The Russian budget is about half dependent on taxes from the oil and gas sector. Despite the dramatic fall in oil prices, the budget for 2015 was set up on the basis of very optimistic estimates. Low oil prices are dragging down the Russian currency and, as a result, the volume of the monetary and credit base is decreasing. But it’s not worthwhile to see only negative moments in the cheapening of oil, said NSN Advisor to the President of Russia on Regional Economic Integration Sergey Glazyev.
“There is no need to create panic because of falling oil prices,” said NSN Eyes. - To reduce the price of black gold you need to look for positive moments! And above all it is - the cheapening of energy. Previously, no one considered separate oil and non-oil budgets. Linking budget expenditures to the price of oil is a rule imposed on us by the International Monetary Fund. It is this approach that played a fatal role in financing our development. Instead of investing petrodollars in development, we buried them in a stabilization fund and gave loans to Western countries. Today we need a budget to transfer everything to normal sources of replenishment. ”
“Every year we lose a trillion rubles due to the export of capital, which goes to offshore zones without paying taxes. A couple more trillions are leaking because of the shadow economy and its inappropriate regulation. If you eliminate these shadow zones, you can compensate for lost revenues from oil. It is necessary to reorganize the tax on the extraction of minerals. This tax should be rented and paid from super-profits from the use of our subsoil, and not be a tax from the consumer, thereby increasing energy prices, ”said the NSN source.
According to the expert, import substitution in our country is real and possible.
“Capacity utilization in knowledge-intensive industries is only 20-30%. Production output can be increased by several times if loans are granted. The calculations carried out by the State Council showed that the potential volume of import substitution is 3 trillion rubles. But in order to produce products for this amount, you need to take loans for 2 trillion rubles. And the volume of the monetary base has been decreasing for the second year in a row. Therefore, enterprises are not able to expand production, despite the fact that after the fall of the ruble, the price competitiveness of our products has doubled. And since the debt load of enterprises today amounts to more than half of working capital, there is no possibility to expand production without additional credit. As a result, enterprises, instead of import substitution, simply raise prices to make ends meet. And the Central Bank, trying to suppress inflation by reducing the monetary base, actually strengthens it, ”the presidential adviser complains.
“Import substitution is the most important direction, which is much talked about, but due to the fault of the Central Bank, little is done for its development. To count on this issue only on the initiative of young personnel and talented engineers is not worth it. Our people are capable of heroic deeds, but to force people to commit them every day is not humane, ”summed up Sergei Glazyev in an interview with the National Socialist Party.
Experts note that despite the fact that oil has almost doubled in price, taxes and fees from the oil and gas sector remain the main source of income for the federal budget. In the face of falling industrial production and the lack of reform, there are no chances for oil dependence to be removed. And the announced import substitution policy cannot lead to a significant acceleration of industrial production, as happened after the devaluation of the ruble 1998 of the year, unless supported by large-scale investments.