Military Review

Sunset "Caliphate"

It is no secret to anyone that the so-called “caliphate”, the creation of which was proclaimed by a previously unknown Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Samarrai, who spent the last years of his life in the United States and is now better known under the pseudonym Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi , is nothing more than a very well-built project, originally designed to replace the existing state system in Syria.

After al-Baghdadi, in 2013, in an amazing and not at all Shari'i way, he appointed himself a “caliph” and called on all the faithful to make hijra (resettlement) in territories controlled by the caliphate, it seemed that his pseudo-state had a long-term perspective. Al-Baghdadi’s call was reportedly answered by over 45 of thousands of Muslims living throughout the world, from the United States and Europe to Nigeria. As of 2014, the “caliphate” of ISIS occupied an area of ​​over 30 thousand square kilometers, which is the territory of Belgium, and, according to some estimates, its size reached the area of ​​Great Britain. On the lands of the “caliphate” 8 millions of people were living. At the same time, the security of the “caliphate” is ensured by battle-hardened and numerous militants, basically newcomers, capable of successfully fighting regular armies. At the same time, the main population, with the exception of 45 thousands of new arrivals, is made up of local residents.

It would be a mistake to assume that the terrorist group of ISIL consists entirely of militant sadists and psychopaths enjoying the monstrous pictures of mass executions, incineration, beheadings and the slave trade. Of course, they exist, and there are many of them, but they constitute the lower level and are used mainly to maintain the obedience of the population and intimidate opponents. But in general, the device of the “caliphate”, thanks to the effective management of al-Baghdadi, has acquired quite state outlines: it has created state institutions of power, police, legal proceedings based on interpretations of Sharia and maintaining order with blood-chilling punishments. It even provides social guarantees, education (albeit exclusively theological) and support for immigrants, moreover, at the expense of the tax system created in it.

This is the main difference between ISIS and its al-Qaeda antagonist. While al-Qaeda prefers shady activities, creating secret cells in different countries and conducting secret negotiations with its supporters, ISIL performs in advertising and flashy style, presenting any, even slight success, as an indicator of strengthening its power and statehood.

For example, the actual merging of al-Qaida with the Taliban, which undoubtedly strengthened both already powerful groups, was almost imperceptible. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, as a representative of the old terrorist school, confined himself only to distributing his audio oath to the Taliban leader Mansur Akhtar. At the same time, ISIL widely advertises the oath of militants "Boko Haram" and parts of the Libyan tribal gangs, as well as, albeit much more modestly, the single oath of the leaders of the almost destroyed militants of the North Caucasian gang underground.

In fairness, it should be noted that at the initial stage, al-Qaida operated on similar scenes of violence and horrible executions; it suffices to recall the activities of its militants in Iraq after the fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein. However, al Qaeda, unlike LIH, is now trying to "win hearts and minds", while al-Baghdadi, in typical American style, has relied on the external attributes of statehood embodied in his "caliphate." And, of course, he offers people not only horrific cruelties and continuous clashes - the “caliphate” operates with much more peace-loving concepts for its adherents.

In the situation of anarchy and violence prevailing in Syria and Iraq, it is the “caliphate” that offers those who do not accept the secular model of the state (mainly radical Muslims who adhere to the strictly Sharia model) guaranteed security, social security and the satisfaction of basic economic needs, while maintaining any through diligently propagated piety. Of course, many of those who fell under the rule of the "caliphate" have no other choice, but adherents of the Sharia system in matters of vital activity of the "caliphate" are enviable active, inspired by their honorable mission of restoration historical justice of the times of the Righteous Caliphs and seeing in Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi “amira al-muminin”, that is, the true ruler of the faithful.

However, faith alone is not enough to build a state. The necessary economic sources of income, resources, production. And partly ISIS possesses these levers at the expense of seized production assets in the form of Iraqi and Syrian enterprises, dumping trade in oil products, taxes, ransoms for stolen goods, sales of cultural and historical values ​​and, most importantly, through external financing.

