Military Review

"The situation will be aggravated"

28
October 2 in the city of Paris will host a meeting in the "Norman format" of heads of state - the guarantors of the Minsk settlement process in the former Ukraine. It is in the “former Ukraine”, because Ukraine can’t be returned to Ukraine with a homeless, free from nationalist intoxication, roughly speaking, Yanukovych: the volunteers destroyed and burned it on the Maidan in Kiev, Odessa, Mariupol, Kharkov, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, throughout Donbas. The Minsk agreements are designed to find a way out of the Ukrainian crisis that has flared up, the Paris meeting will actually be summed up, because “Minsk” is valid only until December 31, 2015, that is, it will end in three months.




It has already been announced that after the summit there will be audiences of Putin and Merkel, Putin and Hollande, but there will definitely not be a meeting of Putin and Poroshenko, the press secretary Dmitry Peskov emphasized. And this is an important sign.

What did Europe come to Paris with? The plan of Pierre Morel, coordinator of the Minsk tripartite working group, according to which Kiev should adopt a separate, special law on elections in the Donbas, is known, they should be held while maintaining the status quo. Poroshenko not only rejected this plan, but also, as usual, lied that this was a personal opinion of Pierre Morel. This is the opinion of Paris and Berlin, and it is not fully but coincides with the position of Moscow: it takes into account its most important requirement for holding elections in the Donbas and maintaining the status quo.

Official Kiev is in favor of holding elections in the Donbas "according to Ukrainian laws, after the disarmament of the" militants "," the withdrawal of Russian troops and the transfer of control over the border to Ukraine. " That is, Kiev would like first, without a fight, to get a military victory over the Donbas, and then deal with it "according to Ukrainian laws." This position is forced by the American curator of Banderia, the ambassador in Kiev, Jeffrey Payette.

The unofficial side of “Minsk” is Washington, and specifically Vice-President of the USA Joe Biden, the architect of Kiev Maidan, and Banderia, who was born from it. This is his second project in the post-Soviet space: before that, he lighted the “beacon of democracy” from Saakashvili Georgia, in Kiev, he simply sat at the head of the Bandera leaders during his visit.

Michael Carpenter, an adviser to Biden, recently told the press that the boss was "extremely concerned about the level of corruption in Ukraine." But most importantly, Biden “fears that the Minsk agreements before the end of the year will be completely disrupted by the elections in the DPR and the LPR”. Corruption charges for Washington are a constant propaganda cover for his extreme political displeasure, this time Poroshenko, possibly for disrupting the August offensive of the Bandera troops in the Donbass, after his meeting in Berlin 24 in August with Chancellor Merkel.

Joe Biden allegedly threatened Poroshenko to refuse support. In general, the expression of fear in the breakdown of the Minsk agreements in the language of the American mafia means an order to disrupt them. Otherwise - they will refuse to support. Then these threats to Biden were disavowed by the State Department, but then Poroshenko still has time to thwart the “Minsk”.

Knowing the approximate positions of the parties, we can assume that Poroshenko in Paris will be under pressure, like 24 of August in Berlin, from the side of the guarantors of Minsk. But how will all this end? The latest "menacing" statements of Poroshenko "to give Moscow in the teeth" say that he is not childishly afraid of the "father" Biden and his "son" Payette. That is, it is likely that Poroshenko will go on disrupting the “Minsk” after the elections in the Donbass, as Joe Biden predicts.

In general, at the end of 2015, three important events are superimposed: the October elections in Banderia and Donbas, the payment of 3's billion-dollar debt to Kiev Moscow, and the official end of the Minsk peace process. And all three events are with a negative outlook: holding the October elections on “Ukraine” is fraught with clashes with Maidans and gunfights, Moscow refuses to pay Moscow’s debt, so the default shines for it, the Minsk agreements may be thwarted by Kiev. “The situation will be aggravated,” Kiev political analyst Mikhail Pogrebinsky made his forecast for the end of the year, and it’s hard to disagree.

