Military Review

A closer look to the East

43
A closer look to the East



Western media show a unique awareness of issues that relate to the Russian military department. At first, it was suggested that Russia was preparing to enter ground forces in Syria. Moreover, many media outlets, especially the French, succeeded in this, even justifying such a possible decision by the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation that the coalition, waging war only by air raids, did not achieve any results in the struggle against IS. On the contrary, the “Islamic state” only in some places undertook a tactical withdrawal, and in general even expanded its holdings. Therefore, some journalists of the fifth republic expressed the view that only Russia is capable of conducting ground action against Islamist forces in the Middle East theater of war, the need for which, in their opinion, was long overdue.

Then there were clarifying messages that Russia is not really going to send troops into Syria, but only supplies arms. As for the personnel, then, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, only military advisers are sent to Damascus to train Syrian soldiers in the use of Russian weapons. The media traditionally mistrust such official statements and emphasize that the supply of military cargo from Russia has recently increased significantly. Moreover, the Russian side is building new military facilities, modernizing airfields. It is primarily a military airport near Latakia, where runways are being reconstructed, caponiers are being built, air defense systems are deployed and Tanks T90 in the amount of as many as seven pieces and howitzers, which specifically and how many - is not specified. And also one more base is mentioned near the city of Safita, the personnel of which already now totals 250 people.

OFFICIAL APPLICATIONS

US Secretary of State John Kerry was one of the first to respond to the information about “increasing Russian military activity in Syria,” he called the head of the Russian diplomatic department Sergey Lavrov and demanded explanations, received them, but they did not seem to satisfy him. The Russian side does not hide the fact that it supplies weapons to Damascus in accordance with long-concluded contracts. Regarding the introduction of troops was given a negative response. John Kerry said that the increase in arms supplies and the appearance of the Russian military in Syria will inevitably lead to "the death of a large number of civilians, an increase in the flow of refugees and the risk of confrontation with the coalition acting against the Islamic State." The US Secretary of State apparently forgot about the fact that the United States and its allies are supplying weapons to the so-called moderate Syrian opposition, but also chose not to mention the coalition air raids that carry no less danger to the lives of the civilian population. The logic behind the main overseas diplomat is iron: the weapons of Western countries do not kill civilians, they have magic, they kill only bad guys. They don’t want to admit in Washington that they are co-authors of the creation of the “Islamic State”, which in the past two years has become a threat to the world. They also do not recognize the fact that Washington’s desire to overthrow unwanted regimes does not lead to the spread of democracy, but as an alternative to despotism, in fact, offers the people of the third world the chaos of civil wars. As evidenced by the events in Libya, Iraq and Syria.

White House spokesman Joshua Ernest, for starters, allowed himself to speak on this topic in a threatening tone, he voiced irritation of Washington regarding Russia's attempts to pursue an independent policy. He said that the support of Syrian President Bashar Assad will lead Russia to even greater isolation from the world community. Barack Obama said earlier about the policy of his administration in the Middle East and North Africa: "The United States is ready to use all elements of our capabilities, including military force, to ensure our key interests in the region."

PEAKING AT A HIGHER LEVEL

During his speech at the CSTO summit in the Tajik capital, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared his readiness to cooperate with the West in the fight against the IG, but made it clear that this is not possible under any conditions. He said: "I am convinced that it is necessary to resume a substantive discussion on the topic of creating a system of united and indivisible security in the Euro-Atlantic area." The Russian leader also confirmed that he intends, despite the opposition of the coalition, to support Bashar Assad, and announced the readiness of the Syrian President to engage in political communication with the opposition in order to achieve peace.

The head of the Russian state stressed that the main threat to the countries of the Middle East region, as well as to the world, is the “Islamic state” and the entire civilized world should aim at joint struggle with it. At the upcoming UN General Assembly, Vladimir Putin is expected to address the Syrian-Iraq issue and the fight against international terrorism. It is possible that the Russian president will be able to seize the initiative, for a start, at least in the ideological field.

Responding to Vladimir Putin’s speech in Dushanbe, White House spokesman George Ernest said that Washington, of course, would welcome Russia's entry into the already established US coalition to fight ISIS, but would not tolerate an independent game of Moscow in the region. In addition, he recalled that the West does not consider Bashar Assad as a participant in the negotiation process. Barack Obama, in turn, called Russia's support for the Syrian government a big mistake. It is clear that he had in mind, but, fortunately, this phrase was followed by conciliatory steps on the part of Washington. The decisive actions of Moscow related to the support of the Syrian government, somewhat discouraged Washington. Now overseas they guess what the next step of the Russian leadership will be. The West did not dare to open confrontation, as evidenced by the contacts that began between the military departments and the special services of the United States and Russia. The parties generally agree to cooperate in the fight against a common adversary, the Islamic State. The stumbling block is the support by the Russian side of Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose overthrow is a long-established goal for the West.

At the same time, reports began to appear in the Western media that the generals would not miss the opportunity to test new weapons in the present case, in a battle with a strong adversary. Moreover, the territory of this inspection will be limited to the Middle East theater. Even if some types of weapons are clearly weaker than their counterparts, the consequences of these failures will be light. It remains to hope that the possibility of such checks to any one side is not presented.

The activity of the Russian military in the Middle East naturally worries Israel. The recent visit to Moscow of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks with the first person of our state is evidence of this. The Israeli military-political leadership, of course, worries over whose hands the newest weapons that arrive on Russian ships by sea in Syria fall. Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Russia accompanied by the Chief of General Staff and the head of military intelligence. From this we can conclude that the issues of interaction of these two departments with the relevant Russian structures were resolved.