Many consider that the sponsors of the “caliphate” of ISIL are directly to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, especially the latter. However, it should be noted that at the state level, not a single dinar in the ISIS piggy bank from these richest countries goes quite the opposite: Riyadh and Doha provided their air bases for the anti-IGIL coalition bombers and even participate in striking militants. The main financial flows go to the “caliphate” exclusively from private individuals, who are a local oligarchy, which is practically uncontrollable by the authorities, but has huge interests in the conflict zone. And until the end of 2014, the flow of funding only increased.

However, in the fall of 2014, the situation changed dramatically. Claims of ISIL have increased immeasurably, primarily due to the same clashes of interests between the Saudi oligarchs and the intentions of Euro-American partners in the region, for whom the extension of the ISIL zone of influence has become a serious threat. The economic losses of Middle Eastern countries from the activities of terrorist groups ranged from 10 to 30 percent of GDP.

Most branches of the economy and social sphere of the Middle Eastern countries depend on Western technological investments (for example, Saudi Arabia uses only Western production equipment in oil production), on external freight traffic, including through the Suez Canal, tourism and leased production resources. Taking these factors out of circulation or being hindered by the activities of ISIL is also significant for other countries using these industries, including those that have no connection to the Middle East region. That is why an intergovernmental coalition was created in 2015 to fight ISIS.

It includes the United States, Great Britain, France, Australia, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey, Iran and Russia also expressed their positive position on countering ISIL. An important part of the coalition’s military composition was formally not part of the Kurds of Syria, Iraq and Turkey.

I would like to note that the “Caliphate” itself, as a pseudo-state entity, inhabited mainly by local residents who had previously lived in these territories, presents practically no threat to the surrounding countries. The danger comes from the numerous fighters who have arrived from other countries and have been combined into maneuverable combat detachments. In fact, the “caliphate” in its full functionality is only where these groups are located. Where they are not, people continue to live their normal lives.

Coalition countries have vast resources. The United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are bombing ISIS positions in Syria, the United Kingdom, France and Australia, supported by the United States, are air strikes in Iraq. Only the United States spends 9 million dollars daily to provide ISIS air strikes.

The “caliphate” also suffers from ground forces. The Shiite group Hezbollah, equipped and trained by Iran, the Sunni people's militia Hashd al-Shaabi, the Iraqi regular army squeeze ISIS to the north of Iraq, where violent clashes of bandit groups with Kurdish militias take place, take part in battles with ISIL militants. And of course, the Syrian army bears the main burden in eliminating the militants.

What did it do? ISIS militants are driven out of the cities of Kobani and Tal Abyad, adjacent to the Turkish border. In Iraq, the “Lions of the Caliphate” are expelled from Tikrit, the hometown of Saddam Hussein, a stronghold of the Sunni community of Iraq and a battery of oil production. True, ISIS continues to hold Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, captured in June 2014, but after 2 months, militants lost control of the keys to the city - water dams that supply water to the city, and government forces continue to compress the ring around Mosul.

Despite the individual tactical successes of ISIL, such as the May seizure of Ramadi in the Iraqi province of Anbar (less than 160 km west of Baghdad) and a monument of architecture, the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra, they have nothing to do. The territory of the “caliphate”, which mainly extends to undeveloped desert and agricultural areas, has now declined by more than a third compared with 2014 year.

At the same time, the ongoing air strikes and battles of local significance with the current intensity, obviously, could not and will not be able to further terminate the existence of the “caliphate”. Although the influx of recruits to ISIL has significantly decreased (by and large, the majority of those who wanted to go to the Caliphate are already in it), and among the militants there is a growing frustration with the futility, corruption, theft and the constant death of comrades, the war in the region will continue at least because it is a seething mass of ethnoreligious communities and terrorist groups at war with each other.