After the breakdown of “Minsk”, Kyiv may resume artillery shelling of the Donbass, as it was in August, right up to attempts at a winter offensive. Not only in pursuance of Biden's instructions, but also for domestic political reasons. As the election of 25 October approaches, the main political front for Poroshenko will be the internal political front, its confrontation with the ultranationalists (fascists) and the oligarch Kolomoisky, according to a number of Ukrainian political analysts.

Poroshenko has already announced that he will declare martial law in the event of an aggravation of the situation in the Donbas, but, on the contrary, it is possible to exacerbate the situation in the Donbas in order to impose martial law in the country, in fact, a military dictatorship, and try to crush his political opponents by force. And redirect the protest energy to the Donbass, the so-called Third Maidan against the Poroshenkovsky power of “internal occupation”. How can all this end? Someone Lyashko prophesies that "Poroshenko will be taken out of the administration on the forks." There are other unpredictable
scenarios.

In the event of the breakdown of the Minsk Agreements, Moscow will untie its hands for a new policy regarding Kiev, the Donbass, and Berlin with Paris. Russia, in fact, is not yet responding with counter-sanctions - the refusal of the supply of goods on its part. After Minsk, Russia may respond to restrictions on the supply of energy resources, such as coal and electricity, to Kiev in connection with its violation of human rights and crimes against humanity. Moreover, in December, the Crimea will connect the energy bridge with the Kuban, and it will no longer depend sharply on the supply of electricity from Ukraine.

Thus, at the end of the year, events of a historical order may occur in the former Ukraine, including the recognition by Russia of the Novorossiysk republics of Donbass. If ... Washington will not surrender its "Ukrainian project", that is, Joe Biden and his associate McCain will fall into disgrace. There are no signals of this kind from the USA yet.

From Donetsk to Kiev
Two years of war
Bandera and SS "Galichina",
And the Black Sea lies.

From life to death -
One mine.
From love to hate -
One Ukraine ...
Author:
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  1. B- 3ACADE
    B- 3ACADE 2 October 2015 06: 04
    +7
    I already feel the process has gone downhill.
    Recognizable odor in the air at the front
    any person. And grumble, grumble-DAMBEL-come on !!!
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 2 October 2015 06: 15
      21
      Quote: B- 3ACADE
      grumble, grumble-DAMBEL-come on !!!

      Here Poroshenko is afraid of demobilization! What a murmur!
      Unsolicitedly, he collected all the claims together, processed and abstracted the officer of the 25 separate motorized infantry battalion “Kievan Rus” Vasily Shcherbakov, who came to the ATO as a volunteer to “defend the country”.
      He addressed his voice directly to the head of state Petro Poroshenko. The fighter asked the president of 10 questions. An angry military man doesn’t stand on ceremony with a politician, he speaks to him “you” and the conversation is somewhat unceremonious, although the talk is about a Facebook post, and everyone is bold there.
      “Explain to me, Poroshenko, why the 25th battalion after three months in the ATO rots at the training ground? Why are we ourselves looking for water? Why is there no toilet? Why are we banned from smoking? Why were we banned from using electricity? Why are soldiers instead of resting in the barracks again living in the mud? Why are the Avakovskie dogs (the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov. - Approx. FAN) the National Guard under no minutes, come out in three weeks, and they are greeted with flowers, and we walked 300 kilometers on the armor and got only searches? Why are you killing morale in mobilized guys? Why are glamorous girls from the police receiving 10 thousand hryvnias, and my soldiers at the front - three? Why did you, (swear word), withdraw military units, and bring in unfired, poorly armed, terrified recruits? Why is the prosecutor’s office working with us instead of psychologists? ”Wrote Scherbakov.

