, the marginals were shot, the prospects were zero. For what I bought .. Maybe in Russia there is more information.
    1. mu1972
      mu1972 6 October 2015 23: 47 New
      0
      nonsense and untruth! - he left and let him not be clever, does he communicate via skype, with whom with the same people as he is? I live in Donetsk and I can say that everything is much better than he is trying to tell, here all the same the war is on and not at the nightclub party. his acquaintances probably sit on the boiler room - there is such a district in Donetsk where there are no signs of war at all and shell explosions are not heard
  18. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 6 October 2015 10: 01 New
    +4
    The current state of affairs within the LDNR, in my opinion, once again proves that Russia did not lead to this divorce, thereby frustrating Plan B, as it tries to practically not intervene in the affairs of the republics, although the calculation was just for that.
    In my opinion, the opposite is true, and Russia directly controls the Lao PDR, including with the help of humanitarian convoys and military trade. For Ukrainians do not even hide that after the Donbass they will fly to the Crimea.

    The deputy head of the presidential administration of Ukraine Konstantin Eliseev called the Donbass a preparation for the return of Crimea.
    I believe that if we lose the Donbass, then how can we demand the return of Crimea. Therefore, Donbass is a preparatory stage for the return of Crimea
    1. Irbis
      6 October 2015 10: 21 New
      -2
      Gomkonvoi and voentorg in no way prove that Russia controls the LDNR. This is only a way to stabilize the situation in the problem area.
      1. Stirbjorn
        Stirbjorn 6 October 2015 15: 11 New
        +2
        So you can say that the recall of Generals Bezler and Petrovsky, Ataman Kozitsyn, well, you yourself know whom, the same
        Quote: Irbis
        only a way to stabilize the situation in the problem area
        1. Irbis
          6 October 2015 15: 51 New
          0
          Exactly. Do not draw conclusions about these people on the basis of youtube and Vkontakte. Otherwise, live communication with people at the scene of events can upset you very much :-) And I’m generally keep quiet about various ATAMANS.
          1. Stirbjorn
            Stirbjorn 6 October 2015 21: 13 New
            +1
            I read the blogs of Kasad, Chervonets, Kota Murza, etc., there is no need to wave "inmost knowledge" here
            1. Irbis
              6 October 2015 23: 38 New
              0
              Really:
              - Isaac did you listen to the Beatles?
              - Yes, but I liked it!
              - And where?
              - Mnei Moishe sang!
              1. Irbis
                7 October 2015 00: 54 New
                0
                * Yes, but I did not like it!
  19. hartlend
    hartlend 6 October 2015 10: 09 New
    +1
    In a dispute, he is right who shouts everyone, and does not smell of truth there.
  20. Alexl
    Alexl 6 October 2015 10: 09 New
    +5
    What kind of crap is the author invented here .... Why, they say, Kharkov Alpha cleared Kharkov, but did not touch Donetsk? Yes, because it was not Kharkov Alfa Kharkov that cleared the junta from opponents, but sent from Vinnitsa and other western regions. And the local Alpha quietly merged. While in Donetsk, the local Alpha and Golden Eagle went over to the side of the people.
    1. Stirbjorn
      Stirbjorn 6 October 2015 15: 13 New
      +2
      Well and then, I would say that while Kharkov, Donetsk and Lugansk were already cleared for this cleaning
  21. Erg
    Erg 6 October 2015 10: 19 New
    +2
    About nothing. Ukrainian oligarchs, Russian ... Yes it is pawns. If the author does not see that the game is playing at a higher level, then what can be required of him ...
  22. N-SKiy
    N-SKiy 6 October 2015 10: 25 New
    +2
    Quote: Irbis
    There is no point in talking about the discharge of New Russia, because they merge what they themselves have muddied. Accusing Putin of the same that he did not indulge in this divorce is ridiculous.


    Not leaked and not going to. According to him. They will receive a special status or autonomy, and all according to the bestowed Crimean scenario. It remains only to wait. And to fortify New Russia, we won’t leave the jackals to be torn to pieces.
  23. rosarioagro
    rosarioagro 6 October 2015 10: 57 New
    0
    "New Russia: to be or not to be?"