Syrian aviation strikes again
on the positions of the Islamists. Reuters Photos


DAMASK DOES NOT TALK

Syrian President Bashar Assad did not remain in debt to his political opponents. In turn, he accused the West of supporting terrorism, of hypocrisy, of the massive death of the civilian Syrian population and of creating a situation where almost half of the country's population was forced to leave their homes and seek refuge not only in their homeland and neighboring countries, but and over the sea. According to the Syrian leader, the flow of refugees, which has now rushed into Europe, is the result of the short-sighted policy of the West in the Middle East. Bashar Assad also admitted that government forces are too few to hold vast territories, so their task is to defend the most important settlements, industrial conglomerations and the most significant communications.

EASTERN PASSIONS

To understand the situation in the region, it is worthwhile to consider Iraq and Syria as one whole, since the events in these neighboring countries are closely interrelated. And the alignment is as follows. There are real political collective players that have armed forces at their disposal, such as: official Damascus (Bashar Assad), the Shiite government and the Shiite army of Iraq (Baghdad), Kurdistan, Iraqi and Syrian can also be considered in aggregate, the Islamic State, - and There are political players who do not have a real armed support, whose role is already insignificant at the moment, and in the future it is not visible at all. And the circumstances were such that the Arab world and the West support precisely these amorphous opposition groups, which have no support in the form of armed forces. It is primarily about the Syrian National Council (SNS) and the National Coalition of the Syrian revolutionary and opposition forces (NCCRO). Initially it was thought that these two organizations, primarily the NKSRO, were the political wing of the armed insurgent units, conditionally united in a structure called the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

To begin with, there was no hard link between the SSA and the NCRO. The fact is that secular politicians and Christians prevailed among the NKRO and SNS leaders, and the SSA paramilitary forces were staffed mainly from Sunni Arabs. In addition, the free Syrian army itself was never monolithic and consisted of separate autonomous militias. It is not clear why the West called these armed Muslim groups secular, then it suddenly became clear that most of them are subject to Salafi ideology. The commanders of these formations, regardless of the opinion of even their patrons, themselves decided who to join the alliance. Thus, some detachments of the SSA conducted combat operations in alliance with the "Al-Nusra Front," which is recognized in the West as a terrorist organization. Sometimes these groups fought among themselves. In the end, from the SSA left one name. In its place later, some amorphous association of the Supreme Military Council (BBC) arose, which by inertia some media call CCA in the old manner, others use both names at the same time, they write BBC – CCA. It is worth noting that a large number of fighters from the free army went into the fighting units of the "Islamic state". The newly formed Air Force formally included five completely independent so-called fronts, which, in turn, are also not monolithic and consist of many completely independent combat groups.

So, the fronts: "Northern" (operates in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib), "Eastern" - fighting against the IG, aimed at the provinces of Raqqa, Deir-ez-zor, Hasaka, "Western" acts against the troops of Bashar al-Assad in the provinces of Hama, on northeast Latakia, east Tartus, Central (Homs, Rastan), Southern (Damascus, Deraa). The air force as a military structure, in fact, is incapable. It is falling apart into a large number of rebel independent groups, the total number of which now exceeds a thousand.

What is the essence of these formations? Most of them are local Sunni militia, that is, they are tied to a specific locality, and only a small part of them are mobile and only enjoy the temporary support of the local Sunni population. The tactics of these groups are extremely simple: they attack the checkpoints of government forces, using the land version of the firefighters - which are suicide-guided vehicles filled with explosives. Moreover, their thrust is unclear, which will certainly attack the checkpoint, which can be bypassed without loss. Then, by some forces, as a rule, not very large rebels — from a dozen, to a couple of hundreds, or a maximum of three hundred — attack various objects that are being defended by government forces or other hostile rebel groups, while the parties have minor losses. There is an action on squeezing the enemy and the seizure of territories. And it's not the humanism of the parties. Proof of this is the fact that no one is ceremonious with the prisoners.

The armed opposition, naturally, is not able to organize any large-scale offensive, since for the most part it is focused on the protection of a certain area, and the majority of the militants do not target away from their homes. Those who are ready to go with fire and sword throughout Syrian territory are not many among the rebels, and these are mostly foreigners. So it turns out that in Syria, the West and the countries of the Persian Gulf support not a consolidating political force, but some unorganized together chaotic multi-fractional military movement and some political substance torn off from this movement in the person of NCCRO, SNS and others like them.

ALAVITS

Let's talk about real political players in the region. First of all, this is Bashar Asad, the Alawite community stands behind him (about 20% of the country's population), he has an Alawite army, he is supported by a part of the Christian population, respectively, representatives of Arab Christian and Armenians are fighting in the government armed forces or militias that interact with these forces. The Syrian president can count on the loyalty of the militants of the Shiite Lebanese organization Hezbollah and volunteers from Iran. The number of government forces, both regular and irregular, by military experts in the West is estimated at 170 – 180 thousand bayonets, of which no more than 50 thousand make up the most effective base.

Apart from the shortage of human resources, government forces are currently lacking armaments and ammunition, partly due to the increase of military supplies to Syria by Russia and Iran. Bashar Assad failed to attract the Circassians and most of the Druze, by the way, they both receive considerable support from Israel. But as a military force, Circassians and Druze can hardly be useful both to the Syrian government and the opposition, the militia of these two ethnic groups is aimed only at defending their densely populated areas. In general, given the possible military assistance from Russia and Iran, the Syrian president can only count on the human resources he has.