      Well, we also give orders via Facebook, so this entry will be seen and read sooner than a "letter from the front". But try to send them to demobilization, they can smash Kiev.
      1. Lelek
        Lelek 2 October 2015 11: 42
        +4
        Quote: Egoza
        But try to send such to the demobilization, they can also smash Kiev.


        Hello Lena. You, as always, present "spicy".
        The fact is (IMHO) that the Kiev handlers are "in a raskoryachka". It is IMPOSSIBLE to fulfill the demands of the "front-line soldiers", Bandera, oligarchs and the main puppeteer at the same time in the presence of growing discontent of 80% of the country's population. And to choose one general direction, these so-called. the "rulers" cannot, due to the lack of sufficient authority (average rating 5-7 %%) and threats, to immediately get in the teeth from the rest of the defendants. So, "khosh, not khosh", and the bloody denouement of the stage of the history of the former Ukraine is inevitable (again, IMHO).
    2. The comment was deleted.
  2. Wolka
    Wolka 2 October 2015 06: 05
    +3
    wait and see, but the Russians will definitely have to tighten the belt ...
    1. Krasmash
      Krasmash 2 October 2015 06: 17
      39
      Quote: Volka
      wait and see, but the Russians will definitely have to tighten the belt ...

      Correct if I'm wrong. We are in this mode for the second millennium.
    2. 33 Watcher
      33 Watcher 2 October 2015 08: 42
      10
      So, they didn’t stretch, always the TRP ... wink
  3. Barboskin
    Barboskin 2 October 2015 06: 31
    18
    DLNR will not go back to Ukraine unequivocally, why ?! What would fall under disassembly and repression that would pay the IMF Bandera debts? Russia is also not ready to accept them yet, in general they are in limbo, yes gentlemen. Why such a banter on elections? Yes, because they will choose a power that can be officially recognized, and then this power will officially begin to hold a referendum on which they will raise the question of remaining independent (this is not realistic), returning to Ukraine (Arctic fox), and the third is Russia. To start this, you need official power, representatives of the people. So, around the elections, Mr. Boil will still boil, turn. hi
  4. Shiva83483
    Shiva83483 2 October 2015 06: 46
    +6
    According to the centuries-old principle of saloids: Hai girsche-ale inche ... well, comrades fought for sho, and ran into it ...
    1. inkass_98
      inkass_98 2 October 2015 07: 51
      +1
      Quote: Shiva83483
      Hai girsche-ale inche.

      Yes, this masochism has been cultivated for centuries. It’s just that their idea will not come to a logical end, i.e. to self-destruction. Waited for the end of Svidomo.
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 2 October 2015 07: 03
    +5
    In case of failure of the Minsk agreements, Moscow will have its hands untied for a new policy with regard to Kiev, Donbass, and Berlin with Paris.