And this situation is not able to reverse any fire strikes of the entire coalition. As a result of these clashes, even despite the cessation of the influx of fighters from the outside, the region itself will increase the number of trained, tempered and past combat experience of armed formations from among the local residents, who in the conditions of devastation and anarchy will inevitably turn into a serious, albeit scattered force. under the flag of the caliphate, a kind of hydra, which, when cutting off one head (ISIS), grows new ones in the form of various "fronts", "jamaats" and "parties".

With seeming antagonism of factions - for example, between ISIS, Jabhat an-Nusroy, Jaish Muhajirin Val Ansar and others, bloody battles take place for influence in certain areas — all of them are at the same time opposed to resolving the situation, in a united front opposing military measures taken West. But even in this case, the “caliphate” is less dangerous than al Qaeda - at least all indicative executions of foreign citizens occur, according to ISIL, “in response to the bombardment”, while al Qaeda does not need pretexts Considering the attacks the main form of offensive war.

We must understand that this is why ISIS, as the brainchild of the United States, was created to overthrow Assad and dismember Syria, is much less dangerous for the United States itself than al-Qaeda. ISIS, in spite of wild acts of sadism and cruelty, does it more to plant the extremely radical branch of Salafism (Wahhabism) among the local population and religious minorities - Christians, Shiites and Yezidis, instilling obedience with fear. For the United States and their partners, this, in principle, does not play any significant role. By the way, unlike Al-Qaeda, ISIS has not carried out (has not yet carried out) a single terrorist attack against the United States and its Western allies, at least, a success.

In this connection, the positions of the US government and its military-political leadership, which abandoned the practice of expanding air strikes, limited themselves to “surgical” selective targets, which were noted even by the Russian Foreign Ministry, expressing bewilderment by American actions, in which, knowing where the major militant formations are, The Pentagon does not hit them. The US is not interested in the rapid and complete destruction of the “caliphate”, knowing full well that the risk of terrorism after its elimination will increase dramatically due to the rampant unregulated gangs and the almost unhindered possibility of transcontinental movement of their members.

Thus, the "uzhaty" caliphate fully meets the interests of the United States as a counterweight to al-Qaeda and the ability to manipulate the activation of ISIS militants in one direction or another, stopping strikes there and turning off for the time being hostilities by the coalition forces.

However, the existence of a caliphate, even in its truncated and regulated form, is quite understandable not in the interests of Syria, as a replacement for which it was created. The enemy at the gate, constantly tormenting a weakened SAR, requires either complete liquidation, on which, in fact, Russia insists, or the cessation of encroachment on its territory, with which the United States, striving to overthrow Assad, does not agree.

This is where the interstate contradiction between Russia and the United States, which led to a surge in anti-Russian hysteria in all Western media. Although the declared goals are the same - fighting terrorism - the emergence of Russian weapons in Syria, destined to destroy ISIL, is negatively perceived by Washington, because it understands - there will be no compromise on the issue of fighting terrorism from Russia, which means US geopolitical interests are in the region under the threat of losing such an effective tool as the “caliphate”.

Nevertheless, the Russian diplomatic corps managed to convince its American counterparts that the appearance of Russian weapons in Syria was not directed against the United States, but intended exclusively to fight terrorism. Today, Secretary of State John Kerry, calling on Moscow and Tehran to help end the civil war lasting more than four years, said that "at the moment, according to our military and experts, the size and type (of Russian weapons in Syria) meet the protection tasks" and added that the US is ready to immediately begin negotiations on a political settlement in Syria. In a similar vein, foreign ministers of Great Britain and Austria also spoke today.

The clear success of Russian diplomacy, testifying to the growing influence of Moscow in the Middle East, does not at all indicate the weakness of the United States. It is not yet known how the next round of talks on the Syrian issue will end, but what Russia will never agree with is the abolition of Syria, and the United States is well aware of this. However, by proclaiming a policy of fighting the “caliphate”, the United States and its allies put themselves within the harsh framework of the need to follow it.

Obviously, the best method is clearly coordinated powerful blows of all sides against ISIL and other terrorist groups that make up the fighting force and cementing the “caliphate”, without which it will disintegrate. Most likely, it is from September that the irrevocable decline of this pseudo-state entity begins, if the West and Russia decide to act in concert and firmly.