According to Western analysts, in sum, the entire disparate Syrian opposition, excluding the army of the Islamic State, has, according to one estimate, about 100 thousand fighters, on the other - their aggregate number surpasses 300 thousand. But not in the number of the enemy problem. The armed Syrian opposition is divided, so we need to beat them in parts, not to defend the objects scattered throughout the country, dispersing forces, but to attack, concentrating their troops at the right time, in the right place, destroying one group of rebels after another. Government troops and military leaders, their leaders, must show a steady will to win, activity, vigor, each time consistently seek either destruction or surrender of the enemy.

Once again, it is necessary to say about the possible Russian military assistance to President Asad, since Russia, unlike the West, supports real political power in the region. If you believe the latest information, the number of our military in the provinces of Tartus and Lattakia brought to 1,7 thousand. These forces are sufficient only for the defense of their military facilities, nothing more. The appearance of Russian military aviation in Syria is widely discussed on the Internet, but this fact is unlikely to contribute to a fundamental change in the course of events in the region. Russia will be able to help Bashar Assad defend, say, the same Latakia and Tartus, but the Syrian government must wage a war for the integrity of the entire country. Between the coastal (Alawite) provinces where the Russian bases are located, and the territories of the Islamic State are settlements occupied by numerous armed formations of the so-called Syrian opposition - in fact, local militia. Russian aviation, located on the airfields of Latakia, is aimed primarily against the IG. By the way, the situation now is such that it’s already late to talk about the territorial integrity of both Syria and Iraq.

Kurds

The next serious political and military force in the region are the Kurds, which, oddly enough, are consolidated by enemies (including not only IS, but also Turkey, the Syrian opposition and in the likely future the Syrian government forces). The possibility of the unification of Iraqi and Syrian Kurds for a long time no one disputes, in fact, this issue has already been resolved. Moreover, among the Kurds there are Sunnis, and Shiites, and non-Muslims - Yezidis and others, but this does not prevent them from waging a defensive war sufficiently united, as a result of which, perhaps, a Kurdish independent state will arise. The total number of Kurdish militia in Syria and Iraq is estimated at 40 – 45 thousand bayonets, and this is a serious force, especially considering their exceptional motivation. With regard to the Kurds, the coalition behaves quite ambiguously, Western countries support them, the states of the Persian Gulf show hostility, and Turkey openly fights with them.

SHIIT GOVERNMENT IN BAGDAD

The Shiite government in Baghdad and the Shiite army also represent a real force in the region, but this force is not seeking to achieve the integrity of Iraq within its former borders. Shiite troops do not seek to attack deep into the territories inhabited by Sunni Arab tribes. In addition, the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf are clearly hostile towards Baghdad, which means that the IS receive support from them. And despite the fact that lately Iraq received the latest weapons from the financial support of the West and Iran, there has been little military success. Only Russia delivered to Baghdad heavy flame-throwing systems TOS-A1 “Solntsek”, attack helicopters Mi-35М and Mi-28НЭ and other military equipment and weapons.

AND ONE MORE PLAYER

The “Islamic State” is undoubtedly one of the strongest political players in the region, with real military power. But it has also recently shown some changes in its rhetoric and military activity. As for the latter, we can say for sure: the offensive impulse of the IG has noticeably weakened, while the rhetoric of the leaders of this political group has become less radical. The desire for world domination, it seems, they gradually fade into the background, and the primary task is to retain the achieved results. In connection with the increase of the Russian military activity in the region, the problems of the IS in the near future will increase considerably. But while there is an influx of volunteers, funding and weapons, the Islamic State has a chance to defend itself, but not to attack. In the internal structure of the IG, changes are also visible, the top of the state has noticeably moved away from the openly Salafi ideology and is now in favor of a “pure”, original Islam (it is clear that they put a completely modern version of its interpretation into the word “original”). What caused such changes? The structure itself, or, better to say, the IS organization, relies on armed formations numbering about 80 thousand fighters. In the vast territories that the Islamists hold, they must interact with the local Arab Sunni tribes, which means that the rulers of the Islamic State are forced to be flexible and take into account the opinion of the heads of these tribes. Former military personnel of the army of the deposed dictator Saddam Hussein, former members of the Ba'ath Party, who, like the sheikhs of local tribes, do not need world domination, have their own distinct local goals and needs. The Sufi order, the Naqshbandiya terikat, has a significant influence on the ideology of the IG. Moreover, Sufis and armed formations that are under their control have a certain degree of independence and only interact with the IS.

HORRIBLE FAIL

The US-led military coalition is rather sluggish in carrying out its main stated mission - the war against the “Islamic State”. So far, the whole essence of this war has come down to arming, training and military consultations of the so-called good Syrian opposition, the Shiite army of Iraq, the Kurdish militia. Moreover, Western assistance to the Kurds and Baghdad does not meet with understanding among the Sunni countries of the Middle East region, the US allies. First of all, we are talking about Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, which makes a considerable split in the actions of the coalition as a whole. An additional irritating factor for the coalition is the cooperation of Baghdad and Damascus.

The most interesting thing is that over time, the active members of the coalition become more and more, but it does not give a noticeable result. Canada, Australia, France, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia joined the actions of aviation, intelligence, special forces of the United States and Great Britain. In total, 60 states are involved to some extent. But the “Islamic State” for some reason still lives and flourishes.

The coalition is also unable to fulfill the second, no less ambitious task aimed at overthrowing Bashar Assad, moreover, in the West there are already arguments about possible cooperation with him, at least for a certain period, until the IG is defeated.

