Oil: how optimists were mistaken

From the forecasts of the recent past, predictions of government economists, oil managers, market speculators, people from OPEC and other experts about world oil prices are known. Eating up with the euphoria of high incomes, some of these experts predicted the price of "black gold" as much as two hundred dollars per barrel. 150 or 100 coins per barrel seemed to be quite ordinary forecasts. And only the sly Saudis talked about twenty dollars per barrel.




The barrel of the Brent mix on the last September days of 2015 costs an average of 49 dollars. (Recall, the pricing of Russian Urals oil is guided by the market value of Brent.) Has the price been settled? About this, knowing the fluctuations of 2014-2015, is ridiculous and to think.

Recently "Lenta.ru" collected some predictions regarding changes in oil prices on the world market. Today, it is amusing to re-read, like other eminent persons who are directly related to raw materials or trade in raw materials, shone with their optimism.

Here, for example, the head of Lukoil, Vagit Alekperov. Three months ago, he suggested that a barrel of oil in the next three years would cost 60-70 dollars. A little earlier, Mr. Alekperov called another number: 75 dollars per barrel.

But the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. He "promised" that the market would give a hundred dollars per barrel. This price the president predicted 16 May 2015 of the year. The forecast, of course, looks naive. It is caused by the almost complete dependence of the Bolivarian Republic on the export of hydrocarbons. The budget deficit, inflation (68,5% for 2014), the queue for goods in stores - alas, the Venezuelan people see all the charms of socialist oil dependence.

Superoptimistic can be called the forecast of Alexey Miller, who is also not an outsider, raw person.

In June, Gazprom's 2013 predicted that the Brent barrel could rise in price to 150 dollars. In his opinion, a drop in oil production in the countries of North Africa will lead to price increases. Five years earlier, in the middle of 2008, Mr. Miller said that oil would rise in price to 250 dollars, which would affect the price of gas: “In this case, the European gas price will be one thousand dollars per thousand cubic meters.”

Another super-optimist is Abdullah al-Badri, OPEC Secretary General. This man in January 2015 predicted the price of 200 dollars per barrel.

Despite the then sinking of oil prices, the head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries courageously predicted an increase in the cost of a barrel to 200 dollars. An amazing thing!

You can not ignore the forecast of the economic guru of the domestic spill - Alexei Ulyukayev.

Our Minister of Economic Development recently promised 60 dollars per barrel.

21 June, notes Lenta.ru, this official said: in 2015, the cost of a barrel of oil will be 60 dollars, and in 2016, oil will be sold at 75 dollars.

“It is worth noting the minister’s toughness - he does not respond to panic,” writes Lenta commentator Marat Seleznyov. - So, July 10 Ulyukayev admitted that the oil market is very mobile and subject to change, but even with this in mind, the Ministry of Economic Development does not change the base oil forecast: 50 dollars per barrel - this is the guideline of the Russian economic authorities. “This is such a highly conservative prediction, such a high stability of the structures that we have no reason to revise,” Ulyukayev emphasized. ”

Minister hardness, speak? No reason to revise?

It seems to us that Ulyukaev is not at all such a tough nutlet that the Lenta journalist has portrayed him. This minor prophet of the economy and its "development" in September issued a new forecast, much more in line with reality and not leaving a foundation behind the former ministerial optimism.

"The Ministry of Economic Development has revised downward the scenario of the country's socio-economic development to 2018," writes September September 10. "Russian newspaper", which is the most current official source. - The final version of the “Basic Parameters of the Forecast of the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2016-2018” was sent to the government. ”

We read in the material: the forecast for Russia's GDP is reduced: GDP in the 2016 year will grow only by 0,9% instead of the previously planned 1,8%. Of course, the reason for this will be low oil prices.

And here is the key forecast: recognition of the dependence of the Russian economy on world prices for raw materials. In the Ministry of Economic Development forecast, the average cost of a barrel of oil in the fourth quarter of 2015 is equal to 38,7 dollars. This number of experts rightly called the "shock" price.

RG notes that cheapening oil creates major risks for the Russian economy. Budget expenditures will be reduced.

“The Ministry of Economic Development continues to work on a revised forecast. According to the procedure for preparing the document, all working versions of the material are sent for discussion to interested departments. The final version of the document will be formed after receiving expert evaluations and submitted to the government, ”the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper told the Ministry of Economic Development.

So, let us add on our own that Mr. Ulyukayev and his subordinates decided to revise the forecasts. Probably, they finally opened the long-forgotten textbooks of economic theory and sorted out the intricacies of the law of supply and demand. After reading market analytics, they clutched at their bright minds: priests, but what is the supply of oil in the world? almost tripled exceeds demand! But soon Iran will throw its oil into the market!

Of course, where does 60 come from and, all the more, 70 dollars per barrel, not to mention 150?

It is time to recall the forecast of the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia, Ali al-Naimi, who in December last year talked even about 20 dollars per barrel. According to him, for Riyadh, not the price of oil, but the market share is a priority. Low prices will remove players who can not survive with cheap oil.

The global economy is a completely open field of activity, which the liberal Ulyukayev should be aware of. When the global market gets too much supply, what happens? Competition beats down prices! Demand is crucial.

It seems that the Ministry of Economic Development in its "updated forecasts" focuses (or relies, as you like) on the opinions of Western experts. As well as the "eastern" - OPEC. To ignore them is simply ridiculous.

According to the latest International Energy Agency (International Energy Agency, IEA), the oil market will continue to move towards lower prices. IEA experts assume that an oversupply of oil will be characteristic of the 2016 year. Global stocks will continue to accumulate.

The report of the International Energy Agency indicates that the oil surplus on the market in Q2 2015 reached 3 million barrels per day. This is the maximum value for the last seventeen years!

Go ahead.

Analysts of Societe Generale lowered the outlook for oil prices in the near future due to its oversupply in the global market, the portal reports "Vesti.Ekonomika" with reference to Bloomberg.

According to analysts, the variety “Brent” in the fourth quarter of 2015 of the year will cost an average of 47,5 dollars per barrel (this is by 10 dollars below the previous estimate). Forecast for WTI reduced to $ 42,5 per barrel.

In addition, the experts “worsened” the previous forecasts for prices in 2016: for Brent - up to 54,4 dollars per barrel; for WTI - up to $ 49,4 per barrel.

According to SocGen, the excessive excess of supply over demand will continue until the end of next year. Causes: unabsorbed production in the United States, significant production volumes in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, a gradual return to the Iranian market.

And here are the American assumptions.

US authorities cut oil consumption forecast, reported Quote.rbc.ru with reference to Reuters.

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered growth forecasts for global oil consumption. At the end of this year, the demand for oil will increase by 1,17 million barrels per day, which is by 90 thousand barrels. less than previously thought. Forecast of US oil production growth in 2015 year, EIA has reduced from 650 thousand barrels. to 500 thousand barrels per day.

Finally, OPEC.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also issued a pessimistic outlook. The revision of forecasts was caused by an oversupply of oil on the world market and a weakening of demand in China.

According to OPEC forecasts, which lead "Vedomosti" with reference to the Wall Street Journal, the price of Brent crude will vary within $ 40-50 per barrel until the end of 2015. Previously, cartel members expected prices to recover to $ 70-80 dollars by the end of this year.

And a bit more News of those rich eastern states that have been hit by price declines.

Experts noteSaudi Arabia is returning to the bond market with the goal of attracting 27 billion dollars by the end of 2015. This fact shows how the fall in oil prices affected the finances of the world's largest oil exporter.

1 September Qatar has issued bonds for 15 billion riyals (4,1 billion dollars), taking advantage of the low cost of borrowing to replenish its finances, undermined by lower oil prices.

As for Russia, pessimism reigns in the opinions of experts on a tangential bright oil future.

В Gazeta.ru recently published an article under the eloquent title: "The worst scenario for Russia."

“The escalation of the conflict in the Donbass could lead to the imposition of the toughest sanctions against Russia, in particular the embargo on oil exports,” writes analyst Peter Orekhin.

In his opinion, the oil embargo will deliver a “crushing blow to the stability of the Russian economy and financial system.”

“Of the $ 181,8 billion in exports in the first half of this year, oil and oil products accounted for $ 87 billion. Russia exported 48,4% of oil produced and 64,7% of oil products produced. Even taking into account the fact that exports to China will remain, the domestic market will not be able to consume this amount of raw materials and fuel, which means that it will have to stop the plants and preserve the wells.

The embargo will lead to the fact that Russia will lose and such a powerful resource, as a positive balance of foreign trade (about $ 100 billion for January - July of this year). Now, thanks to him, he manages to pay off his foreign debts quite painlessly. ”


The analyst recalls that a zero or negative balance means the following: the only source of currency to pay creditors will be the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank. The latter are already small: on 28 August, their size was 366,4 billion dollars. And there is no guarantee that these funds, most of which are currency and debt obligations of foreign countries, will not be frozen by sanctions measures.

What to do? The analyst cites the well-known economic prescriptions for presidential adviser Sergey Glazyev.

In a difficult situation, the authorities will have to impose restrictions on currency transactions, exporters will be obliged to sell all foreign exchange earnings, they will establish strict control over the movement of capital. Other recipes of Glazyev may also be in demand, including printing money as a source of financing for the investment process: “If you print money for speculators who throw it in the foreign exchange market, then there will be inflation. If you print money under the growth of productive investment, there will be no inflation. Take the United States, the European Union. With a giant emission, inflation is at zero. That is, if you follow the targeted use of money, you give them as much as you need to develop production and investment without an inflationary effect. ”

However, other experts believe that there will be no oil embargo: it could bring down the world market.

For example, the leading analyst of the National Energy Security Foundation, Igor Yushkov, speaks about this.

“It seems to me,” he said. "Free Press"- that neither the Europeans nor the Americans are going to really abandon Russian oil. If Russia stops exporting oil to Western countries, the same thing can happen that in 1973, when prices soared because Arab countries stopped supplying energy to Western countries that supported Israel. Then there was the first energy crisis, which is still considered the largest. ”

According to the expert, the world cannot abandon Russian oil. Russia produces about 526 million tons of oil per year, and more than half is exported. But the United States, despite the "shale revolution", remains an oil importer (about 250 million tons per year are purchased).

In essence, let us add, all the talk about the price of oil in the world boils down to one, the main thing: Russia's strong dependence on commodity trade. If world oil prices are high, the federal budget is in surplus-chocolate; if the price falls, the budget falls into deficit, and the Ministry of Economic Development draws gloomy forecasts. Now this question is most acute: first, there are Western sanctions; secondly, the inflation spiral unwinds; thirdly, the government is engaged in rearmament of the army, which requires huge sums of money. In addition, we should not forget about the social obligations of the state: pensions, medicine, science, education, culture ... The decline in budget revenues will inevitably hit everything that ordinary citizens use.

As for the scenarios of Comrade Glazyev, then talking is one thing and doing the other. Was the president in 2000-2005. another adviser, Mr. Illarionov. At one time, he in the journal “Economic Issues” called the increase in oil prices in 2000 a “net grant from abroad”. And now, for fifteen years, we note, the Russian economy is built on this “pure grant”. From the fact that Putin has changed adviser, the economy has not changed. Even the “direction” of pipes to China, as well as Russia's accession to the WTO, suggests that the Russian economy will remain raw.
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  1. Barboskin 14 September 2015 06: 13 New
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    The fall in prices is still temporary, now the weakest will be removed from the market, and then those same 150-200 per barrel will be trampled. In general, this fall in prices is artificial.
    1. siberalt 14 September 2015 06: 48 New
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      It seems that Ulyukaev is the weakest minister in the history of the Russian Federation, no doubt. We must tie with the ministers, fortune tellers. am
      1. beer-youk 14 September 2015 07: 10 New
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        What do you want? He is a banker by education.
        1. scout 14 September 2015 09: 39 New
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          I would like people reading these forecasts to understand that they are caused not by the awareness of the people who give them, but by the political situation, with reality, as a rule, having little in common.
        2. anip 14 September 2015 12: 29 New
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          Quote: beer-youk
          What do you want? He is a banker by education.