If we talk about the military component, then most likely, Russian participation will be aimed at supporting the actions of ground Syrian troops to the borders of Syria, and the Americans and their allies will act similarly from Iraq, ensuring the promotion of the Iraqi army, pro-Iranian troops and Kurds. Egypt will make a contribution, ensuring the liberation of the Sinai Peninsula from the branch of ISIL - Ansar al-Beit Makdis. The rear sweep of the territory of the remaining militants will be carried out by territorial militia units. Of course, the duration of such an operation will stretch for several months due to the large size of the territory and the mobility of terrorist units, but it is feasible subject to the adoption of an agreement on the preservation of the state borders of Syria.

Sunset "Caliphate"

Anyway, the “caliphate” is doomed. He did not fulfill the task entrusted to him, becoming only an advertisement for a hotbed of terrorist threat and a source of instability in the region. So it's time to get rid of him. And al Qaeda, hiding in anticipation of a breakthrough on the free operational space, will come to the fore again.
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  1. venaya
    venaya 26 September 2015 05: 50
    All this game was started with only one goal, the basic one for today, it is the control of the territory for gas and oil pipelines from the Persian Gulf region directly to the European continent, bypassing sea transportation. Another task is not yet visible. These "partners" see only their own benefit in everything, they do not care about the peoples. States will fall apart, new ones will be chopped up.
    1. Eugene-Eugene
      Eugene-Eugene 26 September 2015 08: 09
      There is no other task yet.

      In any geopolitical movement, one should look for two underlying motives - economic and political. Events in the Middle East are not limited to dancing around gas stations. A much more massive political process is taking place - the unification of the region. If earlier the balance between the USA and the USSR "split" the world regions into supporters and opponents of the Soviets / USA, then with the abolition of the Union it turned out that the unipolar system leads to regional centralization. Today, almost all world regions are moving towards internal political unification (CIS, Southeast Asia, Europe, Hindustan, South America is on its way). And if in the post-Soviet space or South-East Asia it is clear who is the leading player, in the Middle East this is far from the case. Peace will come when one of the leading players in the region rises - the Saudis, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Iraq ... or even Israel. While we can say that Syria and Iraq were taken out of the game (for how long?), Egypt was re-entered into the party.
      1. atalef
        atalef 26 September 2015 11: 47
        Quote: Eugene-Eugene
        The east is not limited to dancing around gas stations. A much more massive political process is taking place - the unification of the region

        There is no unification there, and the collapse of the artificially glued states of Syria, Iraq, (followed by Lebanon) - the British and French leaving the BV glued these countries without any consideration of confessional groups - this is the result
        Quote: Eugene-Eugene
        , then with the abolition of the Union it turned out that a unipolar system leads to regional centralization

        The collapse - will be more accurate
        Quote: Eugene-Eugene
        Today, almost all world regions (the CIS, Southeast Asia, Europe, Hindustan, and South America are approaching) are moving toward internal political unification.

        This has nothing to do with either the Arabs or the BV - Arabs are not yet at a level sufficient to understand the benefits of integration - they have more important things now - self-identification within tribal groups
        Quote: Eugene-Eugene
        Peace will come when one of the leading players in this region rises - the Saudis, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Iraq ... or even Israel. While it can be said that Syria and Iraq were taken out of the game (for how long?), Egypt was reintroduced into the party.

        on BV only countries formed within the framework of self-identified national groups will remain stable.
        Egypt- Egyptians feel themselves primarily Egyptians. and then the Arabs
        Israel - well, it’s clear why
        Jordan is a troubled country, but the monarchy is holding back
        Syria, Iraq, Lebanon - will fall apart into enclaves - Sunnis. Druze. Christians (which is inquiring as they are in such a minority that they will be cut and driven out) by the Kurds. Shiites
        Gulf countries - dough enough to shut up all the holes
        Yemen - Saudi Arabia will crush him
        Iran is not a BV country, but it is a nation that was formed many centuries ago and therefore is a stable state.
        Well, who is left? Look like that's it.
        1. Eugene-Eugene
          Eugene-Eugene 26 September 2015 12: 21
          There is no unification there, and the collapse of artificial states occurs.