Recently, the US Senate heard a report on the work of its military department in training soldiers for the Syrian opposition. During the year of training camps in Jordan, half a billion dollars were spent, and as a result, now, according to the Pentagon itself, no more than five militants (instead of the planned 15 thousand) trained by US military instructors are fighting against the Assad troops. Irreconcilable Russophobe Senator John McCain called Washington's activities in Syria a terrible failure. Taking into account the current situation, the overseas special services and the military are going to urgently change the principles of working with the opposition. The stake will continue to be placed on the in-depth training of a small number of fighters who will act only in the interests of the coalition. Their main task will be target designation and adjustment of allied aviation strikes. The first group of 75 such fighters have already entered Syria from Turkey. But the trouble is: the very idea of ​​a war from the air without a ground invasion clearly does not justify itself. Each of the reports on the conduct of massed air strikes is accompanied by very modest figures of losses from the IG (or Al-Nusra Front). Hence the West’s dual perception of information about the activities of the Russian military in Syria. On the one hand, there is a danger that at some stage coalition planes or fighters of that part of the Syrian opposition, which the coalition supports, will be in contact with the Russians. On the other hand, everyone clearly understands that the Russian participation in the fight against the IS can benefit the coalition. And Western leaders are tempted to draw the Russian armed forces into this meat grinder. And the most successful option for them is the Russian land invasion. According to many Western military analysts, this option is almost win-win for the coalition. Military operations in Syria (and Iraq) are taking place in densely populated areas and along roads. The main problem is precisely the densely populated areas. And the whole calculation is that the Russian troops supporting Bashar Assad will, of course, be asked to fight against the Sunni Arabs on their lands, whose militia enjoys the support of the local population. The consequences of such hostilities, as practice shows (for example, the war in Afghanistan of 1979 – 1989), can be very destructive for the interventionists. Of course, the Sunni states of the region will support the co-religionists. And one more important fact that cannot be ignored: the overwhelming majority of Russian Muslims are Sunnis, and unpredictable problems may arise on this basis. Hence the conclusion: Russian military participation in the events of the Middle East should be carried out with extreme caution. "East is a delicate matter. Rush? No! ”Helping Bashar Assad to defend the Alawite provinces, to create a reliable rear and uninterrupted military supply of the Syrian government forces, to carry out their support from the air is one thing. And getting into a fight, where the local population will be your opponent, this, excuse me, is quite another thing, from this, undoubtedly, it is necessary to disown. In the end, only the state is worthy of existence, which can do this on its own, without the support of foreign troops. So let Bashar Asad and his generals themselves show what part of Syria they are able to regain control of. The task of the Russian troops is not to allow the West to interfere in this process unconstructively, and this is more likely not a military task, but a political one. As for the fight against the "Islamic State", here too, you should not wave thoughtlessly with a sword, you don’t have to climb on the rampage, if only because this whole epic looks like a skillfully set trap.

WHAT IS THERE, AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

One of the possible outcomes of this long and bloody war, according to many leading Orientalists, is the division of the total territory of Syria and Iraq into several states. Shiite state in southern Iraq, including Baghdad. The Sunni state can settle in the densely populated areas of Sunni Arabs in present-day Iraq and Syria. The Alawite state, which will include the maritime provinces and the western lands of Syria, possibly including Damascus. Kurdistan - the north of Iraq and northeastern Syria, that is, the territories that are now controlled by the Kurdish militia. And, perhaps, the country of the Druze, to which the Circassians can join. Of course, such a division of territories is easy to accomplish on paper; it is actually more difficult to do this. Too many stakeholders are involved in the process. If we take into account the irreconcilable position of the Sunni Middle Eastern monarchies and Tehran, then we can assume that the parties will not be able to reach an agreement for a long time. The situation is aggravated by the fact that many different-sized settlements of Shiites, Sunnis, and representatives of other faiths are interspersed, therefore, before drawing the line between them, it is necessary to resolve a lot of unsolvable contradictions. It is also not clear what political forces each of the newly formed states will represent. Now, none of the formations included in the aggregate concept of the “Syrian opposition” and the West do not consider the possibility of conducting negotiations with the participation of Bashar al-Assad. The same "non-negotiating", for example, is the "Islamic State". Perhaps time will change this situation. The conclusion suggests one thing: in the foreseeable future, the parties will decide by military means who in the end will be worthy of becoming a party to the peace negotiations on the division of territories.
Author:
Originator:
http://nvo.ng.ru/wars/2015-09-25/1_sharkovsky.html
43 comments
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  1. zurbagan63
    zurbagan63 27 September 2015 05: 56
    +2
    Rhetorical question! And what is there at the end of the tunnel? What's over the horizon? I think sometimes my heart contracts. Alarming ...
    1. oleg-gr
      oleg-gr 27 September 2015 09: 02
      +1
      An attempt to divide the BV states into many small enclaves has not been stopped. Americans need to be helped switch to more important things.
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 27 September 2015 09: 10
        0
        Quote: oleg-gr
        An attempt to divide the BV states into many small enclaves has not been stopped.

        By whom? When?
      2. WKS
        WKS 27 September 2015 12: 07
        +1
        Quote: oleg-gr
        An attempt to divide the BV states into many small enclaves has not been stopped. Americans need to be helped switch to more important things.

        But has the attempt to split Russia into enclaves already been stopped? For the United States, this is task number 1, and BV is a dessert.
    2. 222222
      222222 27 September 2015 12: 47
      +4
      "" "Today, the whole world - and this is not an exaggeration! - is waiting for the speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the UN. Not Obama - namely Putin! This is what is called a Great Power.