          Uh-uh Now iron his head?
          1. Talgat 14 September 2015 18: 45 New
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            in general, the price of oil is formed by absolutely non-market mechanisms - and the "appointed" by the Fed with the help of Saudis

            At one time they helped to break the USSR with low oil prices

            Now the price of oil is formed “allegedly in a market way” on the 3 exchanges - Simex Nimex and Limex - this is Singapore New York and London - but if you look at volumes, you will see that less than 1% of world trade is traded there

            And the factors of price changes are generally ridiculous - here the stocks in the states have increased - and the price has gone down - and the whole world is behind them

            te printing dollars of candy wrappers not provided with either gold or real goods is just one of the instruments of world domination of Fed families

            Price control for the main strategic products (oil, gold, diamonds, etc.) is the second strongest tool (remember the gold fixing - it generally goes beyond any limits - the price of gold for a decade has simply been "set" by the 4 Fed banks - give me such power and I will become " God "- this is really divine power - raised the price and sold gold - lowered and bought - you can only use this tool to become a" master of the world)

            The strongest US army and navy only reinforce their dominance

            Hence the answers to all questions - refugees in Europe, chaos and war in the Middle East, Ukraine, and so on and so forth - nothing is done in this world without the decision of the "owners"
            1. namer 14 September 2015 19: 36 New
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              Quote: Talgat
              In general, the price of oil is formed by absolutely no market mechanisms - but the "appointed" by the Fed with the help of the Saudis

              Ie in due time 150 bucks - they appointed it to themselves? belay
              Quote: Talgat
              Now the price of oil is formed "allegedly by market" on 3 exchanges

              see 2 lines above
              Quote: Talgat
              imex nimex and limex - this is singapore new york and london - but if you look at volumes, you will see that less than 1% of world trade is traded there

              1% - are you sure?
              Quote: Talgat
              And the factors of price changes are generally ridiculous - here the stocks in the states have increased - and the price has gone down - and the whole world is behind them

              te printing dollars of candy wrappers not provided with either gold or real goods is just one of the instruments of world domination of Fed families

              and where in the summary of oil reserves in America at least one mention of the dollar?
              Quote: Talgat
              Price control for the main strategic products (oil, gold, diamonds, etc.) is the second strongest tool (remember the gold fixing - it generally goes beyond any limits - the price of gold for a decade was simply “assigned” by 4 Fed banks -

              Appointed? belay
              I don’t know how it used to be, but how now and why (if assigned) the price of gold fell by almost 30-40%?
              Quote: Talgat
              Hence the answers to all questions - refugees in Europe, chaos and war in the Middle East, Ukraine, and so on and so forth - nothing is done in this world without the decision of the "owners"

              no answers. So why refugees in Europe, crisis, etc.?
      2. the polar 14 September 2015 08: 31 New
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        Quote: siberalt
        It seems that Ulyukaev is the weakest minister in the history of the Russian Federation, no doubt. We must tie with the ministers, fortune tellers. am

        It is necessary for all ministers, together with the prime minister, to tie in a bag, tightly and into the hole
        1. Nikolay K 14 September 2015 10: 02 New
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          Yeah, the defense minister has already been abandoned. . . sailed on the cote d'azur. Mr. but not drowning
      3. sherp2015 14 September 2015 08: 50 New
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        Quote: siberalt
        It seems that Ulyukaev is the weakest minister in the history of the Russian Federation, no doubt. We must tie with the ministers, fortune tellers.


        The Kremlin government does not see normal competent specialists! empty chatterboxes "reformers" and mediocrity with fucking salaries
        1. the polar 14 September 2015 08: 55 New
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          Quote: sherp2015
          Quote: siberalt
          It seems that Ulyukaev is the weakest minister in the history of the Russian Federation, no doubt. We must tie with the ministers, fortune tellers.


          The Kremlin government does not see normal competent specialists! empty chatterboxes "reformers" and mediocrity with fucking salaries

          Simply put, pests and enemies of the people
          1. andj61 14 September 2015 11: 03 New
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            then it concerns comrade Glazyev’s scenarios, then speaking is one thing and doing is another. He was with the president in 2000-2005. another adviser, Mr. Illarionov. In his time in the journal Voprosy ekonomiki, he called the increase in oil prices in 2000 a “net grant from abroad”. And for fifteen years, let’s note, the Russian economy has been built on this “clean grant”. The fact that Putin has an adviser has changed, the economy has not changed.

            good
            Glazyev offers one of the options for a mobilization economy. True, this is a variant of the economy that is not the most efficient, Stalin-type, but rather a variant of the Roosevelt economy, but this option also allows solving problems quite effectively. However, the key ministers of our government are by no means ready not only to accept, but even to seriously discuss Glazyev’s proposals.
        2. Senior manager 14 September 2015 10: 57 New
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          Balies.
        3. Platon Mironov
          Platon Mironov 14 September 2015 11: 18 New
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          Our government is formed not according to the competence of each particular official, but according to a kinship-friendly principle. For 10 years at the helm of Russian Railways, Yakunin has not brought this state monopoly on self-sufficiency. And most of these "effective managers" !!!
      4. Mareman Vasilich 14 September 2015 10: 45 New
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        It's not about Ulyukaev. The fact is that if you do nothing, then they do it for you.
      5. go21zd45few 14 September 2015 20: 32 New
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        And if you name at least one strong minister in our government, it is believed that they, these mediocrity, are specially moved from one sector of the economy to another for a gradual collapse. Ulyukaev, Nabiulina, Siluanov, and others, these individuals must be kept as far away as possible from the management of the economy until they are completely finished off.
    2. inkass_98 14 September 2015 06: 59 New
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      Quote: Barboskin
      In general, this fall in prices is artificial.

      Moreover, they do not trade physical oil, but futures, i.e. securities with some terms of contracts, the number of these securities exceeds the amount of available oil by several times, hence the speculative situation in the market. There is a banal trade in air, as is customary now on exchanges. And then from somewhere "bubbles" come in various, which tend to burst.
      Higher prices may contribute to a sort of medium-sized war in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula with the participation of the oil monarchies. It seems that the Saudis have sensed this moment with their ass and against this background have often come to Russia on various occasions.
      1. namer 14 September 2015 08: 59 New
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        Quote: inkass_98
        Moreover, they do not trade physical oil, but futures, i.e. securities with some terms of contracts, the number of these securities exceeds the amount of available oil at times,

        Tales - physical oil is being traded, futures contracts are a completely different compote.
        Namely ,
        Suppose Rosneft needs money (but they still need it) - it launches a contract for January for 1 million tons of oil on the market (take into account oil has not been produced yet and not even shipped), at the price set at the auction (roughly speaking) let's say 50 bucks barrel B. barrel - This is the futures contract. Rosneft receives short-term loans (money received - for future oil) in the hands of the buyer - a contract for 1 million tons of oil for 50 bucks.
        Further, depending on the situation - he can sell it, resell it, hold it, BUT
        Oil will be delivered and sold under the contract in January - as was said.
        That is, oil is real, contracts are real, money is real - the rest is nonsense and propaganda.
        Quote: inkass_98
        x And then from somewhere "bubbles" come in various, which tend to burst.

        strange you, when oil was at 150 - it all said the real price, and now at 40 - speculators like profiting
        -What's this ? An alternate universe? At 150 speculators profited. at 50 - less profit. IMHO
        Quote: inkass_98
        A medium-sized war in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula with the participation of oil monarchies can contribute to higher prices.

        How do you want war, what would be better to live, huh?
        1. 787nkx 14 September 2015 11: 42 New
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          Further, depending on the situation - he can sell it, resell it, hold it, BUT
          Oil will be delivered and sold under the contract in January - as was said.
          That is, oil is real, contracts are real, money is real - the rest is nonsense and propaganda.


          I wonder what further movements of the sold futures take place, before physical shipment and receipt by a specific consumer?
          1. Vladimir 1964 14 September 2015 13: 52 New
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            Dear Alexander, I have already commented below, but I repeat for your convenience.

            The essence of any futures contract is to defer payment, i.e. Today, the parties to the transaction agree on the price at which the seller will sell in the future, and the buyer will buy the underlying asset.
            In other words, what is futures - this is an analogue of the dispute between the two partners in the transaction regarding the price of the underlying asset in the future. For example, the underlying asset is the stock of a company - in this case, the futures buyer puts up the price of the shares of this company in the next 3 months, and the seller of the futures puts the stock price of the same company down for the same 3 months.
            Three months later, the theoretical price is compared with the current market price, as a result of which one side of the transaction is the winner and the other is the loser. A futures contract is an obligation, therefore, the losing party is obliged to transfer to the winning party the difference in price (at a loss). In practice, the transfer of the total difference is carried out automatically without the participation of a trader and is a function of the exchange.

            He wrote something, and then realized that he went through it. In a nutshell, then, a futures contract in general (99%) does not imply moving the object of the contract (product), it is rather a speculative tool, extremely risky, but profitable and practically without cost.

            That's probably somewhere like that.
          2. namer 14 September 2015 16: 06 New
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            Quote: 787nkx
            I wonder what further movements of the sold futures take place, before physical shipment and receipt by a specific consumer?

            The consumer will receive his 1 million tons of oil in any case, But the buyer of the futures can both win and lose. that’s it.
        2. Alexl 14 September 2015 12: 12 New
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          Where does so much demand for physical oil come from? Compared to the beginning of the 2000s, oil prices rose by almost 2010 times by 10. Is this really the demand for it 10 times increased?
          1. namer 14 September 2015 16: 14 New
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            Quote: AleksL
            Where does so much demand for physical oil come from?

            Do you know cars that drive gasoline and diesel?
            Quote: AleksL
            Compared to the beginning of the 2000s, oil prices rose by almost 2010 times by 10. Is this really the demand for it 10 times increased?

            no lenin addiction
        3. Vladimir 1964 14 September 2015 13: 37 New
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          Dear namer, let me disagree with you, in defining the concept of FUTURES:

          The essence of any futures contract is to defer payment, i.e. Today, the parties to the transaction agree on the price at which the seller will sell in the future, and the buyer will buy the underlying asset.
          In other words, what is futures - this is an analogue of the dispute between the two partners in the transaction regarding the price of the underlying asset in the future. For example, the underlying asset is the stock of a company - in this case, the futures buyer puts up the price of the shares of this company in the next 3 months, and the seller of the futures puts the stock price of the same company down for the same 3 months.
          Three months later, the theoretical price is compared with the current market price, as a result of which one side of the transaction is the winner and the other is the loser. A futures contract is an obligation, therefore, the losing party is obliged to transfer to the winning party the difference in price (at a loss). In practice, the transfer of the total difference is carried out automatically without the participation of a trader and is a function of the exchange.

          He wrote something, and then realized that he went through it. In a nutshell, then, a futures contract in general (99%) does not imply moving the object of the contract (product), it is rather a speculative tool, extremely risky, but profitable and practically without cost.

          That's probably somewhere like that.
    3. Nikolay K 14 September 2015 07: 32 New
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      Rather, the increase in oil to 100-120 dollars / bar was artificial. In a good scenario, oil will stabilize at 70 dollars.
    4. Kostyar 14 September 2015 08: 04 New
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      Why should oil go up in price if the smuggled oil from the IG is bought for 20 US dollars ....?!
      1. Slobber 14 September 2015 08: 48 New
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        if the smuggled oil from the IG for 20 ke US rubles is bought

        Personal intelligence reported or bought?
        Why rise in price of oil

        There are two different things to trade in overblown volumes and to trade in real goods.
      2. namer 14 September 2015 09: 21 New
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        Quote: Bone
        Why should oil rise in price if I’m buying contraband oil from the IG for 20 ke of US rubles ..