    Well, let's see how seriously our leadership is ready to talk with these "partners". Because the breakdown of agreements will be necessary.
  6. Name
    Name 2 October 2015 07: 05
    16
    Sadness is sadness in Ukraine. Parasenko’s tricks filled his mouth. Bole does not ride.
  7. parusnik
    parusnik 2 October 2015 07: 28
    +6
    at the Paris meeting, in fact, the results will be summarized, because Minsk is valid only until December 31, 2015, that is, it will end in three months.... Let’s fail, they’ll say that it’s necessary to speed up the process, this will end .. And from 2016 everything will start again .. war .. U Poroshenko and his curators, there is no other way ... Fashington will not hand over his “Ukrainian project”, he is in Syria, already lost .. By the way, the first trucks went along the building bridge over the Kerch Strait ...
  8. surrozh
    surrozh 2 October 2015 07: 41
    +4
    To the political dispositions, you can add economic ones. There is nothing to pay lard 3 with - let the West pay and not pay - then the default and the absence of loans from the West also affects Petya. The "Gabonization" of the population will intensify, the Ukrainian ones will definitely not stand competition with Western goods, the European association is on the nose, and again the vicious circle with the impoverishment of people. It's time to launch the slogan "This is what the Ukrainians have brought Ukraine to!"
    1. tolyasik0577
      tolyasik0577 2 October 2015 10: 37
      +2
      It's time to launch the slogan "This is what the Ukrainians have brought Ukraine to!
      Do you know what the slogan will actually be - "This is what Ukraine has been brought to." And to demand compensation for the next Holodomor, arranged by "yami".
  9. Neophyte
    Neophyte 2 October 2015 08: 18
    +2
    Another "flogging" of Poroshenko in the "4" format will do nothing. Smiling sweetly, slightly
    will scold and let go home. In essence, the EU is no longer up to Ukraine, and the "Boss" will decide what to do with Petrushka.
  10. igordok
    igordok 2 October 2015 08: 20
    +2
    I would finish the title drawing. The "Pravosektornaya" check has been pulled out, but something does not allow the lever to free itself and tear Ukraine apart. And this subject, which does not allow the lever to be freed and to tear Ukraine apart, is Russia. True, after that, a grenade, i.e. Ukraine, all the same to the scrap (or fuse).
  11. YurokR
    YurokR 2 October 2015 08: 41
    +4
    Quote: Krasmash
    Quote: Volka
    wait and see, but the Russians will definitely have to tighten the belt ...

    Correct if I'm wrong. We are in this mode for the second millennium.

    We don’t get used to it. It’s a pity that many of our oligarchs have just not been Russians.
  12. Stinger
    Stinger 2 October 2015 08: 53
    0
    Official Kiev advocates holding elections in the Donbas "according to Ukrainian laws, after the disarmament of the" fighters "," the withdrawal of Russian troops and the transfer to Ukraine of control over the border. " That is, Kiev would like to first, without a fight, get a military victory over the Donbass, and then deal with it "according to Ukrainian laws."

    This is the plan for a peaceful settlement according to the Kiev-American logic. It was conceived even before Minsk and was voiced by Poroshenko. Nobody is going to give it up. Neither the curator from Washington, nor, moreover, Poroshenko. Therefore, Kiev does not do any coordination of documents on political regulation with Donbass. They are "terrorists" headed by a "terrorist state" and, moreover, an "aggressor".
  13. s.melioxin
    s.melioxin 2 October 2015 09: 11
    +8
    Thus, at the end of the year, events of a historical order may occur in the former Ukraine ...
    Yeah. How many do not swim on the waves, but you have to pester the shore. Much can be decided by the end of this and the beginning of another year. He grabbed the tug, do not say that not a dozen! Need to live.
  14. atamankko
    atamankko 2 October 2015 09: 32
    +1
    In the power of Bandera is full of loonies, thieves and cheaters, it is not predictable
  15. AnaBat
    AnaBat 2 October 2015 09: 45
    0
    Ukraine in 2002 assigned Assad the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise I degree smile

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Асад,_Башар
  16. Patriot 771
    Patriot 771 2 October 2015 09: 59
    +8
    Sad, funny, disgusting. The most interesting thing is that the dill, with whom we have been together for decades, together, are so guzzled by hatred of everything Russian that they lost the ability to think sensibly. Looking at the Khokhlyat reports from the place of the blockade of the Crimea, I wonder how hateful adults of about 50 say about the correctness of this vomit. People!!!! It turns out that those whom we called brothers are enemies to the core. Why? Yes, their toad gnaws in relation to the Crimea, and in relation to all this ..dlying what is happening in dill. In the race for European happiness, they forgot about the elementary - who do you need on..en there ?? My friends from Kherson say that recently someone very eagerly takes out the earth. Doesn’t resemble anything? So, gentlemen, Svidomity, you are so stupefied that you don’t see anything around you, but most likely you see, only you learned to engage in sex with yourself. (very softly said). TIRES, TRAINERS, banderlogs are tired of disgrace !!!!!!
  17. Alexnder
    Alexnder 2 October 2015 10: 07
    +1
    Yes, today will be an interesting day!
    Petya is bent, - he had better not return to Kiev.
    Non-fulfillment of Minsk 2 will begin to broadcast on us - so we need not to go to these meetings anymore.
    The best deal is Petya-Paris-Suitcase-Washington!
  18. loaln
    loaln 2 October 2015 10: 25
    0
    "... but there will definitely not be a meeting between Putin and Poroshenko ..."