      A few thoughts out loud:
      1. Obama has no information about Putin’s exact plan of action in Syria, so Washington is nervous, being in limbo.
      2. The strongest trump card in Russia is the possibility of creating a military air and naval base in Latakia and Tartus, respectively. USA are nervous!
      3. Obama's confirmed intention to meet with Putin is evidence of the strong negotiating position of the Russian Federation on Syria.
      4. The CIA reported to Obama that US intelligence does not have accurate information on how the Russian Federation will act against ISIS, only possible options.
      5. By the way, in recent weeks there has been an increased activity of the CIA officers, who use not the diplomatic, but the so-called. "deep cover".
      6. Which is better: to fight ISIS in the Middle East or wait for them to come to Russia?
      7. I won’t be surprised if I see guys from Ramzan on the side of Assad.
      8. People who are fighting with the passports of the Russian Federation on the side of ISIS should not come back to us - and for this absolutely all means will be good.
      9. A kick in the ass .... at the meeting between Putin and Obama, Syria will be discussed, and "if there is time, then also Ukraine." .... (War diary of Igor Korotchenko
      http://i-korotchenko.livejournal.com/1171508.html
  2. Vyacheslav73
    Vyacheslav73 27 September 2015 06: 13
    +4
    It’s not entirely clear why the role of Iran is practically not disclosed in the article? I would like to hear the opinions of experts and not only ... hi
    1. captain
      captain 27 September 2015 11: 48
      0
      I think that they will divide Syria and Iraq into several states. Too often, politicians began to talk about it, everything goes to this.
  3. Barakuda
    Barakuda 27 September 2015 06: 25
    +9
    You need to fly and "see" yourself. I was almost agitated, they told me everything intelligibly, they gave me addresses and telephone numbers ... I mean, for Assad. wink The family is gone, the children are far away. there is nothing to lose. Built a house, planted a tree ..
    1. Pavel Vereshchagin
      Pavel Vereshchagin 27 September 2015 08: 13
      +2
      Good luck I would also like to go, but age does not allow unfortunately.
    2. BDRM 667
      BDRM 667 27 September 2015 09: 55
      -8
      Quote: Barracuda
      You need to fly and "see" yourself. I was almost agitated, they told me everything intelligibly, they gave me addresses and telephone numbers .. I mean, for Assad. I’ll teach arabsky .. wink The family is gone, the children are far away. nothing to lose. He built a house, planted a tree ..


      And for your Fatherland, for the expulsion of the Nazis, that, the Khokhlatsk mercantile spirit, does not allow you to fight?

      Bubble, they promised you in the BV ... So you, activist, tomorrow, behind grandmothers, you will run to AN-NUSRU and ISIS, a corrupt internally ...

      You are right in one thing, such as you, there is nothing to lose, including CONSCIENCE.
      1. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 27 September 2015 10: 20
        +3
        Or maybe a person does not want to fight with his own? Civil war is when brother to brother .. Krasava Barracuda good luck to you, good
        1. afdjhbn67
          afdjhbn67 27 September 2015 10: 42
          +1
          you are evil, I’ll leave you .. laughing
      2. Barakuda
        Barakuda 27 September 2015 11: 05
        +9
        Before reproaching and cursing, first it's time to get to know each other. And understand why. Everything is here for Donbass, though half then ticks home who comes. So let's be without emotion, please.
        You think you can sit out, so the creeping war is already on the borders with Russia, who will stop them? and why not there? And the grandmother has nothing to do with it. I don’t care, havchik, I have a form, wash, shave, I can find a woman myself, I screw a little in Arabic, I don’t need anything else. I was in Tripoli, in Saudi Arabia, but not in Syria.
      3. Asadullah
        Asadullah 27 September 2015 22: 29
        0
        Grandma, they promised you on BV ..


        Where so promise so, enlighten? In the IG? So you need to take hijra, grow a beard of a certain length. Only now it seems to me that I still have to fight for free.

        Another point, you need to apologize to the person ... when you sober up.
    3. Lelek
      Lelek 27 September 2015 10: 06
      -5
      Quote: Barracuda
      You need to fly and "see" yourself.



      Feather in the ass and "vElcom". Be careful not to lose your gaze along with your thought. bully
  4. DMB-75
    DMB-75 27 September 2015 06: 42
    +3
    The creation of a coalition of Russia, China, Iran, Iraq is the right direction for stabilizing the WORLD in the east, and let the states with the geyropa bring order and talerasts from the beginning.
  5. Sergey Sitnikov
    Sergey Sitnikov 27 September 2015 06: 47
    +6
    Great analysis, thanks to the author!
    Yes,))) I almost reread my diploma as a large-scale work of Alexander.
    1. Barakuda
      Barakuda 27 September 2015 07: 00
      0
      The analysis is excellent! I remembered my diploma on five pages, and a 120-page report. Microprocessor control system of the thyristor electric drive. winked Even from representatives of the Kievpribor, Korolev, Lepse factories I received a special thank you, they called me to me.
      1. bugaev2005
        bugaev2005 27 September 2015 08: 52
        11
        And then employers saw that you write the word thyristor through E and changed your mind about hiring such a specialist ... smile
      2. Sergey Sitnikov
        Sergey Sitnikov 27 September 2015 10: 08
        +1
        I have a diploma - Peculiarities of considering cases in courts of defense of honor, dignity and business reputation of legal entities.
        Such a narrow topic)))) you see, even among lawyers there is no honor and dignity!
  6. dmi.pris
    dmi.pris 27 September 2015 06: 52
    0
    What’s at the end of the tunnel? And all or nothing, victory or death as you like .. There is nowhere to retreat, only forward .. there will be a lot of howling at the fenders and the like ... But any who howles the TAIL was howled.
  7. slizhov
    slizhov 27 September 2015 07: 01
    +3
    No need for the French and everyone else to take us on the show.
    They again provoke that the blood of the Russians will be shed again.
    It should not be. Only weapons, only specialists, in the end, if it’s somewhere on land, then lightning fast and without loss. And this should be done only by high-level professionals, similar to those who captured Amin’s palace ...
  8. Andryukha G
    Andryukha G 27 September 2015 07: 21
    +4
    Yes, now in Syria and Bashar Assad has his own Stalingrad, it’s good that the Russian leadership understands this perfectly (as they say, in the subject) and does not act as an indifferent observer, as in the cases of Yugoslavia, Libya and Iraq.
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 27 September 2015 09: 26
      +2
      Quote: Andryukha G
      The Russian leadership understands this perfectly (as they say, in the subject) and does not act as an indifferent observer, as in the cases of Yugoslavia, Libya and Iraq.