        And how much oil is extracted by ISIS and what percentage does it make of global production - read, count and understand the absurdity of your comment
        1. Ladoga 14 September 2015 13: 02 New
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          The point here is not the percentage of ISIS oil from global oil, but the cost of produced Middle Eastern oil, which is about 9-14 US dollars. So, neither ISIS, nor, all the more, their partners in oil production in the Middle East are at a loss. If you calculate and compare the price of oil today and the one at which it was sold in the recent past, it turns out that supply exceeds demand three times. Of course, we can assume that the market conditions do not apply to ISIS, but in any case, the oil producers can still lower the price of oil without loss to themselves.
        2. anfil 14 September 2015 13: 59 New
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          According to various estimates, the daily income of militants from the self-proclaimed Islamic state of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) from oil smuggling is about 2 million dollars. Before the start of airstrikes from the United States, the export of "black gold" annually brought the group up to 800 million dollars.
          As you know, in Syria and Iraq, where the Islamic state is located, hydrocarbon-rich deposits are located. ISIS leaders managed to capture about 10 fields, including al-Omar, Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Shaer. In addition, the city of Kobani came under the control of the group. There are no large oil fields in it, but thanks to Koban, ISIS opens up opportunities for unhindered oil smuggling - the city is located on the border with Turkey, from where raw materials flow freely to Turkish oil traders. The Islamic state sells oil at bargain prices.
          Who exactly is involved in ISIS oil smuggling? On the one hand, someone is involved who is involved in the transaction process, who is involved in a legitimate economy and has a bank account. Perhaps their vehicles are insured and they have licenses.
          “The rogue states are buying this oil. Syria, North Korea, slowly all other countries - South America and so on, ”says Andrei Listovsky, Director General of the Energy Development Fund.
          In turn, the president of the Institute of the Middle East, Evgeny Satanovsky, is convinced that first of all, hydrocarbons are bought from the Islamic state by Turkey, and secondly, by Jordan. “And then - to whom as God sends.
    5. SPACE 14 September 2015 08: 43 New
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      Quote: Barboskin
      In general, this fall in prices is artificial.

      Definitely knowing about the mechanisms of origin and occurrence of various natural phenomena, we can predict their development, at least the direction and trends. But if we see that the natural course of events is somehow violated, then by this we must understand one thing, a certain extraneous force, for example human, intervened in the natural process. This rule also applies to artificial processes launched by a person, for example, to such global mechanisms as the economy, where oil is its integral and important part, as well as money. So, within the framework of logic and the factors acting at the given moment of time, the increase in energy prices is natural and logical and should continue, it is a tendency to change which for a long period, within the framework of a reasonable (not war), it is impossible, but briefly turn to sleep, of course spending huge efforts is possible. How, within the framework of the created mechanisms of the economy, only by manipulating supply and demand. And if we observe a drop in oil prices contrary to the natural trend, this clearly indicates that someone is manipulating this process. The question is who? I believe that to whom it is beneficial on the one hand, and on the other hand, there are opportunities or levers for this, and there is no point in guessing, it is the United States and the West. They are the largest importers of oil, and besides, the largest producers of goods, which is why they need energy resources, in addition, debts and problems in the economy from a lack of funds, how much more money can be printed. Using the influence and available resources, they collapse the oil market, the price reduction of which is comparable to subsidies in its own commodity-producing economy, such as the oil Qm, and a blow to Russia ... This cannot happen for a long time, as the prices of goods can collapse along the chain As a result, the entire economy will return to its previous level through denomination, after which terrible inflation awaits the euro and the dollar. I suppose there is maneuvering, on the bends of which they break bonuses and make an attempt to break ahead, in general, fill the tanks to the eyeballs.
    6. namer 14 September 2015 08: 50 New
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      Quote: Barboskin
      and then trample those very 150-200 per barrel. In general, this fall in prices is artificial.

      No arguing, we already heard about the collapse of the world economy at 60 bucks a barrel, about the bankruptcy of oil shale at 80 a barrel.
      The reality is that 36 per barrel - oil shale is still profitable. And if it goes bankrupt, then when prices return to the range of 60 per barrel, they will work again.
      There are now no prerequisites for raising oil prices, Iran will enter the market, slowing down the global economy, new technologies.
      60-70 dollars per barrel, in the indefinite future and no higher than this.
      Quote: Barboskin
      In general, this fall in prices is artificial.

      What does artificial mean? It is no more artificial than the price of 150 dollars per barrel.
      1. jjj
        jjj 14 September 2015 09: 21 New
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        The cost of Russian oil production is less than 10 dollars per barrel. Stock to reduce prices is available. For comparison, Western companies have a cost price of about 40-50 dollars. The Americans are even higher. The shale bubble is deflated.
        And in Russia, meanwhile, the Budget Rule was canceled for a year, according to which all income from oil sales exceeding the threshold of 97 dollars should be directed to American debt obligations. It was we who financed the economy of the adversary. And now the "Rule" is frozen under the pretext that it does not work anyway. And something tells me that according to the "Budget Rule" a funeral took place.
        By the way, budget revenues "not from oil" in Russia for the first time exceeded 50 percent
        1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 44 New
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          Quote: jjj
          The cost of Russian oil production is less than $ 10 per barrel. Stock to reduce prices is available.

          By the price of production - yes, by the budget - no
          Quote: jjj
          For comparison, Western companies - the cost is about 40-50 dollars

          What a fairy tale.
          Quote: jjj
          The Americans are even higher. The shale bubble is deflated.

          It has long been (according to many experts laughing ) should have died at 90, 80, 70, 60, 50, etc.
          Like shale gas
          Really look at things, then it will be easier to live
          In any case, the cost of oil shale production in the USA is 30-40 bks and this limiter of oil price will forever be its oil (shale oil) simply not measured
          Quote: jjj
          By the way, budget revenues "not from oil" in Russia for the first time exceeded 50 percent

          And now what? Is there more money?
          1. jjj
            jjj 14 September 2015 10: 04 New
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            Quote: namer
            And now what? Is there more money?

            Yes, there is more money in the budget. Budget execution is in surplus
            1. namer 14 September 2015 10: 27 New
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              Quote: jjj
              Yes, there is more money in the budget. Budget execution is in surplus

              It became more in numerical execution, but there were no more in real prices.
              Otherwise, where is the crisis from?
              1. jjj
                jjj 14 September 2015 12: 18 New
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                Quote: namer
                Otherwise, where is the crisis from?

                And the crisis is from there that Russia cannot print its money more than it has currency reserves. And the currency was systematically withdrawn by the West. That's when Russia shows a figosik in a nose, then we will have a real picture. Not so long to wait
                1. baltika-18 14 September 2015 12: 50 New
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                  Quote: jjj
                  . That's when Russia shows a figosik in a nose,

                  jjj, you either don’t understand the point at all or you’re just a propagandist. The “budget rule” made it possible to replenish the country's gold and currency reserves, and the American “treasuries” today are one of the most liquid currency assets. And despite the low oil prices and a general decrease in the quantity Russia continues to buy them. In May this year there was an increase of $ 4.1 billion. The reason for this was oil in the corridor of 60-70 dollars. Naturally, with oil in the corridor of 45-50 there can be no talk of any traders , they also have to be thrown off.
                  Quote: jjj
                  Yes, there is more money in the budget. Budget execution is in surplus

                  That’s generally “dolbokluivism.” Talk about a surplus, with a deficit according to the latest data of a trillion rubles. fool
                  1. jjj
                    jjj 14 September 2015 13: 19 New
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                    Quote: baltika-18
                    jjj, you either don’t understand the point at all, or you’re just a propagandist. "

                    I don’t get money from the State Department. I am not familiar with Surkov
                    1. baltika-18 14 September 2015 16: 14 New
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                      Quote: jjj
                      I don’t get money from the State Department. I am not familiar with Surkov

                      Then the option "I don’t understand shit, but I’m always right." What is the name of this you know? The people give a very clear definition, though obscene. hi
                      1. jjj
                        jjj 14 September 2015 19: 16 New
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                        But unlike some, I do not scrub Russia
                      2. baltika-18 14 September 2015 19: 49 New
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                        Quote: jjj
                        But unlike some, I do not scrub Russia

                        And I criticize the system existing in the country, because I believe that this system of economic relations in the country leads to its destruction.
                      3. namer 14 September 2015 20: 18 New
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                        Quote: baltika-18
                        And I criticize the system existing in the country, because I believe that this system of economic relations in the country leads to its death

                        The start-up of the first string of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline is shifting

                        Gazprom explains this with the political crisis in Turkey. Since the interim government is now there, the signing of the agreement is postponed, the Russian concern explained. It was originally planned that the first string of the gas pipeline would be launched at the end of next year.
                        Earlier reports appeared in the press that the signing of the agreement was being delayed because of the position of the Turkish side, which does not agree with gas prices.

                        this can be added to the canceled Yu.Potok, frozen Siberian Power, the problematic Altai, and now everyone, like the Chukchi and tambourines, began to jump about Sev.potka -2.
                        billions and billions spent on unrealized projects, what? Not to develop domestic industry, but to swing and swing to the west.
            2. namer 15 September 2015 07: 43 New
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              [quote = jjj] And the crisis is from there that Russia cannot print its money more than it has currency reserves. [/ quot]
              ??
              [quote = jjj]. And the West’s currency was systematically withdrawn [/ quote]
              belay
              [quote = jjj] That's when Russia shows a figosik in a nose, then we will have a real picture. Not so long to wait [/ quote]
              lol
    7. baltika-18 14 September 2015 11: 09 New
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      Quote: jjj
      The cost of Russian oil production is less than $ 10 per barrel.

      N-yes .... The cost price depends on the field, their geography is different, as well as production methods and types of wells. It ranges from $ 20 to $ 45 per barrel. The average for the oil industry in our country is $ 35. So what about what reserve of speech is out of the question in principle. We can reduce the cost of production for a number of deposits even below $ 10 per barrel, but for this we need to do nothing: nationalize all energy in the country, all transport, all raw materials industry, etc. etc.And in simple terms, completely change the system
      1. jjj
        jjj 14 September 2015 12: 27 New
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        Quote: baltika-18
        . The average in the oil industry in our country is taken 35 dollars

        And the executive director of the Russian Fuel Union, Grigory Sergienko, calls the cost in 4-7 dollars per barrel. Maximum price at new deposits - 16 dollars
        1. baltika-18 14 September 2015 16: 09 New
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          Quote: jjj
          And the executive director of the Russian Fuel Union Grigory Sergienko

          A former cop who became an overbearing superman in an oil industry overnight, you can believe him if you want, but this is just his dreams and desires of similar people. The truth of life is much harsher. We will judge the future when the oil really drops to 20 and for some time it will last in the corridor 20-30. But for our economic system it will be very sucks already in the corridor 40-45 along Brent.
        2. namer 14 September 2015 19: 37 New
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          Quote: jjj
          And the executive director of the Russian Fuel Union, Grigory Sergienko, calls the cost in 4-7 dollars per barrel. Maximum price at new deposits - 16 dollars

          can you reference?
          1. baltika-18 14 September 2015 20: 02 New
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            Quote: namer
            can you reference?

            It won’t give, because it’s crap. The cost price in the oil industry is an interesting thing. In our country, the cost price (I emphasize with the current system) is 10-15 dollars if oil is sold directly from the well and near it, but this is nowhere in the world. The cost includes transportation and oil service. And the oil service in our country is purely foreign, they ditched their own at full zero, when, damn it, they got up from their knees. And it’s all in currency. Yes, and the transportation to hell is absorbing money, because toilets are needed toilets, damn it with heated. So 35 average is the harsh truth of life.
            1. namer 14 September 2015 20: 12 New
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              Quote: baltika-18
              It will not, because crap

              It is clear that it will not.
              hi
            2. padded jacket 14 September 2015 20: 18 New
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              Quote: baltika-18
              It will not, because it’s crap.