    Find gas and you will have all the goodies, look here - http://www.vestifinance.ru/infographics/2147
  24. Sergey060781
    Sergey060781 6 October 2015 11: 14 New
    -3
    In fact, everything is correctly written in the article.
  25. Tambov Wolf
    Tambov Wolf 6 October 2015 11: 57 New
    +3
    Having given Novorossia, we will get problems in the Crimea. Dill with the Yankees will not stop if they are not stopped. Let's hope for the best.
  26. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 6 October 2015 13: 47 New
    0
    It bothers me that we were forced, under the pressure of circumstances, to enter Crimea to prevent Amer’s consolidation there. Now it’s also compelled, they entered Syria so that the Americans would not enter a no-fly zone over Syria and remove Assad. In chess, this is called zugzwang, a forced move that worsens the position of the player who made it. Where else will the forced moves lead us?
    1. Stirbjorn
      Stirbjorn 6 October 2015 15: 16 New
      +2
      Forcedly, the liberal-economic bloc in the government would be shaken up, replacing Nabibulin, for example, with Glazyev and in the same spirit, I would only be glad in my heart - although I would seriously worry about the next pressure from the Americans wassat
  27. mintai_kot
    mintai_kot 6 October 2015 13: 47 New
    +1
    As such, the Novorossiya project did not take place due to the fault of local kings. Having seized power, they share business, trade in alcohol, medicines, cigarettes, etc. and because of the impossibility of dividing the business between the DPR, the LPR established real customs between the regions !!! How much Zakharchenko didn’t say that we won’t give dill to coal, trains go to Artyomovsk around the clock. And there are hundreds of such examples!
  28. Prutkov
    Prutkov 6 October 2015 17: 12 New
    +2
    At night, all cats are gray. How objectively can we, sofa politicians and analysts, evaluate current events and their consequences? The fact that the Novorossiya project is not originally a Russian project is agreed by most readers of the site. Its goal, too, is understandable to the majority - to provide Russia with a game of “Afghanistan 2.0”, organize isolation of the country and arrange a coup under the guise of the next presidential election. But did everything work out as the puppeteers conceived? The fact that a Maidan is planned in Ukraine and a high probability of a civil war, but only in the Crimea, can be determined if we recall the events of the couple of years preceding the Maidan. Citizens of Ukraine should remember how an active information attack was conducted on law enforcement agencies (scandals with corruption and rape, campaigns against Kiev). There was such a story in 2012 - for several months in Kiev, in unknown districts of the city, unknown people hung a scarecrow of a policeman. In the southern regions of Ukraine, fighters from the Caucasus were periodically caught. Collisions of the Tatars with the Golden Eagle in the Crimea. In general, it was clear that even if Yanukovych succeeds in turning off election fraud in March 2015 (which in itself seems unlikely), the Orange Revolution 2.0 will not take long. In any case, Crimea expected the fate of Syria. For this, there were Islamists, yes, and the "friendship trains" from Galicia were ready. And Russia could not do anything, because Yanukovych’s legitimacy would be doubtful, and economic problems in Russia itself (in the absence of sanctions, the country's GDP was already at the level of statistical error) would set people against the government. And there, you see, the presidential election in the Russian Federation. Therefore, the Maidan in 2015 would be more logical. But there was a false start - the crowd was heated up and raised to rebellion much earlier than the deadline. In an interview with French media in the spring of 2014, GDP said he was surprised at such early events in Ukraine. Those. Maidan was quite expected, but in 2015. Perhaps they decided to hide behind the Olympics in Sochi in order to prevent Russian intervention ahead of schedule. And then went overlay. Yanukovych survived and even managed to get to Russia (lucky thief!). And now GDP has a joker in its pocket, because According to the Constitution, there is still no reason to legally dismiss the post. Active actions of the special forces in Crimea prevented the development of events according to the Odessa scenario, and Crimea itself became Russian without blood. And then ... Was there an opportunity to prevent a civil war? This question can be answered only by people living in Ukraine, and who were witnesses, and sometimes - participants in some events. The increase in the degree of confrontation on the Maidan, the seizure of military units, self-government bodies, the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the west and in the center of Ukraine, made a civil war inevitable. The question was only - where and when. The fact that many understood this is evidenced by the fact that Turchinov signed the decree on the ATO in early March 2014, when there was no talk of Novorossiya. Even then, Russia was invited to fight in Ukraine. Prepared public opinion. Residents of Kiev may recall that in the very first days of March panic rumors circulated around the city that "the Russians are coming and bringing Yanukovych with them." But the Russians did not come. And the "Russian Spring" began in the Donbass and in the south of the country. It is impossible to blame the insincerity of the people who went for the seizure, and in Kharkov the liberation of administrative buildings from maydaunov. They clearly imagined Ukrainianization in the style of Farion-Chornovol. There were no illusions among the Berkut fighters, betrayed by Yanukovych that they would be forgiven. Here it is - the vaunted "controlled chaos" that arises from nowhere and which goes where it is required. It was required to invite Russia to the war. Then everyone knows what happened ... It is a pity for the people ... But they had no choice ...
  29. Arandir
    Arandir 6 October 2015 19: 17 New
    +1
    This is not even an analysis, but a fortune-telling on the coffee grounds upon the fact of already completed events. And then nothing is clear what is happening in reality. We don’t understand - it’s not mature enough. The scale is not the same. We sit and look what will happen next. And so there is a great desire to imagine himself as great strategists.
  30. polkovnik manuch
    polkovnik manuch 6 October 2015 20: 01 New
    +1
    New Russia is and will be, a little time will pass and everything will "settle down."
  31. RRR
    RRR 6 October 2015 20: 52 New
    +1
    Quote: Arandir
    This is not even an analysis, but a fortune-telling on the coffee grounds upon the fact of already completed events.