      This is because the LEADERSHIP has changed. By the way, it (our current leadership) got a bone in the throat at the Pale House. That is why the pallid and allotted 18 billion greens of our "opposition" for the presidential elections. This is where the real internal threat lies for us.
      1. Kos_kalinki9
        Kos_kalinki9 27 September 2015 09: 36
        +1
        Quote: BoA KAA
        That is why the pallid and allotted 18 billion greens of our "opposition" for the presidential elections. This is where the real internal threat lies for us.

        Where does infa come from, if not a secret? Only now I cannot understand under whom these 18 lard of cabbage are allocated. Under the bulk? So he, together with his "party" in Kostroma flew to the regional recently. Most likely (IMHO) under the Duma elections. More logical.
  9. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 27 September 2015 07: 47
    +2
    Initially, assumptions were published that Russia was preparing to send ground troops into Syria

    They so long for this that they began to run ahead of the engine, thereby (by their own stupidity) openly confirming the plans of the West. After all, Ukraine did not succeed in dragging Russia into this, why not try here. Honestly, Washington’s policies over the past few years have become very predictable. Constantly use old cliches, which at one time can and gave a positive result.
  10. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 27 September 2015 08: 42
    +1
    Yes, the Americans "coolly kneaded" in the East, but the main thing is not to allow Russia to be dragged into this "mess" (and this seems to be the main task of the whole adventure ")! After all, how well it would have turned out if Russia had brought its troops into Syria: after a while time the United States and its allies would "scale back" their operation and please Russia is exposed as the aggressor, and it is not necessary for anyone to figure out who and why all this started, as in the case of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, (uncle shook a test tube in the Security Council and everyone sang in chorus under "tune")!
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. Aleksandr72
    Aleksandr72 27 September 2015 09: 40
    +1
    The Israeli military-political leadership, of course, is worried about whose hands will fall on the latest weapons that arrive on Russian sides by sea to Syria.

    So, so that no one ever worries that the latest Russian weapons did not fall into the mischievous mischievous hands of Russia will have to:
    firstly, to train Syrian warriors to fight with this very weapon in the present way,
    secondly, to use all the methods and means available in the arsenal of the Russian leadership and diplomats in order to eliminate the international isolation of the ruling Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad (and this is the most difficult, this political leader is painful for many, may Allah give him health and long life, beloved squeezed corns)
    thirdly, use all possible and affordable means to engage any possible allies in the war against Assad’s enemies, the same Iran and China, for example.
    I believe that Russia should beware of direct participation of the Russian army in the war with ISIS. Islamic radicals may well play this card under the pretext of a holy war with the infidels (especially with the informational support of their high patron because of the Big Puddle - the Atlantic, that is). But no one interferes with the participation in the war on the side of the legitimate Syrian government of all kinds of "volunteers" - and now they can and must be provided with everything necessary. In any case, ISIS should be stopped right now, before their appetites and opportunities grow, far from our borders.
    I have the honor.
  13. Boa kaa
    Boa kaa 27 September 2015 10: 00
    +9
    A good balanced article. I liked the "+".
    A few words on the topic.
    It is very gratifying that Putin let the pale-faced "crap", who showed their inability (unwillingness!) To solve the IS problem.
    Now we have the initiative. The visit of the Israeli Prime Minister to Moscow is a confirmation of this. And the fact that under the auspices of the Russian Federation a consultative analytical center has been created (RF, SAR, Iran and Iraq), which will analyze the situation in the region and inform the General Headquarters of its countries about its findings, says a lot. I think intelligence and the military agreed with Israel during the visit of Natanyahu.
    Second. The United States is intimidating us with a second Afghan, although they themselves found themselves (afraid to end up) in a second Vietnam. Hence their throwing. But they really want us to get into Syria with a ground operation. Then the "Sunni brothers" in Russia can be roused to fight the "bloody Putin regime". And when there is a fire in your house, there is no time for neighbor showdowns! Again, elections ...
    Thirdly. States have already lost: we are back on the BEACH The Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, we have become more pragmatic with regard to Israel, Cyprus, Egypt, Algeria.
    Fourth. The States, by supporting the Kurds (which is not bad), are themselves digging a ditch between Turkey and the Allies. Erdagan came to us for the opening of a cathedral mosque in Moscow. Surely this issue was aired in a conversation with VVP. Judging by the "satisfaction", we will not get into this showdown. We'd better "put" the Turks on the oil needle. Which is also good.
    Generally speakingif there is a redistribution of the borders of the existing states and the creation of new ones according to the ethno-religious principle, then it will be that mess! Wars for the liberation of the tomb of the Lord against this background can fade!
    (Lord save Russia!) IMHO.
  14. Ruslan05dg
    Ruslan05dg 27 September 2015 10: 00
    -5
    In Iraq, the majority of the Sunni population is in Syria as well. And in the government all posts are held by Shiites here and there, however, it is not fair, and it is not right to support only Shiites. Sunites hold on!
    1. olimpiada15
      olimpiada15 27 September 2015 11: 00
      +5
      Not Shiite Sunnis should be supported, but the brains of the imams should not be smoothed out - it was they who should set up their flock that all people should live in peace, regardless of religion.
      The supreme deity is the mind, and religion is the path to the mind, i.e. to the knowledge of the world, truth, the essence of life, the strengthening of spirituality. Many paths always lead to the same goal, therefore different religions and movements cannot be opposed, that is what religious leaders should teach. Those who do not do this are obscurantists who hide behind religion and do not follow its canons.
      Pay attention to the Kurds, in this article, there are many religions and all together. Or during the week I watched a video about the Syrians, the same thing, they live nearby, neighbors are of different nationalities and religions and dream of one thing, so that peace comes.
      Reason always requires peace, not war. And there is nothing to cover up dirty matters with religion.
      1. Ruslan05dg
        Ruslan05dg 27 September 2015 19: 48
        -1
        That's just the point, in Syria, Shiites began to impose their faith on the Sunnis, insult, throw pigs' heads at the Sunni mosques, stifle the rights of the Sunnis, that’s how it all started, and that's why the Sunni brothers come to them to help them . Everyone is talking about the cruelty of the Sunnis, although Shiites have vividly buried people in the ground, they just rarely remove it and hide it. And militants shoot executions on video in order to frighten the enemy and they succeed. (Although I do not support all these executions)
        1. Asadullah
          Asadullah 27 September 2015 22: 34
          0
          Shiites began to impose their faith on the Sunnis,