    That's what, but there are big doubts about it. Again we rush to extremes. Before the UN General Assembly, we were continuously stuffing (in the press and the media) for this meeting, but it turned out that the USA was stuffing for a meeting with us. But they were silent as partisans.
    Now the same situation is planned? Only Ukrainians will be a bastard ...
  19. 2224460
    2224460 2 October 2015 10: 36
    +1
    Poroshenko has already said that he will declare martial law in case of aggravation of the situation in the Donbass
    Yes, how many times I wanted to announce, until the "IMF" told him that they were not officially giving MONEY to the belligerent countries, so he had an eternal "ATO".
    Thus, at the end of the year, historical events may occur in the former Ukraine,
    So it’s not a day that that “historical event” was overtaken, half of the country has already fled from this “historicity”, but the truth is that history is more and more in “brown” tones.
  20. Awaz
    Awaz 2 October 2015 10: 43
    +1
    At the moment, the Ukrainian junta has not fulfilled a single point in Minsk 2. In addition, some points had deadlines. I don't even know what the Russian representatives are going to do there, but for me it is necessary to present a clear and tough assessment of events and already start expressing my opinion on the situation: concrete and tough. we must already stop playing diplomacy. And it was necessary to start earlier. The deadlines were indicated there, and as soon as the deadline was over and nothing was done, it was necessary to gather such a company and figure out why and how and who to blame and the guilty face about the table. At the moment, Novorossiya is fulfilling all obligations for Minsk, with the exception of those that they should have done together with the Ukrainians and after the Ukrainians have fulfilled their points. Novorossi's hands are completely untied. Even "foreign" mercenaries left for Syria tongue There are no armed forces on the territory of Novorossiya, only the police. It fits into Minsk 2. The parliament of Novrossia is "dissolved". To hold elections, even according to Ukrainian legislation, there is no fear. It can be even worse for the junta, and therefore the case is being slowed down. In general, in my opinion, it's time to put a clear and tough assessment as well as an ultimatum (we are terrorists or know) and let them twitch in Kiev already.
  21. Dimon-chik-79
    Dimon-chik-79 2 October 2015 11: 40
    +3
    Everything about such predictions is fair. Ukraine must eventually fulfill the mission entrusted to it by ours. And really no one in Kiev, that is, in the West, did not intend to observe any Minsk. The only caveat is that this mission can no longer be fulfilled under a sheep's skin. What not to do everything will be an act of aggression towards the side that observes all the points of the "peace man"
    Very successful in my opinion cricket in an (interesting) article
  22. prawdawsegda
    prawdawsegda 2 October 2015 12: 57
    +3
    Ukraine will be extorted by its current friends and abandoned. And Russia will again happen to save the so-called brothers. So I want to let them live in their current state for 10 years, so that they understand who is friend and who is the enemy.
  23. Balagan
    Balagan 2 October 2015 18: 21
    0
    We will save, of course. But they are no longer our brothers either. A year ago, it all cut into the heart. Like, how are you guys? And classmates there, and friends. And the guys give us one star after another. At first, we got poorer, and then thought better of it. We got a vaccine specific. So we will save them, I think, through a high-quality filter. Let the ships prepare in advance so as not to choke on board, like the White Guards.
  24. Toorik
    Toorik 3 October 2015 07: 37
    0
    judging by yesterday's reports, Europe still leaked Ukraine ... but the US alone will not climb ....