              Is it really so? Or do you personally produce oil and you know the price for sure?
              Cost of oil production by world countries in 2015 in US dollars
              Countries of the world Cost of 1 barrel
              USA (shale oil) 32
              USA (shelf of the Mexican Sea) 25
              Norway (North Sea) 17
              Canada (bitumen oil) 16
              Russia (new deposits) 16
              Nigeria 11
              Mexico 9
              Venezuela (bitumen oil) 9
              Algeria 8
              Libya 7
              Russia (ongoing projects) 6
              Kazakhstan 6
              Iran 5
              Saudi Arabia 4
              http://bs-life.ru/makroekonomika/sebestoimost-dobichi-nefti2015.html
              1. namer 14 September 2015 20: 22 New
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                Quote: quilted jacket
                Quote: baltika-18
                It will not, because it’s crap.

                Is it really so? Or do you personally produce oil and you know the price for sure?
                Cost of oil production by world countries in 2015 in US dollars
                Countries of the world Cost of 1 barrel
                USA (shale oil) 32
                USA (shelf of the Mexican Sea) 25
                Norway (North Sea) 17
                Canada (bitumen oil) 16
                Russia (new deposits) 16
                Nigeria 11
                Mexico 9
                Venezuela (bitumen oil) 9
                Algeria 8
                Libya 7
                Russia (ongoing projects) 6
                Kazakhstan 6
                Iran 5
                Saudi Arabia 4
                http://bs-life.ru/makroekonomika/sebestoimost-dobichi-nefti2015.html

                What is the potential for continued oil decline.
                yes, 20 bucks a barrel is 300% fat (for Rosneft), and for Saudi in general.
                Strange, what is Venezuela in such a priest?
                There are few people, a lot of oil. The price of production is 9 bucks per barrel. laughing
                And someone spoke of a FAIR price of 80 bucks. belay
                Strange, Vatnik, if you were selling your watermelons at a mark-up of 10000% - would you say the same for a fair price?
  2. lablizn 14 September 2015 10: 14 New
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    Artificially, this means that the price does not correspond to the nominal value of the goods in hard cash equivalent. Unfortunately, now this equivalent is not gold, but a green piece of paper, which only one country has the right to print and publish around the world.
    Everything else is from the evil one.
    Of course, against the backdrop of a global slowdown in the development of major economies, demand must inevitably decline,
    but objectively not twice.
    1. namer 14 September 2015 10: 29 New
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      Quote: lablizn
      Artificially, this means that the price does not correspond to the nominal value of the goods in hard cash equivalent

      The words are beautiful, but the question is, and 150 bucks. Is that the real price?
      Quote: lablizn
      Of course, against the backdrop of a global slowdown in the development of major economies, demand must inevitably decline,
      but objectively not twice.

      Dependence is not direct - demand is price.
    2. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 20: 47 New
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      Quote: lablizn
      Artificially, this means that the price does not correspond to the nominal value of the goods in hard cash equivalent. Unfortunately, this equivalent is not gold right now.
      Strictly speaking, there is no price that matches something. There was no way to buy bread for the same gold in besieged Leningrad ...

      The question is that the United States and other crappy democrats can afford to fit a couple of aircraft carriers to any OPEC countries. Which allows them to dictate prices to oil producers ...
      1. namer 14 September 2015 21: 23 New
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        Quote: VseDoFeNi
        The question is that the United States and other crappy democrats can afford to fit a couple of aircraft carriers to any OPEC countries. Which allows them to dictate prices to oil producers.

        And when did they push? when was oil 150 or 40 each?
  • brelok 14 September 2015 11: 11 New
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    Quote: Barboskin
    The fall in prices is still temporary, now the weakest will be removed from the market, and then those same 150-200 per barrel will be trampled. In general, this fall in prices is artificial.

    "Low prices will remove players who cannot survive with cheap oil." These are the main words in the whole text. And the most interesting time for light oil has passed! Prime cost everywhere has grown significantly, and many believe that the oil industry will sell it at a loss.
  • Alexl 14 September 2015 12: 07 New
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    Quote: Barboskin
    The fall in prices is still temporary, now the weakest will be removed from the market, and then those same 150-200 per barrel will be trampled. In general, this fall in prices is artificial.

    OPEC will remove Russia or Russia OPEC?
    1. jjj
      jjj 14 September 2015 12: 33 New
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      Rosneft has a large number of canned wells with cheap oil. Xnumx dollars can survive
      1. Hon
        Hon 14 September 2015 13: 07 New
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        Quote: jjj
        Rosneft has a large number of canned wells with cheap oil. Xnumx dollars can survive

        Rosneft certainly comes
      2. namer 15 September 2015 07: 47 New
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        Quote: jjj
        Rosneft has a large number of canned wells with cheap oil. Xnumx dollars can survive

        You are sure ?
        Why keep them canned?
        Of course, you can throw even more oil on the market - then the price will fall more accordingly.
  • marlin1203 14 September 2015 15: 43 New
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    Yes, there are no weaknesses here. There is only shale or hard-to-reach oil. And then how the price starts to rise and they come to life again will gradually. There is only one trend, but it is long-term: oil is a non-renewable resource. Old deposits are depleted. So in the distant future, supply drops and price increases are all the same. And now, while everyone is pumping oil like mad, without looking at each other, and even Iran is connecting, we will have what we have.
  • twviewer 14 September 2015 18: 29 New
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    $ 5 cost price seriously?
    How oil is actually extracted in Russia.
  • astronom1973n 14 September 2015 06: 13 New
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    It becomes sad that the great country of Russia, with bated breath, is watching the fluctuation of the cost of an oil barrel ... Or what the refinancing rate will be in the states .... When will the Arabs and the mattresses look into our mouths? When will we raise our agriculture. And we will not buy Argentinean beef? And the electronics in terms of the element base and everything else ... Probably there is no interest in certain circles in this. It is certainly easier to buy and cheaper. Why spend your (stolen from the people ) on industry, you won’t get gesheft like from foreigners for brand promotion, and you won’t have any instant profit during the construction., and therefore there will be no English modest mansion and watches and kids on pistons and maybach ...
    1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 06: 30 New
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      Quote: astronom1973n
      It becomes sad that the great country of Russia, with bated breath, is watching the fluctuation of the cost of an oil barrel.

      This situation was due to the dismemberment of the USSR by corrupt brainless communists in 1991, which (the USSR) thus lost the Cold War or battle to the West, if you like.

      From this we need to learn a lesson - DO NOT lose the war !!! Neither cold nor hot!
      1. Penetrator 14 September 2015 07: 08 New
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        Quote: VseDoFeNi

        This situation was due to the dismemberment of the USSR by corrupt brainless communists in 1991.

        Those who condoned the collapse of the Union were anyone, but not communists. The actions of the then party "elites" were directly contrary to communist ideology and moral standards.
        1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 07: 12 New
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          Quote: Penetrator
          Those who condoned the collapse of the Union were anyone, but not communists. The actions of the then party "elites" were directly contrary to communist ideology and moral standards.

          “Well, what did you do, as if enchanted, Communists, they differed from others by the presence of a party card in their pocket and nothing more. And do not idealize them, these are ordinary people, not superhuman. »© VseDoFeNi.
          There is a party card - a communist, no, no and no trial.
          1. Oleg14774 14 September 2015 08: 39 New
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            Quote: VseDoFeNi
            communists they were different

            Watch the movie "Communist" and there you will see who the real communist is and who the chameleon mows under them. I already wrote, if you stick a label on Mars for constipation, he will not become a gelding. Similarly, if a person has a party ticket, but a mishandled Cossack, then he is mishandled. Ideology and actions determine the essence. Even the current Communist Party is essentially not a Communist Party.
            1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 04 New
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              Quote: Oleg147741
              Watch the movie "Communist" and there you will see who the real communist is,

              And look - Kill Bill, you decide that in Japan still chopped with swords
              Quote: Oleg147741
              I already wrote, if you stick a label on Mars for constipation, he will not become a gelding.

              And who was (in your opinion) a real communist?
              Quote: Oleg147741
              Ideology and actions determine the essence

              Apparently the ideology of communism is so utopian and unviable that it has not taken root in any country.
              “Or will you again begin to explain the gathering of traitors and not those communites, but already on a global scale?”
              1. dmb
                dmb 14 September 2015 14: 06 New
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                And what do you personally do not like about the communist ideology and what do you offer in return? The hero of the film "Communist" by the way had a real prototype, and not one. Moreover, regardless of nationality. But those who donate their lives not for their own loot, but disinterestedly for the cause of capitalism, I somehow do not recall.
            2. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 09: 12 New
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              -5
              Quote: Oleg147741
              Watch the movie "Communist" and there you will see who the real communist is and who the chameleon mows under them.

              I don’t have to look, I myself received recommendations from the party organizers of the workshop and production, but the valiant Komsomol committee opened my eyes to reality. Then I did not join the Communist Party. What I do not regret.
              Assess the difference - the movie itself.
              1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 20 New
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                Quote: VseDoFeNi
                I don’t have to look, I myself received recommendations from the party organizers of the workshop and production,

                So how is it ? You and him (in 91) fought on the barricades to death (well, like a communist in the film)?
                Quote: VseDoFeNi
                but the valiant Komsomol committee opened my eyes to reality.

                Well, yes, Komsomol members are future Communists - what kind of nonsense are you writing?
                Quote: VseDoFeNi
                Then I did not join the Communist Party.

                laughing
                So I’ll tell you a secret - Komsomol members then, these are the current oligarchs now - as always, you were deceived, and you watch all the movies - AND BELIEVE laughing
                Quote: VseDoFeNi
                Assess the difference - the movie itself.

                In a parallel universe, films define reality laughing
            3. Nikolay K 14 September 2015 10: 11 New
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              This means that the Soviet government, led by the Communist Party for 70 years, could not raise normal Communists even among its leaders. What do you think this is talking about?
            4. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 11: 11 New
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              Quote: Oleg147741
              Watch the movie "Communist"

              At the end of the 80s of the 20th century, the Politburo and the Central Committee of the CPSU re-qualified as capitalists by robbing the people of the USSR, and it’s better not to remember the Communists, it’s enough to fool people with their propaganda like “The Communist” film.
              1. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 16: 07 New
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                Quote: saturn.mmm
                stop fooling people with their propaganda type film "Communist".

                The ideological inspirer of the funeral of socialism in the USSR was Alexander Yakovlev, a member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU, he worked for 10 years in Canada and then involved Gorbachev.
                The Communists for 70 years pros..li Russian Empire which the kings collected for 500 years.
                Many blame Stalin's industrialization for achievement, but somehow keep silent about industry and the scientific school of the Russian Empire, where the Tsiolkovsky, Sikorsky, Popovs and many others came from.
                You can believe in God or you can in the movie "Communist", faith is the only thing that a person does freely.
      2. Das Boot 14 September 2015 08: 19 New
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        Quote: VseDoFeNi
        This situation was due to the dismemberment of the USSR

        But before the dismemberment of the USSR, this situation was not? Did not follow
        Quote: astronom1973n
        with bated breath

        for commodity quotes?
      3. Oleg14774 14 September 2015 08: 36 New
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        Quote: VseDoFeNi
        brainless communists

        Read stupid comments did not.
        1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 09: 13 New
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          -10
          Quote: Oleg147741
          Read stupid comments did not.

          Pluschikov you come across. laughing
    2. the polar 14 September 2015 08: 38 New
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      Quote: astronom1973n
      Why spend your money (stolen from the people) on industry, you won’t get gesheft like from foreigners for brand promotion and there will be no instant profit during the construction. And that means there will be no English modest mansion and watches and kids on pistons and maybach .. .

      And while they are still yelling at the people with hoarse voices, "hey you, don’t dare to rock our boat, get the nits away from us!"
  • Tatarname 14 September 2015 06: 15 New
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    Shale companies in the United States began to close one by one and sell off property for reckoning with creditors. OPEC also wants more money, it is necessary to develop new deposits. The price will again come to real performance, wait a short time.
    1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 06: 33 New
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      Quote: Tatarname
      new deposits need to be developed. The price will again come to real performance, wait a short time.

      No need to develop. All this consumptive bacchanalia leads to the destruction of nature - our only habitat!