          Per aspera ad astra
    2. hrych
      hrych 26 September 2015 08: 10
      Here, rather, it is exactly the opposite. The Anglo-Saxons still control the sea trade route, especially the straits and canals. In particular, the "bottleneck" of Singapore where the path from the Indian Ocean to the APR is located, the entrances to the Panama and Suez Canals, the Strait of Hormuz, as a gateway to the Persian Gulf, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as a gateway to the Red Sea, and Gibraltar with Bosphorus, respectively. And if we take into account that the channels, unlike the straits, must be controlled from both sides, then their combat fleet is appropriate, and the number of AUG will coincide with the number of these key points ... In fact, promising oil and gas pipelines are beneficial to the EU, as the main consumer hydrocarbons, but not beneficial to the Anglo-Saxons, where their scheme of control and domination will collapse. The Britons convinced their tame empty-headed sheikhs and Middle Eastern kings for their own means to chaot exactly the areas promising for wires. By convincing them that when these regimes are swept away, the sheikhs will control the wires, plus they will control the entire Arab world. And the Israelis were convinced with almost the same, plus a blizzard about the creation of a "Greater Israel", which again coincides with the area where ISIS operates and which, again, will prosper and live only on the transit of fuel. They gave the Turks noodles about support for the new Ottoman Empire, while at the same time frightening the emerging Kurdistan, which would tear apart the remnants of Anatolia, not just the empire ... One way or another, but once again everyone was shaved, including the EU, sheikhs, Turks and Jews. Having chaotized the region, they discarded the prospect of creating wires for an indefinite period, and taking into account the ending oil - forever, no madman will build wires through the battle zone, and they will calmly continue to control the sea route. Oddly enough for Russia - this trick of the brites is beneficial for us for the northern transit of its raw materials, but in this way, too, some people there ignited the war, chaotizing the main wire - the independent one. However, the GDP, puts the Turks on the "needle", and the Germans finally cut through and there will be Nord Stream-2, then 3. One way or another, a Russian-German alliance arises, which the Britons hindered for many hundreds of years with their game ... So they are agonizing with rotten atomic bombs and so on ... And if all this is compared, all the messages of the news feeds become logical.
      1. Eugene-Eugene
        Eugene-Eugene 26 September 2015 12: 07
        One does not interfere. There is regional geopolitics, there is global. You are undoubtedly right that the sea trade routes are under the control of the United States and a good part of their world politics is subordinate to the preservation of these positions. However, planetary dominance based on this position proved to be rather shaky. Alternative trade routes outside the AUG control zone (silk in any form, northern sea) are not so difficult to deploy. Well, yes, the exchange with the Americas, Oceania and partly Africa will remain under American control, but the rules of trade imposed by the states of Europe and Asia will lose their relevance, they will get out of the striped economic control. Therefore, a reorientation to alternative paths will actually mean a challenge to the world domination of the United States, they will begin to implement a complex of Maidans and interventions along their length (in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, for example, that is, where the most promising version of the Silk Road lies at the moment). I don’t think that the Russian Federation and the PRC will put up with this and this may ultimately lead to unpredictable consequences ... I don’t think that there are forces now ready to accept this risk. That is, in fact, I am talking about the fact that the AUG does not provide commercial and political control, but it is based on the systemic position of the states. Therefore, the opponents of American domination, who are not ready to enter into direct confrontation with the United States, have chosen a different strategy: figuratively speaking, "pinch to death" - to support regional centralization, which knocks the ground out from under the United States and gradually deprives them of influence in key nodes of the world system , that is, it destroys their systemic position.
        1. hrych
          hrych 26 September 2015 14: 13
          The most promising version of the "Silk Road" is simply the Russian Federation, the Baltic is connected by railway transport and already, even by road, directly with the APR. The BAM was completed to help the Trans-Siberian Railway, along the Chita-Khabarovsk highway, the VVP drove a Kalina, when the liberals ridiculed the greatest act when a truck from Nakhodka can safely reach Edinburgh. Neither Kazakhstan nor Azerbaijan is needed here, moreover, the Russian Federation unobtrusively overshadows these projects as competitive. Attempts to hold a Maidan in the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan have already been made, but they failed, so they repeated it in Ukraine. the first orange with Yushchenko passed, but the vaccination did not help (similarly with 1905, when Nicholas II was given a chance ...). The Northern Sea Route has the same bottlenecks, in particular the Bering Strait, where one coast is stupid for now just the United States. As regards the commodity exchange between the continents, and above all the EU and the APR, it is clear, and here the Atlanticists cannot control everything. Again, theoretically, there are no such goods that would be made, say, by Japan and not made by Germany, and vice versa (as earlier the same silk). Rather, now the trade turnover is due to the difference in the costs of producing goods (cheap Asian labor and a disregard for the environment). However, it is about the commodity path and in particular, the location of the "world gas station" - the Persian Gulf, from which the route goes both to the EU and the Asia-Pacific region, and where AUG is replaced by a rotational method. And accordingly, the attribute of the existing order - the supranational dollar, as a world currency, backed not by gold, as national currencies, but by "black gold" - the main commodity on the planet. But when oil flows through the pipes from the Persian Gulf, both to the EU and to India from China, the dollar and, accordingly, the London and New York stock exchanges will not influence order, and the United States will return to a provincial existence, as 150 years ago but the shaved queen will own the trash heap. Therefore, occupied Afghanistan stood on the way of the pipe to the east, and occupied Iraq stood on the way of the pipe to the EU. This is the essence of the two wars unleashed by the Atlantists at the beginning of the 21st century. it anti-pipeline war to save World order, and the reason for the laymen is the explosions of two skyscrapers ...
    3. With Petrovsky
      With Petrovsky 27 September 2015 19: 40
      Here, only the economic and naturally political interests of the Americans and all.
  2. A1L9E4K9S
    A1L9E4K9S 26 September 2015 06: 45
    Be that as it may, the Caliphate is doomed. He did not fulfill the task assigned to him, becoming only an advertising-promoted hotbed of terrorist threat and a source of instability in the region