    This is not an analysis but a SPECIFIC "Overton window" that you all swallowed "by the very tomatoes" laughing With what I congratulate you.
    Now you can analyze the situation to the blue brooms bully

    Now I will write roughly, but fairly:
    Do you know how it started in Lugansk? With the fact that a video appeared on YouTube in which 4 stoned morons declared themselves Donbass partisans, and the people were already "on the platoon"

    And here is what is interesting: video appeared on sites that junta opponents trusted 100%. On the "pro-Russian" sites.

    If you have at least 30 grams of brain in your head, it will be clear - with 3 machine guns and a gun there can be no uprising. Moreover, at the same time, there was information in the net that these rebellions were paid for by the oligarchs (who didn’t specify, but hinted at Akhmetov and Efremov)

    Outwardly, it looked theatrical, which was what my friends said.
    The "hosts of the show" were also visible, throwing up the right ideas at the right time.

    Does it bother you? And to me, and to tens of thousands of others, if everyone hoped for improvement?
    BUT! Each revolution is paid by someone, and if necessary, it simply rushes ...
  32. Vlad5307
    Vlad5307 6 October 2015 23: 04 New
    0
    Perhaps the author is right somewhere with LDNR, I can agree that there was a provocation controlled by the oligarchs of Russia and the Outskirts. The events preceding Minsk-1,2 indirectly confirm this, and GDP asked Donbass to wait. But the situation with the Crimea was completely different! The Yankees aimed at him as their future NATO military base with all the ensuing points. Then they could already dictate their conditions to the Russian Federation. This could not be allowed and here everything was done by the GDP in a timely and correct manner. And now, with the annexation of Crimea, the Russian Federation has the opportunity to control not only the Black Sea region, but also create a group to control BV. And current events with Syria have proved the correctness of such a move of the Russian Federation in the Crimea. Having acquired Crimea, Russia left the country as a regional player again into a global one, which makes it possible to solve geopolitical tasks to strengthen its security sovereignty. We returned to BV, created their coalition as opposed to the American one. and All this is the result of the return of Crimea. GDP with the team was able to wipe its nose for hegemons from NATO. And whether there will be more! hi
    1. Stirbjorn
      Stirbjorn 7 October 2015 08: 59 New
      0
      "Rabinovich, you either remove the cross or put on your underpants .."
      From the point of view of the West and especially Ukraine, Crimea was illegally annexed. And if the Ukrainians flooded into the Crimea, from the point of view of the world community, it would be completely legal. The fact that the Russian army did not frighten the ukrovermaht at all in the summer of 2014 was clear from the mortar attacks on Russian territory in the Rostov Region, including with casualties. Or attack aircraft over our checkpoint were deployed dill. And if not for the Donbass, with the subsequent Ilovaisk defeat, they would have beaten from their territory in the Crimea. The conflict was inevitable, after the annexation of Crimea, the only question was where would it flare up. So decide whether there was either no reason to climb into the Crimea with the Donbass, or go to the victorious end. I couldn’t know about Syria in February 2014 that ISIS was transforming like this in the summer of that year. Nothing special, before that they did not stand out among the heaps of Islamic groups.
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  35. Victorio
    Victorio 6 October 2015 23: 32 New
    0
    but why already look there and look for excuses / reasons / mistakes, they acted on the principle of their own shirt closer to the body.
  36. mu1972
    mu1972 6 October 2015 23: 48 New
    +1
    The article is nonsense!