      A person on average consumes 430 g of oxygen per day and exhales 800 g of carbon dioxide. One hectare of green space absorbs approximately the same amount of carbon dioxide as 200 people exhale, while releasing 80 kg of oxygen per day ..
      We in cars deal with gas and air. A mixture in which 1 kg of gasoline vapor accounts for 15 kg of air (with a standard oxygen content in it) is called normal. 1 kg of oxygen are burned per 3 kg of gasoline.
      1. mirag2 14 September 2015 06: 48 New
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        The law of conservation of energy has not been canceled - in one place it has departed, in another it has arrived. If in a rich American society it always arrives, where does it decrease?
        First, it left in Iraq, then in Libya. There weren’t enough weak countries, now it should go away with us, but we moved the arrows to Ukraine. Let the State Department stay at the gates there for now. We won’t let the crowd of gopot (“femen”, “art group war "," Pussy-Wright ") and" military experts "such as the felgenhauer biologist. Defend our brains and mentality.
        1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 07: 57 New
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          Quote: mirag2
          Protect our brains and mentality.

          Our mentality is not on the consumption of mesh, not scrubbed in wells.

          That's where he is, our mentality: http://sozvezdie.edu.yar.ru/elektronnaya_biblioteka/napravleniya/hudozhestvenno_
          minus_esteticheskoe_na_46 / narodnie_russkie_skazki._tom_1.pdf
          1. Kingcobra 14 September 2015 08: 26 New
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            Quote: VseDoFeNi
            Our mentality is not on the consumption of mesh, not scrubbed in wells.

            if not, why is everyone so monitoring the price of oil? Maybe more so than not?
            1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 09: 19 New
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              Quote: Katasonov V.Yu.
              The main resource of a modern market economy is this. He can boil anything.

              And I will subscribe under these words.
      2. RiverVV 14 September 2015 08: 18 New
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        Comrade, didn’t you think where the plants put the carbon formed during their utilization of carbon dioxide? They let him on their own growth. And when the plant dies - what does it do? Rots. And when rotting, what stands out? The same dioxide and methane.
        The law of conservation has not been canceled. How much carbon the plant took, so much it will give. And the Carboniferous period is long gone.
        1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 20: 36 New
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          Quote: RiverVV
          Comrade, didn’t you think where the plants put the carbon formed during their utilization of carbon dioxide? They let him on their own growth. And when the plant dies - what does it do? Rots. And when rotting, what stands out? The same dioxide and methane.

          That is, the city smelly air poisoned by car exhaust is the same as in the forest thicket? Oh well...
          1. RiverVV 15 September 2015 11: 47 New
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            Comrade, you do not know ... Carbon dioxide does not smell and in concentrations that do not lead to an increase in its content in the blood, it is not dangerous to humans. The smell of the urban atmosphere is provided mainly by unsaturated hydrocarbons, unburned fuel residues. But in general, the percentage of the atmosphere in the city and in the forest differs very slightly, within a couple of percent.

            Do an experiment. Come to the swamp in the woods on a hot day. I guarantee: the city air will seem clean and fresh to you.
            1. VseDoFeNi 16 September 2015 09: 21 New
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              Quote: RiverVV
              Kamrad, you do not know ...

              Where are we ...


              Etc.

              Man throughout history has not created anything that would not harm us directly or indirectly.
    2. Nikolay K 14 September 2015 07: 35 New
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      Yes, you, my friend, an optimist.
    3. the polar 14 September 2015 08: 53 New
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      Quote: Tatarname
      Price again will come to real performance, wait a short time.

      They will not come. Because the crisis is global and complex. The crisis of overproduction, which led to a decrease in consumer demand, hit the financial market, causing a financial crisis, which in turn hit production again, further exacerbating its problems. US attempts to increase oil production and lower energy costs to revitalize the manufacturing sector led to a drop in oil prices and a crisis in the oil industry and related engineering industries, which again exacerbated the financial crisis, which in turn hit the consumer market again and further on manufacturing industries. A sharp half-year increase in oil prices will only lead to another round of the crisis and lower oil demand.
      1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 24 New
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        Quote: Polar
        US attempts to increase oil production and reduce energy costs to revitalize the manufacturing sector led to a drop in oil prices and a crisis in the oil industry and related engineering industries, which again exacerbated the financial crisis

        There is no crisis in the US, stop singing mantras.
        A low oil price is good for the United States, count how many grandmas they saved
        Quote: Polar
        A sharp half-year increase in oil prices will only lead to another round of the crisis and lower oil demand.

        The price cannot rise with a decrease in demand - this is an axiom.
        1. Nikolay K 14 September 2015 10: 17 New
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          The price may rise with a decrease in demand, if, for example, supply has fallen even more. Especially for the oil market, the traditional laws of supply and demand are not so obvious (due to political influence). For example, we just observed a multiple DECREASE in oil prices with Rising demand (last year, global oil consumption has increased).
          1. namer 14 September 2015 10: 31 New
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            Quote: Nikolai K
            Yen may increase with a decrease in demand, if, for example, supply fell even more.

            Then it comes down to one thing - the supply has decreased - the rest (what you wrote) is not relevant
            Quote: Nikolai K
            Especially for the oil market, the traditional laws of supply and demand are not so obvious

            Just as obvious. much more obvious than gas. There are practically no long-term contracts in oil
            Quote: Nikolai K
            For example, we just observed a multiple DECREASE in oil prices with Rising demand (last year, global oil consumption has increased).

            Demand has fallen, and even if not, supply has grown very strongly.
        2. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 11: 39 New
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          Quote: namer
          The price cannot rise with a decrease in demand - this is an axiom.

          Low price can increase demand, it usually happens.
          Still, it’s so bold to say that shale oil isn’t worth it in the United States, wait and see, they have been producing it since 2012, they’ve been producing too short a period, it’s unlikely that everything will go very smoothly, Iran’s entry into the market will definitely lower the price, but how will Iran get extra they will spend money on restoring Shiite positions in the Middle East, so that there will be no peace there for a long time, the Russians didn’t waste money and dampen their economy, in essence, they can compensate for oil losses through agricultural products, though now the circus’s government has some that do not inspire optimism.
        3. the polar 14 September 2015 11: 50 New
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          Quote: namer

          There is no crisis in the US, stop singing mantras.
          A low oil price is good for the United States, count how many grandmas they saved

          Already about 70% of the “shale companies” that have received loans worth hundreds of billions have gone bankrupt with a drop in oil prices, which has aggravated the financial problems of banks. All the time you have to start the "printing press" and keep zero rates. Reduced consumer demand in global markets is cutting US exports, despite cheap oil and increasing the debt overhang on the financial system. A further drop in oil prices will kill the oil equipment manufacturing sector and associated producer chains.
    4. Das Boot 14 September 2015 09: 08 New
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      Quote: Tatarname
      US shale companies start closing one after another

      hydraulic fracturing technology has been modernized in the USA, the cost of shale will be reduced. They talk about the "second shale revolution." So, I would not rush to conclusions.
      1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 29 New
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        Quote: Das Boot
        US modernized fracturing technology, the cost of shale will be reduced. They talk about the "second shale revolution." So, I would not rush to conclusions.

        We always hurried with conclusions, here is an example for 2013
        It is increasingly unprofitable for American companies to mine shale oil: the market is saturated with raw materials, prices are falling, and the development of new fields becomes economically inexpedient

        American oil and gas companies are in a fever. In the past few years, they have made an impressive leap. Oil production in the United States grew by 43% compared to 2008, to 6,5 million barrels per day - this is the highest figure for the country in several decades. Such dynamics of the industry was provided by two of the most successful young fields - Bakken and Eagle Ford. In 2012 alone, 50 leaders of the American oil industry invested $ 186 billion in the development of these and other projects, Ernst & Young analysts calculated. This is an absolute record for the United States, more than 20% higher than the volume of investments in 2011. But can this money be returned?

        On the verge of profitability

        Given all the costs, many fields are already operating on the verge of profitability. and even slight adjustment of quotes risks making them ineffective. A decrease in oil prices by 10-15% can put an end to the American oil boom.

        This year, WTI brand oil is balancing in the range $ 88-98 per barrel. Over the past two years this corridor amounted to $ 77-109. While objective factors speak, rather, in favor of further price increases. What can make them move in the opposite direction? First of all, the escalation of the global crisis. While the United States is experiencing only a miserable semblance of economic growth, an increase in interest rates and sovereign bond yields can quickly lead to more difficult conditions for access to borrowed resources and contribute to price collapse. European problems remain unresolved, and the risks of a recession in export-oriented countries are growing.

        Soothsayers laughing Well, evaluate - after 2 years, or
        Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that the global economy will collapse if oil prices remain at $ 80 per barrel, RIA Novosti reported.

        According to Putin, shale oil projects in the United States are cost-effective with an oil price of $ 80. "If world prices remain at $ 80, then all production will collapse, the main oil producing countries also have a budget of $ 80 with a little, under $ 90 per barrel ... there are adjustments, they are related to objective circumstances," Putin said.

        Putin is confident that in the near future "the price of oil will equalize, adjust, especially since no serious market participants are interested in keeping it at a fairly low bar of 80, lower or slightly higher than dollars"
        More details: http://tengrinews.kz/russia/putin-mirovaya-ekonomika-ruhnet-tsene-nefti-80-dolla
        rov-263605 /
        Any use of materials is allowed only if there is a hyperlink to Tengrinews.kz
        1. RiverVV 14 September 2015 10: 51 New
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          Well so the world economy lives and prospers! We all see it. Exchange shakes the third week.
        2. anip 14 September 2015 12: 14 New
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          Quote: namer
          Soothsayers, well, evaluate - after 2 years, or
          Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that the global economy will collapse if oil prices remain at $ 80 per barrel, RIA Novosti reported.

          Yeah, there is such an expert predictor. True, all his predictions are more like fairy tales.
    5. anip 14 September 2015 12: 11 New
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      Quote: Tatarname
      OPEC also wants more money, it is necessary to develop new deposits. Price again will come to real performance, wait a short time.

      But the real indicators are what, what is the price of oil? Maybe the price of oil, which now is the real indicator? Or maybe the real indicator is $ 20?
  • papont64 14 September 2015 06: 15 New
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    Remember February 1999, oil of $ 10,19 per barrel.
  • Name 14 September 2015 06: 20 New
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    With all RESPECT to Oleg Chuvakin hi, but, and "in a cooler" times were. Russia came out with a profit. Is always. And having started an open confrontation with the Anglo-Saxons in 2014, I am sure that the scenario of the collapse in hydrocarbon prices has been taken into account.
    1. anip 14 September 2015 12: 19 New
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      Quote: name
      And starting an open confrontation with the Anglo-Saxons in 2014, I’m sure that the scenario for the collapse of hydrocarbon prices was taken into account.

      And we took into account even more that under the brand of sanctions, it will be possible to raise prices, reduce salaries and jobs, because Putin's economic system has failed and it is necessary to somehow compensate for its own failures.
      In fact, everything is in the way of the guarantor: the State Department, the West, low oil prices, sanctions, his people - just like a bad dancer, all of Faberge is in the way.
  • Cerg401 14 September 2015 06: 27 New
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    Actually, just a year has passed, and the price reduction is artificial. Oil always falls periodically, for example, in 1999, under B.N. Yeltsin, the price reached $ 9-13 per barrel, and when V.V. Putin in 2000, oil has risen in price 3 times, up to 30-40 dollars per barrel and we have begun to rise in the "economy". That is, after the fall, sooner or later there will be growth. There is no alternative to oil and never will be, only it must be used wisely, and not burned as fuel. Let's wait a bit and sit on the oil needle again.
    1. Mart 14 September 2015 06: 55 New
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      Quote: Cerg401
      There is no alternative to oil, and there never will be

      Surprisingly bold statement. laughing In essence, the denial of progress. Cave dwellers, too, tens of thousands of years ago believed that the fire must be maintained constantly, otherwise it would go out and you would have to wait for the lightning and the forest fire.
      1. Ruslan67 14 September 2015 07: 01 New
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        Quote: Mart
        the fire must be maintained constantly, or it will go out and you will have to wait for lightning and a forest fire.