    It is doomed, it is doomed, but it will drink a lot more human blood until it is driven into the earth, and not to destroy this infection until the end .... it will create something else, as long as this abscess exists on the planet, do not wait for peace on Earth.
    1. fif21
      fif21 26 September 2015 08: 05
      Quote: A1L9E4K9S
      Be that as it may, the Caliphate is doomed.
      But the results of his activities for the Middle East as a whole, and partly for Europe, are destructive. I’m afraid to "hit" but if the mattress toppers do not stop behaving like an "elephant in a china shop" the consequences can be disastrous. Europe seems to have not yet grasped the seriousness of the problem. The fact that she has already become different (refugees) is already a fact! But how different will it become? And will she be able to preserve her peasant values? Will Europeans be able to assimilate Muslims safely and painlessly? Oh, they will finish badly with matches.
  3. fa2998
    fa2998 26 September 2015 06: 52
    You will look at the "map" of this "caliphate" - solid "threads" are roads controlled by militants. There are no large areas. If the REAL MILITARY starts to deal with this "state" - cut these threads - the Caliphate will disintegrate into besieged cities, without supplies, and maneuvers of forces ... hi
    1. a52333
      a52333 26 September 2015 07: 53
      Quote: fa2998
      You will look at the "map" of this "caliphate" - solid "threads" are roads controlled by militants