          I don’t understand, are you trolling, or is everything so serious?
    2. anti-Semite
      anti-Semite 27 September 2015 14: 00
      0
      who said that? in Iraq, the majority of Shiites who were oppressed by the Sunnis under Saddam are similar in Bahrain where the Sunites with the help of the Saudi army crush the Shiite majority
    3. Kos_kalinki9
      Kos_kalinki9 27 September 2015 19: 48
      0
      ISIS preaches Islam of the Sunni persuasion. Assad-Alavite. Alavites-Shia sect. Kurds are Sunnis. Here is such a vinaigrette. And now the Kurds (Sunites), together with the troops of the Alawites (Shiites) and Christians and with the support of the IRGC (also Shiites) are fighting with ISIS (Sunnis). So which Sunnis hold on? Which are Kurds or ISIS. Until the Americans put their nose in the BV, everything was calm there. And YOU are Sunni, Shiites, Alawites, Christians. ISHILI Heads cut off. What does faith have to do with it?
  15. olimpiada15
    olimpiada15 27 September 2015 10: 03
    +3
    The state hypocrisy towards Syria is just going wild.
    The list of major US crimes looks like this:
    1) Intervention in the internal affairs of a sovereign state by training militants to conduct military operations against government forces
    2) Neglect of the rights of citizens of Syria, including the conduct of hostilities to overthrow the ruling regime, while violating the right to life of citizens of Syria
    3) Obstruction of the state functions of the government to protect the state and its citizens by the introduction of a ban on shelling gangs trained by the states.
    And most importantly:
    the purpose of the intervention is to destroy the state,
    since the Assad government is opposed by an unformed opposition formation from the majority of the country's citizens,
    and a bunch of armed and trained by other countries gangs from citizens of different countries, i.e.
    here it is not a question of confronting the government with part of the country's citizens, but there is an intervention of world terrorism, which the states support and announce the legitimate opposition.
    Those. to remove the Assad’s government is to make way for a gathering of gangs of various kinds who are unable to form a new government together or separately, which means the elimination of statehood.
    The actual role of the United States is to support terrorists in order to eliminate the state of Syria.
    Russia understands this, and Western politicians, either mentally retarded or not capable, but in any case demonstrate an inability and unwillingness to understand that their position is a violation of all conceivable and inconceivable international rules in relation to the state of Syria.
    I emphasize that in relation to the state of Syria, and not to the Assad government, Western countries demonstrate a violation of international rules.
  16. sl22277
    sl22277 27 September 2015 10: 27
    +1
    Only an offensive strategy will suppress the IG. It is too early to divide Syria in which there is a legitimate government. Only the complete destruction of the Islamists is the first priority, and then the reorganization of state structures.
  17. Asadullah
    Asadullah 27 September 2015 11: 28
    0
    A significant influence on the ideology of the Islamic State is exerted by the Sufi order - the Nakshbandiya terikat. Moreover, Sufis and armed groups that are under their control have a certain degree of independence and only interact with the Islamic State.