        Well, in some countries so far, if the banana has not fallen, it means a poor harvest. request laughing
        Hi drinks
      2. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 07: 10 New
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        Quote: Mart
        In fact, the denial of progress.

        Do you remember by heart all the phones of your friends and acquaintances, like the other necessary phones that most of us knew before the introduction of mobile communications?
        Progress, however. wink

        “Megacities are parasites on the body of the planet. "They consume resources, and in return give only landfills, poisoned water and air." K. Priestaychuk.

        That is, littering your planet and destroying the natural habitat, is it progress?
        1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 06 New
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          Quote: VseDoFeNi
          Do you remember by heart all the phones of your friends and acquaintances, like the other necessary phones that most of us knew before the introduction of mobile communications?
          Progress, however.

          So there were fewer phones
          What are you driving? By bike or horse? Progress
      3. Cerg401 14 September 2015 09: 16 New
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        There is no alternative to oil, and what will happen after 200 years, when we can’t extract hydrocarbons, it is quite possible that the cave age will come, but most likely for other reasons. How many civilizations have changed after the cave age is still not known, and our so-called progress, which is more than 100 years old, leads in my opinion to not very bright prospects.
        1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 45 New
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          Quote: Cerg401
          Oil alternatives

          300 years ago they thought the same thing - there is no alternative to firewood
    2. kuz363 14 September 2015 06: 58 New
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      Wait a little? How much is a month, a year, 10 years? And when, for example, after a year you go to the hospital for treatment, they will tell you - come with your medications, we have not been allocated because of a lack of money. And bring your food, we have no products. At work, if the state employee, they say - we are forced to delay the salary, the money has not arrived. Well, while working with a private trader you will run into staff reduction or the bankruptcy of a company
      1. Name 14 September 2015 07: 27 New
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        Quote: kuz363
        ... you’ll go to the hospital for treatment, they will tell you - come with your medications, they didn’t give us because of the lack of money. And bring your food, we have no products. At work, if the state employee, they say - we are forced to delay the salary, the money has not arrived. Well, while working with a private trader you will run into staff reduction or the bankruptcy of a company

        "Native" 90, however. There will be no repetition. And generally speaking:
      2. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 08: 04 New
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        Quote: kuz363
        Xnumx years?

        The West does not have so much time, they have time trouble.
        1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 45 New
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          Quote: VseDoFeNi
          Quote: kuz363
          Xnumx years?

          The West does not have so much time, they have time trouble.

          They have time trouble belay
          And what is it called for?
      3. The comment was deleted.
      4. Cerg401 14 September 2015 09: 19 New
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        Look at the fluctuations in oil prices over the years and figure out how long to wait.
  • ImPerts 14 September 2015 06: 30 New
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    With all due respect to the market, but these measures
    In a difficult situation, the authorities will have to impose restrictions on currency transactions, exporters will be obliged to sell all foreign exchange earnings, they will establish strict control over the movement of capital. Other recipes of Glazyev may also be in demand, including printing money as a source of financing for the investment process: “If you print money for speculators who throw it in the foreign exchange market, then there will be inflation. If you print money under the growth of productive investment, there will be no inflation. Take the United States, the European Union. With a giant emission, inflation is at zero. That is, if you follow the targeted use of money, you give them as much as you need to develop production and investment without an inflationary effect. ”

    closer to me than the "invisible hand" of the market.
    1. Nikolay K 14 September 2015 07: 49 New
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      Only the sense of them will already be scarce. These are pre-default measures that help protect against bankruptcy, but practically do not affect the economy. As the saying goes, it’s too late to drink the barge when the kidneys are refused. The Central Bank needs now, as long as there is an gold and foreign currency reserves, to abandon the floating rate and tie the ruble to a basket of leading currencies in order to pay off the currency-speculative wave. Next, sharply reduce the key rate to 5-7%, because we will have a hard currency and moderate the appetites of banks, providing loans to the economy at 7-10% per annum. Then economic growth will begin in Russia even at current oil prices.
      1. ImPerts 14 September 2015 08: 58 New
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        Already passed it. Did not help. Kudrin’s favorite move.
      2. the polar 14 September 2015 09: 08 New
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        Quote: Nikolai K
        Next, sharply reduce the key rate to 5-7%, because we will have a hard currency and moderate the appetites of banks, providing loans to the economy at 7-10% per annum. Then economic growth will begin in Russia even at current oil prices.

        Not only to moderate the appetites of private banks, but to introduce state planning and create a network of state-owned banks lending under 3-5%, only the creation of new large agricultural cooperatives, and not private latifundia, the construction of new plants in machine tools, machine building, microelectronics, public transport, etc.
        1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 30 New
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          Quote: Polar
          but to introduce state planning and create a network of state-owned banks lending at 3-5% only the creation of new large agricultural cooperatives

          cool, just how?
          Quote: Polar
          and not private latifundia, the construction of new factories in machine tools, mechanical engineering, microelectronics, the production of public transport and

          and all that?
        2. Nikolay K 14 September 2015 10: 25 New
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          In priority sectors, credit can also be at 3-5% under the conditions of subsidizing state rates. Just don’t have to come up with stories about state-owned banks, we already have Sberbank, VTB, Vnesheconombank, where the state has a controlling stake. The government, if desired, can push the credit market through them. And agricultural cooperatives are generally fantasy. Have you been in a village for a long time? The overwhelming majority of agricultural cooperatives have already gone bankrupt, since their leadership was stupidly plundering the collective (and therefore nobody's) property of the cooperative. There should be either farms or large agro-industrial holdings.
          1. namer 14 September 2015 10: 33 New
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            Quote: Nikolai K
            In priority sectors, credit can also be at 3-5% under the conditions of subsidizing state rates.

            Of course you can, only money does not come from nowhere. by bidding, the state will pull money from other budget items
            Quote: Nikolai K
            Just don’t have to come up with stories about state-owned banks, we already have Sberbank, VTB, Vnesheconombank, where the state has a controlling stake.

            So what ?
            Quote: Nikolai K
            Have you been in a village for a long time? The overwhelming majority of agricultural cooperatives have already gone bankrupt, since their leadership was stupidly plundering the collective (and therefore nobody's) property of the cooperative.

            Nothing, import substitution is coming
            Quote: Nikolai K
            There should be either farms or large agro-industrial holdings.

            And who is the owner?
            1. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 12: 09 New
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              Quote: namer
              Of course you can, only money does not come from nowhere. by bidding, the state will pull money from other budget items

              From the article on imports of agricultural products will release funds.
        3. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 12: 00 New
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          Quote: Polar
          Not only to moderate the appetites of private banks, but to introduce state planning and create a network of state-owned banks lending at 3-5%, only the creation of new large agricultural cooperatives, and not private latifundia,

          Recently, Dmitry Patrushev, the head of the Russian Agricultural Bank, reported to Putin, who claimed that under state subsidies loans to agricultural producers were issued at 5-6%.
  • tyzyaga 14 September 2015 06: 37 New
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    Russia's budget deficit from falling oil prices can only be filled by an increase in arms sales. We’ll say 50 percent ...:) That is, you need to be number 1 on arms exports, and by a wide margin! This, by the way, will be useful for our military-industrial complex. in conditions of sanctions and crisis.
    1. Cerg401 14 September 2015 07: 07 New
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      To produce weapons and sell them on credit as they sell with us, we need considerable money. And there will be no money until oil prices rise, there is no where else to get it. The total budget of the Russian Federation for 80% consisted of revenues from the oil and gas sector (much less from gas than oil) and related industries working for the oil and gas industry.
      1. ImPerts 14 September 2015 08: 06 New
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        Quote: Cerg401
        To produce weapons and sell them on credit as they sell with us, we need considerable money. And there will be no money until oil prices rise, there is no where else to get

        Glazyev also proposes to limit free operations with currency, especially among currency exporters. He repeatedly wrote here that free currency exchange in western Germany was allowed after the 1953 year.
        The limitation of foreign exchange transactions will enable the inclusion of a printing press for lending to enterprises. Simultaneous control over the spending of this loan will not allow to spray on different accounts. Only payment for work related to the production of final products.
        1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 09 New
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          Quote: ImPerts
          Glazyev and proposes to limit free operations with currency

          Glazyev only does what he offers
          Quote: ImPerts
          He repeatedly wrote here that free currency exchange in western Germany was allowed after 1953.

          Then there was no global economy - now it is just a collapse.
          Quote: ImPerts
          The limitation of foreign exchange operations will enable the printing press for lending to enterprises

          Why
          Quote: ImPerts
          Only payment for work related to the production of final products.

          How will you control?
      2. tyzyaga 14 September 2015 12: 27 New
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        The total budget of the Russian Federation 80% consisted of revenues from the oil and gas sector

        If it’s 80, then it turns out that the gas 60, because. only 20% of the budget we have from oil))
        Well, actually this is not true, I read that all of our exports are like 68%.
    2. namer 14 September 2015 09: 07 New
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      Quote: tyzyaga
      Russia's budget deficit from falling oil prices, can only fill the increase in arms sales

      It remains only to find who will buy it for such amounts

      Quote: tyzyaga
      That is, you need to be number 1 in arms exports, and by a wide margin! By the way, this will be useful for our defense industry. Especially in conditions of sanctions and crisis.

      belay
      1. tyzyaga 14 September 2015 12: 18 New
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        It remains only to find who will buy it for such amounts

        Which ones? I wrote that it’s so much to increase export by only 50%? Iran, North Korea, South America ... Our politics are just so full of holes, bending!
  • Signaller 14 September 2015 06: 39 New
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    Our entire economic community is close to leadership, and the government itself always, I emphasize, will always say what they want to hear from it. If they say that everything will be worse, then they will be forced to work, carry out infrastructure changes, and raise their production. And who wants this ???? NO ONE except the people.
  • rotmistr60 14 September 2015 06: 53 New
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    High oil prices are weakening our government, as in an old ad: "We are sitting, and money is dripping." But low prices make you move a little and think with your head, and not focus on the west.
  • bmv04636 14 September 2015 06: 55 New
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    We’ll see in five years, and maybe even earlier how much oil will cost, and the most interesting thing is how to pay for it, we think, not only in dollars.
  • kuz363 14 September 2015 07: 07 New
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    Forecasts of officials who do not make excuses are their marriage at work. And marriage must be punished, because misleading the government and the people is a statewide crime. And often conscious. Well, how will the minister come to Putin and begin to paint a gloomy picture? So you can fly from office. Therefore, forced to draw rainbow paintings. But what is the punishment for repeated misses? Drive from office, by itself. But it’s not bad to answer with such a personal pocket for such an act in the form of a substantial fine. They are all rich people, millionaires. From them will not depart.
  • olimpiada15 14 September 2015 07: 16 New
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    I look at a selection of forecasts with deep irony (not in the sense of the author of the article, he made very indicative material, but in the sense of the authors of the forecasts).
    The situation with forecasts resembles a game of cheating cards, while players try to predict who will inflate whom by how much, without thinking about the fact that justice in this game does not exist in principle.
    In any case, the peoples of the countries of producers and consumers of energy resources will lose, and the organizers of this game will get the jackpot — they have a fat in any case, at least at an inflated price, even at a loss-making oil production.
  • Whowhy 14 September 2015 07: 41 New
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    In the words of Comrade Mendeleev: "You can drown and banknotes." The oil refining industry must be developed at least at the oil production level.
    “History teaches only that history does not teach anything” ... After all, once already Russia (USSR) has already been thrust into the face like a puppy puppy with this oil.
    If the ugliness cannot be stopped, then it must be headed - to think over a strategy and to collapse oil prices on the world market by ourselves ... lol
    1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 08: 06 New
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      Quote: whowhy
      The oil refining industry must be developed at least at the oil production level.