      60% of Syria's territory is desert. The caliphate is in charge there. And the strings because only there is water and life. And in the rest of the territory (where there is no water) / is there to catch ???
  4. slizhov
    slizhov 26 September 2015 07: 34
    And ... keep your pockets wider ...
    Take care of yourself, Barack!
    Without you today in the world
    With democracy - no way.
    ... Regarding the sanctions:
    To us they are a forward kick.
    What is to the detriment of the Americans
    Russian people only for good!
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 26 September 2015 07: 45
    Of course, you can physically destroy most of the IS supporters, howling in Syria, but the idea itself, which was accepted by millions, remains. Therefore, we will hear about the "Caliphate" for more than a dozen years.
    1. anti-Semite
      anti-Semite 26 September 2015 16: 44
      the very idea of ​​the caliphate appeared hundreds of years before the igil
  6. Eugene-Eugene
    Eugene-Eugene 26 September 2015 07: 48
    US Spends 9 Millions of Dollars Daily to Provide ISIS Air Strikes

    These are mere pennies / cents for them. During Operation Desert Storm, they spent $ 1 billion daily.
  7. samarin1969
    samarin1969 26 September 2015 08: 19
    "Turkey also expressed its positive position on countering ISIS ...", but there was a lot of information that this does not prevent Ankara from buying oil from ISIS on the gray market .... Only Alawites, Shiites and the Russian Federation will fight ISIS.
    1. Nekarmadlen
      Nekarmadlen 26 September 2015 11: 32
      It is not yet known how the rest of the Muslim (Sunni) world will react if their faith brothers who conduct jihad (igil) begin to kill infidels (Russians, Alvites and Shiites) .... Has anyone thought about this? Are, for example, our special services ready for the appearance of suicide bombers ....
  8. olimpiada15
    olimpiada15 26 September 2015 08: 41
    The interests of the United States and the Russian Federation in this region are opposite:
    - Russia needs a return to stability and the previously existing alignment of interstate forces,
    - The United States needs access to undivided control over oil resources in Iraq and Syria, for which we need to redraw the map of the region.
    The states will not give up their goals — they need complete control over all the main resources of the planet in order to exist in their current form — it is vital for them to maintain the dominance of the dollar, crowding out and devaluing the currency in any country. In any struggle, the United States does not spend its own resources, they just include printing press. Real resources flow away from those countries that have made free, uncontrolled access of the dollar to their economy, which is the basis for reducing the purchasing power of state money.
    Diplomatic efforts may lead to the recognition of common interests in the fight against terrorism, but they will never change the goals set by the states, i.e., all agreements will be periodically broken down under any pretext and countries that agree to this alliance will suffer damage, but will not receive the desired result, a picture of local success will simply periodically appear.
    When concluding agreements on joint actions with the United States in this region, we must not forget that, while doing a good face, they are holding an ax behind their newly acquired partner.
  9. Vega
    Vega 26 September 2015 08: 56
    Control of Arabia and the Middle East, it is control not only of oil areas but also control of the Mediterranean, and the shortest route from Europe to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. For some, a very tidbit.
  10. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 26 September 2015 09: 37
    IMHO, it was the understanding of their doom that caused the "spurt" of the members of various terrorist organizations to Europe, disguised by the crowd provoked to the "exodus". As soon as Russia made it clear that it was not surrendering Assad, then they realized that there was nothing more to catch, and in the east they could not hide from the very likely "cleansing" by the Syrian special services. I suppose after all the good they've done, they don't have to rely on leniency, as well as in jury trials ...
  11. Vasisualiy
    Vasisualiy 26 September 2015 09: 38
    Quote: Eugene-Eugene
    [i] Peace will come when one of the leading players in this region rises - the Saudis, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Iraq ... or even Israel. While it can be said that Syria and Iraq were taken out of the game (for how long?), Egypt was reintroduced into the party.