    1. Asadullah
      Asadullah 27 September 2015 13: 21
      +2
      Pancake! the text disappeared somewhere ....

      belay Sufis are fighting? !!! Where does this information come from? It sounds like an assault battalion of Indian yogis. Unlike other tariqas, white-cap protesters do not reject contacts with worldly authorities, but they can’t influence the military in any way; this generally contradicts the Naqshbandi suluk. The same thing if an Orthodox monk moonlights in the evenings as an executioner. Moreover, the ideology of the IG suggests that the Sufis slaughter everyone indiscriminately. Which they sometimes do. The fact is that in many towns Sufis are considered to be local blessed, that is why they are not touched at this stage.
      1. padded jacket
        padded jacket 27 September 2015 14: 14
        +1
        The only alternative to chaos and the spread of banditry is the creation of a coalition of all the healthy forces of the region, in particular Syria - Iraq - Iran - Hezbollah and of course Russia, but it will be very good if China or India from the countries of South America and Africa join it.
        Cope with terrorism "grown" by the United States, Israel and the Wahhabis who seem to have lost control over it, otherwise it simply will not work.
        1. padded jacket
          padded jacket 27 September 2015 14: 19
          0
          By the way, cooperation with Iran and lifting Western sanctions from it brings undoubted results in particular for our industry:
          Iran will acquire equipment and aircraft from Russia for $ 21 billion
          Tehran and Moscow have entered into a series of contracts for the supply of Iran with Russian aerospace equipment in the amount of $ 21 billion. This was stated in an interview with Sputnik by the head of the Iranian National Space Center Manushehr Manteki.
          According to him, the agreements were signed "on the sidelines" of the MAKS-2015 air show, which was held in late August in Zhukovsky near Moscow. Under one of the contracts, Iran will buy from Russia a batch of Sukhoi Superjet 100 aircraft, but the number of acquired Manteki aircraft has not been specified.
          http://www.ng.ru/news/518540.html
          1. padded jacket
            padded jacket 27 September 2015 14: 52
            +1
            So by the way, yesterday a shell / rocket from Syria "fell" on the territory of Israel
            On Saturday, September 26, around six o'clock in the evening in the north of the Golan Heights a shell, allegedly fired from Syria, fell.
            http://9tv.co.il/news/2015/09/26/213892.html
            Israel did not answer this, as it always does, striking at the Syrian Arab Army - fears lol
            1. padded jacket
              padded jacket 27 September 2015 15: 18
              0
              On the development of the situation around Syria:
              Putin: Turkey and the United States are aware of the creation of a structure to combat IS
              Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he personally informed the heads of Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia about the creation of a coordinating structure to fight the "Islamic State", the United States was also informed about this.
              http://ria.ru/world/20150927/1285221959.html
              Putin: Russia provides military assistance to Syria under legal contracts
              Russia provides military-technical assistance to the legitimate government of Syria at their request based on the principles of international law and legal contracts, said Russian President Vladimir Putin.
              http://ria.ru/world/20150927/1285216449.html


              Syrian Air Force destroyed IS headquarters in Latakia
              Aircraft launched rocket attacks on the headquarters of the Junood Kaukaz in El Raud. 38 terrorists were killed, ”RIA Novosti quoted the military representative as saying.
              http://russian.rt.com/article/119349
              1. padded jacket
                padded jacket 27 September 2015 15: 39
                0
                "Syrian Express" BDK "Saratov" again went to Syria, filled to capacity, even the entire deck is packed, however, they are in this form and have been going there lately:

  18. am808s
    am808s 27 September 2015 11: 59
    0
    Something everyone advocates for the destruction, but it is impossible to take away weapons and render harmless idiologists?
    1. Asadullah
      Asadullah 27 September 2015 17: 35
      +1
      and it’s impossible to deprive weapons and render harmless idiologists?


      You offer a black man to lynch?
  19. KnightRider
    KnightRider 27 September 2015 17: 58
    0
    My view on Russia's actions in the Middle East:
    Russia has become seriously involved in the Middle East question.
    Over the past few months, a lot of preparatory work has been carried out: diplomatic, military, intelligence.
    A few weeks ago, the transition to the next stage.
    Russia has strengthened military-technical assistance to Syria:
    volumes of military cargo increased, the range of supplies supplied by the Syrian army to airborne forces expanded.
    Russia has increased its direct presence in the UAR:
    military advisers, instructors, technical specialists; intelligence service; Air Force Air Force; Marines and other combat units; special forces units.
    What may be further actions of the Russian Federation we will find out very soon. Based on the opinions of experts, the presence of a military group in Syria, the creation of a military expert and analytical center with the participation of the Russian Federation, SAR, Iran, Iraq in Baghdad, it is possible to be involved in a direct fight with Igil. But Russia's participation will be limited to:
    -the provision of military-technical assistance to its partners
    -all types of intelligence
    -Air support by air
    -protection and defense of the most important facilities with Russian personnel and equipment
    -interaction, exchange of information with allies and partners in the fight against Ishil
    -Possible conduct by special forces (such as the Special Forces, the GRU) "pinpoint" special operations, for example, the release of hostages, the elimination of the leaders of bandit groups. But this is classified as "secret" and we will not know anything.
  20. Oleko
    Oleko 27 September 2015 22: 17
    0
    "Now overseas they are at a loss as to what the next step of the Russian leadership will be."
    And what is intelligence for? So as not to be lost in conjectures, but to know the intentions of the enemy, that is, us. CIA free bread, dismissed "Smoked" scouts. Neither the analytical nor the undercover say anything (the CIA has no illegal immigrants in Russia, as far as I know, it may not be right) or the FSB is leaking misinformation through established channels.
  21. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 28 September 2015 08: 01
    0
    But hasn't the time come to send the minke whales to the buoy and completely ignore their howl?
    Say, "none of your business"!
    It would be logical.