      And cut back on export sales. Autarchy, this is our everything.
    2. Das Boot 14 September 2015 08: 27 New
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      Quote: whowhy
      The oil refining industry must be developed at least at the oil production level.

      Take an interest in the efficient use of oil holes in the ground, and especially in the shelf. And compare with the output of the same Norway. If the processing will be "at the same level", then better is not necessary. In our well-fed years, oil camarilla was not invested in modernization or in the refining segment, and now they have iron and steel excuses - sanctions, have excommunicated us from loans and technologies.
      1. Das Boot 14 September 2015 08: 29 New
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        Quote: Das Boot
        Oil camarilla and in full years was not invested in modernization

        oh no, sorry, invested in the modernization of the Soviet refineries, promising an increase in the price of gas, that is, shifting costs to the domestic consumer. Is this normal?
  • Amurets 14 September 2015 08: 14 New
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    Yesterday there was a note, it seems on VO with exactly the same debriefing. Only taking into account the fact that Russia did not go into OPEC bondage. At the last OPEC summit, Sechin did not sign accession documents and Russia remained in observer status. And China said that all tenders for energy from October 01.10.2015, 2016 will be carried out only in RMB. And from January XNUMX, calculations will be carried out through its national CIPS system. Debugging of which has begun and should be completed by the end of the year. I will add that now Russia is mining the most oil on the planet. Therefore, OPEC wants to throw a noose on Russia.
    1. ImPerts 14 September 2015 09: 04 New
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      Quote: Amurets
      And China said that all tenders for energy from 01.10.2015 of the year will be held only in RMB

      It will be interesting)))

      Quote: Amurets
      And from January 2016, the calculations will be carried out through its national CIPS system.

      Right. So that the financial baton of the West does not threaten the economy.
    2. namer 14 September 2015 09: 14 New
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      Quote: Amurets
      Yesterday there was a note, it seems on VO with exactly the same debriefing. Only taking into account the fact that Russia did not go into OPEC bondage.

      Did OPEC offer Russia to join it? belay
      Quote: Amurets
      And China said that all tenders for energy from 01.10.2015/XNUMX/XNUMX will be held only in RMB.

      There won't be anything like it
      Quote: Amurets
      .An January 2016, calculations will be carried out through its national CIPS system. Debugging of which has begun and should be completed by the end of the year

      That's when it starts. then we'll talk, it’s too early to talk about it now and China (with all due respect to its size) cannot dictate terms (in RMB)
      RMB is not a convertible currency. What then to do with her?
      Quote: Amurets
      Russia produces the most oil on the planet. Therefore, OPEC wants to put a stranglehold on Russia.

      Yes, did not call OPEC Russia.
      Yes, and OPEC does not work at all.
      1. Amurets 15 September 2015 02: 33 New
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        Unfortunately, I didn’t find a link to the article about which I am sorry. Therefore, a free retelling. At the beginning of September 2015, during the preparation for the upcoming OPEC summit in November 2015, Sechin met with the Secretary General of OREK, at which for the second time after Algeria, it was proposed to change the observer status on the status of a member of OPEC. Sechin repeatedly refused. The meeting was not unofficially, like it was working.
    3. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 12: 18 New
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      Quote: Amurets
      I’ll add that now Russia is producing the most oil on the planet. Therefore, OPEC wants to put a stranglehold on Russia.

      The Americans are mining the most now.
  • srha 14 September 2015 08: 31 New
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    What a strange world? Why are the "optimists" for expensive oil? After all, cheap oil is good. You can cheaply transport, plow, produce, etc. But not here now. Why?
    1. ImPerts 14 September 2015 09: 10 New
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      Cheap oil benefits the "golden billion". It allows them to live cheaper by selling virtual services. Roughly speaking, producing for a unit, selling for 10, buying for the same unit.
      1. namer 14 September 2015 09: 36 New
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        Quote: ImPerts
        Cheap oil benefits the "golden billion".

        Of course, why not?
        Here is how it is more profitable for you to buy cheaply or at a cheap price?
        And why should the West be different?
        Quote: ImPerts
        It allows them to live cheaper by selling virtual services

        Interestingly, and import substitution for vertical services (going to develop) or something real?
        Everyone yells that the West has lost almost 100 billion belay , from sanctions - were these 100 billion for funeral services? Or for something real?
        Quote: ImPerts
        Roughly speaking, producing per unit, selling for 10, buying for the same unit.

        No, this is to buy raw materials, to produce a product from it. and then (to the seller of raw materials) to sell it (final product) is 100 times more expensive.
        Only the question should not be addressed to the West (which processes this raw material), but to Russia, and why it cannot produce this final product itself.
        1. anip 14 September 2015 12: 21 New
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          Quote: namer
          Everyone screams that the West has lost almost 100 billion from the sanctions - were these 100 billion for virtual services? Or for something real?

          I wonder how much Russia lost from the sanctions. Anyway, there was information that the EEC even increased export earnings.
          1. namer 14 September 2015 16: 10 New
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            Quote: anip
            I wonder how much Russia lost from the sanctions. Anyway, there was information that the EEC even increased export earnings

            In general, the West has lost, but judging by macroeconomic indicators, it is not at all critical.
        2. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 12: 33 New
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          Quote: namer
          And why should the West be different?

          Gorbachev was promised.
          1. namer 14 September 2015 16: 11 New
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            Quote: saturn.mmm
            Quote: namer
            And why should the West be different?

            Gorbachev was promised.

            Does Putin still believe? And who is the goof here?
    2. namer 14 September 2015 09: 15 New
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      Quote: srha
      What a strange world? Why are the "optimists" for expensive oil? Why?

      Because .... laughing
    3. Nikolay K 14 September 2015 10: 35 New
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      Because it’s good, it’s when your goods are expensive and the goods you buy are cheap. It just so happened that Russia is rich in oil and gas and it is obviously beneficial for it if these goods are sold at high prices.
      1. Hello 14 September 2015 11: 30 New
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        Quote: Nikolai K
        Because it’s good, it’s when your goods are expensive and the goods you buy are cheap. It just so happened that Russia is rich in oil and gas and it is obviously beneficial for it if these goods are sold at high prices.

        In my opinion, it is a shame for a country like Russia to be so dependent on oil and gas.
        1. anip 14 September 2015 12: 23 New
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          Quote: Hello
          In my opinion, it is a shame for a country like Russia to be so dependent on oil and gas.

          Hurray putriots will prove with foam at the mouth that this is not so, and poke the site "made with us".
        2. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 14: 35 New
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          Quote: Hello
          In my opinion, it is a shame for a country like Russia to be so dependent on oil and gas.

          In Israel, otherwise because there is no oil and gas, there is no choice but to work.
          1. namer 14 September 2015 16: 12 New
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            Quote: saturn.mmm
            In Israel, otherwise because there is no oil and gas, there is no choice but to work.

            It is not strange, but it is so in Israel, a huge lobby, on the topic of not selling gas abroad, precisely for the reason - grandmothers relax.
            1. Amurets 15 September 2015 02: 50 New
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              Here I completely agree with you. Maybe sanctions and embargoes will force them to get the final product from raw materials rather than selling raw materials abroad. For some reason, it is considered bad form to read the classics of Marxism-Leninism. But the capital of Marx and the development of capitalism in Russia of Lenin are the reference books of Western economists, and I forgot my works Chayanova.
  • Million 14 September 2015 08: 45 New
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    Not only should a country trade in resources, but also produce at least something other than weapons
  • imugn 14 September 2015 08: 59 New
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    Debt payment embargo can be introduced on oil embargo
    1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 09: 20 New
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      Quote: imugn
      Debt payment embargo can be introduced on oil embargo

      And for gas export. good
    2. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 09: 20 New
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      Quote: imugn
      Debt payment embargo can be introduced on oil embargo

      And for gas export in winter. good
    3. namer 14 September 2015 09: 50 New
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      Quote: imugn
      Debt payment embargo can be introduced on oil embargo

      Debt payment embargo - called default.
      By the way, now you imagine the situation, you always bought meat from some butcher and even gave him money on credit.
      But on one wonderful day, well, like a butcher didn’t look at you well, or just didn’t like you at all, you said you won’t buy from him again.
      To which he replied that for this here, the debt will not be returned to you.
      Your actions ?
      This is the same that you offer, only on a global scale.
      Remember, as a buyer, I can buy from anyone I want, you, as a seller, can only sell to someone you want - this is your personal right.
      But debt is a completely different scenario.
  • Xoyuschka 14 September 2015 09: 31 New
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    Of the entire article, perhaps the most valuable is emission under state projects with the most severe execution control. That is why they do not take such measures?
  • Professor 14 September 2015 10: 03 New
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    I do not understand why the forum people tensed up? Gasoline is getting cheaper every day, electricity is getting cheaper. Right now, bread is getting cheaper in stores.

    Give a barrel for twenty! good

    PS
    The price of a liter of gasoline will drop by 29 agorot
    According to the ITV Channel Ten, a liter of gasoline, with an octane rating of 95, will fall in price by 4.55% and, at self-service gas stations ...

    electricity is getting 6.2% cheaper
    Starting from sunset on September 12, the general electricity tariff is reduced by 6.8%, and electricity tariffs for households - by 6.2%.

    Bread cheaper in Israel
    The inter-ministerial commission, which includes representatives of the ministries of economy and finance, decided to lower, by 4,8%, the prices of grades of bread that are under state control.
    1. namer 14 September 2015 10: 34 New
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      Quote: Professor
      I do not understand why the forum people tensed up? Gasoline is getting cheaper every day, electricity is getting cheaper. Right now, bread is getting cheaper in stores.

      Give a barrel for twenty! good

      Oleg, in an alternative universe - everything rises in price laughing
      1. Professor 14 September 2015 10: 43 New
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        Quote: namer
        Oleg, in an alternative universe - everything rises in price

        In an alternate universe, oil rises in price - gas rises in price. Oil is getting cheaper - gas is getting more expensive. Are you sure they make gasoline from oil? wink
        1. anip 14 September 2015 12: 26 New
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          Quote: Professor
          In an alternate universe, oil rises in price - gas rises in price. Oil is getting cheaper - gas is getting more expensive. Are you sure they make gasoline from oil?

          It seems that in an alternative universe they make gasoline from the mediocrity of the leadership and the greed of the same leadership, coupled with the oligarchs. And mediocrity and greed are constantly growing.
    2. Hello 14 September 2015 11: 32 New
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      I support today refueling 6 shekels per liter. Two years ago, I never dreamed about this
      1. padded jacket 14 September 2015 12: 26 New
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        Quote: Hello
        I support today refueling 6 shekels per liter. Two years ago, I never dreamed about this

        That is, 95 liter in Israel costs 100 (one hundred) rubles per liter with our money?
        1. Hello 14 September 2015 13: 07 New
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          105.30 rubles.
    3. anip 14 September 2015 12: 24 New
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      Quote: Professor
      I do not understand why the forum people tensed up? Gasoline is getting cheaper every day, electricity is getting cheaper. Right now, bread is getting cheaper in stores.

      Well, I don’t know where this is happening. Probably in Israel. In Russia, everything is somehow more and more prices are rising and rising.
    4. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 14: 46 New
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      Quote: Professor
      The price of a liter of gasoline will drop by 29 agorot

      Nevertheless, it is three times more expensive than the Russian one.
      Quote: Professor
      Bread cheaper in Israel

      Russia buys about 4 billion agricultural products in Israel, respectively, more will buy your bread for the same money or the same amount for less money.
      1. Hello 14 September 2015 14: 50 New
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        Certainly more expensive but how much higher the salary.
        1. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 15: 12 New
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          Quote: Hello
          Certainly more expensive but how much higher the salary.