    There will be peace in this region only if "American gas and oil" runs out there, or if all the Zionists are cut off from the BV. Nothing personal, just business (s).
    1. 31rus
      31rus 26 September 2015 10: 07
      Quite rightly and not alone one country is not able to rise in this region, it is a constantly boiling cauldron, somewhere stronger, somewhere weaker, neither Israel nor Iran are able to lead alone and even more so succeed even in politics, even in militarily this region
  12. 31rus
    31rus 26 September 2015 10: 02
    It’s very optimistic, are you respected that I’m sure? I don’t, the USA is blocking the most important direction in the struggle to recognize ISIS as a terrorist state, an organization, therefore US support for ISIS will continue, it’s not a little an important factor in the EU, where refugees have rushed, then there will be new recruitment as the Arabs themselves and the Europeans, while ISIS has money, the war will last demon of course
  13. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 26 September 2015 10: 47
    An interesting article, but I cannot share the author's optimistic reasoning. With a sufficiently deep and interesting analysis of the situation, the author's verdict about the inevitable and imminent "death" of the "caliphate" is somewhat inconsistent. The tangle of contradictions in the Middle East is so serious that any radical solution simply does not exist, due to the lack of an opportunity to take into account the interests of ALL parties.

    Here it is like that. hi
  14. Lyton
    Lyton 26 September 2015 11: 45
    Ska, mattresses, as always in their repertoire, merge those who they no longer need, the Caliph for an hour is the whole IG, and then complete Makhnovism, the war of everyone against everyone.
  15. Asadullah
    Asadullah 26 September 2015 12: 20
    operates with much more peaceful concepts for his followers.

    Yeah, yeah. Tell, tell. The caliphate in the form of ISIS and ISIS (which is not the same thing) is the most vile formation in the history of both Islam and humanity. As for humanity, this phenomenon simply did not gain strength, the flywheel was unbalanced initially, otherwise Pol Pot would become a court jester in Baghdad, and Hitler would be a whipping boy. For, the ideology of the modern caliphate not only overturns the essence of Islam, not only directs the theological component of the denomination in the opposite direction, but also implements the destruction of Muslims in practice. It would be the same if some Mormons seized power and began to destroy not only non-Christians, but also non-Mormon Christians. It is destruction. Moreover, such a thing is also practiced, a person accepts the dogmas of radicals out of fear (you can’t even call it Salafism, because Salafia fundamentally rejects any violence, it’s some kind of eight-winged seven-member if anyone knows Islam), but they still cut his throat, already as true, but for not doing it yesterday.

    Compare all this with the caliphate of Caliph Umar, who at the dawn of the wild Middle Ages not only did not cut out infidels and pagans, but also distributed bread. Islam was accepted because of tax benefits and the unconditional protection of the Muslim caliph. Moreover, the early Muslims were completely indifferent to the ancient shrines. unlike the early Christians, who broke everything in Egypt that they could, scraped off everything that reached out to hands. You can’t name what these creatures do, because there is no such word in Arabic, Farsi, Dari or Pashto. This is the darkest creation of shaitan, and in theory, the entire Muslim ummah should rise to jihad, against this madness.

    I do not evaluate the article, but I consider it a subtle advertisement of the caliphate in the form of ISIS, ISIS. The author appeals to the relations between the adherents of this Chernukha, such as brotherhood and simplicity. In fact, these relations are riddled with hypocrisy, where the bottoms are held together by overflows of fear of different shades, and the tops are the strains of their position and brew of interests. The recipe from Asadullah is to destroy these coves as dichlorvos cockroaches, like rats by any means, regardless of flying chips. All of humanity should have a clear signal, that which threatens civilization, humanity, should be destroyed without regard to the inventions of the newly-arrived humanists and advocates for the rights of parasites.
  16. alone
    alone 26 September 2015 17: 43
    It's too early to talk about the decline of ISIS. To accomplish this, we must take ISIS seriously. Otherwise, I see articles like “let's roll it into the asphalt and soak it in the outhouse!” make excuses for failures.
  17. andrewkor
    andrewkor 26 September 2015 18: 00
    just on "Russia-24" it was reported about the creation of a contact group of representatives of the general staffs of Russia, Syria, Iran and Iraq, stationed in Damascus with the task of coordinating actions to counter ISIS.
    1. vetrov
      vetrov 26 September 2015 21: 42
      Amendment. Not in Damascus, but in Baghdad.