          It depends on who and where, and if on average it’s the same, three times for 2015, and before that it was twice.
          1. Hello 14 September 2015 15: 38 New
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            I don’t know how it is on average, but my father earns 35 thousand rubles as an engineer with a long experience, and in Israel I work as a driver without education and have 9000 shekels (153000 rubles)
            1. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 16: 31 New
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              Quote: Hello
              I don’t know how it is on average, but my father earns 35 thousand rubles as an engineer with a long experience, and in Israel I work as a driver without education and have 9000 shekels (153000 rubles)

              I have a friend in the construction team who works as an ordinary worker at an oil refinery in Russia and earns 90000 rubles each, it’s all not clear who got attached.
              1. Hello 14 September 2015 16: 56 New
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                What is inappropriately, I completely agree, I just visited my parents a month ago and according to them and the words of my friends, the prices went up quite well, but there is no salary at all. This is insulting, I would like the person who gave his profession for more than 30 years to have some kind of guarantee for old age, and that they depended not only on oil prices and pretzels of America.
                Best regards
        2. padded jacket 14 September 2015 15: 44 New
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          Quote: Hello
          Certainly more expensive but how much higher the salary.

          And taxes are higher.
          By the way, about your "export" to our country. Personally, he himself never bought Israeli muck, enemies cannot be supported.
          Russia reduced imports of Israeli goods by 29%
          For six months, the Israelis sold to Russia goods and services for only 380 million dollars. These data are contained in the analytical report of the Israeli Export Institute, an excerpt from which is published on Wednesday by TheMarker.
          Due to the depreciation of the ruble and the economic crisis in Russia, first of all, farmers suffer - agricultural products account for 44% of Israeli exports to Russia, and its purchases decreased in the first half by 18%.
          http://news.israelinfo.co.il/economy/57863
          1. padded jacket 14 September 2015 15: 52 New
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            And of course, as we all know from Israeli citizens in Israel, there are no thieves of corruption officers and various other budget robbers lol
            A 1,9 million bonus with a salary of 6400 shekels a month - how state money squanders
            Salary overruns in the public sector amounted to 11%. Such data are provided in the report for 2014, released today by the Office of the Supervision of Incomes of the Population.
            According to the report, in 2012-2013 the number of violations of financial discipline in municipal companies increased by 148%.
            For example, the employee of the MATANAS company in Ashdod was overpaid 200. 000 shekels, while, according to the documents, her salary was only 4200 shekels gross.
            http://cursorinfo.co.il/news/busines1/2015/09/06/bonus-v---milliona-pri-zarplate
            --shekeley-v-mesyac - kak-razbazarivayut-dengi-gosudarstva
      2. Professor 14 September 2015 15: 34 New
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        Quote: saturn.mmm
        Nevertheless, it is three times more expensive than the Russian one.

        Our government really makes money on gasoline. There are sky-high taxes.

        Quote: saturn.mmm
        Russia buys about 4 billion agricultural products in Israel, respectively, more will buy your bread for the same money or the same amount for less money.

        Israel buys soft grades of grain in Russia and Ukraine. Solid sells. Ruble cheaper faster than bread in Israel ...
        1. saturn.mmm 14 September 2015 16: 28 New
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          Quote: Professor
          The ruble is getting cheaper faster than bread in Israel ...

          So, Russia pays not rubles to Israel and Israel pays not dollars but dollars, the ruble is now practically in place, the Russian government did not bother and decided everything at the expense of the people most likely because of the defense industry, by the end of the year they might end up with a surplus, they also had fat years, but now they’re not a type of harvest, they will survive and adapt.
          Quote: Professor
          Our government really makes money on gasoline. There are sky-high taxes.

          We must understand the army for some reason.
          1. namer 14 September 2015 16: 41 New
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            Quote: saturn.mmm
            Hell, for some reason the army to support them can also be understood.

            And when buying a new car, you pay taxes on the floor of the tank crying
  • Kuzyakin15 14 September 2015 10: 24 New
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    How did you get it! And people like you didn’t ruin USSR?

    [quote = VseDoFeNi] and "[/ quote
    1. padded jacket 14 September 2015 12: 33 New
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      Quote: Kuzyakin15
      How did you get it! And people like you did not break up the USSR?

      You are absolutely right, it is people with a similar way of thinking and "bestial hatred" for our country - they tore and plundered the USSR.
      For them, only money is important, but the concepts of honor and conscience are not familiar to them at all.
      1. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 20: 53 New
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        Quote: quilted jacket
        You are absolutely right, it is people with a similar way of thinking and "bestial hatred" for our country - they tore and plundered the USSR.

        I have no hatred for Russia, unlike those who destroy it.
        Money would be important to me, I would not call for the nationalization of the banking system of Russia. Welcome http://referendumrusnod.ru/
  • provincial 14 September 2015 10: 25 New
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    What difference does oil become cheaper or more expensive, Russian gasoline in any case rises in price and no world prices affect it. "This is our cow and we will milk it," oil magnates of the Russian Federation.
    1. anip 14 September 2015 12: 28 New
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      Quote: provincial
      "This is our cow and we will milk it," oil magnates of the Russian Federation.

      These are our sheep and we will cut them - in general, all the magnates and the government.
    2. VseDoFeNi 14 September 2015 20: 55 New
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      You do not want to help nationalize the banking systemstarting with the Central Bank, bosom, strategic industriesincluding energy and transport. Return the state’s monopoly on foreign trade, prohibit the free movement of capital across the border. Return the state monopoly on the production and trade of alcohol and tobacco with a gradual reduction in their turnover to zero.
      Welcome http://referendumrusnod.ru/
  • Hens 14 September 2015 10: 27 New
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    Vova in the furnace.
  • sledge 14 September 2015 11: 34 New
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    Quote: beer-youk
    What do you want? He is a banker by education.

    Well yes, of course it justifies him winked
  • shonsu 14 September 2015 12: 39 New
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    but I believe that the author is not competent. scored phrases from different articles and all. but in fact it also divines on the coffee grounds. the author writes about our oil as if it were sheer evil, and Russia is forced to drag this yoke at a loss. we have oil and gas, and that's great! but it is also necessary to develop industry and the sphere of high technologies and so on. and then cheap oil will not be a burden to us but will become an engine for our industry and agriculture. for some reason nobody thinks about it.
  • loaln 14 September 2015 15: 18 New
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    Zadolbali already moans about oil. We must live within our means, and not look at those who rob the whole world, ride like cheese in oil, screaming, bulging their eyes, about the advantages of a market economy (for the ultimate suckers).
    You need products that are not in the country, work, earn or create a product that is in demand on the world market. And buy what you want. Can't or don't you want? Sopi in two holes and do not envy others. Moreover, do not bark on power. She has her own concerns. She fulfills social obligations to the population, taking her rent from extracted and sold natural resources. The state is not obliged to arrange paradise on Earth for those who do not want to build it.
    Of all, only one is embarrassed. Why so many loans with state guarantees? If this is not done to create a co-competitive production of products for the world market, then, excuse me, this is an ordinary plunder of state funds. Collective. And legalized. Moreover, arrogantly cynical.
  • Governor 14 September 2015 15: 26 New
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    Glazyev is a court clown! Another character that draws attention from the guarantor with its "brilliant ideas and suggestions."
    Energy superpower ... Hahahah! Gas station! Putin has not a single achievement in the economy in 15 years, not one !!!
  • Dan Slav 14 September 2015 15: 29 New
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    It's ridiculous! A barrel of oil is expensive. This was and is, but Russian money is cheap!
    A barrel of oil is a natural product; oil cannot be made without speaking. There will be a surrogate or moonshine. Shale oil is such a product. Plus losses in nature for people what.
    However, oil is traded on exchanges under the slogan: Who to buy cheaper!
    Try to buy something in the store. Will not work. And it is possible on the stock exchange, since this is not a store, but a game, a worthy sweepstake. That oil flows through the pipe, 100 bucks, 100 bucks, 100 bucks, 100 bucks and suddenly bam and 40 !!!
    Something happened? Has transportation, mining, and intelligence become cheaper? No!
    It has become cheaper OIL! What a hangover and a fright! And everyone agreed and download even for this price!
    Even if you agree not to buy a sausage for 600 rubles for the whole region, but to buy it only when it is 200, nothing will come of it!
    And on the stock exchange with speculators goes! They are not processors, not miners, not transporters, they are simply PARASITES on the body of the real economy !!!
    Drive them! And close exchanges!
    BUT!!! And how then to steal all the current elite, all these rich people, politicians, experts, demagogues in power?
    1. mcm
      mcm 14 September 2015 20: 38 New
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      + + + + + + + + + +
    2. namer 14 September 2015 21: 33 New
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      Quote: Dan Slav
      However, oil is traded on exchanges under the slogan: Who to buy cheaper!

      No, it is being traded - who sell is more expensive.
      Tk in your formula for some reason you forgot the seller
      Quote: Dan Slav
      Try to buy something in the store. Will not work

      Will it turn out, or have you never traded in the market?
      Quote: Dan Slav
      Here oil flows through the pipe, 100 bucks, 100 bucks, 100 bucks, 100 bucks and suddenly bam and 40 !!

      Yes, there’s no meat, no meat, no meat - it’s 100 bucks each, and as the whales and meat were soaked in the sea, no one takes 10 laughing
      Quote: Dan Slav
      It has become cheaper OIL! What a hangover and a fright!

      So I say, in the 2000s there was 10 dollars per barrel. and after 8 years - 150, with what a fright?
      Quote: Dan Slav
      Even if you agree not to buy a sausage for 600 rubles for the whole region, but to buy it only when it is 200, nothing will come of it!

      It will turn out if sausages are like dirt, and people like barbecue
      Quote: Dan Slav
      And on the stock exchange with speculators goes!

      What kind of speculators are those who don’t want to sell at 150 and they strive for everything - cheaper - cheaper.
      Maybe speculators - it used to be, but now the price is real?

      Quote: Dan Slav
      they are just parasites on the body of the real economy !!!

      the real economy (in your opinion) is when a barrel for 150, at a production price (as stated by Vatnik) of $ 6?
      That's where speculators sit, and 40, more fair
      Quote: Dan Slav
      BUT!!! And how then to steal all the current elite, all these rich people, politicians, experts, demagogues in power?

      I don’t give a damn, let me even die of hunger.
      The price of oil in general should be like in the 2000s - 10 bucks a barrel.
      I then ran the tank for 20 bass.
  • report4 14 September 2015 18: 01 New
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    Quote: Barboskin
    The fall in prices is still temporary, now the weakest will be removed from the market, and then those same 150-200 per barrel will be trampled. In general, this fall in prices is artificial.

    Probably not. Those wild prices that were a couple of years ago were a typical bubble.
    ~ $ 60-70 at the end of the year to be optimistic.
  • timyr 14 September 2015 18: 44 New
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    In Kazakhstan, gasoline is made from dollars. And not from oil, as some people think.
  • mcm
    mcm 14 September 2015 20: 34 New
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    The fact that Putin has an adviser has changed, the economy has not changed. Even the “direction” of pipes to China, as well as Russia's accession to the WTO, suggests that the Russian economy will remain raw materials.

    - YES ! THOUSAND TIMES YES!
  • Login 15 September 2015 01: 04 New
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    An article by the next singer of the Apocalypse ... and they howl continuously, at any oil prices, at any power, with or without reason ... they are apparently fascinated by the process
    Oh my God! what will happen to the Russians when the price per barrel drops to 20 bucks? ... Nothing ... we, as we know from such articles, have long been "torn to shreds" and starved to death from sanctions, and die twice impossible :)
  • Platon Mironov
    Platon Mironov 15 September 2015 11: 21 New
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    Putin’s main staffing problem is that he appoints loyal to positions, and asks how smart.
    1. anip 15 September 2015 12: 53 New
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      Quote: Plato Mironov
      Putin’s main staffing problem is that he appoints loyal to positions, and asks how smart.

      He does not ask them as smart, he expects work from them as smart, and DOES NOT punish as screwed up mediocrity.
  • srha 15 September 2015 17: 53 New
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    I never heard clearly why the "optimists" for expensive oil?

    Maybe because sellers need expensive oil, and manufacturers need cheap oil?

    Those. those who want to sell Russia more expensive need a darling, and those who want to rebuild, populate, train, make them an advanced technological and scientific power need cheap. Hmm?